南华期货LPG产业周报 ——下游检修预期增加，盘面估值回落 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428） 研究助理：沈玮玮（期货从业证书：F03140197 ） 联系邮箱：shenweiwei@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月14日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响LPG价格走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1）成本端原油一方面受到供应过剩的压力，另一方面又受到地缘问题扰动，本周整体在基本面压力下震荡走 弱，但整体还在震荡区间内。 2）海外整体偏坚挺，美国需求回升，库存降低；中东发运依然处于偏低位。FEI升贴水37.25美元，CP升贴 水42美元。 3）内盘基本面小幅走弱。供应端到港量本周小幅增加，港口库存积累；化工需求端，PDH本周在巨正源及滨 华复产推动下开工上行，但市场网传了一些检修计划，叠加目前的亏损状态，需求预期走弱。 4）仓单量本周小幅增加，截至目前仓单量5476张，较上周增加865张。 我们认为PG大多时候跟随外盘丙烷及原油波动，但本周外盘相对持稳，原油端偏弱但整体仍在低位的震荡区 间，周尾的下跌更多还是受到内盘自身的影响。一 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-12-03 市场驱动有限，盘面维持震荡运行 市场分析 策略 单边：中性，短期观望为主 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 油价波动、宏观政策、关税政策、港口装船延迟、炼厂装置检修超预期等。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 1、\t12月2日地区价格：山东市场，4410-4500；东北市场，4000-4150；华北市场，4250-4470；华东市场，4220-4470； 沿江市场，4600-4980；西北市场，4350-4480；华南市场，4400-4600。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2026年1月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷580美元/吨，跌13美元/吨，丁烷570美元/吨，跌13美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4520元/吨，跌99元/吨，丁烷4442元/吨，跌99元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年1月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷573美元/吨，跌13美元/吨，丁烷563美元/吨，跌13美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4466元/吨，跌99元/吨，丁烷4388元/吨，跌99元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-12-02 CP价格上调，现货端受到提振 市场分析 1、\t12月1日地区价格：山东市场，4400-4500；东北市场，4000-4150；华北市场，4250-4470；华东市场，4220-4450； 沿江市场，4600-4950；西北市场，4350-4400；华南市场，4350-4500。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、2025年1月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷593美元/吨，涨3美元/吨，丁烷583美元/吨，涨13美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4619元/吨，涨21元/吨，丁烷4541元/吨，涨99元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年1月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷586美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，丁烷576美元/吨，涨12美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4565元/吨，涨14元/吨，丁烷4487元/吨，涨92元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 沙特阿美公司12月CP公布，丙、丁烷均较11月上调。丙烷为495美元/吨，较上月涨20美元/吨，丁烷为485美元/吨， 较上月涨25美元/吨。现货方面，受到CP消息提振，昨日多地现货价格上涨，下游多按需采购，卖方库存尚可。供 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to the temporary supply - demand mismatch, the LPG market shows a tight fundamental situation and is oscillating strongly. However, in the medium - term, the supply elasticity of LPG is greater than the demand elasticity. Without large - scale supply disruptions, the supply will be abundant. The supply from the US and the Middle East is expected to grow, while the demand growth in Asia - Pacific countries is restricted by the weak profit of downstream devices. Overall, the global LPG market may continue the oversupply pattern in 2026, but geopolitical conflicts and weather may cause temporary supply - demand mismatches [6][127]. - Based on the decline of the oil price center and the expected oversupply of global LPG, there will be resistance to the upward movement of LPG prices in 2026. After the short - term strong oscillation caused by supply - demand mismatch, opportunities for shorting on rallies can be considered, and the registration of new warehouse receipts after the price rebound on the futures market should be monitored. Recently, the strong cracking spread of naphtha has made LPG more cost - effective, driving the substitution demand of some cracking devices. But if the Russia - Ukraine situation eases and sanctions are relaxed, the supply of Russian naphtha may increase, which could suppress the naphtha cracking spread and have an indirect negative impact on LPG valuation [7][128]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Supply - demand Imbalance in the Oil Market and Resistance to Oil Prices - In 2025, international oil prices were in a wide - range oscillating and declining trend. Taking Brent as a reference, the price center has moved down compared to last year. As of November 25, 2025, the average price of the Brent futures main contract was $68.87 per barrel, a 13.76% decrease from the average price in 2024 [14]. - In 2026, the oil market is expected to face downward pressure. The growth elasticity of oil demand has significantly decreased and cannot offset the release of surplus supply capacity. China's oil demand growth has slowed down, and the global oil consumption has entered a stage of low - growth. Although the supply growth rate will slow down next year, it is still expected to exceed demand, leading to an increase in global oil inventories [15]. 