1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views Copper - Overseas market liquidity is tightening, and the US dollar index is strong, suppressing copper prices. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom, but short - term rapid increases may inhibit demand. The subsequent focus is on demand changes and overseas liquidity, with the main contract supported at 84000 - 85000 [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract ranging from 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices will fluctuate between event - driven factors and weak fundamentals in the short term, and there is a risk of correction if inventories continue to accumulate [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a relatively strong volatile trend, with the main contract ranging from 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to scrap aluminum supply, procurement costs, and inventory reduction [6]. Zinc - Against the background of concerns about LME zinc squeezing, Shanghai zinc oscillated at a high level. In the short term, zinc prices will be oscillating and relatively strong, but the fundamentals may limit the upward space, with the main contract ranging from 22300 - 23000 [8]. Tin - Tin supply is tight, and demand is weak. With a strong fundamental outlook, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. Future trends depend on macro - level changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar [11]. Nickel - Macro sentiment is stable, and cost has some support, but the overall fundamentals are flat. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upward space of prices. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 118000 - 126000 [13]. Stainless Steel - Policy and macro - level driving forces are weakening, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The short - term market is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract ranging from 12500 - 13000 [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term strong fundamentals support the price, but the trading logic has switched recently. The price is expected to be weakly adjusted, with the main contract ranging from 76000 - 82000 [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 86590 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 685 yuan/ton, up 186.69 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Monthly Spread - The 2512 - 2601 spread was 30 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In October, electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, down 2.62% month - on - month. In September, imports were 33.43 million tons, up 26.50% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price was 21440 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 2608 yuan/ton, down 2.8 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. Monthly Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 35 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. Fundamental Data - In October, alumina production was 778.53 million tons, up 2.39% month - on - month, and electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, up 3.52% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 21400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The scrap - to - refined price difference in Foshan for broken primary aluminum was 1789 yuan/ton, up 0.56% from the previous day [6]. Monthly Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 115 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [6]. Fundamental Data - In September, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22580 yuan/ton, up 1.03% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 4758 yuan/ton, down 276.57 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. Monthly Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 55 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. Fundamental Data - In October, refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, up 2.85% month - on - month. In September, imports were 2.27 million tons, down 11.61% month - on - month [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price was 285400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 spread was 74 dollars/ton, up 85% from the previous day [11]. Monthly Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 30 yuan/ton, down 66.07% from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, tin ore imports were 8714 tons, down 15.13% month - on - month, and SMM refined tin production was 10510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121800 yuan/ton, down 0.16% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 spread was - 212 dollars/ton, down 3.25% from the previous day [13]. Monthly Spread - The 2512 - 2601 spread was - 240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production was 35900 tons, up 0.84% month - on - month. Imports were 38164 tons, up 124.36% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 12800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The futures - spot price difference was 425 yuan/ton, up 25% from the previous day [15]. Monthly Spread - The 2512 - 2601 spread was - 65 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [15]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 182.17 million tons, up 0.38% month - on - month. Imports were 12.03 million tons, up 2.70% month - on - month [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 80608 yuan/ton, down 0.12% from the previous day. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate benchmark) was 280 yuan/ton, down 83.53% from the previous day [17]. Monthly Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 1480 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data - In October, lithium carbonate production was 92260 tons, up 5.73% month - on - month. The total inventory was 84234 tons, down 10.90% month - on - month [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - After the implementation of interest rate cuts and tariff policies, the copper market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The supply shortage of copper mines strengthens the price bottom, and downstream demand shows strong resilience. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom, but short - term rapid increases may suppress demand. The main contract should focus on the support around 87,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The aluminum oxide market shows regional differentiation, with the north showing signs of bottoming and the south continuing to decline. The supply pressure is significant, and the demand is weak. The cost support is expected to weaken, and the price is expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is strong, supported by macro factors and demand in some fields, and is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract ranging from 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The cast aluminum alloy market maintains a high - level oscillation. The cost support is prominent, and the supply shows a contraction trend. The demand shows a mild recovery, and the social inventory accumulates weekly. The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation, with the main contract ranging from 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - After the macro positive expectations are fulfilled, the zinc price oscillates. The supply is expected to increase limitedly due to compressed smelting profits, and the demand is stable. There is a risk of a short squeeze in LME, and the export window is intermittently open. The zinc price has short - term support but may continue to oscillate without a clear turning point in the supply - side logic [9]. Tin - The supply of tin mines remains tight, and the demand is weak. Powell's hawkish statement may cause the tin price to fall in the short term. Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The subsequent trend depends on macro factors and the supply recovery in Myanmar [11]. Nickel - The nickel price oscillates. The production of refined nickel is at a high level, the mine price is firm, but the supply of nickel ore in the Philippines is expected to decrease. The demand for stainless steel is weak, and the industry profit is shrinking. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market oscillates and weakens. The nickel ore price is firm, but the supply in the Philippines may decrease. The nickel - iron and chromium - iron prices are under pressure, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand is weak, and the inventory reduction is slow. The price is expected to weakly oscillate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is strong. The auction price of lithium mines provides support. The supply shows a slight decrease, and the demand is unexpectedly optimistic. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to remain strong in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 83,000 - 87,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 88,065 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 883 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 21,200 yuan/ton, up 0.14% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 2,515 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM ADC12 price is 21,300 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day [5]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,250 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 4,757 yuan/ton [9]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price is 284,000 yuan/ton, down 0.42% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 15,249.89 yuan/ton [11]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122,200 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1,540 yuan/ton [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price is 12,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price is 80,000 yuan/ton, up 1.07% from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data Production - **Copper**: The electrolytic copper production in September was 1.121 million tons, down 4.31% from the previous month [1]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum oxide production in September was 7.6037 million tons, down 1.74% from the previous month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, down 3.16% from the previous month [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in September was 661,000 tons, up 7.48% from the previous month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 283,000 tons, up 4.43% from the previous month [5]. - **Zinc**: The refined zinc production in September was 600,100 tons, down 4.17% from the previous month [9]. - **Tin**: The SMM refined tin production in September was 10,510 tons, down 31.71% from the previous month [11]. - **Nickel**: The production of refined nickel products in China was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% from the previous month [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 1.8217 million tons, up 0.38% from the previous month [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production of lithium carbonate in September was 87,260 tons, up 2.37% from the previous month [17]. Inventory - **Copper**: The domestic social inventory of copper is 182,600 tons, up 0.55% from the previous week; the SHFE inventory is 104,800 tons, down 4.94% from the previous week [1]. - **Aluminum**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China is 619,000 tons, up 0.16% from the previous day; the LME inventory is 460,000 tons, down 0.70% from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 54,800 tons, up 0.18% from the previous week [5]. - **Zinc**: The seven - place social inventory of zinc ingots in China is 161,500 tons, down 0.37% from the previous week; the LME inventory is 35,000 tons, down 0.85% from the previous day [9]. - **Tin**: The SHEF inventory of tin is 5,766 tons, up 1.32% from the previous week; the social inventory is 6,828 tons, down 2.69% from the previous week [11]. - **Nickel**: The SHFE inventory of nickel is 36,075 tons, up 4.81% from the previous week; the social inventory is 48,802 tons, up 2.29% from the previous week [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The social inventory of 300 - series (Wuxi + Foshan) is 492,200 tons, down 0.55% from the previous week; the SHFE warrant is 73,800 tons, unchanged from the previous day [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The total inventory of lithium carbonate in September was 94,539 tons, up 0.38% from the previous month [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - After the implementation of interest rate cuts and tariff policies, the copper market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The shortage of copper ore supply strengthens the price bottom, but short - term rapid price increases may suppress demand. The long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom, and the main contract should focus on the support around 87,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate. Macro factors such as Sino - US economic and trade consultations and domestic policies support market confidence, while the supply - demand structure shows that supply is restricted and demand has structural highlights. Alumina prices are expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton, and the market has shown signs of bottoming out [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market continues to oscillate at a high level. Cost support is prominent, supply is shrinking, demand is moderately recovering, and social inventory is accumulating. The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate. The supply is relatively loose, but the smelting profit is compressed, and the subsequent supply increase may be limited. The demand is generally stable, and the LME has the risk of a short squeeze, which supports the zinc price. The main contract reference range is 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - Tin prices may decline in the short term due to the hawkish statement on interest rate cuts. The supply of tin ore is tight, but the demand is weak. If the supply in Myanmar recovers well, tin prices may weaken; otherwise, they will continue to run strongly [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to oscillate. Macro factors are stable, but the inventory is accumulating, and the medium - term supply is loose. The main contract reference range is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to be weak and oscillate. Macro sentiment has improved, but downstream demand during the peak season is insufficient, and the supply side has pressure from production scheduling and social inventory. The main contract reference range is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain strong in the short term. The downstream demand is better than expected, and the industry is continuously destocking. The main contract reference range is 83,000 - 87,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 88,065 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 883 yuan/ton, and the month - to - month spread shows different changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production was 112.10 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.31%. The import volume was 33.43 million tons, an increase of 7 million tons compared with the previous month. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 0.38% [1]. Aluminum and Alumina Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 21,200 yuan/ton, up 0.14%. The import profit and loss is - 2,515 yuan/ton, and the month - to - month spread has different changes [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production was 760.37 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.74%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 361.48 million tons, a decrease of 3.16%. The import volume increased by 13.57%, and the export volume increased by 13.07% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,300 yuan/ton, up 0.47%. The month - to - month spread shows different changes [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.48%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.30 million tons, an increase of 4.43%. The import volume of non - wrought aluminum alloy ingots increased by 15.77%, and the export volume decreased by 19.24% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,250 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The import profit and loss is - 4,757 yuan/ton, and the month - to - month spread has different changes [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production was 60.