Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices is attributed to a combination of factors, including rising global bond yields and concerns over economic stability and central bank credibility [4][10][32]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices recently surpassed $3600, while silver exceeded $40, marking historical highs [4]. - The increase in gold and silver prices began in late August, coinciding with a significant rise in global bond yields, particularly in the U.S. and Europe [10][11][15]. - August was labeled as a "black August" for the global bond market, with U.S. 30-year Treasury yields exceeding 5% and German yields reaching their highest since 2011 [11][13]. Group 2: Economic Concerns - The market is currently facing skepticism regarding the effectiveness of central banks in managing economic challenges, including low growth, persistent high inflation, and significant debt deficits [24][32]. - There is a growing concern about sovereign credit risk, leading to a sell-off in long-term bonds, including those from traditionally stable countries like Germany [24][28]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to consider shortening the duration of U.S. Treasury bond funds due to the current market conditions, as long-term bonds may not see significant gains [33]. - In light of the recent market volatility, there is a recommendation to accumulate precious metals like gold and silver during price dips, with a cautious approach suggested until after the Federal Reserve's official announcement on interest rate cuts [36].

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Data - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 22,000 in August, significantly below the market expectation of 75,000, indicating a cooling labor market [1] - The unemployment rate in August reached 4.3%, matching market expectations and marking the highest level since October 2021 [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is at 88.3%, with a 0% chance of maintaining the current rate [1][2] Group 2: Gold and Silver Market - Spot gold prices reached a historical high of $3,600.15 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 37% [1] - The rise in gold prices is driven by expectations of a rate cut, a weakening dollar, and increased market demand for safe-haven assets [4][5] - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased from 953.1 tons at the beginning of August to 981.9 tons by September 4, reflecting strong investment interest [4] Group 3: Oil Market - Saudi Arabia is pushing OPEC+ to consider restoring more oil production to regain market share, leading to a drop in international oil prices [3] - Brent crude oil fell below $65 per barrel, marking a new low since August 18, while WTI crude dropped to $61.3 per barrel, the lowest since June [3]

再看黄金市场的"热火"有多旺： 黄金价格一举突破3600美元大关，创下历史新高，单日暴涨1.5%。这波上涨的根本动力是美联储降息预期——美国8月非农就业数据大幅不及预期，失业率 升至2021年以来最高水平。市场对美联储9月降息的预期已经飙升到近90%。 大宗商品这种历史级分化告诉我们： 老铁们，今天早上的大宗商品市场简直冰火两重天！原油价格暴跌至5月以来新低，而黄金却一举突破3600美元创历史新高。这种极端分化行情，我20年财 经生涯中也属罕见！作为专注中长线的投资者，咱们得看清这背后的深层逻辑。 先看原油市场的"冷空气"有多强： WTI原油直接跌穿62美元关口，单日暴跌2.5%，本周累计下跌3.3%。布伦特原油也失守65.50美元。这波下跌背后是三大压力： 帮主郑重一句话总结： 大宗商品的分化行情正是全球经济转型期的真实写照——传统能源时代渐退，避险资产价值凸显。中长线投资者要学会在这种分化中寻找机会，而不是被短 期波动迷惑双眼！ 关注我，下周OPEC+会议结果出炉后，帮主带你第一时间解读油价未来走势！ 大宗商品分化 #原油黄金冰火两重天 ------ 以上内容基于最新市场数据和分析，仅供参考，不构成投资建 ...