3.2 Weak Oscillation in the 2025 LPG Market and Tariff Disturbances - In 2025, the LPG market was in a weak oscillating pattern. The price center moved down due to the decline in oil prices. The Sino - US tariff conflict caused additional disturbances, mainly resulting in regional price differences rather than global trends [29]. - In Q1 2025, the LPG market was oscillating. Although there were some disturbances such as Middle - East device maintenance and US shipping delays, the impact was limited. The downstream demand in the Asia - Pacific region was weak, and there was no obvious supply shortage [29]. - In Q2 2025, the Sino - US tariff conflict led to a significant change in the trade pattern. China reduced its procurement from the US and turned to the Middle East. The supply - demand imbalance between the US and non - US sources supported the CP price and caused the FEI price to drop. After the tariff was reduced, the domestic market still had a wait - and - see attitude. The Middle - East geopolitical conflict in June also had a short - term impact on the LPG market [30]. - In Q3 2025, the LPG market was relatively stable, and the supply - demand imbalance continued [31]. - In Q4 2025, the Sino - US tariff issue resurfaced, but the impact on the market was smaller than in April. The supply in the Middle East decreased due to refinery maintenance, and the demand in India and Southeast Asia increased during the peak season, which supported the LPG price. However, the weak profit of domestic downstream chemical industries limited the upward movement of the domestic market [32]. 3.3 Continued Oversupply of Global LPG in 2026 and the Reshaping of Trade Flows 3.3.1 Growth in Middle - East LPG Supply - OPEC has gradually withdrawn from the production - cut agreement, and the LPG supply in the Middle East is expected to grow. Although the actual production increase may be different from the quota increase, the overall trend is upward. The UAE is promoting natural - gas field development projects, which will contribute to the growth of NGL supply. In 2026, the LPG supply in the Middle East is expected to increase year - on - year [47]. - In the short - term, the supply in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait has tightened due to refinery maintenance, but it is expected to return to the growth track after the maintenance is completed. Saudi Arabia will face more competition from the US, which may suppress the CP pricing in the medium - term. The US sanctions on Iran have increased, but the LPG supply in Iran has not been significantly affected [48][49]. 3.3.2 Growth in US LPG Supply - The production of NGL and LPG in the US has continued to grow in recent years. In 2025, the LPG export volume increased, and the export capacity has been improved through terminal expansion projects. Although there was a potential device failure in December 2025, it is not expected to affect the long - term supply trend [66]. - In 2026, the growth trend of US shale - gas production is expected to continue, and the production of NGL and LPG is also expected to increase. The expansion of export terminals will further enhance the export capacity [67]. 3.3.3 Reshaping of LPG Trade Flows - After the Sino - US tariff conflict in April 2025, China reduced its imports from the US and increased imports from the Middle East. Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea, and India increased their imports from the US. India signed a long - term LPG procurement agreement with the US, which will affect the CP and FEI pricing [85][86]. 3.3.4 Increase in Russian LPG Supply to China - In recent years, China's imports of LPG from Russia have been increasing. From January to November 2025, the import volume exceeded 700,000 tons, a 63.8% increase compared to the previous year. Although the absolute volume is limited by transportation bottlenecks, it has become an important marginal increment, especially for the Northeast region [102]. 3.3.5 Constraints on the Growth of China's LPG Demand - China's LPG demand has been growing, mainly driven by the commissioning of downstream chemical devices (mainly PDH). In 2026, about 3.75 million tons/year of propane dehydrogenation capacity is planned to be put into operation, which may contribute about 2.8 million tons of propane demand. However, the weak profit of the PDH industry has restricted the start - up of existing devices and the commissioning of new ones, so the actual demand growth may be lower than expected [105]. - Other devices such as ethylene - cracking also have potential for growth, but the low profit restricts the endogenous demand growth. The demand for LPG in the combustion sector lacks growth potential, and the demand growth in 2026 will still be mainly driven by the chemical downstream, with profit being the main limiting factor [107].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current core contradictions affecting the LPG price trend include cost - end oil price pressure from supply surplus and geopolitical issues, with a recent downward shift in the price center; the release of the CP November contract price with a decline; a slight inventory reduction of US C3 but still at a historical high; and relatively stable domestic fundamentals with a slight increase in supply and strong chemical demand [3]. - The short - term domestic fundamentals are neutral to positive, with low expected arrivals and high seasonal开工 of PDH and MTBE [3]. - Negative factors include the downward shift of the oil price center and relatively high domestic valuation [4]. Summary by Directory LPG Price and Volatility - The monthly price range prediction of LPG is 4000 - 4500, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 14.05%, and the historical percentage of the current volatility in 3 years is 4.00% [2]. LPG Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - When inventory is high and worried about price decline, for a long spot position, it is recommended to short PG2601 futures with a 25% hedging ratio in the range of 4300 - 4400 to lock in profits; also, sell PG2601C4400 call options with a 25% ratio in the range of 60 - 70 to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [2]. Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and based on order - based procurement, for a short spot position, it is recommended to buy PG2601 futures with a 25% hedging ratio in the range of 4000 - 4100 to lock in procurement costs; also, sell PG2601P4000 put options with a 25% ratio in the range of 30 - 50 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the PG price falls [2]. Industry Data - A large amount of data on prices, spreads, monthly spreads, ratios, and profits of various LPG - related products are presented, including daily and weekly changes [7]. Price Seasonality - Seasonal charts of various prices such as MB M1, NWE C3 M1, FEI, CP, LPG futures, and LPG cheapest delivery products are provided [9][10][11]. Spread Seasonality - Seasonal charts of spreads like FEI - MOPJ M1, PG - FEI, PG - CP, etc. are shown [17][19][20]. Monthly Spread Seasonality - Seasonal charts of monthly spreads such as LPG01 - 02, LPG12 - 01, FEI M1 - M2, etc. are presented [33][34][28]. Ratio Seasonality - Seasonal charts of ratios such as FEI/Brent, MB/WTI, FEI/MOPJ M1, etc. are provided [37][39]. Profit Seasonality - Seasonal charts of profits including LPG import profit - FEI, LPG import profit - CP, PDH profit, and various spot profits are shown [44][45][46]. Freight Seasonality - Seasonal charts of freight from the Middle East to the Far East, the US to Europe, and the US Gulf to the Far East are presented [62][63]. Other Seasonality - A seasonal chart of the water level of the Panama Canal - Gatun Lake is provided [66].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall economic outlook is mixed, with most Fed districts reporting flat economic activity, some facing a risk of slowdown, and others showing slight growth or decline [8]. - The steel and ore market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and bearish in the medium - to long - term [11][13]. - The bond market is likely to continue wide - range fluctuations [11]. - In the agricultural sector, different products have different trends, such as cotton in low - level oscillations, sugar under supply pressure, and eggs with high inventory and limited upside potential [26][28][29]. - In the energy and chemical industry, oil prices are in a long - term downward trend, and various products' prices follow different factors such as geopolitical events and supply - demand relationships [37]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - information - China and the EU discussed semiconductor and other economic and trade issues, aiming to restore the semiconductor supply chain [6]. - Vanke faced a "double - kill" in stocks and bonds, and a bond展期 meeting will be held [6]. - Six departments issued a plan to boost consumer goods consumption, targeting specific consumption areas by 2027 [6]. - The Chinese non - ferrous metals association opposed zero or negative processing fees in copper smelting and managed copper smelting capacity [7]. - Treasury companies that hoarded cryptocurrencies suffered a "double - kill" in stock and coin prices [7]. - NVIDIA denied accounting fraud accusations [7]. - The Fed's economic activity was mostly flat, with some areas showing decline or growth, and the risk of slowdown increased [8]. - US economic data showed mixed results, including changes in jobless claims, durable goods orders [8][9]. - Japan's central bank may raise interest rates [8]. Macro - finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt a volatile mindset and temporarily hold off on trading. The A - share market had mixed performance, with military stocks falling and some concepts rising. Vanke's situation affected the market [10]. Treasury Futures - The bond market is likely to continue wide - range fluctuations. Although there were sharp fluctuations, the short - term nature was high, considering factors like capital and fundamentals [11]. Steel and Ore - Short - term: expected to be volatile; Medium - to long - term: bearish. Demand for building materials is weak, while demand for some plate products is okay. Supply may decline, and inventory is relatively high. Valuation shows that steel prices are likely to be weak [11][12][13]. Agriculture Cotton - Under the influence of large supply pressure and weak demand, it is in low - level oscillations, with high costs providing some support [26]. Sugar - Facing supply pressure, the price is under downward pressure, but cost provides a limit. It is recommended to wait and see [28]. Eggs - The near - month futures contracts are under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rebounds with caution. High inventory and weak consumption are the main factors, but there are positive expectations for