内容概要：近年来，鹰潭市聚焦"走在前、勇争先、善作为"的目标要求，认真落实"1269"行动计划，大 力实施工业强市战略，全力打造国家级先进铜功能材料及高端应用集群，深入推进制造业数字化转型， 培育发展新质生产力，加速推进新型工业化。作为支柱产业，鹰潭市铜产业规模不断壮大，2024年，鹰 潭市铜产业实现营业收入突破4600亿元，电解铜产量、铜加工材产量均居全国第一。高端化、智能化、 绿色化转型取得明显成效，电子信息（物联网）产业、精密制造产业创新能力不断提升。 上市企业：三川智慧（300066）、江西铜业（600362） 相关企业：江西水晶光电有限公司、江西弘信柔性电子科技有限公司、江西晶创科技有限公司、江西成 明电子科技有限公司、江西鑫铂瑞科技股份有限公司、江西明鸿光电科技有限公司、鹰潭道朴智能科技 有限责任公司、江西水晶光电有限公司、江西弘信柔性电子科技有限公司、江西晶创科技有限公司、江 西成明电子科技有限公司、江西鑫铂瑞科技股份有限公司、江西明鸿光电科技有限公司、鹰潭道朴智能 科技有限责任公司 一、鹰潭市宏观经济分析 鹰潭市，江西省辖地级市，是长江中游城市群重要成员。2024年，鹰潭市经济运行稳中有进，主 ...

SHMET 网讯： 清明节后铜价因受美国"对等关税"政策的利空打击而快速探底，但随后不断传出缓和消息，且有来自供需面的提振，铜价逐步反弹回升，弥补前期缺口；4 月底后呈窄幅波动走势，上方压力依然明显。 宏观情绪缓和中略谨慎 现货端供应略偏紧 国内精铜库存降势未止，截止上周四，SMM铜社库降至12.01万吨，较五一节前降0.95万吨，实现连续10周周度去库，较年内高点及去年同期均明显回落。 上周，上期所铜总库存下降8602吨至8.07万吨，仓单数量下降9001吨至1.92万吨，而期货上05合约的持仓尚有3.7万手，虚实比较高。现货供给偏紧张，上周 升水快速冲高，同时期货上back结构较为突出，对铜价有较强的带动。LME铜库存也呈降势，注册仓单在11万吨左右，0-3现货升水也逐步抬升，至50美元/ 吨左右，关注可能的挤仓风险。COMEX铜库存快速增长至16万吨左右，注册仓单则徘徊于8.6万吨上下。 5月10日至11日，中美经贸代表于瑞士进行会谈，会后中方代表表示，此次会谈达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展，关注后续声明，可能会对有色市场情绪 有一定提振。此前，美英已就关税贸易协议条款达成一致，未掀起大的波澜，市场更多 ...

正信期货铜周报20250512 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 Email：zhangjf@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 内容要点 宏观层面：节后铜价维持高位震荡走势，关税方面有缓和，COMEX-LME价差收敛，美国非农 就业有韧性，失业率维持4.2%，美国经济目前处于"软数据"大幅回落， "硬数据"尚可的阶 段，美联储重申不急降息的模糊态度，仍以控通胀的货币政策目标为主，我们认为美国经济的 走弱有一定持续性，但目前尚未完全触及衰退，关税政策带来的实际影响逐步体现，可能加速 这一进程，同时美联储依然难以降息，给出的预期管理方向比较模糊，这使得市场担忧衰退实 际发生后美联储才会有所行动，导致铜价从估值角度来看已经承压。国内端聚焦于政策刺激， 内需有支撑。 产业基本面：产业端的主要逻辑在于冶炼端的减产是否真实发生，在利润继续被侵蚀，矿端 依旧偏紧，铜价表现不佳的三重压力下冶炼困境比去年更甚。价格可能通过下跌的方式来淘汰 部分产能，但供给收缩后铜价将再度释放价格弹性。 策略：节前在国内高涨的买货情绪下， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The market sentiment is cautious, and the non - ferrous metals sector is oscillating. For copper, although there are some positive trade news, the upward momentum of copper prices is weak after a recent rebound. For zinc, the long - term bearish logic remains, and zinc prices are under pressure in the short term. For nickel, it is expected to be strong in the short term, but there is still pressure of supply surplus in the long term [8][88][206]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01. Non - ferrous Metals Price Monitoring - Various non - ferrous metals have different price changes. For example, the US dollar index is at 100.4 with a daily decline of 0.21%, a weekly increase of 0.38%, and an annual decline of 7.43%. Industrial silicon is at 8,205 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 1.32%, a weekly decline of 3.92%, and an annual decline of 25.31% [5]. 02. Copper (CU) - **Influencing Factors and Drives** - Macro factors are neutral to bearish due to China's monetary policies, the Fed's stance, and Sino - US talks. The raw material end is bullish as copper mine processing fees decline and port inventories increase. The smelting end is neutral with increased losses for smelters. The demand end is neutral with fluctuating downstream demand. The inventory is bullish as domestic copper inventories decrease [8]. - **Price and Market Conditions** - Copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The structural squeeze - out market of Shanghai copper continues, and the import window is opened periodically. The refined copper output is increasing, while the copper rod processing fee is declining, and the copper rod production rate is changing [13][24][52]. - **Investment and Trading** - The investment view is oscillating to bearish. The trading strategy is to be short - term bearish for unilateral trading and no arbitrage [8]. 03. Zinc (ZN) - **Influencing Factors and Drives** - Macro factors are bearish considering China's trade data, the Fed's decision, and domestic policies. The raw material end is neutral with changes in processing fees and inventory. The smelting end is neutral with a slight reduction in supply. The demand end is bearish as downstream demand is weak. The inventory is bullish as the social inventory increase during the festival is limited [88]. - **Price and Market Conditions** - Zinc prices are weakening due to the stalemate in Sino - US tariff negotiations. The domestic processing fee is increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the refined zinc import window is opened [90][106]. - **Investment and Trading** - The investment view is oscillating. The trading strategy is to be bearish for unilateral trading and wait - and - see for arbitrage [88]. 04. Nickel (NI) - **Influencing Factors and Drives** - Macro factors are neutral with China's policies and the Fed's stance. The raw material end is bullish with the impact of policies and inventory changes. The smelting end is neutral with different production situations of various nickel products. The demand end is neutral to bearish as stainless steel production is reduced and the new - energy demand has its own characteristics. The inventory is neutral with a slight decline [206]. - **Price and Market Conditions** - The news of the Philippines' potential nickel - mining ban has affected the market, and nickel prices rose sharply on Friday night. Nickel - iron prices have dropped significantly, and the prices of other related products also have certain changes [208][225]. - **Investment and Trading** - The investment view is short - term bullish. The trading strategy is to conduct short - term range trading for unilateral trading and go long on nickel and short on stainless steel for arbitrage [206].