Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a weekly increase of 2.78%, ranking first among all primary industries. The energy metals sector surged by 13.38%, while precious metals declined by 2.33% [14][1] - The precious metals market has fully priced in the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations, with the Turkish central bank's gold sales exacerbating market volatility [4][48] - Industrial metals prices rebounded as signals of US-Iran negotiations emerged, alleviating previous panic in the market [27][28] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.09%, while the non-ferrous metals sector rose by 2.78%, outperforming the index by 3.87 percentage points [14] - Among the sub-sectors, energy metals saw the highest increase, followed by small metals and industrial metals, while precious metals faced a decline [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices increased with LME copper at $12,141 per ton (up 2.59%) and SHFE copper at ¥95,930 per ton (up 1.26%). Domestic smelting plant repairs led to a rapid decline in social inventory, down 14.86% to 519,500 tons [32][27] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum rose to $3,285 per ton (up 2.90%), while SHFE aluminum fell to ¥23,935 per ton (down 0.35%). Supply risks increased due to attacks on facilities in Bahrain and the UAE [38][39] - **Zinc**: Prices rose with LME zinc at $3,107 per ton (up 1.65%) and SHFE zinc at ¥23,380 per ton (up 1.94%). Both LME and SHFE inventories decreased [41] - **Tin**: LME tin prices increased to $46,000 per ton (up 7.38%), driven by improved downstream demand as prices fell [45] Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $4,489.70 per ounce (down 0.05%), and SHFE gold at ¥998.66 per gram (down 3.90%). The market has fully priced in the Fed's interest rate hike expectations, with significant gold sales by the Turkish central bank adding to price pressure [48][4] - The recent geopolitical tensions have led to a simultaneous rise in gold and oil prices, indicating a return of gold's inflation-hedging and safe-haven attributes [49]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for both the non-ferrous metals and precious metals sectors [7]. Core Views - Recent declines in gold prices are primarily attributed to liquidity squeezes, as investors prefer holding cash during risk events, leading to the liquidation of gold and other assets [1][2]. - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over stagflation combined with weakened interest rate cut expectations have intensified volatility in risk assets, contributing to liquidity pressures [1]. - Historical parallels are drawn to the 1973-1975 oil crisis, where gold prices experienced a cycle of declines and recoveries influenced by liquidity events and economic downturns [4]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The recent drop in gold prices is linked to a significant reduction in net long positions held by asset management institutions, which fell by 32% from 134,000 contracts on January 13 to 91,000 contracts by March 24, marking a one-year low [2]. - The current market environment reflects a shift away from gold's traditional role as an inflation hedge due to liquidity squeezes, although the reduction in long positions may signal a nearing end to selling pressure [2]. Macro Environment - Gold is currently under "de-virtualization" pressure, particularly in cash-strapped Gulf countries facing physical shortages of goods, leading to a rational choice to liquidate high-yielding gold for essential items [3]. - The report notes that global central bank and private sector gold holdings are at historical highs, with the proportion of gold in reserves expected to rise from 12.8% in 2020 to 24.5% by the end of 2025 [3]. Historical Context - The report outlines the price movements of gold during the 1973-1974 oil crisis, where gold prices initially rose following the outbreak of the Yom Kippur War, then fell due to liquidity issues, before experiencing a significant recovery as economic conditions stabilized [4]. Future Outlook - Despite short-term pressures, the report remains optimistic about gold's long-term value as a hedge against risk, driven by factors such as de-dollarization and unsustainable fiscal policies [5]. - The potential for gold prices to rise to $5,400-$6,800 per ounce is highlighted if the proportion of investable gold exceeds 4.3%-4.8% by 2026-2028, compared to 3.6% in 2011 [5].

