Group 1 - The company has not yet ventured into the specialty engineering plastics sector [1] - The core business of the company focuses on the recycled plastics field, emphasizing an innovative model of "recycling - regeneration - utilization" [1] - The company aims to achieve efficient recycling and maximization of value from recycled plastic resources through technological and model innovation, promoting green and sustainable development in the industry [1]

Group 1: Futures Market Information - The previous day's closing prices of LL (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month) were 7188, 7233, 7280 respectively, with changes of - 57, - 56, - 19 and percentage changes of - 0.79%, - 0.77%, - 0.26% compared to the prices two days ago [2]. - The previous day's closing prices of PP (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month) were 6926, 6963, 6931 respectively, with changes of - 56, - 54, - 53 and percentage changes of - 0.80%, - 0.77%, - 0.76% compared to the prices two days ago [2]. - The trading volumes of LL (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month) were 207880, 9760, 66 respectively, and the trading volumes of PP (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month) were 234762, 20649, 871 respectively [2]. - The open interests of LL (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month) were 529473, 38224, 67 respectively, with changes of 9217, - 329, 35. The open interests of PP (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month) were 574719, 71061, 1575 respectively, with changes of 3878, 3796, 524 [2]. - The current spreads of LL (1 - month - 5 - month, 5 - month - 9 - month, 9 - month - 1 - month) were - 45, - 47, 92 respectively, and the current spreads of PP (1 - month - 5 - month, 5 - month - 9 - month, 9 - month - 1 - month) were - 37, 32, 5 respectively [2]. Group 2: Spot Market Information - In the raw material and spot market, the current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and plastic film were 2348 yuan/ton, 6625 yuan/ton, 593 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6750 yuan/ton, 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - In the mid - stream spot market, the current price ranges of LL in East China, North China, and South China were 7200 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7400 yuan/ton, 7300 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. The current price ranges of PP in East China, North China, and South China were 6750 - 6900 yuan/ton, 6750 - 6850 yuan/ton, 6700 - 6950 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Group 3: News - On Thursday (September 18), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.57 per barrel, down $0.48 or 0.75% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.33 - $64.55 [2]. - The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.44 per barrel, down $0.51 or 0.75% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $67.19 - $68.42 [2]. Group 4: Core Views and Strategies - Polyolefins closed down with a negative candlestick. In the spot market, the prices of linear LL from Sinopec and part of PetroChina were stable, and the prices of drawn PP from Sinopec and PetroChina were stable [2]. - From a fundamental perspective, the spot market of polyolefins is still mainly driven by supply - demand factors. Currently, the PE inventory is being slowly digested, and the PP inventory has also improved [2]. - After continuous declines, the short - selling pressure has been released, and the stabilization of crude oil prices provides support for chemicals. However, after the Fed's interest rate cut, the market declined due to concerns about future demand realization [2]. - In the medium - term, with the interaction of cost and supply - demand factors, polyolefins may continue to oscillate in a low - level range [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of polypropylene is more likely to rise than fall, but the upside space is limited, with pressure at the [7300] price level. The demand is in the process of transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, showing marginal improvement, which drives the price up in the short term. However, the supply pressure remains high, with new production capacity being continuously launched and the existing production load also being relatively high [6]. - The anti - involution policy announced last Friday did not materialize. This week, the price of polyolefins fluctuated and then weakened, especially on Friday. The supply - demand fundamentals are still weak. The supply pressure remains, while the recovery of the demand side is disappointing. The downstream acceptance is limited, and the market price has been adjusted downwards. Additionally, with the end of the peak season and OPEC+ increasing production, the cost - side crude oil situation is also not optimistic [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The spot price of plastic standard products is weak and falling, but the basis has weakened. The East China basis has weakened by 20 to around - 100 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the week, the North China basis has weakened by 40 to around - 160 yuan/ton, and the South China basis has weakened by 40 to around - 90 yuan/ton [20]. - **Non - standard basis**: The trend of the non - standard basis of plastics is similar to that of the standard basis [21]. - **Regional spread**: The North China - East China spread has rebounded, and the South China - East China spread has remained stable at a low level [34]. - **Related product spread**: The injection - molding - to - drawing spread has weakened, and the low - melt copolymer - to - drawing spread is at a medium level [35]. - **Disk spread**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread has weakened again to below - 20. The L - PP01 spread has currently fallen to around 270. The previous PP - 701 spread dropped significantly as 1 rebounded and has recently recovered and stabilized. Overall, the supply pressure of PP is greater (high load + new production), while L has more maintenance and the demand for thick - film starts in September, but the demand recovery of PP is relatively slow. Recently, due to the lower - than - expected demand for L, the spread has turned downward. The methanol is statically weak, and the inventory has rapidly accumulated under high imports. However, the narrative of winter gas restrictions in Iran has begun, and the 01 contract has stopped falling and rebounded, with limited upward space for MTO profits [54]. 