1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price is mainly influenced by macro - factors, showing a high - level range - bound and strong trend. With the approaching of the peak season, the demand is expected to increase, and the copper price may have an upward space [3]. - The aluminum market is affected by factors such as the rainy season in Guinea, changes in alumina production capacity, and demand recovery. It is recommended to go long on aluminum at low prices and stay on the sidelines for alumina [3]. - The zinc market has sufficient supply and weak demand recovery. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. - The lead price is in a short - term weak and range - bound situation, and it is recommended to go long at low prices within the range [3]. - The nickel market is in a long - term supply surplus situation. It is recommended to hold short positions moderately at high prices, and conduct range trading for stainless steel [4]. - The tin market has limited supply improvement and weak demand in the off - season. It is recommended to conduct range trading and pay attention to supply and demand changes [4]. - The industrial silicon market has high risks before the release of the photovoltaic conference results. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [4]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a wide - range fluctuation. It is recommended to trade carefully and pay attention to upstream production reduction and downstream production scheduling [4]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - **8/25 - 8/31 Economic Data**: The US economic data is mixed, with some indicators better than expected and some worse. For example, the US 7 - month Chicago Fed National Activity Index was - 0.19, worse than the forecast of - 0.11; the 7 - month durable goods orders had a month - on - month initial value of - 2.8%, better than the forecast of - 3.80% [11]. - **Policies and Events**: The State Council issued the "Opinions on Deeply Implementing the 'Artificial Intelligence +' Action", aiming to promote the integration of AI in multiple fields. Trump removed the Fed governor, which may affect the Fed's independence [12][14]. - **9/1 - 9/7 Forecast Data**: Forecasts for economic data such as China's and the euro - zone's PMIs, and US employment data are provided, but the actual values are not given [17]. 3.2 Copper - **Price Trend**: The copper price is in a high - level range - bound and strong trend, with a short - term operating range of 78,500 - 80,500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic market supply has increased, while downstream replenishment is cautious. The apparent consumption shows the resilience of demand [3]. - **Inventory**: LME and US COMEX copper inventories are increasing, while the domestic inventory is relatively stable [3]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Price Trend**: The aluminum price is in a high - level range - bound and upward - trending state. The short - term operating range of Shanghai aluminum is 20,500 - 20,950 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of bauxite is affected by the rainy season in Guinea. Alumina production capacity has decreased slightly, while electrolytic aluminum production capacity has increased steadily. The downstream demand is gradually recovering [3]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased [3]. 3.4 Zinc - **Price Trend**: The zinc price is in a weak - range - bound state, with a reference operating range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of zinc concentrates is abundant, and the production of refined zinc is high. The downstream consumption recovery is not significant, and enterprises mainly make rigid purchases [3]. - **Inventory**: As of August 28, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 144,500 tons, an increase of 11,600 tons from August 21 [3]. 3.5 Lead - **Price Trend**: The lead price is in a short - term weak - range - bound state, with an operating range of 16,500 - 17,200 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The LME and COMEX lead inventories have decreased, while the SHFE lead inventory has increased. The downstream lead consumption is insufficient, and the market is sensitive to price changes [3]. 3.6 Nickel - **Price Trend**: The nickel price is in a range - bound state in the short - term, with a reference operating range of 119,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton. The stainless steel price is in a weak - range - bound state, with a reference operating range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of nickel ore is relatively abundant, and the nickel market is in a surplus state. The demand for nickel iron has certain support, and the downstream of stainless steel mainly makes rigid purchases [4]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly [4]. 3.7 Tin - **Price Trend**: The tin price is in a range - bound state, with a reference operating range of 260,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 10 contract [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand in the off - season is weak. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover gradually [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of domestic and foreign exchanges and domestic social inventories are at a medium level and have increased [4]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon - **Price Trend**: The industrial silicon price is in a wide - range - bound state, with a reference operating range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of industrial silicon has increased, and the production of polysilicon has also increased. The production of organic silicon has decreased [4]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory of industrial silicon has decreased, while the three - port inventory has remained flat [4]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: The lithium carbonate price is in a wide - range - bound state, and it is recommended to trade carefully [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is affected by mining license issues, and the demand for energy storage terminals is good [4]. - **Inventory**: No specific inventory information is provided [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand situation of lead remains weak, with no obvious signs of peak - season demand. The concentrate market is tight even with smelter maintenance plans, and TC prices are continuously falling. There are no significant fundamental factors to boost lead prices, but macro factors like rising interest - rate cut expectations are favorable for the non - ferrous metals sector, limiting the downside of lead prices. