12月29日，复旦大学可持续发展研究中心(以下简称"研究中心")公布了2026年1月复旦碳价指数结果。 此次公布了2026年1月全国碳排放配额(简称CEA)价格指数、2026年12月全国CEA价格指数、2026年1月 全国CCER价格指数以及2026年1月中国绿色电力证书GEC价格指数。 2026年1月CEA和CCER价格显著上涨 12月全国碳市场交投活跃，英国碳市场逆势暴跌 在发布环节，研究中心总结了12月全国碳市场的运行情况：第一，价格方面，本月CEA的日均收盘价为 61.83元/吨，相较于11月的日均收盘价59.87元/吨显著上涨约3.27%。本月碳价呈现先稳后升、高位整理 的特征。上半月在58-60元/吨的区间内徘徊，下半月连续八个交易日的大幅上涨将收盘价拉升至70元/吨 的平台之上。第二，成交量方面，本月碳配额日均成交量为201.28万吨，相较11月的238.77万吨回缩 15.7%。时至年末，履约期逼近，本月市场交易量虽低于上月，但仍然十分活跃，半数交易日成交量突 破二百万吨，单日成交最高峰为12月23日的357.39万吨。 12月23日，国家发展改革委办公厅、工业和信息化部办公厅、国家能源局综合 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Traditional energy: The slowdown in crude oil supply growth may help prices bottom out; tight thermal coal supply is expected to push up coal price levels; LNG supply growth acceleration is exerting downward pressure on global gas price levels [2][3]. - Carbon market: In 2026, China's carbon market is expected to return to a supply - tight state, and carbon prices may rise with fluctuations; European carbon prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the central level possibly slightly declining following natural gas prices [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - Supply: The supply growth rate has slowed, with geopolitical issues posing risks. OPEC+ continues to increase production but at a slower pace, halting production increases in Q1 2026; US production has entered a plateau phase and may face production cuts later. Non - US and non - OPEC+ supply increase expectations have also decreased. Overall supply remains loose, but the oversupply pressure has eased, and sanctioned countries' supply may decline periodically [9]. - Demand: Global oil demand growth continues to slow. Developed countries and China's oil demand have entered a plateau phase. Terminal demand lacks highlights, but structural contradictions in overseas refined oil markets and inventory replenishment in some regions support demand [10]. - Price: In a weak supply - demand scenario, the oil price center in 2026 may experience volatile bottom - building. The oversupply pressure will be relatively higher in H1, and the price may be lower in H1 and higher in H2 [11]. 3.2 Coal - Market situation: Since 2021, the coal market has been affected by multiple factors. Coal prices bottomed out in H1 2025, with clear cost support. In the medium - to - long - term, prices are likely to move within a range due to peaking coal demand during the energy transition [15]. - Supply control: To adapt to future coal demand changes and ensure energy security, coal supply needs to be controlled through stable production, safety supervision, and environmental monitoring [16]. - Demand: Coal demand remains resilient. New electricity demand, extreme weather, and the role of thermal power in the power system, as well as coal's use in the chemical industry, contribute to this resilience. Coal demand may peak between 2025 - 2027 and then enter a consumption plateau [17]. - Price: In 2026, coal supply has limited upward elasticity, and demand is moderately resilient. The fundamentals will shift from loose to balanced, with the price center potentially moving up to Rmb700 - 900 per tonne. Key factors include policy evolution and energy transition progress, and price dynamics are affected by unusual weather, speculative demand, market sentiment, and policy changes [18]. 3.3 Natural Gas 3.3.1 LNG - 2025 situation: Global supply growth exceeded 4%, but demand growth was less than 3%. By mid - Nov 2025, new production capacity added 42mn t, with a full - year expectation of over 46mn t. The actual supply increase exceeded 18mn t, with a growth rate over 4%, while the trade volume increase for the first ten months was only 9mn t, with a growth rate less than 3%. This led to a price trend of being higher in H1 and lower in H2 [22]. - 2026 outlook: The supply growth rate is expected to exceed 10%, while demand growth will be significantly lower. Capacity utilization will decline, and gas prices will face sustained pressure. Global production capacity is forecast to accelerate to over 60mn t, with actual supply increases potentially exceeding 40mn t, a growth rate of nearly 10%. The incremental output will mainly come from the US, Mexico, Qatar, and Nigeria. The global LNG trade growth rate in 2026 may be 3 - 4% or below 7% [23]. 3.3.2 Regional Market - Europe: The natural gas supply tends to ease due to global LNG capacity addition. Although Russian gas imports face uncertainty, the global supply increase can cover potential gaps. Residential and commercial gas usage will remain stable, and industrial gas consumption may slightly recover but is limited by energy transition. The gas price center faces downward pressure, and inventory replenishment pace is a key variable for seasonal prices [28]. - US: The market maintains a tight balance. Supply growth is expected to slow down, with some regions still having production potential, but associated gas production growth may decline. Domestic commercial and residential gas consumption may weaken, while industrial and power - sector demand are resilient. Exports will continue to grow strongly. The market is expected to continue inventory drawdown, with the price center staying at relatively high levels and regional structural contradictions becoming more pronounced [29]. 3.4 Carbon 3.4.1 Chinese Market - CEA: In 2026, the "tightening constraint" on quota carryovers in the national carbon market will disappear, and the market may return to the "reluctance to sell" logic. The net surplus of quotas will further decrease, and new demand from three new sectors may lead to carbon prices rising with fluctuations [31][32][33]. - CCER: The national CCER market is accelerating its "expansion". By Nov 6, 2025, 13 projects have completed emission reduction registration, with an initial volume of approximately 15.0428mt, and 11 projects are expected to complete registration in the next 6 months, adding about 7.5276mt of CCERs. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released more methodologies, and more may be issued in the future [34][35][38]. 3.4.2 European Market - EUA: European carbon prices will fluctuate within a range, with the central level potentially following natural gas prices to a slight downward adjustment. In 2026, natural gas supply will be more relaxed, and demand will be moderate. In the long - term, as the EU reduces the cap on allowances, carbon prices are likely to have a floor support [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The carbon emission trading mechanism is a core policy tool for China's "dual - carbon" goal. The current national carbon market is limited to the spot market, and after the expansion this year, the market size has increased by 60%. Listing carbon emission right futures is an important direction for enriching carbon financial products [6] - The national carbon market will enter a new stage with the implementation of a combination of free and有偿 carbon quota allocation. The initial, medium - term, and long - term goals of有偿 allocation are to stabilize the market, promote price discovery, and support low - carbon transformation respectively [7] - The "Notice" on green finance and green factory construction is conducive to the in - depth integration of green finance and industrial green manufacturing, promoting the green transformation of the manufacturing industry [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Carbon Market Weekly Overview - In November, the national carbon market's comprehensive price ranged from 51.54 yuan/ton to 70.14 yuan/ton, with a closing price of 59.65 yuan/ton and a monthly increase of 14.80%. The total trading volume was 4775.32 million tons, and the total turnover was 2.757 billion yuan [5] - In the third week of December, the comprehensive price ranged from 57.74 yuan/ton to 62.98 yuan/ton, with a closing price of 62.40 yuan/ton, a 7.53% increase from the previous Friday. The total trading volume was 972.88 million tons, and the total turnover was 579,633,428.88 yuan [5] - From January 1 to December 19, 2025, the trading volume of carbon emission allowances in the national carbon market was 212 million tons, and the turnover was 12.999 billion yuan [5] 3.2 Market News - Guangzhou plans to promote the construction of the carbon emission trading market and support the Guangzhou Futures Exchange to develop carbon emission right futures [6] - The national carbon market will implement a combination of free and有偿 carbon quota allocation. The initial proportion of有偿 allocation can be set between 1% - 3%, with the medium - term goal of promoting price discovery and the long - term goal of supporting low - carbon transformation [7] - The "Notice" on green finance and green factory construction promotes the integration of green finance and industrial green manufacturing [7] 3.3 Market Data - No specific data content provided other than the section title [10]

