Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as "Positive" for 2024 [4] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry is expected to see profit improvement in 2024, with the characteristic of "resource supremacy" becoming more pronounced. Supply from the mining sector remains rigid, while companies are cautious with capital expenditures amid increasing macroeconomic volatility and export policy restrictions from various countries, leading to enhanced supply constraints. The demand side shows a fragmented demand landscape under the backdrop of de-globalization, with re-industrialization in Europe and the US and economic growth in emerging markets being the main demand drivers. Revenue and net profit for the non-ferrous sector are projected to grow slightly, indicating a gradual improvement in industry prosperity. Resource-based companies, particularly in copper, gold, aluminum, tin, and tungsten, are expected to perform better, with a growing focus on resource scarcity and strategic importance [19][22][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector is projected to achieve a revenue of CNY 3.47 trillion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.86%, and a net profit of CNY 138.41 billion, reflecting a slight increase of 1.77% [22][26]. 2. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that industrial metals experienced significant price fluctuations due to US trade tariffs in early April, but prices have since rebounded as negotiations exceeded market expectations. Small metals continue to perform well, with tungsten prices reaching new highs amid strengthened domestic export controls [20][21]. 3. Policy Changes - Domestic measures to tighten resource export controls have been noted, alongside international collaborations for mineral investment and development. Key actions include China's crackdown on strategic mineral smuggling, Australia's commitment to establishing strategic reserves for critical minerals, and various agreements between countries to enhance mining cooperation [20][21]. 4. Company Performance - Chinese listed copper companies have shown a significant increase in resource and reserve volumes, with a 27% year-on-year increase in resource volume and a 25% increase in reserves. Notable companies like Zijin Mining and Minmetals Resources have made substantial acquisitions and exploration investments to secure resource safety [22][28][32].

证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 发布时间：2025-05-26 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业相对指数表现 2024-05 2024-07 2024-10 2024-12 2025-02 2025-05 -24% -20% -16% -12% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《关税预期缓解，黄金或迎底部做多 时机》 - 2025.05.06 有色金属行业报告 （2025.05.19-2025.05.24） 黄金上行开始，持续关注黄金股投资机会 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 4695.15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 ...

Group 1 - The market is expected to continue its fluctuations in the medium term, with accelerated style rotation, supported by monetary policy easing and strong export performance [1] - China's export focus has successfully shifted towards ASEAN and EU markets, leading to stable export growth despite basic economic downward expectations [1] - The market may experience a rotation pattern of "risk aversion - consumption - growth" in May [1] Group 2 - A-share market is experiencing accelerated rotation, with a rebound in financing activity and a shift towards small and mid-cap growth stocks [2] - The combination of policies aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations supports risk appetite, while structural market conditions are expected to prevail [2] - Key internal certainty clues include potential benefits for large-cap stocks and public utilities from new public fund regulations, and opportunities in sectors like military electronics and renewable energy equipment [2] Group 3 - Strategic metals are likely to undergo a value reassessment due to increased export control measures and the importance of these resources in the current international political context [3] - The crackdown on smuggling and export of strategic minerals is deemed urgent and significant for national security and development interests [3] - Prices of strategic metals such as rare earths, tungsten, and antimony are expected to rise, indicating a potential investment opportunity in the strategic metals sector [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. Core Viewpoints - China's response to U.S. tariffs includes a 34% additional tariff on all imports from the U.S. starting April 10, 2025, and export controls on certain rare earth elements [5]. - The precious metals market is experiencing increased volatility due to U.S. tariff announcements, with gold prices rising by 2.5% in the domestic market [5]. - Industrial metals are facing downward price pressure, particularly copper, which has seen a price drop of 2.0% on the SHFE and 9.8% on the LME [5]. - The report highlights a potential long-term bullish trend for precious metals, especially gold, due to declining real interest rates [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review - Precious Metals: Gold prices have decreased, while ETF holdings have increased, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange closing at 739 CNY per gram, a weekly change of 2.5% [10]. - Industrial Metals: Prices are predominantly declining, with SHFE copper down 2.0% and LME copper down 9.8% [27]. - Rare Earths & Tungsten: Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides have increased, indicating a recovery in manufacturing demand [5]. - Energy Metals: Lithium carbonate prices have decreased, with a focus on future demand growth [5]. 2. Market Performance - The report notes significant price changes across various metals, with copper and aluminum both experiencing declines [28]. - The SHFE copper price is reported at 78,860 CNY per ton, reflecting a 2.0% weekly decrease [29]. - Aluminum prices have also dropped, with SHFE aluminum at 20,420 CNY per ton, down 0.8% [43]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a favorable outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in precious metals and industrial metals, with specific stock recommendations provided [6]. - For precious metals, companies like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold are recommended due to their potential for growth [6]. - In industrial metals, companies such as Zijin Mining and China Hongqiao are highlighted for their resilience and growth potential [6].