证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2026 年 02 月 27 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要指数涨跌不一。截止收盘，沪指上涨 0.39%，收 报 4162.88 点；深证成指跌 0.06%，收报 14495.09 点；创业板指跌 1.04%， 收报 3310.3 点；科创 50 指数涨 0.15%，收报 1488.02 点。总体上，全天个股 涨多跌少，Wind 数据显示，全市场 3267 只个股上涨，2066 只个股下跌，146 只个股收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 24880 亿元，较上个交易日缩量 504 亿元。 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业涨多跌少，钢铁、煤炭、有色金属、公用 事业、农林牧渔等行业领涨，涨幅分别为 3.37%、3.20%、3.10%、2.27%、2.06%， 建筑材料、通信、电子、汽车、家用电器等行业领跌，跌幅分别为 1.45%、1.38%、 0.71%、0.41%、0.39%。 概念板块涨跌情况：今日涨幅居前的概念板块为稀有金属精选、稀土、培育 钻石、小金 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in travel during the Spring Festival, with total passenger flow expected to reach 9.5 billion, marking a historical high. Self-driving remains the dominant mode of transport, with a daily average of 261 million trips, accounting for nearly 85% of total travel [13][35] - The report indicates a recovery in consumer spending, particularly in the retail and tourism sectors, driven by long holiday periods, consumption vouchers, and promotional events. Key retail and catering enterprises saw a daily average sales increase of 5.7% during the Spring Festival [25][30] - The film box office during the Spring Festival saw a significant decline, with revenues dropping to 5.752 billion, the lowest since 2018, and average ticket prices also decreased [31][34] Information Technology Industry - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index showed upward trends, with DRAM prices increasing and MLCC revenues rising significantly in January [4][7] - The report notes a general increase in prices across the semiconductor sector, with NAND index rising by 5.58% [8] Midstream Manufacturing - Prices in the new energy supply chain have generally increased, particularly for lithium raw materials, while sales growth in major engineering machinery companies showed mixed results [4][7] - The report mentions a decrease in the year-on-year growth rate of cargo throughput at Chinese ports, indicating a potential slowdown in midstream manufacturing activity [4][7] Consumer Demand - The report observes an increase in sugar prices, while pork prices have declined. The average wholesale price of pork fell by 0.17% [4][7] - The average ticket price for movies decreased by 5.9%, reflecting a broader trend of reduced consumer spending in the entertainment sector [31][34] Resource Products - The report indicates a decline in rebar prices, while coal prices remained stable. Brent crude oil prices increased, and the chemical product price index showed a general upward trend [4][7] - Industrial metal prices have generally risen, with copper, tin, zinc, cobalt, nickel, and aluminum prices increasing, while inventories for most metals have decreased [4][7] Financial and Real Estate Sector - The report highlights a net injection in the money market, with SHIBOR rates rising. A decrease in A-share turnover and daily transaction volume was noted [4][7] - The report indicates a decline in land transaction premium rates and a decrease in the area of commercial housing sold [4][7] Public Utilities - The report notes a decrease in natural gas ex-factory prices, while electricity generation growth rates have slowed [4][7]

山林、水域、耕地、草地等资源共同构成农业生产的生态本底，农林牧渔"一盘棋"发展是构建现代农业 产业体系、生产体系、经营体系的基础，也是顺应居民消费升级、构建多元化食物供给体系、践行"大 食物观"的必然要求，有利于提升资源要素的系统产出效率和综合承载能力，助力解决当前我国农业存 在的一些结构性矛盾。 从需求侧来看，老百姓的营养需求日益多元化、全面化和均衡化，食物消费结构升级，从吃得饱向吃得 好、吃得营养健康升级，但生产端仍存在普通产品阶段性过剩，优质、功能性农产品以及关键饲料品种 供给不足的问题。此外，产业链条较短，标准化、品牌化、精深加工能力偏弱。2025年，我国主要农产 品加工转化率为75%，低于发达国家水平，与建设现代化大产业要求存在差距。 从供给侧来看，农林牧渔各行业长期"单兵作战"，对资源间、产业间物质循环考虑与应用不足，面临耕 地退化、土壤污染、水体富营养化等资源环境问题。随着北粮南调与南水北调，粮食生产空间布局给资 源供给带来压力，区域间粮食生产与资源配置还存在优化空间。同时，小农户数量占农业经营主体98% 以上，虽然新型农业经营主体规模不断扩大，但利益联结机制还不稳固，叠加社会化服务体系对现代要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central government's focus is on transforming agriculture into a modernized large industry, emphasizing the need for a richer agricultural connotation, a more complete industrial system, and higher product added value [1]. Group 1: Agricultural Development Strategies - The government aims to promote a diversified food supply system by integrating agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, while ensuring ecological protection [1]. - There is a strong emphasis on enhancing post-production processes to increase the value of agricultural products, allowing farmers to share more in the industry's value-added benefits [1]. Group 2: Integration of Agriculture and Other Sectors - The development of new industries such as rural tourism and leisure agriculture is highlighted, with a focus on upgrading rural tourism to meet changing consumer demands [2]. - The promotion of "small and beautiful" cultural tourism models is intended to foster economic prosperity in rural areas [2].