2. Domestic Production - end Profit and Supply - **Production profit**: - Oil - based production: The oil price rebounded slightly this week and then fell back. Geopolitical conflicts continue, and OPEC+ is considering increasing production in October. The oil - based production profit remains at a relatively good level in recent years [82]. - PDH production: The overseas supply of LPG from the Middle East and the United States will further increase, and the domestic supply from local refineries will return. The supply pressure has further increased. The PDH profit is not good [82]. - Coal - based production: As the coal price rebounds, the CTO profit has shrunk but still remains at a high level. The inland MTO profit has deteriorated under the tight supply - demand situation of methanol [82]. - **Domestic production volume and load**: - In 2024, China's PP production capacity was 4401 tons, and in early 2025, it was expected to increase by 265.5 tons, with an expected capacity growth rate of about 1.28%. As of August 2025, the new domestic PP production capacity totaled 370.5 tons, with a capacity growth rate of 8.31%. The planned production capacity in 2025 is 490.5 tons, with an estimated annual capacity growth rate of 11% [115][117][118]. - This week, the PP production volume was 78.67 tons (- 2.73 tons), and the operating rate was 76.83% (- 3.08%). The supply loss of PP was 23.10 tons, including 16.64 tons of maintenance loss and 6.45 tons of load - reduction loss. Some devices such as Daqing Refining & Chemical and Donghua Energy (Zhangjiagang) stopped production this week, and the supply has declined from a high level [119]. - **Regional operating rate**: The operating rates of different regions show different trends. The data of the operating rates of the Northwest, North China, East China, South China, Central China, Northeast, and Southwest regions are provided, with different trends over time [131][132][136]. - **Production allocation ratio**: An increase in the drawing production allocation may indicate that the short - term standard products are stronger than non - standard products, but the medium - term supply pressure may increase [140]. 3. US Dollar Price and Import - Export Profit - **US dollar price and spread**: The prices in Northwest Europe and the Americas have fallen from high levels, and the overall price in Asia has weakened. The spread between CFR China and the overseas market has rebounded [149][150]. - **Import - export profit**: The domestic market is weakly consolidating. The export offers of production enterprises remain stable, while overseas inquiries are scarce. China's price is at a "global low," and it is difficult to open the import arbitrage window [166]. 4. Downstream Operating Rate - This week, the overall downstream operating rate increased by 0.63% month - on - month. Most operating rates are recovering. The operating rate of plastic weaving increased by 0.4%, the operating rates of BOPP and CPP increased by 0.12% and 2.2% respectively, the operating rate of PP pipes rebounded by 0.17%, and the operating rates of modification and injection molding are also rising. With the arrival of the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October," the downstream operating rate will further increase [169]. 5. Inventory - Production enterprises' inventory decreased by 1.24 tons to 57.51 tons. The inventory of the two major oil companies decreased by 3.09 tons, while the coal - chemical inventory increased by 0.58 tons. The PBI inventory decreased by 0.9 tons, and the local refinery inventory increased by 2.17 tons. The supply pressure has increased, but the upstream petrochemical inventory has been actively transferred to the intermediate - trader link, resulting in a slight decrease in the production enterprises' inventory this week [11][223]. - Traders' inventory increased by 2.29 tons, and the inventory in the intermediate link is being digested slowly. The port inventory decreased by 0.16 tons [11][223]. 6. Position, Trading Volume, and Warehouse Receipt Situation - **Position**: The position volumes of the polypropylene 05, 09, and 01 contracts are provided, with different trends over time [237]. - **Trading volume**: The trading volumes of the polypropylene 01, 05, and 09 contracts are provided, with different trends over time [239][242][245]. - **Warehouse receipt**: The number of registered PP warehouse receipts on September 12, 2025, is 17,191, with a trend over time [251][252].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market is experiencing intense supply - demand competition and is expected to trade in a range. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season has arrived, with downstream polyolefin operating rates improving month - on - month, especially in the agricultural film sector. However, due to supply pressure and weakening crude oil prices, polyolefin prices have been declining. Terminal demand is still improving, and there is an expectation of price increase in the future. It is expected that the LL main contract will trade between 7200 - 7500, the PP will trade between 6900 - 7200, and the LP spread will widen [8]. - The supply - demand contradiction in plastics has eased, and there is strong support at the bottom. For PP, the upward trend faces significant pressure, and it is expected to be weak and fluctuate in the short term [8][9][47]. Summary by Directory Plastic 1. Market Review - On September 12, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7169 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.05%. The average prices of LDPE, HDPE, and LLDPE in South China all decreased slightly. The LLDPE South China basis widened, and the 9 - 1 month spread narrowed [10]. 