证券之星消息，12月18日橡胶板块较上一交易日下跌0.86%，科创新源领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3876.37，上涨0.16%。深证成指报收于13053.98，下跌1.29%。橡胶板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日橡胶板块主力资金净流入1.14亿元，游资资金净流入4.21亿元，散户资金净流 出5.35亿元。橡胶板块个股资金流向见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 ...

Agricultural Products Market - The national market price of edible agricultural products increased by 0.7% from the previous week, while production material prices rose by 0.1% [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables reached 6.03 yuan per kilogram, up by 1.3%, with notable increases in eggplant (8.4%), tomato (7.5%), and winter melon (5.8%) [1] - The average wholesale price of six types of fruits saw a slight increase, with watermelon, banana, and grape rising by 4.3%, 3.1%, and 0.8% respectively [1] - Poultry product prices experienced minor increases, with white-feathered chicken and eggs rising by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices of aquatic products remained stable, with slight increases in certain fish types, while others saw minor declines [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with rice, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil increasing by 0.2%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively, while peanut oil decreased by 0.2% [1] - Meat wholesale prices saw a slight decline, with pork priced at 18.00 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.2%, and lamb and beef decreasing by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively [1] Production Material Market - Basic chemical raw material prices experienced a slight increase, with sulfuric acid rising by 1.7%, while methanol, soda ash, and polypropylene saw declines of 0.5%, 0.3%, and 0.3% respectively [2] - Prices of non-ferrous metals predominantly increased, with copper and zinc rising by 1.4% and 0.8%, while aluminum decreased by 0.3% [2] - Rubber prices showed slight increases, with natural rubber and synthetic rubber rising by 0.9% and 0.1% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices experienced minor fluctuations, with compound fertilizer increasing by 0.3% and urea decreasing by 0.1% [2] - Coal prices saw slight declines, with coking coal, thermal coal, and anthracite priced at 1061 yuan, 783 yuan, and 1164 yuan per ton, down by 0.7%, 0.3%, and 0.2% respectively [2] - Steel prices generally decreased, with rebar, high-speed wire rod, and hot-rolled strip priced at 3354 yuan, 3545 yuan, and 3505 yuan per ton, down by 0.5%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively [2] - Wholesale prices of refined oil showed slight declines, with 0 diesel, 92 gasoline, and 95 gasoline decreasing by 0.6%, 0.2%, and 0.2% respectively [2]

Price Trends Overview - National production material market prices increased by 0.1% from December 8 to 14 compared to the previous week [1] Chemical Raw Materials - Basic chemical raw material prices saw a slight increase, with sulfuric acid rising by 1.7%, while methanol, soda ash, and polypropylene decreased by 0.5%, 0.3%, and 0.3% respectively [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Prices of non-ferrous metals predominantly increased, with copper and zinc rising by 1.4% and 0.8% respectively, while aluminum decreased by 0.3% [1] Rubber Prices - Rubber prices experienced a slight increase, with natural rubber and synthetic rubber rising by 0.9% and 0.1% respectively [2] Fertilizer Prices - Fertilizer prices showed minor fluctuations, with compound fertilizer increasing by 0.3% and urea decreasing by 0.1% [3] Coal Prices - Coal prices saw a slight decline, with coking coal, thermal coal, and anthracite coal priced at 1061 yuan, 783 yuan, and 1164 yuan per ton, decreasing by 0.7%, 0.3%, and 0.2% respectively [3] Steel Prices - Overall steel prices decreased, with rebar, high-speed wire rod, and hot-rolled strip priced at 3354 yuan, 3545 yuan, and 3505 yuan per ton, declining by 0.5%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively [3] Refined Oil Prices - Wholesale prices of refined oil slightly decreased, with 0 diesel, 92 gasoline, and 95 gasoline dropping by 0.6%, 0.2%, and 0.2% respectively [4]

