上海黄金交易所黄金T+D 7月15日（周二）晚盘收盘下跌0.45%报770.94元/克； 上海黄金交易所白银T+D 7月15日（周二）晚盘收盘下跌0.42%报9117.0元/千克。 黄金延期 白银延期 ...

大宗商品研究所 贵金属研发报告 贵金属衍生品日报 2025 年 7 月 15 日 研究所副所长：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询号：Z0017510 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询号：Z0021675 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 邮箱： wangluchen_qh@chinastock.co m.cn 贵金属衍生品日报 【市场回顾】 1.贵金属市场：今天白天，贵金属横向盘整、回补昨天的部分跌幅。伦敦金当 前交投于 3360 美元附近，伦敦银交投于 38.25 附近。受外盘驱动，沪金主力合约 收涨 0.25%，报 780.4 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 0.52%，报 9225 元/千克。 2.美元指数：美元指数高开后走弱，当前交投于 97.97 附近。 3.美债收益率：10 年美债收益率小幅波动，当前交投于 4.415%附近。 4.人民币汇率：人民币兑美元汇率高位震荡，当前交投于 7.173 附近。 【重要资讯】 1.特朗普政府动向：①特朗普：如果俄罗斯在 50 天内无法达成俄乌冲突协 议，将对俄罗斯征收 10 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various metals and minerals in the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors, including market reviews, important news, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each product. It takes into account factors such as tariffs, supply and demand, and policy changes to evaluate the market trends and potential investment opportunities and risks [3][7][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold closed down 0.36% at $3342.78/ounce, London silver down 0.72% at $38.11/ounce. Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined. The US dollar index was almost flat at 98.035, 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded to 4.426%, and the RMB/USD exchange rate rose 0.03% to 7.1723 [3]. - **Important News**: Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Russia if no Ukraine - Russia conflict agreement is reached in 50 days. The EU plans to impose counter - tariffs on $72 billion of US goods. Fed officials' remarks and interest rate probability expectations were also reported [3]. - **Logical Analysis**: As the tariff negotiation deadline approaches, tariff games intensify. The Fed is in a wait - and - see mode. The market awaits US CPI data. Silver's spot supply is tight due to tax - increase expectations [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider holding long positions against the 5 - day moving average for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Night - session Shanghai copper 2508 contract fell 0.34% to 78020 yuan/ton, LME copper closed down 0.2% at $9643.5/ton. LME and Comex inventories increased [7]. - **Important News**: Multiple tariff - related events were reported. China's June copper imports showed mixed trends. SMM national copper inventory increased [8][9]. - **Logical Analysis**: The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1st. The US' siphoning of global refined copper is nearing an end. LME inventory bottomed out. The price difference structure will converge, and the market is mainly for rigid demand [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: Night - session alumina 2509 contract rose 37 yuan to 3145 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [12]. - **Important News**: Central Finance Commission meeting emphasized market construction. There were domestic spot transactions, changes in warehouse receipts, and production and inventory data [12][14]. - **Logical Analysis**: Alumina production is increasing, but spot circulation is limited. The supply - demand pattern will gradually shift to a surplus, but warehouse receipt demand may support the market [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect alumina prices to fluctuate strongly for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [16]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: Night - session Shanghai aluminum 2508 contract fell 30 yuan/ton to 20405 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions declined [18][21]. - **Important News**: Aluminum ingot inventory increased. There were data on photovoltaic installation, aluminum exports, and financial and trade news [21][22]. - **Trading Logic**: Tariff negotiations are ongoing. Aluminum ingot inventory may have a narrow - range change. The decline in photovoltaic component production may be mitigated [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices may be under pressure in the short - term but not overly pessimistic for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: Night - session cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 10 yuan to 19800 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions declined [28]. - **Important News**: There were data on production, cost, profit, and inventory of cast aluminum alloy [28][29]. - **Trading Logic**: Alloy ingot enterprises face raw material shortages, and downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum alloy futures prices will follow aluminum prices under pressure. Consider arbitrage within a certain price difference range; wait and see for options [30]. Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc fell 0.2% to $2732.5/ton, Shanghai zinc 2508 fell 0.27% to 22145 yuan/ton. Spot prices and trading were reported [32]. - **Important News**: Domestic and LME zinc inventories increased [32]. - **Logical Analysis**: Zinc supply is increasing, demand is in the off - season, and prices may be under pressure [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the given text. Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead fell 0.98% to $2017/ton, Shanghai lead 2508 fell 0.2% to 17070 yuan/ton. Spot prices and trading were reported [36]. - **Important News**: Lead inventory increased, and the average operating rate of primary lead smelters decreased [36]. - **Logical Analysis**: Recycled lead is in a loss, and the supply is hard to increase. Demand is improving marginally [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term lead prices may fluctuate at a high level. High - selling and low - buying in the range for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [38]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel fell 170 to $15065/ton, inventory increased. Shanghai nickel fell 1310 to 119460 yuan/ton. Spot premiums changed [42]. - **Important News**: A Canadian nickel company's exploration results and battery production data were reported [42]. - **Logical Analysis**: The market is worried about US tariffs. Refined nickel has weak supply and demand in the off - season, and prices will fluctuate weakly [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the given text. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2508 contract rose 10 to 12695 yuan/ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were reported [44]. - **Important News**: A stainless steel factory's high - nickel pig iron transaction and a company's production achievement were reported [48]. - **Logical Analysis**: Stainless steel demand is not optimistic, inventory is accumulating, and prices are under pressure [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage [48]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon futures and spot prices rose [50]. - **Important News**: The US launched 232 investigations on drones and polysilicon [50]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Industrial silicon production will decrease in July. Supply and demand may be balanced. Inventory has shifted, and the market is optimistic [50][52]. - **Strategy**: Short - term strength for single - side trading; stop profit for the long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon strategy [53]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: Polysilicon futures rose 0.81% to 41765 yuan/ton. Spot prices declined [55]. - **Important News**: Silicon wafer and battery prices and US investigations were reported [55]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Polysilicon price increases can be passed on to downstream. Futures prices are expected to fluctuate in a certain range. Reduce long positions [56][58]. - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions and participate in short - term trading. Stop profit for the long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon strategy; wait and see for options [59]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract rose 2380 to 66480 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased [61]. - **Important News**: A company obtained a mining license, and a cooperation agreement was signed [61][63]. - **Logical Analysis**: Market concerns led to price increases. Demand is not weak in the off - season. Prices may fluctuate at a high level in the short - term and decline in the long - term [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: Avoid risks in the short - term and wait for short - selling opportunities; wait and see for arbitrage; sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [64].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - No core views are presented in the report. Group 3: Summary by Metal Types Gold (AU) - On July 14, 2025, the closing price of SHFE gold's main contract was 780.40 yuan/gram, a decrease of 1.00 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - The closing price of COMEX gold's main contract was 3352.10 dollars/ounce, a decrease of 18.20 dollars compared to the previous day [1]. - The spot price of London gold was 3357.35 dollars/ounce, an increase of 13.27 dollars compared to the previous day [1]. Silver (AG) - On July 15, 2025, the closing price of SHFE silver's main contract was 9225 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 272 yuan compared to the previous week [1]. - The closing price of COMEX silver's main contract was 38.41 dollars/ounce, a decrease of 0.67 dollars compared to the previous day [1]. - The spot price of London silver was 2.75 dollars/ounce, an increase of 0.13 dollars compared to the previous day [1]. Copper (CU, BC) - On July 15, 2025, the closing price of SHFE copper's main contract was 78090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 310 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - The closing price of LME copper 3M was 9646.00 dollars/ton, a decrease of 27.00 dollars compared to the previous day [1]. - The inventory of SHFE copper's warehouse receipts was 50133 tons, a decrease of 4408 tons compared to the previous day [1]. Aluminum and Alumina (AL, AO) - On July 15, 2025, the closing price of SHFE aluminum's main contract was 20430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - The closing price of alumina's main contract was 3165 yuan/ton, an increase of 305 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - The inventory of SHFE aluminum's warehouse receipts was 22610 tons, a decrease of 69828 tons compared to the previous day [1]. Zinc (ZN) - On July 15, 2025, the closing price of SHFE zinc's main contract was 22085 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - The closing price of LME zinc 3M was 2712 dollars/ton, a decrease of 28 dollars compared to the previous day [1]. - The inventory of SHFE zinc's warehouse receipts was 11184 tons, an increase of 3235 tons compared to the previous day [1]. Lead (PB) - On July 15, 2025, the closing price of SHFE lead's main contract was 16930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - The closing price of LME lead 3M was 1988.50 dollars/ton, a decrease of 59.00 dollars compared to the previous day [1]. - The inventory of SHFE lead's warehouse receipts was 13265 tons, a decrease of 58768 tons compared to the previous day [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel (NI, SS) - On July 15, 2025, the closing price of SHFE nickel's main contract was 119380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 990 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - The closing price of stainless steel's main contract was 12695 yuan/ton, an increase of 215 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - The inventory of SHFE nickel's warehouse receipts was 722 tons, a decrease of 686 tons compared to the previous day [1]. Tin (SN) - On July 15, 2025, the closing price of SHFE tin's main contract was 263240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3480 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - The closing price of LME tin 3M was 33350 dollars/ton, a decrease of 350 dollars compared to the previous day [1]. - The inventory of SHFE tin's warehouse receipts was 242 tons, a decrease of 185 tons compared to the previous day [1].

