2月12日，港股市场承压，消费板块震荡调整，截至14:20，中证港股通消费主题指数下跌1.3%，指数成 分股涨跌互现，康耐特光学涨幅居前，百威亚太跌幅居前。 消息面上，商务部办公厅今日发布关于做好2026年春节假期消费品以旧换新工作的通知，其中提到，各 地要加强春节期间消费品以旧换新补贴资金保障，发挥不同渠道优势，抓好政策实施，更好满足消费需 求；顺应春节年俗、增添年味，鼓励消费者走出家门消费购物。 中证港股通消费主题指数覆盖酒旅、餐饮等传统服务业龙头，更包含潮玩、金饰等高弹性资产，以及运 动服饰、白电等高股息标的。截至2月11日，指数滚动市盈率为18.6倍，位于2020年发布以来3.9%分位 处。中国银河证券指出，消费板块当前估值处于相对低位，临近春节，促消费政策增多，消费活力逐渐 提升，消费板块有望上涨。 港股通消费ETF易方达（513070）管理费率仅为0.15%/年，是全市场港股消费类ETF中唯一的低费率产 品。Wind数据显示，截至昨日，该产品连续6个交易日获资金净流入，合计超10亿元，可助力投资者低 成本布局港股消费龙头。 ...

华西证券研报指出，携程《2026马年春节旅游市场预测》显示，在超长拼假、亲子游火热、外国游 客"反向春运"、反季节旅行升温等因素叠加下，今年春节旅游市场有望刷新"最热春节"纪录，多元需求 推动行业焕新升级，携程认为今年春节旅游市场将供需两旺、品质提升。 港股通消费ETF华夏（513230）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，该指数覆盖酒旅、餐饮等传统服务 业龙头，更包含潮玩、金饰等高弹性资产，以及运动服饰、白电等高股息标的。成分股近乎囊括港股消 费的各个领域，包括泡泡玛特、百胜中国、老铺黄金、安踏体育、农夫山泉、蜜雪冰城等消费龙头。 每日经济新闻 为抢抓春节消费旺季，从中央到地方，一系列"真金白银"的补贴、丰富多元的活动正密集落地。文 化和旅游部近日宣布启动2026年全国春节文化和旅游消费月系列活动，各地将围绕年俗、演出、展览、 冰雪游、避寒游、亲子游等热点，推出丰富多彩的应季文旅产品和活动，举办约3万场次文旅消费活 动，发放超3.6亿元消费券等补贴，推出门票减免、票根联动优惠、跨区域文旅优惠等举措，加大直达 游客的普惠政策力度。 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 在地方，文旅促消费活动精彩纷呈。春节期间，北京市级财政通过"北 ...

2月12日，港股大盘盘初跌幅扩大，恒指跌0.72%，恒科指跌1.44%，国企指跌0.71%，大型科网股普遍 调整。港股消费板块开盘后窄幅震荡，港股通消费ETF华夏（513230）现跌0.7%附近，持续打开低位布 局通道。 港股通消费ETF华夏（513230）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，该指数覆盖酒旅、餐饮等传统服务业龙 头，更包含潮玩、金饰等高弹性资产，以及运动服饰、白电等高股息标的。成分股近乎囊括港股消费的 各个领域，包括泡泡玛特、百胜中国、老铺黄金、安踏体育、农夫山泉、蜜雪冰城等消费龙头。 消息面上，2月11日，抖音生活服务发布2026春节消费前瞻报告显示，与去年春节前同期相比，鱼灯巡 游团购销售额增长890%，冰上游玩类与家纺品类团购销售额均增长超16倍，年夜饭销售额增长185%， 酒店宾馆、客栈民宿订单增长显著，节前消费市场呈多点开花态势。情人节与春节假期接踵而至，催 生"双节消费"。1月26日至2月8日，综合商场抖音团购销售额同比增长126%，服饰鞋帽增长124%，商 超购物券增长103%。 相关数据显示，2026年春节假期国内旅游市场热度持续上涨，计划出游人数较去年同期激增300%，市 场呈现"量 ...

