Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is expected to continue a moderately strong and volatile trend. The dovish expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25BP in September is likely to dominate the market. The research team is optimistic about the medium - term trend of gold but warns that the recovery expectation from the strong performance of emerging - market equities may suppress its elasticity. The Fed is expected to restart the interest - rate cut cycle in September, and overseas liquidity will maintain an expansion trend in the next 1 - 2 quarters, which is favorable for the gold trend. The current weak economic reality has not reversed, and the "interest - rate cut + fundamental downturn" stagflation - like combination is more beneficial to gold. If the situation changes to an "interest - rate cut + recovery" combination, silver will benefit more [2][4][7]. 3) Summary by Related Content Key Information - Trump's executive order to double India's tariffs to 50% took effect. Starting from 00:01 on the 27th Eastern Time, the US imposed an additional 25% ad - valorem tariff on imported Indian goods, causing many US customers to cancel orders. - The Trump administration is considering exerting greater influence on the 12 regional reserve banks of the Fed. Trump claims to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook from office, and if approved by the court, he will have the opportunity to control a majority of seats on the seven - member Fed Board of Governors. - Fed's Williams is quite optimistic about the economic situation, stating that the Fed may still maintain a certain degree of restrictiveness after interest - rate cuts, and each meeting is full of uncertainties [3]. Price Logic - On Wednesday, gold continued its moderately strong and volatile trend, while silver weakened slightly. Concerns about the Fed's independence are intensifying, and the doubling of US - India tariffs has increased the long - term stagflation expectation in the US. The late - session decline of the domestic equity market has suppressed silver prices in the short term. Before the release of next week's non - farm payroll data, the market's expectation of a 25BP interest - rate cut by the Fed in September remains stable [2][4]. Outlook - The weekly range for spot London gold is expected to be between 3300 and 3500, and for spot London silver, it is expected to be between 36 and 40 [7]. Index Data - On August 27, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures Commodity was 2211.28, down 0.50%; the Commodity 20 Index was 2459.50, down 0.54%; the industrial products index was 2244.49, down 0.59%. The precious metals index was 2729.16, with a daily decline of 0.16%, a 5 - day increase of 1.02%, a 1 - month increase of 1.05%, and a year - to - date increase of 23.36% [46][48].

Group 1 - The domestic precious metals market showed positive performance on August 26, with both gold and silver futures experiencing slight increases in price [1] - The main contract for gold (沪金) was reported at 780.26 CNY per gram, reflecting a 0.17% increase, while the main contract for silver (沪银) was at 9366.00 CNY per kilogram, with a 0.24% rise [1] - The opening prices for gold and silver futures were 778.44 CNY and 9344.00 CNY respectively, with the previous closing prices being 779.18 CNY and 9394.00 CNY [2] Group 2 - As of August 25, the silver futures warehouse receipts totaled 1,113,641 kilograms, an increase of 4,518 kilograms compared to the previous trading day, while gold futures warehouse receipts reached 37,515 kilograms, up by 60 kilograms [3] - There were no instances of "backwardation" (where spot prices exceed futures prices) reported for any commodity contracts as of August 25 [3] - The basis for gold was calculated at -7 CNY with a basis rate of -0.91%, while for silver, the basis was -138 CNY with a basis rate of -1.50% [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - On August 21, Shanghai gold futures closed at 775.12 yuan per gram, with a daily increase of 0.30% and a trading volume of 128,755 lots [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 773.25 yuan per gram, indicating a discount of 1.87 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [1] - International precious metals futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures increasing by 1.00% to $3,392.20 per ounce and COMEX silver futures rising by 1.51% to $37.90 per ounce [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes revealed that nearly all decision-makers supported maintaining interest rates, with only two dissenting voices advocating for a rate cut [2] - There is a divergence among Fed officials regarding inflation and employment risks, with most believing that inflation risks outweigh those related to employment [2] - Some officials indicated potential support for a rate cut in the September meeting, as the transmission of tariff increases to consumer prices has been slower than expected [2] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Jinrui Futures noted that after a round of price corrections due to policy expectations and geopolitical downgrades, gold and silver prices showed signs of stabilization and rebound [4] - However, short-term upward momentum for gold and silver prices remains lacking, while medium-term economic pressures in the U.S. and expectations of loose monetary policy may drive prices higher [4] - The expected trading range for COMEX gold is between $3,350 and $3,400 