在近期召开的"2025中国可持续投资发展论坛"上，程仕军作出上述表述。在他看来，需要从根本上超 越"先污染，后治理"的传统路径，转而依托科技的颠覆性力量与金融的系统性赋能，共同构建一个更具 韧性、更富效率、更为包容的可持续发展新范式。 对于人工智能技术介入到可持续发展道路的过程中还存在哪些难点？上海交通大学上海高级金融学院副 院长、金融学讲席教授、可持续投资研究中心主任严弘称，人工智能、大数据等新兴技术可以帮助企业 更好地管理数据、分析数据、发现问题，推动生产结构转型、优化运营管理，但在实际应用过程中，存 在数据分散、信息披露标准不清晰等问题，这就需要提升数据的集聚程度，规范数据收集和披露的标 准。 "上市公司披露可持续发展报告的系统性、规范性和深入性还需要一定时间磨合。" "当前，我们正站在一个由科技重构未来的关键节点。全球可持续发展进程不断深化，以人工智能为代 表的科技革命浪潮正蓬勃兴起，这两股深刻影响未来世界发展格局的力量融合交汇。"上海交通大学上 海高级金融学院执行院长、会计学讲席教授、可持续投资研究中心理事长程仕军称。 体系，为其在海外项目地开展碳信用项目提供支撑；三是"一带一路"沿线减排成果未能有 ...

