Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The polyolefin market is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Plastic and PP开工率 - Plastic开工率 dropped 2.5 percentage points to around 87%, at a neutral level, due to new maintenance devices like Zhongtianhechuang LDPE 1 line [15] - PP企业开工率 fell 0.5 percentage points to around 83%, at a neutral - low level, with new maintenance devices such as CNOOC Daxie old line [15] Plastic and PP下游开工率 - As of the week of November 14, PE下游开工率 decreased 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% week - on - week, remaining at a low level in recent years. Although the agricultural film is in the peak season with stable orders and raw material inventory, packaging film orders are slightly decreasing [21] - As of the week of November 14, PP下游开工率 increased 0.14 percentage points to 53.28% week - on - week, at a low level in the same period over the years. However, the plastic weaving开工率 of the main downstream of drawing decreased 0.12 percentage points to 44.24% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders decreased slightly compared with last year [21] Plastic基差 - Spot prices are stable, futures prices are rising, and the 01 contract basis has dropped to 247 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [26] Plastic and PP库存 - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased 25,000 tons to 640,000 tons week - on - week, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory is currently at a neutral level in recent years [30]

后市来看，短期内全国范围暂无新装置投产。而分区域来看，近期华南区域新增东莞巨正源四条产线 140万吨产能全线停车，同时仍有多套装置计划检修，且存量检修装置多在本月底以后陆续重启，因此 短期内华南区域供应压力将进一步减小，华南拉丝价格底部支撑更强。 进一步从区域价差方面来看，今年以来，华南-华北拉丝价差最高达到270元／吨，华南-华东拉丝价差 最高在145元／吨，华东-华北拉丝价差最高在180元／吨，华南-华北拉丝价差最低达到-130元／吨，华 南-华东拉丝价差最低在-130元／吨，华东-华北拉丝价差最低在-60元／吨。但从变化看，三大区价差在 1-10月份逐渐收窄，但近期华南、华东与华北的价差均有扩大。 这主要是因为，一方面，近期华北区域拉丝价格下跌幅度最大，华南和华东区域拉丝价格相对坚挺，使 得三大区拉丝价差出现差异。上半年华南和华北区域今年新投装置较多，在供应增加的压制下，其区域 内拉丝市场价格下跌幅度增加，下半年华东、华南与华北的价差进一步收窄至0-50元／吨左右。另一方 面，10月份以来，虽然华东和华南区域新增了大榭石化二期一线和广西石化二期装置投放，但同时新增 了多套计划外的装置检修，不仅对冲了新装 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report Cost increases and the Double Eleven peak season have pushed up PP prices, but the overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, so PP is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - PP downstream开工率 increased 0.14 percentage points to 53.28% week - on - week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. However, the开工 rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawing grade, decreased 0.12 percentage points to 44.24%, and orders decreased slightly compared to the previous period and were slightly lower than the same period last year [1]. - On November 14, some maintenance devices such as the third line of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical restarted, and the PP enterprise开工率 rose to around 83%, at a moderately low level. The production ratio of the standard drawing grade dropped to around 23% [1][4]. - Petrochemical inventories are being depleted normally and are currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil has a limited increase due to the expected end of the US government shutdown and the adjustment of the global oil supply from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 by OPEC [1]. - The new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and there has been a slight increase in maintenance devices recently. Although the downstream is in the peak season, the follow - up of orders such as plastic weaving is limited, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market, so the boost to the market is limited [1]. - There is no actual anti - involution policy implemented in the PP industry. Anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of over - capacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro - policies that will affect future market trends [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The PP2601 contract oscillated with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 6,468 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,518 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,474 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.40%. The open interest decreased by 6,371 lots to 622,052 lots [2]. - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions were stable. The drawing grade was reported at 6,240 - 6,580 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 14, some maintenance devices such as the third line of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical restarted, and the PP enterprise开工率 rose to around 83%, at a moderately low level [4]. - Demand: As of the week of November 14, the PP downstream开工率 increased 0.14 percentage points to 53.28% week - on - week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The开工 rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawing grade, decreased 0.12 percentage points to 44.24%, and orders decreased slightly compared to the previous period and were slightly lower than the same period last year [4]. - Inventory: Petrochemical early inventory on Friday decreased by 25,000 tons to 640,000 tons week - on - week, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventories are being depleted normally and are currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $5 per ton to $725 per ton week - on - week [4].