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [4] Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On August 28, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 41.93 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price remained unchanged at 16,775 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 16,775 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap spread remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton, the price of scrap electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,100 yuan/ton, the price of scrap white shells remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap black shells remained unchanged at 10,450 yuan/ton [2] - The SMM1 lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, suppliers quoted a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead average price or a discount of 100 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509/2510 contracts; in Hunan, branded lead smelters quoted a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price, and some suppliers quoted a discount of 180 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2510 contract; in Anhui and Jiangxi, suppliers quoted a premium of 50 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead price [3] Futures Market - On August 28, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,885 yuan/ton, closed at 16,910 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 34,152 lots, a decrease of 15,274 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 49,909 lots, a decrease of 6 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,925 yuan/ton and a low of 16,850 yuan/ton. In the night session, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,880 yuan/ton, closed at 16,840 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous day [2] Inventory - On August 28, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 67,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week. As of August 28, the LME lead inventory was 262,500 tons, a decrease of 4,975 tons from the previous trading day [2][3] Strategy - The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide strangle [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market risk preference remains high despite the poor domestic economic and financial data. In August, there may be a small accumulation of inventory under the full - supply pattern, but the market may focus more on the tight - balance pattern after the off - season [1]. - For aluminum, supply increases slightly, demand is in the seasonal off - season in August with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages. There is an expected small inventory accumulation in August. Attention should be paid to demand in the short - term and potential arbitrage opportunities in the low - inventory situation [2]. - Zinc prices fluctuate widely. Supply increases, demand is seasonally weak but has some resilience. Domestic social inventory rises, and overseas LME inventory decreases rapidly. Short - term prices may rebound, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended, while a short - position configuration is suggested in the medium - to - long - term. Positive arbitrage opportunities can be considered [5]. - For nickel, supply remains at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory remains stable. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [6]. - Stainless steel has a weak fundamental situation. Some steel mills cut production passively, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs remain stable, and inventory decreases slightly. Attention should be paid to policy trends [6]. - Lead prices fluctuate. Supply has issues such as low scrap battery supply and low profit - driven low production. Demand shows a "not - prosperous peak season" situation. Inventory is expected to remain at a high level, and prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation next week [8]. - Tin prices fluctuate widely. Supply is affected by factors such as low processing fees and potential production resumptions. Demand has a peak - season expectation in the terminal electronics sector but a strong expectation of a decline in photovoltaic growth. A wait - and - see approach is recommended in the short - term, and long - position holding near the cost line is suggested in the medium - to - long - term [11]. - The production of industrial silicon resumes at a slow pace. The current supply - demand balance shows a small inventory reduction. In the short - term, the supply - demand situation may remain tight, while in the medium - to - long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [14]. - Carbonate lithium prices fluctuate on the futures market due to supply - side disturbances. Spot trading is active during the peak season. The core contradiction lies in the long - term over - supply situation and short - term supply - side compliance disturbances. The price has large upward and downward elasticities [16]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the spot price of Shanghai copper increased by 50, the warehouse receipt decreased by 55, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1850 [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The market risk preference continues to rise. The downstream orders are supported at around 7.8. The copper rod production rate shows resilience at the end of the off - season, and the substitution effect between refined and scrap copper is obvious. The scrap copper market is disturbed by policies, and there may be a small inventory accumulation in August [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 110, the domestic alumina price decreased by 7, and the import alumina price decreased by 50. The inventory remained unchanged [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increases slightly, demand is in the