2. Key Data Tracking - **Month - spread**: On September 12, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 12 yuan/ton (unchanged), the 5 - 9 month spread was 131 yuan/ton (+40), and the 9 - 1 month spread was - 119 yuan/ton (-40) [18]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of various types of plastics in different regions showed different degrees of decline [19][20]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil closed at $62.11 per barrel, up $0.14 from last week, and Brent crude oil closed at $66.88 per barrel, up $1.21 from last week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1050 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [22]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 220 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton from last week, and the profit of coal - based PE was 931 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton [26]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of polyethylene production in China this week was 78.04%, down 2.51 percentage points from last week, and the weekly output was 61.28 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.11%. The maintenance loss this week was 14.62 tons, an increase of 2.29 tons from last week [30]. - **2025 Production Plan**: A total of 15 projects are planned to be put into production in 2025, with a total capacity of 613 tons [33]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' devices are under maintenance, and the maintenance time of some devices is uncertain [34]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of domestic agricultural films this week was 24.12%, up 3.94% from last week; the operating rate of PE packaging films was 51.30%, up 0.82% from last week, and the operating rate of PE pipes was 31.67%, up 1.34% from last week [36]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear films is the highest, accounting for 32.8%, and the difference from the annual average level is 2.7%. The difference between low - pressure injection molding and the annual average data is obvious, currently accounting for 8.5%, and the difference from the annual average level is 3.7% [41]. - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 56.03 tons, a decrease of 0.02 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04% [42]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 12, the number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 12,525 lots, an increase of 4,262 lots from last week [45]. PP 1. Market Review - On September 12, the closing price of the PP main contract was 6913 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton from last week. The prices of various PP products across the country also decreased [48][51]. 2. Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of PP granules, PP powder, PE, PVC powder, PVC paste, and PS all showed different degrees of change compared with the previous period [53]. - **Basis**: On September 12, the spot price of PP reported by Shengyi was 7106.67 yuan/ton (-0.09%). The PP basis was 194 yuan/ton (+41), and the basis widened. The 9 - 1 month spread was - 126 yuan/ton (-14), and the month spread narrowed [55]. - **Month - spread**: On September 12, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 23 yuan/ton (-8), the 5 - 9 month spread was 149 yuan/ton (+22), and the 9 - 1 month spread was - 126 yuan/ton (-14) [64]. - **Cost**: The same as the cost data of plastics, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices increased, and the price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port decreased [66]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 322.17 yuan/ton, an increase of 67.84 yuan/ton from last week, and the profit of coal - based PP was 490.20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.73 yuan/ton from last week [70]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises this week was 76.83%, down 3.08 percentage points from last week. The weekly output of PP granules was 78.67 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.35%, and the weekly output of PP powder was 5.99 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.87% [73]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many PP production lines of various enterprises are under maintenance, and the maintenance time of some devices is uncertain [77]. - **Demand**: The average downstream operating rate this week was 50.86% (+0.63). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 43.10% (+0.40), the operating rate of BOPP was 61.55% (+0.12%), the operating rate of injection molding was 58.06% (+0.08%), and the operating rate of pipes was 36.67% (+0.17%) [79]. - **Import and Export Profit**: This week, the PP import profit was - 500.86 US dollars/ton, an increase of 83.04 US dollars/ton compared with last week, and the export profit was - 3.60 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.40 US dollars/ton compared with last week [84]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic PP inventory was 57.51 tons (-1.17%); the inventory of the two major oil companies decreased by 0.99% month - on - month; the inventory of traders increased by 4.97% month - on - month; and the port inventory increased by 0.68% month - on - month. The finished product inventory of large - scale plastic - weaving enterprises was 1026.30 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.30%, and the BOPP raw material inventory was 9.52 days, a month - on - month increase of 6.25% [88][92]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On September 12, the number of PP warehouse receipts was 13,706 lots, a decrease of 43 lots from last week [96].