化工日报 | 2025-12-18 天然橡胶社会库存环比继续回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15390元/吨，较前一日变动+220元/吨；NR主力合约12570元/吨，较前一日变动+185 元/吨；BR主力合约11160元/吨，较前一日变动+230元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15050元/吨，较前一日变动+150元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14650元/吨，较前 一日变动+200元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1850美元/吨，较前一日变动+15美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶 1780美元/吨，较前一日变动+25美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10900元/吨，较前一日变动+200元/吨。 浙江传化BR9000市场价10950元/吨，较前一日变动+300元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年11月份，重卡销量11.3万辆，同比大增65%，收获同比"8连增"的同时，还创造了今年重卡市场最高月销量。 据中国汽车工业协会发布的最新数据显示，11月，我国汽车产销量分别完成353.2万辆和342.9万辆，环比分别增长 5.1%和3.2%，同比分别增长2.8%和3.4%。月度产量首次 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report's industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For selected varieties in each sector, the report provides option strategies and suggestions based on the analysis of the underlying asset market, option factor research, and option strategy recommendations [10]. - The general strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Underlying Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical option underlying futures contracts such as crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2602) is 427, with a price increase of 3 and a price change percentage of 0.73%, trading volume of 9.47 million lots, volume change of 4.62 million lots, open interest of 3.91 million lots, and open interest change of 0.45 million lots [5]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume - to - Open - Interest PCR - The report shows the trading volume, volume change, open interest, open interest change, trading volume PCR, volume PCR change, open interest PCR, and open interest PCR change of various option varieties. For instance, the trading volume PCR of crude oil is 0.88, with a change of 0.05, and the open interest PCR is 0.73, with a change of - 0.05 [6]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - It provides the pressure points, pressure point offsets, support points, support point offsets, maximum call option open interests, and maximum put option open interests of various option varieties. For example, the pressure point of crude oil is 540 with an offset of 0, and the support point is 400 with an offset of - 40 [7]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The report lists the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average implied volatility, call option implied volatility, put option implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatilities of various option varieties. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 24.75%, and the weighted implied volatility is 27.19% with a change of 0.34% [8]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions for Different Varieties 3.5.1 Energy Options: Crude Oil - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The demand of US refineries has stabilized and rebounded. During the recent decline in oil prices, shale oil production has changed little. Refineries have strengthened the diesel output rate due to arbitrage demand, and the overall on - balance - sheet inventory remains healthy. OPEC's short - term supply is flat, Libya's exports have recovered rapidly, CPC Terminal's exports remain weak, and Russia's exports are not hindered. The crude oil market showed a weak trend in December after a rebound in November [9]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of crude oil options fluctuates below the average, the option open interest PCR is below 0.70, indicating a weak market, and the pressure point is 540 and the support point is 430 [9]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a bear spread strategy of put options for directional gains; construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time value and directional gains, and dynamically adjust the positions to keep the delta short; construct a long collar strategy for spot long - hedging [9]. 3.5.2 Energy Options: LPG - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The number of LPG warehouse receipts has increased slightly this week. The supply side has seen a slight increase in the arrival volume, and port inventory has accumulated. On the chemical demand side, the start - up rate of PDH has increased this week, but there are rumors of maintenance plans, and the demand is weakening. The LPG market showed a weak and volatile downward trend in December [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of LPG options fluctuates around the average, the option open interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating a weak market, and the pressure point is 4500 and the support point is 4000 [11]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a bear spread strategy of put options for directional gains; construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time value and directional gains, and dynamically adjust the positions to keep the delta short; construct a long collar strategy for spot long - hedging [11]. 3.5.3 Alcohol Options: Methanol - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Last week's inventory was 123.44 million tons, a decrease of 11.5 million tons from the previous period. The inventory of production enterprises is 35.28 million tons, a decrease of 0.87 million tons month - on - month, and at a low level year - on - year. The methanol market showed a weak trend with a rebound and then a decline [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of methanol options fluctuates around the historical average, the option open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weak market, and the pressure point is 2300 and the support point is 2000 [11]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a bear spread strategy of put options for directional gains; construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time value and keep the delta short; construct a long collar strategy for spot long - hedging [11]. 3.5.4 Other Varieties - Similar analysis and strategy recommendations are provided for other varieties such as ethylene glycol, PVC, rubber, PTA, caustic soda, soda ash, and urea, including underlying market analysis, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions [12][13][14][15].

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-18 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡企稳 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡企稳 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 --------------------------------------- ...