seasonal off - season in August with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages. The export of aluminum products improves, but photovoltaic demand and overseas demand decline. There is an expected small inventory accumulation in August [2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 140, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the overseas LME inventory decreased by 2025 [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increases as the smelting increment is further realized in August and the zinc ore import in July reaches a three - year high. Demand is seasonally weak but has some resilience. Domestic social inventory rises, and overseas LME inventory decreases rapidly [5]. - **Strategy**: Short - term prices may rebound, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended. A short - position configuration is suggested in the medium - to - long - term. Positive arbitrage opportunities can be considered [5]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 1450, and the inventory of LME increased by 456 [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply remains at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory remains stable [6]. - **Strategy**: Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the prices of 304 cold - rolled coils and other products remained mostly unchanged, and the inventory in Xifu decreased slightly [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Some steel mills cut production passively, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs remain stable, and inventory decreases slightly [6]. - **Strategy**: Attention should be paid to policy trends [6]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the spot premium increased by 10, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the overseas LME inventory decreased by 4975 [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has issues such as low scrap battery supply and low profit - driven low production. Demand shows a "not - prosperous peak season" situation. Inventory is expected to remain at a high level [8]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation next week [8]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the spot import profit decreased by 1094.76, and the inventory of LME decreased by 30 [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is affected by factors such as low processing fees and potential production resumptions. Demand has a peak - season expectation in the terminal electronics sector but a strong expectation of a decline in photovoltaic growth [11]. - **Strategy**: A wait - and - see approach is recommended in the short - term, and long - position holding near the cost line is suggested in the medium - to - long - term [11]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 45, and the warehouse receipt decreased by 53 [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production resumes at a slow pace. The current supply - demand balance shows a small inventory reduction. The supply - demand situation may remain tight in the short - term, while prices are expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom in the medium - to - long - term [14]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the SMM electric carbonate price decreased by 1600, and the warehouse receipt increased by 1480 [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: The futures market fluctuates due to supply - side disturbances. Spot trading is active during the peak season. The core contradiction lies in the long - term over - supply situation and short - term supply - side compliance disturbances [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core View of the Report - The supply - demand situation of the lead market remains weak, with no obvious signs of peak - season demand. The concentrate market is tight even with smelter maintenance plans, and TC prices are dropping. There are no significant fundamental factors to boost lead prices, but macro factors like rising interest - rate cut expectations are favorable for the non - ferrous sector, limiting the downside of lead prices. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On August 25, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 33.79 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 15.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap spread remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, 10,125 yuan/ton, and 10,450 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Futures Market**: On August 25, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,790 yuan/ton and closed at 16,845 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,202 lots, an increase of 18,257 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 27,975 lots, a decrease of 13,190 lots. During the day, the price fluctuated between 16,755 yuan/ton and 16,895 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,840 yuan/ton and closed at 16,875 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the afternoon close [1] - **Inventory**: On August 25, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 68,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the previous week. As of August 25, the LME lead inventory was 273,050 tons, a decrease of 6,550 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The investment strategy for the lead market is neutral. The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has strengthened, and non - ferrous metals as a whole are fluctuating strongly. [1] - Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different trends. Copper is expected to be volatile with potential upward space; aluminum is in an upward trend with shock adjustments; zinc is oscillating within a range; and other metals also have their own characteristics and corresponding investment suggestions. [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Main Variety Views Copper - The copper price remained horizontal this week, and the price fluctuation further converged. Powell's dovish speech will boost the copper price. The domestic anti - involution policy continues to deepen, and the relevant varieties are supported. - The domestic copper inventory increased slightly this week but remained at a low level overall. The LME copper