Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury market is currently more focused on upcoming economic data, particularly the non-farm payroll report, rather than geopolitical events such as U.S. intervention in Venezuela [1][2] - Economists predict that the U.S. economy added 73,000 jobs last month, an increase from 64,000 in November, with the unemployment rate expected to drop from 4.6% to 4.5% [1] - The market's reaction to the situation in Venezuela is muted as it has not significantly altered the inflation narrative, according to market analysts [2][3] Group 2 - The recent sell-off in the U.S. Treasury market is attributed to random fluctuations and a return to normal trading volumes at the beginning of the year [3] - Analysts do not foresee the Venezuelan situation causing significant disruptions akin to Middle Eastern conflicts, as there is no immediate risk of geopolitical instability or oil price spikes [3] - The U.S. Treasury market is nearing a milestone, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching its highest level relative to the 2-year yield in nearly nine months, indicating expectations of a Fed rate cut in 2026 [3][4] Group 3 - The yield curve has steepened, with the 10-year Treasury yield briefly exceeding the 2-year yield by 72 basis points for the first time since April, driven by expectations of further Fed easing [4] - The increase in corporate bond issuance at the beginning of the year has put upward pressure on long-term yields, exacerbating the steepening of the yield curve [4] - The yield curve is expected to become steeper as economic conditions remain strong, despite a weak labor market, with the Fed continuing to play a significant role [5]

Group 1 - The core investment narrative for 2025 is not the strong performance of US stocks, but rather the significant changes in currency values and the global shift in asset allocation, with gold emerging as the true winner [1][4][12] - US stocks recorded an 18% return in USD terms, but this is largely attributed to the devaluation of fiat currencies, creating a "valuation illusion" [5][12] - The S&P 500 index, when priced in gold, actually declined by 28%, highlighting the disparity in performance when considering different currencies [5][12] Group 2 - The US stock market significantly underperformed compared to non-US markets, with European, Chinese, and Japanese stocks outperforming US stocks by 23%, 21%, and 10% respectively [18][20] - Emerging markets showed an overall return of 34%, indicating a substantial capital shift away from US assets [19][20] - The interest of foreign investors in USD-denominated assets is waning, as evidenced by the negative returns of US Treasuries when priced in gold, which saw a -34% return [5][6] Group 3 - The valuation of US stocks appears to have peaked, with long-term equity expected returns at 4.7%, which is lower than the 4.9% return on bonds, indicating a low equity risk premium [23][24] - The disparity in profit distribution, where capitalists benefit more than workers, is raising concerns among leftist political forces, potentially impacting future profit margins [7][22][23] Group 4 - The political landscape is shifting towards extreme left and right forces due to affordability crises driven by inflation, which is expected to lead to significant conflicts by 2027-2028 [5][9][35] - The transition from multilateralism to unilateralism is increasing military spending and sanctions, further diminishing the attractiveness of USD assets [9][35][36] Group 5 - Non-liquid markets such as venture capital, private equity, and real estate are under pressure, facing significant debt rollover challenges and a potential rise in liquidity premiums [8][26] - The current low liquidity premium in these markets may lead to a decline in value relative to liquid assets, indicating a potential liquidity trap for investors [8][26]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - No clear core view presented in the content 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Bonds**: Yields of 10 - year Treasury bonds in major economies are as follows: US 4.174, UK 4.480, France 3.553, Germany 2.841, Italy 3.533, Spain 3.270, Switzerland 0.246, Greece 3.413, Brazil 6.190, China 1.876, Australia 4.793, New Zealand 4.509 [3] - **2 - Year Treasury Bonds**: Yields of 2 - year Treasury bonds in major economies are: US 3.464, UK 3.693, Germany 2.098, Japan 1.179, Italy 2.204, China (1Y yield) 1.341, Australia 4.084 [3] - **Exchange Rates**: The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies are: Brazil 5.376, South Africa zar 16.356, South Korean won 1447.500, Thai baht 31.245, Malaysian ringgit 