原油 2025/12/18 原油 能源化工组 能源化工日报 2025-12-18 利多兑现后盘面再度陷入短期盘整，港口倒流叠加转口船发货带来港口库存进一步去化。后续 来看，进口到港仍将处于高位，而港口烯烃装置存检修预期，后续港口压力仍在，目前港口绝 对库存水平依旧较高。供应端企业利润回落到中性位置，开工维持同期高位，整体供应高位。 随着利多的兑现，盘面仍将回归现实逻辑，甲醇基本面仍有一定压力，预计低位整理为主，策 略方面单边建议观望。 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 柴油库存去库 0.39 百万桶至 3.19 百万桶，环比去库 10.91%；燃料油库存累库 1.55 百万桶至 13.79 百万桶，环比累库 12.62%；总成品油累库 0.89 百万桶至 23.93 百万桶，环比累库 3.88%。 燃料油收涨 20.00 元/吨，涨幅 0.84%，报 2415.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 36.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.22%，报 2905.00 元/吨。 富查伊拉港口油品周度数据出炉，汽油库存去库 0. ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The global silver market is experiencing a historic surge, with spot silver prices recently breaking through $65 and $66 per ounce, approaching $67 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of approximately 130%, which is double the increase in gold futures [1][2] - Factors contributing to this surge include supply-demand imbalance, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and increased capital inflow [1][2] - The Federal Reserve has room for further rate cuts of 50 to 100 basis points, as indicated by Governor Waller, due to a weakening job market and controlled inflation [1][5] Group 2: Key Commodities - **Silver**: The price of silver has reached new historical highs, supported by a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a $40 billion reserve management purchase, which improves market liquidity and boosts risk appetite [2][16] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market for coking coal remains stable, with slight increases in construction and hot-rolled steel production. However, there is a downward trend in iron production, and the market is expected to stabilize due to seasonal demand [2][21] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass production is in a phase of inventory digestion, with a decrease in glass inventory and a slight increase in soda ash inventory. The market is closely monitoring potential changes in industry operations [3][15] Group 3: Financial Market Trends - The U.S. stock indices experienced significant declines, with the S&P 500 dropping by 1.16%. However, the A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend supported by policy and capital flow [8] - The bond market saw a general increase, with the 10-year treasury yield falling to 1.8425%, indicating a continued loose monetary policy environment [9][10] Group 4: International and Domestic News - Internationally, the Federal Reserve's policy direction indicates a likelihood of maintaining interest rates in January, with a 77% probability of no change and a 21% chance of a 25 basis point cut [5] - Domestically, the Ministry of Finance reported a slight increase in public budget revenue, with tax revenue growing by 1.8% year-on-year [6]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Hainan Free Trade Port and its full closure starting December 18 will create significant opportunities for various industries, particularly in manufacturing and new materials, by implementing favorable tax policies such as "zero tariffs" for certain imported goods [2][3]. Group 1: Hainan Free Trade Port Overview - The full closure of Hainan Island will create a special customs supervision area, allowing for a series of liberalized policies that facilitate trade with foreign countries while managing imports from the mainland [2]. - The "zero tariff" policy will apply to certain goods imported into Hainan, significantly reducing costs for manufacturing enterprises that require large amounts of equipment and raw materials [2][3]. Group 2: Tax Policies and Economic Impact - The processing value-added exemption from import duties applies to goods produced by encouraged industries that either do not contain imported materials or have over 30% value added from processing in Hainan [3]. - The total value of goods sold domestically under the processing value-added exemption has exceeded 10 billion yuan, with over 800 million yuan in import duties exempted, enhancing the competitiveness of Hainan's manufacturing sector [3]. Group 3: Expansion of Zero Tariff Goods - The range of goods eligible for the "zero tariff" policy has expanded significantly from over 1,900 items to more than 6,600 items, increasing the proportion of zero-tariff goods from 21% to 74% of all tariff items [3]. Group 4: Benefiting Industries - The petrochemical new materials industry in Hainan is highlighted as a key beneficiary, with a historical high output value projected for 2024 and consistent double-digit growth over the past four years [4]. - The Hainan government is promoting a complete industrial chain from upstream exploration and development to downstream new materials production, focusing on olefins, aromatics, and natural gas [4]. Group 5: Key Enterprises in Hainan - The top enterprises in Hainan's manufacturing sector for 2024 include China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) Hainan Refining & Chemical Co., with a projected revenue of 7.89 billion yuan, followed by Hainan Natural Rubber Industry Group Co. and Hainan Yisheng Petrochemical Co. [6][7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Supply is abundant and production profits are high, but downstream price - pressing is firm, resulting in high pressure on spot market sales. It is expected that the inventories of both production enterprises and trading enterprises will increase slightly in the short term [2]. - The resumption of production by previously - shut - down enterprises drove the week - on - week increase in the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week. Entering the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises is slow, and most enterprises are in a state of flexible production control, limiting the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. As the finished product inventory continues to rise, some enterprises may conduct maintenance or reduce production in the later stage [2]. - The short - term forecast for the br2602 contract is to fluctuate in the range of 10,600 - 11,300 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,160 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 230 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 105,416, with a week - on - week increase of 4,360 [2]. - The synthetic rubber 2 - 3 spread is - 10 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 4,560 tons, with no change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 10,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; and that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 10,950 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 130 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 35 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is at 58.92 US dollars/barrel, down 1.64 US dollars; WTI crude oil is at 55.27 US dollars/barrel, down 1.55 US dollars [2]. - Naphtha CFR Japan is at 535.63 US dollars/ton, down 10.12 US dollars/ton; the Northeast Asian ethylene price is 745 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR China butadiene price is 870 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 7,850 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton [2]. - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.93 tons, unchanged; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 71.17%, up 0.77 percentage points [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene is 35,900 tons, down 5,200 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 55.9%, down 0.21 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.01 tons, down 0.75 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 70.69%, down 2.84 percentage points; the weekly production profit is 349 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton [2]. - The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.2 tons, down 0.03 tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory is 26,500 tons, down 600 tons; the weekly trader inventory is 5,450 tons, up 220 tons [2]. - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 71.57%, up 0.65 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 64.07%, up 0.57 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1.301 million pieces, up 59,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5.831 million pieces, up 663,000 pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 40.58 days, up 1.07 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.51 days, up 0.56 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, up 1.81 percentage points week - on - week and down 8.49 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, up 0.55 percentage points week - on - week and up 6.07 percentage points year - on - year. The resumption of production by previously - shut - down enterprises drove the capacity utilization rate [2]. - In November, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber output was 13.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.75 tons (- 5.44%) and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate was 68.13%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.27 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.53 percentage points [2]. - As of December 11, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 3.20 tons, a decrease of 0.03 tons (- 1.18%) from the previous period. The inventory of some previously - shut - down production enterprises decreased significantly last week, but most production enterprises still faced high shipment pressure, and the overall inventory of production enterprises decreased slightly. Due to the continued price - pressing by downstream terminals, the shipment of traders was slow, and the inventory of trading enterprises increased slightly [2].