银河证券研报指出，展望未来，美联储短期内降息预期降低，投资者风险偏好将受影响，配置方面，科 技板块仍是中长期投资主线，在产业链涨价、国产化趋势、AI应用加速推进等多重利好共振下，有望 震荡上行；消费板块则有望持续受益于政策支持，且当前估值处于相对低位，中长期上涨空间较大，后 续需关注政策落地力度及消费数据改善情况。 港股通消费ETF华夏（513230）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，该指数覆盖酒旅、餐饮等传统服务业龙 头，更包含潮玩、金饰等高弹性资产，以及运动服饰、白电等高股息标的成分股近乎囊括港股消费的各 个领域，包括泡泡玛特、百胜中国、老铺黄金、安踏体育、农夫山泉、蜜雪冰城等消费龙头。 每日经济新闻 2月12日，港股大盘盘初跌幅扩大，恒指跌0.72%，恒科指跌1.44%，国企指跌0.71%，大型科网股普遍 调整。港股消费板块开盘后窄幅震荡，港股通消费ETF华夏（513230）现跌0.7%附近，持续打开低位布 局通道。 2月11日，国新办举行新闻发布会。据商务部介绍，商务部启动多场消费活动，联合9部门策划"乐购新 春"春节特别活动，指导增加补贴、开展有奖发票活动等，各地已安排20.5亿元资金，通过发放消费券 等 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance industry, particularly for major players in the white goods sector, indicating a favorable investment environment for 2025 [3][5][6]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector is expected to benefit from the continuation of the "trade-in" policy and improvements in overseas production capacity, leading to enhanced profitability in the supply chain [2][5]. - The report highlights three main investment themes: 1. **Dividend**: Major white and black appliance companies are characterized by low valuations, high dividends, and stable growth, providing a high margin of safety and significant elasticity in stock prices [6][7]. 2. **Technology**: Core component manufacturers are transitioning into emerging tech fields such as robotics and semiconductor cooling, seeking cross-industry growth [7]. 3. **Export**: Recovery in export demand and sustained domestic sales of new products, particularly in the small appliance sector, are expected to drive growth [7]. Summary by Sections 1. White Goods and Components - In 2025, the air conditioning sector is projected to produce 195.37 million units, a 3% year-on-year decline, while sales are expected to reach 198.39 million units, down 1% year-on-year, with domestic sales increasing by 1% [5][13]. - The average price of white goods is declining due to high base effects from the trade-in policy, with air conditioning prices dropping by 13% year-on-year [23][24]. 2. Kitchen Appliances - The kitchen appliance sector is experiencing a recovery driven by real estate and trade-in policies, with online sales of range hoods and gas stoves increasing by 7.9% and 1.7% respectively in 2025 [33][34]. - Major companies like Boss Electric and Vatti are leveraging trade-in policies to boost sales, with Boss Electric maintaining a leading market share in range hoods [35][36]. 3. Small Appliances - The small appliance sector is seeing a revival due to the trade-in policy, with significant growth in cleaning appliances, although overall market consumption remains subdued [6][7]. - Companies like Roborock and Ecovacs are expected to benefit from high demand for new products, with projected revenue growth of 34% and 12% respectively in Q4 2025 [5][7]. 4. New Displays and Lighting - The emerging display sector is at a turning point, while the lighting industry is anticipated to see growth as it awaits market recovery [6][7]. - Companies like Hisense and OP Lighting are expected to experience revenue declines in Q4 2025, with projections of -10% and -2% respectively [6][7]. 5. Investment Highlights - The report recommends a combination of leading white goods companies such as Haier, Midea, and Gree, along with Hisense, as they are currently undervalued and offer stable growth prospects [6][7]. - The report also emphasizes the importance of component manufacturers adapting to new technologies and markets, with companies like Huaxiang and Sanhua expected to see significant growth in their respective sectors [7][29][30].