近日，白银压抑多年的火山终于开始猛烈喷发。7月11日，白银价格直冲上天，其中伦敦白银现货价格上涨3.77%，每盎司价格站上38美元；Comex白银期 货价格上涨4.74%，盘中连破38和39美元两道大关。白银现货和白银期货双双创下14年来新高，年内涨幅突破32%！ 7月14日，白银现货盘中站上39美元/盎司，年内最高涨幅超过35%，远远超过了黄金亮瞎眼的26%，成为今年以来表现最好的大类资产之一！国内期货方 面，沪银主力合约年初至今上涨超22%，从7506元/千克一路高歌猛进到9267元/千克，创造该品种上市以来的最高纪录。 为什么白银涨得这么凶，到底出了什么事？ 其原因跟上半年的黄金大挤兑类似。 如果说黄金市场的实物金与纸黄金的比例高达1:130的话，那么白银的比例是更加惊人的1:250-400，就是一盎司实物白银对应着250-400倍的纸白银。一切 高倍杠杆的市场，死穴就是挤兑。 12月10日是黄金遭遇挤兑的T0时刻，Comex黄金库存突然飙升，说明纽约期货金遭遇了突然出现的大量实物交割需求。春江水暖鸭先知，掌控客户账户交 易信息的黄金做市商开始大规模从伦敦调黄金补库存。 随后，黄金实物挤兑风暴愈演愈烈。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings. Instead, it provides specific investment suggestions for different commodity futures contracts. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by various factors such as US trade policies, liquidity, and geopolitical risks, leading to differentiated trends in different sectors [2]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations, which affect their price trends and investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Indexes have broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, but caution is needed when testing key positions. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase operations may boost bond market sentiment. In the medium - term, the curve strategy recommends paying attention to certain operations [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are in high - level shock, and silver may have further pulse - type increases, but chasing high should be cautious [2]. Industrial Sector - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be in a strong - biased shock, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish on the 08 contract [2]. - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. Arbitrage operations such as long materials and short raw materials can be considered [2]. - **Black Metals**: Market sentiment has improved, and it is recommended to go long on iron ore, coking coal, and coke at low prices [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The US inventory replenishment has ended. For copper, pay attention to the support level; for aluminum and its alloys, the macro uncertainty is increasing, and the spot market is in a weak season [2]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Energy**: Oil prices are likely to be in a strong - biased shock. For different chemical products, due to different supply - demand situations, various investment strategies such as waiting and seeing, long - short operations, and attention to price ranges are recommended [2]. Agricultural Sector - Different agricultural products have different price trends. For example, palm oil is strong, while sugar is recommended for short - selling on rebounds. Each product has specific price ranges and investment suggestions [2]. Special and New Energy Sectors - Special commodities such as glass and rubber are affected by macro - atmosphere. For new energy products like polysilicon and lithium carbonate, due to various factors, it is generally recommended to wait and see [2].

7 月以来，国际黄金市场上演剧烈震荡。中国人民银行最新数据显示，截至 6 月末我国黄金储备连续第 8 个月增持，总量达 7390 万盎司，而伦敦 金现上半年累计涨幅却高达 25.84%，但 4 月中下旬后从 3500 美元 / 盎司的历史高位回落至 3300 美元附近。这种 "央行囤金" 与 "市场回调" 的背 离，折射出美联储加息预期下的复杂博弈。 一、美联储政策转向：黄金市场的 "晴雨表" 6 月 18 日和讯网分析指出，美联储加息会推高美元资产收益率，导致黄金作为无息资产的吸引力下降。这一逻辑在 2025 年二季度得到验证：随 着美联储暗示可能延续加息路径，黄金市场出现明显资金外流。然而这种影响并非单向 —— 当市场担忧加息无法抑制通胀时，黄金的抗通胀属性 又会重新凸显。当前金银比高达 91:1，显著偏离 40-70:1 的历史均值，这种极端分化往往预示着白银等贵金属的补涨机会。 从数据层面看，7 月 15 日国内实物黄金价格普遍突破 1000 元 / 克关口，周生生品牌金价达 1012 元 / 克，单日涨幅 0.2%。这种 "高金价" 现象既 反映市场对地缘风险的定价，也暗含投资者对美联储三季度降息的 ...