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-11-12 煤价回落明显，成本端受拖累 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6760元/吨（-42），PP主力合约收盘价为6429元/吨（-51），LL华北现货为6800 元/吨（+50），LL华东现货为6850元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6500元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为40元/吨（+92），LL 华东基差为90元/吨（+42）， PP华东基差为71元/吨（+51）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为82.6%（+1.7%），PP开工率为77.8%（+0.7%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为183.3元/吨（-100.9），PP油制生产利润为-406.7元/吨（-100.9），PDH制PP生产 利润为-107.7元/吨（-16.9）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-75.0元/吨（-67.4），PP进口利润为-168.0元/吨（+131.1），PP出口利润为-5.4美元/吨（-0.3）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为50.0%（+0.4%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.8%（-0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.5%（+0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polypropylene is in a phase of downward oscillation, and the price center is expected to decline in the later stage. The PP market is facing supply pressure due to new capacity coming online during the production capacity expansion period and high existing production loads. Although demand has entered the peak season, it fails to meet expectations and is unable to absorb the high output. As a result, the price of polypropylene may continue to move downward [7]. - The price of polypropylene continued to fall this week, with the PP01 contract dropping below 6,500 yuan/ton. The domestic commodity market sentiment has weakened again, putting pressure on commodity prices. The fundamentals of polyolefins have not changed significantly, with supply at a high level and demand in the peak season but lacking sufficient support [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The spot price of plastic standard products has also declined significantly, with the basis strengthening slightly. The East China basis strengthened by 20 to around -100 yuan/ton, the North China basis strengthened by 10 to around -170 yuan/ton, and the South China basis strengthened by 30 to around -100 yuan/ton. The non - standard basis of plastics has a stronger trend than the standard basis [18][19]. - **Regional and Non - standard Spread**: The North China - East China regional spread has fallen to a low level, and the South China - East China regional spread has oscillated. Among the non - standard spreads, the injection molding - drawing spread and the low - melt copolymer - drawing spread have both strengthened, indicating that non - standard products are relatively firm [33][34]. - **Disk Spread**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread has further declined to around -110, at a low level over the years. The L - PP01 spread has remained above 300, and the PP - 701 spread is at a high level, suggesting greater supply pressure for PP. The methanol market pattern is weak, with high imports leading to a record - high port inventory, and the methanol price has continued to decline [52]. 3.2 Domestic Production - end Profits and Supply - **Production Profits**: This week, the oil price has slightly oscillated downward to around $63.5 per barrel (Brent). The oil - based production end profit is at a relatively good level in recent years. In the medium to long term, the supply in North Asia from the Middle East and the United States is expected to increase, putting pressure on the PDH - based PP price, but the PDH - based profit has improved month - on - month. The power coal price has continued to rise, the CTO profit has deteriorated but remains at a high level, and the inland MTO profit has deteriorated under pressure [68]. - **Domestic Production Volume and Load**: In 2025, as of October, the new domestic PP production capacity has totaled 4.155 million tons, with a production capacity growth rate of 9.31%. The planned production capacity for 2025 is 4.905 million tons, and the estimated annual production capacity growth rate is 11%. This week, the PP production volume was 796,500 tons (+7,300 tons), the operating rate was 77.78% (+0.72%), and the supply loss volume was 228,400 tons [99][100][113]. - **Production Scheduling Ratio**: An increase in the drawing production scheduling ratio may indicate that the short - term standard product is stronger than the non - standard product, but the medium - term supply pressure may increase [124]. 3.3 US Dollar Price and Import - Export Profits - **US Dollar Price and Spread**: The prices in Northwest Europe and the Americas have fallen from high levels. The Asian price has continued to be weak. The spread between CFR China and the overseas market has rebounded [135]. - **Import - Export Profits**: Currently, overseas demand is weak, and inquiries are limited. With the increase in shipping costs, enterprises have offered discounts on exports to promote transactions. In terms of imports, although China's price is relatively low globally, the weak external demand has led to a decline in the purchasing capacity of overseas buyers, resulting in an increase in goods flowing to China [152]. 3.4 Downstream Profits and Operating Rates - **Downstream Operating Rates**: This week, the overall downstream operating rate was 53.14%, a month - on - month increase of 0.52%. The operating rate of plastic weaving increased by 0.26%, the BOPP operating rate increased by 0.88%, and the operating rate of PP pipes increased by 0.5%. In the future, the demand for terminal products will be slightly supported by the e - commerce festival and the cold weather, but the peak season is coming to an end [155]. 