1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each sector, option strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties. Each option variety's strategy report includes an analysis of the underlying asset's market, research on option factors, and option strategy recommendations [8]. - The overall strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - **Price and Volume Changes**: The report provides the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy and chemical futures contracts, such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, and others [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - **PCR Indicators**: The volume PCR and open interest PCR of various option varieties are presented. These indicators are used to describe the strength of the option underlying asset's market and the turning point of the underlying asset's market, respectively [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - **Pressure and Support Points**: The pressure points, support points, and their offsets, as well as the maximum open interests of call and put options, are provided for each option variety. These points are determined based on the strike prices with the maximum open interests of call and put options [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - **Volatility Metrics**: The report includes the at-the-money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, change in weighted implied volatility, annual average implied volatility, call and put implied volatilities, historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatilities for each option variety [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.5.1 Energy - Crude Oil - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ increased oil supply in July, and the US supply rebounded with rising oil prices [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Crude oil prices showed a short - term weak market trend, rising first and then falling [7]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuated around the mean, the open interest PCR was below 0.80, indicating increasing short - term bearish power, with a pressure level of 500 and a support level of 510 [7]. - **Strategies**: For volatility, construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy; for spot hedging, construct a long collar strategy [7]. 3.5.2 Energy - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Fundamentals**: Global supply divergence decreased, but there were uncertainties in demand, and PDH profit recovery might support the operating rate [9]. - **Market Analysis**: LPG showed a short - term bearish market trend, with wide - range fluctuations followed by a decline [9]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuated around the historical mean, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating increasing bearish power, with a pressure level of 4500 and a support level of 3700 [9]. - **Strategies**: For volatility, construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy; for spot hedging, construct a long collar strategy [9]. 3.5.3 Alcohols - Methanol - **Fundamentals**: Domestic methanol production started to recover, and port inventory increased [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Methanol showed a short - term narrow - range oscillating trend [9]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility was below the historical mean, the open interest PCR was around 0.80, indicating a weak - oscillating market, with a pressure level of 2950 and a support level of 2200 [9]. - **Strategies**: For volatility, construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy; for spot hedging, construct a long collar strategy [9]. 3.5.4 Alcohols - Ethylene Glycol - **Fundamentals**: Port inventory increased, and the destocking process would slow down [10]. - **Market Analysis**: Ethylene glycol showed a weak - bearish oscillating trend with pressure above [10]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuated around the historical mean, the open interest PCR was around 0.70, indicating a weak trend, with a pressure level of 4350 and a support level of 4300 [10]. - **Strategies**: For volatility, construct a short - volatility strategy; for spot hedging, hold a long spot position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [10]. 3.5.5 Polyolefins - Polypropylene - **Fundamentals**: PP trade inventory increased, and port inventory decreased [10]. - **Market Analysis**: Polypropylene showed a weak trend with bearish pressure above [10]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuated around the historical mean, the open interest PCR decreased below 0.80, indicating a weakening trend, with a pressure level of 7500 and a support level of 6800 [10]. - **Strategies**: For spot hedging, hold a long spot position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [10]. 3.5.6 Rubber - **Fundamentals**: The price of natural rubber rebounded, but downstream demand did not change significantly [11]. - **Market Analysis**: Rubber showed a low - level consolidation trend [11]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuated around the mean, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, with a pressure level of 15000 and a support level of 13000 [11]. - **Strategies**: For volatility, construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy [11]. 3.5.7 Polyesters - PTA - **Fundamentals**: PTA load increased, and the maintenance season ended [12]. - **Market Analysis**: PTA showed a weak trend with pressure above [12]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuated around the mean, the open interest PCR was below 0.80, indicating a weakening trend, with a pressure level of 5000 and a support level of 3800 [12]. - **Strategies**: For volatility, construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy [12]. 3.5.8 Alkalis - Caustic Soda - **Fundamentals**: The average utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity changed slightly [13]. - **Market Analysis**: Caustic soda showed a short - term bullish trend [13]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuated around the mean, the open interest PCR was around 0.80, with a pressure level of 3400 and a support level of 2200 [13]. - **Strategies**: For spot hedging, hold a long spot position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [13]. 