北京时间9月15日晚，黄金再次大涨，一度涨1.5%，最高报3600.18美元/盎司，再创历史新高；截至发 稿，现货黄金报3592.67美元/盎司，涨幅为1.33%。今年至今，现货黄金已累计上涨976美元，涨幅高达 37%。 消息面上，9月5日，美国非农数据公布，大幅不及预期！8月非农就业人口增加2.2万人，远低于市场预 期的7.5万人。8月失业率为4.3%，创2021年以来新高。 继续疲软的就业数据市场对美联储9月降息的预期进一步提升。利率互换显示，交易员预计美联储在9月 会议上降息25个基点的概率达96%。 在不远处的一家六福柜台处，记者询价了解到，该品牌9月5日金饰挂牌价是1060元，与4日持平，同样 该品牌也有每克60元的优惠。 柜台销售在向记者介绍款式时称，趁着现在没有调整价格可以入手，过几天说不定品牌的一口价黄金产 品都要调价。"因为黄金已经连涨了，产品现在还是原来的价格，过几天也要跟着上调的。" 能否入场 国际经济冲突不断，全球通胀走升，投资黄金用于对冲通胀、实现资产保值的需求上升。 本轮黄金价格上涨的重要信用制度因素是美元关键货币地位的削弱和因此而带来的国际货币体系动荡。 有人一口气买了20多万 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No core viewpoints are explicitly stated in the report. It mainly presents the daily data briefing of non - ferrous metals and precious metals. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold (AU) - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE gold main contract was 815.60 yuan/gram on 2025/9/4, and 814.40 yuan/gram for the near - month contract on 2025/9/5. COMEX gold main contract closed at 144.20 dollars/ounce on 2025/9/4, and the near - month contract was 164.50 dollars/ounce on 2025/9/5. The London gold spot price was 3546.55 dollars/ounce on 2025/9/4, and the SGE gold spot price was 28.70 yuan/gram on 2025/9/5 [1] - **Basis**: The domestic basis (gold T + D - main contract) ranged from - 815.60 yuan/gram to - 803.67 yuan/gram, and the overseas basis (LBMA gold spot - COMEX AU01) ranged from - 63.50 dollars/ounce to 108.20 dollars/ounce [1] Silver (AG) - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE silver main contract was 426 yuan/kilogram on 2025/9/4, and 9812 yuan/kilogram on 2025/9/5. COMEX silver main contract closed at 0.56 dollars/ounce on 2025/8/8, and the near - month contract was 1.61 dollars/ounce on 2025/8/8. The London silver spot price was 40.86 dollars/ounce on 2025/9/5, and the SGE silver spot price was 9770 yuan/kilogram on 2025/9/5 [1] - **Basis**: The domestic basis (AG(T + D) - main contract) ranged from - 22 yuan/gram to - 9 yuan/gram, and the overseas basis (LBMA silver spot - COMEX AG01) ranged from - 0.345 dollars/ounce to 0.61 dollars/ounce [1] Copper (CU, BC) - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE copper (CU) main contract was 730 yuan/ton on 2025/9/4, and 80140 yuan/ton on 2025/9/5. The international copper (BC) main contract closed at 640 yuan/ton on 2025/9/4, and 71130 yuan/ton on 2025/9/5. LME copper 3M closed at 59.00 dollars/ton on 2025/9/4, and 9971.50 dollars/ton on 2025/9/5 [1] - **Spreads**: The SHFE copper monthly spread (CU00 - CU01) ranged from 20 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton, and the international copper monthly spread (BC00 - BC01) ranged from - 800.00 yuan/ton to - 150 yuan/ton. LME copper 0 - 3 spread ranged from 2.39 dollars/ton to - 67.16 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE copper warrant inventory decreased from - 2345 tons to 18927 tons, and international copper warrant inventory increased from - 476 tons to 5121 tons. LME copper warrant inventory decreased from 425 tons to 2375 tons [1] - **Import Profit and Loss**: Copper spot import profit and loss ranged from - 255.36 yuan/ton to 53.79 yuan/ton, and copper 3M import profit and loss ranged from - 371.96 yuan/ton to 14.52 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum and Alumina (AL, AO) - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE aluminum (AL) main contract was - 45 yuan/ton on 2025/9/4, and 20695 yuan/ton on 2025/9/5. The alumina (AO) main contract closed at - 164 yuan/ton on 2025/8/8, and 3006 yuan/ton on 2025/9/5. LME aluminum 3M closed at - 10.00 dollars/ton on 2025/9/4, and 2604.50 dollars/ton on 2025/8/8 [1] - **Spreads**: The SHFE aluminum monthly spread (AL00 - AL01) ranged from - 5 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton, and the alumina monthly spread (A000 - A001) ranged from - 19 yuan/ton to 5 yuan/ton. LME aluminum 0 - 3 spread ranged from - 2.49 dollars/ton to 4.01 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE aluminum warrant inventory increased from 378 tons to 59961 tons, and alumina warrant inventory increased from 8428 tons to 106257 tons. LME aluminum warrant inventory decreased from 479600 tons to 9025 tons [1] - **Profit**: Alumina plant profit ranged from - 94.81 yuan/ton to 281.69 yuan/ton, and electrolytic aluminum plant smelting profit ranged from 1.73 