per ounce, while for Shanghai gold, it is between 770 and 790 yuan per gram [4] Group 4: SPDR Gold Trust Holdings - As of August 20, the holdings of SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) decreased by 0.42%, amounting to a reduction of 4.01 tons, bringing the total to 958.20 tons [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term volatility of gold has increased, but the mid - line upward trend remains good. London gold may trade in a wide range between $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise again. The long - term and mid - term bull markets of gold are supported by multiple factors, but the high price also means significant volatility. Investors are advised to take a long - term view and participate with medium - low positions. Bearish traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunity when silver's upward momentum fades [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook - **Intraday Quotes**: Overnight, London gold continued to pull back to around $3340 per ounce due to Trump's clarification of no plan to impose tariffs on gold and silver and the potential cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Silver prices were relatively strong due to expectations of China's anti - involution policy. The market expects the US overall CPI and core CPI to increase by 2.8% and 3% year - on - year respectively. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump's new policies. Investors are advised to maintain a long - term view and participate with medium - low positions. This week, key events include the US - Russia summit, US inflation data, Fed officials' statements, and China's economic data [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Quotes**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 777.83, down 0.44%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9206, down 0.25%; Gold T + D closed at 772.56, down 0.43%; Silver T + D closed at 9159, down 0.15%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed [5]. - **Mid - term Quotes**: Since late April, London gold has been trading in a wide range between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. Although international trade cooling and US fiscal expansion have weakened gold's demand, Trump's new policies, geopolitical risks, and Fed rate - cut expectations support the price. The gold - silver ratio has rebounded slightly after falling to 86. In the long - term, gold's bull market is supported by the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system, and in the mid - term, it is supported by Trump's reforms and economic factors. However, high prices also bring high volatility. In the short - term, London gold is expected to continue to trade within the range [5]. II. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indexes, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai Gold T + D, and gold and silver ETF holdings, but no specific analysis of these charts is provided [7][9][11]. III. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump signed an executive order to extend the tariff truce with China by 90 days and may allow NVIDIA to sell a reduced - version of its next - generation chips in China. - Trump proposed that both Ukraine and Russia should make territorial concessions to end the war, and he will meet with Putin on Friday. European leaders and Zelensky plan to talk to Trump before the meeting. - Trump stated that he will not impose tariffs on gold. - Trump will deploy 800 National Guard soldiers to Washington, DC, and put the local police under federal control to combat crime [17][18].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides daily data briefings on non - ferrous metals and precious metals on August 12, 2025, including gold, silver, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and tin [1] Group 2: Gold (AU) - The closing price of SHFE gold主力 contract was 776.04 yuan/gram on July 15, 2025, with a change of - 3.44 yuan compared to the previous day, - 3.44 yuan compared to the day before, and - 4.36 yuan compared to last week [1] - The closing price of COMEX gold主力 contract was 3393.70 dollars/ounce, down 34.90 dollars from the previous day, 64.50 dollars from the day before, and up 63.20 dollars from last week [1] - The London gold spot price was 3395.63 dollars/ounce, unchanged from the previous day and up 26.08 dollars from last week [1] Group 3: Silver (AG) - The closing price of SHFE silver主力 contract was 9187 yuan/kilogram on August 12, 2025, down 23 yuan from the previous day, up 112 yuan from last month, and down 38 yuan from the day before [1] - The closing price of COMEX silver主力 contract was 37.65 dollars/ounce, down 0.19 dollars from last week, down 0.86 dollars from last month, and down 0.34 dollars from the previous day [1] - The London silver spot price was 38.29 dollars/ounce, unchanged from the previous day, down 0.71 dollars from last week, and up 1.14 dollars from last month [1] Group 4: Copper (CU, BC) - The closing price of SHFE copper (CU)主力 contract was 79020 yuan/ton on August 12, 2025, up 930 yuan from last week, up 440 yuan from last month, and unchanged from the previous day [1] - LME copper 3M closing price (15:00) was 9770.50 dollars/ton, up 4.50 dollars from the previous day, up 46.00 dollars from last week, and up 124.50 dollars from last month [1] - LME copper仓单 inventory was 155700 tons, down 150 tons from the previous day, up 16125 tons from last week, and up 46075 tons from last month [1] Group 5: Aluminum and Alumina (AL, AO) - The closing price of SHFE aluminum (AL)主力 contract was 20735 yuan/ton on August 12, 2025, up 35 yuan from the previous day, up 175 yuan from last week, and up 305 yuan from last month [1] - The closing price of alumina (AO)主力 contract was 81 yuan/ton, down 143 yuan from last week and down 3308 yuan from last month [1] - LME aluminum 3M closing price (15:00) was 2605.00 dollars/ton, down 12.00 dollars from the previous day, up 12.50 dollars from last week, and up 31.00 dollars from last month [1] Group 6: Zinc (ZN) - The closing price of SHFE zinc (ZN)主力 contract was 22630 yuan/ton on August 12, 2025, up 250 yuan from last week, up 545 yuan from last month, and up 40 yuan from the previous day [1] - LME zinc 3M closing price (15:00) was 2829 dollars/ton, up 57 dollars from last week, up 118 dollars from last month, and down 11 dollars from the previous day [1] - LME zinc仓单 inventory was 79550 tons, down 875 tons from the previous day, down 9675 tons from last week, and down 41800 tons from last month [1] Group 7: Lead (PB) - The closing price of SHFE lead (PB)主力 contract was 16915 yuan/ton on August 12, 2025, up 30 yuan from last week, up 140 yuan from last month, and down 15 yuan from the previous day [1] - LME lead 3M closing price (15:00) was 2005.00 dollars/ton, down 5.00 dollars from the previous day, up 37.00 dollars from last week, and up 16.50 dollars from last month [1] - LME lead仓单 inventory was 262250 tons, down 3550 tons from the previous day, down 6350 tons from last week, and down 6975 tons from last month [1] Group 8: Nickel and Stainless Steel (NI, SS) - The closing price of SHFE nickel (NI)主力 contract was 122440 yuan/ton on August 12, 2025, up 1530 yuan from the previous day, up 3060 yuan from last week, and up 310 yuan from last month [1] - The closing price of stainless steel (SS)主力 contract was 13200 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan from the previous day, up 240 yuan from last week, and up 505 yuan from last month [1] - LME nickel 3M closing price (15:00) was 15295 dollars/ton, up 40 dollars from the previous day, up 285 dollars from last week, and up 180 dollars from last month [1] Group 9: Tin (SN) - The closing price of SHFE tin (SN)主力 contract was 270200 yuan/ton on August 12, 2025, up 2710 yuan from the previous day, up 6960 yuan from last week, and up 1820 yuan from last month [1] - LME tin 3M closing price (15:00) was 33790 dollars/ton, up 50 dollars from the previous day, up 440 dollars from last week, and up 480 dollars from last month [1] - LME tin仓单 inventory was - 125 tons, down 230 tons from the previous day, up 1750 tons from last week, and up 40 tons from last month [1]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic precious metal futures are experiencing a decline, while international precious metals are showing an upward trend, indicating a divergence in market sentiment and potential investment opportunities in different regions [1][3]. Group 1: Domestic Market Performance - As of August 12, domestic precious metal futures are all in the red, with the main Shanghai gold contract priced at 777.30 CNY per gram, down 0.96%, and the main Shanghai silver contract at 9213.00 CNY per kilogram, down 0.34% [1]. - The opening price for the main Shanghai gold contract was 777.52 CNY per gram, with a high of 778.78 CNY and a low of 775.62 CNY [2]. Group 2: International Market Performance - In contrast, international precious metals are all in the green, with COMEX gold priced at 3399.30 USD per ounce, up 0.17%, and COMEX silver at 37.94 USD per ounce, up 0.78% [1]. - The opening price for COMEX gold was 3399.60 USD per ounce, reaching a high of 3408.70 USD and a low of 3393.00 USD [2]. Group 3: Market Influences - Recent comments from U.S. President Trump stating "gold will not be taxed" have clarified previous confusion regarding tariffs on gold imports, which had caused a spike in gold prices [3]. - The upcoming U.S. CPI data release is anticipated to provide insights into potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which could influence gold prices positively if inflation is lower than expected [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The rise in US inflation in Q3 is in line with expectations. Under the dual pressure of deteriorating non - farm data and personnel changes, some Fed voting members have turned significantly dovish, and the moderate rise in inflation has limited interference with the interest - rate cut expectations. - The July non - farm data is an important turning point for market sentiment. The dominant logic is shifting from "TACO trading + US fundamental resilience + convergence of interest - rate cut expectations" to "verification of weakening US fundamentals + expansion of interest - rate cut expectations". The Fed's leadership change may bring a more dovish long - term path and a re - evaluation of the Fed's independence. - The report maintains a bullish view on gold. It is expected that the upward trend of spot gold will be moderate below $3500, and the upward momentum may increase after breaking through this level. The movement of silver is following that of gold again, with obvious resistance at the $40 mark, and a breakthrough requires the cooperation of gold [1][3]. 