1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel and stainless - steel markets continue to show a volatile trend under macro - level pressure. The nickel market is in a state of policy - fundamental game, with long - term support from Indonesian policy on the cost side and suppression from the macro and supply - demand pattern. The stainless - steel market has a strong supply growth expectation compared to the demand side, but cost support remains, and it will follow the nickel price trend and maintain volatility in the short term [1][4][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 24, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 134,000 yuan/ton and closed at 133,480 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.42% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 442,345 (- 21,537) lots, and the open interest was 181,146 (+ 1,440) lots. The nickel market is in a state of policy - fundamental game. Policy - wise, the nickel ore mining quota has decreased from 3.79 billion tons to 2.6 - 2.7 billion tons, leading to a tight supply at the ore end. Fundamentally, the supply output continues to rise, inventories at home and abroad are increasing, and the market supply is sufficient. The demand side has stable support from stainless - steel mills and new - energy vehicles, but it is in the off - season with limited improvement [1] Nickel Ore - The cost - side of raw materials has a stronger expectation of price increase, and the bargaining center of the nickel ore market continues to move up. In the Philippines, the tense Middle - East geopolitical situation has led to a significant increase in nickel ore shipping costs and mining costs, and the price of Philippine nickel ore is under short - term pressure. In Indonesia, the approval progress of RKAB ore quotas is slow, and the premium of domestic trade nickel ore remains strong, with some premiums rising to $45 - 50 per wet ton [2] Spot - The domestic refined nickel spot market continues to show a weak and volatile trend, with a slight downward movement in the price center. The supply side has increased the enthusiasm of traders to sell goods, and some holders have lowered the premium to recover funds. The demand side has a strong wait - and - see atmosphere, with only rigid - demand users replenishing inventory at low prices. The trading is light. The premium of Jinchuan nickel has changed by - 300 yuan/ton to 6,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel has changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 150 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 58,006 (+ 374) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 282,888 (+ 96) tons [3] Strategy - The Shanghai nickel has shown strong resilience recently, maintaining a wide - range volatile pattern in a macro - bearish environment. It is expected to remain in an interval - volatile state in the short term. The recommended strategy is mainly interval operation [4] Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 24, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 14,070 yuan/ton and closed at 14,290 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 262,223 (+ 87,100) lots, and the open interest was 124,889 (- 4,171) lots. The supply side is expected to have a total production of 3.5364 million tons of stainless - steel crude steel in March, with a month - on - month increase of 36.5% and a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The demand side has a slower - than - expected recovery in the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season, with only rigid - demand replenishment. In April, consumption is expected to continue to pick up, and inventory is unlikely to rise, providing bottom support for prices. The spot market has seen some recovery in confidence, with an increase in inquiries and transactions [5] Strategy - The supply growth expectation on the fundamental side is stronger than the demand side, but cost support remains. The stainless - steel price will follow the nickel price trend in the short term and is expected to maintain volatility. The recommended strategy is neutral [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper is expected to be bullish in the medium - term, with potential for price increases due to limited supply and incremental demand, despite short - term downward pressure from inventory and geopolitical factors [1] - Aluminum is expected to perform relatively strongly in the metal sector due to supply damage and high energy dependence, despite overall pressure on non - ferrous metals [1] - Zinc has weak short - term support under the background of recession expectations, but long - term supply may be tight [4] - Nickel is expected to trade in a range, influenced by bearish fundamentals and bullish supply - side policy interventions [6] - Stainless steel is expected to follow nickel and trade in a range, with a generally weak fundamental situation [8] - Lead is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, affected by overseas inventory and recycled lead profit [10] - Tin's price is highly affected by global macro - liquidity. It has strong upward potential if liquidity is loose, but large downward space if liquidity tightens [14] - Industrial silicon's price is expected to fluctuate with cost in the short - term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long - term due to over - capacity [17] - Lithium carbonate's future price movement depends on factors such as the speed of warehouse receipt clearance and Zimbabwe's export policy, with the short - term market driven by macro factors [19] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated downward, mainly due to macro - geopolitical disturbances. The supply of scrap copper is tight, and the substitution demand for electrolytic copper is increasing, which may lead to further depletion of refined copper inventory. The report maintains a bullish view on copper in the medium - term and suggests paying attention to the support at 93,000 - 96,000 [1] Aluminum - Affected by the Iran crisis, some aluminum production capacity in the Middle East is affected. The external market is stronger than the domestic market, and the overall non - ferrous metals are under pressure. However, aluminum is expected to perform strongly in the metal sector due to supply damage and high energy dependence [1] Zinc - The medium - term supply of zinc ore is expected to be tight. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory has accumulated above 250,000 tons. The short - term support is weak under the background of recession expectations [4] Nickel - The short - term fundamental situation is weak, with domestic inventory accumulation and slight de - stocking in LME. With supply - side policy interventions, nickel prices are expected to trade in a range [6] Stainless Steel - The supply has decreased slightly, the demand is gradually recovering, and the cost has increased. The inventory has decreased slightly this week. It is expected to follow nickel and trade in a range [8] Lead - The primary lead production is resuming, while the recycled lead production is delayed. The terminal demand is weak, and the social inventory has decreased by nearly 10,000 tons this week. The lead price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [10] Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated downward, facing great pressure due to liquidity concerns. The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is highly affected by global macro - liquidity [14] Industrial Silicon - The supply and demand are close to balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate with cost. In the long - term, due to over - capacity, the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [17] Lithium Carbonate - In March, the de - stocking speed has slowed down, and the market is mainly driven by macro factors. The