yuan/ton to 4088.74 yuan/ton [1] Zinc (ZN) - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc (ZN) main contract was 15 yuan/ton on 2025/9/4, and 22155 yuan/ton on 2025/9/5. LME zinc 3M closed at 47 dollars/ton on 2025/9/4, and 2864 dollars/ton on 2025/9/5 [1] - **Spreads**: The SHFE zinc monthly spread (ZN00 - ZN01) ranged from - 40 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 0 - 3 spread ranged from 10.59 dollars/ton to 28.94 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warrant inventory decreased from 40772 tons to 26426 tons, and LME zinc warrant inventory decreased from - 80425 tons to - 54750 tons [1] - **Import Profit and Loss**: Refined zinc spot import profit and loss ranged from - 2375.28 yuan/ton to - 51.80 yuan/ton, and refined zinc 3M import profit and loss ranged from - 2096.76 yuan/ton to - 63.27 yuan/ton [1] - **Profit**: Refined zinc plant smelting profit ranged from - 220 yuan/ton to - 8.00 yuan/ton [1] Lead (PB) - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE lead (PB) main contract was 40 yuan/ton on 2025/8/29, and 16900 yuan/ton on 2025/9/5. LME lead 3M closed at 1990.50 dollars/ton on 2025/8/29, and - 2.00 dollars/ton on 2025/9/5 [1] - **Spreads**: The SHFE lead monthly spread (PB00 - PB01) ranged from - 70 yuan/ton to - 15 yuan/ton, and LME lead 0 - 3 spread ranged from - 44.77 dollars/ton to - 1.68 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE lead warrant inventory decreased from - 4392 tons to 54090 tons, and LME lead warrant inventory decreased from 0 tons to - 259550 tons [1] - **Import Profit and Loss**: Refined lead spot import profit and loss ranged from - 531.62 yuan/ton to 127.31 yuan/ton, and refined lead 3M import profit and loss ranged from - 561.03 yuan/ton to 77.63 yuan/ton [1] - **Profit**: Regenerated lead plant smelting profit ranged from - 106.60 yuan/ton to 3.20 yuan/ton [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel (NI, SS) - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE nickel (NI) main contract was 460 yuan/ton on 2025/9/4, and 121310 yuan/ton on 2025/9/5. The stainless steel (SS) main contract closed at 12850 yuan/ton on 2025/8/8, and - 5 yuan/ton on 2025/9/5. LME nickel 3M closed at 90 dollars/ton on 2025/9/4, and 15250 dollars/ton on 2025/9/5 [1] - **Spreads**: The SHFE nickel monthly spread (NI00 - NI01) ranged from - 310 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton, and the stainless steel monthly spread (SS00 - SS01) ranged from - 85 yuan/ton to - 15 yuan/ton. LME nickel 0 - 3 spread ranged from - 150 dollars/ton to 70 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE nickel warrant inventory decreased from 1057 tons to 21678 tons, and stainless steel warrant inventory decreased from - 3544 tons to 99439 tons. LME nickel warrant inventory increased from 5766 tons to 215310 tons [1] - **Import Profit and Loss**: Refined nickel spot import profit and loss ranged from - 1511.47 yuan/ton to 13.53 yuan/ton, and refined nickel 3M import profit and loss ranged from - 271.69 yuan/ton to - 46.25 yuan/ton [1] Tin (SN) - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE tin (SN) main contract was 4680 yuan/ton on 2025/9/4, and 272460 yuan/ton on 2025/9/5. LME tin 3M closed at 950 dollars/ton on 2025/9/4, and 34605 dollars/ton on 2025/9/5 [1] - **Spreads**: The SHFE tin monthly spread (SN00 - SN01) ranged from - 430 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton, and LME tin 0 - 3 spread ranged from - 15 dollars/ton to 280 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE tin warrant inventory decreased from 124 tons to 7397 tons, and LME tin warrant inventory increased from 215 tons to 2225 tons [1] - **Import Profit and Loss**: Refined tin spot import profit and loss ranged from - 16176.58 yuan/ton to 1547.47 yuan/ton [1] - **Processing Fee**: The tin ore processing fee was 12000 yuan/ton [1]

近期黄金市场出现重大动向：多头资金正持续大面积撤离，导致金价自历史高位回落。这是否意味着黄 金的连涨行情已接近尾声？背后又隐藏着怎样的市场逻辑？ 一、数据说话：多头撤退迹象明显 降息预期调整与美元走强：近期美国经济数据表现强劲，市场对美联储降息时间的预期有所推迟。这意 味着美元可能继续保持强势，而黄金作为无息资产，其吸引力相对下降。 技术性获利了结：金价此前连续上涨，累积了大量盈利盘。在重要阻力位附近，投资者选择获利了结是 正常市场行为，属于技术性调整。 地缘政治风险缓和：尽管地区冲突仍在，但市场对风险进一步升级的担忧有所缓解，削弱了黄金的避险 买需。 三、未来走势：黄金牛市是否终结？ 虽然短期出现调整，但决定黄金长期走势的三大核心逻辑并未完全逆转： 全球央行购金趋势未改：各国央行（尤其是中国、印度等）持续增持黄金储备，为金价提供了长期支 撑。 通胀与债务问题长期存在：全球通胀可能反复，加上美国债务规模持续扩大，黄金的长期保值功能依然 不可替代。 根据最新 CFTC 持仓报告显示，机构与投机者的黄金期货多头头寸正在减少，同时空头头寸有所增加。 这一变化通常被视为短期市场情绪转向的重要信号。 同时，全球最大黄金 ...