inventory increased, the Shanghai - London ratio stopped falling and stabilized, and the copper import profit turned positive. - The downstream consumption has not reached an inflection point, the spot premium has declined, but the decline in copper price has promoted the downstream enterprises' demand for replenishing inventory at low prices. - The copper price is still prone to fluctuations. Considering the subsequent peak - season demand and the high - maintenance expectation in September and October, the market will remain strong. The short - term operating range of Shanghai copper is 78,500 - 79,500 yuan/ton. [3] Aluminum - The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore increased by $0.4 per dry ton to $74.5 per dry ton. The rainy season in Guinea has affected the mining and transportation of bauxite, and the bauxite shipment volume has shown a downward trend. - The operating capacity of alumina decreased by 250,000 tons to 95.7 million tons week - on - week, and the national alumina inventory increased by 48,000 tons to 3.423 million tons week - on - week. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased steadily, with a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons to 44.319 million tons. The domestic downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate increased by 0.5% to 60% week - on - week. - The overall idea is to go long on dips. [3] Zinc - The zinc price was weakly volatile last week. The supply of zinc concentrates remained loose, and the domestic zinc ore processing fee remained flat last week, while the imported zinc ore processing fee continued to rise month - on - month. - The domestic off - season characteristics are obvious, and downstream enterprises maintain rigid demand procurement with a relatively limited quantity. - As of August 21, the total inventory of SMM's seven - place zinc ingots was 132,900 tons, an increase of 3,700 tons compared with August 14, and the inventory was close to the annual high. - It is expected that the Shanghai zinc will be weakly volatile, and the reference operating range of the main contract is 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton. [3] Other Metals - For lead, nickel, tin, industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and lithium carbonate, each has its own supply, demand, and inventory situation, and corresponding investment suggestions are given, such as trading within the range, going long on dips, or short - term trading. [3][4] Macroeconomic Data This Week's Macroeconomic Data - The US July new - home starts increased by 5.2% month - on - month, with a forecast of - 1.8% and a previous value of 5.9%. - China's August five - year and one - year loan market quoted interest rates (LPR) remained unchanged at 3.5% and 3% respectively. - The eurozone's July core harmonized CPI year - on - year final value was 2.3%, in line with the forecast and the previous value. [14] Next Week's Macroeconomic Data Calendar - A series of economic data such as the US July Chicago Fed National Activity Index, the US August Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, and China's July industrial enterprise profits above designated size will be released next week. [22] Market Trends and Key Data Tracking of Each Metal - Each metal has content on market trends (such as daily and monthly line charts) and key data tracking (such as inventory, spot premium, and forward curve). For example, copper has information on LME copper inventory, COMEX institutional positions, and Shanghai copper's inter - period spread curve; aluminum has data on electrolytic aluminum social inventory, alumina port inventory, etc. [26][45][63]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead continues to be flat, demand is gradually rising, and combined with the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, it is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,775 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 1,981 US dollars/ton, down 9 US dollars [2] - The price difference between the 09 - 10 contracts of Shanghai lead is - 5 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 93,535 lots, down 5,792 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 2,093 lots, up 672 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 62,225 tons, up 441 tons [2] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 64,844 tons, up 2,510 tons; the LME lead inventory is 261,100 tons, down 575 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,675 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,840 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the lead main contract is - 100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 43.24 US dollars/ton, down 2.37 US dollars [2] - The price of lead concentrate 50% - 60% in Jiyuan is 16,104 yuan, down 50 yuan; the price of domestic secondary lead (≥98.5%) is 16,660 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead is - 18,700 tons, up 7,100 tons; the number of secondary lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged [2] - The capacity utilization rate of secondary lead is 34.15%, down 0.8%; the monthly output of secondary lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons [2] - The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 73.25%, down 2.4%; the weekly output of primary lead is 35,300 tons, up 1,500 tons [2] - The processing fee of lead concentrate 60% at major ports is - 70 US dollars/kiloton, down 10 US dollars; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons [2] - The global lead ore output of ILZSG is 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons; the monthly import volume of lead ore is 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The monthly export volume of refined lead is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average market price of waste batteries is 10,112.