宏观政策有望加码推出和落实。 随着高温多雨极端天气影响消退，叠加扩内需促增长政策继续发力，制造业PMI出现回升，但仍位于荣 枯线之下。 国家统计局9月30日发布的数据显示，9月份中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.8%，较上月上升0.4 个百分点，连续2个月上升。非制造业商务活动指数为50.0%，比上月下降0.3个百分点。 中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群认为，9月份制造业PMI指数继续小幅回升，表明稳增长多项 政策的综合效果进一步显现。生产指数明显回升，采购量指数、生产经营活动预期指数回升，显示企业 生产经营活动有恢复迹象。同时要注意价格类指数均有不同程度回落，表明市场供大于求的情况仍然比 较突出；订单类指数均处荣枯线之下，需求不足问题仍需高度重视。 张立群表示，综合看，当前政策推动的经济回升因素与市场引导的经济收缩力量仍处激烈角力之中。要 以力度足够的政府投资有效激活企业投资需求和居民消费需求，使超大规模内需市场尽快摆脱市场引导 的收缩态势，尽快转入持续活跃扩张轨道。 中国物流信息中心专家文韬表示，9月制造业生产活动加快扩张还有一个重要原因是部分行业企业在销 售旺季预期下增加产成品储备，9月产成品 ...

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for August is 49.40%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous value[1] - The production index rose by 0.3 percentage points to 50.80%, while the new orders index increased by 0.1 percentage points to 49.50%[1] - The new export orders index recorded 47.20%, up by 0.1 percentage points, and the import index rose to 48.00%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points[1][2] Price Trends - The raw material purchase price index increased by 1.8 percentage points to 53.30%, marking three consecutive months of rise[2] - The factory price index rose by 0.8 percentage points to 49.10%, also showing a three-month upward trend[2] - The price gap between raw material purchases and factory prices increased by 1.00 percentage point to 4.20 percentage points[2] Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing PMI for August is 50.3%, up by 0.2 percentage points, indicating accelerated expansion[2] - The service sector PMI reached 50.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points, with capital market services showing strong growth[2][3] - The construction sector PMI fell to 49.1%, down by 1.5 percentage points, affected by adverse weather conditions[2][3] Investment Recommendations - The economic weak recovery pattern continues, with manufacturing supply PMI above the critical point for four consecutive months[3] - Focus on high-rated short-duration credit bonds while controlling low-rated risks in credit bonds[3] - The bond market is expected to maintain a "bull steep" trend, with long-end bonds offering better value[3]

Economic Indicators - In August 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from July[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index reached 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from July, with the services PMI at 50.5%, increasing by 0.5 percentage points[1] - The comprehensive PMI output index improved to 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[1] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The new orders index for manufacturing increased by 0.1 percentage points to 49.5%, while the manufacturing production index rose by 0.3 percentage points to 50.8%[2] - The manufacturing production expectations index increased by 1.1 percentage points to 53.7%, indicating improved confidence[2] - The new export orders index rose by 0.1 percentage points to 47.2%, but remains below the 10-year average of 48.0%, suggesting potential risks for future export growth[2] Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The PPI is expected to turn positive month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to approximately -2.8%[3] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI index reached 51.6%, a significant increase of 1.3 percentage points, reflecting strong demand and policy support[3] Service and Construction Sector Analysis - The services PMI index improved to 50.5%, driven by increased consumer activity during the summer and a strong stock market[4] - The construction PMI index fell to 49.1%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points, influenced by adverse weather and a cooling real estate market[5] Future Outlook - The manufacturing PMI is projected to slightly decline to around 49.3% in September, influenced by external trade agreements and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market[6] - Anticipated government policies aimed at boosting consumption and stabilizing the real estate market may provide support in the fourth quarter, with potential monetary easing measures expected[6]