the long - term [29][30]. Apples - Expected to be slightly bullish. The acquisition season has ended, and the market is now in the outbound stage. Prices are stable, and inventory and consumption need attention [31]. Corn - Pay attention to the upper pressure on the futures price. The current rise is due to "supply - demand mismatch," and there may be a correction in the spot price [33]. Red Dates - Temporarily wait and see. The prices in production and sales areas are stable, and the futures price is weak [34]. Pigs - In the short - term, supply pressure increases, and the price is weak. In the long - term, the decline in the number of sows is positive for prices [35]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - In a long - term downward trend, it is advisable to short on rallies. Geopolitical events and supply - demand expectations affect the price [37]. Fuel Oil - The price fluctuates with the oil price. Supply is loose, and demand is flat. Geopolitical and macro factors are the main drivers [39]. Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to be weak and volatile due to large supply and weak demand, but production losses may provide some support [40]. Rubber - The price difference between ru and nr may widen. Pay attention to Southeast Asian weather and raw material supply [41]. Synthetic Rubber - The short - term price is weak. It is advisable to hold short - call strategies or short on rallies [42]. Methanol - Near - month contracts: temporarily weak and volatile; Far - month contracts: turn to a volatile trend. Pay attention to inventory and import arrivals [43][44]. Caustic Soda - Keep a volatile mindset. The spot price is weakening, and the futures price is controlled by bears [45]. Asphalt - The price fluctuation is expected to increase. Pay attention to the price bottom after the winter storage game [46]. Polyester Industry Chain - The price is adjusting strongly due to improved sentiment and supply - demand structure. Different products in the chain have different supply - demand situations [47]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The short - term bullish factors are fully realized, and the price may turn weak. It is affected by supply, demand, and oil price trends [48]. Paper Pulp - Enter a range - bound stage. It is advisable to wait and see. The fundamentals are stable, and supply and demand are in a weak balance [49][50]. Logs - The fundamentals are weakly bearish. The spot price is under pressure, and the market is expected to be in a weak supply - demand balance [51]. Urea - The spot price may be bullish, and the futures market may have short - term emotional trading. Keep a wide - range volatile mindset [52]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - Hold short positions at high levels. The domestic inventory is decreasing, and the price is affected by macro and inventory factors [18]. Lead - Hold short positions cautiously. The price is falling, and the inventory is decreasing. Import and export data show certain trends [19][20][21]. Lithium Carbonate - In wide - range fluctuations. The short - term is affected by the game between weak fundamentals and long - term optimistic expectations [22]. Industrial Silicon - Continue to oscillate. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the adjustment space is limited [23]. Polysilicon - Continue to oscillate. Buy on dips. The supply - demand contradiction is weaker than the policy expectation contradiction [24].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - UGI Corporation achieved record-adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.32, exceeding the revised guidance range of $3.00 to $3.15, representing a $0.26 increase from the prior year [4][17] - The company generated approximately $530 million in free cash flow and returned about $320 million to shareholders through dividends [4][22] - The leverage ratio for UGI Corporation was reported at 3.9 times, while AmeriGas stood at 4.9 times, reflecting disciplined debt reduction and improved performance [22][26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - AmeriGas reported EBIT of $166 million, a 17% increase year-over-year, driven by operational momentum and tax benefits [17][22] - The regulated utilities segment achieved record EBIT of $403 million, up $3 million from the previous year, with a total margin increase of $39 million due to a 10% rise in core market volumes [18] - The midstream and marketing segment's EBIT decreased by $20 million to $293 million, primarily due to lower margins and reduced income from equity method investments [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - UGI International's EBIT declined by $9 million to $314 million, impacted by reduced margins and lower realized gains on foreign currency exchange [19][21] - LPG volumes decreased by 4% due to structural conservation and customer conversions from LPG to natural gas, although colder weather partially offset this decline [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on transforming its culture and operational discipline to enhance competitive advantage and drive sustainable growth [5][8] - UGI is raising its long-term