1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information about the report's investment rating for the industry is provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On December 25, 2025, all four major index futures contracts for the current month rose. The overall sentiment is positive, with the market expected to be volatile but on an upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Futures Data Tracking - **Price and Change**: The closing prices of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all increased, with gains of 0.18%, 0.25%, 0.80%, and 0.97% respectively. The corresponding index futures contracts also showed varying degrees of increase [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The total trading volume of index futures decreased, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 11,854, 7,004, 12,456, and 14,596 lots respectively. In terms of open interest, IF and IC decreased by 563 and 3,891 lots respectively, IH increased by 197 lots, and IM decreased by 3,977 lots [1][2]. - **Basis**: The basis data for different index futures contracts are presented, showing the differences between the futures prices and the spot prices [1]. 3.2 Top 20 Member Positions in Index Futures - The data shows the changes in long and short positions of the top 20 members in different index futures contracts. For example, in the IF2601 contract, long positions decreased by 1,522 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,499 lots [5]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1, indicating a relatively neutral - to - slightly bullish trend [6]. 3.4 Important Drivers - The offshore RMB against the US dollar broke through the 7.0 mark during intraday trading for the first time since September 2024. Most views believe that the RMB against the US dollar has the basis for continued appreciation in 2026 [6]. - From January to November this year, 25,800 urban old residential areas were newly started for renovation across the country, and 22 regions and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps have completed their annual renovation plans [6]. 3.5 Market Conditions - The Politburo held a meeting to study and deploy the work of improving Party conduct, building a clean government, and combating corruption in 2026 [7]. - The A - share market continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index recording seven consecutive positive days. The trading volume reached 1.94 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the previous day. Some sectors such as commercial aerospace and paper - making performed strongly, while others like Hainan Free Trade Zone and precious metals weakened [7].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 股指： 周四沪指全天震荡走强，录得7连阳，深成指、创业板指探底回升。个股涨多跌少，沪深京三市超3700 股飘红，今日成交1.94万亿。截止收盘沪指涨0.47%，深成指涨0.33%，创业板指涨0.3%。近期，股指期 货市场围绕10月以来的中枢下沿持续震荡，大小盘指数分化有限，板块间轮动频繁，市场情绪相对温 和。12月政治局会议与中央经济工作会议相继召开，短期内政策对市场的影响有望增强。从政策表述来 看，重要会议提到"实现'十五五'良好开局"，预计明年5%的GDP增长目标不会改变。政策发力方向仍主 要集中在"稳内需"和"促进新质生产力快速发展"。会议提到，"必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结 合"，提振居民收入水平和消费能力是宏观通胀预期回升的重要条件。同时强调"保持必要财政赤字、债 务总规模和支出总量"，表明明年财政政策与货币政策组合发力的政策不会改变，规模可能较今年小幅 提升。海外方面，尽管美联储如期降息25bp，且重启扩表计划，但点阵图显示2026年降息预期存在分 化，美股科技股出现震荡。同时，日本央行也将于近期召开议息会议，关注加息对套息交易 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Fundamental - based Judgments - **Trend空头**: Carbonate lithium, zinc, caustic soda, plastic, ferromanganese - silicon, live pigs, ferrosilicon, SSE 50 stock index futures, five - year treasury bond futures, CSI 300 stock index futures, CSI 1000 index futures, CSI 500 stock index futures, corn, eggs, urea, methanol, pulp, logs, offset printing paper, red dates, coking coal, soda ash, glass, apples, coke [2] - **Oscillating偏空**: Ethylene glycol, crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, industrial silicon, thirty - year treasury bond futures, ten - year treasury bond futures, two - year treasury bond futures, synthetic rubber [2] - **Oscillating**: Lead, zinc, aluminum, tin, copper, palm oil, plastic, rebar, corn, glass, PVC, soybean No.1, asphalt, gold, coking coal, polypropylene, ferromanganese - silicon, silver, Zhengzhou cotton [2][4] - **Oscillating偏多**: Rubber, polysilicon, bottle chips, PTA, staple fiber, p - xylene, fuel oil, cotton, cotton yarn [2] - **Trend多头**: None Quant - based Judgments - **偏空**: Rapeseed meal, sugar, PTA, methanol, lead, rubber, coke [4] - **Oscillating**: Zinc, palm oil, plastic, aluminum, rebar, tin, copper, soybean No.2, glass, PVC, soybean No.1, asphalt, gold, coking coal, polypropylene, ferromanganese - silicon, silver, Zhengzhou cotton [4] - **偏多**: Soybean meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, iron ore, eggs, corn starch, hot - rolled coil [4] 3. Key Points by Directory Macro News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to study and deploy the work on improving Party conduct, building a clean government and combating corruption in 2026, emphasizing anti - corruption and enhancing the comprehensive effectiveness of corruption governance [6] - On December 25, the offshore RMB against the US dollar rose above the "7" mark, and the on - shore RMB approached "7". The RMB is expected to appreciate in 2026 without a unilateral trend [6] - JD announced its 2025 year - end bonus plan, with 92% of employees getting full or excess bonuses, and the total bonus input increasing by over 70% year - on - year. There are also rumors of salary increases at BYD, ByteDance, and CATL [6] - The Ministry of Commerce opposed the US imposing 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products, promoted compliant rare - earth magnet exports, and hoped for a balanced solution for TikTok's agreement with investors [7] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange approved the IPO application of Dapu Micro, the first unprofitable company on the Growth Enterprise Market to pass the review [7] - Israeli officials signaled a possible military conflict with Iran over Iran's efforts to rebuild its ballistic missile arsenal [7] - Morgan Stanley strategists pointed out three potential "surprises" in the US stock market in 2026: "job - less productivity improvement", the return of the inverse relationship between stocks and bonds, and a sharp rise in commodity and energy prices [7] Macro - finance Stock Index Futures - The A - share market continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.47%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.33%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.3%. The market turnover was 1.94 trillion yuan [9] - The central bank's MLF operation had a net injection of 100 billion yuan, and if bond purchases reached 350 billion yuan this month, it would be the largest - scale operation. The urgency for interest - rate cuts is low [9] - Pay attention to the sustainability of liquidity repair and structure. If the conditions are met, the index may strengthen, and focus on IH [9] Treasury Bond Futures - The short - and medium - term bonds may oscillate strongly, but the odds are more important than the direction. The capital is balanced and loose, and the capital interest rates are stable [10] - The central bank's MLF operation had a net injection of 100 billion yuan. Without interest - rate cuts, the market sentiment may decline, and bonds within 10 years will oscillate [10] Black Commodities Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate and rise in the short term. Pay attention to the production at coal mines, safety inspections, downstream raw - material winter storage, and changes in hot - metal production [12] - The production of coal mines has decreased slightly, and the third round of coke price cuts has been implemented. The demand for raw materials from steel mills has declined in the short term [12] - Due to "anti - involution" and "over - production inspection" policies, the supply of coking coal is expected to shrink, but the potential negative feedback from the steel industry may limit the price increase [12] Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, the end - of - session rally may stimulate hedging, and the sustainability of high prices needs attention. Manganese - silicon is weak, and focus on the new capacity launch before the end of January. In the medium term, both are bearish on rallies [13] - On December 25, the auction price of Hongliulin lump coal increased, with a decrease in the auction volume [13] Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, wait and see; for glass, try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes [14] - Soda ash supply is at a low level due to some enterprises' maintenance, and cost increases have weakened the upstream's willingness to start production. Glass supply reduction expectations have less impact, and spot sentiment is weak [14] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - As of December 25, the domestic zinc inventory decreased. Tianjin and Guangdong saw inventory declines. After the fading of macro - positive factors, the price is expected to oscillate downward. Hold short positions [16] - In November 2025, the import of zinc concentrates increased significantly, with a year - on - year increase of 13.84% and a cumulative increase of 33.74% from January to November [16][17] Lead - As of December 25, the social inventory of lead decreased. The trading activity in the lead spot market declined. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. Wait and see, and aggressive investors can enter short positions at high prices [18][19] Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals are showing signs of weakening in the short term, but the long - term demand is positive. Look for buying opportunities after the price correction [20] Industrial Silicon - Environmental disturbances in Xinjiang and strong coking - coal prices have provided some valuation - repair space, but the rebound is under pressure. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options on rallies [21] Polysilicon - Exchange risk - control measures have tightened, and the trading volume may cool down. The expected price increase of downstream silicon wafers will support the spot price of polysilicon, and the price is expected to be strong [22] Agricultural Products Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. The pre - festival restocking demand has boosted the cotton price. The US cotton production and inventory have increased, while the global production has slightly decreased [23][24] - The domestic commercial and port inventories are accumulating, but the low industrial inventory of textile enterprises and policy expectations support the price [24] Sugar - The domestic sugar market is in a season of high supply and demand, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures are undervalued, with a technical rebound. Wait and see [25] - The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in 2025/26, but some institutions have lowered the surplus forecast. The domestic supply pressure is increasing, and the demand for pre - holiday stocking will start [26][27] Eggs - The commodity market sentiment is strong, and the pre - January festival stocking demand may increase, leading to short - covering in the near - term contracts and a price rebound. The supply - demand pattern is still loose, and the price increase space is limited before the Spring Festival [28] - The far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of a possible decline in the laying - hen inventory, but this expectation cannot be verified or falsified for now. Wait and see [28][29] Apples - The apple futures price may oscillate. The apple出库 is slightly lower than the same period last year, and the sales in the distribution areas are slow. The good - quality apple price is firm [30][31] - The national cold - storage inventory ratio is 53.31%, and the inventory is 7.021 million tons, lower than the same period last year. Citrus fruits are on the market, affecting apple sales [31] Corn - The corn price may oscillate in the short term. Wait and see and pay attention to farmers' selling sentiment [33] - The domestic corn spot price is mixed. The supply - demand mismatch is easing, but the far - term contracts face pressure from supply [33] Red Dates - The market is in a stage of concentrated new - product arrival, with supply pressure. The price may oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to the sales progress in the distribution areas and downstream purchasing sentiment [34] Live Pigs - The supply - demand pattern is still supply - strong and demand - weak. The expectation of a sharp price increase during the Winter Solstice was false, and the price is expected to oscillate downward. Go short on the near - term contracts on rallies [34][35] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The escalating situation in Venezuela has led to a rapid rebound in oil prices, but the impact is limited. In the medium term, the oil price may decline due to oversupply and the easing of geopolitical tensions [37] - The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2602 contract rose to 444.7 yuan/barrel at night [37] Fuel Oil - Geopolitical and macro - factors dominate the oil price. The supply of fuel oil is loose, and the demand is weak. The price will follow the oil price, and the inventory is increasing [38] Plastics - Polyolefins have high supply pressure and weak downstream demand, but the upstream losses may provide some support. The price is expected to oscillate [39] Synthetic Rubber - Continue to focus on the strategy of buying RU and selling BR. The butadiene inventory has increased, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term but may not maintain high prices [40] Methanol - The current supply - demand situation of methanol has improved slightly, and the inventory is gradually decreasing. Do not be overly bearish in the short term. Consider a slightly long - biased allocation for the far - term contracts after the inventory reduction is smooth [41][42] Caustic Soda - The near - term contracts of caustic soda are close to the real - world situation and are relatively weak, while the far - term contracts have many macro - positive expectations. Keep a bearish view on the main 03 contract [43] Asphalt - The asphalt price is expected to have a larger fluctuation range. The focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [44] Polyester Industry Chain - The market benefits have been gradually realized, and the downstream negative feedback is increasing. Consider reducing long positions on rallies [44] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG futures price has entered the delivery logic. The supply is abundant globally, and the demand has both supporting and constraining factors. The price is expected to oscillate [47] Pulp - The pulp port inventory has decreased continuously, and the spot price is firm. The market sentiment has improved, but there may be hedging pressure. Wait and see in the short term [48] Logs - The log market fundamentals are oscillating, and the spot price has stabilized. The market is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance [49] Urea - The urea market is expected to oscillate. The upstream production reduction is positive for the market. Pay attention to the basis pressure when the futures expectations are too strong [50]

客服产品系列•日评 焦炭：港口焦炭现货市场报价下跌，日照港准一级冶金焦现货价格 1460 元/吨，较上期价格跌 20 元/吨。供 应方面，原料焦煤价格继续下跌，给焦企仍留有一定的利润，区域内焦企开工积极性尚可，焦企多维持前期开工 水平，供给端稳中有升。需求端，部分钢厂进入检修期，钢厂高炉日耗被明显压制，钢厂对原料采购持谨慎态度， 钢厂盈利能力一般，多有控制到货现象。 焦煤：山西临汾地区主焦煤（A11、S3.5、G92）上调 7 元至出厂价 1097 元/吨，甘其毛都口岸蒙 5#原煤 996 元/吨，价格涨 31；蒙 3#精煤 1050 元/吨，较上期价格不变。供应端，部分矿井已经完成了年度任务，逐渐有矿 井限产、停产中间贸易环节以对后市持观望态度，个别地区部分煤种出货有所放缓。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【郑糖】受假期因素影响空头平仓推动美糖周三震荡走高。因上一个交易日涨幅较大受技术面影响郑糖 2605 月合约周四震荡休整。夜盘。郑糖 2605 月合约波动不大延续震荡整理走势。农业咨询机构 Safras & Mercado 表示，巴西中南部地区 2026/27 年度糖产量料达到 3,800 万吨，较上一榨季减少 ...

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 市场谨慎观望，焦煤低位运行 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空交织，焦炭低位震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 12 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口 ...

12月26日，广期所铂期货主力合约触及涨停板，日内涨9.99%，现报709.85元/克，再创上市以来新 高。 更多最新消息： 商务部回应美将对中国半导体加征301关税；泽连斯基与美特使通话，推进俄乌和平计划磋商；西安 至延安高铁今日开通运营丨早报 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 以色列警告可能再次打击伊朗，央行开展 1771 亿元逆回购 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-12-26 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 以色列警告可能再次打击伊朗 以色列对伊朗发动打击的可能性明显上升，因此需要关注地缘 风险的变化，美元指数短期震荡。 宏观策略（国债期货） 央行开展了 1771 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 综 央行增加购债规模的概率较大，机构交易结构较为脆弱的问题 正在得到缓解，且近期稳增长政策也相对有限，长债震荡转涨 的概率较高。 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 前 11 月新开工改造老旧小区已完成全年计划 报 A 股延续上涨，沪指录得 7 连阳，全 A 成交额稳定在 1.9 万亿左 右。商业航天、存储芯片等题材涨幅较大。预计沪指将在短期 内冲击 4000 点。 黑色金属（铁矿石） 1-11 月全国新开工改造城镇老旧小区 2.58 万个 本周铁水预计继续下行 1-2 万吨，市场关注 1 月份铁水是否继续 下滑。本周五大材库存明显去化，非五大材库存小幅攀升。预 计短期基本面仍将承压，以弱势震荡为主。 有色金属（锡） 美未来 18 个月不对中国芯片加征额外关税 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) is set to launch series options for soybean meal and corn on February 2, 2026, aimed at enhancing risk management tools for the agricultural sector [1][2]. Group 1: Series Options Overview - Series options will be introduced alongside existing conventional options, covering 12 expiration months, which is a common practice in global commodity options markets [1][2]. - The introduction of series options is expected to lower the cost for option buyers, with premiums for one-month expiration soybean meal options being approximately 28% lower compared to conventional options [1][2]. Group 2: Market Impact and Participation - The launch of series options is anticipated to enrich the expiration structure of the options market, thereby increasing trading willingness among investors [2]. - In 2025, DCE's soybean meal options ranked first globally in trading volume among agricultural options, while corn options ranked eighth, indicating strong market participation [2]. Group 3: Design Features and Industry Needs - Series options are characterized by "late listing, early expiration, and short duration," typically listed about five months before the underlying futures contract's delivery month, with a lifespan of approximately three and a half months [3]. - This design aligns well with the short-term risk management needs of industries, particularly benefiting small and medium enterprises that may struggle with standard futures hedging due to capital constraints [3]. Group 4: Future Developments - DCE plans to ensure a smooth launch and trading of the soybean meal and corn series options while enhancing market awareness and participation [4]. - The exchange will continue to monitor the performance of series options and explore additional short-term options tools to provide more diverse and precise risk management solutions [4].

