Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for September is reported at 49.8%, indicating a 0.4 percentage point increase from August, marking two consecutive months of recovery [1][2] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50%, reflecting stable overall operations [1][4] - The composite PMI output index continues to show expansion, suggesting positive effects from growth stabilization policies [1] Manufacturing Sector - The production index, new orders index, and several other indices have shown increases, indicating a recovery in production and procurement activities [2] - However, order indices remain below the threshold, highlighting persistent challenges in market demand [2][3] - The equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors show rising purchasing price indices, while the basic raw materials sector faces pressure due to weak demand and price declines [3] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index remains stable at 50%, with the financial services index exceeding 60%, indicating a favorable financial environment for economic recovery [4][5] - New momentum industries, such as telecommunications and internet services, continue to perform well, contributing to economic vitality [4] Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is expected to improve in the fourth quarter, driven by increased macro policies, holiday consumption, and optimistic business expectations [1][6] - The manufacturing sector is anticipated to see sustained growth in production activities, supported by favorable market prices and completion of annual business targets [6][7] - The construction and service sectors are expected to experience a rebound in activity due to year-end effects and holiday demand [7]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, indicating a 0.4 percentage point increase from August, marking two consecutive months of recovery, while the non-manufacturing business activity index remained stable at 50% [1][3][6]. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI has shown a slight recovery, reflecting the effectiveness of various growth-stabilizing policies [3]. - Among the 13 sub-indices, production index, new orders index, and procurement volume index all increased, indicating a recovery in production activities [3]. - However, order indices remain below the threshold, highlighting persistent demand issues [3][4]. Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was stable at 50%, with the financial sector showing a notable increase above 60%, indicating a favorable financial environment for economic recovery [5][6]. - New momentum industries, such as telecommunications and software services, have shown strong performance, contributing positively to economic vitality [6]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is expected to improve in the fourth quarter, driven by increased macro policies, holiday consumption, and optimistic corporate expectations [1][8]. - The manufacturing sector is anticipated to see continued growth in production activities, supported by favorable market prices and completion of annual business targets [10][11]. - The construction and service sectors are expected to experience a rebound in activity, particularly during the holiday season [7][10].

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In September 2025, China's Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from August, exceeding market expectations[1] - The New Orders Index increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, while the Production Index surged by 1.1 percentage points to 51.9%, marking a six-month high[2] - Seasonal recovery, improved consumer demand due to policy incentives, and positive outcomes from the China-US trade talks contributed to the PMI increase[2] Price and Economic Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to narrow its year-on-year decline to approximately -2.3% in September, influenced by last year's lower base[3] - The Manufacturing PMI for high-tech sectors stood at 51.6%, while the Equipment Manufacturing PMI rose significantly by 1.4 percentage points to 51.9%[4][5] - The Consumer Goods Manufacturing PMI also increased by 1.4 percentage points to 50.6%, supported by government subsidies and stable export growth[5] Service and Construction PMI - The Services PMI decreased to 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from August, reflecting seasonal trends and the impact of the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival[6] - The Construction PMI was at 49.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, but remained in contraction territory due to a cooling real estate market and weak infrastructure investment[7] Economic Outlook - The overall macroeconomic environment shows slight improvement, with a projected GDP growth rate of around 4.7% year-on-year for Q3, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from Q2[7] - Looking ahead, the Manufacturing PMI is expected to slightly decline to approximately 49.6% in October, influenced by high tariffs and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market[8]