Core Viewpoint - The PC industry is undergoing a green transformation, focusing on establishing a comprehensive recycling system to address the premature retirement of PC products and to embrace the "dual carbon" era [1] Group 1: Recycling and Sustainability - Ningbo Jianfeng New Materials Co., Ltd. has developed a technology that allows discarded PC water buckets to be transformed into cultural and daily-use products [1] - The company highlights the environmental impact of improper disposal of food-grade PC water buckets, which can lead to resource waste and pollution [1] - The traditional recycling methods face challenges due to technological limitations, prompting the need for innovative solutions [1] Group 2: Technological Innovations - The developed technology integrates a standardized efficient recycling system, ultra-pure processing techniques, big data, and material algorithms to address technical challenges related to impurities and product quality [2] - The company has created a hierarchical design and formula upgrade technology for high-value products derived from discarded water buckets, tackling issues of aging and molecular instability [2] - An automated low-carbon demonstration production line has been established to ensure a closed-loop recycling process and improve industry efficiency [2] Group 3: Product Development and Standards - Recycled PC materials can be repurposed into various products such as backpacks, travel cases, goggles, and more, while maintaining food-grade standards [3] - The recycled materials meet FDA standards for food-grade PCR PC materials, significantly reducing carbon emissions by 92.3% [3] - The company has established a complete lifecycle value chain from resource recovery to consumer products, emphasizing the potential for "infinite circulation" of PC materials [3] Group 4: Digital and Carbon Management - Ningbo Jianfeng has created a zero-carbon digital consumption platform that assigns carbon codes to each recycled product, facilitating tracking and management of carbon credits and identities [4] - This platform aims to integrate physical and data chains across the entire value chain, enhancing sustainability and traceability [4] - Future plans include exploring new paradigms for the integration of PC material recycling with ESG and commercial innovation to further promote the green transformation of the PC industry [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Core Viewpoint of the Report - The PVC industry has significant fundamental pressure, with a low basis. It is expected that PVC will fluctuate downward, and the recommended strategy is to sell short at high prices [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The upstream calcium carbide price has slightly increased in some regions. The PVC operating rate has increased by 1.11 percentage points to 77.13% and remains at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream operating rate has slightly increased but is still low compared to previous years, and procurement is cautious [1]. - India has postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025. Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, has raised its September quotation by $10 - 30 per ton. Recent export orders are average. On August 14, India announced a new anti - dumping duty on imported PVC, with an increase of about $50 per ton for the Chinese mainland. The export outlook for Chinese PVC in the second half of the year is weakening [1]. - Social inventory has continued to increase and remains high, with significant inventory pressure. From January to July 2025, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further declines in year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and completion [1]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and the PVC operating rate increased last week and remains high. New production capacities are coming on stream, including Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 - ton/year production line in August, Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 - ton/year production line expected to be in stable production in September after trial production in August, and Gansu Yaowang's 300,000 - ton/year and Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton/year production lines planned for trial runs in September [1]. - The support from calcium carbide prices is still weak, and PVC faces significant pressure before the demand is substantially improved. There are no actual policies implemented in the PVC industry yet, and most old devices have been upgraded through technological innovation. The macro - policy of anti - involution and elimination of old devices to solve the problem of over - capacity in the petrochemical industry will affect the subsequent market [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2601 contract reduced positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 4,838 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 4,896 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 4,888 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.80%. The position volume decreased by 23,861 lots to 1,242,667 lots [2]. Basis - On September 11, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China remained at 4,680 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,857 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 208 yuan/ton, weakening by 31 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, maintenance devices such as Gansu Yinguang and Ningbo Formosa Plastics have resumed production. The PVC operating rate increased by 1.11 percentage points to 77.13% and remains at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities are coming on stream as mentioned above [5]. - On the demand side, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. From January to July 2025, the national real estate development investment was 535.