3.5.9 Alkalis - Soda Ash - **Fundamentals**: Soda ash inventory increased, and enterprise shipments slowed down [13]. - **Market Analysis**: Soda ash showed a low - level consolidation trend with a bullish bias [13]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuated around the historical mean, the open interest PCR was below 0.50, indicating a weak - oscillating market, with a pressure level of 2080 and a support level of 1100 [13]. - **Strategies**: For direction, construct a bearish spread combination strategy of put options; for volatility, construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy; for spot hedging, construct a long collar strategy [13]. 3.5.10 Urea - **Fundamentals**: Supply - demand difference decreased, and inventory declined. Positive export news boosted the market [14]. - **Market Analysis**: Urea showed an oscillating trend under bearish pressure [14]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility was below the historical mean, the open interest PCR was below 0.80, with a pressure level of 1900 and a support level of 1700 [14]. - **Strategies**: For volatility, construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy; for spot hedging, hold a long spot position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints Urea - The main logic for the stabilization of the urea futures market is the improved demand - side expectations, but the high - supply pressure still limits the rebound height. Future demand improvement expectations, along with partial device overhauls, support the futures price [5]. Polyolefin - For PP and PE, there is a lack of strong driving forces. The static situation shows a double - decline in supply and demand, inventory accumulation, and weak apparent demand. However, there are expectations of demand improvement for PE in late July. Suggested strategies include range - bound operations for both PP and PE, and taking profit when the LP spread reaches around 250 [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - Different products in the polyester industry chain have different outlooks. PX may be boosted in the short - term, PTA is expected to be supported in the short - term, MEG is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, short - fiber has limited driving forces, and bottle - chip has expectations of supply - demand improvement [48]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose due to expectations of marginal supply contraction and supply uncertainties caused by geopolitical risks. It is recommended to adopt a short - term band - trading strategy [52]. Methanol - The inland methanol market is expected to see an increase in production in late July. The port market faces pressure from expected arrivals and planned MTO overhauls, resulting in continuous inventory accumulation from July to August. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations [73]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, there is limited supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals, but high profits stimulate high production. It is recommended that previous long - position holders temporarily exit and wait and see. For PVC, the current supply - demand pattern is in the off - season of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [81]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to improve in July, but its own driving force is limited. For styrene, the supply - demand is marginally repaired, but the supply - demand expectation is still weak. Short - term price support may come from the overall positive sentiment in the domestic commodity market [86]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea - **Futures Prices**: On July 17, the 01 contract closed at 1718 yuan/ton (up 0.47% from July 16), the 05 contract at 1730 yuan/ton (up 0.17%), the 09 contract at 1743 yuan/ton (up 0.58%), and the methanol - main contract at 2373 yuan/ton (up 0.25%) [1]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 12 yuan/ton on July 17 (up 29.41% from July 16), the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts was - 13 yuan/ton (down 116.67%), and the spread between the 09 and 01 contracts was 25 yuan/ton (up 8.70%) [2]. - **Main Positions**: On July 17, the long - position of the top 20 was 110750 (down 1.28% from July 16), the short - position of the top 20 was 123632 (up 1.78%), and the long - to - short ratio was 0.90 (down 3.00%) [3]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Most upstream raw material prices remained stable, with only slight changes in a few items such as动力煤港口(秦皇岛) (up 0.32%) and合成氨(山东) (down 0.33%) [4]. - **Spot Market Prices**: Spot prices in different regions showed minor fluctuations, with some prices decreasing slightly [4]. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: Domestic urea daily production decreased slightly on July 18 compared to July 17. Weekly data showed a decrease in domestic urea production, an increase in device overhaul losses, a decrease in factory inventory, and an increase in port inventory [5]. Polyolefin - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 17, L2601 closed at 7235 yuan/ton (up 0.14% from July 16), L2509 at 7215 yuan/ton (up 0.01%), PP2601 at 7016 yuan/ton (up 0.11%), and PP2509 at 7020 yuan/ton (up 0.10%). Some spot prices remained unchanged [10]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE and PP inventories increased, and the operating rates of some devices and downstream industries decreased [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Upstream prices such as Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased slightly. Downstream polyester product prices and cash - flows showed various changes, with some prices rising and some cash - flows changing significantly [48]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of different segments in the polyester industry chain showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [48]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 18, Brent crude oil was at 69.52 US dollars/barrel (up 1.46% from July 17), WTI at 67.55 US dollars/barrel (up 0.01%), and there were also changes in various price spreads [52]. - **Supply - Demand and Market Logic**: Supply decreased due to factors such as a decline in US crude oil inventories and production cuts in the Iraqi Kurdish region. Market focus has shifted to supply - side risks [52]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 17, MA2601 closed at 2438 yuan/ton (up 0.16% from July 16), MA2509 at 2373 yuan/ton (up 0.25%), and there were changes in various regional price spreads [73]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased slightly, while port and social inventories increased. The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries also changed [73]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: For PVC and caustic soda, futures and spot prices showed minor changes, and there were also changes in price spreads [76]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The operating rates of the chlor - alkali industry and its downstream industries changed, and inventory levels also showed different trends [79][80][81]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 17, the price of pure benzene and styrene and their related price spreads changed. For example, the price of benzene - ethylene in the East China spot market decreased [85]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories and operating rates showed different trends, with some operating rates decreasing [85][86].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an energy and chemical options strategy morning report dated July 17, 2025, covering various energy and chemical options including energy, polyolefins, polyesters, alkali chemicals, etc [2][3] - The recommended strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3] Group 2: Underlying Futures Market Overview - The report provides the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of multiple underlying futures contracts such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, etc [4] Group 3: Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The report presents the volume and open interest PCR data of various options, along with their changes, which are used to describe the strength of the underlying option market and the turning point of the market [5] Group 4: Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various options are analyzed based on the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [6] Group 5: Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The report shows the implied volatility data of various options, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes, as well as the difference between implied and historical volatility [7] Group 6: Strategy and Recommendations for Different Options Energy Options Crude Oil - Fundamental analysis: OPEC+ increased oil supply in July, and US shale oil production recovered. The short - term market is weak [8] - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the mean, open interest PCR indicates increasing short - selling power, pressure level is 500, and support level is 510 [8] - Strategy recommendations: Construct a neutral call + put option selling strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] LPG - Fundamental analysis: Global supply divergence decreases, demand from the blending market is uncertain, and PDH profit has recovered [10] - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical mean, open interest PCR indicates increasing short - selling power, pressure level is 5100, and support level is 4000 [10] - Strategy recommendations: Construct a bearish call + put option selling strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] Alcohol Options Methanol - Fundamental analysis: Domestic methanol production is expected to increase after maintenance, and port inventory is accumulating [10] - Option factor research: Implied volatility is below the historical mean, open interest PCR indicates a weak - oscillating market, pressure level is 2950, and support level is 2200 [10] - Strategy recommendations: Construct a neutral call + put option selling strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] Ethylene Glycol - Fundamental analysis: Port inventory is accumulating, and the de - stocking process will slow down [11] - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical mean, open interest PCR indicates a weak market, pressure level is 4350, and support level is 4300 [11] - Strategy recommendations: Construct a volatility - selling strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] Polyolefin Options Polypropylene - Fundamental analysis: PP trade inventory is accumulating, and port inventory is decreasing [11] - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical mean, open interest PCR indicates a weak market, pressure level is 7500, and support level is 6800 [11] - Strategy recommendations: Use a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] Rubber Options Rubber - Fundamental analysis: The price of natural rubber has rebounded, but downstream demand is weak [12] - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the mean, open interest PCR is below 0.6, pressure level is 15000, and support level is 13000 [12] - Strategy recommendations: Construct a neutral call + put option selling strategy for volatility [12] Polyester Options PTA - Fundamental analysis: PTA production load has increased, and the maintenance season is over [13] - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the mean, open interest PCR is below 0.8, pressure level is 5000, and support level is 3800 [13] - Strategy recommendations: Construct a neutral call + put option selling strategy for volatility [13] Alkali Chemical Options Caustic Soda - Fundamental analysis: The average utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity has slightly decreased [14] - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the mean, open interest PCR is around 0.8, pressure level is 3400, and support level is 2200 [14] - Strategy recommendations: Use a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] Soda Ash - Fundamental analysis: Domestic soda ash inventory has accumulated, and enterprise shipments have slowed down [14] - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical mean, open interest PCR is below 0.5, pressure level is 2080, and support level is 1100 [14] - Strategy recommendations: Construct a bearish spread strategy for direction, a bearish call + put option selling strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] Urea Options - Fundamental analysis: The supply - demand gap has decreased, and the market has strengthened after a short - term decline [15] - Option factor research: Implied volatility is below the historical mean, open interest PCR is below 0.8, pressure level is 1900, and support level is 1700 [15] - Strategy recommendations: Construct a neutral call + put option selling strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15]

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: July 17, 2025 [2] Market Quotes Futures Market | Variety | Opening | Closing | High | Low | Change | Change Rate | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 7288 | 7239 | 7301 | 7231 | -45 | -0.62% | 122440 | 5899 | | Plastic 2605 | 7258 | 7214 | 7272 | 7206 | -35 | -0.48% | 2935 | 568 | | Plastic 2509 | 7285 | 7221 | 7292 | 7208 | -63 | -0.86% | 433865 | 12529 | | PP2601 | 7072 | 7024 | 7080 | 7015 | -34 | -0.48% | 110563 | 4374 | | PP2605 | 7066 | 7018 | 7074 | 7010 | -33 | -0.47% | 5931 | 1115 | | PP2509 | 7080 | 7015 | 7080 | 7008 | -50 | -0.71% | 397459 | 5611 | [5] Spot Market - On July 16, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 785,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons (-0.63%) from the previous working day, compared with 765,000 tons in the same period last year [7] - PE market prices declined weakly. Linear PE prices were as follows: North China: 7,100 - 7,400 yuan/ton; East China: 7,200 - 7,600 yuan/ton; South China: 7,280 - 7,550 yuan/ton [7] - Shandong propylene market prices declined slightly, closing at 6,270 - 6,300 yuan/ton at 12:00, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [7] - PP futures fluctuated at a low level, suppressing the market trading atmosphere. The mainstream prices of North China PP drawstrings were 6,980 - 7,080 yuan/ton; East China: 6,980 - 7,130 yuan/ton; South China: 6,970 - 7,200 yuan/ton [7] Market Review and Outlook - LLDPE L2509 opened lower, fluctuated during the session, and closed down at 7,214 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton (-0.40%), with a trading volume of 200,000 lots and an increase in open interest of 2,987 to 436,852 lots [6] - PP futures closed at 7,013 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan (-0.33%), with an increase in open interest of 13,700 lots to 411,200 lots [6] - Futures opened lower and fluctuated, dampening the market trading atmosphere. Some ex-factory prices were lowered, and spot prices partially declined. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low [6] - Entering the consumption off-season, the downstream operating rate of polyethylene was at the lowest level of the year, and there was no sign of improvement in pipe demand. The demand side was difficult to support, while the supply side pressure increased. Previously shut-down plants were planned to restart, and the loss of maintenance was expected to weaken. The supply side would still face pressure in the future. Downstream companies mostly maintained a low inventory strategy, and the supply-demand balance was expected to deteriorate, leading to a weak downward trend in the single-sided market [6] Research Team - Energy and Chemical Research Team: Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (Urea, Industrial Silicon), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these factors [2][3][4] Summary by Product Methanol - The main contract of methanol fluctuates narrowly within the range. Import arrivals have increased significantly, and port inventories have accumulated rapidly. Some domestic enterprises may postpone autumn maintenance due to good profits. The domestic supply supports the market, and attention should be paid to macro and downstream device changes [2] Urea - The urea futures market is oscillating strongly. Supply remains sufficient, and agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season. Upstream inventories are shifting to downstream and ports. The market is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations with the possible release of a new export quota [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures closed down slightly, showing a weak trend. For polyethylene, the reduction of device maintenance increases pressure, and downstream demand is weak. For polypropylene, high - level device maintenance provides some support, but weak demand still suppresses the market [4] Pure Benzene - Crude oil is oscillating. The spot price of pure benzene in East China has slightly declined, while the forward price has risen slightly. There is still supply pressure, with a seasonal improvement expected in the mid - to - late third quarter and pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to operate on the monthly spread and short at high prices based on the long - term bearish view of oil prices [6] Styrene - Styrene futures are weakly sorted. The开工 load is at a high level, and port inventories are accumulating. Market supply is sufficient, while downstream demand is mainly based on digesting existing raw materials, and spot trading is poor [7] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuate narrowly. PX supply - demand has improved, but weak PTA demand drags it down. PTA has an upward repair drive due to low processing margins. For ethylene glycol, short - term long - position allocation is recommended if large domestic devices implement maintenance. Short fiber shows some demand resilience and can be treated bullishly, while bottle chip orders are weakening [8] Chlor - alkali - PVC is running weakly. New device production increases supply, and downstream demand is weak, with inventory accumulation. Caustic soda is under pressure at a high level, with poor high - price sales and general non - aluminum downstream demand [9] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass fluctuates narrowly. Industry profits have slightly increased, but processing orders are weak. Soda ash is oscillating weakly, with inventory accumulation and high - level production. The photovoltaic industry's planned production cuts may affect the market [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's economic semi - annual "report card" shows that the H1 GDP reached 66.05 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.3%. The fixed - asset investment grew by 2.8%, while real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. In June, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% [1]. - For A - shares, from a long - term perspective, the investment value is relatively high. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to more science and innovation policy support, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [2][11]. - The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports the price of treasury bond futures. However, the "anti - involution" policy drives up the prices of some commodities, and the price volatility of treasury bond futures may increase in the short term [3][12]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of short - term price rebound but may still fluctuate due to hedging pressure and no signs of production cuts at the mine end [4][5][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. International News - On July 15, data from the US Department of Labor showed that the US unadjusted CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February. The seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month [6]. b. Domestic News - The Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing from July 14 - 15, emphasizing achievements in urban development since the 18th National Congress of the CPC [7]. c. Industry News - On July 15, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in June, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 422.87 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. From January to June, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 24.5458 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0% [8]. d. Key Varieties Analysis - **Equity Index**: The US three major indexes mainly declined. The previous trading day's equity index fluctuated and declined. The communication sector led the rise, and the coal sector led the fall. The market turnover was 1.64 trillion yuan. The proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market is expected to gradually increase [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally rose, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond fell to 1.6575%. The central bank's net investment in the open - market operation was 173.5 billion yuan [3][12]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The weekly production of carbonate lithium decreased by 644 tons to 18,123 tons. The demand is expected to increase, while the inventory increased by 1,510 tons to 138,347 tons [4][20]. e. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Equity Index**: The investment value of A - shares is high in the long - term. The banking sector with high interest and low volatility has performed well since 2025 [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The external environment is more complex, and the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, but the price volatility of treasury bond futures may increase in the short term [3][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins declined. The consumption is in a relative off - season, and the cost support has weakened [13]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined. The supply is shrinking, and the market expects better results. Soda ash futures also declined, and the inventory is under pressure [14]. - **Rubber**: The supply of new rubber in domestic production areas is affected by rainfall, but the overall supply pressure is increasing, and the upward space is limited [16]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: After the release of inflation data, gold and silver weakened. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has cooled, but the long - term driving force for gold still exists [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price may fluctuate within a range due to the low processing fee of concentrates and stable downstream demand [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price may fluctuate widely. The supply of concentrates is expected to improve, and downstream demand is mixed [19]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The short - term macro - expectation is strong, and the iron ore price is expected to be strong with fluctuations [22]. - **Steel**: The supply and demand contradiction in the steel market is not significant, and the steel price is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply pressure still exists, and the market focuses on the "anti - involution" policy expectation [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The July USDA report is neutral to bearish, but the demand for US soybeans in biodiesel may support the price, and the domestic market is expected to fluctuate [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: The MPOB report is neutral to bearish, but the strong demand in India may support the palm oil price, and the overall market is expected to fluctuate [26][27]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index rose strongly. The market is still speculating on the freight rate space in August, and the focus is on the 10 - contract [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each sector, some varieties are selected for option strategy analysis and suggestions. Strategies mainly involve constructing option combination strategies with sellers as the main body, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - For various energy - chemical options, data on the latest price, change, change rate, trading volume, volume change, open interest, and open interest change of the underlying contracts are presented. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2509) is 506, down 4 with a change rate of - 0.73%, trading volume of 5.74 million lots, and an open interest of 2.62 million lots [3] 3.2 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Data on the trading volume, volume change, open interest, open interest change, volume PCR, volume PCR change, open interest PCR, and open interest PCR change of different option varieties are provided. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil is 0.72 with a change of 0.02, and the open interest PCR is 0.66 with a change of - 0.09 [4] 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure points, pressure point offsets, support points, support point offsets, maximum call option open interest, and maximum put option open interest of different option varieties are listed. For example, the pressure point of crude oil is 660 and the support point is 510 [5] 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - Data on the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average, call option implied volatility, put option implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and implied - historical volatility difference of different option varieties are given. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 27.54%, and the weighted implied volatility is 33.83% with a change of - 3.99% [6] 3.5 Strategies and Suggestions for Different Option Varieties 3.5.1 Energy - related Options (Crude Oil, LPG) - **Crude Oil**: Fundamentally, OPEC + is increasing production, and US supply is following the oil price rebound. The short - term market is weak. Optionally, the implied volatility fluctuates around the mean, the open interest PCR indicates increasing short - selling power, and the pressure and support levels are 660 and 500 respectively. Volatility strategies involve constructing a short - neutral call + put option combination, and spot long - hedging strategies involve constructing a long collar strategy [7] - **LPG**: Fundamentally, global supply differences are decreasing, and demand has uncertainties. The short - term market is bearish. Optionally, the implied volatility fluctuates around the historical mean, the open interest PCR indicates increasing short - selling power, and the pressure and support levels are 5100 and 4000 respectively. Similar to crude oil, volatility and spot long - hedging strategies are provided [9] 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options (Methanol, Ethylene Glycol) - **Methanol**: Fundamentally, domestic production is expected to increase after maintenance, and port inventory is rising. The short - term market is in a narrow - range fluctuation. Optionally, the implied volatility is below the historical mean, the open interest PCR indicates a weak - oscillating market, and the pressure and support levels are 2950 and 2200 respectively. Volatility and spot long - hedging strategies are proposed [9] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Fundamentally, port inventory is rising, and the destocking process will slow down. The short - term market is under pressure and bearish. Optionally, the implied volatility fluctuates around the historical mean, the open interest PCR indicates a weak trend, and the pressure and support levels are 4350 and 4300 respectively. Volatility and spot long - hedging strategies are provided [10] 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options (PP, PVC, L, EB) - **Polypropylene**: Fundamentally, PP inventory has mixed changes. The short - term market is weak with upward pressure. Optionally, the implied volatility fluctuates around the historical mean, the open interest PCR indicates a weakening trend, and the pressure and support levels are 7500 and 6800 respectively. Spot long - hedging strategies are proposed [10] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: No detailed fundamental analysis is provided. Option - related data such as volume and open interest PCR, implied volatility, and pressure and support levels are given, along with corresponding strategies [115 - 136] - **Polyethylene**: Similar to other polyolefins, data on option factors and corresponding strategies are presented [137 - 155] - **Styrene**: Data on option factors and corresponding strategies are provided, including fundamental analysis of price trends [156 - 174] 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options (Rubber, Synthetic Rubber) - **Rubber**: Fundamentally, the natural rubber market price has rebounded, but downstream demand is weak. The short - term market is in a low - level consolidation. Optionally, the implied volatility fluctuates around the mean, the open interest PCR indicates a certain short - selling power, and the pressure and support levels are 15000 and 13000 respectively. Volatility strategies are proposed [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Data on option factors and corresponding strategies are presented [195 - 212] 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options (PX, PTA, PF, PR) - **PTA**: Fundamentally, PTA production load is rising after the maintenance season. The short - term market is weak with upward pressure. Optionally, the implied volatility fluctuates around the mean, the open interest PCR indicates a weakening trend, and the pressure and support levels are 5000 and 3800 respectively. Volatility strategies are proposed [11] 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options (Caustic Soda, Soda Ash, Urea) - **Caustic Soda**: Fundamentally, the capacity utilization rate has mixed changes. The short - term market is bullish. Optionally, the implied volatility fluctuates around the mean, the open interest PCR is around 0.8, and the pressure and support levels are 3400 and 2200 respectively. Spot long - hedging strategies are proposed [12] - **Soda Ash**: Fundamentally, enterprise inventory is accumulating. The short - term market is in a low - level bullish consolidation. Optionally, the implied volatility fluctuates around the historical mean, the open interest PCR indicates