预期与现实博弈， PVC震荡向上 PVC月报 2026/02/06 马桂炎（联系人） 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0022675 从业资格号：F03136381 徐绍祖（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 03 利润库存 06 需求端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本利润：乌海电石价格报2550元/吨，月同比上涨225元/吨；山东电石价格报2930元/吨，月同比上涨150元/吨；兰炭陕西中料785元/吨， 月同比下跌35元/吨。利润方面，氯碱综合一体化利润重新下滑至历史低位，乙烯制利润大幅回升，综合估值压力较小。 ◆ 供应：PVC产能利用率79.3%，月同比上升0.6%；其中电石法80.9%，月同比上升2.5%；乙烯法75.5%，月同比下降3.8%。上月检修量仍然较小， 平均产能利用率持稳，供应压力仍然较大。 ◆ 需求：出口方面，十二月出口量小幅回升，出口退税政策计划4月1日取消，短期进入抢出口阶段，预期出口量大幅上升；三大下游开工季节 性下滑，管材 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downstream overall start - up of polyolefins continued to decline. The polyolefin market was affected by cost, supply, demand, and macro - sentiment, with the overall situation being weak. The supply - demand fundamentals of PE and PP were not substantially reversed and showed signs of weakening, with large destocking pressure. The short - term disk trends were expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to macro - level guidance and the destocking process [2][3] - For the strategy, it was recommended to wait and see for L/PP in the single - sided trading. For the cross - variety trading, it was advisable to cautiously shrink the L - PP spread when it was high [4] Summary According to the Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis and Inter - Period Structure - The L main contract closed at 6,777 yuan/ton (- 141), and the PP main contract closed at 6,676 yuan/ton (- 125). The LL North China spot was 6,650 yuan/ton (- 80), the LL East China spot was 6,850 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the PP East China spot was 6,680 yuan/ton (+ 0). The LL North China basis was - 127 yuan/ton (+ 61), the LL East China basis was 73 yuan/ton (+ 141), and the PP East China basis was 4 yuan/ton (+ 125) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate was 85.9% (+ 0.6%), and the PP operating rate was 73.9% (- 0.9%). The PE oil - based production profit was - 88.5 yuan/ton (- 105.0), the PP oil - based production profit was - 498.5 yuan/ton (- 105.0), and the PDH - based PP production profit was - 450.8 yuan/ton (- 88.0) [1] 3. Non - Standard Price Difference of Polyolefins - Not elaborated on specific data in the text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The LL import profit was 13.2 yuan/ton (+ 54.6), the PP import profit was - 282.1 yuan/ton (+ 4.7), and the PP export profit was - 60.1 US dollars/ton (+ 19.4) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating and Downstream Profits - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 30.2% (- 4.4%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 38.8% (- 3.3%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 36.7% (- 5.3%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 64.6% (+ 0.4%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Not elaborated on specific data in the text

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance in Q1-Q3 2025, with revenue and net profit showing significant year-on-year growth, driven by the demand for modified plastics in various industries, including traditional appliances and emerging markets like new energy vehicles and robotics [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 15.497 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.44%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 615 million yuan, up 34.24% year-on-year [1]. - For Q3 2025, revenue reached 5.743 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.81% year-on-year growth and a 7.52% quarter-on-quarter increase. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 269 million yuan, marking a 46.67% year-on-year rise and a 14.66% quarter-on-quarter increase [1]. Business Growth Drivers - The company's modified and composite materials business is expanding, capitalizing on opportunities in traditional and emerging markets, including partnerships with leading clients such as Hisense, Gree, CATL, and BYD [1]. - The company is focusing on high-end product development in areas like HP-RTM ultra-thin battery packs and PHB, which is driving product premiumization [1]. - Strategic investments in humanoid robotics and low-altitude economy sectors are underway, including a planned 1,000-ton PEEK materials project and the establishment of an autonomous computing center for AI model training [1]. Industry Outlook - China's modified plastics production is expected to grow significantly, with the modification rate increasing from 15.2% to 26.2% from 2014 to 2024, indicating substantial room for improvement compared to international standards [2]. - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for high polymer modified materials and composite materials in China is projected to be 14.1% from 2025 to 2029, driven by new industries such as robotics and low-altitude economy, as well as increased demand for modified plastics in appliances and automotive lightweighting [2]. Strategic Investments - The company is enhancing its vertical integration in the chemical industry through strategic investments in projects like Guo'en Yisu, Hong Kong Petrochemical, and Guo'en Dongming [2]. - The production capacity of Guo'en Yisu's 1 million tons of polystyrene (PS) project is progressing, with the first phase of 600,000 tons already operational [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the source and quality of recycled plastics (PCR) in determining their performance and suitability for various applications, highlighting that not all recycled materials are created equal [5][12][19]. Group 1: Source and Quality of PCR Materials - The value of PCR materials is not just about their recycling status but rather their previous applications, which significantly affect their performance characteristics [5]. - A case study illustrates that even seemingly high-quality PCR materials can perform poorly if sourced from inappropriate origins, leading to unexpected issues during production [5][8]. - The article warns against suppliers who misrepresent the quality of their PCR materials, often mixing high-quality sources with lower-quality ones, resulting in inconsistent product performance [12][19]. Group 2: Stability and Processing Challenges - The stability of PCR materials is crucial, as variations in processing can lead to significant quality issues, such as inconsistent melt flow rates and dimensional changes in final products [8][9]. - A specific example shows how a batch of PCR-PP exhibited extreme variability in performance, causing production disruptions and quality control challenges [9][19]. - The article stresses the need for rigorous quality control measures throughout the production process to ensure batch consistency and reliability [23][25]. Group 3: Supplier Evaluation and Best Practices - Companies are advised to thoroughly vet suppliers by examining