Core Insights - Major industry ETFs in the US stock market showed mixed performance, with the semiconductor ETF declining over 1% while the internet stock index ETF rose more than 0.5% [1] Group 1: Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor ETF (us SMH) closed at 283.77, down by 3.72 points, which is a decrease of 1.29% with a trading volume of 557,600 shares [2] Group 2: Energy Sector - The energy sector ETF (us XLE) ended at 88.54, down by 0.59 points, reflecting a decline of 0.66% with a trading volume of 1,559,000 shares [2] Group 3: Technology Sector - The technology sector ETF (us XLK) closed at 254.34, decreasing by 1.51 points, which is a drop of 0.59% with a trading volume of 278,600 shares [2] - The global technology stock ETF (us IXN) finished at 92.69, down by 0.55 points, also a decline of 0.59% with a trading volume of 8,023 shares [2] Group 4: Healthcare Sector - The healthcare sector ETF (us XLV) closed at 134.83, down by 0.36 points, a decrease of 0.27% with a trading volume of 875,700 shares [2] - The biotechnology index ETF (us IBB) ended at 131.37, down by 0.22 points, which is a decline of 0.17% with a trading volume of 57,942 shares [2] Group 5: Consumer Sector - The consumer staples ETF (us XLP) closed at 80.75, down by 0.06 points, a decrease of 0.07% with a trading volume of 865,700 shares [2] - The consumer discretionary ETF (us XLY) finished at 221.47, slightly up by 0.04 points, reflecting an increase of 0.02% with a trading volume of 235,100 shares [2] Group 6: Airline Sector - The global airline industry ETF (US JETS) closed at 24.99, down by 0.04 points, a decrease of 0.15% with a trading volume of 124,200 shares [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the performance and key statistics of the Morgan S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend Index A fund, which has shown positive growth in various time frames [1] - As of July 14, 2025, the latest net value of the fund is 1.1952 yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.80% [1] - The fund's performance over the past month is a return of 3.49%, ranking 2290 out of 3997 in its category; over the past six months, it has returned 19.74%, ranking 549 out of 3436; and year-to-date, it has achieved a return of 14.58%, ranking 472 out of 3426 [1] Group 2 - The top ten stock holdings of the fund account for a total of 26.77%, with significant positions in companies such as Far East Horizon (4.00%), Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (3.33%), and Hang Lung Properties (3.25%) [1] - The fund was established on December 4, 2017, and as of March 31, 2025, it has a total asset size of 1.277 billion yuan [1] - The fund is managed by Hu Di and He Zhihao, both of whom have extensive backgrounds in finance and investment management [2]

Group 1: Automotive Manufacturing Chain Risks - The U.S. plans to tighten local content rules, increasing the domestic parts localization rate from 75% to 80%, creating a dilemma for Chinese auto parts manufacturers in Mexico [1] - In Mexico, there is a significant investment surge with $1.45 billion in Q1 2025, a 134% year-on-year increase, but hidden costs are becoming apparent [3] - The cost structure comparison shows that labor costs in the nearshore model in Mexico are 180% of traditional models, while compliance costs are higher due to USMCA origin verification requirements [3] Group 2: Energy Alliance Restructuring - The U.S. imposes a 10% tariff on imported mineral fuels, which constitutes 51.9% of U.S. imports, pressuring Chinese energy companies to accelerate LNG terminal construction and shift focus to Japan and South Korea, despite a 25% increase in transportation costs [2] - Chinese companies are also looking to process shale gas in Mexico, utilizing the tax-free zone at the U.S.