Core Views - The A-share market is showing resilience with a clear structural differentiation, indicating that the index may experience fluctuations in the short term while consolidating support [2][10] - The external influences on the A-share market are diminishing, with the market's own recovery momentum taking precedence [3][12] - The market is characterized by a "hot and cold" sector performance, with strong movements in innovative pharmaceuticals and agriculture, while previously popular sectors like green electricity are retreating [12][10] Market Overview - On Monday, the three major indices opened lower but rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing strength [5][10] - The trading volume remained around 2 trillion yuan, indicating a potential slowdown in the influx of new capital [12][10] - The overall sentiment in the market is moderate, with a general trend of more stocks rising than falling [6] Sector Analysis - Agricultural stocks, particularly in grain and farming, have seen an increase due to stabilizing domestic grain prices and rising overseas prices influenced by geopolitical tensions [7][10] - Aerospace and military stocks are performing well, driven by geopolitical conflicts and the emphasis on "self-control" in key technologies, which enhances the competitive landscape for domestic military enterprises [8][10] - The industrial and precious metals sectors are recovering, supported by ongoing economic growth policies and improving supply-demand dynamics [9][10] Investment Opportunities - Focus on companies that have been unjustly punished but can validate their growth logic through Q1 performance, as these firms are better positioned to withstand market volatility [3][12] - The long-term outlook for the A-share market remains positive, supported by China's diversified energy structure and stable growth policies [13][3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the current market is characterized by weak trading volume, suggesting a cautious stance among investors, with many adopting a hold strategy rather than actively trading [1][2] - The report highlights that the A-share market saw a slight increase of 0.05% on March 30, with a trading volume of 1.93 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 63.8 billion yuan compared to the previous Friday [1] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.81%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.84%, indicating a divergence in performance between sectors [1][3] Group 2 - The report notes that when trading volume decreases significantly, a rebound in the market is likely, with historical data suggesting that trading volume at the bottom typically ranges from 30% to 50% of the previous peak [2] - It is mentioned that the current trading volume has fallen to a range of 1.2 to 2 trillion yuan, which could signal an approaching turning point for a short-term rebound [2] - The report emphasizes that even if a rebound occurs, it is expected to be moderate due to the dominance of medium to long-term investors holding the majority of shares [2] Group 3 - In the Hong Kong market, the innovative pharmaceutical sector continues to rise, with the Hang Seng Innovative Drug Index increasing by 1.09%, contrasting with the decline in the internet sector [3] - The report indicates that the innovative drug index has shown resilience, not breaking below previous lows, which suggests a relatively favorable chip structure compared to the internet sector [3] - The report also discusses the bond market, which has experienced a significant downward trend, with various bond yields declining as market sentiment shifts towards risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions [4][5] Group 4 - The report highlights that the short-term and long-term bonds have shown strong performance, with yields on 2-5 year government bonds decreasing by 2-3 basis points [4] - It is noted that the central bank has increased its net reverse repurchase operations to 261.5 billion yuan, contributing to a supportive environment for the bond market [4][5] - The report mentions that the demand for medium to long-term bonds has increased, as indicated by a rise in the net subscription intensity index for bond funds [5] Group 5 - The commodity market is showing signs of recovery, with energy and metals experiencing upward trends, particularly in crude oil and precious metals [6][7] - The report states that crude oil prices have seen significant inflows, with a net inflow of 2.1 billion yuan, reflecting strong investor interest in the sector [7] - Additionally, the report notes that the market is reacting to geopolitical events, with fluctuations in oil prices influenced by developments in the Middle East [7][8]

Group 1: Domestic Economic Outlook - High oil prices are expected to alter the economic and profit growth patterns in the first half of the year, leading to better-than-expected performance in Q1 but potential downward revisions for Q2[3] - The impact of oil prices on the economy is non-linear; sustained high oil prices will exert more pressure on mid- and downstream profits than the uplift on upstream profits, increasing concerns about "stagflation"[3] - PPI is expected to turn positive year-on-year in March, with May-June potentially marking the peak for the year, enhancing the influence of economic fundamentals on asset prices[3] Group 2: International Economic Factors - The "revival" of the dollar remains a key issue in asset pricing, with the U.S. government aiming to restore dollar credibility through its ties with oil and key minerals[4] - A chaotic geopolitical environment and prolonged high oil price expectations make the dollar index difficult to stabilize; extreme scenarios could lead to a collapse of the dollar system[4] Group 3: Historical Context and Asset Pricing - Historical