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.0%. The commercial housing sales area was 515.6 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%; the residential sales area decreased by 4.1%. The commercial housing sales volume was 495.66 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.5%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 6.2%. The new construction area of houses was 352.06 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.4%; the new construction area of residential houses was 258.81 million square meters, a decrease of 18.3%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises' houses was 6.38731 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. The completion area of houses was 250.34 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5%; the completion area of residential houses was 180.67 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%. The overall improvement of the real estate market still takes time [6]. - As of the week of September 7, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 30.28% week - on - week and remained at the lowest level in recent years. Attention should be paid to whether real estate favorable policies can boost commercial housing sales [6]. - As of the week of September 4, the PVC social inventory increased by 2.44% week - on - week to 918,200 tons, an increase of 3.73% compared to the same period last year. Social inventory has continued to increase and remains high [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse spread; Inter - variety: Long L - P [3] Core View - The downstream demand is in the transition period between the seasonal peak and off - peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". The operating rates of downstream industries such as agricultural films and packaging films show a slight upward trend, while those of plastic weaving and BOPP films are flat month - on - month. The overall demand follows up slowly. Multiple PE plants are under maintenance, and the overall operating rate decreases slightly, with the supply pressure expected to ease slightly. New PP production capacity is being released. The upstream production inventory increases slightly, the inventory in the middle - stream decreases, and the downstream rigid demand procurement increases. With the arrival of the peak demand season in mid - to late September, the downstream operating rate is expected to rise, and the short - term supply - demand margin may improve. Crude oil is weakly consolidating, the profit of PDH - made PP is slightly in the red, and the maintenance volume of PDH plants increases [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Analyze the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures main contracts and the basis between LL East China and the main contract, as well as PP East China and the main contract [8][11] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - Include the production profit of LL (crude oil - based), PE operating rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit (crude oil - based and PDH - based), PP operating rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - made PP capacity utilization rate [16][19][27] III. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Compare the price differences between HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt co - polymer - drawn wire East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding - drawn wire East China [26][33][34] IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - Analyze the import and export profits of LL and PP, including LL import profit, LL price differences in different regions, PP import profit, PP export profit (to Southeast Asia), and price differences of PP homopolymer injection molding in different regions [39][52][59] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - Cover the operating rates of PE downstream agricultural films, packaging films, and PP downstream plastic weaving, BOPP films, injection molding, as well as the production gross profits of PP downstream plastic weaving and BOPP films [56][63][70] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - Include the inventories of PE and PP in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports [72][76][81]

Core Viewpoint - The PVC market is currently facing challenges, with expectations of a downward trend due to high inventory levels and weak demand [1] Supply and Demand - Upstream calcium carbide prices have increased by 50 yuan/ton in certain regions [1] - PVC operating rates have increased by 1.11 percentage points to 77.13%, which is relatively high for this time of year [1] - Downstream operating rates have seen a slight increase but remain low year-on-year, leading to cautious purchasing behavior [1] Market Conditions - India's BIS policy has been extended until December 24, 2025, while Taiwan's Formosa Plastics raised prices by $10 to $30/ton in September [1] - On August 14, India raised the anti-dumping tax on PVC imports from mainland China by approximately $50/ton, leading to weakened export expectations for Chinese PVC in the second half of the year [1] - Social inventory continues to rise and remains at high levels, indicating significant inventory pressure [1] Real Estate Impact - From January to July 2025, the real estate sector is in an adjustment phase, with significant year-on-year declines in investment, new construction, and completed area [1] - The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities has decreased compared to the same period last year, reaching the lowest level historically [1] Production and Capacity - The chlor-alkali comprehensive profit remains positive, and PVC operating rates have increased while still being relatively high [1] - New production capacities are coming online, with Wanhua Chemical starting production in August, Tianjin Bohua expected to stabilize production in September, and Gansu Yaowang and Qingdao Haigang planning trial runs in September [1] Price and Futures - Calcium carbide price support is weak, and PVC faces significant pressure until demand improves [1] - Currently, there are no substantial policies affecting the PVC industry, and many older facilities are undergoing technical upgrades [1] - The PVC2601 futures contract saw a reduction in positions, with a minimum price of 4818 yuan/ton and a maximum of 4878 yuan/ton, closing at 4857 yuan/ton, down 0.14% [1] - As of September 10, the mainstream price of calcium carbide method PVC in East China was 4680 yuan/ton, with