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a slight increase with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4134.02 points, up 0.05%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 14283 points, up 0.86% [1][4] - The total trading volume of the entire A-share market reached 21,608 billion, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1][4] - Among the 30 sectors, 14 sectors saw gains, with electronics, power equipment and new energy, and computers leading the increase, while consumer services, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and comprehensive finance experienced significant declines [1][4] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices all closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.34%, the S&P 500 down 1.57%, and the Nasdaq down 2.03% [2][4] - Notable declines included Cisco dropping over 12% and Disney falling more than 5%, leading the Dow [2][4] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 3%, with Tencent Music dropping over 10% [2][4] News Highlights - U.S. President Trump is expected to visit China in April, with both leaders maintaining communication regarding trade relations [3][11] - The National Film Administration and the Ministry of Commerce are launching a "Film+" consumption pilot program to boost the film industry's contribution to economic growth [12][13] - The Ministry of Commerce announced that starting February 13, 2026, it will impose countervailing duties on imported dairy products from the EU [14] - A research team from Peking University has developed the world's first large-scale quantum communication chip network, achieving significant advancements in quantum key distribution [15][16]

写在文章前的声明：在本文之前的说明：本文中所列的投资信息，只是一个对基金资产净值进行排行的客观描述，并无主观倾向性，也不是投资建议，纯属 娱乐性质。 一顿操作猛如虎，基金净值已更新，谁是基金中的王者，谁又垫底，请看数据： 12日开放式基金净值增长排名后10的基金分别是：华夏中证动漫游戏ETF发起式联接D、华夏中证动漫游戏ETF发起式联接C、华夏中证动漫游戏ETF发起式 联接A、国泰中证动漫游戏ETF联接C、国泰中证动漫游戏ETF联接A、国泰中证动漫游戏ETF联接E、中航恒宇港股通价值优选混合发起C、中航恒宇港股通 价值优选混合发起A、汇添富国证港股通创新药ETF发起式联接C、汇添富国证港股通创新药ETF发起式联接A。 基金策略分析：上证指数横向震荡微涨报收，创业板高开高走小阳报收，成交额是2.16万亿，个股涨跌家数比2108：3280，涨跌停个股比69：22。 领涨行业：综合类、矿物制品、船舶、半导体、IT设备涨幅逾2%； 领涨概念：液冷服务器、CPO概念、英伟达、EDA概念、铜缆高速连接、汽车芯片、光通信、高压快充涨幅逾2%。 领跌行业：传媒娱乐、酒店餐饮、旅游、日用化工跌幅逾2%。 | 基金简称 PK | ...

Market Outlook - The report maintains a positive outlook on mid-cap blue chips, particularly in sectors like chemicals, agriculture, and non-ferrous metals, which are expected to benefit from price increases[6] - The liquidity shock from Trump's nomination of Wosh has been largely digested, allowing the market to return to a cyclical price increase trend[19] Risk Assessment - Extreme risk events, such as US-China relations and unexpected global geopolitical events, may disrupt historical statistical patterns[3] - The risk of quantitative indicators failing, as historical data may have limited predictive power for the future[3] Sector Analysis - In the non-ferrous metals sector, the market is returning to fundamental pricing, with copper and aluminum inventories stabilizing and supply-demand dynamics improving[10] - The pig inventory has reached a low point, with prices expected to stabilize, indicating limited downside potential for pig prices[14] - Chemical prices are on the rise, with Zhejiang Longsheng announcing a price increase of 2,000 yuan/ton for disperse dyes, driven by a significant increase in upstream intermediate prices[18] Trading Sentiment - Short-term sentiment across various sectors is generally rising, with mid-cap indices showing manageable risk levels despite some fluctuations[20] - The mid-term uncertainty for the CSI 500 index has slightly increased, while other indices remain relatively stable, indicating overall controllable risk[30]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.6%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect China 100 Index increased by 0.8% [1] - Huatai Securities noted that despite global risk asset fluctuations, the capital situation in the Hong Kong stock market remains relatively abundant, with significant inflows from foreign and southbound investors driving traditional sectors like agriculture, food and beverage, and transportation to strengthen [1] - Looking ahead, the peak earnings season for US tech stocks is nearing its end, and fluctuations in precious metals are expected to decrease, with potential catalysts in technology and consumer sectors around the Chinese New Year [1]