4.047. The latest onshore RMB is 6.984, offshore RMB is 6.981, RMB central parity is 7.017, and RMB 12 - month NDF is 6.864 [3] - **Stock Indices**: The latest values of major economy stock indices are: S&P 500 6944.820, Dow Jones Industrial Average 49462.080, Nasdaq 23547.170, Mexican index 65022.240, UK index 10122.730, France CAC 8237.430, Germany DAX 24892.200, Spanish index 17647.100, Japanese Nikkei 52518.080, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index 26710.450, Shanghai Composite Index 4083.667, Taiwan index 30576.300, South Korean index 4525.480, Indian index 8933.609, Thai index 1274.750, Malaysian index 1672.350, Australian index 8996.918, emerging - economy index 1467.160 [3] - **Credit Bond Indices**: The latest values of credit bond indices are: US investment - grade credit bond index 3545.480, euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index 266.170, emerging - economy investment - grade credit bond index 290.480, US high - yield credit bond index 2921.870, euro - zone high - yield credit bond index 411.440, emerging - economy high - yield credit bond index 1827.901 [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are 4083.67, 4790.69, 3158.76, 3319.29, and 7814.14 respectively, with daily percentage changes of 1.50%, 1.55%, 1.90%, 0.75%, and 2.13% [4] - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and Germany DAX are 14.52, 12.13, 35.38, 27.74, and 19.26 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.19, 0.15, 0.71, 0.17, and 0.01 [4] - **Risk Premium**: The risk premium for S&P 500 (1/PE - 10 - year rate) is - 0.57 with a环比 change of - 0.04, and for Germany DAX is 2.35 with a环比 change of 0.02 [4] - **Fund Flows**: The latest fund flow values for A - shares, main board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are 631.23, 552.00, 78.91, and 396.75 respectively. The 5 - day average values are - 65.98, - 129.00, 41.00, and 104.37 respectively [4] Other Trading Data - **Transaction Amount**: The latest transaction amounts of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, CSI 300, SSE 50, small - and medium - sized board, and ChiNext are 28065.07, 7254.15, 1800.48, 5735.57, and 7565.29 respectively, with环比 changes of 2602.36, 948.38, 104.86, 498.64, and 603.11 [5] - **Main Contract Basis and Spread**: The basis of IF, IH, and IC are - 12.69, 3.04, and - 27.74 respectively, with spreads of - 0.26%, 0.10%, and - 0.35% [5] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The closing prices of T2303, TF2303, T2306, and TF2306 are 107.70, 105.57, 107.66, and 105.57 respectively, with daily percentage changes of - 0.14%, - 0.13%, - 0.18%, and - 0.14% [5] - **Funding Rates**: The funding rates of R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M are 1.3302%, 1.4930%, and 1.5960% respectively, with daily changes of - 16.00 BP, 0.00 BP, and 0.00 BP [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the investment performance over the past decade, highlighting that 2025 is expected to yield high average returns for investors, with a personal return of 18.39% for the year [1][3]. Investment Performance Summary - The annual returns from 2014 to 2025 show fluctuations, with 2025 achieving an 18.39% return, while the average annualized return over the years is 20.79% [2]. - Monthly performance in 2025 indicates a cumulative return of 18.39% by December, with notable monthly variations [2]. Investment Strategy Insights - The investment strategy has been conservative, focusing on low-risk investments, which has limited the ability to capture higher returns during bullish market conditions [3][4]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding risk and the need to balance between conservative and aggressive strategies, suggesting that maintaining a high equity position is crucial for better performance [5][7]. Future Investment Directions - The author contemplates future investment strategies, suggesting a focus on non-linear investments such as convertible bonds, which provide a safety net and align with a conservative investment style [5][8]. - There is a recognition that traditional low-risk strategies are becoming less effective, prompting a need for adaptation and exploration of new opportunities [4][6]. Market Trends and Considerations - The article discusses the challenges in the convertible bond market, particularly regarding the effectiveness of the downshift strategy, indicating that market conditions are evolving and require patience and strategic positioning [8][9]. - The potential for gold as a negative correlation asset is highlighted, suggesting it could be a valuable addition to a diversified investment portfolio [9].