future price movement depends on factors such as the speed of warehouse receipt clearance and Zimbabwe's export policy [19]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Spot prices are stable, and futures fluctuate after a rally. The main contract rose 30 yuan/ton to 8,605 yuan/ton. The industry faces over - supply pressure, but cost provides support. It is expected to oscillate between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Suggest to wait and see and look for opportunities to go long at low prices [1]. Polysilicon - The market is oversupplied, and spot quotes continue to decline. Futures are weakly volatile with a slight rebound. There is still room for prices to fall. It is recommended to wait and see during the price - cut period [3]. Tin - Market risk preference is restored, and tin prices rebound. If the US - Iran conflict shows signs of ending, one can try to layout long positions [4]. Copper - Copper prices are in an adjustment phase, but the medium - long - term supply - demand contradiction remains unchanged. Short - term adjustment may provide opportunities for long - term long positions, but the price is still suppressed. Pay attention to the US - Iran conflict and peak - season inventory reduction [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices are under short - term pressure, but the medium - long - term supply - demand fundamentals are stable. The decline space is limited. Pay attention to zinc ore TC, demand marginal changes, and macro guidance [9]. Nickel - The macro - expectation eases slightly but is highly uncertain. The raw material contradiction supports the price, and the inventory is differentiated. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 130,000 - 142,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - The macro - sentiment suppression eases, raw materials are tight with strong cost support. Steel mills increase production, and demand recovers. It is expected to maintain a strong oscillation in the range of 14,000 - 14,600 [13]. Alumina - The market inventory reduction slows down, and the oversupply pattern persists. Adopt a short - term short - selling strategy. Wait for a clear supply contraction signal or policy - based production capacity regulation [16]. Aluminum - Short - term prices will fluctuate widely with macro - sentiment and geopolitical news. The main contract is expected to run between 23,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to inventory inflection points and the impact of the Middle - East situation on supply [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The macro - suppression eases, the fundamentals are resilient but the marginal driving force weakens. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 145,000 - 160,000 [17]. Aluminum Alloy - The cost of scrap aluminum supports the price, but demand improvement is slow. The market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the range of 22,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to demand improvement and the impact of the Middle - East situation on primary aluminum prices [18]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged on March 24. The basis of oxygen - permeable SI5530, SI4210, and Xinjiang decreased by 4.80%, 13.33%, and 3.87% respectively [1]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The main contract rose 0.35%. The spreads between different contracts showed various changes, such as the spread between the current month and the first - continued contract increased by 8.33% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: National and regional industrial silicon production,开工率, and related product production all decreased. The national industrial silicon production decreased by 26.58%, and the national 开工率 decreased by 21.33% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 0.72%, Yunnan decreased by 0.90%, and social inventory increased by 0.18% [1]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 decreased by 1.73%, and the N - type particle silicon price was stable. The N - type material basis decreased by 13.37% [3]. - **Futures Price and Inter - month Spread**: The main contract rose 0.83%. The spreads between different contracts had different changes, such as the spread between the current month and the first - continued contract decreased by 51.43% [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: Monthly polysilicon production decreased by 23.61%, imports increased by 54.97%, and exports increased by 20.51%. Weekly silicon wafer production decreased by 1.67% [3]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 3.64%, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 2.47% [3]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 0.66%, and the SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 13.19% [4]. - **Import - Export Ratio and Profit - Loss**: The import loss decreased by 13.93%, and the Shanghai - London ratio remained unchanged [4]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts changed significantly, such as the spread between 2604 - 2605 decreased by 234.29% [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: February tin ore imports decreased by 3.69%, SMM refined tin production decreased by 23.91%, and the average 开工率 of SMM refined tin decreased by 23.92% [4]. - **Inventory Change**: SHEF inventory decreased by 19.75%, and social inventory decreased by 17.82% [4]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 1.23%, and the premium decreased. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 219.32% [6]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts had different changes, such as the spread between 2604 - 2605 increased by 60 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: February electrolytic copper production decreased by 3.13%, imports decreased by 24.95%. The 开工率 of electrolytic copper rod and recycled copper rod increased [6]. - **Inventory Change**: Global visible inventory started to decline this week. Domestic social inventory decreased by 14.54%, and SHFE inventory decreased by 5.15% [6]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.84%, and the premium increased by 5 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 36.46 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts had small changes, such as the spread between 2604 - 2605 decreased by 5 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: February refined zinc production decreased by 9.99%, imports decreased by 81.26%, and exports increased by 91.58%. The 开工率 of related industries increased [9]. - **Inventory Change**: Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 7.47%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.06% [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 1.23%, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 4.58%. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 4 dollars/ton [11]. - **Cost of Electrowinning Nickel**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowinning nickel decreased by 0.69%, and the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte to produce electrowinning nickel increased by 11.34% [11]. - **New - energy Material Price**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.95%, and other prices remained stable [11]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts had different changes, such as the spread between 2604 - 2605 increased by 130 yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: Chinese refined nickel production decreased by 7.45%, and imports increased by 84.63%. SHFE inventory decreased by 0.03%, and social inventory increased by 1.10% [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel increased. The spot - futures price difference decreased by 38.32% [13]. - **Raw Material Price**: The price of Philippine laterite nickel ore and other raw materials remained stable, and the price of 304 scrap stainless steel increased by 2.03% [13]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts had different changes, such as the spread between 2604 - 2605 decreased by 15 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 44.07%, and Indonesian production decreased by 10.84%. Imports, exports, and net exports all changed significantly [13]. - **Inventory Change**: 300 - series social inventory decreased by 1.61%, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 4.64% [13]. Alumina - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.13%, and the premium increased. The price of alumina in different regions remained unchanged [16]. - **Import - Export Ratio and Profit - Loss**: The import loss of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 8.5 yuan/ton, and the import loss of alumina decreased by 53.8 yuan/ton [16]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts had different changes, such as the spread between AL 2604 - 2605 increased by 10 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: February alumina production decreased by 10.63%, and domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum production decreased. The 开工率 of related industries had different changes [16]. - **Inventory Change**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.83%, and aluminum rod social inventory decreased by 3.25% [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.68%, and the basis decreased by 114.17%. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate increased by 2.17% [17]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts had different changes, such as the spread between 2604 - 2605 increased by 680 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: February lithium carbonate production decreased by 15.13%, and demand decreased by 10.57%. The 开工率 decreased by 14.29% [17]. - **Inventory Change**: Lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 4.76%, and downstream inventory decreased by 5.01% [17]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable, and the price of Jiangxi Baotai Network ADC12 decreased by 0.42%. The price difference between Jiangxi Baotai Network ADC12 and A00 aluminum decreased by 36.11% [18]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts had different changes, such as the spread between 2604 - 2605 decreased by 65 yuan/ton [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: February recycled aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 41.31%, and primary aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 30.99%. The 开工率 of related industries decreased [18]. - **Inventory Change**: Recycled aluminum alloy social inventory decreased by 1.79%, and factory - area finished product inventory decreased by 8.11% [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - Pessimistic sentiment has eased, and base metals are expected to stop falling and fluctuate. The improvement in supply and demand is expected to support prices. The information released by Trump about the easing of the military conflict between the US and Iran has triggered short - covering, which helps to improve short - term panic. In the medium term, supply - side disturbance risks still support prices, and actual demand and supply - demand are expected to continue to improve. Base metals are expected to show a fluctuating trend [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **View**: Macro uncertainties increase, and copper prices fluctuate widely. The copper price is affected by high inventory in the short term, and the recent rebound of the US dollar index may lead to a fluctuating performance. In the medium term, it is expected to be in a fluctuating state [6]. - **Information Analysis**: On March 23, the spot premium of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was - 55 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton; the spot TC of 25% copper concentrate was - 67.2 US dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7 US dollars/dry ton [6]. - **Main Logic**: With the fermentation of the Middle East conflict, energy prices fluctuate sharply, increasing market concerns about macro uncertainties. The supply of copper ore is increasingly disturbed, the spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level and still falling, and the supply of scrap copper is also tight. The supply - side contraction expectation of refined copper is further strengthened. On the demand side, as the peak demand season approaches, the inventory of refined copper has started to decline, and the supply - demand of copper has improved marginally [6]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **View**: Supported by the ore policy expectation in Guinea, the alumina price remains strong. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [7]. - **Information Analysis**: On March 23, the national weighted index of alumina spot was 2772.4 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 yuan/ton; the alumina warehouse receipt was 406,877 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,274 tons [7]. - **Main Logic**: Recently, macro sentiment has magnified the fluctuations in the market. The Middle East geopolitical issue remains unresolved, and risk assets are generally under pressure. Fundamentally, the operating capacity of alumina fluctuates little, the balance between upstream and downstream has improved significantly but is still slightly in surplus, the warehouse receipt level is constantly increasing, and the spot quotation has risen slightly. The Middle East issue has continuously disturbed the electrolytic aluminum production, putting pressure on the demand for alumina, but the increase in freight and auxiliary material prices also brings the expectation of cost support. Recently, there have been new disturbances at the ore end, intensifying market concerns about resource stability, and the market price has run strongly in the short term [7]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **View**: Macro sentiment fluctuates, and aluminum prices fluctuate. In the short term, it is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations. In the medium term, the supply - demand is expected to tighten, and the center of aluminum prices is expected to continue to rise [8][9]. - **Information Analysis**: On March 23, the average spot price of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 23,502 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 612 yuan/ton; the spot premium was - 145 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 25 yuan/ton; the inventory of aluminum ingots in the main domestic consumption areas was 1356,000 tons, with no month - on - month change; the inventory of aluminum rods in the main domestic consumption areas was 353,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons; the electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 403,360 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 198 tons [8]. - **Main Logic**: Macroeconomically, the US economic data continues to show structural differentiation, and there is strong uncertainty in the Middle East geopolitical conflict. On the supply side, the domestic built - in production capacity remains stable, and the smelting profit remains high; the Middle East geopolitical conflict increases the disturbance of overseas aluminum supply, and Indonesia is restricted by electricity and other factors, so there are still constraints on the medium - term supply increase. On the demand side, the weekly initial - stage operating rate has slightly recovered, but the inhibitory effect of high prices on demand still exists, and the spot remains at a discount. In terms of inventory, the weekly social inventory has decreased, and the proportion of molten aluminum remains low. The subsequent demand performance and inventory changes need to be concerned [8][9]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **View**: The