Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - UGI reported year-to-date adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.55, an increase of $0.33 compared to the prior year period, marking a record performance [6][18] - For the fiscal third quarter, adjusted diluted EPS was negative $0.01, down from positive $0.06 in the prior year, reflecting typical seasonal patterns [7][12] - The company expects to achieve the top end of its fiscal 2025 adjusted EPS guidance range of $3 to $3.15 per share [7][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The utility segment added approximately 9,000 residential heating and commercial customers this fiscal year, demonstrating strong fundamentals [9] - AmeriGas is exiting the wholesale business, which represented about 11% of total LPG gallons sold in fiscal 2024 but was essentially breakeven [10][11] - UGI International's LPG volumes declined by 9% due to structural conservation and weather impacts, leading to a $19 million decline in total margin [15][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The utility segment's EBIT was $30 million for the quarter, down from $39 million in the prior year, with total margin up $4 million due to infrastructure programs [14] - Midstream and marketing EBIT was $27 million for the quarter, down $16 million year-over-year, with total margin decreasing by $9 million [15] - UGI International's EBIT decreased by $14 million, primarily due to lower total margins and higher depreciation expenses [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - UGI is focusing on optimizing its LPG portfolio, with expected proceeds of approximately $150 million from asset sales during fiscal 2025 [9][19] - The company is concentrating resources on high-return opportunities while providing financial flexibility to support deleveraging objectives [10] - UGI anticipates benefiting from ongoing discussions with potential generators and opportunities to utilize its infrastructure for natural gas and LNG [29][47] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's strong year-to-date performance and operational excellence, despite typical seasonal challenges [6][18] - The company is optimistic about the impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which is expected to provide additional tax benefits [24][26] - Management highlighted improvements in safety performance as a leading indicator of operational efficiency and company health [40][52] Other Important Information - UGI's leverage ratio was reported at 3.8 times for the quarter, with strong free cash flow generation and available liquidity of approximately $1.9 billion [18] - The company is preparing for the upcoming winter season with a focus on customer service improvements and operational efficiencies [41][44] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the potential benefits from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act? - Management indicated that the act will allow retroactive adjustments to interest deductibility and enhance tax benefits from investment tax credits [24][26] Question: What is the investment opportunity set for the Pennsylvania Midstream business? - Management noted ongoing discussions with multiple counterparties and expects robust opportunities in both midstream and utility sectors [29][47] Question: What metrics are being focused on for AmeriGas as winter approaches? - Key metrics include safety performance, customer service statistics, delivery efficiency, and free cash flow generation [40][42] Question: Are there any notable contract expiries in the midstream side? - Management stated there are no significant contract expiries anticipated that would cause a major shift in operations [46] Question: What is the outlook for strategic divestitures? - Management emphasized that divestitures are evaluated to ensure they are not dilutive and provide better value than holding the assets [31][32]

液化石油气日报 | 2025-08-05 观望情绪浓厚，市场氛围一般 市场分析 1、\t8月4日地区价格：山东市场，4450-4560；东北市场，4100-4350；华北市场，4410-4590；华东市场，4270-4500； 沿江市场，4450-4630；西北市场，4100-4250；华南市场，4280-4500。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年9月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷555美元/吨，跌3美元/吨，丁烷513美元/吨，跌15美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4360元/吨，跌30元/吨，丁烷4030元/吨，跌126元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年9月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷551美元/吨，涨1美元/吨，丁烷491美元/吨，跌29美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4329元/吨，稳定，丁烷3999元/吨，跌94元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 近日沙特阿美公司公布8月CP价格，丙、丁烷均均较7月大幅下调：其中丙烷为520美元/吨，较上月跌55美元/吨， 丁烷为490美元/吨，较上月跌55美元/吨。现货方面，市场在逐步消化CP价格的下调，华东、东北区域有所下跌， 其余区域维 ...

Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The short-term view on oil prices is oscillating and bullish, and investors can still focus on the hedging value of out-of-the-money call options on crude oil [2] - The crack spreads of FU and LU are both weak due to the soft fundamentals of the high- and low-sulfur fuel oil markets and the short-term macro and geopolitical support in the crude oil market [2] - The unilateral trend of asphalt follows the direction of crude oil, but the fluctuation range is relatively limited, and the low inventory still provides some support for the price [3] - The LPG market is under pressure overall, with the price running at a low level due to the downward pressure on the overseas market and the increased pressure on the delivery discount of the futures [4] Summary by Category Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, with the Brent 09 contract falling 1.25%. The trade war suppressed market sentiment, but there were still supporting factors for sanctioned oil [2] - Trump advanced the deadline for sanctions against Russia to August 8. Last week, Indian state-owned refineries suspended purchases of Russian oil, and the US issued a new round of sanctions against Iran [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The oscillating and bullish pattern of crude oil remains unchanged, but the futures of the fuel oil series have weakened. The LU2509 contract is temporarily supported at around 3,643 yuan/ton, and the FU and LU cracks continue to decline [2] - The arrival volume in the Singapore market increased significantly in July, and the demand for ship bunkering lacked support after the peak season. The ship bunkering volume in Fujairah has been weakening month-on-month since June [2] Asphalt - Asphalt performed strongly among oil product futures today. The domestic production volume in August decreased month-on-month compared to July, and the demand recovery was delayed in the South due to typhoon and rainfall [3] - The shipments of 54 sample refineries remained flat month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year increase since July was stable. The commercial inventory of asphalt has been slow to decline [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The Middle East CP was significantly reduced, increasing the pressure of oversupply on the overseas market. The chemical profit margin improved after the import cost decreased, and there is still room for an increase in the PDH operating rate [4] - The supply was relatively loose with the overall increase in the arrival volume in July, and the domestic market was under pressure. The strengthening of crude oil recently increased the pressure on the delivery discount of the futures [4]

Group 1: Market Analysis - On July 31, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4450 - 4580; Northeast market, 4140 - 4500; North China market, 4530 - 4650; East China market, 4280 - 4600; Yangtze River market, 4400 - 4620; Northwest market, 4100 - 4350; South China market, 4398 - 4500 [1] - In the second half of August 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 545 USD/ton, down 5 USD/ton, and butane was 513 USD/ton, down 15 USD/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4290 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton, and butane was 4038 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 538 USD/ton, down 5 USD/ton, and butane was 506 USD/ton, down 15 USD/ton. In RMB, propane was 4234 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton, and butane was 3983 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton [1] - Saudi Aramco announced the August CP price, with both propane and butane significantly lower than July. Propane was 520 USD/ton, down 55 USD/ton from last month, and butane was 490 USD/ton, also down 55 USD/ton. Domestic LPG prices partially fell, with East China's LPG maintaining stable sales. The upstream's shipping pressure was not high, but the high import volume and expected CP decline suppressed market sentiment. The sharp drop in CP prices reflected the weak fundamentals of LPG, with abundant overseas supply, no significant reduction in domestic production, and high imports and port inventories. The demand for civil gas was in the off - season, and the combustion demand was weak. Although the profit of PDH in deep - processing improved marginally and the operating rate increased, the subsequent growth momentum was limited [1] Group 2: Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating, pay attention to bottom - building signals on the disk. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The domestic LPG market is expected to continue its narrow - range oscillation. International LPG prices are weak, and an increase in warehouse receipts suppresses the market. Although domestic chemical demand is rising, weak combustion demand restricts price increases [1]. 3. Key Points by Relevant Information Price Changes - **Daily Changes (July 30)**: There was no change in South China and East China LPG prices, Shandong LPG decreased by 20 yuan, propane CFR South China dropped by 5 dollars, propane CIF Japan rose by 28 dollars, MB propane spot increased by 2 dollars, CP forecast contract price decreased by 2 dollars, Shandong ether - after carbon four rose by 100 yuan, Shandong alkylated oil increased by 50 yuan, paper import profit rose by 28 dollars, and the main basis weakened by 24 yuan [1]. - **PG Market**: The PG market oscillated. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4413 yuan/ton. The basis weakened to 370 (-63). The inter - month reverse spread continued to strengthen. Warehouse receipt registrations reached 9804 lots (+1000), with 1000 lots added by Qingdao Yunda [1]. - **Regional Spreads**: PG - CP reached 43 (+18), FEI - MB was 155 (-6), FEI - CP was 4.5 (+4.5), and FEI - MOPJ changed little at -47.5 (-3.75). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed, and the FEI propane discount continued to decline [1]. Market Conditions - **Supply and Demand**: The arrival volume decreased significantly. In South China, typhoons delayed vessel arrivals, leading to a decline in port inventories and a slight increase in factory inventories. The commodity volume decreased by 0.53%. Chemical demand was strong, with PDH operating rates rising significantly to 73.13% (+2.01 pct), and MTBE and alkylation operating rates also increasing [1]. - **Production Profits**: PDH profits improved, while MTBE export profits declined. FEI and CP - based PP production profits oscillated, with CP having a lower production cost than FEI [1]. Weekly Outlook - The domestic LPG market is expected to continue narrow - range oscillations. Chemical demand is strong, but weak combustion demand will continue to suppress price increases [1].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 C3产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 日期：2025年7月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENT 总结 01 LPG部分 02 丙烯部分 03 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 价格&价差 平衡表 供应 需求 下游库存 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 本周LPG观点：化工需求高位，价格相对抗跌 | 供应 | 国产方面，液化气总商品量52.5万吨，较上周持平；其中，民用气商品量21.0万吨（-0.2%），醚后商品量17.6万吨（+0.5%）；当前，国 内民用气商品量处于历史低位水平，而醚后碳四商品量则处于高位水平。进口方面，本周国际船到港量较上周环比减少31.7%至35.9万吨； | | --- | --- | | | 丙烷进口到船明显减少。成本端，国际丙烷价格走弱后,于周尾小幅反弹，FEI丙烷仍处于深贴水状态，市场情绪由供应压力主导。 | | ...

Report Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Despite the strong chemical demand outlook, the decline in oil prices and international LPG prices has led to a weakening of the PG market. The domestic LPG market is expected to continue its narrow - range oscillation due to weak combustion demand [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Basis - From July 1 to July 22, prices of various LPG products showed different changes. For example, the price of South China LPG increased from 4530 to 4570, while the price of Shandong liquefied gas decreased from 4486 to 4443. The basis of the main contract strengthened to 433 (+93), and the 08 - 09 month - spread was 38 [1] International Market and Arbitrage - FEI and CP continued to decline, while PP was running strongly. The production profit of PP made from FEI and CP improved, and the CP production cost was lower than that of FEI. The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window opened, and AFEI propane dropped significantly [1] Inventory and Supply - High unloading volumes led to a significant build - up of port inventories and a small build - up of factory inventories. The commodity volume decreased by 0.98%, mainly due to reduced external sales from the main refineries in South China's Maoming, increased self - use in Shandong, and limited supply in East China [1] Demand - Chemical demand was strong. The PDH operating rate increased significantly to 71.78% (+10.91pct), and the alkylation operating rate also increased. MTBE export orders increased, but combustion demand was weak [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing legal and administrative challenges faced by Yongxing Gas in obtaining a license for bottled liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) operations, highlighting issues of regulatory compliance and bureaucratic obstacles [2][27]. Group 1: License Application Process - Yongxing Gas has been applying for a bottled LPG operating license since 2016, but has repeatedly faced rejections from the Yuyao Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau [2][3]. - The Yuyao Housing Bureau has issued multiple decisions denying the license, which have been overturned by the Yuyao Municipal Government and the courts, yet the Bureau continues to deny the application [2][27]. - The Zhejiang Provincial High Court criticized the Yuyao Housing Bureau for its repeated refusals, stating it constituted an abuse of power and wasted judicial resources [2][27]. Group 2: Regulatory Framework - The regulatory environment for bottled LPG in Ningbo requires a specific operating license, which Yongxing Gas has not obtained despite its long-standing operations in the sector [7][9]. - The 2014 revision of the Ningbo Gas Management Regulations mandated that companies must obtain a license to operate bottled gas, which Yongxing Gas failed to apply for initially [11][12]. - The distinction between industrial and civil bottled gas operations is significant, with different regulatory requirements and oversight bodies involved [9][10]. Group 3: Legal Proceedings and Outcomes - Following a series of administrative rejections, Yongxing Gas has engaged in legal battles, with the courts often siding with the company against the Yuyao Housing Bureau's decisions [19][26]. - The company faced criminal charges for illegal operations but was later not prosecuted due to the court's rulings favoring its licensing claims [32][35]. - In 2021, a memorandum of understanding was reached between the Yuyao Housing Bureau and Yongxing Gas, outlining steps for the company to provide necessary documentation for the license application [31]. Group 4: Current Status and Future Outlook - As of 2024, the Yuyao Housing Bureau indicated that it no longer has the authority to approve the license, as the approval process has been elevated to the Ningbo City Bureau [3][37]. - The new gas planning regulations in Yuyao further restrict the establishment of new gas supply stations, making it increasingly difficult for Yongxing Gas to obtain the necessary operating license [37]. - Yongxing Gas has expressed concerns that the likelihood of obtaining the bottled LPG license is diminishing under the new regulatory framework [37].