Group 1: Company Overview - Nanya Technology (688519.SH) is expected to achieve revenues of 49.48 billion, 61.75 billion, and 73.41 billion CNY for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 2.24 billion, 5.11 billion, and 7.83 billion CNY respectively, leading to a target market value of 229.80 billion CNY and a target price of 97.88 CNY for 2026, receiving a "Buy" rating [2][7]. - Shunxin Agriculture (000860.SZ) is projected to have revenues of 72.6 billion, 79.6 billion, and 86.7 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of -1.5 billion, 0.6 billion, and 1.7 billion CNY, reflecting a significant decline in 2025 but recovery in subsequent years, and is rated "Accumulate" [4][21]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The demand for high-end CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 40% from 2024 to 2027, driven by AI and high-frequency applications, although the market is currently dominated by a few key players [8][9]. - The white liquor industry is facing significant pressure, with production showing negative growth and a shift in consumer preferences towards quality over quantity, leading to intensified competition and a focus on value rather than scale [20][21]. - The asset tokenization market is entering a new era of compliance management, providing more diverse financing channels for companies with quality underlying assets, which may optimize their financing structures and enhance compliance credibility [15][17].

Core Viewpoint - The current A-share market is characterized by a blend of upward continuation and short-term volatility, necessitating investment strategies that align with risk preferences and market dynamics [1][2]. Market Conditions - Analysts believe that the market is poised for an upward trend driven by four key factors: ample liquidity, policy catalysts, calendar effects, and the interplay of valuation and earnings [3][4]. - The upcoming Spring Festival is seen as a critical period for investment decisions, with historical data indicating a strong performance of the market during this time [2][4]. Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend focusing on two main lines: technology growth and resource products, while also diversifying into cyclical consumption, price increases, and defensive assets [6][7]. - For medium-risk investors, a balanced approach involving profit-taking and a "barbell strategy" is suggested, combining dividend and technology assets [2][3]. Sector Insights - The technology sector is expected to be a core focus for long-term investments, particularly in AI and related fields, with a shift from hardware to application-based investments anticipated in 2026 [6][7]. - The cyclical and resource sectors are highlighted for their potential price increases and recovery opportunities, with specific attention to industrial metals and energy products [7][8]. Defensive Assets - High-dividend assets are recommended as a core component of defensive strategies, with sectors such as utilities, banks, and consumer staples being favored for their stability and yield [8]. - Analysts emphasize the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio that balances offensive and defensive assets to mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations and external uncertainties [8].

华创证券认为，春节消费旺季大幕拉开，各地促消费政策密集出台，为全年消费市场的"开门红"注入强 劲动力。通过梳理全国各地的春节促消费活动，观察到本轮活动呈现出"政府主导、多方联动、全域覆 盖"的鲜明特征，其核心在于通过"政策+活动"的双轮驱动，深度融合商、文、旅、体、展等多元业态， 旨在激发消费潜力、优化消费供给、营造浓厚节日氛围。在强有力的政策支持和丰富多彩的活动供给 下，2026年春节消费市场有望迎来强劲复苏，消费数据或将超市场预期，为全年消费市场的持续回暖奠 定坚实基础。 港股通消费ETF华夏（513230）紧密跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，覆盖酒旅、餐饮等传统服务业龙 头，更包含潮玩、金饰等高成长资产，以及运动服饰、白电等高股息标的，截至2月4日，指数滚动市盈 率为17.9倍，位于2020年发布以来2.3%分位处，股息率达3.6%；指数成分股近乎囊括港股消费的各个领 域，包括泡泡玛特、百胜中国、安踏体育、农夫山泉等消费龙头。 2月4日百胜中国公布2025年全年业绩，受强劲财报影响，今日涨幅超过9%，创出2023年10月以来新 高。全年来看，百胜中国经营利润达到13亿美元，同比实现11%的强劲增长，2025 ...