market follows the aluminum ingot, and the price fluctuates. In the short and medium term, it is expected to maintain a fluctuating and strong trend [10]. - **Information Analysis**: On March 23, the price of ADC12 was 23,800 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 300 yuan/ton; the average spot price of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 23,502 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 612 yuan/ton [10]. - **Main Logic**: On the cost side, the price of scrap aluminum follows the aluminum ingot, the quotation remains high, and the tight supply situation is difficult to change in the short term, with strong cost support. On the supply side, the operating rate continues to be low, and the tax refund policy and tax transfer may still restrict the supply in the medium term. On the demand side, the policy of replacing old cars with new ones continues to be implemented, but the subsidy intensity has declined. In the short term, high prices suppress downstream demand, and it is still mainly based on rigid - demand replenishment at low prices. In terms of inventory, the weekly social inventory has decreased [10]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **View**: The support of low TC is emerging, and zinc prices fluctuate. In the short term, it may stabilize in a fluctuating manner. Overall, it shows a fluctuating trend [11][12]. - **Information Analysis**: On March 23, the premium of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was - 5 yuan/ton, that of Guangdong 0 zinc to the main contract was - 20 yuan/ton, and that of Tianjin 0 zinc to the main contract was - 30 yuan/ton; as of March 23, the total inventory of zinc ingots in six places was 219,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,500 tons [11]. - **Main Logic**: Macroeconomically, against the background of the continuous military conflict between the US and Iran and the sharp rise in oil prices, in the short term, investors' concerns about economic slowdown have increased, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has faded again, with a pessimistic macro sentiment. On the supply side, the decline of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, the refinery profit has not improved significantly, but the import volume of zinc ore has increased marginally, and the output of zinc ingots has continued to rise. The export of previously locked - price zinc ingots has ended one after another, and the supply pressure of domestic zinc ingots has increased. On the demand side, domestic consumption is gradually entering the peak season, but the new orders at the terminal are limited, and the overall demand expectation is average. Overall, the short - term supply pressure of zinc ingots has increased, but there is still an expectation of inventory reduction during the consumption peak season, and zinc prices may stabilize in a fluctuating manner in the short term [11][12]. 3.1.6 Lead - **View**: The cost support is stable, and lead prices fluctuate [13][14]. - **Information Analysis**: On March 23, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,850 yuan/ton (a decrease of 25 yuan/ton), the price difference between primary and recycled lead was 0 yuan/ton (no change); the price of 1 lead ingot was 16,200 - 16,300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16,250 yuan/ton, no month - on - month change; the social inventory of lead ingots in the main domestic markets on March 16, 2026 was 63,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,500 tons; the latest warehouse receipt of Shanghai lead was 58,024 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 150 tons [11][13]. - **Main Logic**: In the spot market, the spot discount has widened, the price difference between primary and recycled lead ingots has remained stable, and the futures warehouse receipt has decreased. On the supply side, the price of waste batteries has decreased slightly, the lead price has remained stable, the loss of recycled lead smelting has narrowed slightly, smelters have resumed production one after another, and the weekly output of lead ingots has increased. On the demand side, at the initial stage of the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles, consumers are more wait - and - see, and the orders for electric bicycles have weakened slightly. However, as it gradually enters the traditional consumption peak season, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises will gradually recover [14]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **View**: The market fluctuates, and attention should be paid to changes on the supply side. It is expected to show a fluctuating and strong trend, and the follow - up progress of relevant policies in Indonesia needs to be continuously concerned [15][16]. - **Information Analysis**: On March 23, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt was 57,632 tons, a month - on - month increase of 942 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 282,792 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 720 tons; on March 23, the market price of high - nickel iron in China was 1,080 - 1,110 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), the same as on the 20th; on March 16, GEM stated in an interactive platform that in February 2026, an accident occurred in the temporary slag storage area of its Qingmeibang Park in Indonesia due to a landslide caused by heavy rain. The company has completed the rectification as required, and there is no issue of license revocation. This rectification only involves part of the HPAL production capacity of Qingmeibang, which has little impact on the overall operation of the company. The company is accelerating the completion and acceptance of the permanent slag storage, aiming to fully release the production capacity in the shortest time [15]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the domestic electrolytic nickel output decreased month - on - month in February, and the output of MIHP and ferronickel in Indonesia also decreased to a certain extent month - on - month in February. The overall supply - side pressure of nickel has slightly decreased, but the overall visible inventory still remains at a high level. The subsequent realization of peak - season demand needs to be focused on. In terms of policy disturbances, according to the news from Mysteel, Indonesia has revised down the nickel ore quota for 2026, which has significantly adjusted the market's expectation of the nickel balance. The follow - up changes in Indonesia's policy need to be continuously tracked [15][16]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **View**: The nickel iron price remains stable, and the stainless - steel market fluctuates. It is expected to show a fluctuating and strong trend, and the follow - up progress of relevant policies in Indonesia needs to be continuously concerned [17]. - **Information Analysis**: On March 23, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 41,725 tons, a month - on - month increase of 827 tons; in the spot market, on March 23, the spot premium of Foshan Hongwang 304 to the stainless - steel main contract was 315 yuan/ton; on March 23, the market price of high - nickel iron in China was 1,080 - 1,110 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), the same as on the 20th [17]. - **Main Logic**: The nickel iron price is strong, and the chromium end is stable. There is still a certain cost support for stainless steel. Due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday in February, the production schedule is expected to decline significantly month - on - month, but in March, the production schedule is expected to increase both year - on - year and month - on - month. The terminal demand still maintains a relatively cautious attitude. The subsequent realization of the peak season needs to be focused on. In terms of inventory, the current social inventory has slightly decreased, and the warehouse receipt is at a low level [17]. 