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/09/05 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601069 | 西部黄金 | 29.82 | 10.00% | 62.19万 | 17.22亿 | | 002716 | 湖南白银 | 6.11 | 5.71% | 246.97万 | 14.93 Z | | 600988 | 赤峰青金 | 27.85 | 4.86% | 85.51万 | 23.50 Z | | 001337 | 四川黄金 | 26.34 | 4.07% | 1 20.48万 | 5.32亿 | | 600547 | 山东黄金 | 37.69 | 3.97% | 54.54万 | 20.37亿 | | 002237 | 恒邦股份 | 13.38 | 3.88% | 36.85万 | 4.87亿 | | 002155 | 湖南黄金 | 21.53 | 3.76% | 71.60万 | 15.18 Z | | 300139 | 際程科技 | 23.27 | 3.51% | 73.76万 | 16.73亿 | | 600489 | 中 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. Instead, it offers specific investment suggestions for different varieties within various sectors. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market may enter a high-level oscillation pattern after significant gains, and the volatility has increased. The bond market is likely to remain range-bound, and the precious metals market has ended its continuous rise and slightly declined. The shipping index is weakly oscillating, and the steel and iron ore markets are affected by supply and demand factors. The energy and chemical sectors show different trends, and the agricultural products market is influenced by factors such as supply expectations and seasonal reports [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The current basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts are -0.36%, -0.37%, -0.77%, and -0.54% respectively. The A-share market may enter a high-level oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10-year treasury bond interest rate may oscillate between 1.74% - 1.8%, and the T2512 contract may fluctuate between 107.6 - 108.4. It is recommended to conduct range operations [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The safe-haven sentiment has subsided, and the precious metals market has ended its continuous rise and slightly declined. It is recommended to buy gold cautiously at low prices or use out-of-the-money call options for hedging. For silver, short-term high-sell and low-buy operations are recommended [2]. Black - **Steel**: The steel price is affected by production restrictions and off-season demand. It is recommended to pay attention to the long position of the steel-ore ratio. The iron ore price fluctuates with the steel price, and it is recommended to conduct range operations [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately and conduct arbitrage operations [2]. - **Coke**: The seventh round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and the coking profit continues to recover. It is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately and conduct arbitrage operations [2]. Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price center has risen, and the spot trading is weak. The main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000 [2]. - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The supply of aluminum is highly certain, and it is necessary to focus on the fulfillment of peak-season demand and the inventory inflection point. The main contract reference ranges for aluminum, aluminum alloy, zinc, tin, nickel, and stainless steel are provided [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The EIA inventory increase and supply increment expectations put pressure on the oil price. It is recommended to take a short position. The support levels for WTI, Brent, and SC are provided [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Different chemicals such as urea, PX, PTA, short fiber, bottle chip, ethylene glycol, caustic soda, PVC, benzene, styrene, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, methanol, and others have different trends and corresponding investment suggestions [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: The abundant harvest expectation suppresses the US soybean price, while the domestic expectation remains positive. It is recommended to arrange long positions for the 01 contract. The palm oil is waiting for the MPOB report, and the short-term oscillation range is provided [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The supply and demand contradiction in the pig market is limited, and the market shows a weakly oscillating pattern. The corn price is oscillating and