Core Viewpoint - The August PMI indicates a divergence among industries, with manufacturing stabilizing slightly, service sectors improving significantly, and construction experiencing a notable decline. However, all three sectors show a common trend of improving sales prices [1][5]. Manufacturing Sector - The August manufacturing PMI stands at 49.4, slightly up from 49.3 in July, indicating a need for further support for actual growth [5]. - The production index is above 50 at 50.8, reflecting a stronger production performance compared to new orders, which remain below 50 [9][10]. - The consumer goods sector is a major drag on manufacturing PMI, while high-tech manufacturing shows strength, and both equipment manufacturing and basic raw materials industries show slight improvements [10] - The raw material purchase price index rose to 53.3, up 1.8 points, while the factory price index increased to 49.1, up 0.8 points, marking the third consecutive month of price increases [11][12]. Service Sector - The service sector PMI for August is 50.5, up from 50.0, indicating a positive trend influenced by capital market services, which have seen a business activity index above 70 for two consecutive months [5][10]. - Retail sentiment remains weak, suggesting challenges in consumer spending [10]. Construction Sector - The construction PMI dropped to 49.1 from 50.6, attributed to adverse weather conditions and a slowdown in construction activities [18]. - Fiscal spending on infrastructure showed a year-on-year decline of 3.6% in July, continuing a trend of low spending [18]. Economic Indicators - The three "soft indicators" for August reveal low absolute values, indicating a short-term economic slowdown compared to the first half of the year [19]. - Price indicators show a continuous improvement, which may influence future PPI trends [19]. - The manufacturing inventory index decreased to 46.8, while the raw material inventory index increased to 48.0, reflecting a proactive approach by companies to replenish stocks in response to rising prices [16][15]. Future Outlook - Attention is needed on the government's emphasis on stabilizing construction and actual growth, as well as whether the continuous improvement in PMI price indicators can translate into a rise in PPI [19]. - The manufacturing production expectation index rose to 53.7, the highest since April, indicating improved business expectations possibly linked to price expectations [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly, and structural issues such as prices are trending towards improvement. There will be a continued shift in the stock - bond allocation, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise continuously [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing - In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 pct and a year - on - year increase of 0.3 pct, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing's prosperity level. Except for the consumer goods industry, other industries' PMIs increased month - on - month. With the implementation of consumption - stimulating policies, the consumer goods industry's PMI is expected to stabilize and rebound [4]. - From the perspective of component indices, the production index was 50.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3 pct, and it has been in the expansion zone for 4 consecutive months, indicating an accelerated expansion of manufacturing production. The production and operation activity expectation index was 53.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1 pct, rising for two consecutive months, showing a positive market expectation [4]. - In terms of enterprise scale, the PMIs of large and small enterprises increased month - on - month, and the PMI of large enterprises has been in the expansion zone for 4 consecutive months [5]. Non - manufacturing - In August, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 pct and a year - on - year flat, remaining in the expansion zone. The construction industry PMI decreased by 1.5 pct to the contraction zone due to adverse factors such as frequent extreme weather, while the service industry PMI increased by 0.5 pct to the highest point of the year, with an obvious improvement in the prosperity level [6]. - From the perspective of major classification indices, the new order index increased by 0.9 pct month - on - month, and the business activity expectation index increased by 0.4 pct month - on - month, indicating that service enterprises are relatively optimistic about the recent market development prospects [6]. Comprehensive - In August, the comprehensive PMI was 50.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3 pct and a year - on - year increase of 0.4 pct, remaining in the expansion zone for 32 consecutive months, indicating an accelerated overall expansion of enterprise production and operation activities [7]. Market - This week, the 10Y treasury bond active bond fluctuated in the range of 1.75% - 1.80%, and the 10Y state - owned development active bond fluctuated in the range of 1.83% - 1.89%. The bond market trading remained insensitive to economic data, with overall fragile sentiment and a stronger sensitivity to negative events than positive events [8].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China dropped to 49.5% in March, indicating a contraction but remaining close to the critical threshold of 50%, suggesting mixed signals in the economy [2][3][4]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5%, influenced by domestic COVID-19 outbreaks and international geopolitical conflicts, leading to reduced production and demand [3][4]. - The production index and new order index both fell into the contraction zone, with new export orders decreasing by 1.8 percentage points compared to the previous month [3][4]. - The PMI for large enterprises was 51.3%, indicating stability and continued expansion despite a slight decline from the previous month [5]. High-Tech Manufacturing - High-tech manufacturing PMI was reported at 50.4%, remaining in the expansion zone despite a decrease from the previous month [4]. - Employment and business activity expectation indices for high-tech manufacturing were 52.0% and 57.8%, respectively, indicating strong resilience and positive market outlook [4]. Basic Raw Materials - The PMI for the basic raw materials sector increased to 49.5%, reflecting a slight recovery despite pressures from rising raw material prices [4]. - The purchasing price index for basic raw materials was over 10 percentage points higher than that of equipment manufacturing, indicating some cost absorption within the sector [4]. Business Sentiment - The production and business activity expectation index was 55.7%, showing a relatively optimistic outlook despite a decline from the previous month [5]. - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell below the critical point, but construction activity showed signs of improvement as weather conditions became favorable [5]. Economic Challenges - The economy faces pressures from demand contraction, supply shocks, and weakened expectations, compounded by ongoing COVID-19 and geopolitical issues [5][6]. - Recommendations include improving pandemic control measures and expanding domestic demand policies to mitigate economic impacts [6].

