Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is "Guoxin Futures Non-ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report", with the date of January 18, 2026 [2][3] Group 2: Table of Contents - The report includes three main parts: market review, fundamental analysis, and outlook for the future [4] Group 3: Market Review - The section focuses on the price trend of nickel's futures main contract, with data from 2020/12/31 to 2025/12/31 [6][7] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis - **Upstream**: It shows the inventory of Chinese nickel ore ports from 2020/12/31 to 2025/12/31 [10][11] - **Midstream**: Covers the prices of electrolytic nickel, nickel sulfate, and the monthly import volume of ferronickel and the price of 8 - 12% ferronickel from 2020/12/31 to 2025/12/31 [13][15][17] - **Downstream**: Includes the price, futures positions, inventory of stainless steel, the production of power and energy - storage batteries, and the production of new - energy vehicles from 2020/12/31 to 2025/12/31 [19][21][24][26][29] Group 5: Outlook for the Future - **Macroeconomic Situation**: The Fed cut interest rates for the third time in December 2025, lowering the target range of the federal funds rate to 3.50% - 3.75%. The US GDP in Q3 2025 grew 4.3% year - on - year, higher than Q2 and market expectations. The People's Bank of China will introduce 8 policy measures, including cutting the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points and reducing the minimum down payment ratio for commercial housing loans to 30% [34] - **Market Outlook**: Shanghai nickel showed a trend of rising and then falling this week. Nickel inventory is at a high level in the same period. The 2026 RKAB quota in Indonesia may be 250 million tons, much lower than 2025. The production of ferronickel in Indonesia in December remained high, with a large supply pressure. The social inventory of downstream stainless steel is decreasing faster, but the pressure of high inventory is still prominent. It is expected that the main contract of Shanghai nickel will operate in the range of approximately 130,000 to 160,000 yuan/ton, and the main contract of stainless steel will operate in the range of approximately 13,500 to 15,500 yuan/ton [34]

镍期货市场：美指下跌提振资金加速流入基本金属全线上涨，隔夜伦镍收涨2.12%；伦镍最新收盘报 18075，比前一交易日上涨375美元/吨，涨幅为2.12%，成交15514手，国内方面，夜盘沪期镍弱势震 荡，尾盘小幅收涨，沪镍主力合约2602最新收报141520元/吨，下跌60元/吨，跌幅为0.04%； 伦敦金属交易所（LME）1月12日伦镍库存报284562吨，较前一交易日库存量减少228吨。 长江镍业网讯：今日沪镍期货全线高开；主力月2602合约开盘报145000涨3420元，9：20分沪镍主力 2602合约报140840跌740；沪期镍开盘高开低走，盘面维持弱势震荡；宏观面，当前镍价承压，核心在 于宏观与地缘两大支撑动能同步减弱。一方面，市场对主要央行政策独立性的疑虑抑制了整体风险偏 好，而资金正从大宗商品等传统领域流向科技成长赛道，导致金属市场的流动性支撑削弱。另一方面， 此前推升价格的关键地缘风险溢价正在消退，特别是非洲资源地区的紧张局势出现缓和迹象，显著降低 了供应链中断的担忧。宏观情绪退潮与供应风险缓释形成共振，共同加剧了镍价的下行压力。 供应端压力增大：全球显性库存持续累积至高位，构成了对价格的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the nickel market is experiencing upward momentum due to a combination of macroeconomic expectations, geopolitical risks, and strong demand from the new energy sector [2][3] - Nickel prices have shown significant increases, with LME nickel closing at $17,700, up $635 per ton, a rise of 3.72%, while domestic SHFE nickel futures also saw a substantial increase [1] - The supply side constraints are a fundamental support for prices, with major nickel-producing countries implementing tighter annual quota policies, leading to a slowdown in supply growth [3] Group 2 - The geopolitical situation in key resource areas, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo, has heightened concerns about the stability of the global nickel supply chain, contributing to price increases despite no direct impact on production [2][3] - Demand for nickel is being driven by the rapid growth in new energy applications, particularly high-nickel ternary batteries, which are benefiting from increased electric vehicle penetration and technological advancements [3] - The industry structure is becoming more concentrated, with leading companies enhancing their advantages through resource control and integrated layouts, while smaller capacities are being phased out, optimizing supply structure and enhancing pricing power [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel price has regained its financial attribute, and there is no need to be overly bearish. Although the non - ferrous sector has seen a general decline due to the correction of precious metals and copper, the medium - to - long - term trend remains upward. The nickel market is in a state of supply surplus and continuous inventory accumulation, but considering multiple dimensions such as the macro - environment, capital flow, and market sentiment, the price may not be overly pessimistic. [1][6] - The stainless steel market has a good inventory reduction recently, but the inflow of funds is limited. It passively follows the nickel price, with limited upside and difficulty in deep decline. [9] 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Spread Tracking and Inventory 1.1 Nickel - Price and Spread Data - From January 5th to January 9th, the Shanghai - London ratio fluctuated around 7.96 - 8.05, with a 0.03 increase compared to the previous weekend and the end of last month. The spot import profit and loss, LME nickel premium/discount, and various nickel product premium/discounts