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is bearish with weak fundamentals and high inventory. The price is expected to remain weak, with the main contract ranging from 62,000 to 66,000 yuan/ton [1][3]. - **Tin**: The supply side is expected to recover, while the demand outlook is pessimistic. The price may rebound due to macro - sentiment but is likely to be bearish in the medium - term. Attention should be paid to the supply recovery rhythm [4]. - **Nickel**: The macro - sentiment is temporarily stable, and the cost provides support, but the medium - term supply is abundant. The price is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract ranging from 122,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Stainless Steel**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is expanding, and the inventory pressure is slightly relieved. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract ranging from 12,600 to 13,000 yuan/ton [6][7]. - **Zinc**: The supply side may become looser, and the demand is weak. The price may be supported in the short - term, but in the long - term, a short - selling strategy is recommended. The main contract reference range is 21,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton [9]. - **Aluminum**: The alumina price is expected to fluctuate, and the aluminum price is expected to be weak, with the support level at 18,000 - 18,500 yuan/ton [12]. - **Copper**: The copper market shows a "strong reality + weak expectation" pattern. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the main contract focusing on the 77,500 - 78,500 yuan/ton pressure level [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Basis - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 65,250 yuan/ton, while battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.23%. The basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) increased by 10,800% [1]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin decreased by 0.99% to 259,600 yuan/ton [4]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.06% to 124,825 yuan/ton [5]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) remained unchanged at 13,050 yuan/ton [6]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.35% to 22,770 yuan/ton [9]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 0.05% to 19,610 yuan/ton [12]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 0.29% to 78,205 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamentals - **Lithium Carbonate**: In April, lithium carbonate production decreased by 6.65%, while demand increased by 3.02%. Inventory increased by 6.81% [1]. - **Tin**: In March, tin ore imports decreased by 4.83%, and SMM refined tin production increased by 8.75% [4]. - **Nickel**: In April, China's refined nickel products increased by 6.08%, and imports decreased by 68.84% [5]. - **Stainless Steel**: In April, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 2.65%, and exports increased by 70.98% [6]. - **Zinc**: In April, refined zinc production increased by 0.31%, and the social inventory increased by 8.18% [9]. - **Aluminum**: In April, alumina production decreased by 6.17%, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.91% [12]. - **Copper**: In April, electrolytic copper production increased by 0.32%, and the domestic social inventory decreased by 7.33% [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental situation of copper is relatively strong, presenting opportunities for calendar spread arbitrage. The price range is estimated to be between 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, and the strength analysis is neutral [3]. - The reality of copper fundamentals is strong, but macro - disturbances bring uncertainties. The continuous decline of inventory and the increasing expectation of supply reduction bring logical certainty. However, Trump's tariff policy affects investors' positions. Based on the certainty of fundamentals, calendar spread arbitrage can be carried out on dips. For unilateral trading, stage - based trading opportunities need to be sought. If the tariff policy eases, enterprises can buy on dips [7]. - Strategies include paying attention to unilateral buying on dips, calendar spread arbitrage, and waiting for opportunities for domestic - foreign arbitrage [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply Side 3.1.1 Copper Concentrate - Copper concentrate imports increased in March 2025, with imports reaching 2.394 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.67% and a year - on - year increase of 2.80%. The supply is tight, port inventory increased from 460,000 tons on March 14 to 799,000 tons on May 9. The processing fee continued to weaken, with the spot TC at - 43.11 dollars/ton in the week of May 9, and the smelter loss was about 3,538 yuan/ton, an increase from last week [42]. 3.1.2 Recycled Copper - In March, recycled copper imports were 189,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.07%, and domestic recycled copper production was 87,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.50%. The scrap - refined spread of recycled copper weakened, below the break - even point, and the import profit expanded [44][49]. 3.1.3 Blister Copper - Blister copper supply is tight. In March, imports were 50,200 tons, at a historically low level for the same period. Processing fees are at a historically low level, with the southern processing fee at 1,150 yuan/ton and the import processing fee at 95 dollars/ton [54]. 3.1.4 Refined Copper - Domestic refined copper production continued to increase. In March, production was 1.1221 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.27%, and it is expected to be 1.1163 million tons in April, a year - on - year increase of 13.32%. Imports increased, with 308,800 tons imported in March, a year - on - year increase of 4.50%. Currently, imports are near the break - even point [56]. 3.2 Demand Side 3.2.1 Operating Rate - In April, the operating rate of copper tube enterprises was at a neutral - low position for the same period in history, and that of copper plate and strip foil enterprises was at a neutral position. In the week of May 8, the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises declined marginally [60]. 3.2.2 Profit - Copper rod processing fees declined and are at a neutral position for the same period in history. As of April 30, the processing fee for power - industry copper in East China was 625 yuan/ton, lower than 775 yuan/ton on April 30. Copper tube processing fees declined and are at a low position for the same period in history. The 10 - day moving average of the processing fee for R410A special copper tubes was 5,053.5 yuan/ton, lower than 5,070.5 yuan/ton on April 30. Copper plate and strip processing fees and lithium - ion copper foil processing fees remained stable [66]. 3.2.3 Raw Material Inventory - In April, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a high level for the same period in history, and that of copper tube enterprises was at a low level. The weekly raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remained low [67]. 3.2.4 Finished - Product Inventory - In April, the finished - product inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a neutral level for the same period in history, and that of copper tube enterprises was at a neutral - low level. The weekly finished - product inventory of wire and cable enterprises increased [70]. 3.3 Consumption Side 3.3.1 Apparent Consumption - From January to March, the cumulative actual consumption of domestic copper was 3.5827 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.34%, and the apparent consumption was 3.8334 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.40%. Grid investment, home appliances, and new - energy enterprises are important supports for copper consumption. Grid investment accelerated, with cumulative investment of 95.6 billion yuan from January to March, a year - on - year increase of 24.80%, at a historically high position [74]. 3.3.2 Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle Production - In March, domestic air - conditioner production was 24.848 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.94%, and domestic new - energy vehicle production was 1.277 million units, a year - on - year increase of 47.97% [76]. 3.4 Trading Side 3.4.1 Volatility - The copper price volatility in four markets declined. The price volatility of COMEX copper dropped to around 20%, and that of LME copper dropped to around 13% [13]. 3.4.2 Term Spread - The B - structure of SHFE copper term spread strengthened. The spread between SHFE copper 05 - 06 contracts widened from 230 yuan/ton to 510 yuan/ton. The LME copper spot premium expanded, with the LME 0 - 3 spread rising from 20.23 dollars/ton to a premium of 49.19 dollars/ton. COMEX copper remained in a C - structure [18]. 3.4.3 Position - Positions in four markets increased, with a significant increase in SHFE copper positions, which increased by 33,000 lots to 550,000 lots [19]. 3.4.4 Capital and Industrial Positions - The net long position of non - commercial traders in CFTC copper increased from 19,369 lots on April 29 to 21,703 lots on May 6. The net short position of commercial traders in LME copper expanded from 54,200 lots on April 25 to 60,000 lots [25]. 3.4.5 Spot Premium - The domestic copper spot premium declined from a premium of 230 yuan/ton on April 30 to a premium of 80 yuan/ton on May 9. The Yangshan copper premium rose from 95 dollars/ton on April 30 to 103 dollars/ton, at a historically high level for the same period. The US copper premium remained at a high level [31]. 3.4.6 Inventory - Global total copper inventory declined from 531,400 tons on April 30 to 524,400 tons on May 8. Domestic social inventory continued to decline from a phased high of 377,000 tons on March 3 to 120,100 tons on May 8. Bonded - area inventory decreased continuously, and COMEX inventory increased to a historically high level for the same period, while LME copper inventory declined slightly [36]. 3.4.7 Position - to - Inventory Ratio - The position - to - inventory ratio of SHFE copper 06 contract is at a historically high level for the same period, and the position - to - inventory ratio of LME copper rebounded but is at a historically low level [37].

| 锌产业期现日报 | | --- | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月9日 星期五 FE Z0015979 | 价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 0#锌锭 | 22850 | 22770 | +80.00 | 0.35% | 元/吨 | | 升贴水 | 500 | 85 | +415.00 | / | 元/吨 | | SMM 0#锌锭 (广东) | 22850 | 22770 | +80.00 | 0.35% | 元/吨 | | 升贴水(广东) | 500 | ਦਾ ਦ | -15.00 | / | 元/吨 | | 比价和盈亏 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | 629 | 713 | -84.78 | | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 8.68 | 8.67 | +0.01 | | / | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Tin - Market sentiment has improved, driving up tin prices. However, considering the gradual recovery of the supply side and pessimistic demand expectations, a bearish view on the rebound of tin prices is maintained. Attention should be paid to the recovery rhythm of raw materials on the supply side [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the futures price is under pressure in the short - term due to the expected decline in ore prices, while the spot price provides some support. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term. For electrolytic aluminum, inventory depletion, easing tariff attitudes, and domestic stimulus policy expectations support aluminum prices. But as domestic demand transitions to the off - season, aluminum prices may face downward pressure in the future. The short - term focus is on post - holiday consumption and the pressure around 20,000 yuan/ton [2]. Zinc - In the pessimistic scenario, if tariff policies lead to insufficient terminal consumption, the zinc price center may shift downward. If the growth rate of the ore end is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, the zinc price may maintain a high - level shock pattern. In the medium - to - long - term, a short - selling approach is recommended, with the main reference range of 21,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton [4]. Copper - Macroscopically, the issue of reciprocal tariffs is the core variable for asset pricing. The pressure of tariffs has slightly eased, and attention should be paid to the introduction of domestic monetary and fiscal policies. Fundamentally, the supply of raw materials is still tight, and the demand is resilient. In the short - term, the price is expected to be volatile, with the main focus on the pressure level of 77,500 - 78,500 yuan/ton [6]. Nickel - Macroscopically, the situation is stable. With the implementation of Indonesian policies and relatively firm raw material nickel ore, there is still cost support for nickel prices. However, the medium - term supply is abundant, restricting the upward space. In the short - term, the macro situation is still uncertain, and the fundamentals change little. The disk is expected to be in a narrow - range shock, with the main reference range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [8]. Stainless Steel - The ore end provides some support for prices, while the nickel - iron price is weak. In the short - term, the supply is relatively abundant, domestic demand has some resilience but recovers slowly, and export demand is blocked. The inventory pressure has slightly eased. Considering the cost - demand game and the uncertain macro - environment, the disk is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main operating range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals lack positive factors. The supply pressure is obvious, and the demand is generally stable but fails to meet expectations. The inventory is still high. In the short - term, the disk is expected to remain weakly operating, with the main reference range of 65,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the performance of funds around 65,000 yuan/ton [13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.38%, SMM 1 tin premium increased by 12.50%. Import profit and loss increased by 32.10%. Some month - to - month spreads changed significantly, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increasing by 90.00% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In March, tin ore imports decreased by 4.83%, SMM refined tin production increased by 8.75%, refined tin imports increased by 12.41%, and exports decreased by 29.50%. Indonesian refined tin exports increased by 46.15%. The SMM refined tin average operating rate in March increased by 8.75% [1]. - **Inventory**: SHEF inventory decreased by 3.68%, social inventory decreased by 5.57%, SHEF daily inventory decreased by 0.98%, and LME inventory increased by 1.69% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 1.05%, and the import profit and loss increased. Some month - to - month spreads changed, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increasing by 75 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, alumina production decreased by 6.17%, electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.91%. In March, electrolytic aluminum imports increased by 2.2 million tons, and exports increased by 0.5 million tons. The aluminum profile operating rate decreased by 0.84%, and the aluminum cable operating rate increased by 0.94% [2]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 1.09%, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [2]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.22%, and the import profit and loss changed. Some month - to - month spreads changed, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increasing by 185 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, refined zinc production increased by 0.31%, in March, imports increased by 9.47%, and exports decreased by 77.37%. The galvanizing operating rate decreased by 12.83%, the die - casting zinc alloy operating rate decreased by 9.97%, and the zinc oxide operating rate decreased by 1.20% [4]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 2.10%, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.50% [4]. Copper - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.31%, the refined - scrap price difference increased by 25.70%, and the import profit and loss increased. Some month - to - month spreads changed, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increasing by 80 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, electrolytic copper production increased by 0.32%, in March, imports increased by 15.24%. The electrolytic copper rod operating rate increased, and various inventories decreased, such as the SHFE inventory decreasing by 23.51% [6]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.32%, and the futures import profit and loss increased by 19.50%. Some month - to - month spreads changed, such as the 2506 - 2507 spread decreasing by 10 yuan/ton [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel increased by 1.85%, and the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte production of electrowon nickel increased by 2.47% [8]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Chinese refined nickel products decreased by 2.62%, imports increased by 8.18%. SHFE inventory decreased by 3.08%, social inventory decreased by 1.25%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.92% [8]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coils remained stable, and the futures - spot price difference decreased by 11.82%. Some month - to - month spreads changed, such as the 2506 - 2507 spread increasing by 20 yuan/ton [10]. - **Raw Material Price**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.98%, and the price of 304 waste stainless steel increased by 1.05% [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 11.37%, Indonesian production decreased by 6.67%. Stainless steel imports decreased by 19.45%, exports increased by 70.98%, and net exports increased by 196.56%. The 300 - series social inventory increased by 0.94% [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 1.25%, and some month - to - month spreads changed, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increasing by 20 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, lithium carbonate production decreased by 6.65%, battery - grade lithium carbonate production decreased by 9.55%, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate production increased by 0.27%. In March, lithium carbonate demand increased by 15.07%, imports increased by 47.03%, and exports decreased by 47.25% [13]. - **Inventory**: In March, the total lithium carbonate inventory increased by 16.79%, downstream inventory increased by 27.94%, and smelter inventory increased by 9.40% [13].

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【周二沪铜阴线整理，现钢报 76195 元】上海升水 40 元，广东升水 55 元，精废价差 660 元。晚间市场 关注联储官员讲话，明日关注国内一季度指标。3 月进出口数据显示，国内家电、集成电路板块抢出口 增量明显。精铜一季度累计进口量减少 5.2%至 130.3 万吨，铜精矿进口环增 1.8%。短期铜市由中国供 需基本面及美铜物流支撑。伦铜倾向 9300 - 9500 美元阻力强，沪铜上方阻力在 7.65 - 7.7 万，反弹空 配。【今日沪铝小幅回落】华东现货平水，华南贴水 20 元。铝市供应低增速下近期去库强劲，过去一 周铝锭铝棒社库分别下降 5 万吨和 2.2 万吨，总库存处于近年最低水平。不过贸易战对全球需求前景的 打击程度仍有待观察，市场对于宏观风险的交易会有反复。沪铝技术面向下破位后，上方面临两万整数 关口和均线压制，预计本周 19000 元运行。4 月氧化铝厂集中检修，平衡有改善，但多数企业将在检修 后恢复生产，长期产量影响量级难改过剩格局。矿石价格处于下跌通道，上周氧化铝低点 2600 元附近 已经对应了矿石价格跌至 70 美元的成本预期，该位置继续向下空间已有限。近日几内亚某矿企运营出 ...