EPS growth expectations to a compound annual growth rate target of 5-7%, supported by a robust capital investment program of $4.5 to $4.9 billion [5][25] - The strategic vision includes optimizing the portfolio and enhancing system reliability, particularly in the natural gas sector, to capitalize on energy expansion opportunities [9][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the operational and financial improvements at AmeriGas, which are expected to drive organic growth in the coming years [28] - The company anticipates continued growth in all business lines, with a focus on low double-digit growth over the planning horizon [36][37] - Future guidance for fiscal 2026 projects adjusted diluted EPS in the range of $2.85 to $3.15, assuming normal weather and current tax conditions [23][24] Other Important Information - The company has successfully implemented stringent project management disciplines and increased technological adoption, including AI, to drive efficiency [8][10] - UGI is committed to maintaining financial discipline, targeting a leverage ratio at or below 3.75 times for UGI Corporation and 4.0 times for AmeriGas [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for midstream and LPG businesses in the five-year plan - Management expects low double-digit growth across all business lines during the planning horizon, including midstream and LPG [36] Question: Update on natural gas activities and data center investments - Management confirmed ongoing significant discussions with over 50 counterparties regarding natural gas activities in Pennsylvania [40] Question: Comments on potential electric utility market considerations - Management stated that portfolio optimization remains a continuous focus, evaluating opportunities for value creation [42] Question: AmeriGas targets and deleveraging strategy - Management highlighted that AmeriGas has opportunities to drive value through operational improvements, expecting to approach a leverage ratio of 4.5 in the near future [49][53] Question: Consistency of earnings excluding one-time tax credits - Management confirmed that there will be no ongoing detriment or benefit from previous tax credits, indicating a normalized run rate for future earnings [56][58] Question: Changes in capital expenditure and shareholder returns - Management indicated that utility capital expenditures are expected to remain consistent or slightly increase, with a commitment to dividends in the future [60][61]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - UGI Corporation achieved record-adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.32, exceeding the revised guidance range of $3.00 to $3.15, representing a $0.26 increase from the prior year [4][17] - The company generated approximately $530 million in free cash flow and returned about $320 million to shareholders through dividends [4][21] - The leverage ratio for UGI Corporation was 3.9 times, while AmeriGas stood at 4.9 times, reflecting disciplined debt reduction and improved performance [21][25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - AmeriGas reported EBIT of $166 million, a 17% increase year-over-year, driven by operational momentum and tax benefits [17][21] - The regulated utilities segment achieved record EBIT of $403 million, up $3 million from the previous year, with a total margin increase of $39 million due to a 10% rise in core market volumes [18] - UGI International's EBIT declined by $9 million to $314 million, impacted by higher income tax expenses and lower margin contributions [19][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The utility segment added over 11,500 residential heating and commercial customers, increasing the customer base to approximately 967,000 across Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Maryland [18] - LPG volumes at UGI International decreased by 4%, influenced by structural conservation and customer conversions from LPG to natural gas [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - UGI is focusing on portfolio optimization to enhance resource utilization in core customer segments, aiming for a long-term EPS growth target of 5-7% [5][24] - The company is investing in critical pipeline infrastructure and new LNG and renewable natural gas facilities to expand revenue-generating capabilities [4][9] - AmeriGas is undergoing operational transformation to improve efficiency and customer service, with a focus on safety and financial discipline [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the growth outlook for all business lines, expecting low double-digit growth over the planning horizon [34] - The company anticipates continued earnings growth in the midstream and marketing segment, supported by fee-based margins and limited commodity exposure [23] - UGI International is expected to maintain performance in line with the current year, driven by strong margin management and organic growth initiatives [24] Other Important Information - UGI deployed approximately $900 million in capital, primarily in natural gas businesses, to position for future earnings growth [21][22] - The company is committed to maintaining a leverage ratio