-Mexico border to shift production capacity [2] - U.S. supply chain scrutiny is increasing, requiring rare earth companies to prepare comprehensive production evidence [2] Group 3: Export Strategies for U.S. Exporters - Tax base optimization strategies include using offshore companies for multi-layer transactions and splitting vehicle exports into parts to benefit from lower tariffs on intermediate goods [5] - Market access strategies involve leveraging Kazakhstan's auto parts park and utilizing UAE free trade zones for re-labeling to obtain "Arabian-made" certificates [5] - Technology-intensive companies are converting tariff costs into R&D investments and obtaining EU carbon footprint certifications to avoid carbon tariffs while achieving a 15% premium [5] Group 4: Broader Implications - The conflict illustrates the harsh reality that in the "G0 era" of de-globalization, supply chain resilience is no longer based on tight interdependence but rather on redundant backups to withstand turmoil [7] - The North American free trade ideal is being fragmented by zero-sum games, as Mexico finds itself caught between U.S. tariff wars and nearshore outsourcing opportunities [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures contracts on July 14, 2025, including股指期货,国债 futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, energy futures, and agricultural product futures. It also analyzes the market conditions on July 11, 2025, and provides some macro - economic information and trading tips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, IM2509 are expected to be strongly volatile. Resistance and support levels are provided for each contract [2][31]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2509 and thirty - year TL2509 are likely to have wide - range fluctuations, with corresponding support and resistance levels [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold (AU2510) will be strongly volatile, and silver (AG2510) will be strongly volatile and may hit a new high. Resistance and support levels are given [2][3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper (CU2508) will be range - bound, aluminum (AL2508) will be weakly volatile, zinc (ZN2508) and nickel (NI2508) will be weakly volatile, while tin (SN2508), alumina (AO2509) will be strongly volatile, with support and resistance levels for each [3][4]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil (SC2508) and fuel oil (FU2509) will be strongly volatile, and PTA (TA509) will be strongly volatile, with corresponding support and resistance levels [7]. - **Agricultural Product Futures**: Soybean oil (Y2509) and palm oil (P2509) will be strongly volatile, while corn (C2509) and natural rubber (RU2509) will be weakly volatile, with support and resistance levels [7][8]. 3.2 Macro - economic Information - The 2025 SCO Digital Economy Forum was held, and 12 digital economy cooperation projects were signed. The Ministry of Finance promotes long - term and stable investment of insurance funds. Diplomatic activities between China and the US, Russia, etc. were carried out [9][10]. - The second - quarter high - frequency data in China showed improvement in consumption, investment, etc. The US imposed tariffs on multiple countries, which affected the global trade and financial markets [12]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - related Information - The IEA adjusted the growth expectations of global oil supply and demand. International oil prices rose on July 11, 2025, and international precious metal futures generally closed higher. London base metals mostly closed lower [17][18][19]. 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 11, 2025, IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, IM2509 showed different trends, with some hitting new highs. The market is expected to be strongly volatile in July 2025 [21][22][23]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On July 11, 2025, the ten - year T2509 had a slight decline, and the thirty - year TL2509 had a slight increase. They are expected to have wide - range fluctuations on July 14 [50][52]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold (AU2510) had a slight increase on July 11, 2025, and is expected to be strongly volatile in July and on July 14. Silver (AG2510) hit a new high on July 12, 2025, and is expected to continue to rise [55][61]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Different base metal futures showed various trends on July 11, 2025, and their trends on July 14 and in July 2025 are predicted [74][78][83]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil (SC2508) and fuel oil (FU2509) had different trends on July 11, 2025, and their future trends are forecasted [128][132]. - **Other Futures**: Industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, glass, soda ash, caustic soda futures all have their own trends on July 11, 2025, and future trends are predicted [100][102][105].

Core Insights - In June, China's imports increased by 2.3% year-on-year, marking the first growth since February this year, while exports rose by 5.2%, reaching the second-highest monthly trade volume in history [1] - Notably, rare earth exports surged to 7,742.2 tons in June, a 32.4% month-on-month increase and a 60% year-on-year increase, reaching the highest level since 2009 [2] - Iron ore imports reached nearly 106 million tons in June, the highest level of the year, supported by strong steel exports [3] Import and Export Data - June saw significant increases in various commodities: - Soybean imports remained high at 12.26 million tons, up 10.35% year-on-year [3] - Crude oil imports approached 50 million tons, a three-month high, with a year-on-year increase of 7.39% [3] - Natural gas imports rose to 10.54 million tons, the highest since January, with a year-on-year increase of 1.14% [3] - Conversely, coal imports plummeted to 33 million tons, the lowest level since February 2023, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 25.93% [3][5] Trade Dynamics - The steel export volume for the second quarter exceeded market expectations, with finished steel exports reaching 30.7 million tons, an 11% year-on-year increase [2] - Despite the U.S. imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum, exports to Southeast Asia and the Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia, have increased [2] - The overall import value of major commodities is significantly influenced by international price fluctuations, with crude oil, iron ore, and soybeans seeing price declines that affected overall import growth [7]

Group 1 - Developed markets experienced a decline, with the S&P 500 down 0.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.0% [2][4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 8 basis points to 4.4%, while the dollar index increased by 0.9% to 97.87 [2][4] - Emerging markets showed mixed performance, with indices like the Ho Chi Minh Index and the Korea Composite Index rising by 5.1% and 4.0% respectively, while the Brazilian IBOVESPA and Indian SENSEX30 fell by 3.6% and 1.1% [4][9] Group 2 - The U.S. announced an increase in tariffs on 14 countries, effective August 1, with rates as high as 50% on copper products [2][65] - The June FOMC meeting minutes revealed a division among Federal Reserve officials regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation, with some believing it would have a temporary effect while others anticipated a more lasting impact [2][81] - Eurozone retail sales fell by 0.7% month-on-month in May, indicating a slowdown in consumer confidence [2][84] Group 3 - The U.S. fiscal deficit for 2025 reached $804.4 billion, up from $772.5 billion in the same period last year, with total expenditures at $4.4 trillion [69][70] - The demand for U.S. Treasury auctions remained robust, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.08 for 4-week bills and 2.61 for 10-year notes, indicating strong interest from investors [67][68] - Commodity prices generally increased, with WTI crude oil rising by 2.9% to $68.5 per barrel and COMEX gold up by 0.8% to $3,359.8 per ounce [48][54]

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index (HSSCHKY) has shown strong performance, with significant increases in constituent stocks, indicating a favorable environment for high dividend assets in the Hong Kong market [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 14, 2025, the HSSCHKY index rose by 1.09%, with notable gains from stocks such as China Shenhua (up 5.00%) and China Gas (up 2.30%) [3]. - The Bosera Hang Seng High Dividend ETF (513690) has increased by 0.76%, marking its third consecutive rise, with a latest price of 1.05 yuan [3]. - Over the past two years, the Bosera Hang Seng High Dividend ETF has seen a net value increase of 41.17%, ranking 98 out of 2229 index equity funds [5]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Liquidity - The Bosera Hang Seng High Dividend ETF has a current scale of 4.697 billion yuan, with recent fund inflows remaining balanced [4]. - In the last five trading days, there were net inflows on four occasions, totaling 63.78 million yuan, with an average daily net inflow of 12.76 million yuan [4]. - The ETF's financing net purchase reached 4.6852 million yuan, with a latest financing balance of 10.7677 million yuan [4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Long-term foreign capital is increasingly investing in Chinese equity assets, with significant investments from entities like German pension funds and Barclays Bank [3]. - The demand for defensive asset allocation has increased, particularly in high dividend stocks, as investors adjust their risk preferences [4]. - The upcoming months are expected to see a filling of rights and dividends for high dividend stocks, providing potential investment opportunities [4]. Group 4: Performance Metrics - The Bosera Hang Seng High Dividend ETF has achieved a maximum monthly return of 24.18% since inception, with an average monthly return of 4.96% [5]. - The ETF's Sharpe ratio over the past year stands at 1.55, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns [5]. - The tracking error for the ETF over the past month is 0.052%, demonstrating its close alignment with the HSSCHKY index [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant impact of the proposed 50% tariff on imported copper in the U.S., leading to a surge in copper futures prices and an increase in copper theft incidents across various sectors [1]. Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - The U.S. plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper, causing a sharp rise in copper futures prices on the New York Commodity Exchange [1]. - Copper has become a primary target for theft in the U.S., with reports indicating that it is now the "number one emerging theft target" [1]. Group 2: Applications and Theft Trends - Copper is widely used in industries such as data centers, automotive, and energy, making it a valuable commodity [1]. - The increase in copper prices has led to a rise in theft incidents, with criminal gangs targeting not only stored copper but also entire shipments in transit [1]. - The rate of copper theft from trucks is reportedly accelerating faster than the increase in copper prices [1].