the V2601 futures closing price at 4857 yuan/ton, resulting in a basis of -177 yuan/ton, which is considered low [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PVC is in a phase of oscillatory decline, and the later price center is expected to decline. The supply - demand of PVC continues the extremely weak trend, with high - level production supply, weak domestic and export demand, and continuous accumulation of social inventory, which has now reached a level close to that of the same period last year [3]. - For traders, terminal customers, and production enterprises with inventory, it is recommended to short - hedge futures based on the weak reality. For those who need to purchase PVC, it is recommended to purchase as needed, and to buy out - of - the - money call options to prevent price increases [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Supply - Demand Situation Supply - In August, the overall PVC production showed an increasing trend. Although maintenance caused a certain reduction in supply, the release of new production capacity of 500,000 tons led to an overall increase in production [6]. - In 2025, the first - quarter production capacity of 300,000 tons was put into operation. Fujian Wanhua's 600,000 - ton capacity was included in production on August 2. It is expected that the annual production capacity growth rate will be 6.37%, and the pressure of production capacity release remains high [8]. - In August, PVC start - up first increased and then decreased, mainly related to its maintenance plan. There were fewer maintenance plans in the first ten - day period, with the start - up reaching around 79 - 80. In the middle and late ten - day periods, maintenance increased, and the start - up dropped to around 72 - 38 [8]. Demand - The current downstream start - up is at a low level compared to the same period, especially the start - up of pipe enterprises has deteriorated significantly. Domestic downstream product enterprises continue to purchase at low prices and resist high - priced raw materials. Production is weak in the high - temperature summer season [9]. - This week, the sample of PVC production enterprises decreased by 2.17% month - on - month and increased by 9.13% year - on - year. As of August 17, the final anti - dumping duty decision on PVC in India is waiting for the announcement of the Indian Ministry of Finance, estimated to be announced and implemented in about 20 - 30 days. The prices in the Chinese mainland have generally increased by 46 - 62 US dollars/ton, while those in Japan, South Korea, the United States, and Chinese Taipei have decreased. In the short term, there is a certain rush - to - export performance. Pay attention to the implementation time of the Indian anti - dumping duty, which will have a negative impact on China's exports if implemented [9]. Inventory - As of August 28, the original sample inventory in East China was 445,400 tons, an increase of 3.44% from the previous period and a decrease of 3.91% year - on - year. The expanded sample inventory in East China was 766,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.89%. The sample inventory in South China was 52,500 tons, an increase of 1.74% from the previous period and an increase of 44.23% year - on - year. The total original sample warehouse inventory in East and South China was 497,900 tons, an increase of 3.26% from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. The total expanded sample warehouse inventory in East and South China was 819,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.83% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.72% [182]. Raw Materials - **Lancoke**: In August, the Lancoke price rose slightly twice. The price of medium - sized Lancoke in Shaanxi increased from 606 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 645 yuan/ton, a 6.6% increase. The start - up rate of Lancoke increased from 53.65% at the beginning of the month to 56.7%. In the future, with the end of some enterprise maintenance and the weakening of coal prices, the start - up of Lancoke enterprises is expected to further increase [68]. - **Calcium carbide**: In August, the calcium carbide market price showed a flat "V" - shaped trend, with the end - of - month price rising compared to the beginning. The average start - up load rate of the calcium carbide industry decreased in the first ten - day period, then rebounded and stabilized. In the future, most calcium carbide start - ups may remain stable, but the increase in start - up may be limited [73]. - **Caustic soda**: In August, the price center of liquid caustic soda moved up. The 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased from 820 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 870 yuan/ton, a 6.1% increase. The start - up of caustic soda decreased from 83.9% at the beginning of the month to 82.4%. In the future, it is expected that the short - term liquid caustic soda price will remain strong, and the caustic soda profit will continue to make up for the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit [78]. 3.2 Monthly Price Data Changes - Futures prices: V2601 decreased from 5,176 yuan/ton at the end of July to 4,907 yuan/ton on August 29, a decrease of 269 yuan/ton; AS60E decreased from 5,469 yuan/ton to 5,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 269 yuan/ton [14]. - PVC spot prices: The calcium - carbide method prices in East, South, North, and Northwest China all decreased to varying degrees; the ethylene - method price in East China decreased from 5,100 yuan/ton to 5,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [14]. - Prices of related products in the PVC industry chain: The prices of Lancoke, ethylene, and 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong increased, while the prices of calcium carbide in Shandong and 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Inner Mongolia decreased [14]. - Spreads: The V2601 - 2605 spread remained unchanged at - 293 yuan/ton; the 01 basis increased from - 355 yuan/ton to - 280 