Core Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July 2025 in China is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The raw material purchasing price index for the manufacturing sector in July is 51.5%, which is an increase of 3.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] Industry Analysis - The increase in the raw material purchasing price index is primarily driven by the basic raw materials sector, which saw its purchasing price index rise over 7 percentage points to 52% [1] - The ex-factory price index for the basic raw materials sector also increased by more than 5 percentage points, approaching 49%, indicating a stabilization in product prices due to rising commodity prices [1] Company Size Insights - In July, the PMI for large enterprises is recorded at 50.3%, a decline of 0.9 percentage points, but still remains in the expansion zone [1] - The PMI for medium-sized enterprises is at 49.5%, reflecting an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [1]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July is reported at 49.3%, indicating a slight contraction, while the non-manufacturing business activity index and composite PMI output index are at 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, suggesting overall economic expansion in China [1] - The production index remains in the expansion zone at 50.5%, despite a 0.5 percentage point decline from the previous month, indicating ongoing manufacturing activity [1] - Extreme weather conditions, including heatwaves and floods, have impacted outdoor construction and daily life, affecting market demand [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the stabilization and recovery of manufacturing market prices are primarily driven by the basic raw materials sector, with recent price index trends showing improved market price coordination [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to turn positive month-on-month in July, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to approximately -3.0%, influenced by rising prices of coal and steel [2] - Manufacturing enterprises continue to face operational pressures, and while measures to counteract excessive low-cost competition may alleviate supply-demand mismatches, the sustainability of these effects depends on a consistent recovery in demand [2] Group 3 - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the need for stable and flexible economic policies to promote employment, businesses, and market expectations, aiming to achieve the annual economic and social development goals [3] - With the implementation of various policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, investment and consumption activities in China are expected to steadily recover [3] - Positive factors such as high-end manufacturing, green transformation, and digital upgrades are anticipated to gradually improve the manufacturing sector's prosperity, supporting the goal of around 5.0% economic growth for the year [3]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in July showed a short-term fluctuation, dropping to 49.3%, while the overall economic output remains in an expansion phase, supported by non-manufacturing indices above 50% [1][2]. Manufacturing Sector - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and extreme weather conditions [1]. - The new orders index for manufacturing was 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, and the new export orders index was 47.1%, down 0.6 percentage points [1]. - Despite weak market demand, the production index was at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion for the third consecutive month [1]. Key Industries - The equipment manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 1.1 percentage points but still in the expansion zone; high-tech manufacturing PMI was 50.6%, maintaining expansion for six months [2]. - Large enterprises showed stable expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [2]. Price Indices - The raw material purchase price index for manufacturing was 51.5%, up 3.1 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone after four months below 50% [2]. - The factory price index was 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points, marking the second-highest point this year [2]. Market Expectations - The manufacturing production and operation activity expectation index rose to 52.6%, indicating increased confidence among manufacturers [3]. - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, with the service sector at 50% and construction at 50.6%, both remaining in the expansion zone [3]. - The non-manufacturing business activity expectation index was 55.8%, reflecting optimism among most non-manufacturing enterprises [3]. Future Outlook - It is anticipated that construction activities will rebound as the rainy season ends, supported by policies aimed at boosting investment and consumption [4].

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - China's June official manufacturing PMI is 49.7, matching expectations and up from 49.5 in May, indicating a marginal improvement[4] - The production index rose to 51.0, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, signaling recovery in production activities[9] - New orders index increased to 50.2, up 0.4 percentage points, marking a return to the expansion zone after two months below the threshold[9] - The PMI for large enterprises is 51.2, up 0.5 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 48.6, up 1.1 percentage points[13] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing PMI for June is 50.5, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion[19] - The construction activity index rose to 52.8, up 1.8 percentage points, driven by infrastructure investments[25] - The service sector index is at 50.1, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, reflecting seasonal adjustments in travel-related services[22] Group 3: Price and Demand Dynamics - The raw material purchase price index is at 48.4, and the factory price index is at 46.2, both showing a 1.5 percentage point increase from the previous month[16] - New export orders index is at 47.7, up 0.2 percentage points, while the import index is at 47.8, up 0.7 percentage points, indicating a slight recovery in external demand[9]