also showed certain changes. For example, the SMM Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 1400 yuan compared to the previous weekend and the end of last month. [10] 1.2 Nickel - Global Nickel Inventory - Global visible nickel inventory reached 348,000 tons, an increase of 31,700 tons this week, mainly due to a large amount of warehousing in LME Asian warehouses stimulated by high nickel prices, and there was also an increase of over 2,000 tons in domestic social inventory. The supply of Jinchuan nickel is tight, and the spot premium has risen to 9,000 yuan/ton. [16] 1.3 Stainless Steel - Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The social inventory of stainless steel continues to decline, and warehouse receipts are at a low level. Although the terminal demand for stainless steel is still weak, traders are actively replenishing inventory. The price of stainless steel has followed the rise of nickel prices, but the increase is relatively restrained due to the lack of large - scale capital inflow. [9][18] Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Pure Nickel - **Production**: In 2025, the cumulative production of refined nickel increased by 17% year - on - year to 392,700 tons. In January, high nickel prices are expected to further boost production. From January to November 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 48,900 tons, compared with a net export of 24,800 tons in the same period last year. Due to the opening of the import window at the end of December, the net import in January is expected to increase. From January to November 2025, the domestic supply of refined nickel was 410,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 48%. [25] - **Demand**: From January to December, the cumulative consumption of pure nickel increased by 2% year - on - year to 291,000 tons. Electroplating consumption decreased seasonally, while alloy consumption increased slightly, and overall consumption slowed down. In December, the PMI of the downstream nickel industry stood above the 50 boom - bust line due to the recovery of stainless steel, but the consumption of pure nickel in electroplating, alloy, etc. was in the off - season, with a significant month - on - month decline. [28] 2.2 Stainless Steel - **Raw Materials** - **Nickel Ore**: The first - round benchmark price of Indonesian domestic nickel ore in January 2026 increased month - on - month, and the premium remained flat at HPM + 25 - +26 US dollars/wet ton. The Indonesian government will adjust nickel quotas according to industry demand. Some mines are operating normally, while others are waiting for quotas. [30] - **NPI**: The NPI market has recovered. The price of high - nickel iron has increased, and the production of China + Indonesia NPI has also shown a certain trend. The profit margin of NPI in some regions has improved. [32][33] - **Chromium - based Products**: Starting from January 1, 2026, Zimbabwe has imposed a 10% tax on the export of chromium - based products, causing the price of chromium ore to rebound continuously. The long - term purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group in January 2026 has decreased. [43] - **Cost and Hedging**: Estimating the cold - rolling cash cost at around 13,900 yuan/ton and the integrated cost at 13,400 yuan/ton. The futures market can provide hedging profits, reflecting a lively market atmosphere. [46] - **Supply**: It is estimated that the production of stainless - steel crude steel in China and India in 2025 was 45.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The production schedule in January has increased month - on - month, but whether it can be achieved depends on raw material supply. From January to November 2025, China's total stainless - steel imports were 1.374 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21%; total exports were 4.546 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%; and the net export volume was 3.172 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. [55] - **Demand**: The growth rate of shipbuilding plate production from January to November increased by 29% year - on - year, providing support for stainless - steel demand, while the growth rates in other terminal fields are not optimistic. [57] 2.3 New Energy Vehicles - **Domestic Market**: From January to November, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles were 12.466 million, a year - on - year increase of 23.2%. In December, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 1.387 million, a year - on - year increase of 7% and a month - on - month increase of 5%. The production of power cells increased by 41.9% year - on - year to 124.55 GWh from January to December. In January, the production of ternary power is expected to decrease by 6.1% month - on - month. [62] - **Global Market**: From January to November 2025, the global sales of new energy vehicles increased by 20.1% year - on - year to 18.39 million. European sales increased by 29.2% year - on - year to 3.434 million, while US sales increased by 0.7% year - on - year to 1.39 million. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to November were 2.283 million, a year - on - year increase of 100%. [67] - **Nickel Sulfate Market**: In 2025, China's nickel sulfate production decreased by 4.3% year - on - year to 354,000 nickel tons, while the production of ternary precursors increased by 6% year - on - year to 903,000 tons, and the production of ternary cathode materials increased by 19% year - on - year to 686,000 tons. In January, the demand for nickel sulfate slowed down, but the price followed the rise of refined nickel. [69] - **Nickel Sulfate Raw Materials**: In 2025, Indonesia's MHP production increased by 41% year - on - year to 444,000 tons, while high - grade nickel matte production decreased by 18% year - on - year to 224,000 tons. The increase in sulfur prices has raised the cost of MHP, and the good demand for nickel sulfate has boosted the price of intermediate products and stimulated production recovery. [75] 2.4 Overall Situation of Pure Nickel - The production of pure nickel has recovered, and the supply surplus has expanded, resulting in continuous inventory accumulation in the market. [76] Trading Logic and Strategies - **Nickel**: Considering the overall rise of the non - ferrous sector, it is recommended not to overly rely on industry constraints such as supply - demand and cost. Instead, multiple dimensions such as the macro - environment, capital flow, and market sentiment should be comprehensively considered. After the price has risen rapidly, the volatility has increased, so it is recommended to control positions and operate with caution. For unilateral trading, buy on pullbacks; for options, wait and see for the time being. [6] - **Stainless Steel**: Although the inventory of stainless steel has been reduced well recently, it has not attracted a large amount of capital inflow, so the increase is relatively limited. However, due to the low inventory level of downstream and insufficient arrival of goods at steel mills, there is inventory replenishment when the price pulls back, and it is also difficult for the price to decline sharply. It passively follows the nickel price to operate at a high level. For unilateral trading, it passively follows the high - level operation of the nickel price; for arbitrage, wait and see for the time being. [9]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Rise and Fall, Consolidating for Momentum - Guoxin Futures Non-ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated January 11, 2026 [2][3] Group 2: Table of Contents - The report includes sections on market review, fundamental analysis, and outlook for the future [4] Group 3: Market Review - This section presents the price trend of the nickel futures main contract [7] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis - Upstream: It shows the port inventory of nickel ore in China [12] - Midstream: It includes the prices of electrolytic nickel, nickel sulfate, and 8 - 12% nickel - iron, as well as the monthly import volume of nickel - iron [15][18][20] - Downstream: It covers the price, position, and inventory of stainless steel, as well as the production of power and energy - storage batteries and new energy vehicles [22][30][32] Group 5: Outlook for the Future - In the US, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time in December 2025, with the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%. The GDP growth rate in Q3 2025 was 4.3%. There are differences in views on future interest - rate cuts, and the market is concerned about the new Fed chair. The probabilities of different interest - rate scenarios are provided. In China, the manufacturing PMI in December 2025 was 50.1%, and the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026 [38] - The Shanghai nickel futures showed a rise - and - fall trend this week. Nickel inventory is at a high level. The 2026 RKAB quota in Indonesia may be 2.5 billion tons, lower than in 2025. Indonesian nickel - iron production in December remained high, with large supply pressure. Stainless - steel demand enters the off - season, but production has increased due to price hikes. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 130,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,800 - 14,200 yuan/ton [38]

沪镍震荡回落，主力合约跌超2%。近期在印尼政策调整和宏观情绪的共同推动下， 镍价大幅反弹。但 镍基本面未有明显变化，仍然维持供应过剩局面，同时，印尼缩减配额的实际落地情况仍有待观察，叠 加贵金属及有色市场炒作情绪降温，沪镍高位回落。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings. Core Views Tin - Market sentiment has fluctuated recently, causing significant volatility in tin prices. Operation should be cautious, and subsequent attention should be paid to macro - economic conditions and supply - side recovery [2]. Zinc - The lower support for zinc prices comes from the tightening domestic zinc ore supply and low zinc ingot inventory, while the upper pressure comes from the expected supply of imported ores. Short - term prices are likely to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to import profit and loss, TC inflection points, and changes in refined zinc inventory [5]. Copper - The medium - to - long - term fundamentals of copper are good, but in the short term, prices are over - estimated irrationally, yet may remain strong due to high market speculation. Attention should be paid to overseas inventory changes and CL premium changes [7]. Nickel - Recently, the nickel market has been driven by Indonesia's tightening expectations, but the actual fundamentals are weak, restricting the upside of prices. The short - term market is expected to remain strong, and attention should be paid to potential price corrections [10]. Stainless Steel - The fundamentals of stainless steel show slightly eased supply pressure and strengthened cost support, but demand in the off - season is still insufficient. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to news from the ore end and downstream inventory replenishment [12]. Alumina - The market still faces severe oversupply pressure, and alumina prices are expected to fluctuate widely around the industry's cash cost line. The key to a trend - based rebound lies in whether there are specific capacity control policies or large - scale production cuts [14]. Aluminum - Strong macro and policy expectations support aluminum prices, but weakening supply - demand fundamentals and inventory accumulation pressure will limit the upside. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels [14]. Aluminum Alloy - The cost is the main driving factor for the price of aluminum alloy. The market is in a tight - balance state with both supply and demand being weak. Prices are expected to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate remain largely unchanged, with a slight increase in supply expected. The downstream demand has certain resilience but weakens in the off - season. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and price volatility may intensify [16]. Industrial Silicon - In January, industrial silicon is expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts [17]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon spot prices are stable, and futures are oscillating at a high level. In January, demand is weak, and prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to production cuts and price adjustment acceptance [18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.91%, and the SMM 1 tin premium increased by 142.86%. The import loss increased by 9.86%, and some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, tin ore imports increased by 29.81%, and in December, SMM refined tin production decreased slightly by 0.06%. Exchange inventories decreased [2]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased slightly by 0.09%, and the import loss decreased by 5.78%. Some month - to - month spreads changed [5]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, refined zinc production decreased by 7.24%, and in November, exports increased significantly by 402.59%. Social inventories decreased [5]. Copper - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 1.23%, and the import loss decreased by 46.83%. Some month - to - month spreads changed [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, electrolytic copper production increased by 6.80%, and in November, imports decreased by 3.90%. Social inventories increased [7]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 3.77%, and the import profit increased by 175.35%. Some month - to - month spreads changed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and in November, imports increased by 30.08%. Some inventories increased slightly [10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel remained unchanged, and some month - to - month spreads changed [12]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, China's 300 - series stainless steel production decreased slightly, and exports increased by 13.18%. Social inventories decreased [12]. Alumina - **Price and Spread**: Alumina prices remained stable, the electrolytic aluminum import loss decreased, and some month - to - month spreads changed [14]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, alumina production increased by 1.08%, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.97%. Some inventories increased [14]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 1.26%, the import loss decreased, and some month - to - month spreads changed [14]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum production increased, and demand weakened. Social inventories increased [14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM ADC12 price increased by 0.67%, and some month - to - month spreads changed [15]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, the production of regeneration and primary aluminum alloy increased, and some inventories decreased [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.42%, and some month - to - month spreads changed [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, lithium carbonate production increased by 4.04%, and demand decreased by 2.50%. Inventories decreased [16]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: The prices of some industrial silicon products remained unchanged, and some month - to - month spreads changed [17]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, national industrial silicon production decreased by 1.15%, and exports increased by 21.78%. Some inventories increased slightly [17]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: N - type polysilicon prices increased slightly, and some month - to - month spreads changed [18]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, polysilicon production increased by 0.79%, and net exports increased significantly. Inventories increased [18].