专题：2025中国可持续投资发展论坛 12月12日金融一线消息，2025中国可持续投资发展论坛今日召开，本次论坛的主题为"科技融合与可持 续发展新生态"。上海天工产业绿色发展研究院（筹）执行院长陈元哲出席论坛。 陈元哲表示，当前标准制定的核心挑战在于打破跨领域沟通的壁垒，标准的本质就是搭建"跨界翻译 器"。天工院目前聚焦两大标准体系：一是绿色核证碳清除标准体系，用于核算企业实施碳清除措施实 现的减排量并签发碳信用资产，供全球企业购买以抵消温室气体排放；二是自然信用标准体系，将生物 多样性保护或修复的净增益转化为可监测、可验证、可交易的生物多样性信用，助力上市公司在ESG报 告中呈现生物多样性保护的定量成果。 当被问及科技创新和数据治理在自愿碳市场重构的过程中扮演的关键角色时，陈元哲将其核心价值概括 为六个字："让信任可度量"。他进一步阐释，这一过程主要通过两步实现：第一，以科技创新破解"看 不见"难题。应用eDNA、卫星遥感等硬科技，将模糊的生态效益转化为精确的数据资产，实现从"讲故 事"到"摆数据"的质变。第二，以数据治理破解"信不过"难题。通过建立严苛的数据治理机制，从制度 层面消除市场对数据质量的信任危 ...

Core Insights - The establishment of the "Open Alliance for Carbon Emission Trading Markets" by China, the EU, and Brazil aims to enhance international cooperation in carbon markets, creating a framework for coordinating carbon pricing mechanisms and emission trading systems globally [1][3] Group 1: Alliance Formation and Objectives - The alliance seeks to create a transparent and credible global compliance carbon market network, facilitating international exchanges and cooperation in carbon market governance [1] - Participants in the alliance include both developed and developing countries, showcasing a trend of bridging cooperation in carbon market governance [3] Group 2: Global Carbon Market Developments - The COP29 conference marked a significant breakthrough in global carbon market collaboration, with consensus reached on the creation of carbon credit standards under the Paris Agreement [2] - The UNFCCC is advancing the development of approximately 19 methodologies for the Paris Agreement carbon credit mechanism, with several expected to be approved by mid-2026 [3] Group 3: Challenges in Carbon Market Integration - The establishment of a unified global carbon market faces challenges due to significant differences in economic development stages, energy structures, and emission reduction costs among countries [5] - The existence of 80 different carbon pricing tools globally, including 37 emission trading systems and 43 carbon taxes, complicates the integration of carbon markets [5] Group 4: Future Directions and Recommendations - Experts suggest a gradual approach to global carbon market collaboration, emphasizing the need for international rule-making and mutual recognition of standards [6][7] - China's role is highlighted as crucial in connecting developed and developing nations, leveraging its experience in renewable energy and carbon market development [8]

Core Viewpoint - The cooperation in climate and energy sectors can stabilize geopolitical situations and drive global progress, even amidst complex geopolitical environments [12] Group 1: UK Climate Diplomacy - The UK has returned to the forefront of global climate diplomacy with the appointment of Rachel Kyte as the UK climate envoy, a role previously abolished by the last government [2] - The UK delegation at COP30 is focusing on climate financing, particularly in supporting developing countries to adapt to and mitigate climate change [3] - The UK has initiated a proposal with 83 parties to the Paris Agreement, including the EU, to develop a "fossil fuel exit roadmap" [3] Group 2: Climate Goals and Challenges - Significant progress has been made in addressing climate change, with the Paris Agreement being the most effective global framework, shifting the temperature trajectory from over 4°C to 2.6°C [4] - The UK's net-zero economy is projected to grow by 10% between 2023 and 2024, while China's clean energy sectors are becoming crucial economic pillars [4] - The current trajectory is off course for the 1.5°C target, with increasing costs of delayed transitions manifesting in damaged infrastructure and productivity losses [4][5] Group 3: Financing and Cooperation - Climate financing remains a contentious issue in negotiations, with a need to move beyond binary debates on funding sources to a more diversified "all sources model" [7] - The urgency of climate action is emphasized, linking it to economic security and resilience, and the necessity of strategic use of multilateral platforms like G20 and COP [8] - The UK and China have significant opportunities for collaboration in green finance, carbon market development, electricity market reform, and nature-based solutions [10][11] Group 4: Complementary Strengths - The UK excels in market design, regulatory innovation, and financial architecture, while China leads in the scale and speed of renewable energy deployment [11] - The UK has successfully closed its last coal-fired power station, demonstrating a commitment to clean energy through clear policy signals and market reforms [11] - Both countries share the responsibility of aiding developing nations in energy transitions, promoting inclusivity and resilience in global transformations [11]