智通财经1月6日讯（编辑 杨斌）随着上证指数跨年的13连阳，转债市场也迎来十年的突破。尽管在本 轮上行中，ETF和保险的资金持续流出转债市场，但业内预计，随着资金季节性回流叠加权益的春季行 情，转债市场仍有维持强势。 今日，中证转债指数大涨1.35%收于505.77点，在突破去年8月高点的同时，十年来第一次站上500点。 同时，市场成交量再度接近千亿元。 不过，在本轮转债市场加速上涨的同时，转债ETF资金却持续净流出。数据显示，可转债ETF的基金份 额在去年9月初达到48.5亿份的历史高点，随后震荡下行，2025年末下降至38亿份。 （资料来源：Wind数 图：可转债ETF基金份额变化 据，智通财经整理） 东方金诚研究指出，近期转债跟随权益放量上涨，但转债ETF资金的持续流出，也显示低风偏资金的相 对谨慎预期，短期转债波动或有所加剧，进入震荡行情，需关注市场量能与情绪变化判断后续方向。 市场连续大涨后，公募转债中位价格已达133.72元，全市场37只转债价格超过200元。从12月以来涨幅 居前的转债来看，多为高价转债。 图：12月以来涨幅居前的转债 | 证券名称 | 2025年12月 以来涨跌幅% | 最新收 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recently released official version of the "Regulations on the Management of Sales Fees for Publicly Raised Securities Investment Funds" has sparked significant discussion in the industry, with notable optimizations compared to the draft version, indicating a policy direction of "precise relaxation and pressure relief" [1][2] Summary by Relevant Sections Changes in Redemption Fee Structure - The official version allows for different redemption fee agreements for individual investors holding for 7 days or more and institutional investors holding for 30 days or more, contrasting with the draft which imposed uniform fees [2][3] - The redemption fee for bond funds has been significantly relaxed, reducing the previously anticipated redemption pressure on bond markets [3] Transition Period and Market Impact - The adjustment period has been extended to 12 months, providing more time for institutional investors and public funds to adapt, thereby alleviating the concentrated redemption pressure faced by bond funds [3][4] - Following the new regulations, the interbank bond market saw a decline in yield rates, indicating a positive market sentiment [3] Short-term, Medium-term, and Long-term Effects - In the short term, the policy relaxation is expected to repair market sentiment, with potential trading opportunities emerging in the bond market [4][5] - Medium-term structural adjustments in the bond market are anticipated, with a shift towards bond ETFs expected to attract institutional funds [5][6] - Long-term, the new regulations aim to foster a healthy market ecosystem focused on long-term investments, potentially saving investors approximately 51 billion annually in fees [6][8] Investment Strategies and Market Outlook - Despite the positive developments, the overall bond market is expected to remain in a volatile state, with a focus on structural opportunities rather than trend-based movements [7][8] - Recommendations include targeting short-term products and high-grade credit bonds, while being cautious with long-term interest rate bonds due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances [7][8]

Group 1: Market Overview - In 2025, China's capital market demonstrated significant structural prosperity driven by deep reforms and technological innovation, with the total market capitalization of A-shares surpassing 100 trillion yuan and annual trading volume exceeding 400 trillion yuan [1][5] - Major stock indices recorded annual gains of over 10%, with growth styles notably outperforming, particularly the ChiNext Index, North China 50, and Sci-Tech Innovation 50, which saw increases exceeding 30% [1][5] Group 2: Economic Context - Since 2013, China's GDP growth rate has gradually declined, with significant indicators like real estate showing downturns post-2014, leading to multiple rounds of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions by the People's Bank of China [1][6] - In contrast, the real estate sector's deep adjustment has not concluded since the end of the pandemic in 2022, with the central bank continuing its accommodative monetary policy [1][6] Group 3: Industry Trends - The launch of the iPhone 4 marked the beginning of the smartphone era, leading to a rapid establishment of the domestic consumer electronics supply chain and a 382% increase in China's smartphone shipments from 2011 to 2015, facilitated by extensive 3G/4G network construction [2][6] - In 2025, the demand for computing power is expected to surge due to continuous iterations of high-performance GPUs by NVIDIA and breakthroughs in AI represented by ChatGPT, with domestic large models catching up under the influence of DeepSeek [2][6] Group 4: Funding Dynamics - High-net-worth investors began entering the stock market through financing methods from 2013, with the amount rising from less than 100 billion yuan to 2.3 trillion yuan by June 2015; however, ordinary investors significantly increased their market participation only in 2015 [3][7] - As of September 24, 2024, the margin trading balance has shown continuous growth, increasing from approximately 1.3 trillion yuan to over 2.5 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, with a net increase exceeding 1 trillion yuan [3][7] Group 5: Bond Market Insights - In late December 2025, the bond market experienced significant adjustments, with the yield on 30-year government bonds rising sharply, influenced by market reactions to recent policy announcements [4][8] - The People's Bank of China's financial stability report indicated that the decline in loan rates exceeded that of policy rates, while deposit rates fell less than policy rates, leading to speculation about reduced interest rate cuts in 2026 [4][8]

Market Performance - The domestic equity market continued to strengthen last week, with major broad-based indices generally rising around 3%, and both the Wind All A and CSI 2000 indices reached new highs for the year [1][5] - The average daily trading volume increased to a high level of 2.2 trillion yuan, driven primarily by the cyclical sector led by non-ferrous metals [1][5] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology rose by 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively [1][5] Currency Exchange Rate - The Chinese yuan has significantly appreciated against the US dollar this year, particularly after the Busan talks in late November, which eased bilateral relations [1][6] - The offshore yuan exchange rate even briefly surpassed the 7 yuan mark, attracting significant investor attention [1][6] - As of the end of November, China's official foreign exchange reserves were approximately 3.35 trillion USD, an increase of over 140 billion USD since the beginning of the year [6] Impact on Export and Import Companies - The appreciation of the yuan means that Chinese export goods have become more expensive in the international