Asset Overview - In January, global risk assets experienced increased volatility due to changes in Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and geopolitical conflicts, with US stocks showing a strong upward trend [1] - The domestic market saw a return of funds, with equity assets continuing the upward trend from the end of last year, although regulatory measures led to a slowdown in growth [1] - The Wind All A index rose by 5.83% for the month, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices increasing by 12.12% and 8.68% respectively [1] - 80% of the Shenwan first-level industries saw gains, with strong performances in non-ferrous metals (+22.59%) and oil and petrochemicals (+16.31%) [1] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 6.85% in January, with a net inflow of 61.7 billion HKD from southbound funds [1] Bond Market Review - The bond market saw a downward adjustment followed by recovery, with most yield rates declining [2] - The 10-year government bond yield fell by 3.6 basis points to 1.81% during January [2] Commodity Market Review - The commodity market was generally bullish in January, with precious metals leading the gains; London gold prices rose by 13.01% to $4,880 per ounce [3] - Brent crude oil prices increased by 14.64% to $69.83 per barrel, while copper prices also saw gains [3] Macroeconomic Performance - The macroeconomic data for December indicated resilience in production, supported by external demand, while internal demand remained weak [5] - Industrial enterprises' profit margins showed positive growth for several months, with a 5.2% year-on-year increase in industrial value added [5] - Exports continued to exceed expectations, with a 6.6% year-on-year increase in December, driven by strong performance in machinery and high-tech products [6] Policy Outlook - Local government meetings have emphasized a "steady progress" approach, with an average GDP growth target of 5.0% for 2026 [10] - The focus of macroeconomic policy has shifted towards enhancing the quality of internal growth rather than merely expanding scale [10] Asset Allocation Analysis - The current economic environment is characterized by "strong supply, weak demand, and price stabilization," indicating an early recovery phase [24] - The asset performance ranking is expected to be bonds, stocks > commodities in the current phase [24]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [1][27]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the overall performance of the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) is expected to show significant results in 2026, with a focus on high-quality development and investment opportunities in various sectors [6][25]. Summary by Sections BSE Market Overview - As of January 30, 2026, the BSE has 292 constituent stocks with an average market capitalization of 3.207 billion [4][10]. - The BSE 50 Index experienced a decline of 3.59%, closing at 1531.55 points, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices showed minor fluctuations [4][10]. - The average daily trading volume for the week was 28.731 billion, an increase of 7.20% from the previous week, with a turnover rate of 5.88% [4][15]. Sector Performance - The top five performing sectors on the BSE for the week were: - Oil and Petrochemicals: 33.99% - Media: 4.97% - Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery: 4.69% - Transportation: 2.28% - Communication: 2% [4][17]. New Stocks - One new stock was issued during the week, Meidel (920119.BJ), with updates on the status of other companies in the review process [5][22]. Key News - The BSE released a revised "Guidelines for the Preparation of Sustainable Development Reports" to enhance the quality of sustainability disclosures among listed companies [6][24]. - The first IPO of the year was accepted, with Beijing Huadian Guangda Environment Co., Ltd. aiming to raise approximately 260 million by issuing up to 32.2 million shares [6][24]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on the following sectors for investment in 2026: 1. Data Centers: KLT and Shuguang Data Creation 2. Robotics: Suzhou Axis, Audiwei, JunChuang Technology, and Fuheng New Materials 3. Semiconductors: Hualing Co. and Kaide Quartz 4. Consumer Goods: Taihu Snow, Boshenglong, Lusi Co., Kangbiter, and Thunder God Technology 5. Military Information Technology: Chengdian Guangxin and Xingtuzhihui [6][25].