3. Summary by Section Key Information - US Treasury Secretary Besent stated that President Trump's tariff policy aims to bring manufacturing back to the US, and relevant trade work is expected to be basically completed by the end of October. He also hopes that the next Fed Chairman will gain market trust and have "forward - looking thinking". - China National Rare Earth Group issued a statement clarifying that it has never cooperated, negotiated, or planned with relevant institutions or units regarding the so - called "rare - earth RMB stablecoin". The information was maliciously fabricated by lawbreakers. - The short positions in US small - cap stocks have reached the highest level since 2017. The notional value of non - commercial short contracts for the Russell 2000 index futures has exceeded $16 billion this month, and this position has doubled since May and further increased after the latest weak employment data in the US [2]. Price Logic - The decline in precious metal prices yesterday was due to two factors. Firstly, the US clarified the rumor of imposing tariffs on gold last Friday night, and the price difference between COMEX and LBMA gold narrowed significantly, weakening the sentiment in the US market. Secondly, the expected rise in the US CPI in July, with the market consensus expecting a 0.31% month - on - month increase and about 3.1% year - on - year increase in core CPI, and the simultaneous rise of the US dollar index, brought short - term downward pressure on gold prices [3]. Outlook - The expected trading range for London gold this week is between $3340 and $3500 per ounce, and for London silver, it is between $37 and $40 per ounce [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the market's risk - aversion demand has declined due to progress in tariff negotiations and the ECB's reduction of the September interest - rate cut expectation, as well as the Fed's likely on - hold stance in July, which suppresses precious metal prices. However, due to the uncertainty of tariff policies and the Fed's possible rate cut in August, precious metal prices may not continue to fall. Silver may run bearishly in the short - term due to the general decline in commodity sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - In the long - term, against the backdrop of the trade war, the Fed still has a certain probability of cutting interest rates within the year. With global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, the central banks' gold purchases continue, so the long - term center of gravity of gold is likely to continue to move up [3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Price and Spread Information - **Price**: On July 25, 2025, London gold spot was 3358.72, London silver spot was 774.70, AU (T + D) was 3360.30, COMEX silver was 9368.00, AG (T + D) was 773.17, COMEX gold was 9365.00, AU2508 was 39.30, and AG2508 was 39.08. Compared with July 24, the price changes were - 0.2%, - 0.2%, 0.1%, - 0.5%, - 0.1%, - 0.6%, 0.1%, - 0.2% respectively [3]. - **Spread**: On July 25, 2025, the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was - 1.53, the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was 1.95, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was 82.70, and the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 3. Compared with July 24, the spread changes were - 1.3%, - 1.7%, - 0.3%, - 2.1% respectively [3]. 3.2 Position and Inventory Information - **Position**: As of July 25, 2025, COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions, non - commercial short positions, and non - commercial long positions were 15230.42858, 253038, 957.09 respectively; COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions, non - commercial short positions, and non - commercial long positions were 311949, 58911, 85678 respectively. The gold ETF - SPDR position was 25058, and the silver ETF - SLV position was 60620 [3]. - **Inventory**: On July 25, 2025, SHFE silver inventory was 500320749 kg, SHFE gold inventory was 37762394 kg, COMEX silver inventory was 30258.00 ounces, and COMEX gold inventory was 1187254.00 ounces. Compared with July 24, the inventory changes were 0.39%, 0.51%, - 0.12%, 3.07% respectively [3]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Data - The US July Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value dropped to 49.5, the lowest since December 2024 and the first contraction since then, far below the expected 52.7 and the previous value of 62.9. The new orders index preliminary value dropped to 49.7, the lowest since December last year. However, the US July Markit services PMI preliminary value was 5.2, far exceeding expectations and the previous value, and the employment sub - index preliminary value rose to 52.6 [3]. - The US June durable goods orders preliminary month - on - month value was + 9.3%, higher than the expected - 0.7% [3]. 3.4 Other News - Trump said he thought Powell would cut interest rates, had a good talk with Powell about interest rates, and that the economic situation was good [3]. - On July 26, the border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia entered the third day, causing hundreds of casualties [3]. - Trump said he would issue nearly 200 tariff letters with tariff rates of 10% or 15%, was unclear about the prospects of a US - EU agreement, and might impose tariffs on Canada directly. He also said more fine - tuning would be done on the US - UK trade agreement, but there was little room for negotiation on steel and aluminum [3]. 3.5 Market Performance - On July 25, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.88% to 777.32 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.31% to 9392 yuan/kg [3].