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.17%. The import volume decreased by 11.61%, and the export volume increased by 696.78% [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 284,000 yuan/ton, down 0.42%. The LME 0 - 3 premium is 10.02 US dollars/ton, down 74.95% [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, the import of tin ore was 8,714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a decrease of 31.71%. The export volume increased by 6.59%, and the average operating rate decreased by 31.77% [11]. Nickel Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122,200 yuan/ton, up 0.25%. The import profit and loss is - 1,540 yuan/ton, and the month - to - month spread has different changes [13]. Supply and Inventory - The production of refined nickel products is 32,200 tons, an increase of 1.26%. SHFE inventory is 36,075 tons, an increase of 4.81%. Social inventory is 48,802 tons, an increase of 2.29% [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot - futures price difference is 385 yuan/ton, up 25.40% [15]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) is 182.17 million tons, an increase of 0.38%. The import volume increased by 2.70%, and the export volume decreased by 6.55% [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 80,000 yuan/ton, up 1.07%. The basis is - 1,740 yuan/ton, down 5.45% [17]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, an increase of 2.37%. The demand was 116,801 tons, an increase of 12.28%. The import volume decreased by 10.30%, and the export volume decreased by 59.12% [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Copper - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and the market is watching the Sino-US summit. The copper price was strong yesterday. In the medium to long term, the supply-demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center. In the short term, the rapid increase in price suppresses demand. The market should focus on the marginal changes in demand and Sino-US tariffs, with the main contract supported around 87,000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market has shown signs of stabilizing at a low level, with futures prices rebounding slightly and spot market trading activity increasing. The supply pressure is significant, and the demand is weak. The alumina price is expected to remain under pressure in the short term, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The aluminum price has continued to be strong, breaking through 21,300 yuan/ton. The market is in a tight balance, and the aluminum price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price and oscillated at a high level. The cost support is strong, and the supply-demand relationship is in a tight balance. The inventory is gradually decreasing. The ADC12 price is expected to remain strongly oscillating in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Overseas interest rates were cut as expected, and the macro environment is warm. The zinc price oscillated strongly yesterday. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is stable. The LME has the risk of a short squeeze, and the export window for zinc ingots is intermittently open. The zinc price is supported in the short term but may continue to oscillate [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. Powell's hawkish remarks on the December interest rate cut may cause the tin price to fall in the short term. Considering the strong fundamentals, a low-buying strategy on dips is recommended. The market should focus on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [11]. Nickel - The nickel price oscillated yesterday. The macro sentiment has improved, and the ore price is firm, providing cost support. However, the inventory accumulation exerts some pressure. The nickel price is expected to oscillate in the medium term, with the main contract ranging from 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price oscillated and rose slightly yesterday. The macro environment is positive, but the nickel-iron and ferrochrome prices are under pressure. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The stainless steel price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price was strong yesterday. The production has increased, and the demand is optimistic. The raw material supply is tight, and the inventory is decreasing. The lithium carbonate price is expected to remain strong in the short term, with the market watching whether it can break through 83,000 yuan/ton [16]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 87,905 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.16%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to -60 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, the electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.31%. The import volume was 334,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 26.50% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 21,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.05%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to -30 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, the alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.74%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.16% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The SMM ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton. The average price difference between refined and scrap aluminum in Foshan decreased by 107 yuan/ton to 1,774 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.69% [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 661,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.48%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 283,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.43% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 20 yuan/ton to 22,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.09%. The SMM 0 zinc ingot premium increased by 5 yuan/ton to -40 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, the refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.17%. The export volume was 2,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 696.78% [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The SMM 1 tin price increased by 900 yuan/ton to 285,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.32%. The SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged at 200 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, the domestic tin ore import volume decreased by 15.13% month-on-month. The SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 31.71% [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 121,900 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.20%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,400 yuan/ton [13]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production in September was 32,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.26%. The import volume was 17,010 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.00% [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained unchanged at 12,950 yuan/ton. The 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to -15 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of 300-series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 manufacturers) was 1.8217 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.38%. The import volume was 120,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.70% [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 79,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83%. The SMM industrial-grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 76,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.85% [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, the lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.37%. The demand was 116,801 tons, a month-on-month increase of 12.28% [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views Copper - The central bank's interest rate cut and the upcoming Sino - US meeting are factors affecting the market. The shortage of copper ore supply supports the price bottom, and the psychological price ceiling of downstream buyers is rising. Although short - term price increases may suppress demand, in the long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of the copper price bottom [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is stabilizing at a low level, but the supply is abundant and the demand is weak, so the price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term. The aluminum price is strong, with a tight - balance fundamentals, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short - term [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The cost of aluminum alloy is rigidly supported, and the supply - demand is in a tight - balance. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term, but high inventory and policy uncertainties are constraints [5]. Zinc - The macro - environment is warm, and the supply of zinc is gradually increasing, but the increase may be limited. The demand is stable, and the LME has the risk of a short squeeze. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. Due to the hawkish statement on interest rate cuts, the short - term tin price may fall, but it may rise if the supply from Myanmar does not recover well [11]. Nickel - The macro - environment is improving, and the cost is supported by the firm ore price. However, the inventory accumulation restricts the price increase. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [13]. Stainless Steel - The macro - environment is positive, but the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak and fluctuate in the short - term [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are improving, with increasing demand and tight raw material supply. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term, but there is pressure at the 83,000 level [16]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.16% to 87,905 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 40 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, and the import volume increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.05% to 21,170 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 194.5 yuan/ton [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton, and the scrap - refined price difference in Foshan decreased [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 55 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.09% to 22,290 yuan/ton, and the import loss decreased by 205.67 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [9]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.32% to 285,200 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 60% [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 160 yuan/ton to - 550 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the tin ore import decreased by 15.13% to 8714 tons, and the SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10,510 tons [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.20% to 121,900 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 226 yuan/ton [13]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel decreased by 0.62% to 116,448 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32,200 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased by 4.81% to 36,075 tons [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,950 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 6.55% to 41.85 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.83% to 79,150 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 320 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87,260 tons, and the demand increased by 12.28% to 116,801 tons [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and there is still room for further monetary policy easing, but the subsequent rate - cut rhythm may slow down. The upcoming Sino - US high - level meeting in Busan, South Korea may bring changes to tariffs. - The shortage of copper ore supply strengthens the bottom center of prices. If the prices of by - products such as sulfuric acid continue to fall and TC remains low, smelters may face cash - flow losses and experience phased production cuts. It is expected that the domestic refined copper output in October may decline month - on - month. - Downstream demand for copper is resilient. Although there is a fear of high prices, more purchase orders will be released after the price drops. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices, but short - term rapid increases may suppress demand [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market has shown signs of stabilizing at a low level, with futures prices rebounding slightly and spot market trading activity increasing. However, the supply pressure is still significant, and the demand is weak. The full - caliber inventory has increased by 64,000 tons this week. The cost support of bauxite is gradually weakening, and the profit margin of the industry has shrunk. It is expected that the alumina price will continue to be under pressure in the short term, with the main contract oscillating between 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton. - The aluminum price has continued to be strong, and the spot market discount has gradually widened, indicating that high prices are suppressing actual purchases. The macro - environment is generally favorable, and the fundamentals are in a tight - balance pattern. It is expected that the aluminum price will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20800 - 21400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy followed the high - level oscillation of the aluminum price. The cost support is prominent, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, pushing up the procurement cost. The supply - demand is in a tight - balance pattern. The inventory is in a slow de - stocking process. It is expected that the ADC12 price will maintain a relatively strong oscillation in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Overseas interest rates were cut as expected, and the macro - atmosphere is warm. The supply - side logic of zinc has shifted from zinc ore to zinc ingots, and the subsequent supply increase may be limited due to compressed smelting profits. The demand is stable without exceeding expectations. The LME has a risk of a short squeeze, and the export window of zinc ingots is intermittently open. The zinc price may be supported in the short term but will likely maintain an oscillation without a clear turning point in the supply - side logic [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the smelting processing fee is at a low level. The demand is still weak, and although AI computing power and the photovoltaic industry have driven some tin consumption, it is difficult to make up for the decline in traditional consumption. Powell's hawkish statement on the December interest - rate cut may cause the tin price to fall in the short term. If the supply in Myanmar recovers well, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it may continue to be strong [11]. Nickel - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp and ended the balance - sheet reduction. The Sino - US meeting will boost the market. The production of refined nickel remains high, and the ore price is firm. The nickel - iron price is under pressure, and the stainless - steel demand is weak. The downstream ternary still has inventory - building demand, but the medium - term supply may increase. The inventory is accumulating. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate in the medium term, with the main contract ranging from 118000 - 126000 [13]. Stainless Steel - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp and ended the balance - sheet reduction. The Sino - US meeting will boost the market. The ore price is firm, and the nickel - iron price is under pressure. The chromium - iron market is weak and stable. The supply pressure of stainless steel is increasing, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The social inventory is slowly decreasing. It is expected that the stainless - steel price will oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 12500 - 13000 [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate futures price has been relatively strong, with the main price center moving up. The production has been increasing, and the downstream demand is optimistic. The raw - material inventory is being depleted quickly, and the supply of concentrate is tight. It is expected that the short - term market will remain strong, and attention should be paid to whether the price can break through 83,000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 87,905 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.16%. - The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton. - The SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 290 yuan/ton to 87,850 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.33%. - The SMM wet - process copper price decreased by 155 yuan/ton to 87,660 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.18%. - The refined - scrap price difference increased by 324.15 yuan/ton to 4299 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.15% [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, the electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, a decrease of 50,500 tons or 4.31% compared with the previous month. - The electrolytic copper import volume was 334,300 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons or 26.50% compared with the previous month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 21,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.05%. - The import loss increased by 194.5 yuan/ton to 2914 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, the alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, a decrease of 135,000 tons or 1.74% compared with the previous month. - The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a decrease of 118,000 tons or 3.16% compared with the previous month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum decreased by 107 yuan/ton to 1774 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.69% [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 661,000 tons, an increase of 46,000 tons or 7.48% compared with the previous month. - The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 283,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons or 4.43% compared with the previous month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 20 yuan/ton to 22,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.09%. - The import loss decreased by 205.67 yuan/ton to 5088 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, the refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, a decrease of 26,100 tons or 4.17% compared with the previous month. - The refined zinc import volume was 227,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons or 11.61% compared with the previous month [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The SMM 1 tin price increased by 900 yuan/ton to 285,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.32%. - The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 60 dollars/ton to 40 dollars/ton, a decrease of 60% [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, the tin ore import volume was 8714 tons, a decrease of 1553 tons or 15.13% compared with the previous month. - The SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a decrease of 4880 tons or 31.71% compared with the previous month [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 121,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.20%. - The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 925 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16% [13]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, an increase of 400 tons or 1.26% compared with the previous month. - The refined nickel import volume was 17,010 tons, a decrease of 526 tons or 3.00% compared with the previous month [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained unchanged at 12,950 yuan/ton. - The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron ex - factory average price decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 925 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16% [14]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 1.8217 million tons, an increase of 6900 tons or 0.38% compared with the previous month. - The Indonesian 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 423,500 tons, an increase of 1500 tons or 0.36% compared with the previous month [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 79,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83%. - The SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 76,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.85% [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, the lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, an increase of 2020 tons or 2.37% compared with the previous month. - The lithium carbonate demand was 116,801 tons, an increase of 12,778 tons or 12.28% compared with the previous month [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The preliminary consensus between China and the US boosts market optimism. In the long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of the copper price bottom, but short - term rapid increases may suppress demand. The main contract price is expected to range between 87,000 - 89,000 yuan/ton. [1] Aluminum - The alumina price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is likely to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton. [3] Aluminum Alloy - Cost support and supply - demand balance drive the price up, but high inventory and policy uncertainties are constraints. The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation, with the main contract between 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton. [5] Zinc - Zinc prices are supported by macro - level interest - rate cut expectations and LME squeeze risks. However, the supply is relatively loose, and the price may oscillate without a clear inflection point in the supply logic. The main contract is expected to range from 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton. [9] Tin - Strong supply fundamentals support the tin price to oscillate strongly. Future trends depend on macro - level changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar. [11] Nickel - Macro - level sentiment weakens slightly, but cost support exists. With inventory accumulation, the price is expected to oscillate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. [13] Stainless Steel - The policy is stable, demand during the peak season is weak, and supply pressure may increase. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. [14] Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals have improved, with a supply - demand gap during the peak season. The short - term price is expected to be strong, with the main focus on whether it can break through 83,000 yuan/ton and 85,000 yuan/ton. [17] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.35% to 87,905 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 9.22% to 3,975 yuan/ton. [1] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, while imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons. [1] Weekly Fundamental Data - The import copper concentrate index decreased by 4.22% to - 42.70 dollars/ton, and domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 0.38% to 67.81 million tons. [1] Daily Fundamental Data - LME inventory decreased by 1.03% to 13.46 million tons, and COMEX inventory decreased by 0.06% to 34.77 million short tons. [1] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price remained unchanged at 21,160 yuan/ton. The alumina prices in Shandong, Guangxi, and Guizhou decreased. [3] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons. [3] Weekly Fundamental Data - The aluminum profile开工率 increased by 0.37% to 53.70%, and the aluminum foil开工率 decreased by 0.55% to 71.90%. [3] Daily Fundamental Data - LME inventory decreased by 0.77% to 46.6 million tons. [3] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained unchanged. The refined - scrap price differences in various regions increased. [5] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons. [5] Weekly Fundamental Data - The recycled aluminum alloy开工率 increased by 7.73% to 57.54%. [5] Daily Fundamental Data - The daily inventory of recycled aluminum alloy in Foshan decreased by 0.20% to 33,257 tons. [5] Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.27% to 22,270 yuan/ton. The import loss increased to - 5,294 yuan/ton. [9] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons. [9] Weekly Fundamental Data - The galvanizing开工率 decreased by 0.57% to 57.48%. [9] Daily Fundamental Data - LME inventory decreased by 4.86% to 3.5 million tons. [9] Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.28% to 284,300 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 8.14% to - 14,746.45 yuan/ton. [11] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% to 8,714 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10,510 tons. [11] Inventory Data - SHEF inventory increased by 1.32% to 5,766 tons, and social inventory decreased by 2.69% to 6,828 tons. [11] Nickel Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.734% to 122,150 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 18.314% to - 898 yuan/ton. [13] Production and Inventory Data - China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32,200 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 4.81% to 36,075 tons. [13] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) decreased by 0.38% to 12,950 yuan/ton. [14] Raw Material Prices - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.22% to 927 yuan/nickel point. [14] Monthly Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons. [14] Weekly Fundamental Data - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.37% to 49.49 million tons. [14] Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 2.55% to 78,500 yuan/ton. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price decreased by 2.10% to 825 dollars/ton. [17] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87,260 tons, and demand increased by 12.28% to 116,801 tons. [17] Inventory Data - The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 0.38% to 84,539 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 15.29% to 60,998 tons. [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - The preliminary consensus between China and the US boosts market optimism, and copper prices hit a new high this year. In the short - term, the negotiation rhythm will drive trading. The 9 - month CPI further consolidates the expectation of interest rate cuts in October, with 2 possible cuts this year and the Fed stopping balance - sheet reduction. - Tight copper ore supply supports the price bottom. If by - product prices like sulfuric acid continue to fall and TC remains low, smelters may cut production. Downstream demand has strong resilience. In the long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of copper prices, while short - term rapid increases may suppress demand. The main contract should focus on the support around 86,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Alumina futures prices rebounded slightly, and spot market trading became more active. Supply pressure is significant due to high domestic operating capacity and an open import window. Demand is weak, and the full - caliber inventory increased by 64,000 tons last week. With the end of the rainy season in Guinea, cost support from the ore end is weakening. Short - term alumina prices will be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton [3]. - Aluminum prices were strong, breaking through 21,300 yuan/ton. The macro - environment is mixed, and the fundamentals are in a tight - balance. Supply of ingots is restricted by the high direct - supply ratio of molten aluminum, and demand shows resilience in the peak season. Aluminum ingot inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 626,000 tons on October 28. Short - term Shanghai aluminum will maintain a strong oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy prices oscillated strongly, with cost support becoming more prominent. Tight scrap aluminum supply pushed up procurement costs, and the refined - scrap price difference narrowed. The supply - demand is in a tight - balance. Supply is restricted by raw - material circulation and policy uncertainty, and demand shows stable resilience. Inventory is decreasing. Short - term ADC12 prices will maintain a strong oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The preliminary consensus between China and the US warms the macro - atmosphere, and zinc prices oscillated strongly. The supply - side logic of loose supply has spread from zinc ore to zinc ingots, and subsequent supply growth may be limited due to compressed smelting profits. Demand is stable, and there is a risk of a short squeeze in LME zinc, supporting zinc prices. The export window for zinc ingots is intermittently open. Short - term zinc prices have support at the bottom, but the fundamentals have limited elasticity for continuous upward movement. The main contract should refer to 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - Tin ore supply is tight, and processing fees remain low. In September, domestic tin ore imports decreased month - on - month. The change in Myanmar's tax method is expected to limit the improvement of tin ore supply this year. Demand is still weak, and although AI and the photovoltaic industry drive some consumption, it cannot make up for the decline in traditional consumption. Tin prices will oscillate strongly, and the follow - up depends on macro - changes and Myanmar's supply recovery [10]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market oscillated, and refined nickel prices rose slightly. Overseas, the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts is rising; domestically, the 14th Five - Year Plan brings policy expectations. Refined nickel production remains high. Ore prices are firm, but nickel - iron prices are under pressure, and industry profits are shrinking. Stainless steel demand is weak, while downstream ternary materials still have restocking needs. Inventory is accumulating. Short - term prices will oscillate, with the main contract in the range of 120,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market oscillated narrowly, and spot prices were slightly adjusted down. Overseas, the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts is rising; domestically, policies are mainly for stability. Nickel ore prices are firm, but nickel - iron prices are under pressure, and chromium - iron markets are weak. Supply pressure will increase in October, and demand improvement is not obvious. Social inventory is decreasing slowly. Short - term prices will oscillate weakly, with the main contract in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures were strong, with the main contract LC2601 rising 2.53% to 81,900 yuan/ton. After entering the peak season, there is a supply - demand gap, which is expected to widen in October. Production is increasing, mainly from new salt - lake projects and increased lithium - spodumene subcontracting. Downstream demand is optimistic, and raw - material inventory is decreasing. Short - term prices will run strongly, with the upper limit first observing the capital performance around 82,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton, and then 85,000 yuan/ton if it breaks through [16]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 2.08% to 88,520 yuan/ton; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 55 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 15.30% to 4,379 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 spread decreased to - 25.97 dollars/ton. The import profit and loss improved to - 786 yuan/ton [1]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 40 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton; the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton; the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 60 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, a 4.31% month - on - month decrease; imports were 334,300 tons, a 26.50% month - on - month increase. The import copper concentrate index decreased by 4.22% to - 42.70 dollars/ton. Domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 0.38% to 678,100 tons. The electrolytic copper rod - making start - up rate decreased to 61.55%, while the recycled copper rod - making start - up rate increased to 18.29%. Domestic social inventory decreased by 1.13% to 184,500 tons; bonded - area inventory decreased by 5.02% to 92,800 tons; SHFE inventory decreased by 4.94% to 104,800 tons; LME inventory decreased by 0.28% to 136,000 tons; COMEX inventory increased by 0.13% to 348,000 short tons; SHFE warrants increased by 0.92% to 35,400 tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.24% to 21,160 yuan/ton; SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton. The average price of alumina in Shandong decreased by 0.71% to 2,795 yuan/ton [3]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread remained at - 20 yuan/ton; the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton; the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton; the 2602 - 2603 spread increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 15 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, a 1.74% month - on - month decrease; electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a 3.16% month - on - month decrease; imports were 246,800 tons, a 13.57% month - on - month increase; exports were 29,000 tons, a 13.07% month - on - month increase. The aluminum profile start - up rate increased by 0.37% to 53.70%; the aluminum cable start - up rate increased by 0.63% to 64.40%; the aluminum plate - strip start - up rate decreased by 1.47% to 67.00%; the aluminum foil start - up rate decreased by 0.55% to 71.90%; the primary aluminum alloy start - up rate increased by 