Core Viewpoint - Ningbo Likun Resource Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Likun Resources") has submitted its prospectus and is preparing for an IPO on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange main board [2][14]. Financial Performance - Likun Resources reported revenues of 18.5 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.25 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with a non-recurring net profit of 1.4 billion yuan [5][17]. - The company’s revenues for 2022, 2023, and 2024 are projected to be 18.3 billion, 21.286 billion, and 29.846 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 3.016 billion, 1.72 billion, and 3.2 billion yuan [5][16]. Investment Plans - Likun Resources plans to raise 4.047 billion yuan through the IPO, with 2.062 billion yuan allocated for a wet slag resource demonstration project and 1.985 billion yuan for an MHP refining production project [3][15]. Shareholding Structure - Before the IPO, Cai Jianyong directly held 18.77% of the shares, while Likun Investment and Ningbo Lijian indirectly controlled 32.65% of the voting rights, totaling 51.42% [7][18]. - Post-IPO, Likun Investment's shareholding will decrease to 29.33%, while Cai Jianyong's will drop to 16.89% [10][21]. Market Position - Likun Resources, established in 2009, has evolved into a leading trader in the nickel product sector, expanding its operations from nickel ore and nickel iron trading to include production capabilities after acquiring Huiran Industrial in 2017 [5][16]. - The company has developed wet and pyrometallurgical projects in Indonesia in collaboration with local partners [5][16].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the potential for a prosperous economic environment in China, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and potential quantitative easing (QE), which will facilitate the return of cross-border capital to China and improve cash flow in the real economy [3][5]. - Key industries highlighted for investment opportunities include non-ferrous metals, new consumption, and high-end manufacturing [4][6]. Company Insights Zijin Mining - Zijin Mining, the world's third-largest copper mining company, is expected to benefit from rising copper prices and increased production, with projected revenues reaching 80 billion by 2026 and a market capitalization of 1.6 trillion [10]. - The company is seen as a top investment choice due to its strong growth prospects and the favorable market conditions for copper [10]. Huafeng Aluminum - Huafeng Aluminum is recognized for its solid quality and cautious capacity expansion, with a return on equity (ROE) of 20%-25% and a compound growth rate of over 15%. The current valuation is considered low, making it a potential investment target [11]. - The company is expected to benefit from new product launches and applications, with a projected doubling of capacity after the completion of its Chongqing expansion [11]. Huayou Cobalt - Huayou Cobalt's primary profit source is nickel, with expectations of profit doubling within three years, potentially within two years if nickel prices rise. The company is positioned well in the market due to concentrated supply dynamics [13][15]. - The nickel market is dominated by a few large players, with significant influence from Indonesian government policies, which are expected to drive prices higher [14]. Dongfang Electric - Dongfang Electric is positioned to benefit from increased global power investments, particularly in North America, where demand for gas turbines is rising due to AI-driven electricity needs. The company has secured overseas orders for its 750 gas turbine [16][17]. Guotai Junan Securities - Guotai Junan is expected to fully realize integration effects by 2026, with a leading customer base and significant cost reduction potential through business integration. The company reported a revenue of 46 billion and a net profit of 22.1 billion in the first three quarters of 2023, showing substantial growth [2][22]. - The current valuation is considered low compared to peers, indicating potential investment value [22]. Market Trends and Predictions - The A-share market is anticipated to reach new highs in 2026, with increased volatility. Non-ferrous metals, new consumption, and high-end manufacturing sectors are expected to perform well due to macroeconomic improvements [6]. - The copper and aluminum markets are projected to see price increases due to tight supply and stable demand over the next two to three years [9]. Additional Insights - The impact of U.S. Federal Reserve policies on the Chinese market is significant, with recent interest rate cuts reversing capital outflows and improving the economic environment [5]. - The agricultural sector is expected to benefit from rising prices in phosphate and potash resources due to supply-demand mismatches, with companies like Dongfang Iron Tower making strategic moves in this area [18]. Conclusion - The conference call highlights a positive outlook for several industries and companies in China, driven by macroeconomic factors and strategic positioning within their respective markets. Investors are encouraged to consider these opportunities as the economic landscape evolves.

Core Viewpoint - Ningbo Likun Resource Technology Co., Ltd. has received acceptance for its IPO application on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, aiming to raise approximately 4.047 billion yuan for investment in key projects [1] Company Overview - Likun Resource is recognized as a global leader in the nickel industry chain, with its main business activities including upstream nickel resource procurement, nickel product trading, and the production and sales of nickel products [1] Fundraising Purpose - The company plans to utilize the raised funds for the investment in a wet method slag resource recycling demonstration project and an MHP refining production project, after deducting issuance costs [1]