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41,450,000, down 425,000; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 19,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources is 1,988.81 points, up 63.07 points; the monthly automobile output is 2,808,600, up 166,600 [2] - The monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,647,000, up 73,000 [2] 3.6 Industry News - Trump and Putin's meeting was considered constructive, and there is a high possibility of reaching an agreement on important aspects; the next meeting may be in Moscow [2] - Trump said progress has been made on the Russian issue and suggested Zelensky reach an agreement; the US envoy said Putin agreed to Ukraine's "NATO - like Article 5" security guarantee [2] - Zelensky will meet with Trump in Washington; European leaders will participate in the "Trump - Zelensky meeting"; sanctions against Russia will continue to be strengthened [2] - Trump will determine steel and chip tariffs in the next two weeks, and semiconductor tariffs may reach 300%; the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports will be expanded [2] 3.7 View Summary - The production of primary lead fluctuates slightly; the supply of secondary lead shows regional differences, and the overall supply side is tight [2] - The demand for lead is mainly concentrated in lead - acid batteries. Approaching the traditional peak season, the actual demand has not increased significantly and is still in a slow recovery stage [2] - The inventory has declined slightly recently, and there is a possibility of demand improvement. The overall demand is expected to gradually strengthen, which will support the lead price [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industry investment rating is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, failing to exhibit the characteristics of the traditional peak - demand season. The lead price is expected to remain in a volatile range of 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,150 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogues Spot Market - On August 12, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$35.50/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to -35.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16,825 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10,200 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells changed by 50 yuan/ton to 10,150 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10,475 yuan/ton [1] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price dropped by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The domestic lead futures were weakly volatile. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. In Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price had difficulty in closing deals, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. Smelters in Anhui and Jiangxi with low inventories quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex - factory sales. In Guangdong, holders' ex - factory supplies were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price [2] Futures Market - On August 12, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,855 yuan/ton and closed at 16,915 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 29,986 lots, a change of -5,637 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the position was 51,223 lots, a change of -3,172 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price was volatile, with a high of 16,980 yuan/ton and a low of 16,855 yuan/ton. In the night session, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,940 yuan/ton and closed at 16,960 yuan/ton, a 0.24% increase from the afternoon close [1] Inventory - On August 12, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 70,000 tons, a change of -1,100 tons compared to the same period last week. As of August 12, the LME lead inventory was 262,250 tons, a change of -2,575 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The lead price is expected to remain volatile, with a recommended option strategy of selling a wide - straddle [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [3] - Arbitrage: On hold [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The seasonal demand for lead during the peak season is not evident, and domestic inventories have not started to decline. However, the battery and terminal industries are in the transition phase between the off - season and peak season. Although the terminal consumption has not fully recovered, the seasonal stocking demand in the electric bicycle sector has laid the foundation for the traditional peak season in August. Therefore, it is advisable to gradually attempt to buy on dips for hedging, with the hedging purchase range between 16,000 yuan/ton and 16,300 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On August 5, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$47.86/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton. The lead scrap - refined spread remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,200 yuan/ton, the price of waste white - shell batteries remained unchanged at 10,100 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black - shell batteries remained unchanged at 10,450 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Market**: On August 5, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,750 yuan/ton and closed at 16,775 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 40,133 lots, a decrease of 6,065 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 72,083 lots, an increase of 753 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,805 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,650 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,750 yuan/ton and closed at 16,755 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the afternoon close [1] - **Inventory**: On August 5, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 72,000 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from the same period last week. As of August 5, the LME lead inventory was 272,975 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from the previous trading day [2] Supply and Demand Situation - The SMM1 lead price dropped by 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, suppliers offered discounts of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price or 100 - 50 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract, with some offering a 120 - yuan/ton discount. In Hunan, smelters offered at par with the SMM1 lead price, and traders offered discounts of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price or 100 - 80 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract. In Jiangxi, suppliers offered a 30 - yuan/ton discount to the SHFE lead 2509 contract. Due to the weakening of lead prices, downstream buyers were hesitant to purchase due to fear of price drops and mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. The discount of suppliers' quotes narrowed, and the trading volume in some regions improved compared to the previous day [2]