3.1.9 Tin - **View**: The macro sentiment is weak, and tin prices fluctuate. It is expected to maintain a fluctuating operation [18][19]. - **Information Analysis**: On March 23, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 35 tons month - on - month to 8,920 tons; the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 508 tons month - on - month to 8,978 tons; the Shanghai tin position decreased by 2,298 lots month - on - month to 75,930 lots; in the spot market, on March 23, the average price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 1 tin ingot was 341,450 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12,150 yuan/ton [18]. - **Main Logic**: The supply problem of tin has been alleviated to some extent. Wa State is accelerating the resumption of production in high - grade tin mining areas in low - altitude areas, and it is expected that the ore output in Wa State will gradually increase; in Indonesia, according to the Indonesian Mining Association, the Indonesian Mineral and Coal General Administration has set the tin production target for 2026 at 65,860 tons, higher than the previously expected quota of 60,000 tons, and the supply expectation has become looser; the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still severe, and the supply risk remains high. In the future, although the supply - side problem of tin has been alleviated compared with before, the supply in the main production areas is still vulnerable. On the demand side, the rapid development of AI has driven the semiconductor industry to maintain high growth, but the global new photovoltaic installed capacity may not increase this year, and the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales may decline. However, other traditional fields such as tin - plated sheets and tin chemicals remain basically stable. Considering the inventory reconstruction in the industrial chain, it is expected that the demand for tin ingots will continue to grow. Overall, there are still supply risks, and with the resilience of downstream demand, it is expected that there will still be support at the bottom of tin prices. However, in the short term, it is suppressed by weak macro sentiment and the expectation of supply recovery, and the price will maintain a fluctuating operation [18][19]. 3.2行情监测 - No specific monitoring content provided in the text. 3.3中信期货商品指数（2026 - 03 - 23） - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2,531.78, a month - on - month increase of 0.33%; the commodity 20 index was 2,810.80, a month - on - month decrease of 0.34%; the industrial product index was 2,583.01, a month - on - month increase of 1.73% [147]. - **Plate Index**: The non - ferrous metal index on March 23, 2026 was 2,553.80, with a daily increase or decrease of - 0.91%, a five - day increase or decrease of - 5.41%, a one - month increase or decrease of - 4.36%, and a year - to - date increase or decrease of - 4.92% [149].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Short - term copper prices are in an adjustment phase, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction logic remains unchanged. The short - term adjustment may provide an opportunity for long - term long positions, but the price is still suppressed before the market risk preference significantly recovers. Pay attention to the changes in the US - Iran conflict and the de - stocking situation in the peak season, with the main focus on the pressure around 97,000 - 98,000 yuan/ton [1]. - Zinc: In the short term, zinc prices are under pressure due to supply improvement, high inventory, and limited macro - level positives. However, the medium - and long - term supply - demand fundamentals are generally stable, and the space for further significant decline may be limited. Pay attention to zinc ore TC, marginal changes in demand, and macro - level guidance, with the main focus on the support around 22,500 yuan/ton [4]. - Tin: The short - term tin price is expected to be weakly volatile. The long - term bullish logic for tin prices still exists, and the short - term adjustment may provide an opportunity for long - term long positions. Pay attention to the changes in the Middle East situation [6]. - Nickel: Macro - level sentiment suppresses the market, but the raw material end contradictions support the price. The inventory shows internal and external differentiation, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main reference range of 130,000 - 142,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Stainless Steel: Macro - level sentiment suppresses the non - ferrous sector, while the raw material end is tight and the cost support is strong. The steel mills increase production and the demand gradually recovers. The short - term is expected to maintain an oscillatory adjustment, with the main reference range of 13,800 - 14,500 yuan/ton [10]. - Lithium Carbonate: Currently, macro - level sentiment dominates, and the disk decline continues to expand. The real - world fundamentals of lithium carbonate have resilience, but the terminal data is weak and lacks further momentum. In the short term, the disk is expected to maintain a weakly wide - range adjustment, with the main reference range of 135,000 - 155,000 yuan/ton [14]. - Aluminum: In the short term, aluminum prices will maintain a wide - range oscillation with macro - level sentiment and geopolitical news. The long - term bullish logic still holds. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point and the impact of the Middle East situation on supply, with the main reference range of 23,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum [15]. - Aluminum Alloy: In the short term, the high raw material cost strongly supports the ADC12 price, but the demand follows up slowly, and the negative feedback effect of high prices gradually appears. The market is expected to continue the high - level oscillatory pattern, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton [17]. - Industrial Silicon: Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate around 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the impact of production control, environmental protection, and cost - end fluctuations [18]. - Polysilicon: Polysilicon is in a cycle of oversupply, and the price will continue to be under pressure. The price may fall towards the lowest cash cost, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [20]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 95,150 yuan/ton, down 3,375 yuan/ton or 3.41% compared to the previous value; the spot premium of 1 electrolytic copper in Guangdong is 80 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1424 million tons, down 31,300 tons or 3.13% month - on - month; the electrolytic copper import volume in December was 0.2602 million tons, down 0.0109 million tons or 4.02% month - on - month [1]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,820 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan/ton or 1.64% compared to the previous value; the import profit and loss is - 2,568 yuan/ton, up 205.36 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the refined zinc production was 0.5046 million tons, down 0.056 million tons or 9.99% month - on - month; the refined zinc import volume in December was 0.0088 million tons, down 0.0095 million tons or 51.94% month - on - month [4]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 353,400 yuan/ton, down 2,400 yuan/ton or 0.67% compared to the previous value; the spot premium of 1 tin is 2,250 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan/ton or 50% compared to the previous value [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the tin ore import volume was 17,144 tons, down 657 tons or 3.69% compared to the previous value; the SMM refined