a weak - oscillating market, and the pressure and support levels are 2080 and 1100 respectively. Directional, volatility, and spot long - hedging strategies are provided [12] - **Urea**: Fundamentally, supply - demand differences are decreasing, and the market is affected by export expectations. The short - term market is oscillating under bearish pressure. Optionally, the implied volatility is slightly below the historical mean, the open interest PCR is below 0.8, and the pressure and support levels are 1900 and 1700 respectively. Volatility and spot long - hedging strategies are proposed [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for each individual energy and chemical product, the ratings are as follows: - Crude oil: Oscillating [1] - Fuel oil: Oscillating [2] - Asphalt: Oscillating [2] - Polyester: Oscillating [2][4] - Rubber: Oscillating [4] - Methanol: Oscillating [5] - Polyolefin: Oscillating [5] - Polyvinyl chloride: Oscillating [5][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are affected by factors such as tariff policies and inventory changes, and are expected to continue oscillating [1]. - The fuel oil market is mainly driven by the cost - end crude oil, with the LU - FU spread reaching a high level this year, and attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunity [2]. - The asphalt market is affected by supply and demand factors and follows the cost - end crude oil for narrow - range fluctuations [2]. - The polyester market is under pressure due to factors such as weak terminal demand and inventory accumulation [4]. - The rubber market is affected by export volume and production, and is expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - The methanol market is expected to return to an oscillating trend due to factors such as device load and downstream profit [5]. - The polyolefin market has limited supply changes, and demand is at the bottom, with prices expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [5]. - The PVC market has limited fundamental changes, and the upward rebound space is not large [5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices fell again. API data showed an increase in US crude oil and refined product inventories. Trump's tariff measures may suppress oil prices. However, domestic energy production and processing have positive trends, and oil prices are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Fuel oil**: The main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil fell. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakened slightly, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market remained stable. It is expected to follow the cost - end crude oil for oscillation, and attention can be paid to the short - selling opportunity of the LU - FU spread [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract fell slightly. The adjustment of the fuel oil and diluted asphalt consumption tax deduction policy has not yet shown an impact. Supply has decreased, and demand has support. It is expected to follow the cost - end crude oil for narrow - range fluctuations [2]. - **Polyester**: The prices of PTA, EG, and PX futures fell. The downstream demand is weak, the inventory of polyester factories is increasing, and the prices of polyester products are under pressure [2][4]. - **Rubber**: The prices of some rubber varieties fluctuated. The rubber export volume in Cote d'Ivoire increased in the first half of 2025, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol is affected by factors such as device load and downstream profit, and is expected to return to an oscillating trend [5]. - **Polyolefin**: The prices of polyolefin products are affected by supply and demand. Supply changes are limited, demand is at the bottom, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [5]. - **Polyvinyl chloride**: The PVC market price has a narrow - range adjustment. Although demand has not improved significantly, the fundamentals have not deteriorated further, and the upward rebound space is limited [5][6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on July 16, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the percentile of the latest basis rate in historical data [7]. 3.3 Market News - Trump plans to impose a 30% tariff on most imported goods from the EU and Mexico starting from August 1, which may suppress global fuel demand and oil prices [1][9]. - API data shows that as of the week of July 11, US API crude oil and refined product inventories increased [1][9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, etc. [11][13][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It includes the basis charts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc., showing the basis changes over time [29][33][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spread charts of different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc., reflecting the price differences between different contract periods [44][46][49] - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: It includes the spread and ratio charts between different products, such as the spread between crude oil internal and external markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [61][63][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It presents the cash - flow chart of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and the production profit chart of PP, etc. [70]

能源化工日报 2025-07-16 原油 能源化工组 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收跌 0.08 美元，跌幅 0.12%，报 66.75 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收跌 0.28 美元，跌幅 0.40%，报 68.86 美元；INE 主力原油期货收跌 9.30 元，跌幅 1.76%， 报 518.2 元。 数据方面：富查伊拉港口油品周度数据出炉， 汽油库存累库 0.18 百万桶至 8.29 百万桶，环 比累库 2.23%；柴油库存累库 0.30 百万桶至 2.41 百万桶，环比累库 14.07%；燃料油库存累库 0.72 百万桶至 10.50 百万桶，环比累库 7.35%；总成品油累库 1.20 百万桶至 21.19 百万桶， 环比累库 5.99%。 我们认为当前地缘风险仍有不确定性，虽然 OPEC 略超预期增产，但我们认为当前基本面仍处 于紧平衡，整体原油处于强现实与弱预期的多空博弈当中，建议投资者把握风控，观望处理。 甲醇 2025/07/16 甲醇 7 月 15 日 09 合跌 10 元/吨，报 2386 元/吨，现货涨 5 元/吨，基差-1。上游检修增多，开工高 位回落，企业利润依旧较好，海外装置开 ...

日期 2025 年 7 月 16 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 行业 聚烯烃日报 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭 ...