Economic Outlook - Global economic growth is projected to decline from 3.2% to 2.7% in 2025 if new tariffs are implemented by the US [1][7] - The US economy is expected to slow down to 2.4% growth in 2025 from 2.8% in the previous year [1][7] - The Eurozone is forecasted to achieve only 1% growth in 2025, with Germany facing stagnation or a slight recession [1][7] Trade and Tariffs - New tariffs proposed by the US could significantly impact global trade, with potential tariffs of 60% on Chinese imports and 10-25% on imports from other countries [13][15] - The tariffs are expected to reduce global GDP by approximately 0.3% to 0.5% by 2026, with a notable decrease in global imports and exports by around 4% [18] - Germany, as an export-oriented economy, could see its GDP reduced by 0.4% in 2025 due to these trade restrictions [18] Monetary Policy - Central banks are facing challenges, with the Federal Reserve expected to maintain interest rates around 4% while the European Central Bank plans further cuts [2][7] - Diverging financial policies are affecting exchange rates, leading to a stronger US dollar against the euro and yen [2][7] Investment Environment - High interest rates are suppressing investment levels, particularly in construction and equipment, despite a recovery in consumer demand [2][3] - Emerging markets, especially in Asia, are showing stronger industrial production growth compared to regions like Africa and the Middle East [2][3] Consumer Behavior - In the US, consumer confidence remains low despite rising wages, with spending not increasing as expected due to inflationary pressures [3][4] - In Europe, countries like France and Italy are facing fiscal challenges that could hinder economic growth [3][4] Structural Challenges - The global economy is experiencing a complex recovery, with governments needing to balance economic stimulus and debt control [4] - Political uncertainties, particularly in the US and Europe, are complicating long-term economic planning for businesses [3][4]

智通财经APP获悉，汇丰发布研报称，2025年一季度A股盈利同比增长3.8%，材料(+40.3%)和信息技术(+24.7%)板块领涨，成长风格持续跑赢市 场。基于AI渗透率提升、全球化贸易突破及周期性行业复苏三大投资主题，重点推荐小米集团-W(01810)、深信服(300454.SZ)、掌趣科技 (300315.SZ)、和铂医药-B(02142)、立讯精密(002475.SZ)、安克创新(300866.SZ)、巨星科技(002444.SZ)、苏州银行(002966.SZ)、珀莱雅 (603605.SH)、顺丰控股(002352.SZ)等10只买入评级股票。 汇丰主要观点如下： 汇丰重点关注三大投资主题：人工智能(AI)、全球化、周期性复苏 2025 年一季度 A 股盈利同比增长 3.8%，材料和信息技术板块领涨成长风格预计将继续跑赢市场，2025 年一季度和 2024 年的盈利增长强劲支撑这 一趋势。 2025 年一季度及 2024 年业绩关键要点： 2025 年一季度 A 股盈利同比增长 3.8%，但 2024 年同比下降 2.3%; 分行业来看，2025 年一季度材料(+40.3%，有色金属和钢铁价格回升 ...

Core Insights - The market consensus remains fragmented despite the easing of US-China tariffs, with various funds showing interest in different sectors such as dividends, themes, large-cap growth, and export chains [1][2] - Active foreign capital has seen a net outflow, while passive foreign capital continues to flow into the A-share market, indicating a structural divergence in foreign investment [3][56] - Industrial capital is providing support to the A-share market, with significant increases in share buybacks compared to the previous year [4][65] Group 1: Fund Allocation and Market Dynamics - Retail investors have shown a preference for defensive dividend stocks, with net inflows into banking and transportation sectors, while experiencing outflows from electronics and machinery [2][11] - Financing funds are focusing on industries with improving fundamentals and thematic catalysts, such as defense and military [2][19] - Private equity funds are concentrating their research on large-cap growth sectors like pharmaceuticals and electronics [2][50] Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - In the recent period, foreign capital saw a net inflow of 21.8 billion yuan, with active foreign capital experiencing a net outflow of 7.2 billion yuan, while passive foreign capital recorded a net inflow of 29 billion yuan [3][56] - Regional and global allocation-type foreign funds have increased their positions in A-shares, with Asian allocation funds reaching 89% of their levels since 2020 [3][56] Group 3: Industrial Capital and Market Support - The A-share market has faced four consecutive weeks of net outflows from ETFs, totaling 263 billion yuan, with significant support from industrial capital through share buybacks [4][41] - The average weekly buyback amount in 2025 has risen to 68 billion yuan, compared to 43 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a strong trend in corporate buybacks [4][71] Group 4: Fundraising and Market Activity - The number of new equity funds launched has decreased, with only 48 billion yuan in new equity fund shares issued last week, reflecting a decline in fundraising activity [32][33] - The net reduction of significant shareholders in the secondary market amounted to 43 billion yuan, with a weekly unlock market value of 306 billion yuan [65][74]

Core Insights - Tianjin's Industrial and Information Technology Bureau is actively promoting special re-loan projects for technological transformation and equipment updates in the industrial sector, with over 29 billion yuan in loan contracts signed from previous applications, leading to a 54.8% year-on-year increase in industrial equipment investment in Q1 [1] - The bureau is collaborating with 22 banks and local industrial departments to enhance the application process for these special loans, providing detailed policy interpretations and arrangements for project submissions [1] - The city is focusing on key industries such as machinery, chemicals, automotive, steel, and light industry to accelerate the construction of significant equipment update projects [1] Policy Promotion - Tianjin is intensifying efforts to communicate national and local policies regarding industrial equipment updates and technological transformations through a series of workshops and seminars, reaching over 500 enterprises [2] - The approach includes a comprehensive service model that combines policy interpretation, case analysis, and on-site Q&A to ensure effective implementation of policies [2] - The bureau is also organizing supply-demand matching activities focused on high-end equipment and consumer products to enhance collaboration within the industrial supply chain [2]

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 与此同时，在政策的支持与鼓励下，注销式回购也逐渐成为上市公司优化股权结构、提升公司价值的重要手段。 多名受访人士认为，上市公司回购股份的行为，既能向市场传递股价被低估的信号、增强投资者信心，又能优化 公司股本结构、提高治理水平，是公司实现价值提升的重要途径。随着资本市场的发展，上市公司对回购的认识 和运用也将更加成熟，未来回购热潮有望持续。 银行专项贷支持回购 近段时间以来，A股市场持续传递出积极向好的信号，多家上市公司连续不断地发布大规模的股票回购计划公 告，向外界传递出积极的信号。这一市场行为，不仅为投资者注入了一针强心剂，也为整个资本市场的稳定奠定 了坚实基础。 近日，时创能源对外发布了回购报告书，公司拟使用自有及自筹资金以不超过21.33元/股回购股份，回购股份金 额为3000万元至6000万元。同时，公司已收到兴业银行股份有限公司常州分行出具的《贷款承诺函》，该行承诺 提供贷款额度不超过人民币5000万元的股票回购专项贷款。 无独有偶，同日盛景微也发布公告称，公司董事会第九次会议审议通过了《关于以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股 份方案的议案》。本次回购的 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious view on the market with a focus on small-cap stocks as a preferred investment style [1][12]. Core Insights - The A-share market continued to show volatility with a contraction in trading volume, leading to a cautious sentiment in the market. The liquidity remains loose, favoring small-cap stocks, and a "dividend + small-cap" strategy is suggested for relative returns [1][12]. - Major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.76% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.38%, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 experienced slight declines [1][13]. Summary by Sections Overall Market Performance - The report covers the performance of major indices from May 12 to May 16, 2025, highlighting a mixed outcome with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.76% and the ChiNext Index up by 1.38% [1][13]. - The report notes that the liquidity environment remains favorable for small-cap stocks, which are expected to continue outperforming [1][12]. Industry Valuation - As of May 16, 2025, the report categorizes the valuation of major indices as "moderate," while the ChiNext Index is classified as "safe." Specific industries such as non-bank financials, transportation, and utilities are also rated as "safe" [1][18][19]. Fund Flow Tracking - The report indicates that institutional interest was highest in stocks like Anji Technology and Hengda, with significant net outflows from ETFs, particularly in the stock-type ETFs [3][56]. - The report highlights that southbound capital saw a net outflow of 86.85 billion HKD during the tracking period [3][56]. Volatility Analysis - The report discusses the cross-sectional volatility of major indices, noting a decrease in the cross-sectional volatility of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, indicating a deterioration in the short-term alpha environment [2][37]. - Time series volatility for the CSI 300 increased, suggesting an improvement in the alpha environment, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 saw declines [2][41].

行情回顾 本周板块表现：上周（2025/05/12-2025/05/16）5 个交易日，SW 机械设备指数上涨 0.35%，在申万 31 个一级行 业分类中排名第 18；同期沪深 300 指数上涨 1.12%。2025 年至今表现：SW 机械设备指数上涨 9.47%，在申万 31 个一级行业分类中排名第 3；同期沪深 300 指数下跌 1.16%。 核心观点 投资建议 见"股票组合"。 风险提示 宏观经济变化风险；原材料价格波动风险；政策变化的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 两机景气上行+国产化提速，看好应流股份订单高增。全球 AI 数据中心扩张带动燃机需求上行，2024-2026 年 全球燃机年均销量均值预计为 60GW，较 23 年的 44.1GW 提升 36%，增长加速。此外，近期"两机"国产化加速 推进，燃机方面，近期应流股份承担的某型重型燃气轮机透平第二级动叶铸件通过首件鉴定，标志着国家燃气 轮机重大专项取得又一阶段性成果。航空发动机方面，4 月，我国完全自研的 AG600 飞机获颁中国民航局型号 合格证，标志着全球起飞重量最大的民用水陆两栖飞机通过了严格测试和验证。公司是国内"两机"叶片龙 头， ...

证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2025 年 05 月 18 日 马斯克确认 Robotaxi 白天出租晚上货运模式 人形机器人周报 20250518 中游制造/机械 事件 1：Skild AI 单轮融资 5 亿美元 据知悉融资谈判的人士透露，开发人工智能基础模型以操控多种机器人的 Skild AI，即将以 42 亿美元估值（不含本轮投资额）完成 5 亿美元融资。随着机器人 热潮升温，Skild AI 轮融资估值水涨船高。消息称，软银领投本轮融资，光速创 投、红杉资本、CRV 和 General Catalyst 跟投。Skild 的 AI 基础模型，能指挥 机器狗和双足人形机器人完成从家务到仓库劳动等实体任务。该公司也在向硬 件领域扩张，计划用本轮融资资金制造更多机器人。这些机器人一旦建成，将 有助于收集更多数据来优化其 AI 模型。 事件 2：华为与优必选签署合作协议，推动人形机器人工业与家庭场 景落地 华为与优必选科技在深圳正式签署全面合作协议。双方将围绕具身智能和人形 机器人领域，在产品技术研发、场景应用及产业体系等开展创新合作。协议约 定，双方将通过发挥华为昇腾、鲲鹏、华为云及大模型等能力与华为在研 ...

金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 市场形态周报（20250512-20250516） 本周指数涨跌不一 本周市场回顾与最新信号 从本周的指数表现来看，本周指数涨跌不一，其中沪深 300 上涨 1.12%，中证 500 下跌 0.1%，中证 1000 下跌 0.23%。 当前，上证 50 的隐含波动率为 12.37%，相对于上周上涨了 0.71%。上证 500 的隐含波动率为 16.25%，相对于上周下跌了 0.4%。中证 1000 的隐含波动率 为 19.61%，相对于上周下跌了 0.06%。沪深 300 的隐含波动率为 13.37%，相 对于上周上涨了 0.49%。 我们统计了最近信号的次数和胜率。2025 年 4 月 30 日到 2025 年 5 月 9 日正 面信号共出现了 3465 次，未来高点平均胜率为 59.95%，负面信号出现 2996 次，未来低点平均胜率为 37.32%。 从宽基择时策略来看，上证 50、恒生可持续发展企业指数出现看多信号，其 余宽基信号为中性。 从行业形态择时策略来看，商贸零售、家电、纺织服装、电力及公用事业、消 费者服务、交通运输、银行出现看多信号，其余行业信号为中性。 ...

2025 年 05 月 18 日 主力资金有效性持续修复，景气预期超额收益开 始抬头 —行业和风格因子跟踪报告 投资要点 ▌ 行业因子最新变动情况 上周 3400 得而复失，回调后仍站上 3350。我们最新推荐 的非银行业收益亮眼。因子角度来看近期市场热点受事件 驱动影响较大，分析师短期预期表现更好，也能抓住非银 的反弹行情。此外市场资金驱动特征明显，主力资金因子 多头的非银、汽车领涨市场。动量反转层面处于反转因子 和短端动量的交接时刻，可以提前关注短期动量有效性的 回升。财报质量因子继续偏向成长口径，景气投资思路有 效性开始小幅回升。 整体看行业轮动因子指向内需成长板块：大盘成交金额持 续在 1.1 万亿以上，主题投资和景气投资均有反弹，主力 资金因子反弹延续，本期主力资金因子行业选择电子、电 力设备及新能源、医药、机械、有色金属、非银行金融。 长期分析师预期非银行金融、建材、交通运输、电力及公 用事业、有色金属，空头无意义。短期分析师预期指向农 林牧渔、消费者服务、非银行金融、机械、有色金属。本 期选择行业继续偏向内需中的成长，继续关注低位消费短 期反弹机会。 ▌ 定量行业推荐 基于权重分配，我们推荐内资 ...