at or below 3.75 times for UGI Corporation and 4.0 times for AmeriGas to ensure financial flexibility [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for midstream and LPG businesses in the five-year plan - Management expects low double-digit growth across all business lines during the planning horizon, with consistent growth rates anticipated [34][35] Question: Update on NDAs and data center activity - Management confirmed ongoing discussions with over 50 counterparties regarding various projects, indicating significant activity in Pennsylvania [37] Question: Comments on potential sale of electric utility and portfolio optimization - Management stated that portfolio optimization remains a continuous focus, evaluating opportunities for value creation through holding or divesting assets [39][40] Question: AmeriGas targets for leverage and growth - Management highlighted opportunities for growth in AmeriGas through operational improvements, with expectations for EBIT growth to continue [44][49] Question: Clarification on tax credits and future expectations - Management confirmed that the bulk of investment tax credits received in fiscal 2025 will not recur, leading to a normalized run rate for future earnings [52][53] Question: Changes in CapEx and shareholder returns - Management indicated that utility CapEx is expected to remain consistent or slightly increase, with a commitment to dividends in the coming years [56]

| 《八 国を期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年11月20日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | なな☆ | F3066912 Z0016785 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 李海群 中级分析师 | | | | F03107558 Z0021515 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 11月稀释沥青贴水降至-11美元/桶，成本支撑持续走弱。11月以来周度出货量环比走低，亦处于近四年同期低 位。最新商业库存去化继续放缓,且社会库存在10月底出现同比偏高的拐点后同比幅度呈扩大趋势。"十四 五"收官之年赶工需求预期证伪,后续需求将遵循季节性走弱规律,年末需求不及去年同期的负面信号出现, 市场看跌气氛增加,中长期基本面对BU存在利空压制。 【液化石油气】 12月国际液化气进口成本价格预 ...

Report Overview - **Report Title**: LPG Industry Risk Management Daily Report - **Date**: November 20, 2025 - **Analyst**: Dai Yifan (Investment Consulting Certificate: Z0015428) - **Research Assistant**: Shen Weiwei (Futures Practitioner Certificate: F03140197) - **Contact Email**: shenweiwei@nawaa.com - **Investment Consulting Business Qualification**: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The core contradictions affecting LPG price trends include cost - end crude oil under supply - surplus pressure and geopolitical disturbances, with weekly crude prices oscillating between $62 - $66; the release of the November CP contract price with propane at $475/ton (-20) and butane at $460/ton (-15), indicating supply - side pressure; the start of propane destocking in the US with inventory still at a historical high; and relatively stable domestic fundamentals with low arrivals and a slight contraction in the supply side, while chemical demand remains strong in the short - term with PDH operating at a 70% - 75% rate despite compressed profits [3]. - The signing of a 2026 LPG supply agreement between Indian state - owned oil companies and the US, involving 2.2 million tons of annual imports, is a positive factor for the US supply side [3]. - Negative factors include continuous losses at the domestic PDH end, which may cause negative feedback, and the contraction of Asian cracking profits potentially reducing the demand for PG as a cracking substitute, with South Korean companies having maintenance and load - reduction plans in November and December [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 LPG Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for LPG is 4000 - 4500 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.86% and a historical 3 - year volatility percentage of 1.82% [2]. 3.2 LPG Hedging Strategies 3.2.1 Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for long - position spot exposure, it is recommended to short PG2601 futures at a 25% hedging ratio in the 4400 - 4500 yuan/ton range to lock in profits and cover production costs; also, sell PG2601C4400 call options at a 25% ratio in the 60 - 70 range to collect premiums and reduce costs [2]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - When procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for short - position spot exposure, it is recommended to buy PG2601 futures at a 25% hedging ratio in the 4000 - 4100 yuan/ton range to lock in procurement costs; also, sell PG26014000 put options at a 25% ratio in the 30 - 50 range to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [2]. 3.3 Industry Data Summary - A large amount of data on LPG - related prices, spreads, month - spreads, ratios, and profits are presented, including the prices of Brent, WTI, various LPG benchmarks (MOPJ, FEI, CP, etc.), their daily and weekly changes, and different profit calculations such as import profits, PDH profits, and cracking profits [6]. 3.4 Seasonal Data - Seasonal data for various indicators are provided, including price seasonality of LPG and its related benchmarks, spread seasonality, month - spread seasonality, ratio seasonality, profit seasonality, and freight seasonality [8][10][13][15][16][25][32][33][39][43][57]