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI in China rose to 49.8% in September, indicating a slight recovery but still below the expansion threshold [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index decreased to 50.0%, reflecting a slight slowdown in non-manufacturing activities [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing production index increased to 51.9%, marking a continuous expansion for five months [4] - The purchasing volume index rose to 51.6%, indicating improved procurement activities [4] - New orders index reached 49.7%, showing a stabilization in market demand [4] - The export new orders index improved to 47.8%, suggesting a narrowing decline in export demand [4] - The manufacturing purchase price index was 53.2%, while the factory price index fell to 48.2%, indicating mixed price trends across sectors [5] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index remained stable at 50.0%, with the construction index at 49.3% and the services index at 50.1% [8] - The business activity expectation index for non-manufacturing remained above 55%, indicating stable optimism among enterprises [8] - The postal industry showed significant growth, with indices above 60%, reflecting active online shopping [8][9] Future Outlook - The manufacturing sector is expected to see continued growth in Q4, driven by macro policies and seasonal demand [5] - Non-manufacturing activities are anticipated to stabilize and recover, supported by year-end effects and holiday demand [10]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy and Manufacturing Sector - The macroeconomic policy is expected to be strengthened and implemented, with the manufacturing PMI showing a slight recovery to 49.8% in September, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating ongoing policy effects [1] - The production index rose to 51.9%, marking a continuous expansion for five months, while the new orders index increased to 49.7%, suggesting a stabilization in market demand [4] - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a seasonal peak in production and sales, with procurement activities and employment showing positive trends [4] Group 2: Price Trends and Future Outlook - The purchasing price index for manufacturing decreased to 53.2%, while the factory price index fell to 48.2%, indicating a mixed price trend across different industries [5] - There is an expectation of improved market conditions in the fourth quarter, driven by holiday demand and infrastructure projects, which will likely boost consumption and production activities [5] - The manufacturing production expectation index rose to 54.1%, reflecting increased optimism among manufacturers regarding market developments [6] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index remained stable at 50.0%, with slight declines in the service sector and construction industry, indicating a mild slowdown [9] - The postal industry showed significant growth, with business activity and new orders indices rising over 5 percentage points, reflecting strong online shopping trends [9][10] - Overall, the non-manufacturing sector is expected to stabilize and recover in the fourth quarter, supported by seasonal effects and ongoing macroeconomic policies [10]

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for August is 49.40%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous value[1] - The production index rose by 0.3 percentage points to 50.80%, while the new orders index increased by 0.1 percentage points to 49.50%[1] - The new export orders index recorded 47.20%, up by 0.1 percentage points, and the import index rose to 48.00%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points[1][2] Price Trends - The raw material purchase price index increased by 1.8 percentage points to 53.30%, marking three consecutive months of rise[2] - The factory price index rose by 0.8 percentage points to 49.10%, also showing a three-month upward trend[2] - The price gap between raw material purchases and factory prices increased by 1.00 percentage point to 4.20 percentage points[2] Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing PMI for August is 50.3%, up by 0.2 percentage points, indicating accelerated expansion[2] - The service sector PMI reached 50.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points, with capital market services showing strong growth[2][3] - The construction sector PMI fell to 49.1%, down by 1.5 percentage points, affected by adverse weather conditions[2][3] Investment Recommendations - The economic weak recovery pattern continues, with manufacturing supply PMI above the critical point for four consecutive months[3] - Focus on high-rated short-duration credit bonds while controlling low-rated risks in credit bonds[3] - The bond market is expected to maintain a "bull steep" trend, with long-end bonds offering better value[3]

Economic Indicators - In August 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from July[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index reached 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from July, with the services PMI at 50.5%, increasing by 0.5 percentage points[1] - The comprehensive PMI output index improved to 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[1] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The new orders index for manufacturing increased by 0.1 percentage points to 49.5%, while the manufacturing production index rose by 0.3 percentage points to 50.8%[2] - The manufacturing production expectations index increased by 1.1 percentage points to 53.7%, indicating improved confidence[2] - The new export orders index rose by 0.1 percentage points to 47.2%, but remains below the 10-year average of 48.0%, suggesting potential risks for future export growth[2] Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The PPI is expected to turn positive month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to approximately -2.8%[3] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI index reached 51.6%, a significant increase of 1.3 percentage points, reflecting strong demand and policy support[3] Service and Construction Sector Analysis - The services PMI index improved to 50.5%, driven by increased consumer activity during the summer and a strong stock market[4] - The construction PMI index fell to 49.1%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points, influenced by adverse weather and a cooling real estate market[5] Future Outlook - The manufacturing PMI is projected to slightly decline to around 49.3% in September, influenced by external trade agreements and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market[6] - Anticipated government policies aimed at boosting consumption and stabilizing the real estate market may provide support in the fourth quarter, with potential monetary easing measures expected[6]