adjusting, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The overseas sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the raw sugar price has broken through the support level. It is recommended to gradually close short positions. The cotton inventory is low, and it is recommended to wait and see. The egg market has some demand support, but the long-term trend is still bearish. The apple price is running around 8,350, and the jujube price has dropped significantly. The soda ash and glass markets are in a bearish pattern, and it is recommended to hold short positions [2]. Special Commodities - **Rubber**: The rubber market has a strong fundamental situation, and the price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to short at high positions if the raw material price rises smoothly [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price has risen slightly, and the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The self-discipline supports the polysilicon price to rise temporarily, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market sentiment has improved, and the fundamental situation remains in a tight balance. It is recommended to wait and see [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a standard rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, highlighting strong performance in precious metals and significant increases in minor metals [2][6]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry achieved a total revenue of 1,819.7 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.49%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 95.4 billion yuan, up 36.55% [6][14]. - The precious metals sector saw a remarkable revenue increase of 27.15% year-on-year, reaching 188.3 billion yuan, with net profits soaring by 64.71% to 9.7 billion yuan [6][26]. - The industrial metals sector reported a revenue of 13,585.3 billion yuan, a 3.46% increase, and a net profit of 697.4 billion yuan, up 24.42% [6][37]. - The energy metals sector experienced a revenue of 812.4 billion yuan, growing by 6.20%, with net profits skyrocketing by 1,389.33% to 53.1 billion yuan [6][37]. - The minor metals sector's revenue reached 137.7 billion yuan, a 14.24% increase, with net profits rising by 40.01% to 7.6 billion yuan [6][37]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance of Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The non-ferrous metals industry maintained a stable operation in the first half of 2025, with 73.76% of the 141 listed companies reporting revenue growth [14][21]. - The overall gross margin for the industry was 12.04%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin rose to 6.35%, up 0.98 percentage points [14][20]. Precious Metals - The precious metals sector's gross margin was 13.52%, with a net margin of 6.27%, both showing improvements compared to the previous year [26][27]. - The international gold price reached a peak of 3,500 USD/ounce in the first half of 2025, reflecting a significant increase in demand driven by geopolitical risks and inflation concerns [30][27]. Industrial Metals - The industrial metals sector's gross margin was 11.25%, with a net margin of 6.20%, indicating a healthy profitability despite market fluctuations [37][39]. - The average price of copper in the first half of 2025 was 77,562 yuan/ton, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [49][50]. Energy Metals - The energy metals sector's performance was notably strong, with lithium salt prices stabilizing and a significant increase in net profits [6][37]. - The sector's gross margin was not explicitly stated, but the dramatic rise in net profits indicates robust demand and effective cost management [6][37]. Minor Metals and New Metal Materials - The minor metals sector's revenue growth was driven by strong demand in emerging technologies, with a focus on rare earth elements and tungsten [6][37]. - The new metal materials sector reported a revenue of 539.3 billion yuan, a 6.63% increase, with net profits rising by 4.70% [6][37]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zijin Mining (601899) and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988) in the precious metals sector, and Tianshan Aluminum (002532) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) in the industrial metals sector [6][37].