analysis shows that asset prices often oscillate between "inflation" and "stagnation," making it hard to form a unified trend[4] - For instance, gold performed well during the 1970s oil crises but underperformed during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict due to prior significant price increases[4] - The resilience of the U.S. economy and new trends in the tech sector contributed to stock market gains during the second oil crisis in 1979 and the 2022 conflict[4] Group 4: Weekly High-Frequency Data Overview - The domestic economy shows stability driven by internal demand, with investment outpacing consumption; indicators like high furnace and rebar operating rates remain steady[5] - Trade and freight indicators remain elevated, while second-hand housing transactions show significant divergence across cities[5] - Price trends indicate structural differentiation rather than widespread inflation, with some consumer goods showing weak year-on-year performance[5] Group 5: Upcoming Focus and Risks - Attention will be on the release of the PMI at the end of the month, alongside market expectations for consumption recovery post-Qingming holiday[6] - The trajectory of the U.S.-Iran conflict and its impact on asset prices remains highly uncertain, with potential for increased volatility in asset prices[7]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the construction of a strategy portfolio based on industry and thematic ETFs, leveraging quantitative analysis of industry style continuation and switching perspectives [2]. - The strategy update indicates adjustments in holdings, with specific ETFs being added or maintained based on their performance and market signals [3][12]. ETF Holdings and Performance - The report lists various ETFs along with their market values and sector weights, highlighting significant holdings such as the Shipbuilding ETF with 41.57% in marine equipment and the Wine ETF with 84.12% in liquor [3]. - The strategy's cumulative net return from March 23 to March 27, 2026, was approximately -1.33%, with an excess return of about 0.15% compared to the CSI 300 ETF [3][11]. - Since October 14, 2024, the strategy has achieved a cumulative return of approximately 27.53%, outperforming the CSI 300 ETF by about 8.23% [3]. Recommended Sectors and Products - For the upcoming week, the report recommends focusing on sectors such as marine equipment, liquor, and securities, with specific ETFs like the Shipbuilding ETF and Securities Insurance ETF being highlighted for addition to the portfolio [12]. - The report also notes that some ETFs and indices have provided daily or weekly risk signals, indicating potential market volatility [12].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Financial Street Securities Research Institute constructs a strategy portfolio based on industry and thematic ETFs, and the model recommends allocating sectors such as marine equipment, liquor, and securities in the week of March 30, 2026 [2][12] - The strategy will newly hold products like the Ship ETF Fuguo, Securities and Insurance ETF E Fund, and Aerospace ETF Huatai-PineBridge, and continue to hold products like the Liquor ETF Penghua and Building Materials ETF Guotai in the next week [12] - As of last weekend, the trading timing signals of some ETFs and underlying indexes gave daily or weekly risk warnings [12] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Portfolio Construction - The Financial Street Securities Research Institute constructs a strategy portfolio based on industry and thematic ETFs, referring to the strategy reports "Strategy Portfolio Report under Industry Rotation: Quantitative Analysis from the Perspective of Industry Style Continuity and Switching" (20241007) and "Research on the Overview and Allocation Methods of the Stock ETF Market: Taking the ETF Portfolio Based on the Industry Rotation Strategy as an Example" (20241013) [2] ETF Portfolio Information - The ETF portfolio includes multiple products such as the Ship ETF Fuguo, Liquor ETF Penghua, and Securities and Insurance ETF E Fund, with details on their market values, holding situations, heavy - held Shenwan industries and their weights, as well as weekly and daily timing signals [3] Performance Tracking - From March 23 to March 27, 2026, the cumulative net return of the strategy was approximately - 1.33%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was approximately 0.15% [3] - From October 14, 2024, to March 27, 2026, the out - of - sample cumulative return of the strategy was approximately 27.53%, and the cumulative excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was approximately 8.23% [3] ETF Portfolio Changes - In the week of March 23 - 29, 2026, some ETFs such as the Film and Television ETF Yin Hua, Telecommunications ETF E Fund were调出, while the Liquor ETF Penghua and Building Materials ETF Guotai were continued to be held. The average return of the ETF portfolio was - 1.33%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was 0.15% [11]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rebounding slightly, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index experienced minor declines, indicating a volatile market with noticeable sector rotation [5] - A total of 2,865 stocks rose, reflecting a market environment where more stocks gained than lost, suggesting an improvement in market profitability compared to previous periods [5] - The trading volume across both exchanges exceeded 1 trillion yuan, marking a 3.38% increase, indicating a moderate recovery in market activity and a stable trading environment [5] Capital Flow - Main funds exhibited a slight net outflow, indicating a cautious adjustment and structural optimization by institutional investors, who reduced holdings in high-performing sectors while focusing on low-position and defensive strategies [6] - Retail investors showed a more active participation with a net inflow of funds, indicating a willingness to engage in the market's recovery by targeting both hot and low-position stocks [6] Investor Sentiment - Retail investor sentiment was reported at 75.85%, reflecting a generally positive outlook among individual investors [7] - The sentiment towards market movements indicated that 64.24% of respondents expected the market to rise in the next trading day, showcasing optimism among investors [14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Lingbao Gold (03330.