Core Insights - The options tools are transitioning from a niche market to a mainstream industry, driven by an improved market ecosystem and collaboration between exchanges and futures companies [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Dongwu Futures, registered in Shanghai and controlled by Dongwu Securities, has a registered capital of 1.0318 billion yuan and operates 29 branches nationwide [1] - The company has established a comprehensive service network through its risk management subsidiary, Shanghai Dongwu Jiuying Investment Management Co., Ltd., aiming to become a leading comprehensive service provider for derivatives in the Yangtze River Delta region [1] Group 2: Market Engagement and Education - Dongwu Futures emphasizes tailored solutions for specific enterprise pain points rather than generic services, enhancing its core competitiveness [2] - The company has seen a 24% year-on-year increase in participants for the "Zhengshang Options Special Award" competition, with 2,593 participants in 2025, reflecting the effectiveness of its investor education and diverse research services [2] Group 3: Trading Strategies and Market Trends - During the competition, the popularity of options trading highlighted the market's recognition of the tool's value, with increased participation from traders and enterprises [4] - The company has designed specific trading strategies, such as a sell-wide spread strategy for a textile enterprise, to help manage risks and optimize procurement costs [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company anticipates that the promotion of new tools like short-term options will make the options market a crucial breakthrough for serving the real economy [4] - Dongwu Futures plans to continue its efforts in cultivating the options market and promoting the widespread application of options tools in the real economy, contributing to the high-quality development of China's derivatives market [4]

近日，随着第八届"郑商所杯"全国大学生金融模拟交易大赛（简称"郑商所杯"）吹响收官哨声，这场持 续数月的校园金融盛事圆满落幕。期货日报记者了解到，作为国内期货行业极具影响力的校园投教标杆 赛事，"郑商所杯"自创办起便肩负着培育金融后备人才、深化产教融合的使命。而在中原地区这片培养 金融人才的沃土上，中原期货作为主力军，已连续8年全程深度参与赛事的组织、筹备与推广，成为这 场校园金融盛事背后不可或缺的护航者。 在本届大赛中，中原期货凭借扎实的组织能力和深入的校园动员，成功吸引了3225名学生报名参赛，规 模创历史新高；公司也再度将"郑商所杯"优秀组织奖收入囊中——这已是其连续3年获此殊荣。这份荣 誉，不仅印证了"郑商所杯"在推动产教融合中的核心价值，也凝聚着行业对中原期货长期投身人才培育 的高度认可。 以赛为媒 才启新篇 依托郑州"天地之中"的区位优势，中原期货以"郑商所杯"为纽带，织就了一张覆盖全省高校的人才培育 网络。在本届赛事启动前，公司便提前部署，组建起由投教专员、资深分析师与业务骨干构成的专项服 务团队走进校园。 以中原投资者教育基地为平台，公司与河南财经政法大学、洛阳理工学院、黄河科技学院等多所高校 ...