Core Viewpoint - The August PMI indicates a divergence among industries, with manufacturing stabilizing slightly, service sectors improving significantly, and construction experiencing a notable decline. However, all three sectors show a common trend of improving sales prices [1][5]. Manufacturing Sector - The August manufacturing PMI stands at 49.4, slightly up from 49.3 in July, indicating a need for further support for actual growth [5]. - The production index is above 50 at 50.8, reflecting a stronger production performance compared to new orders, which remain below 50 [9][10]. - The consumer goods sector is a major drag on manufacturing PMI, while high-tech manufacturing shows strength, and both equipment manufacturing and basic raw materials industries show slight improvements [10] - The raw material purchase price index rose to 53.3, up 1.8 points, while the factory price index increased to 49.1, up 0.8 points, marking the third consecutive month of price increases [11][12]. Service Sector - The service sector PMI for August is 50.5, up from 50.0, indicating a positive trend influenced by capital market services, which have seen a business activity index above 70 for two consecutive months [5][10]. - Retail sentiment remains weak, suggesting challenges in consumer spending [10]. Construction Sector - The construction PMI dropped to 49.1 from 50.6, attributed to adverse weather conditions and a slowdown in construction activities [18]. - Fiscal spending on infrastructure showed a year-on-year decline of 3.6% in July, continuing a trend of low spending [18]. Economic Indicators - The three "soft indicators" for August reveal low absolute values, indicating a short-term economic slowdown compared to the first half of the year [19]. - Price indicators show a continuous improvement, which may influence future PPI trends [19]. - The manufacturing inventory index decreased to 46.8, while the raw material inventory index increased to 48.0, reflecting a proactive approach by companies to replenish stocks in response to rising prices [16][15]. Future Outlook - Attention is needed on the government's emphasis on stabilizing construction and actual growth, as well as whether the continuous improvement in PMI price indicators can translate into a rise in PPI [19]. - The manufacturing production expectation index rose to 53.7, the highest since April, indicating improved business expectations possibly linked to price expectations [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly, and structural issues such as prices are trending towards improvement. There will be a continued shift in the stock - bond allocation, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise continuously [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing - In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 pct and a year - on - year increase of 0.3 pct, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing's prosperity level. Except for the consumer goods industry, other industries' PMIs increased month - on - month. With the implementation of consumption - stimulating policies, the consumer goods industry's PMI is expected to stabilize and rebound [4]. - From the perspective of component indices, the production index was 50.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3 pct, and it has been in the expansion zone for 4 consecutive months, indicating an accelerated expansion of manufacturing production. The production and operation activity expectation index was 53.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1 pct, rising for two consecutive months, showing a positive market expectation [4]. - In terms of enterprise scale, the PMIs of large and small enterprises increased month - on - month, and the PMI of large enterprises has been in the expansion zone for 4 consecutive months [5]. Non - manufacturing - In August, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 pct and a year - on - year flat, remaining in the expansion zone. The construction industry PMI decreased by 1.5 pct to the contraction zone due to adverse factors such as frequent extreme weather, while the service industry PMI increased by 0.5 pct to the highest point of the year, with an obvious improvement in the prosperity level [6]. - From the perspective of major classification indices, the new order index increased by 0.9 pct month - on - month, and the business activity expectation index increased by 0.4 pct month - on - month, indicating that service enterprises are relatively optimistic about the recent market development prospects [6]. Comprehensive - In August, the comprehensive PMI was 50.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3 pct and a year - on - year increase of 0.4 pct, remaining in the expansion zone for 32 consecutive months, indicating an accelerated overall expansion of enterprise production and operation activities [7]. Market - This week, the 10Y treasury bond active bond fluctuated in the range of 1.75% - 1.80%, and the 10Y state - owned development active bond fluctuated in the range of 1.83% - 1.89%. The bond market trading remained insensitive to economic data, with overall fragile sentiment and a stronger sensitivity to negative events than positive events [8].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China dropped to 49.5% in March, indicating a contraction but remaining close to the critical threshold of 50%, suggesting mixed signals in the economy [2][3][4]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5%, influenced by domestic COVID-19 outbreaks and international geopolitical conflicts, leading to reduced production and demand [3][4]. - The production index and new order index both fell into the contraction zone, with new export orders decreasing by 1.8 percentage points compared to the previous month [3][4]. - The PMI for large enterprises was 51.3%, indicating stability and continued expansion despite a slight decline from the previous month [5]. High-Tech Manufacturing - High-tech manufacturing PMI was reported at 50.4%, remaining in the expansion zone despite a decrease from the previous month [4]. - Employment and business activity expectation indices for high-tech manufacturing were 52.0% and 57.8%, respectively, indicating strong resilience and positive market outlook [4]. Basic Raw Materials - The PMI for the basic raw materials sector increased to 49.5%, reflecting a slight recovery despite pressures from rising raw material prices [4]. - The purchasing price index for basic raw materials was over 10 percentage points higher than that of equipment manufacturing, indicating some cost absorption within the sector [4]. Business Sentiment - The production and business activity expectation index was 55.7%, showing a relatively optimistic outlook despite a decline from the previous month [5]. - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell below the critical point, but construction activity showed signs of improvement as weather conditions became favorable [5]. Economic Challenges - The economy faces pressures from demand contraction, supply shocks, and weakened expectations, compounded by ongoing COVID-19 and geopolitical issues [5][6]. - Recommendations include improving pandemic control measures and expanding domestic demand policies to mitigate economic impacts [6].