3.5 Inventory - Production enterprise inventories have increased by 48,000 tons to 599,900 tons, with Sinopec and PetroChina inventories increasing by 163,000 tons. Traders' inventories have increased by 15,000 tons, and port inventories have decreased by 700 tons [216].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Double Star New Materials, stated that its current operational situation is normal and it will continue to enhance its management practices to improve performance and intrinsic value [1] Group 1 - The company responded to investor inquiries on November 7, indicating that it is considering its actual development situation and overall strategic planning [1] - The company emphasized its commitment to ongoing operational management efforts [1] - The focus is on enhancing both performance and intrinsic value [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that plastics will likely experience weak and volatile trends in the near term. The increase in plastic production due to the restart of maintenance - related devices and new capacity, combined with the lackluster downstream demand and inventory at a neutral level, as well as the fluctuating cost of crude oil, contribute to this outlook. The absence of practical anti - involution policies also affects the market trend [1]. 3) Summary According to the Catalog **行情分析** - On November 5, the restart of maintenance devices such as Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's HDPE 3 - line increased the plastic operating rate to about 89.5%, which is at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37%. Although the agricultural film is in the peak season, the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The petrochemical inventory is currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years. The crude oil price fluctuates slightly, and new plastic production capacity has been added. The downstream procurement willingness is insufficient, and there are no practical anti - involution policies. [1] **期现行情** - **Futures**: The plastic 2601 contract showed an increasing - position and volatile operation, closing at 6814 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.97%. The trading volume increased by 20,008 lots to 553,147 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6790 - 7370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8970 - 9780 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7060 - 8090 yuan/ton [3]. **基本面跟踪** - **Supply**: On November 5, the restart of maintenance devices increased the plastic operating rate to about 89.5% [4]. - **Demand**: As of the week ending October 31, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37%. The agricultural film is in the peak season, but the overall downstream operating rate of PE is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [4]. - **Inventory**: On Wednesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 710,000 tons, 30,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years [4]. - **Raw Material**: Brent crude oil's 01 contract fluctuated around $65/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained unchanged at $730/ton, and that of Southeast Asian ethylene remained unchanged at $740/ton [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - PE is under pressure due to prominent supply - demand contradictions. High supply, limited demand from sectors like agricultural films, and weak cost - end support lead to continued weak and volatile trends [2]. - PP also faces supply - demand contradictions. Supply is in excess, demand support is limited, and cost - end support is weak. It will continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6879元/吨（-9）, PP主力合约收盘价为6560元/吨（-16）. LL华北现货为6870元/吨（-20）, LL华东现货为6950元/吨（-50）, PP华东现货为6530元/吨（-50）. LL华北基差为 - 9元/吨（-11）, LL华东基差为71元/吨（-41）, PP华东基差为 - 30元/吨（-34） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为80.9%（-0.6%）, PP开工率为77.1%（+1.1%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为272.7元/吨（-10.7）, PP油制生产利润为 - 387.3元/吨（-10.7）, PDH制PP生产利润为 - 109.5元/吨（+42.6） [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL进口利润为 - 7.0元/吨（-25.8）, PP进口利润为 - 255.7元/吨（+37.1）, PP出口利润为 - 15.8美元/吨（+0.7） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为49.5%（+2.4%）, PE下游包装膜开工率为51.3%（-1.3%）, PP下游塑编开工率为44.2%（-0.2%）, PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.6%（+0.2%） [1]. 2. Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply - side pressure is high due to reduced maintenance losses of domestic production facilities and the release of new production capacities. Demand growth may slow down, and cost - end support is expected to weaken. PE will continue weak and volatile [2]. - **PP**: Supply - demand contradictions exist. Supply is in excess, demand support is limited, and cost - end support is weak. It will continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [2]. 3. Strategy - **Single - side**: LLDPE is neutral; PP is recommended to be cautiously shorted at high prices [3]. - **Inter - term**: L01 - 05 is recommended to be shorted at high prices; PP01 - 05 is recommended to be shorted at high prices [3]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy is provided [3].