Core Viewpoint - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's low-carbon development strategy remains steadfast, with expectations for a comprehensive upgrade of the carbon reduction "toolbox" centered on carbon markets and green certificate markets, which will drive structural adjustments across multiple industries [2][3]. Group 1: Carbon Market Insights - The carbon market in China is set to undergo "capacity expansion + quota allocation" reforms, with an expected increase in carbon emissions coverage to 77% by 2030, leading to a long-term rise in carbon prices to 80-90 yuan per ton [4]. - The anticipated carbon market supply from CCER methodologies could reach 480-750 million tons by 2030, enhancing the market's overall supply [4]. - The carbon price increase is expected to facilitate the elimination of outdated production capacity in emission-intensive industries, providing competitive advantages to green enterprises [4]. Group 2: Green Certificate Market Dynamics - The green certificate market currently faces downward price pressure due to oversupply, but improvements in supply-demand dynamics are expected, with prices projected to rise to 6-6.5 yuan per certificate by 2026 [5]. - The transition from "certificate and electricity separation" to "certificate and electricity integration" is anticipated, driven by domestic demand for green electricity and international policies like CBAM [5]. - High green electricity consumption ratio enterprises will gain a first-mover advantage, particularly those located in regions with abundant renewable energy [5]. Group 3: Product Carbon Footprint Management - The concept of product carbon footprint management is emerging as a new paradigm in corporate carbon management, aimed at enhancing corporate "green competitiveness" [6]. - The establishment of carbon footprint accounting standards and certification systems is underway, which will benefit exporting companies and those in raw materials and long supply chains [6]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The upgrade of the carbon reduction toolbox is expected to create investment opportunities in green sectors, such as sustainable aviation fuel and green electricity direct connection industries [7]. - Low-carbon enterprises in high-emission sectors, such as steel, will have cost advantages and profit potential in the carbon market, while data centers and aluminum smelting companies with high green electricity consumption ratios will face lower transition risks [7]. - Companies with higher product carbon footprint management levels in long supply chains and exporting industries will exhibit greater resilience and "green competitiveness" [7].

Core Points - The COP30 conference in Brazil highlights China's commitment to green and low-carbon development, showcasing various sustainable products and technologies [1][2] - China has submitted its 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets, which include ambitious goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and expanding renewable energy capacity [1][2] - International representatives emphasize the importance of China's role in global climate governance and the need for collaboration with China to achieve climate goals [2][6] Group 1: China's Contributions to Climate Action - China has introduced a historic NDC that includes absolute reduction targets for greenhouse gas emissions across all economic sectors [1][2] - The country aims to increase its wind and solar power capacity to over six times the 2020 levels by 2035, targeting 3.6 billion kilowatts [1] - China's carbon market is developing steadily, with both mandatory and voluntary markets, providing valuable lessons for other nations [3] Group 2: International Cooperation and Support - China is actively involved in South-South cooperation, launching flagship projects like the "Clean Stove" initiative to assist developing countries in reducing carbon emissions [4][5] - The country provides technological support and renewable energy solutions to nations like Brazil and Antigua and Barbuda, enhancing local economies and promoting sustainable practices [5][6] - Various international leaders stress the necessity of multilateralism and collaboration with China to effectively address climate change challenges [6][7] Group 3: Technological Innovation and Economic Impact - China's technological innovations have significantly lowered the costs of clean energy technologies, facilitating the energy transition [2] - The promotion of distributed solar products in developing countries is creating economic opportunities and improving living standards [5] - China's commitment to green infrastructure and climate resilience is recognized as a vital contribution to global efforts against climate change [7]

Core Insights - China, along with the EU and Brazil, has established the "Open Coalition on Compliance Carbon Markets" during the COP30 to enhance international cooperation in carbon markets [1][2] - The coalition aims to create a framework for cross-national cooperation, coordinating carbon pricing mechanisms and emission trading systems to achieve a transparent and credible global compliance carbon market [1][2] Group 1: Carbon Market Developments - The coalition is a continuation of the outcomes from COP29, which laid the institutional foundation for its operation [2] - The coalition operates on a voluntary basis for countries/regions to join, promoting compliance carbon market practices and standard alignment [2] Group 2: China's Carbon Market Impact - The national carbon market has led to a 2.9% cumulative reduction in carbon emission intensity from power generation units from 2019 to 2024 [3] - The carbon market has reduced the growth rate of total carbon emissions in the power sector, resulting in a cumulative reduction of 357 million tons compared to predictions without a carbon market [3] - The implementation of the carbon market has lowered social reduction costs by approximately 40.5 billion yuan [3]