tin production was 11,490 tons, down 3,610 tons or 23.91% compared to the previous value [6]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 137,900 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan/ton or 2.22% compared to the previous value; the spot premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel is 6,550 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton or 2.96% compared to the previous value [8]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The Chinese refined nickel production is 32,600 tons, down 2,625 tons or 7.45% month - on - month; the refined nickel import volume is 23,394 tons, up 10,723 tons or 84.63% month - on - month [8]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 14,350 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton or 0.70% compared to the previous value; the futures - spot price difference is 455 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton or 19.47% compared to the previous value [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 companies) is 1.9008 million tons, up 0.5814 million tons or 44.07% month - on - month; the production of Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (Qinglong) is 0.37 million tons, down 0.045 million tons or 10.84% month - on - month [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 149,000 yuan/ton, down 3,500 yuan/ton or 2.30% compared to the previous value; the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 146,000 yuan/ton, down 3,500 yuan/ton or 2.34% compared to the previous value [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the lithium carbonate production was 83,090 tons, down 14,810 tons or 15.13% month - on - month; the lithium carbonate demand was 111,503 tons, down 13,180 tons or 10.57% month - on - month [14]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 24,070 yuan/ton, down 420 yuan/ton or 1.71% compared to the previous value; the electrolytic aluminum import profit and loss is - 3,676 yuan/ton, up 396.1 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the alumina production was 6.6002 million tons, down 0.785 million tons or 10.63% month - on - month; the domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 3.46 million tons, down 0.339 million tons or 8.91% month - on - month [15]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 24,700 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton or 1.20% compared to the previous value; the price difference between Jiangxi Baotai Network ADC12 and A00 aluminum is 30 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton or 133.33% compared to the previous value [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.358 million tons, down 0.252 million tons or 41.31% month - on - month; the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.2093 million tons, down 0.094 million tons or 30.99% month - on - month [17]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon is 9,100 yuan/ton, unchanged compared to the previous value; the basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) is 645 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton or 20.86% compared to the previous value [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon production is 275,700 tons, down 99,800 tons or 26.58% compared to the previous value; the national industrial silicon production start - up rate is 38.02%, down 10.31 percentage points or 21.33% compared to the previous value [18]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re - feeding material is 43,500 yuan/kg, down 250 yuan/kg or 0.57% compared to the previous value; the N - type material basis (average price) is 5,735 yuan/ton, up 535 yuan/ton or 10.29% compared to the previous value [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: The polysilicon production is 77,000 tons, down 23,800 tons or 23.61% compared to the previous value; the polysilicon import volume is 0.16 million tons, up 0.06 million tons or 54.97% compared to the previous value [20].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices fluctuated and declined this week, mainly due to significant macro - geopolitical disturbances. The report maintains a bullish view on copper in the medium - term, suggesting it can be bought and held, and next week, attention should be paid to the support around 93,000 - 96,000 RMB [1] - Aluminum supply is damaged and it has a high energy dependence, so it is expected to perform strongly in the metal sector, despite the overall weakness of non - ferrous metals under the Fed's interest rate hike expectation [1] - Zinc's domestic fundamentals are average. In the short - term, under the background of trading recession expectations, its support is weak, but in the long - term, capital expenditure is limited and there are supply disturbances from Iran [3] - Nickel prices are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations under the condition of bearish fundamentals and bullish supply - side policy intervention [5] - Stainless steel is expected to follow nickel prices and maintain range - bound oscillations under the condition of bearish fundamentals and bullish supply - side policy intervention [7] - Lead prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation under the influence of overseas inventory drag and recycled profit support [9] - Tin prices are greatly affected by global macro - liquidity. If liquidity is loose, tin has strong upward elasticity; if liquidity tightens due to the US - Iran conflict, tin prices may have a large callback space [13] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate with costs in the short - term, and in the long - term, they are expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom based on seasonal marginal costs [17] - For lithium carbonate, in the short - term, the de - stocking in March slows down marginally, and the disk is mainly driven by the macro. The upward breakthrough needs futures - spot resonance or unexpected supply disturbances, and the downward breakthrough requires demand collapse or unexpected resumption of production by CATL [19] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated and declined due to macro - geopolitical disturbances. Overseas, there are concerns about China's consumption ability. In the domestic scrap copper market, the resumption of production of recycled copper processing enterprises is slow, and the supply of scrap copper is tight, which may promote the further depletion of refined copper inventory [1] Aluminum - Affected by the Iran crisis, some aluminum plants in the Middle East have reduced production. The external market is stronger than the domestic market, and the long - short spread between the internal and external markets is at a high level. Under the Fed's interest rate hike expectation, aluminum prices have weakened, but it is expected to perform strongly in the metal sector due to supply damage and high energy dependence [1] Zinc - In the supply side, the medium - term supply of zinc ore is expected to be tight, and the domestic and imported TC are at a low level. The resumption of production of northern mines in spring is expected to drive a rebound. In the demand side, downstream enterprises have resumed production, but orders are weak, and the overall inventory has accumulated to over 250,000 tons [3] Nickel - In the supply side, the output of pure nickel in February decreased. In the demand side, it is mainly for rigid demand, and the premium of Jinchuan and Russian nickel is weak. In the inventory side, domestic inventory has been accumulating, and LME inventory has decreased slightly. Under the influence of supply - side policy intervention, nickel prices are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations [5] Stainless Steel - In the supply side, the steel mill's production plan has decreased slightly. In the demand side, downstream enterprises are gradually recovering. In