their material sourcing, processing methods, and quality control practices to avoid potential pitfalls [19][25]. - The article suggests implementing a multi-step purification process to enhance the quality of PCR materials, including color sorting, infrared analysis, and electrostatic separation to eliminate impurities [27][28][29]. - It is recommended that companies require suppliers to provide detailed documentation and testing reports for multiple batches to ensure transparency and reliability [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The cost side of PE and PP is disturbed by factors such as the rebound of international oil prices and propane, and the market sentiment is cautious, with the disk tending to fluctuate. The supply - demand fundamentals of both are weak, with strong supply and weak demand, and the de - stocking pressure is large. The short - term disk rebound sustainability needs to pay attention to the macro - level guidance and the de - stocking process [2] - It is recommended to wait and see for L/PP in the unilateral strategy, as the current supply - demand fundamentals are weak and the rebound sustainability may be limited [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6918 yuan/ton (+53), PP main contract at 6801 yuan/ton (+71). LL North China spot was 6730 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot 6850 yuan/ton (+50), PP East China spot 6680 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 188 yuan/ton (-53), LL East China basis - 68 yuan/ton (-3), PP East China basis - 121 yuan/ton (-71) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 85.4% (+0.7%), PP operating rate 74.8% (-1.2%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 16.5 yuan/ton (-128.9), PP oil - based production profit - 343.5 yuan/ton (-128.9), PDH - based PP production profit - 362.8 yuan/ton (+25.2) [1] - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was - 41.4 yuan/ton (-52.8), PP import profit - 286.8 yuan/ton (-2.9), PP export profit - 79.5 dollars/ton (+0.4) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 34.6% (-1.8%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate 42.1% (-2.9%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate 42.0% (+0.0%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate 64.2% (+0.2%) [1] 2. Market Analysis - **PE**: The cost side is disturbed by the rebound of international oil prices. The supply is increasing and the demand is decreasing. The supply pressure is expected to rise due to the restart of many devices and more incoming resources. The demand is in the off - season with weak order follow - up. The supply - demand fundamentals are weakening, and the de - stocking pressure is large [2] - **PP**: The cost side is disturbed by the rebound of propane and international oil prices. The supply is difficult to be significantly supported, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The supply - demand structure is weak, and the disk is affected by the cost and macro - sentiment [2] 3. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Wait and see for L/PP, as the current supply - demand fundamentals are weak and the short - term cost side fluctuates strongly, and the rebound sustainability may be limited [3] - **Inter - period**: None [4] - **Inter - variety**: None [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market anticipates a weakening in pre - holiday demand. For PE, due to the decline in international oil prices, the cost - side support for plastics has weakened. With an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, the polyolefin market has corrected. For PP, the cost - side support of propane and oil has declined, and the market sentiment is cautious, leading to a correction in both futures and spot prices [2][3]. - The current supply - demand fundamentals of polyolefins are weak. For PE, there is an expected increase in supply pressure, and downstream demand is in the off - season with weak order follow - up. For PP, the supply side lacks strong support, and demand is expected to decline seasonally. The market is affected by cost - side and macro - sentiment fluctuations, and the sustainability of the rebound is limited. The report recommends a wait - and - see approach for L/PP [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6865 yuan/ton (-13), and that of the PP main contract is 6730 yuan/ton (+16). LL North China spot is 6730 yuan/ton (-70), LL East China spot is 6800 yuan/ton (-50), and PP East China spot is 6680 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis is -135 yuan/ton (-57), LL East China basis is -65 yuan/ton (-37), and PP East China basis is -50 yuan/ton (-16) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 85.4% (+0.7%), and the PP operating rate is 74.8% (-1.2%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is 145.4 yuan/ton (+260.7), the PP oil - based production profit is -264.6 yuan/ton (+260.7), and the PDH - based PP production profit is -388.0 yuan/ton (+117.3) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: The LL import profit is 11.4 yuan/ton (-65.3), the PP import profit is -283.9 yuan/ton (+44.8), and the PP export profit is -79.8 US dollars/ton (-5.7) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 34.6% (-1.8%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 42.1% (-2.9%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.0% (+0.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 64.2% (+0.2%) [1]. Market Analysis - **PE**: The decline in international oil prices has led to a weakening of cost - side support. In terms of supply, there are many restarted devices, limited planned maintenance in February, and an increase in imported resources. In terms of demand, it is in the off - season, with a decline in overall downstream operating rates and weak order follow - up. The supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the de - stocking pressure is large [2]. - **PP**: The cost - side support of propane and oil has declined, and the market sentiment is cautious. On the supply side, PDH is in a deep loss, but there is limited planned maintenance in the future, and some devices are resuming production. On the demand side, it is in the off - season, and there is a seasonal decline in demand with limited new orders. The supply - demand structure is weak, and the de - stocking pressure may limit the rebound space [3]. Strategy - **Single - sided**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for L/PP. The short - term cost - side fluctuations are strong, and the macro - and capital - side disturbances are increasing. The current supply - demand fundamentals of polyolefins are weak, and the sustainability of the rebound may be limited [4]. - **Inter - period**: No strategy is provided [5]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy is provided [5].