market, posing challenges for export-oriented companies, especially those in labor-intensive industries that rely on price advantages [2][6] - Export companies receiving payments in USD will find that converting to yuan results in lower amounts, potentially reducing profits, which raises concerns about exchange losses for companies with high export ratios in Q4 [2][6] - Conversely, companies that need to import raw materials, energy, components, and high-end equipment will benefit from a stronger yuan, as it reduces procurement costs and can enhance profit margins [2][6] Trade Balance and Economic Strategy - China's long-term trade surplus has been a source of friction with other economies, particularly the US and Europe [3][7] - The proactive balancing of trade is seen as beneficial for creating a more favorable international economic environment [3][7] - The central government's focus on domestic circulation and expanding domestic demand is a key task for high-quality economic development in the coming year [3][7] Bond Market Outlook - In the bond market, short- to medium-term interest rates declined while long-term rates saw slight increases, with secondary capital bonds showing little change [3][7] - The bond market is expected to remain within a narrow range, supported by stable year-end liquidity and potential new monetary policies from the central bank [3][7] - Despite current economic pressures, there is a possibility of a simultaneous bull market in both stocks and bonds in the near future [3][7]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market continues to show weakness, with government bond futures declining and interbank bond yields rising, influenced by fiscal policies and market dynamics [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.31% to 110.93, the 10-year down 0.13% to 107.7, and the 5-year down 0.11% to 105.57 [2]. - Interbank bond yields increased significantly, with the 10-year China Development Bank bond yield rising by 2.5 basis points to 1.975% and the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 2.1 basis points to 1.8825% [2]. Overseas Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield down 3.14 basis points to 4.159% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly rose, with the 10-year yield up 1.1 basis points to 2.131% [3]. - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds from France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all decreased, indicating a general trend of falling yields in the region [3]. Primary Market Activity - The Ministry of Finance's recent bond auctions saw yields lower than market estimates, with the weighted average yields for 28-day, 63-day, and 182-day bonds at 1.0698%, 1.1552%, and 1.2573% respectively [4]. - Agricultural Development Bank's financial bonds also showed competitive bidding, with a 91-day yield of 1.5199% and a 5-year yield of 1.7782% [4]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 162 billion yuan reverse repo operation at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net liquidity withdrawal of 2963 billion yuan for the day [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate down 0.1 basis points to 1.263% [5]. Institutional Perspectives - Citic Securities suggests that the new fund sales regulations may have a limited negative impact on the bond market, with potential trading opportunities arising from reduced redemption risks [7]. - Huatai Fixed Income notes that while the absolute level of interest rates is better than last year, the market may experience slight trading opportunities in the short term, but a more prolonged weakness is anticipated [7].

Core Viewpoint - The main narrative for 2025 revolves around two key sources of returns: the fluctuation of currency values, particularly the US dollar against other currencies and gold, and the relative performance of US stocks compared to non-US stocks and gold, with gold being the best-performing asset of the year [5][6][8]. Group 1: Currency Value Changes - The US dollar depreciated against several currencies: down 0.3% against the Japanese yen, 4% against the Chinese yuan, 12% against the euro, 13% against the Swiss franc, and 39% against gold [6][7]. - The overall narrative indicates that weaker currencies experienced sharper declines, while stronger currencies appreciated [7]. - Gold was the best-performing investment, yielding a 65% return in USD, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 18% return by 47 percentage points [8]. Group 2: Stock Market Performance - US stocks, while strong in USD terms, showed weaker performance when measured against stronger currencies, indicating a relative underperformance compared to international markets [16]. - European stocks outperformed US stocks by 23%, Chinese stocks by 21%, UK stocks by 19%, and Japanese stocks by 10%, with emerging market stocks returning 34% [17]. - The S&P 500's total return was driven by a 12% growth in corporate earnings and a 5% increase in price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, with the "seven giants" of the index accounting for a significant portion of this growth [18]. Group 3: Long-term Return Expectations - The long-term expected return for stocks is estimated at approximately 4.7%, while current bond returns are around 4.9%, indicating a very thin equity risk premium [19][20]. - The narrowing of credit spreads to very low levels suggests limited room for further compression, which could lead to upward pressure on spreads and negatively impact equities and credit markets [21]. Group 4: Political and Geopolitical Influences - Political changes, particularly under the Trump administration, have significantly influenced market dynamics, with policies aimed at revitalizing US manufacturing and AI technology impacting asset allocation and investor sentiment [25][26]. - The shift from multilateralism to unilateralism in global politics has increased conflict risks and heightened military spending, further influencing market behaviors and asset preferences [31]. Group 5: Other Influential Forces - The ongoing climate change and technological advancements, particularly in AI, are shaping the investment landscape, with the current AI boom being described as in the early stages of a bubble [31][34]. - The interplay of debt, currency, market dynamics, domestic politics, and geopolitical factors will continue to drive the overall investment environment [34].