General Information - Report Date: 2025-07-08 [23][38] - Analysts: Wang Yuwu, Feng Fan, Shi Cheng, Chen Sijie [38][39] Investment Rating - Absolute Price: Cautiously Bullish [3] - Option Strategy: Sell Put [4] Core View - The lead price is temporarily in a volatile pattern due to limited downstream purchasing enthusiasm. The domestic mine supply is relatively tight, and the smelters' willingness to purchase high-silver mines is low. The energy storage battery sector performs prominently, and the industry is optimistic about the second half of the year. Other battery sectors also see a gradual increase in the operating rate [1][3]. Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On July 7, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$24.63/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -55 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,025 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate waste price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton. The waste electric vehicle battery price remained unchanged at 10,300 yuan/ton. The waste white shell price remained unchanged at 10,175 yuan/ton. The waste black shell price remained unchanged at 10,525 yuan/ton [1]. Futures Market - On July 7, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,315 yuan/ton, closed at 17,210 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 29,406 lots, an increase of 5,076 lots from the previous trading day. The position was 51,045 lots, a decrease of 627 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,315 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,155 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,180 yuan/ton, closed at 17,110 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the afternoon closing price [1]. Inventory - On July 7, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 58,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 259,975 tons, a decrease of 2,625 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Strategy Absolute Price Strategy - It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging [3]. Option Strategy - Sell put options [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The loss of secondary lead smelters is being repaired. Some smelters have the intention to resume production. The price is expected to be boosted by the consumption peak - season, but the actual restocking in the real - world is relatively for essential needs. In the medium - term, the price of lead is expected to be strong as the supply - demand contradiction may be significant in the third quarter [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of Shanghai Lead Main Contract last week was 17,295 yuan, with a weekly increase of 0.99%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,225 yuan, with a decrease of 0.40%. LmeS - Lead3 had a closing price of 1,988.5 dollars last week, with a decrease of 2.60%. The LME lead spot premium (0 - 3) was - 24.63 dollars last Friday, a decrease of 2.49 dollars compared to the previous week. The near - month to continuous - first contract spread was - 55 yuan last Friday, a decrease of 5 yuan compared to the previous week [7]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Lead warehouse receipt inventory last week was 46,439 tons, an increase of 554 tons compared to the previous week. The total Shanghai Lead inventory was 53,303 tons, an increase of 1,374 tons. The social inventory was 56,900 tons, an increase of 900 tons. The LME lead inventory was 263,275 tons, a decrease of 10,150 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.59%, a decrease of 0.26% [7]. - **Transaction and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Lead Main Contract last week was 24,330 lots, a decrease of 16,320 lots compared to the previous week. The position was 51,672 lots, a decrease of 128 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead3 was 3,570 lots, a decrease of 1,901 lots, and the position was 151,720 lots, an increase of 614 lots [7]. 3.2 Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Scrap Batteries, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The import volume, production, inventory, and processing fees of lead concentrate are presented in the report. The import volume of lead concentrate shows different trends over the years. The domestic lead concentrate production also has its own characteristics. The inventory of lead concentrate in Lianyungang and the processing fees (domestic and imported) are also included [24][25]. - **Primary and Secondary Lead**: In the primary lead sector, smelters in Yunnan and other places are under maintenance. In the secondary lead sector, the supply of scrap batteries is limited due to the off - season of replacement consumption. The price of scrap batteries has risen, and the secondary lead price has been more significantly boosted, with the loss being repaired. Some smelters are willing to resume production. The production and operating rates of primary lead, secondary lead, and their combined production are also analyzed [6][26]. - **Scrap Batteries**: The price of scrap batteries has increased. The supply is limited due to the off - season of replacement consumption, and recyclers are reluctant to sell their stocks [6]. 3.3 Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users) - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: There is an expectation of a consumption peak - season for lead - acid batteries. The operating rate of lead - acid batteries shows different trends over the years. The inventory days of finished products for lead - acid battery enterprises and dealers are also presented [5][6][32]. - **End - Users**: The production of automobiles and motorcycles is used as an indicator to reflect the end - user demand for lead. The actual consumption of lead also shows different trends over the years [34].