Core Viewpoint - The polypropylene (PP) prices have declined unexpectedly after the traditional peak demand season, primarily due to weaker-than-expected demand and falling oil prices, leading the industry into a state of overall losses [1][5][11] Demand and Supply Analysis - The traditional peak demand season, known as "Golden September and Silver October," did not exhibit significant characteristics this year, with the global economic downturn impacting PP's essential demand [1][9] - In September, domestic plastic product output was 7.303 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.54%, marking two consecutive months of decline [1] - BOPP demand has shown limited improvement, with downstream sectors such as e-commerce, food packaging, and clothing packaging underperforming expectations, resulting in a 15% year-on-year decrease in orders for injection molding enterprises [3] - The PP industry is experiencing severe oversupply, with many companies, particularly PDH enterprises, reducing production or shutting down due to losses, which may help alleviate inventory pressure [9][11] Price and Profitability Trends - Oil prices have significantly dropped, with WTI crude oil falling from $78 per barrel to $55 per barrel, a nearly 30% decline, which has negatively impacted chemical products, including PP [5] - As of early November, the losses for various PP production methods are as follows: oil-based PP at 550 yuan/ton, coal-based PP at 300 yuan/ton, methanol-based PP at 1000 yuan/ton, propylene-based PP at 250 yuan/ton, and PDH-based PP at 800 yuan/ton [5] - The overall profitability of PP has been compressed, with the industry entering a comprehensive loss state [5][11] Production and Operational Insights - The PP maintenance season primarily occurs from April to July, with a notable increase in operating rates post-August, reaching over 85%. However, unplanned maintenance has led to a decline in operating rates below 85% in September and further down to 80% by the end of October, nearing historical lows [6][9] - The expansion of PP production capacity has mainly occurred in the first half of the year, resulting in limited market impact from new capacities in the second half, thus alleviating supply pressure [9][10] Trade Dynamics - In September, China's polypropylene imports reached 290,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 17.49%, while cumulative imports from January to September totaled 2.4578 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.01% [10] - Conversely, September's polypropylene exports were 237,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.88%, with cumulative exports from January to September amounting to 2.3411 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 28.27% [10] - The changing import-export dynamics have somewhat alleviated domestic supply-demand imbalances, with some months seeing higher export volumes than imports, indicating a potential shift from a net importer to a net exporter of PP [10]

Summary of WanKai New Materials Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: WanKai New Materials - **Industry**: PET (Polyethylene Terephthalate) and RPT (Recycled PET) materials Key Points Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, WanKai New Materials achieved revenue of **42.2 billion yuan**, with a net profit of **21.3 million yuan**, marking a **130% year-on-year increase** in net profit despite a **5% decline** in revenue due to lower bottle chip prices [2][3][4] - Total profit for the first nine months reached **77.59 million yuan**, reflecting a **183% year-on-year growth** [2][3] Industry Dynamics - The bottle chip industry experienced rapid capacity expansion post-2022, leading to pressure on processing fees. However, industry-wide coordinated production cuts of over **20%** since June have resulted in a recovery of processing fees [2][6] - The company anticipates further recovery in processing fees as social inventory is gradually digested, although attention is needed on the absorption of new capacities [2][6] Project Contributions - The Sichuan Dazhou project began contributing revenue in Q3, with profits from the ethylene glycol project exceeding **20 million yuan** [2][4][7] - The ethylene glycol business is expected to improve significantly next year as there will be no new capacity pressure, allowing for better profit realization [7] Strategic Initiatives - WanKai is actively expanding into new areas, notably through investment in Lingxi Qiaoshou, which has seen its valuation increase nearly **fivefold** in six months [2][8][17] - The collaboration with French company Carbyne on the RPT project aims to establish the world's first **10,000-ton** bio-enzymatic depolymerization process in China, with plans for a **1 million-ton** capacity across Asia [2][10][11] RPT Project Progress - The RPT project is progressing as planned, with technical validation and commercialization negotiations completed. An announcement regarding further details is expected soon [10][11][12] - The demand for recycled materials, particularly in Europe, is significant, with estimates exceeding **4 million tons** annually [14] Market Demand and Competition - Major brands like Michelin and L'Oréal have substantial annual demands for recycled materials, indicating a strong market for high-quality products [15] - The company holds exclusive rights for bio-enzymatic methods in Asia, allowing it to control production expansion and optimize profits [25][27] Cost Considerations - Natural gas prices are expected to rise seasonally, impacting costs, but the overall effect on profits is anticipated to be limited due to lower sales volumes during the off-peak season [16] International Expansion - The Nigerian bottle chip project is expected to commence production in **H1 2026**, with anticipated profits significantly higher than domestic levels due to local price disparities [21][22] - Plans for projects in Indonesia and the Middle East are underway to further enhance international market presence [21][23] Research and Development - The company is focusing on enhancing enzyme activity and optimizing process technology in collaboration with Kabeas for renewable polyester [19] - Significant advancements have been made in precision injection molding in partnership with Lingxi Qiaoshou, with expectations of substantial sales growth in 2025 [17][18] Future Outlook - WanKai New Materials is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for recycled materials and is strategically expanding its capabilities and market reach to ensure sustainable growth [2][10][11][25][27]