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [4][3][30] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant profit increase of 121% year-on-year in 2025, driven by rising gold prices and production volumes, with total revenue projected at 13.14 billion yuan, up 10.8% [1][9] - The mining segment's profit is anticipated to grow by 130.8% in 2025, with total revenue reaching 4.17 billion yuan, a 62.1% increase, benefiting from both higher gold prices and increased production [7][14] - The company aims to expand its mining production capacity and explore new gold resources, with strategic projects in Papua New Guinea and Ecuador expected to contribute to future growth [3][27] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 1.54 billion yuan, representing a 121.1% increase compared to 2024 [8][9] - The first half of 2025 is expected to yield a profit of 660 million yuan, while the second half is projected at 880 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 61.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 32.4% [1][9] Production and Sales - The total production of gold concentrate and refined gold in 2025 is expected to be 5,941 kg, an increase of 15.1% year-on-year, with sales reaching 6,013 kg, up 16.0% [2][10] - The company produced 16.9 tons of gold ingots in 2025, a decrease of 18.8% from the previous year, with sales also declining by 18.4% [2][10] Future Projections - For 2026-2028, assuming an average gold price of 1,000 yuan per gram, the company’s net profit is projected to be 2.64 billion yuan in 2026, 2.85 billion yuan in 2027, and 3.93 billion yuan in 2028, with respective growth rates of 71%, 8%, and 38% [3][27] - The diluted EPS is expected to be 1.95 yuan in 2026, 2.11 yuan in 2027, and 2.91 yuan in 2028, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.1, 11.2, and 8.1 [3][27]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation has eased for gold, and silver has fallen off the oscillation platform. The price, trading volume, position, inventory, and spread of precious metals have all shown certain changes, along with some significant macro and industry news [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Fundamental Data - **Price**: Most gold prices showed a decline, with沪金2602 down 9.55% to 940.00 and Comex黄金2602 down 1.82% to 4410.40. Most silver prices had a mixed trend, with沪银2602 down 12.30% to 15498 but Comex白银2602 up 2.23% to 69.320 [1]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of沪金2602 increased by 43,191 to 386,422, and that of Comex黄金2602 increased by 171,659 to 392,432. The trading volume of沪银2602 decreased by 2,980 to 136,668, while that of Comex白银2602 increased by 37,853 to 86,911 [1]. - **Position**: The position of沪金2602 decreased by 6,229 to 62,764, and that of Comex黄金2602 decreased by 11,063 to 149,406. The position of沪银2602 decreased by 3,257 to 55,828, and that of Comex白银2602 remained unchanged at 72,735 [1]. - **ETF Position**: The SPDR黄金ETF position decreased by 4 to 1,052.70, and the SLV白银ETF position (the day before yesterday) increased by 265 to 15,513.67 [1]. - **Inventory**: The沪金 inventory decreased by 99 to 106,746 kilograms, and the Comex黄金 inventory (the day before yesterday) remained unchanged at 32,054,275 troy ounces. The沪银 inventory increased by 2054 to 364,549 kilograms, and the Comex白银 inventory (the day before yesterday) decreased by 1,989,464 to 332,695,255 troy ounces [1]. - **Spread**: The spread between gold T+D and AU2602 remained unchanged at -19.01. The spread between沪金2602 and 2606 contracts was not available. The cost of the long - December and short - June inter - period arbitrage for gold decreased by 0.87 to 4.77. The spread between silver T+D and AG2602 decreased by 99 to -66. The spread between沪银2602 and 2606 contracts decreased by 414 to -13,933. The cost of the long - December and short - June inter - period arbitrage for silver decreased by 11.3 to 73.41 [1]. 3.2 Exchange Rate - The dollar index was 99.12, and the dollar - to - RMB (CNY spot) was 6.91. The euro - to - dollar was 1.16 with no change, the dollar - to - yen was 159.22 with an increase of 0.05, and the pound - to - dollar was 1.21 with no change [1]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - The Pentagon is planning a "weeks - long ground operation", and the USS Tripoli amphibious assault ship and 3,500 soldiers have arrived in the Middle East [1][3]. - Saudi Arabia's key east - west oil pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz is operating at full capacity of 7 million barrels per day, and the oil exports from Yanbu Port have soared to a record high [4]. - Thailand has reached an agreement with Iran on the passage of its oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, and Malaysia says Iran allows its stranded oil tankers to pass [4]. - US consumer inflation expectations have reached the largest increase in nearly a year [4]. - Two major aluminum giants in the Middle East have been attacked. Emirates Global Aluminium has not disclosed whether it will stop production, and 6% of global production capacity is at stake. Citi says aluminum prices may soar to $4,000 per ton [4]. 3.4 Trend Strength - The trend strength of gold is 0, and that of silver is also 0 [4].