Group 1 - The liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) production in Shanghai for April 2025 was 59,000 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 36.7% and a decline of 17.9 percentage points compared to the same month last year [1] - For the first four months of 2025, the total LPG production in Shanghai was 323,000 tons, which is a 15.0% decrease year-on-year, with a reduction of 2.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3] - The LPG production in Shanghai accounted for 1.4% of the national LPG production of 4,084,000 tons in April 2025, and 1.8% of the national total of 17,653,000 tons for the first four months of 2025 [1][3] Group 2 - The data reflects the production statistics from large-scale industrial enterprises, defined as those with annual main business revenues of 20 million yuan or more [4] - The decline in LPG production in Shanghai is significantly higher than the national average, indicating potential challenges within the local industry [1][3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the energy market, including crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and liquefied petroleum gas. It assesses the supply and demand dynamics, price trends, and investment opportunities in each sector [2][3][4]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose, with the SC08 contract up 1.76%. The US EIA inventory unexpectedly increased by 712,800 barrels, and OPEC+ continued its rapid production increase strategy, strengthening the supply-demand loosening expectation, especially in the fourth quarter. However, in the third quarter, oil consumption during the peak season supports physical crude oil purchases, and the supply disruption of European diesel leads to expectations of refining profit recovery. The final outcome of the US reciprocal tariffs, postponed to August 1st, is likely to be weaker than in early April. The Middle East geopolitical risks related to the Iran nuclear dispute remain. The report maintains a view that crude oil prices will rise from the bottom and fluctuate strongly in the third quarter, and short-selling strategies should be considered after the peak season's impact weakens [2]. Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - Crude oil led the rise in oil futures, followed by LU, while FU was relatively weak. For high-sulfur fuel oil, demand from ship bunkering and deep processing was low, and the summer power generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa did not boost it. The supply risk was removed as the Middle East conflict eased, and both the single price and crack spread of FU continued to weaken. For low-sulfur fuel oil, the previous strong coking profit led to limited short-term supply pressure due to the diversion effect, and the strengthening of the Singapore diesel crack spread since late June also provided some support. However, the demand lacked a clear driver, and LU's trend mainly followed crude oil, with the short-term crack spread expected to fluctuate [2]. Asphalt - In June, the actual refinery output exceeded the production plan by 100,000 tons (+4.3%), and the commercial inventory shifted from destocking to stocking in late June, with a stocking increase of 24,000 tons. The unplanned increase was the key variable that broke the asphalt destocking pattern. In July, the shipment volume of 54 sample refineries decreased slightly month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year increase in shipment volume since the beginning of the year dropped from 8% to 7%. The continuous high temperature and increased rainfall in many places are expected to delay the overall demand recovery. The sales volume of road rollers increased significantly year-on-year from January to May, and the third quarter is a crucial observation window for asphalt demand recovery. Currently, the single price trend of asphalt mainly follows crude oil, but the weakening fundamentals limit the upside space of BU [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The international market supply is generally loose, and although crude oil has strengthened recently, the LPG price has remained stable. Last week, new maintenance led to a decline in chemical demand, but the decline in import costs continued to repair the PDH gross profit. Attention should be paid to the subsequent rebound rhythm of PDH operating rates. The supply pressure persists in summer, and the decline in import costs limits the upward momentum of the futures price, maintaining a weak and fluctuating trend [4].