1.03% to 59.00%. China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.16% to 626,000 tons; LME inventory decreased by 0.81% to 469,000 tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan for broken primary aluminum increased by 3.32% to 1,869 yuan/ton [4]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 25 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton; the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 75 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton; the 2601 - 2602 spread increased by 40 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton; the 2602 - 2603 spread decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 661,000 tons, a 7.48% month - on - month increase; primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 283,000 tons, a 4.43% month - on - month increase; scrap aluminum production was 797,600 tons, an 8.16% month - on - month increase; unforged aluminum alloy ingot imports were 82,200 tons, a 15.77% month - on - month increase; exports were 23,500 tons, a 19.24% month - on - month decrease. The recycled aluminum alloy start - up rate increased by 7.73% to 57.54%; the primary aluminum alloy start - up rate increased by 4.60% to 56.57%. The recycled aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory decreased by 0.18% to 54,700 tons. The daily inventory in Foshan increased by 0.23% to 33,323 tons; in Ningbo, it decreased by 1.27% to 13,179 tons; in Wuxi, it decreased by 7.09% to 1,873 tons [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.09% to 22,210 yuan/ton; the premium remained at - 55 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss improved to - 5,139 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 7.34 [8]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 55 yuan/ton; the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton; the 2601 - 2602 spread remained unchanged at - 35 yuan/ton; the 2602 - 2603 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, a 4.17% month - on - month decrease; imports were 22,700 tons, an 11.61% month - on - month decrease; exports were 2,500 tons, a 696.78% month - on - month increase. The galvanizing start - up rate decreased to 57.48%; the die - casting zinc alloy start - up rate decreased to 53.13%; the zinc oxide start - up rate decreased to 56.36%. China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 1.09% to 163,500 tons; LME inventory decreased by 1.46% to 37,000 tons [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.57% to 283,500 yuan/ton; the SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 16.67% to 250 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 43.00% to 143 dollars/ton [10]. Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit and Loss - The import profit and loss worsened by 4.00% to - 16,052.47 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 7.92 [10]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 16.33% to - 570 yuan/ton; the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 100.00% to - 200 yuan/ton; the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 80.00% to - 90 yuan/ton; the 2602 - 2603 spread increased by 400.00% to 350 yuan/ton [10]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - In September, tin ore imports were 8,714 tons, a 15.13% month - on - month decrease; SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a 31.71% month - on - month decrease; refined tin imports were 1,269 tons, a 2.08% month - on - month decrease; exports were 1,748 tons, a 6.59% month - on - month increase; Indonesian refined tin exports were 4,800 tons, a 50.00% month - on - month increase. The SMM refined tin average start - up rate decreased by 31.77% to 43.60%; the SMM solder enterprise start - up rate increased by 2.19% to 74.80%. The average price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan increased by 0.59% to 271,500 yuan/ton; the Yunnan 40% tin concentrate processing fee remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton [10]. Inventory Change - SHEF weekly inventory increased by 1.32% to 5,766 tons; social inventory decreased by 2.69% to 6,828 tons; SHEF daily warrants increased by 1.53% to 5,652 tons; LME daily inventory decreased by 0.91% to 2,725 tons [10]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.12% to 123,050 yuan/ton; 1 Jinchuan nickel price increased by 0.08% to 124,300 yuan/ton; the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium decreased by 3.92% to 2,450 yuan/ton; 1 imported nickel price increased by 0.16% to 122,250 yuan/ton; the 1 imported nickel premium remained at 400 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 spread decreased to - 194 dollars/ton. The futures import profit and loss improved by 38.59% to - 759 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 7.98. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.21% to 929 yuan/nickel point [12]. Production Cost - The cost of integrated MHP - produced electrowon nickel decreased by 0.62% to 116,448 yuan/ton; the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte - produced electrowon nickel decreased by

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated, with a weekly increase of 0.68%. Domestic economy has resilience, and the prosperity of new energy, semiconductor, and photovoltaic industries has increased; overseas uncertainties remain high, and there are still expectations of interest rate cuts in the later period [6]. - In terms of supply, in 2025, the RKAB approval quota provides sufficient raw material guarantee for smelters, but the risk of new policy disturbances still exists. In September, China's nickel imports were large, and the output of nickel - iron was at a low level; Indonesia's nickel - iron production remained high. The operating rate of nickel sulfate enterprises rebounded, and the output increased slightly month - on - month. In September 2025, the total output of domestic refined nickel was 36,795 tons, a slight increase month - on - month [6]. - In terms of demand, in September, the stainless - steel market continued to recover. It is expected that in October, stainless - steel production will still be restricted, with a moderate rebound. The domestic stainless - steel inventory is still high. The operating rate of large stainless - steel manufacturers has rebounded, and the inventory decreased first and then increased. In the new - energy industry chain, the market share of ternary batteries is declining, but the output of ternary materials increased significantly from August to September [6]. - In terms of inventory, last week, LME nickel inventory increased month - on - month, and SHFE inventory increased slightly month - on - month. The social inventory of refined nickel was 47,505 tons, an increase from the previous week [6]. - In the short term, the RKAB approval quota in 2025 provides sufficient raw material guarantee for smelters, but the risk of new policy disturbances still exists. Trade disputes have an emotional impact on the market. Returning to the fundamentals, imported nickel remains at a high level, and inventory has increased. Indonesian domestic policies have disturbances to supply, but have not actually affected it yet. The output of downstream stainless - steel has improved marginally after falling from a high level, and the inventory has also improved marginally. The nickel price will fluctuate within a range as a whole [6]. - The strategy is to conduct short - term trading on the SHFE nickel 2512 contract. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options. Later, pay attention to changes in the mine end, stainless - steel output, trade disputes, and Indonesian exports [6]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Chain Structure - The nickel industry chain includes nickel ore (red - soil nickel ore, sulfide nickel ore), wet - process intermediates, nickel - iron, high - grade nickel matte, nickel sulfate, electrolytic nickel, and downstream products such as stainless steel, batteries, electroplating, and alloys [8]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - The report shows figures of LME nickel premium/discount (spot/3 - month, in US dollars per ton) and SHFE electrolytic nickel main - contract basis (in yuan per ton) [10]. 