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 15 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 美国总统推出更多关税措施特别是对欧盟和加拿大对等关税税率定于 30%， 关税武器化程度加剧提振黄金的避险需求，但美元指数走强对贵金属有抑制作用， 伦敦黄金小幅上行至 3370 美元/盎司附近；7 月中旬以来投机资金再次拉升白银 至 39 美元/盎司上方，目前伦敦金银比值已经回落到 86，年内白银涨幅 35%远超 黄金的 28%，但上海白银相对滞涨。特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局重组进入 乱纪元模式，黄金的避险需求得到极大提振；目前看黄金波 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has shown a significant dulling in its reaction to negative news, with trading volume and sentiment remaining strong. The "asset shortage" and "national team" support have increased the willingness to allocate to equity assets, while "anti - involution" and real estate policy expectations have boosted market sentiment. However, due to the lack of substantial positive factors at home and abroad and the reduced discount advantage of stock index futures, it is advisable to be cautious about chasing the rise in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.42%, up 8.13bp; DR007 at 1.54%, up 6.42bp; GC001 at 1.49%, up 14.00bp; GC007 at 1.56%, up 5.50bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.56%, up 0.40bp; LPR 5 - year at 3.50%, unchanged; 1 - year treasury at 1.37%, unchanged; 5 - year treasury at 1.52%, up 0.25bp; 10 - year treasury at 1.67%, unchanged; 10 - year US treasury at 4.43%, up 8.00bp [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 2262 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 1065 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net daily injection was 1197 billion yuan. This week, 4257 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 1000 billion yuan of MLF will mature on July 15 [3][4]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market - **Stock Index Futures**: IF volume was 80048, down 51.0; IF open interest was 263468, down 6.8; IH volume was 41336, down 54.4; IH open interest was down 13.2; IC volume was 66406, down 46.3; IC open interest was 227301, down 6.1; IM volume was 132782, down 50.4; IM open interest was 326601, down 8.0. The premium and discount rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts in different periods are also provided [5][8]. - **Stock Index Spot**: The CSI 300 rose 0.07% to 4017.7; the SSE 50 rose 0.04% to 2757.8; the CSI 500 fell 0.1% to 6020.9; the CSI 1000 rose 0.02% to 6462.3. The trading volume of the two markets was 14588 billion yuan, a decrease of 2534 billion yuan from last Friday. Industry sectors were mostly up, with precious metals, energy metals, etc. leading the gains, and diversified finance, gaming, etc. leading the losses [6]. 3.3 Export Data - China's exports in June increased by 5.8% year - on - year in US dollars, up from 4.8% in the previous period. During the Sino - US "reciprocal tariff" suspension period in June, Sino - US foreign trade recovered significantly, with exports to the US improving by 32.44% month - on - month to 381.7 billion US dollars, and the proportion in total exports rising from 9.12% in May to 11.74%. Exports to Africa also had a good performance. However, with the implementation of reciprocal tariff measures in August, Sino - US trade may face challenges [6].

1. Report Summary - The report provides a morning briefing on metal option strategies, covering various metal options including non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and black metals. It includes market overviews, option factor analyses, and strategy recommendations for each metal option [2]. 2. Core Views - For non - ferrous metals, which are in a state of shock and decline, a seller's neutral volatility strategy is recommended; black metals are in a range - bound consolidation phase, suitable for constructing a seller's option neutral combination strategy; precious metals like gold are in a high - level consolidation with a weak decline, suggesting a spot hedging strategy [2]. 3. Specific Summaries by Category 3.1 Market Overview of Underlying Futures - The report details the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various metal futures contracts such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. For example, the latest price of copper (CU2508) is 78,020, with a decline of 270 and a decline rate of 0.34% [3]. 3.2 Option Factor Analysis 3.2.1 Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of each metal option are presented, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively. For instance, the open interest PCR of copper options is 0.60, with a change of - 0.01 [4]. 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of each metal option are analyzed from the perspective of the exercise prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of copper is 82,000, and the support level is 78,000 [5]. 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The report shows the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes, annual average, call and put implied volatilities, historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatilities of each metal option. For example, the weighted implied volatility of copper is 17.19%, with a change of - 0.35% [6]. 3.3 Strategy Recommendations 3.3.1 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper Options**: Based on fundamental and market analysis, the strategy includes constructing a short - volatility seller's option combination strategy and a spot long - position hedging strategy [8]. - **Aluminum/Alumina Options**: Recommendations are a call option bull spread strategy, a short - position call + put option combination strategy, and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Zinc/Lead Options**: A short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy are suggested [9]. - **Nickel Options**: A short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - position hedging strategy are recommended [10]. - **Tin Options**: A short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy are proposed [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate Options**: A short - bullish call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - position covered call strategy are recommended [11]. 3.3.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver Options**: A short - bullish short - volatility option seller's combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy are suggested [12]. 3.3.3 Black Metals - **Rebar Options**: A short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - position covered call strategy are recommended [13]. - **Iron Ore Options**: A short - bullish call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - position collar strategy are suggested [13]. - **Ferroalloy Options**: A short - volatility strategy for manganese silicon options is proposed, and for industrial silicon/polysilicon options, a call option bull spread strategy, a short - bullish call + put option combination strategy, and a spot hedging strategy are recommended [14]. - **Glass Options**: A short - volatility short - call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - position collar strategy are recommended [15].