【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2026年2月3日 PP2605合约增仓震荡运行，最低价6681元/吨，最高价6771元/吨，最终收盘于6730元/吨， 在20日均线上方，跌幅0.65%。持仓量增加229手至509892手。 现货方面： PP各地区现货价格多数下跌。拉丝报6340-6880元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 【行情分析】 截至1月30日当周，PP下游开工率环比回落0.79个百分点至52.08%，处于历年农历同期中性水平。 其中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比持平于42.04%，但塑编订单环比继续小幅下降，略低于去年同期。 2月3日，茂名石化二线等检修装置重启开车，PP企业开工率上涨至80%左右，处于中性偏低水平，标 品拉丝生产比例维持在29%左右。1月底，石化去库较快，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏低水平。成 本端，地缘局势降温，本次寒潮转弱，原油价格大幅下跌。近期检修装置略有减少。下游BOPP膜价 格继续反弹，临近春节放假，下游塑编开工率稳定，但其新增订单有限。宏观情绪降温，塑料短期 跟随市场情绪偏弱震荡，春节前PP ...

道恩股份公告称，公司拟以自有或自筹资金收购境外目标公司100%股权，该目标公司由现有公司塑料 和工程塑料化合物业务部门分立设立，暂定总购买价格为15737000美元；交易完成后目标公司拟向HS Polytech购买5626平方米土地使用权及942平方米建筑物所有权，购买价格1300000美元。本次交易尚需 相关主管部门备案或批准，存在审批、整合、汇率波动等风险。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2026年1月30日 【行情分析】 截至1月30日当周，PP下游开工率环比回落0.79个百分点至52.08%，处于历年农历同期中性水平。 其中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比持平于42.04%，但塑编订单环比继续小幅下降，略低于去年同期。 1月30日，新增独山子石化一线等检修装置，PP企业开工率下跌至78.5%左右，处于偏低水平，标品拉 丝生产比例上涨至28%左右。临近月底，石化去库较快，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏低水平。成本 端，寒冷天气推动柴油取暖需求，需求担忧有所缓解，加上伊朗地缘局势升温，原油价格上涨。近 期检修装置略有增加。下游BOPP膜价格继续反弹，临近春节放假，下游塑编开工率稳定，但其新增 订单有限。低估值、寒冷天气及伊朗地缘局势推动下，化工板块情绪好转，PP短期跟随市场情绪偏 强震荡，只是PP供需格局改善有限，现货跟进有限，基差走低，PP反弹可持续性谨慎对待。由于塑 料近日有新增产能投产，开工率较PP高，叠加地膜集中需求尚未开启，预计L-PP价差回落。 【期现行情】 期货方面： PP2605合约减仓震荡运行，最低价6765元/吨，最高价6959元/ ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2026-01-30 油价反弹走高，成本端支撑偏强 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7049元/吨（+82），PP主力合约收盘价为6870元/吨（+92），LL华北现货为6890 元/吨（+60），LL华东现货为6950元/吨（+50），PP华东现货为6640元/吨（+30），LL华北基差为-159元/吨（-22）， LL华东基差为-99元/吨（-32）， PP华东基差为-230元/吨（-62）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为85.4%（+0.7%），PP开工率为74.8%（-1.2%）。 单边：LLDPE谨慎逢低做多套保，PP谨慎逢低做多套保；短期成本端波动偏强，但需关注聚烯烃当前供需基本面 仍偏弱，反弹持续性或受限，持续关注地缘局势变化。 跨期：无 进出口方面，LL进口利润为50.6元/吨（-315.1），PP进口利润为-323.1元/吨（+89.7），PP出口利润为-69.5美元/吨（-1.4）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为34.6%（-1.8%），PE下游包装膜开工率为42.1%（-2.9%），PP下游塑编开工率 为42.0%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP ...