Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The overall supply of Shanghai lead has declined, which provides some support for prices. However, the price of Shanghai lead continues to decline under the influence of weakening demand. Affected by the diminishing marginal effect of national subsidies, domestic inventories have increased slightly, while overseas inventories remain high, putting significant pressure on lead prices. Technically, it is currently in a consolidation structure, and it is expected to continue consolidating for some time. It is recommended to go short on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quotation was 1,988 US dollars/ton, an increase of 14 US dollars [2]. - The price difference between the 07 - 08 month contracts of Shanghai lead was 5 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead was 80,384 lots, a decrease of 6,808 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 1,179 lots, a decrease of 2,189 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 42,198 tons, an increase of 399 tons [2]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 47,936 tons, an increase of 1,436 tons; the LME lead inventory was 279,975 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,625 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,830 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan [2]. - The basis of the lead main contract was - 220 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 27.95 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.97 US dollars [2]. - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 15,796 yuan, an increase of 92 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,570 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead was - 18,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons; the number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 51.28%, a decrease of 3.13 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead was 224,200 tons, a decrease of 67,500 tons [2]. - The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 70.88%, an increase of 0.31 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 35,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons [2]. - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports was - 30 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16,400 tons, an increase of 48,800 tons [2]. - The global lead ore output was 399,700 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons; the monthly lead ore import volume was 119,700 tons, an increase of 24,800 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, a decrease of 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 720 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The monthly refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, an increase of 223.33 tons; the average price of waste batteries in the market was 10,073.21 yuan/ton, an increase of 23.21 yuan [2]. 下游情况 - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41,450,000, a decrease of 425,000; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 20,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The Shenwan industry index of batteries was 1,690.34 points, a decrease of 4.16 points; the monthly automobile output was 2.604 million, a decrease of 440,600 [2]. - The monthly new energy vehicle output was 1.647 million, an increase of 73,000 [2]. 行业消息 - India and the US are expected to reach a temporary trade agreement by the end of the month, and the US and Mexico are close to reaching an agreement on steel import tariffs [2]. - Trump said the Los Angeles riot was a "foreign invasion", and a US judge rejected California's request to immediately stop the Trump administration from sending troops to the state [2]. - The White House denied that Treasury Secretary Bessent was the candidate for the next Fed chairman [2]. - The EU's 18th round of sanctions against Russia proposed to lower the price cap of Russian oil to 45 US dollars, and Putin announced the extension of counter - measures [2]. - The Russian ambassador to the US said that a new round of Russia - US talks will be held in Moscow soon [2]. - Five countries including the UK announced sanctions against two far - right Israeli ministers [2]. - The UK's employment in May had the largest decline since 2020, and traders fully priced in two more interest rate cuts by the Bank of England this year [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the lead industry is neutral [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand in the short - term, with lead prices undergoing narrow adjustments. The deep losses of secondary lead smelters, marginal reduction in supply, and the inversion of refined - scrap lead prices limit the downside of lead prices. Weak replacement consumption also restricts the short - term upward momentum. In the medium - to long - term, there is a good risk - reward ratio for long positions, and future strengthening of consumption is expected to provide support. Attention should be paid to whether there is a mid - year sales rush in June and the strength of consumption during the peak season in the third quarter [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Trading Volume, Open Interest) - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract last week was 16,780 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.96%. The night - session closing price was 16,710 yuan/ton, with a night - session decline of 0.42%. The closing price of LmeS - Lead 3 last week was 1,978.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.74%. The LME lead cash - to - 3 - month spread was - 26.98 dollars/ton last Friday, a decrease of 2.72 dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The spread between secondary lead and primary lead was 25 yuan/ton last Friday, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [8] - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Lead warehouse receipt inventory last week was 41,799 tons, an increase of 2,380 tons compared to the previous week. The total Shanghai Lead inventory was 47,936 tons, an increase of 1,436 tons compared to the previous week. The social inventory was 53,900 tons, an increase of 4,500 tons compared to the previous week. The LME lead inventory was 281,275 tons, a decrease of 4,900 tons compared to the previous week, and the ratio of cancelled warrants was 16.00%, a decrease of 2.33 percentage points compared to the previous week [8] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract last Friday was 30,853 lots, a decrease of 22,078 lots compared to the previous week. The open interest was 49,975 lots, a decrease of 3,355 lots compared to the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 was 4,570 lots, a decrease of 2,201 lots compared to the previous week. The open interest was 147,151 lots, an increase of 2,190 lots compared to the previous week [8] 3.2 Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Scrap Batteries, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The import volume of lead concentrate shows certain fluctuations over the years. The inventory of lead concentrate in Lianyungang also fluctuates. The domestic lead concentrate treatment charge (TC) was 600 yuan/ton last week, unchanged from the previous week. The import lead concentrate TC decreased by 10 dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The profit of imported lead concentrate and domestic lead concentrate also shows different trends [26][27] - **Primary Lead and Secondary Lead**: The production and weekly operating rates of primary lead and secondary lead show different trends over time. Currently, the secondary lead is in a state of significant losses, and the operating rate has been further adjusted downwards. The prices of scrap batteries have been suppressed by negative feedback from demand [7][28][30] 3.3 Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users) - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The export volume of lead - acid batteries, operating rates, and finished - product inventory days of battery enterprises and terminal distributors all show different trends over the years. Currently, the lead - acid battery industry is in the off - season, and the finished - product inventory of battery enterprises and terminal distributors is difficult to deplete. The downstream feedback indicates that consumption is moderately weaker than in previous years, and the operating rate is under pressure, resulting in limited procurement of lead ingots by downstream enterprises [7][34] - **End - Users**: The production of automobiles and motorcycles shows certain trends over the years, which also affects the actual consumption of lead [35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of Shanghai lead has declined, which provides some support for prices. However, the price of Shanghai lead continues to decline under the influence of weakening demand. Although the inventory has decreased, the overseas inventory remains high, putting significant pressure on lead prices. Attention should be paid to the new impacts brought by changes in tariff policies. Technically, it is currently in a triangular consolidation structure, with a slight rebound today. Short - term long positions can be considered, while medium - to long - term short positions are recommended on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,670 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quotation is 1,981 dollars/ton, up 17 dollars. The 07 - 08 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is 0 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The Shanghai lead open interest is 90,698 lots, up 4,827 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 1,338 lots, up 236 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 40,316 tons, up 897 tons. The SHFE inventory is 46,500 tons, down 1,928 tons; the LME lead inventory is 284,150 tons, down 2,025 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,425 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,580 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract is - 245 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 22.17 dollars/ton, up 2.09 dollars. The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 15,704 yuan, down 241 yuan. The price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,420 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead is - 18,700 tons, up 7,100 tons. The number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 51.28%, down 3.13 percentage points. The monthly output of recycled lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead is 70.57%, down 3.31 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 33,900 tons, down 400 tons. The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 30 dollars/kiloton, down 10 dollars. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons. The global lead ore output is 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons. The monthly import volume of lead ore is 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the monthly export volume of refined lead is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average market price of waste batteries is 9,946.43 yuan/ton, down 23.21 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41.45 million units, down 425,000 units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) is 20,175 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 1,655.35 points, down 1.98 points. The monthly automobile output is 2.604 million vehicles, down 440,600 vehicles. The monthly new - energy vehicle output is 1.647 million vehicles, up 73,000 vehicles [2]. 3.6 Industry News - **Tariff News**: The Trump administration raised the steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, effective on the 4th. The US put forward a "long and demanding" requirement list to Vietnam in tariff negotiations. The EU did not receive a letter from the US asking for the "best trade offer". The Brazilian president said that if an agreement on tariffs with the US cannot be reached, Brazil will resort to the WTO or take reciprocal measures. The India - EU free trade agreement is accelerating, and nearly half of the issues have reached a consensus [2]. - **Fed News**: Logan said to focus on achieving the 2% inflation target instead of trying to make up for past inflation shortfalls. Bostic still thinks there may be one interest - rate cut this year [2]. - **US Economic Data**: The number of job openings in the US unexpectedly increased in April, and the monthly rate of factory orders in April recorded the largest decline since January 2024. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will revise the April employment report on Friday, and most indicators such as the unemployment rate are not affected [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of Shanghai lead has declined, which provides some support for prices. However, the price of Shanghai lead continues to decline under the influence of weakening demand. Although the inventory has decreased, the overseas inventory remains high, putting significant pressure on lead prices. Attention should be paid to the new impacts brought by changes in tariff policies. Technically, it is currently in a triangular consolidation structure with decreasing trading volume, and a long - option volatility strategy can be considered. Operationally, it is recommended to go short on rallies [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,570 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 1,981 US dollars/ton, up 17 US dollars. The 07 - 08 contract spread of Shanghai lead is 0 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the Shanghai lead open interest is 90,698 lots, up 4,827 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 1,338 lots, up 236 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 40,316 tons, up 897 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 46,500 tons, down 1,928 tons; the LME lead inventory is 284,150 tons, down 2,025 tons [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,375 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,580 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract is - 195 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 22.17 US dollars/ton, up 2.09 US dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 15,704 yuan, down 241 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,420 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 51.28%, down 3.13 percentage points; the output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 73.88%, down 0.78 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.43 tons, down 0.02 tons. The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is - 30 US dollars/kiloton, down 10 US dollars; the global lead mine output of ILZSG is 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons; the lead ore import volume is 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory is 720 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of the scrap battery market is 9,946.43 yuan/ton, down 23.21 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries is 41,450 units, down 425 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,175 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan. The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources is 1,657.33 points, down 7.41 points. The monthly automobile output is 260.4 tons, down 44.06 tons; the monthly output of new - energy vehicles is 164.7 tons, up 7.3 tons [2]. Industry News - Teck Resources' Carmen de Andacollo open - pit copper mine in Chile will be shut down for about a month due to mechanical failures, but it will not have a significant impact on the 2025 output. The mine will reschedule some factory maintenance work to mitigate the impact. Teck plans to produce 490,000 - 565,000 tons of copper this year. On the macro - level, European and American trade officials will meet on Wednesday, and the EU has reiterated its warning of tariff countermeasures [2]. Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, primary lead smelters' operating rate and output have declined due to unclear lead prices. The loss pressure of recycled lead has increased, and the subsequent production increase is difficult. The 1 lead price has dropped by 25 yuan/ton to 16,375 yuan/ton, and the scrap battery price has fluctuated. On the demand side, the market transaction is weak, and the support for lead prices is limited. The demand for charging piles and automobiles has slowed down. The overseas inventory has slightly decreased but remains high, and the domestic inventory has decreased significantly due to production decline. The lead concentrate processing fee remains low, affecting the resumption of production of recycled and primary lead [2][3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side of lead is affected by price uncertainty, resulting in a decline in the operating rate and output of primary lead smelters. The continuous decline in lead prices has expanded the loss pressure of secondary lead, and secondary lead smelters have been forced to lower their operating rates due to losses and raw material constraints. The demand side has weak support for lead prices, with overall light market transactions. Overseas inventories are decreasing, but the decline is small, and demand is significantly affected by tariffs. Domestic inventories are slightly increasing, and overseas prices are suppressing the upward space of domestic prices. The lead concentrate processing fee remains low, which has an impact on the resumption of production of secondary and primary lead. It is recommended to short on rallies [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract is 16,860 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quotation is 2,000 US dollars/ton, down 4.5 US dollars. The 06 - 07 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is - 25 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The Shanghai lead open interest is 68,494 lots, an increase of 835 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 1,875 lots, an increase of 3 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 49,921 tons, an increase of 502 tons. The SHFE inventory is 55,472 tons, an increase of 5,968 tons, and the LME lead inventory is 248,850 tons, a decrease of 1,825 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,725 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,890 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract is - 135 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 4.45 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.38 US dollars. The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,078 yuan, an increase of 149 yuan. The price of domestic secondary lead (≥98.5%) is 16,630 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS lead supply - demand balance is - 18,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons. The number of secondary lead production enterprises is 68, an increase of 3. The capacity utilization rate of secondary lead is 54.41%, an increase of 18.29 percentage points. The monthly output of secondary lead is 224,200 tons, a decrease of 67,500 tons. The average operating rate of primary lead is 74.66%, a decrease of 2.85 percentage points, and the weekly output of primary lead is 34,500 tons, a decrease of 800 tons. The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 20 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16,400 tons, an increase of 48,800 tons. The global lead ore output is 399,700 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons. The monthly lead ore import volume is 119,700 tons, an increase of 24,800 tons [2]. Industrial Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, a decrease of 1,021.76 tons. The domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 720 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, an increase of 223.33 tons. The average price of waste batteries in the market is 10,082.14 yuan/ton, down 46.43 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41.45 million, a decrease of 425,000. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,750 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan. The Shenwan industry index of batteries is 1,647.12 points, an increase of 2.61 points. The monthly automobile output is 3.0446 million, a decrease of 454,000. The monthly new - energy vehicle output is 1.647 million, an increase of 73,000 [2]. Industry News - In April 2025, the added value of the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 7.5% year - on - year, and the cumulative added value from January to April increased by 6.9% year - on - year. The output of ten non - ferrous metals in April was 6.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%; the cumulative output from January to April was 26.6 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.3%. Among them, the output of electrolytic aluminum in April was 3.75 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%; the output of electrolytic aluminum from January to April was 14.79 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.4%. Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 and adjusted the outlook from "negative" to "stable" [2].

沪铅产业日报 2025-05-15 | | | 原生铅复工起到了部分影响。综上所述，沪铅价格短期可能受到去库影响小幅反弹，但反弹高度预计有限 免责声明 ，后续依旧受到需求影响高位回落，注意关税政策变化带来的新增影响。操作上建议，逢高空为主。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16975 | 40 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 1996.5 | 7.5 | | | 06-07月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | 0 | 15 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-13 节后铅蓄电池终端消费持续疲软，部分生产企业延续库存消耗模式，原料采购维持低位，叠加目前为消费淡季， 因此铅价或维持相对偏弱格局。但由于目前市场风险情绪因中美贸易谈判有明显进展，市场情绪好转，因此也不 排除铅价会在整体有色板块的带动下维持相对抗跌格局。操作上暂时以高抛低吸对待。 风险 废旧电瓶持续吃紧 风险情绪滋生带动有色板块整体走强 风险情绪回升下铅价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-05-12，LME铅现货升水为4.69美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化125元/吨至16750元 /吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至-15.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化150元/ 吨至16800元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化225元/吨至16800元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易 日变化225元/吨至16875元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至10275元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化25元/吨至10175元/吨，废黑壳较前一交 ...

铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 日期：2025年5月11日 ◆ 短期供需双弱，上方压力较为显著，但是铅价下方空间暂不看深，以区间震荡 对待。一方面，蓄电池企业尤其是大厂依然存在补库空间，价格下跌后备库支 撑，另一方面，二季度废电池供应淡季，在废电池长期偏紧背景下只要需求不 坍塌废电池成本支撑依然较为显著。中长期角度，可以布局低位的买入操作， 后续消费走强有望提供支撑。 再生铅减量 蓄电池开工率下行 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 01-01 01-12 01-21 01-31 02-10 02-19 03-01 03-11 03-21 03-31 04-09 04-19 04-29 05-09 05-20 06-02 06-14 06-25 07-08 07-21 08-02 08-13 08-26 09-08 09-20 10-04 10-15 10-28 11-10 11-22 12-03 12-16 12-29 % 再生铅开工率 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 ...

铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 日期：2025年4月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 强弱分析：偏弱 铅：需求偏弱，压制价格上方 再生铅利润显著收缩 -1000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 元/吨 再生铅盈亏 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 蓄电池库存处于相对偏高位置 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - The supply - side production of lead has increased, while the demand side shows weakness. The downstream manufacturers are still waiting and watching. The high foreign inventory restricts the upward movement of lead prices. The short - term rebound of Shanghai lead is expected to end. It is recommended to lightly short the Shanghai lead main contract 2505 at around 17,000 yuan/ton with a stop - loss at 17,300 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,825 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 1,916.5 dollars/ton, up 2.5 dollars. The 05 - 06 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was 20 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shanghai lead open interest was 80,572 lots, up 701 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was 1,540 lots, down 458 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 58,378 tons, down 145 tons. The SHFE inventory was 62,646 tons, down 3,150 tons; the LME lead inventory was 257,325 tons, up 9,900 tons [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,725 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market, it was 16,910 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract was - 100 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the LME lead spread (0 - 3) was - 21.91 dollars/ton, up 1.16 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 16,004 yuan, down 275 yuan. The domestic recycled lead price (≥98.5%) was 16,640 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan. The number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, up 3. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 54.41%, up 18.29 percentage points. The monthly output of recycled lead was 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 72.61%, down 9.58 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.21 tons, down 0.23 tons. The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports was - 20 dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The global lead mine output was 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons. The lead ore import volume was 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the export volume was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory was 720 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of waste batteries in the market was 9,978.57 yuan/ton, down 3.57 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41,450,000, down 425,000. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, with 2% antimony) was 20,750 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan. The Shenwan industry index of batteries was 1,586.97 points, up 14.02 points. The monthly automobile output was 3.4986 million, up 51,000; the monthly new - energy automobile output was 1.647 million, up 73,000 [2]. Industry News - The US Treasury Secretary said there was no evidence of sovereign investors selling US assets. The EU trade commissioner was in talks in Washington, and progress was made in US - EU tariff negotiations. The New York Fed's 1 - year inflation expectation rose to 3.58%, and the 3 - year expectation remained at 3%. The Fed governor said in a large - scale tariff scenario, earlier and larger - scale interest rate cuts were preferred in case of significant economic slowdown. There were still differences in reaching a Gaza cease - fire agreement. OPEC adjusted down the global crude oil demand growth rate and economic growth rate expectations. JPMorgan Chase lowered the 2025 Brent crude oil price forecast from 73 dollars/barrel to 66 dollars/barrel [2]. View Summary - The supply of recycled refined lead and electrolytic lead increased. The price of 1 lead dropped 100 yuan/ton, and the price of waste batteries in some areas was adjusted by 50 - 200 yuan/ton. The willingness of refined lead holders to sell increased, but most held firm quotes and few sold. The price of recycled refined lead was 100 yuan/ton lower than that of primary lead. Downstream battery manufacturers preferentially purchased primary lead for rigid demand, and the transaction of recycled refined lead was light. In the traditional off - season of April, new orders decreased, and enterprises adopted a production - based - on - sales strategy [2].