the cost side, the price of nickel iron and ferrochrome has increased. In the inventory side, the inventory has decreased slightly this week. It is expected to follow nickel prices and maintain range - bound oscillations [7] Lead - In the supply side, primary lead production has sufficient profits and is resuming production, while recycled lead production is delayed due to losses. In the demand side, the battery production rate has recovered, and the inventory of dealers' battery products has decreased. The spot social inventory has decreased by nearly 10,000 tons this week, and lead prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation [9] Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated and declined, under great pressure due to liquidity risks. In the supply side, the export volume of Wa State has recovered rapidly, and the domestic processing fee has a slight upward trend. There are also supply - side disturbance risks. In the demand side, rigid demand is strong, and the willingness to replenish inventory is high after the price decline. The price is greatly affected by global macro - liquidity [13] Industrial Silicon - Some factories in Inner Mongolia have increased production, and some factories in Gansu have reduced production for maintenance. The supply and demand are close to a balanced state, and the price is expected to oscillate with costs. In the long - term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still high, and the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [17] Lithium Carbonate - In March, the de - stocking marginally slows down, and the disk is mainly driven by the macro. The upward breakthrough needs futures - spot resonance or unexpected supply disturbances, and the downward breakthrough requires demand collapse or unexpected resumption of production by CATL [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices both in China and abroad first declined and then rose. The LME copper price dropped to a minimum of $11,754 per ton, and the import window for domestic refined copper opened. Geopolitical factors, especially the US - Iran conflict, and inflation uncertainty due to the Middle - East war are major concerns. The short - term support level for copper prices is in the range of RMB 90,000 - 100,000 per ton. If inventory accumulation weakens and the spot discount narrows, one can try to go long with a small position; otherwise, if the geopolitical conflict expands, continue to observe [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a weakening trend. Guinea plans to tighten ore supply, and the blockage in the strait has led to the resale of overseas alumina raw materials. The LME is at risk of a short squeeze, resulting in a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets. The domestic market may follow the upward trend as aluminum rods start to destock [1][2]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel price fell by 0.55%, while the Shanghai nickel price rose by 0.95%. Due to the tight supply of nickel ore and rising shipping costs, the nickel ore price is strengthening. The demand for stainless steel is showing some changes, and the production of ternary materials is expected to increase. One can refer to the cost - line for short - term long opportunities, but also need to pay attention to overseas geopolitical and market sentiment, as well as the expected quota supplement in July and the high inventory pressure of primary nickel [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: After the Fed's interest - rate meeting, central banks in Europe, the UK, and Japan kept their policies unchanged, expressing concerns about inflation uncertainty caused by the Middle - East war. Geopolitical focus is on the US - Iran conflict. In China, the central bank aims to maintain the stability of financial markets. LME copper inventory increased by 1,325 tons to 335,425 tons, Comex inventory increased by 115 tons to 534,159 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 12,244 tons to 306,380 tons, and BC copper decreased by 726 tons to 15,144 tons [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, AO2605 of alumina closed at RMB 3,008 per ton, a 2.21% decline, with a position reduction of 8,099 lots to 260,000 lots. AL2605 of Shanghai aluminum closed at RMB 23,930 per ton, a 2.53% decline, with a position reduction of 7,321 lots to 285,000 lots. The main contract AD2604 of aluminum alloy closed at RMB 22,750 per ton, a 2.34% decline, with a position reduction of 161 lots to 4,914 lots. The SMM alumina price rebounded to RMB 2,736 per ton, and the aluminum ingot spot discount narrowed to RMB 190 per ton [1]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel price fell by 0.55% to $17,065 per ton, and the Shanghai nickel price rose by 0.95% to RMB 134,050 per ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 180 tons to 283,770 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 295 tons to 56,899 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month premium remained negative, and the import nickel premium remained at a discount of RMB 150 per ton [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On March 19, 2026, the price of flat - copper was RMB 95,605 per ton with a premium of - RMB 40, down RMB 3,375 from the previous day, and the premium increased by RMB 60. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong was RMB 86,500 per ton, down RMB 3,200. The refined - scrap price difference in Guangdong was RMB 3,115, down RMB 46. LME registered + cancelled inventory remained unchanged at 334,100 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 12,244 tons to 306,380 tons, and the total inventory increased by 8,313 tons to 433,458 tons. COMEX inventory increased by 284 tons to 534,039 tons, and the social inventory of domestic + bonded area decreased by 0.8 million tons to 63.8 million tons [4]. - **Aluminum**: On March 19, 2026, the Wuxi and Nanhai quotes were both RMB 24,490 per ton, down RMB 30. The spot premium was - RMB 190 per ton, up RMB 10. LME registered + cancelled inventory remained unchanged at 436,625 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1,020 tons to 393,226 tons, and the total inventory increased by 21,927 tons to 416,425 tons. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.2 million tons to 132.6 million tons, and the alumina social inventory increased by 4.0 million tons to 35.8 million tons [5]. - **Nickel**: On March 19, 2026, the price of Jinchuan nickel plates was RMB 138,300 per ton, down RMB 3,050. The LME registered + cancelled inventory remained unchanged at 283,950 tons, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 295 tons to 56,899 tons, and the nickel inventory increased by 1,912 tons to 63,681 tons. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons to 45,451 tons, and the social inventory of nickel increased by 2,953 tons to 87,490 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: On March 19, 2026, the main settlement price was RMB 22,925 per ton, down 2.2%. The LmeS3 price was $2,505.5 per ton, unchanged. The SMM 0 and 1 spot prices were RMB 22,820 and RMB 22,750 per ton respectively, down RMB 380. The domestic and imported zinc spot premiums remained unchanged. The LME0 - 3 premium was $2.5 per ton, down $1.75. The weekly TC of Zn50% domestic remained at RMB 3,850 per metal ton, and the imported one remained at $240 per dry ton. The SHFE weekly inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, the LME inventory remained unchanged at 118,025 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.72 million tons to 22.9 million tons [7]. - **Tin**: On March 19, 2026, the main settlement price was RMB 354,000 per ton, down 4.4%. The LmeS3 price was $27,540 per ton, down 2.1%. The SMM spot price was RMB 355,800 per ton, down RMB 13,700. The 60% and 40% tin - concentrate prices increased by RMB 9,800. The domestic spot premium average was RMB 2,400 per ton, down RMB 350. The LME0 - 3 premium was - $213 per ton, down $10. The SHFE weekly inventory increased by 851 tons to 12,514 tons, the LME inventory remained unchanged at 8,965 tons [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [9][11][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first - and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [13][19][20]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [27][29][31]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless - steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [33][35][38]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2026 [39][41][43]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, and a medium - level gold investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won the "Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Award" from Futures Daily & Securities Times for four consecutive sessions [46]. - **Wang Heng**: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research. He has won relevant awards in the industry and provides services such as market and policy interpretation and risk management for clients [46]. - **Zhu Xi**: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, serves many leading new - energy enterprises, and provides in - depth reports and market interpretations [47].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the global electrolytic aluminum industry, focusing on cost structures and trends in production costs across different regions and companies. Core Insights and Arguments - **Cost Composition**: The cost of producing one ton of electrolytic aluminum consists of approximately 80% raw material costs, with the remaining 20% attributed to depreciation, labor, and transportation. The main components include 1.92 tons of alumina, 13,300 kWh of electricity, and 0.465 tons of prebaked anodes. Electricity costs are a significant factor, accounting for 36% of total costs for Chinese companies and up to 40% for overseas firms [3][4]. - **Energy Consumption**: China's energy consumption for electrolytic aluminum production is 13,300 kWh/ton, which is lower than the global average of 14,100 kWh/ton. This efficiency is attributed to technological upgrades [3][4]. - **Electricity Prices**: The average electricity price in China is approximately $0.076 per kWh, significantly lower than prices in the US ($0.188), Germany ($0.40), and Australia ($0.273). This price advantage is expected to become more pronounced in regions like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia by 2025 [3][4]. - **Cost Increase Projections**: By 2025, global electrolytic aluminum costs are projected to rise by 1,000 to 2,000 RMB/ton, with the first quartile cost (12,000-13,000 RMB/ton) dominated by companies in the Middle East and Xinjiang, such as Tianshan Aluminum and Shenhuo Co. [1][5]. - **Cost Quartiles**: The cost distribution for electrolytic aluminum production by 2025 is as follows: - **First Quartile (Top 25%)**: Companies like Emirates Global Aluminum with costs around 13,000 RMB/ton. - **Second Quartile (25%-50%)**: Includes Vedanta and China Hongqiao, with costs between 13,000-15,000 RMB/ton. - **Third Quartile (50%-75%)**: Companies like Rusal and Yun Aluminum, with costs around 15,000-16,000 RMB/ton. - **Fourth Quartile (Bottom 25%)**: Includes Alcoa and Rio Tinto, with costs reaching 21,000 RMB/ton [5][6]. - **Impact of Oil Prices**: Fluctuations in oil prices directly affect the cost of electrolytic aluminum production. An increase of $20 per barrel in oil prices can raise electricity costs by approximately 2,500 RMB/ton for oil-dependent production facilities [8][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical and Supply Chain Risks**: Geopolitical tensions and a shift towards de-globalization are disrupting the global supply chain for raw materials, which is contributing to rising production costs [6][7]. - **New Capacity Developments**: New production capacities are primarily located on the right side of the cost curve, with projects in Indonesia having electricity prices between 0.45-0.6 RMB/kWh, which places them in the higher cost quartiles [2][7]. - **Profit Margins**: Domestic Chinese electrolytic aluminum companies benefit from stable and low electricity costs, leading to significant profit margins compared to higher-cost global competitors, with price differentials reaching up to 6,000 RMB/ton [7]. - **Market Dynamics**: The current market dynamics suggest that the cost structure is becoming more supportive of aluminum prices, particularly for high-cost producers, which may lead to adjustments in supply and potential production cuts [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - economic outlook is negative, with the joint US - Israel strike on Iran reducing Middle East crude oil supply and pushing up oil prices, leading to inflation risks. The Fed's interest rate decision is hawkish. Basic metals are experiencing panic selling, with prices expected to be under pressure in the short term. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the duration of the US - Iran conflict and oil price trends [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: Macro - risk aversion has increased, causing copper prices to drop significantly. The Fed's stance is hawkish, and the US dollar index has risen, pressuring copper prices. Copper supply is tight, and demand is improving. In the short term, copper prices are expected to be volatile [6][7]. - **Alumina**: The non - ferrous sector has seen a collective sell - off, and alumina prices have fallen from high levels. The market is in a state of slight surplus, but cost support exists. It is expected to have wide - range volatility [7]. - **Aluminum**: With a pessimistic macro outlook, aluminum prices have declined. Supply and demand are in a state of balance, and in the short term, prices are expected to remain high and volatile. In the medium term, the price center may rise [8][10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price has declined following the aluminum ingot. Cost support is strong, and supply and demand are stable. It is expected to be slightly bullish in the short and medium terms [17]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventories have increased significantly, and zinc prices are declining. In the short term, prices may remain high and volatile, and in the long term, there is a risk of decline [13][14]. - **Lead**: The non - ferrous sector sentiment is weak, and lead prices are declining. Supply and demand are in a state of balance, and prices are expected to be volatile [16][19]. - **Nickel**: The non - ferrous sector has corrected, and nickel prices have fallen. Supply pressure has slightly decreased, but inventories are high. It is expected to be slightly bullish, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies [20][21]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market has corrected following the decline in nickel prices. Cost support exists, and production is expected to increase. It is expected to be slightly bullish, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies [22][23]. - **Tin**: Market sentiment has weakened, and tin prices have dropped significantly. Supply is expected to increase, but demand is also growing. Prices are expected to be volatile [23]. 3.2行情监测 - **Commodity Index**: On March 19, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2569.19, down 0.50%; the commodity 20 index was 2885.41, down 1.06%; the industrial products index was 2567.44, up 0.39% [150]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Index**: On March 19, 2026, the index was 2616.34, with a daily decline of 2.17%, a 5 - day decline of 3.56%, a 1 - month decline of 2.91%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.59% [152].

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