炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：明察宏观 文 财信研究院宏观团队 李沫 胡文艳 伍超明 核心观点 一、价比量更重要：经济、政策以及资产配置新瞄点 其一，价格直接牵动企业盈利与居民收入，是激活"价格-盈利-收入-消费"内循环的关键枢纽，比GDP等 总量指标更能反映经济内生活力。其二，当前"量增价缩"格局不可持续，推动价格回升至合理区间已是 宏观政策必然选择，否则将侵蚀供需两端并阻碍新质生产力发展。其三，A股市场未来的走势，核心在 于建立"价格-盈利-信心"正向循环，价格回升既是启动盈利修复的关键，也是稳定市场预期的压舱石。 二、2026年价格走势分析 （一）趋势研判：2026年物价回升趋势明确。从宏观视角看，供需缺口趋于收敛、M1增速触底回升、 居民就业筑底改善以及产能周期有望上行等四大领先指标，共同为物价回升奠定基础。从价格构成看， 2026年CPI与PPI的"翘尾因素"将显著高于上年；同时"十五五"开局之年，扩大内需政策与供给侧"反内 卷"政策有望形成合力，共同支撑"新涨价因素"，推动价格实现温和回升。 （二）核心判断：上游主导PPI回升，预计2026年二季度 ...

宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 1 月 27 日） 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 氛围偏谨慎，焦煤震荡运行 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 供需暂稳，焦炭区间运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：1 月 26 日收盘，焦煤主力合约报收于 1159.5 元/ ...

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a collective decline on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.85%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.91%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 32,478.31 billion yuan [1][7] - In terms of industry performance, sectors such as power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and defense industry led the gains, while communication, banking, and coal sectors lagged behind. Concept sectors that performed well included avian influenza, lead, and zinc, while military information technology, terahertz, and military-civilian integration concepts saw declines [1][7] Important News - The precious metals market experienced significant volatility on Monday, with COMEX silver initially surging over 16% and spot silver nearly rising 14%, both surpassing the $117 per ounce mark before retreating. COMEX silver's gains narrowed to 2.5%, while spot silver turned negative. COMEX gold and spot gold also briefly crossed the $5,000 and $5,100 thresholds, respectively, but later saw their gains diminish, with both settling around the $5,000 mark [2][8] - Exchanges took measures to cool down the commodity futures market, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai International Energy Exchange announcing reductions in daily opening trading limits for silver and tin futures contracts to 800 lots and 200 lots, respectively. They also imposed restrictions on 16 clients regarding opening positions in tin and silver futures for one month and limited withdrawals. Additionally, the trading limits for copper, international copper, and aluminum futures contracts were adjusted to 9%, with margin ratios for hedging and general positions set at 10% and 11% [2][8]

最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 695.0 2.0 -5.0 8.0 -70.0 25省终端可用天数 18.0 0.1 -2.0 -2.9 0.4 秦皇岛5000 608.0 2.0 -6.0 23.0 -62.0 25省终端供煤 617.5 6.1 8.9 -22.6 -5.4 广州港5500 795.0 0.0 0.0 -15.0 -65.0 北方港库存 2427.0 -8.0 -133.0 -336.0 96.5 鄂尔多斯5500 490.0 0.0 -5.0 -5.0 -60.0 北方锚地船舶 67.0 -3.0 -28.0 -4.0 10.0 大同5500 545.0 0.0 -5.0 -5.0 -85.0 北方港调入量 125.1 -19.2 -22.7 -13.4 -9.9 榆林6000 670.0 0.0 0.0 -20.0 -92.0 北方港吞吐量 162.4 6.5 18.5 20.0 14.6 榆林6200 745.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -45.0 CBCFI海运指数 679.2 -2.3 45.3 38.6 201.7 ...

黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 黑色建材日报 2026-01-27 【策略观点】 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3143 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 1 元/吨（0.031%）。当日注册仓单 17283 吨, 环比减少 1204 吨。主力合约持仓量为 173.09 万手，环比减少 10906 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3302 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 3 元/吨（-0.09%）。 当日注册仓单 179126 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel prices remained stable. The night - trading prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils closed at 3144 yuan and 3304 yuan respectively. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar widened, and the rebar futures strengthened. The industry is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Rebar demand declined seasonally, with a significant increase in inventory, while hot - rolled coil demand declined slightly and inventory continued to decrease. It is expected that steel prices will maintain a range - bound trend. The reference range for the May rebar contract is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils is 3200 - 3350 yuan. The strategy of long hot - rolled coil and short rebar can be continued [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The main iron ore contract oscillated weakly, and the position decreased. The supply side saw a slight increase in global shipments, but the shipment center decreased marginally and was still at a relatively high level compared to the historical average. The demand side showed that the previous period's molten iron production was flat, and the port clearance volume decreased seasonally, indicating that the resumption of molten iron production before the Spring Festival was limited. The inventory at ports continued to increase, and the increase in steel mill inventory slowed down. Iron ore is facing a situation of weak supply and demand, and prices are under pressure. Be vigilant about macro - level disturbances [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures oscillated. After the fourth round of price cuts on January 1st, the coke market was temporarily stable. The supply side had pressure on coking profits, and the start - up rate decreased slightly. The demand side saw a slight increase in molten iron production after the New Year, and steel prices rebounded from a low level. The inventory at ports and steel mills increased, while the coking plant inventory decreased. It is expected that the proposed price increase of coke can be implemented, but the market will be loose again after the Spring Festival. The price is expected to be range - bound and bearish, with a reference range of 1600 - 1800 yuan. - Coking coal futures oscillated. The supply side saw an increase in daily coal production, and the import volume increased after the New Year. The demand side had limited downstream restocking demand before the Spring Festival due to factors such as steel mill losses and safety accidents. The inventory of coal mines, coking enterprises, and steel mills increased. The price is expected to be range - bound and bearish, with a reference range of 1000 - 1200 yuan. The strategy of long coking coal and short coke is recommended [6]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese Industry - Silicon iron futures oscillated weakly. The supply side had stable production, with most regions' production remaining flat compared to the previous week, and only Gansu seeing a slight decline. The demand side had less - than - expected resumption of molten iron production, and the profitability of steel mills declined. The inventory in factories remained high, and the overall non - steel demand weakened. The cost side had a downward expectation of the settlement electricity price in Inner Mongolia. It is expected that the price will be range - bound, with a reference range of 5500 - 5900 yuan. - Silicon manganese futures oscillated weakly. The supply side had stable supply, with new production capacity in Inner Mongolia and some factories having shutdown and maintenance plans at the end of the month. The demand side also had less - than - expected resumption of molten iron production, and the profitability of steel mills declined. The inventory was at a relatively high level, and the manganese ore price was supported. It is expected that the price will be range - bound, with a reference range of 5600 - 6000 yuan [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed various changes. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased by 10 yuan to 3280 yuan, and the 05 contract price increased by 19 yuan to 3143 yuan. The hot - rolled coil 05 contract price increased by 15 yuan to 3302 yuan [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price increased by 10 yuan to 2950 yuan, and the plate billet price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan. The profit of hot - rolled coils in East China increased by 24 yuan to 36 yuan, while the profit of rebar in North China increased by 24 yuan but was still at - 84 yuan [1]. Supply - The daily average molten iron production decreased slightly by 0.1 to 228.1, and the output of five major steel products increased slightly by 0.4 to 819.6. The rebar output increased by 9.3 to 199.6, with a growth rate of 4.9%, and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 2.9 to 305.4, with a decline rate of 1.0% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 10.1 to 1257.1, with a growth rate of 0.8%. The rebar inventory increased by 14.0 to 452.1, with a growth rate of 3.2%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 4.6 to 357.8, with a decline rate of 1.3% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume decreased by 0.2 to 7.6, with a decline rate of 2.4%. The apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 16.6 to 809.5, with a decline rate of 2.0%. The apparent consumption of rebar decreased by 4.8 to 185.5, with a decline rate of 2.5%, and the apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils decreased by 4.2 to 310.0, with a decline rate of 1.3% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore types such as Carajás fines, PB fines, etc. decreased. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of Carajás fines decreased by 9.8 to 845.7, with a decline rate of 1.1%. The 05 - contract basis of various iron ore types increased slightly, and the 5 - 9 spread and 1 - 5 spread also changed [3]. Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 129.7 to 2530.0, with a decline rate of 4.9%. The global shipment volume increased by 48.4 to 2978.3, with a growth rate of 1.7%. The national monthly import volume increased by 910.7 to 11964.7, with a growth rate of 8.2% [3]. Demand - The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.1 to 228.1. The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports decreased by 9.2 to 310.7, with a decline rate of 2.9%. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 162.1 to 6072.2, with a decline rate of 2.6%, and the national monthly crude steel production decreased by 169.4 to 6817.7, with a decline rate of 2.4% [3]. Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 211.4 to 16766.53, with a growth rate of 1.3%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 126.6 to 9388.8, with a growth rate of 1.4%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 2.0 to 23.0, with a growth rate of 9.5% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) and other coke products remained unchanged or changed slightly. The coke 05 contract price decreased by 3 to 1160, with a decline rate of 0.2% [6]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) increased by 9 to 1207, with a growth rate of 0.8%. The coking coal 05 contract price increased by 3 to 1160, with a growth rate of 0.2% [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.1 to 63.3, with a decline rate of 0.2%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2 to 46.9, with a growth rate of 0.4% [6]. Demand - The molten iron production of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.1 to 228.1 [6]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 18.9 to 939.2, with a growth rate of 2.1%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 44.9 to 1177.7, with a growth rate of 4.0% [6]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions remained stable. The silicon iron 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia remained at 5330 yuan, and the silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia remained at 5680 yuan [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia remained at 5867.8 yuan, and the production profit increased by 18 to - 104. The production cost of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 18 to 5434.0, and the production profit increased by 18 to - 115 [7]. Supply - The weekly output of silicon iron remained at 19.3, and the weekly output of silicon manganese was relatively stable. The manganese ore shipment volume increased by 5.2 to 77.7, with a growth rate of 7.2% [7]. Demand - The demand for silicon iron and silicon manganese calculated by Steel Union showed slight changes. The demand for silicon iron was 0.0, and the demand for silicon manganese increased by 0.1 to 11.6 [7]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of 60 sample silicon iron enterprises increased by 0.3 to 6.7, with a growth rate of 5.4%. The inventory of 63 sample silicon manganese enterprises remained at 37.3 [7].

Report Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - The supply side of steel is disturbed, the resumption of production by steel mills is slow, and the high shipment and high inventory of iron ore suppress the valuation of the futures market. As the downstream replenishment of coking coal and coke progresses, the support for replenishment weakens. During the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is emerging, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the cost - side support is loosening, causing the futures market to face pressure. The oversupply of glass and soda ash continues to suppress futures prices. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment intensity, and the resumption of production by steel enterprises in January is expected to boost the replenishment expectation, with the furnace material prices having the expectation of a low - level rebound [1][2][3] Summary by Category 1. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments have increased, mainly due to the recovery in Australia, while Brazil and non - mainstream countries have declined. The arrival volume has weakened, and there are still expectations of supply disturbances due to weather. The demand side has a stable rigid demand, and steel mills are in the process of replenishing inventory but with weak enthusiasm. Ports and steel mills are both increasing inventory, and the total inventory pressure is accumulating. In the short term, the supply pressure eases slightly, but the inventory pressure increases. The pre - festival replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price, and the supply - demand situation remains to be verified, with the short - term trend expected to be oscillatory [8] - **Scrap Steel**: The average arrival volume this week has slightly decreased, lower than the same period in previous lunar years. The daily consumption of electric furnaces is expected to decline, and the daily consumption of long - process scrap steel has also slightly decreased. Steel enterprises' inventory has increased, and the pre - festival replenishment progress is close to last year. The supply is stable, the daily consumption is expected to decline, and the overall fundamentals will marginally weaken, with the spot price expected to follow the finished products [9] 2. Carbon Element - **Coke**: The cost - side support is strong, and there are still expectations for the resumption of production by steel mills and winter storage replenishment demand. The supply - demand structural contradiction is limited, and the spot price increase is still expected to be implemented. The futures market is expected to follow coking coal [12] - **Coking Coal**: The domestic supply is stable, and the import of Mongolian coal is at a high level. The demand side is still in the winter storage stage, and the supply of coal mines is expected to decline near the holiday. The fundamentals will continue to marginally improve, with strong spot support. However, after the futures market has factored in the winter - storage replenishment, the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [13] 3. Alloys - **Silicomanganese**: The cost support has loosened, the market supply - demand remains loose, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large, suppressing the futures price. However, the current futures price has fallen to a low level, and the further downward space is limited under the cost support, with the price expected to operate at a low level around the cost valuation [3][16] - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand is weak, the fundamental contradiction is limited, but the poor market trading activity suppresses the upward space of the futures price. In the short term, the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [3][17] 4. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply has expectations of disturbances, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high, and the current supply - demand is still in oversupply. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [3][14] - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply - demand is in oversupply. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the oversupply pattern will intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [3][14][16] 5. Steel - The spot market trading is average, the profitability of steel mills is improving, the iron - water output has stopped falling and stabilized, and the production of the five major steel products has remained stable. During the off - season, the demand is seasonally weakening, and the pressure of inventory accumulation is emerging. Based on the subsequent resumption of production by steel mills and winter - storage replenishment, the downside space of furnace materials is limited, and the cost side has support. However, due to the inventory accumulation pressure and lack of fundamental highlights, the futures market faces upward pressure, and it is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [8] 6. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index increased by 1.13% to 2503.03, the Commodity 20 Index increased by 1.44% to 2879.55, the industrial products index increased by 0.40% to 2369.84, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.19% to 1461.06 [102] - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index on January 26, 2026, was 1989.86, with a daily decline of 0.36%, a 5 - day increase of 0.93%, a 1 - month increase of 0.69%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.70% [103]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant achievements during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing economic resilience and development in Henan province despite challenges such as the pandemic and various risks. Group 1: Economic Performance - The province's GDP reached 6.66 trillion yuan, with total fiscal revenue at 701.9 billion yuan, and industrial enterprises' revenue at 5 trillion yuan. Retail sales of consumer goods totaled 2.9 trillion yuan, while total import and export value was 935.67 billion yuan [1] - The province has 11.605 million business entities, and the urbanization rate of the permanent population is 60% [1] Group 2: Industrial Transformation - Strategic emerging industries accounted for over 25% of the industrial added value, with seven major industrial clusters contributing over 70% to the industrial output [1] - The province boasts three global "lighthouse factories," 16 national-level excellent smart factories, 450 specialized and innovative "little giants," 59 manufacturing champions, 12,800 national high-tech enterprises, and 30,000 technology-based SMEs [1] Group 3: Rural Revitalization - The article mentions effective measures taken for rural revitalization, although specific details are not provided [1] Group 4: Reform and Opening Up - Strategic restructuring was achieved for 19 enterprises, including China Pingmei Shenma Group and Henan International Group. The establishment of new entities like Henan Rural Commercial Bank was also noted [1] - 3.7 million new business entities were added, with leading companies like Muyuan, Yutong, and Hualan expanding, alongside the emergence of new enterprises like Pandonglai and Mixue Ice City [1] Group 5: Environmental Improvement - The water quality of the Yellow River has met Class II standards for six consecutive years, and the water quality of the South-to-North Water Diversion project remains stable at Class II or above [1] Group 6: Social Welfare - Urban employment increased by 6.037 million, with 2.462 million rural laborers transferring to new jobs. The per capita disposable income of residents grew by an average of 6% annually [1]

Group 1 - The extreme cold weather, with temperatures dropping below -40℃, poses significant challenges for energy supply in regions like Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang [1][2] - National Energy Investment Corporation's Baiyinhuamon East Coal Mine has proactively entered a supply guarantee mode, maintaining a 95% equipment utilization rate and ensuring high coal stock levels to meet winter demands [2][3] - The Shenhua Group's coal mine in Ordos has established a comprehensive supply guarantee system, focusing on stable underground production and smooth surface operations during harsh weather [3][4] Group 2 - The coal production team at the coal mine is utilizing intelligent numerical simulation technology to optimize coal cutting efficiency, achieving a daily average output of over 15,000 tons and maintaining a 98% equipment operating rate [4] - The coal transportation process has implemented a "frost prevention" response to ensure the smooth operation of rail coal transport channels during the cold wave [4] - The "Warm Nuclear No. 1" project in Shandong has successfully introduced nuclear energy for heating in three cities, showcasing a new model for clean energy heating that can be replicated nationwide [5]

展望"十五五"，陕西煤业将以高质量发展为统领，围绕"打造世界一流专业领军企业"目标，以"增量、 提质、转型"为路径，以"持续增强核心功能、提升核心竞争力"为主线，聚焦主责主业，夯实发展根 基，在重点突破中开新局，在实干笃行中谋新篇，努力实现规模与质量双提升。 （文章来源：证券时报） 数据显示，"十四五"时期，陕西煤业新增探明储量23.31亿吨；新增产能合计4700万吨/年，较"十三 五"末增长49.74%。"十四五"累计生产原煤近8亿吨，规模效应持续放大，稳居行业头部地位。 除了生产规模持续攀升，陕西煤业在绿色发展、科技创新、"四化"建设、价值创造等方面均实现了一系 列革新。这直接带动陕西煤业行业影响大幅提升。"十四五"时期，公司先后参与制定国家及行业标准规 范20项，入选首批"管理标杆创建行动标杆企业"和"世界一流专业领军企业"创建名单；全国、省级五一 劳动奖状（章）新增14个，15家单位荣获省级文明（标兵）单位，国企形象彰显有力，企业知名度和影 响力大幅增强。 "十四五"时期，面临市场供需多变等复杂局面，陕西煤业齐心协力、奋勇争先，全力"打造三个标杆、 营造一个氛围"，各项工作实现质的突破，企业核心竞争力 ...