Group 1: Credit Bond ETFs and Fund Performance - Credit bond ETFs have seen strong inflows this year, with a total scale nearing 230 billion yuan and a net subscription amount exceeding 160 billion yuan as of July 9 [1] - In June alone, the net subscription amount reached 84 billion yuan, driven by factors such as coupon advantages, activated pledge functions, and trading convenience [1] - Multiple bond funds reported over 100% growth in scale during Q2, attributed to a stable macroeconomic environment and increased investor confidence in fixed-income products [1][2] Group 2: Equity Funds and Market Trends - Several equity funds have disclosed their Q2 reports, revealing that fund managers have increased stock positions and maintained high operational levels [2] - Investment opportunities in sectors such as robotics, fintech, and pharmaceuticals have gained favor among fund managers [2] Group 3: Banking Sector Dividends - As of July 13, 35 out of 42 A-share listed banks have announced their annual dividend distributions for 2024 [2] - The increase in dividend payout ratios is expected to support bank stock prices and enhance the quality of bank operations [2] Group 4: Commodity Prices and Market Outlook - Copper prices have fluctuated between 72,073 yuan/ton and 82,725 yuan/ton in the first half of the year, with expectations of a potential upward trend in the medium to long term [2] - Factors such as macroeconomic support from potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may bolster copper prices [2] Group 5: Company Developments - Canada Goose's controlling shareholder, Bain Capital, is considering selling part or all of its stake, currently holding 60.5% of multiple voting shares [4] - North Chip Life Technology is set to hold its IPO review on July 18, focusing on innovative medical devices for cardiovascular diseases [5] - Zhixing Technology plans to place 15.495 million new H-shares, expecting to raise approximately 230 million HKD for various development projects [6] - Time Space Technology's shareholder plans to reduce their stake by up to 3% between August 5 and November 4 [7] - ST Yundong anticipates a net loss of 100 million to 150 million yuan for the first half of the year due to declining sales prices [8] - China Shenhua expects a net profit of 23.6 billion to 25.6 billion yuan for the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13.2% to 20% [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant increase in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activities among state-controlled listed companies in the A-share market, driven by government reforms and policies [1][2] - As of July 13, 2023, there have been a total of 849 M&A cases involving state-controlled listed companies, representing a substantial increase of approximately 182% compared to the same period last year [1] - The number of major asset acquisitions, disposals, or swaps has also doubled from 12 cases last year to 25 cases this year, indicating a trend towards more significant transactions [1] Group 2 - The restructuring of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is focused on enhancing core competitiveness and addressing external challenges, particularly in the context of economic transformation and upgrading [1][2] - Notable examples of industry consolidation include the restructuring of the China Ordnance Equipment Group and significant asset acquisitions in the non-ferrous metals and energy sectors, such as Zijin Mining's acquisition of a stake in Zangge Mining [2] - The restructuring efforts are characterized by a strong focus on core responsibilities, resource integration, high marketization, and significant synergy effects, with innovative restructuring models emerging [2] Group 3 - In the "hard technology" sector, state-owned enterprises are increasingly engaging in M&A to strengthen their independent control over core technologies, reflecting a strategic shift from scale expansion to innovation-driven and value-creating approaches [3] - The integration of industrial chains through policy guidance, market operations, and technological innovation is expected to accelerate the development of core technologies and enhance the self-sufficiency of the industry [3] - Future restructuring of SOEs is anticipated to effectively utilize the advantages of strategic emerging industries, promoting rapid market application and facilitating the integration of new productive forces [3]