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton [14]. - Profits: The comprehensive profit of calcium - carbide method (northwest integrated chlor - alkali) decreased from 590.91 yuan/ton to 376.61 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit of calcium - carbide method (north - China purchased calcium carbide) decreased from 169 yuan/ton to 19.35 yuan/ton; the profit of ethylene - method (east - China purchased VCM) increased from 5.20 yuan/ton to 27.38 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3 Disk Review and Disk Data - **This month's market review**: In August, the PVC price first oscillated and then weakened under the increasing supply - demand pressure. By the afternoon of August 29, the price dropped to around 4,907, a 4.74% decrease from the beginning of the month [19]. - **Disk data performance**: After the main contract shifted to 01, the 01 basis in East China was around - 280; the 1 - 5 spread remained weak at around - 293. The position of the 01 contract was around 1.195 million lots, a record high. The registered warrants increased from 583,000 lots at the beginning of the month to around 841,000 lots at the end of the month [20][21]. 3.4 Spreads and Profits Regional Spreads and Quality Spreads - **Regional spreads**: The spread between East - and South - China calcium - carbide method first strengthened from around - 150 to around - 50 and then returned to the initial level; the spread between East - and North - China calcium - carbide method weakened from - 45 to around - 83 [37]. - **Ethylene - calcium - carbide spread**: The ethylene - calcium - carbide spread strengthened from 305 to around 373 [37]. Profits - The profit of calcium - carbide method PVC in Northwest China (integrated with self - owned power plant) and the profit of calcium - carbide method PVC in North China (purchased calcium carbide) both decreased; the profit of ethylene - method PVC (purchased VCM) increased [14]. 3.5 Related Products in the Industrial Chain Calcium - Carbide Method - **Lancoke**: Lancoke is the raw material for calcium carbide. In August, the price of Lancoke in Shaanxi increased slightly, and the start - up rate increased. In the future, the start - up of Lancoke enterprises is expected to further increase [68]. - **Calcium carbide**: Calcium carbide is the main raw material for calcium - carbide method PVC. In August, the price of calcium carbide first decreased and then increased, and the start - up rate first decreased and then stabilized. In the future, the start - up of calcium carbide may remain stable, but the increase may be limited [73]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is usually produced in conjunction with PVC. In August, the price of caustic soda increased, and the start - up rate decreased. In the future, it is expected that the short - term caustic soda price will remain strong, and the caustic soda profit will continue to make up for the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit [78]. 3.6 Production Capacity Release Progress - **Put - into - production capacity**: In 2024, Xinshu Chemical's 250,000 - ton ethylene - method device was trial - produced smoothly and put into production; in 2025, Fujian Wanhua's 500,000 - ton ethylene - method device was included in production on August 2 [93]. - **Withdrawn capacity**: In 2025, Hubei Yihua's 120,000 - ton calcium - carbide method device withdrew from production [93]. - **Planned production capacity**: In 2025, Huade Development's 400,000 - ton ethylene - method device is planned to be put into production in September; Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton ethylene - method device is planned to be put into production in September; Jiahua Energy's 800,000 - ton device is planned to be put into production in the fourth quarter [94]. 3.7 Start - Up and Maintenance - In August, PVC start - up first increased and then decreased, mainly related to its maintenance plan. The overall production in August increased due to the release of new production capacity [102]. - On August 29, the overall start - up load rate of PVC powder was 73.33%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.69%. The start - up load rate of calcium - carbide method PVC powder was 75.24%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.83%; the start - up load rate of ethylene - method PVC powder was 68.68% [102]. 3.8 Import and Export Volume Statistics - In July 2025, the PVC import volume was 24,500 tons, with a cumulative import of 148,800 tons from January to July. The single - month import increased by 2.10% month - on - month and 46.98% year - on - year. The cumulative import increased by 0.03% year - on - year. The import mainly came from the United States and Northeast Asia, and the import dependence was about 1% [125]. - In July 2025, the PVC export volume was 330,600 tons, with a cumulative export of 2,291,000 tons from January to July. The single - month export increased by 26.17% month - on - month and 112.82% year - on - year. The cumulative export increased by 56.91% year - on - year. The main export destinations were India and Vietnam [125]. 3.9 Downstream Start - Up Load - The current downstream start - up is at a low level compared to the same period, especially the start - up of pipe enterprises has deteriorated significantly. Domestic downstream product enterprises continue to purchase at low prices and resist high - priced raw materials [9]. 3.10 Terminal Situation - In the real estate industry, from January to July, the cumulative year - on - year decline in real estate investment was 12%, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in new construction area was 19.4%, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in construction area was 9.2%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease in completion area was 16.5%. The real estate industry may still be in a downturn, and the demand for PVC may continue to shrink [178]. 