锡产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【 2011】1292号 2025年12月23日 #NAME? V期现日报 厂家发期货 | 2025年12月23日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 340600 | 337100 | 3500 | 1.04% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | -50 | -50 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 341100 | 337600 | 3500 | 1.04% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -11.00 | -62.00 | 51.00 | 82.26% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -13815.90 | -13213.45 | -602.45 | -4.56% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比 ...

——国信期货有色（镍）周报 研究所 弱势震荡，触底反弹 2025年12月21日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 2 基本面分析 3 后市展望 研究所 Part1 第一部分 行情回顾 1.1 行情回顾——期货主力合约价格走势 研究所 0.00 50,000.00 100,000.00 150,000.00 200,000.00 250,000.00 300,000.00 2020/12/31 2021/02/28 2021/04/30 2021/06/30 2021/08/31 2021/10/31 2021/12/31 2022/02/28 2022/04/30 2022/06/30 2022/08/31 2022/10/31 2022/12/31 2023/02/28 2023/04/30 2023/06/30 2023/08/31 2023/10/31 2023/12/31 2024/02/29 2024/04/30 2024/06/30 2024/08/31 2024/10/31 2024/12/31 2025/02/28 2025/04/30 2025/06/30 2025/08/31 ...

ccmn沪镍走势：今日午盘后沪期镍上涨，沪期镍主力月2601合约开盘报112400元/吨，盘中最高报 114280元/吨，最低价报111700元/吨，收盘报113800元/吨，上涨1170元/吨，涨幅为1.04%，沪镍主力月 2601主力合约成交量139596手。 据长江有色属网统计：12月17日ccmn长江综合1#镍价112500元/吨-118400元/吨，均价报115450元/吨， 较前一日价格上涨400元，长江现货1#镍报112600元/吨-118400元/吨，均价报115500元/吨，较前一日价 格上涨450元，广东现货镍报118900元/吨-119300元/吨，均价报119100元/吨，较前一日价格上涨450 元。 ccmn镍市分析：宏观面，宏观层面，主导逻辑正从"紧缩压制"转向"预期博弈"。海外方面，尽管美国通 胀与就业数据仍显韧性，但市场对美联储加息周期接近尾声、未来将转向宽松的预期持续发酵。这一预 期推动美元自高位回落，从计价层面为以美元定价的镍等基本金属提供了关键的金融属性支撑。然而， 全球经济增长的不确定性，尤其是主要经济体工业活动的疲软迹象，也抑制了金属的需求预期，形成了 多空拉锯的局面 ...

| 铜产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月15日 星期一 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 車位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 03222 | 92665 | +930.00 | 1.00% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | -20 | 5 | -25.00 | | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 93650 | 92785 | +865.00 | 0.93% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | વેર | ୧୧ | +30.00 | - | 元/肥 | | SMM湿法铜 | 93505 | 92585 | +920.00 | 0.99% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | -110 | -75 | -35.00 | - | 7C/ http | | 精废价差 | 4797 | 4007 | +79 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 铜：日加息预期扰动 铜价面临调整风险 1、宏观。海外方面，美联储议息会议如期降息25个基点，并启动短期美债购买。点阵图显示明年预计 会有一次25个基点的降息，这意味着明年的降息动作将较今年明显放缓。鲍威尔表示购债规模未来几个 月或维持较高水平，就业市场逐步降温但慢于预期，目前利率所处位置使美联储能够耐心等待，观察经 济接下来将如何演变。下周将召开日央行议息会议，关注是否重启加息，日本央行重启加息预期或导致 过去"日元套利交易"出现平仓潮，给全球风险资产特别是美元资产构成较大压力。国内方面，关注即将 到来的中央经济工作会议。 2、基本面。铜精矿方面，国内TC报价仍处在历史低位，维系着铜精矿紧张情绪，成为基本面的强支撑 因素，且年末长协谈判仍在进行，预计TC报价对冶炼厂并不有利。精铜产量方面，12月电解铜预估产 量116.88万吨，环比增加5.96%，同比增加6.69%，12月冶炼企业有冲产量的惯性，这也无疑会凸显精矿 紧张态势。进口方面，国内10月精铜净进口同比下降31.56%至25.72万吨，累计同比下降4.67%；10月废 铜进口量环比增加6 ...

| 铜产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月15日 星期一 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 車位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 03222 | 92665 | +930.00 | 1.00% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | -20 | 5 | -25.00 | | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 93650 | 92785 | +865.00 | 0.93% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | વેર | ୧୧ | +30.00 | - | 元/肥 | | SMM湿法铜 | 93505 | 92585 | +920.00 | 0.99% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | -110 | -75 | -35.00 | - | 7C/ http | | 精废价差 | 4797 | 4007 | +79 ...