3. Supply Side Nickel Ore - In 2024, China's imports of Philippine nickel ore decreased significantly, with imports of 36.5763 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.7%. In August and September 2025, imports were 634,670 tons and 611,440 tons respectively, showing a seasonal increase [18]. Nickel Pig Iron - In 2024, Indonesia's nickel - iron output was 1.5138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. In September 2025, the output was 156,500 tons, a slight increase month - on - month. In 2024, domestic nickel - iron output was 296,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.9%. In September 2025, the output was 21,700 tons, a slight decrease month - on - month and still at a low level [21]. - In August and September 2025, China's nickel - iron imports were 874,000 tons and 1.085 million tons respectively, showing a significant month - on - month increase. In September 2025, the nickel - pig - iron inventory was 19,900 tons, remaining stable [25]. Refined Nickel - With the continuous release of electrowinning nickel production capacity, in 2024, the supply of pure nickel continued to expand. In September 2025, the total domestic refined - nickel output was 36,795 tons. From July to August 2025, the apparent consumption was 29,883.05 tons and 37,551.45 tons respectively [28]. - In September 2025, China's nickel imports were 278,600 tons, at a high level; exports were 17,000 tons, a slight month - on - month decline [31]. Intermediate Products - According to MYSTEEL research statistics, in September 2025, the output of Indonesia's MHP (nickel - cobalt hydroxide) was 41,600 tons, a slight month - on - month decline but still at a historical high [37]. - The growth rate of Indonesia's high - grade nickel matte output has been relatively under pressure this year. In 2024, the output was 267,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.54%. In August and September 2025, the output was 20,300 tons and 21,300 tons respectively. From the project planning perspective, there are many planned production capacities for intermediate products from 2025 to 2027 [43]. - In September 2025, the output of nickel sulfate was 39,045.4 tons, an increase month - on - month. From August to September 2025, the imports of nickel sulfate were 30,292 tons and 29,533 tons respectively [47]. 4. Demand Side Stainless - Steel Demand - In 2024, the release of stainless - steel production capacity was relatively slow. The output of 43 sample stainless - steel enterprises was 38.2582 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.43%. In September 2025, the stainless - steel output was 3.4267 million tons, showing an increase after falling from a high level. The latest total social inventory of stainless steel was 1,005,282 tons, an increase month - on - month [54]. Cathode Material Demand - In 2024, the output of ternary precursors was 773,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. From the perspective of the structure of power batteries, the market share of ternary batteries has shrunk to nearly 20% in terms of both output and installed capacity. It is expected that in 2025, driven by the trade - in policy, the growth of total terminal demand will still have inertia. In September 2025, the output of ternary cathode materials was 75,900 tons, continuing to rebound from a low level [59]. 5. Inventory Side Social and Bonded - Area Inventory - As of October 17, 2025, the social inventory of refined nickel was 47,505 tons, an increase from the previous week [64]. Exchange Inventory - As of October 22, 2025, the LME nickel inventory was 250,476 tons, a slight increase month - on - month. As of October 23, 2025, the SHFE inventory was 26,881 tons, a slight increase month - on - month [69].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Copper prices strengthened due to improved market risk appetite following the Sino - US trade talks. Macro factors like tariff policies, overseas liquidity, and COMEX - LME spread are important. Fundamentally, tight copper ore supply supports prices, but high prices may suppress downstream demand. The main contract is expected to find support between 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains weak, with supply pressure and weak demand. Spot prices are expected to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate, with the main contract in the range of 20,700 - 21,300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy prices showed a strong - oscillating trend. Cost support is significant, but high inventory and policy uncertainty restrict price increases. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong - oscillating pattern, with the main contract in the range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Due to LME zinc market concerns and Sino - US trade talks, zinc prices rebounded. Supply is expected to be loose, and demand has no outstanding performance. Short - term prices may be driven by macro factors, but the upward elasticity is limited, with the main contract in the range of 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - Tin prices continued to oscillate at a high level. Supply is tight, and demand is weak. Future price trends depend on the recovery of Burmese tin ore supply in the fourth quarter [10]. Nickel - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Macro factors are temporarily stable, cost has support, but inventory accumulation exerts pressure [12]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices are expected to weakly oscillate, with the main contract in the range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton. There is cost support at the ore end, but demand during the peak season is not strongly boosted [14]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to run strongly in the short - term, with the main contract in the range of 76,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton. The fundamentals have improved, with strong demand during the peak season and continued destocking [16]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 85,490 yuan/ton, up 0.63% from the previous day. The opening discount decreased. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 7.02% to 3,366 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production was 112.10 million tons, down 4.31% month - on - month. The import volume increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 3.11% to 68.07 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 21,040 yuan/ton, up 0.29% from the previous day. Alumina prices in various regions declined slightly [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production was 760.37 million tons, down 1.74% month - on - month. Electrolytic aluminum production was 361.48 million tons, down 3.16% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price rose to 21,200 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day. The refined - scrap price differences in various regions increased to varying degrees [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.30 million tons, up 4.43% month - on - month [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,100 yuan/ton, up 0.91% from the previous day. The import loss increased to 6,393 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production was 60.01 million tons, down 4.17% month - on - month. The import volume decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [8]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price fell to 280,000 yuan/ton, down 0.36% from the previous day. The import loss increased to 16,213.05 yuan/ton [10]. Fundamental Data - In September, tin ore imports were 8,714 tons, down 15.13% month - on - month. SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month [10]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 122,150 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day. The import loss decreased to 670 yuan/ton [12]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production in September was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month. The import volume decreased by 3.00% to 17,010 tons [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained at 13,000 yuan/ton. The futures - spot price difference decreased to 405 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 182.17 million tons, up 0.38% month - on - month. The import volume increased by 2.70% to 12.03 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 74,800 yuan/ton, up 0.61% from the previous day. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate benchmark) decreased to - 1,980 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, up 2.37% month - on - month. The demand was 116,801 tons, up 12.28% month - on - month [16].