3.11 Inventory - As of August 28, the inventory in East and South China continued to increase. The total original sample warehouse inventory in East and South China was 497,900 tons, an increase of 3.26% from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. The total expanded sample warehouse inventory in East and South China was 819,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.83% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.72% [182]. - The sample production enterprise's PVC powder available inventory increased, and the factory inventory decreased [184].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views Plastic - Supply - demand contradiction eases, with strong bottom support. The "Golden September and Silver October" traditional consumption season is coming, downstream demand shows signs of recovery, and supply pressure eases, but there is still inventory pressure. It is expected that the LL main contract will fluctuate in the range of 7200 - 7500, and short - selling opportunities should be watched [8]. PP - There is significant trend pressure, and it will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Although the supply side maintains high pressure, the downward space of the market is limited. It is expected that the PP main contract will fluctuate weakly, and the range of 6950 - 7300 should be watched [9]. Summary by Directory Plastic Market Changes - On August 29, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7287 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 63 yuan/ton or - 0.86%. The average price of LDPE was 9650 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.40%; the average price of HDPE was 7982.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.09%; the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7591.18 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.09%. The LLDPE South China basis was 304.18 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 90.81%; the 5 - 9 month spread was - 68 yuan/ton (- 5), with the basis widening and the month spread narrowing [8][11]. Fundamental Changes - **Cost and Profit**: WTI crude oil was at 64.01 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 5.35 US dollars/barrel from the previous month; Brent crude oil was at 67.46 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 4.32 US dollars/barrel from the previous month. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1080 yuan/ton (+30). The profit of oil - based PE was - 305 yuan/ton, an increase of 168 yuan/ton from the previous month; the profit of coal - based PE was 936 yuan/ton, a decrease of 206 yuan/ton from the previous month [8]. - **Supply**: The production start - up rate of polyethylene was 78.68%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points from the previous month. The weekly output of polyethylene was 61.78 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%. The maintenance of petrochemical enterprise equipment remained at a high level, and the maintenance loss this week was 13.20 tons, an increase of 0.92 tons from the previous week [8][32]. - **Demand**: The overall domestic agricultural film start - up rate was 17.46%, an increase of 4.83% from the previous month; the PE packaging film start - up rate was 49.56%, an increase of 1.49% from the previous month; the PE pipe start - up rate was 30.17%, an increase of 1.34% from the previous month [8][39]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of plastic enterprises was 56.20 tons, an increase of 0.36 tons or 0.64% from the end of last month [8]. Main Operating Logic - The traditional consumption season is coming, downstream demand recovers, and supply pressure eases. However, due to the large amount of production capacity to be put into operation in the second half of the year, there is still resistance to upward breakthrough. The short - term supply - demand contradiction eases, which strongly supports the market [8]. Key Points of Attention - Downstream demand, Fed rate cuts, Sino - US talks, Middle East situation, and crude oil price fluctuations [8]. PP Market Changes - On August 29, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6974 yuan/ton, a decrease of 144 yuan/ton from the previous month [9][53]. Fundamental Changes - **Cost and Profit**: WTI crude oil was at 64.01 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 5.35 US dollars/barrel from the previous month; Brent crude oil was at 67.46 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 4.32 US dollars/barrel from the previous month. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1080 yuan/ton (+30). The profit of oil - based PP was - 327.71 yuan/ton, an increase of 40.90 yuan/ton from the previous month; the profit of coal - based PP was 364.08 yuan/ton, a decrease of 212.60 yuan/ton from the previous month [9][70]. - **Supply**: The start - up rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 80.00%, an increase of 3.06 percentage points from the previous month. The weekly output of PP pellets was 80.88 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.86%; the weekly output of PP powder was 7.39 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.29% [9][77]. - **Demand**: The average downstream start - up rate was 49.74% (+1.37). The start - up rate of plastic weaving was 42.30% (-1.20), the start - up rate of BOPP was 60.40% (+0.40%), the start - up rate of injection molding was 57.44% (+1.64%), and the start - up rate of pipes was 36.37% (+0.20%) [9][83]. - **Inventory**: The domestic PP inventory was 53.85 tons (-5.91%); the inventory of two major oil companies decreased by 12.93% month - on - month; the inventory of traders decreased by 1.81% month - on - month; the port inventory increased by 2.73% month - on - month [9][92]. Main Operating Logic - The weekly output of PP has increased again, and the supply side remains loose. Although downstream demand is still weak, there is an expectation of an increase in start - up due to the consumption season and low prices. The downward space of the market is limited [9]. Key Points of Attention - Downstream demand, Fed rate cuts, Sino - US talks, Middle East situation, and crude oil price fluctuations [9].