2 基本面分析 研究所 弱势震荡，成本定价 ——国信期货有色（镍）周报 2025年12月14日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 3 后市展望 研究所 Part1 第一部分 行情回顾 1.1 行情回顾——期货主力合约价格走势 研究所 0.00 50,000.00 100,000.00 150,000.00 200,000.00 250,000.00 300,000.00 2020/12/31 2021/02/28 2021/04/30 2021/06/30 2021/08/31 2021/10/31 2021/12/31 2022/02/28 2022/04/30 2022/06/30 2022/08/31 2022/10/31 2022/12/31 2023/02/28 2023/04/30 2023/06/30 2023/08/31 2023/10/31 2023/12/31 2024/02/29 2024/04/30 2024/06/30 2024/08/31 2024/10/31 2024/12/31 2025/02/28 2025/04/30 2025/06/30 2025/08/31 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - On December 4, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated within a range. With a weak nickel fundamental and inventory pressure, along with the repeated expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, after the price recovered from a low level, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1][2]. - On December 4, the main stainless - steel contract also fluctuated within a range. Given the loose fundamentals and weakening cost support, stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The trading strategy is to short on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market Futures Market - On December 4, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures contracts generally decreased. For example, the closing price of the near - month contract was 117,600 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume of Shanghai nickel futures was 103,322 lots, a decrease of 9,126 lots, and the open interest of the active contract decreased by 577 lots [2]. - The inventory of Shanghai nickel futures increased, with the inventory on December 4 being 32,595 tons, an increase of 2,501 tons from the previous day [2]. Spot Market - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 400 yuan compared to the previous day. The basis (spot - to - futures) widened, with the basis of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price minus the closing price of the active nickel futures contract being 2,130 yuan on December 4 [2]. Supply and Demand - Supply side: Nickel ore prices remained flat. The arrival volume of nickel ore at ports increased last week, and port inventories decreased. The loss of nickel - iron plants deepened, with domestic and Indonesian nickel - iron production schedules decreasing in December. The domestic electrolytic nickel production schedule increased in December, and the loss of electrolytic nickel imports narrowed [2]. - Demand side: Ternary material production decreased; stainless - steel plant production schedules decreased; alloy and electroplating demand remained stable [2]. Inventory - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, LME, and social inventory increased, while the bonded - area inventory decreased [2]. Stainless - Steel Market Futures Market - On December 4, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated within a range. The trading volume was 84,742 lots, an increase of 4,381 lots, and the open interest decreased by 871 lots [2]. - The inventory of stainless - steel futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, with the inventory on December 4 being 62,157 tons, a decrease of 180 tons from the previous day [2]. Spot Market - Spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. For example, the basis of the average price of 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) minus the active contract price was 775 yuan on December 4 [2]. Supply and Demand - Supply side: Stainless - steel production decreased in December, and the production schedule of the 300 - series stainless - steel decreased [2]. - Demand side: Terminal demand was weak [2]. Cost - The price of high - grade nickel pig iron decreased, while the price of high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat [2]. Industry News - After the EU officially issued the new battery passport policy, the Indonesian nickel industry has once again become the focus. The full implementation of the policy is scheduled for February 2027. The preparation levels of Indonesian nickel producers vary, and the real challenge lies with producers in the early stage of development [2].

增量需求有限 今年以来，镍价整体呈震荡偏弱运行态势。11月 21日，沪镍主力2601合约最低价下探至113980元/吨， 创下近5年历史新低。这一低点的出现，主要源于美联储降息预期下修、精炼镍库存加速累积以及供需 矛盾持续凸显。展望2026年，沪镍探底进程预计将延续。 利润层面，据SMM数据，截至2025年10月底，印尼MHP与高冰镍一体化工艺的盈利表现分化显著：生 产硫酸镍时，二者利润率分别为26.2%、6.9%；生产精炼镍时，利润率分别为9.5%、-6.3%，高冰镍工 艺已陷入亏损。 产量端数据同样印证这一趋势。 探底之路漫漫 2025年1—10月，在整个镍产业需求结构中，不锈钢、动力电池、合金、电镀的耗镍量占比分别为 78.2%、13.4%、5.6%、1.6%，合计98.6%。 不锈钢需求具备显著的地产后周期属性。当前国内房地产市场尚未出现实质性改善，对不锈钢需求的拖 累效应持续显现；而新兴产业对不锈钢的消费量级相对有限，这使得不锈钢市场仍需以存量需求为主。 在动力电池领域，受磷酸铁锂材料成本优势突出、热稳定性优异影响，三元材料的市场份额已持续缩减 至20%左右。固态电池能够同时破解安全性与续航里程两大 ...

知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 关注微信公众号 #NAME | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | 产业链期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年12月4日 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及价差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM A00铝 | 21800 | 21710 | 90.0 | 0.41% | 元/吨 | | SMM A00铝升贴水 | -50 | - 50 | 0.0 | / | 元/吨 | | 长江 铝A00 | 21790 | 21700 | 90.0 | 0.41% | 元/吨 | | 长江 铝A00 升贴水 | -60 | -60 | 0.0 | / | 元/吨 | | 氧化铝(山东)-平均价 | 2760 | 2760 | 0.0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 氧化铝(河南)-平均价 | 2850 | 2850 | 0.0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 氧化铝(山西)-平均价 | ...