国信证券近日发布家电行业2026年2月投资策略：近期铜等原材料价格上涨引发市场对白电龙头盈利的 担忧，通过复盘此前几轮周期发现，原材料成本上涨对毛利率的负面影响逐渐减弱，白电龙头通过结构 调整、费用节省等方式，盈利能力有望穿越周期。2026年1月，以SHFE铜和SHFE铝收盘价月均值计 算，铜价和铝价同比分别上涨36.7%和20.9%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 核心观点 白电1-2月排产降幅收窄，政策拉动下需求有望企稳。据产业在线数据，2月我国白电合计排产量达到 2379万台，较去年同期生产实绩下降22.1%；1-2月合计排产量预计下降5.0%。环比2025Q4排产10%以 上的降幅来看，白电排产表现有所修复。分品类看，2月空调内/外销排产量较去年同期内/外销量分 别-38.1%/-26.5%，合计排产量1149万台，较去年同期产量下降31.6%，1-2月累计下降10.3%；冰箱内/外 销排产量较去年同期内/外销量分别-17.1%/-8.0%，合计排产量600万台，较去年同期产量下降17.0%，1- 2月累计下降6.4%；洗衣机内/外销排产量较去年同期内/外销量分别-5.9%/+1.5%，合计排产量630万台， ...

Macro and Strategy - The "fixed income +" strategy enhances returns by participating in various asset classes while reducing portfolio volatility, improving the Sharpe ratio and minimizing drawdown risks [6][7] - Analysis of financial assets from different time frames shows that A-shares and US stocks lead the equity market, while long-term bonds have shown steady growth [6][7] - The report highlights the negative correlation between Chinese bonds and A-share indices, indicating a "seesaw effect" between stocks and bonds [7] Industry and Company Retail Industry - The report discusses the impact of gold price fluctuations on the jewelry retail market, referencing the "gold rush" of 2013 as a comparative case [10][11] - It notes that gold jewelry retail sales surged by 72.16% during the 2013 gold price drop, suggesting a potential similar consumer response in the current market [11] - Current market dynamics differ from 2013, with a focus on product innovation and brand storytelling driving consumer demand rather than solely price speculation [12][13] Aerospace Industry - SpaceX's application to launch over 1 million satellites aims to create a global AI computing infrastructure, marking a shift towards space-based computing capabilities [14][15] - This initiative is expected to drive growth in sectors like space photovoltaics and laser communication, indicating a new wave of investment opportunities in commercial aerospace [15] Pharmaceutical Industry - The tumor gene testing sector is experiencing rapid growth, with significant stock price increases among leading companies in the field [16][19] - The report emphasizes the potential for tumor gene testing to cover various stages of cancer treatment, indicating a substantial market expansion [16][19] Home Appliance Industry - Rising raw material prices are expected to have a limited impact on the profitability of leading white goods manufacturers, as historical data shows diminishing effects over time [20][21] - Production rates for white goods are showing signs of recovery, with a projected stabilization in demand due to government policies [22][23] Chemical Industry - The report recommends investments in oil and gas, refining, potash, and phosphate sectors, highlighting a recovery in profitability within the chemical industry [24][25] - The report notes that the supply-side issues are being addressed through policies aimed at reducing low-quality competition, which should improve overall industry profitability [25][26] Metal Packaging Industry - The company, Aorikin, is positioned as a leader in metal packaging, with a strong market presence in both three-piece and two-piece can segments [28][29] - The report forecasts a recovery in profitability for two-piece cans due to industry consolidation and improved pricing power following recent acquisitions [29][30] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong product innovation and market positioning in the gold jewelry sector, as well as those in the aerospace and pharmaceutical industries that are poised for growth [13][15][19] - In the home appliance sector, it recommends leading brands that can navigate raw material cost pressures effectively [20][21]