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年7月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：短期继续看回落；白银：上行空间基本饱和 强弱分析：黄金偏弱、白银中性 价格区间：760-780元/克、8800-9400元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回落-0.35%，伦敦银回升1.22%。金银比从前周的87.5回落至86.3，10年期TIPS回落至1.96%，10年期名义利率回升至4.4% （2年期3.91%），美元指数录得97.6。 ◆ 本周黄金出现明显回落，外盘触及到3451美元/盎司后震荡下行，符合我们前期"黄金年内高点已现，3400-3500区间内可择机做空"的 观点。本周关税政策陆续敲定，美国对日本确定15%的"对等关税"，而日本则需要向美国投资5500亿美元并 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the price of London gold rose by 2.86%, while London silver fell by -0.3%. The gold-silver ratio increased from 91.4 to 95.2, the 10-year TIPS fell to 2.13%, the 10-year nominal interest rate rose to 4.41% (2-year 3.96%), and the US dollar index was 98.1 [3]. - The conflict between Iran and Israel this week was the main disturbance in the precious metals market. The report maintains its view on gold, stating that as an asset with a long - term upward trend, once there is a new driver, long - term funds are more likely to re - enter the gold market and raise the bottom support [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Positions) 3.1.1 Overseas Spot - Futures Price Spreads - For gold, this week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to -19.25 US dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was -20 US dollars per ounce [8][9]. - For silver, this week, the spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 widened again to -0.079 US dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was -0.095 US dollars per ounce [8][12]. 3.1.2 Domestic Spot - Futures Price Spreads - This week, the gold spot - futures price spread was -3.5 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [16]. - This week, the silver spot - futures price spread was 2 yuan per gram, also at the lower end of the historical range [18][19]. 3.1.3 Monthly Spreads - This week, the gold monthly spread was 4.22 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [22]. - This week, the silver monthly spread was 36 yuan per kilogram, at the lower end of the historical range [26]. 3.1.4 Cross - Month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Costs - For gold, the total cross - month positive arbitrage delivery cost of buying TD and selling SHFE gold was 11.38 yuan per gram; the total cost of buying SHFE gold December contract and selling June contract was 15.45 yuan per gram [29][30]. - For silver, the total cross - month positive arbitrage delivery cost of buying TD and selling SHFE silver was 133.26 yuan per kilogram; the total cost of buying SHFE silver December contract and selling June contract was -95.90 yuan per kilogram [31][32]. 3.1.5 Deferred Fee Payment Directions of SGE Spot Gold and Silver - This week, the SGE gold deferred fee was mainly paid from longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power; the silver deferred fee was mainly paid from shorts to longs, indicating strong receiving power [33]. 3.1.6 Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratios - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.33 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio fell to 54.3%. The COMEX silver inventory increased by 3.74 million ounces to 494.72 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 32.5%. The gold futures inventory increased by 330 tons, and the silver futures inventory increased by 92.1 tons to 1210 tons [35][37][39]. 3.1.7 CFTC Non - Commercial Positions - This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold slightly increased, and the non - commercial net long position of silver also slightly increased [41]. 3.1.8 ETF Positions - This week, the gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 4.85 tons, and the silver SLV ETF inventory increased by 56.55 tons [46][48]. 3.1.9 Gold - Silver Ratio - This week, the gold - silver ratio fell from 91.4 to 95.2 [50]. 3.1.10 COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rates - This week, the 1M gold lease rate was 0.2%, and the 1M silver lease rate was 4.8% [53]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold 3.2.1 Gold and Real Interest Rates - This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline [58]. 3.2.2 Other Macroeconomic Indicators - The report also presented data on inflation, retail sales, non - farm employment, industrial manufacturing cycles, financial conditions, economic surprise indices, inflation surprise indices, and the Fed's interest rate cut probability, but no specific core views were summarized for these aspects in the text [63][66][71][74][75].