研究中心宏观团队 2025/05/21 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/05/20 | 4.489 | 4.702 | 3.262 | 2.605 | 3.601 | 3.217 | 0.350 | 3.348 | | 最新变化 | 0.039 | 0.039 | 0.004 | 0.018 | 0.005 | 0.007 | 0.039 | 0.008 | | 一周变化 | 0.022 | 0.033 | -0.091 | -0.073 | -0.096 | -0.080 | -0.013 | -0.100 | | 一月变化 | 0.163 | 0.137 | 0.023 | 0.136 | -0.043 | 0.048 | -0.016 | -0.017 | | 一年变化 | -0. ...

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2025年5月20日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价 美元/人民币报7.1931，上调（人民币贬值）15点； 欧元/人民币报8.0810，上调260点； 港元/人民币报0.91941，下调4.4点； 英镑/人民币报9.6113，上调337点； 澳元/人民币报4.6456，上调293点； 加元/人民币报5.1570，下调39点； 100日元/人民币报4.9691，上调98点； 人民币/俄罗斯卢布报11.1787，下调625点； 新西兰元/人民币报4.2699，上调277点； 人民币/林吉特报0.59637，下调1.8点； 瑞士法郎/人民币报8.6144，下调101点； 新加坡元/人民币报5.5583，上调110点。 ...

Currency Exchange Rates - The three major RMB exchange rate indices all rose in the week of May 16, with the CFETS RMB index at 96.7, up 0.17% week-on-week; the BIS currency basket RMB index at 102.36, up 0.2%; and the SDR currency basket RMB index at 91.42, up 0.31% [1][2] - The onshore RMB against the USD closed at 7.2103, appreciating by 358 points or 0.49% for the week, while the offshore RMB closed at 7.2098, appreciating by 304 points or 0.42% [5] - The RMB's middle rate against the USD was reported at 7.1938, with a cumulative increase of 157 points or 0.22% for the week [5] Market Analysis - Analysts noted that the recent US-China trade talks led to significant consensus, providing support for the RMB exchange rate, while the middle rate remained relatively stable [5] - The RMB's depreciation pressure has significantly eased, and further appreciation will depend on future policy guidance [6] - Changes in exporters' foreign exchange settlement behavior will be crucial for the RMB exchange rate, as companies have retained substantial high-interest USD deposits [6] International Credit Ratings - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to increased government debt and interest payment ratios, marking a loss of the highest rating across all three major international credit rating agencies [7] Economic Indicators - The US consumer confidence index for May was reported at 50.8, below expectations of 53.4 [7] - The US April PPI year-on-year rate was 2.4%, slightly below the expected 2.5% [7] Financial Policies - The Chinese government has introduced new policies to accelerate the construction of a technology finance system, focusing on venture capital, monetary credit, capital markets, and technology insurance [9] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has revised the major asset restructuring management measures for listed companies, introducing several new regulatory frameworks [10]

2025年5月19日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价 美元/人民币报7.1916，下调（人民币升值）22点； 欧元/人民币报8.0550，下调23点； 港元/人民币报0.91985，下调16.1点； 英镑/人民币报9.5776，下调9点； 澳元/人民币报4.6163，上调49点； 加元/人民币报5.1609，上调13点； 100日元/人民币报4.9593，上调99点； 人民币/俄罗斯卢布报11.2412，上调1352点； 新西兰元/人民币报4.2422，上调100点； 人民币/林吉特报0.59655，上调26.6点； 瑞士法郎/人民币报8.6245，上调56点； 新加坡元/人民币报5.5473，下调69点。 最值 最值 人民币兑美元中间价较上日调升22点至7.1916，中间价升值至2025年4月3日以来最高。 最值 ...

| | 欧元/美元 | 1.120 | +0.20% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EURUSD | | | | | 英镑/美元 GBPUSD | 1.331 | +0.08% | | | 美元/日元 | | -0.33% | | | USDJPY | 145.202 | | | | 澳元/美元 | 0.640 | 0% | | | AUDUSD | | | | 11 | 美元/瑞郎 | 0.833 | -0.28% | | | USDCHF | | | | | 纽元/美元 NZDUSD | 0.587 | -0.07% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M | 英镑/日元 GBPJPY | 193.308 | -0.26% | | | | 影 拟货币 VIRTUAL CURRENCY | | | 15 | 比特币 11 BTC | 104072.520 +308.810 | +0.30% | | f | 菜特币 LTC | 100.040 +0.780 | +0.79% | | | 以太坊 ETH | 2567.390 +18.700 | +0.7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The divergence between the strengthening US dollar and the weakening US Treasury bonds is attributed to robust employment and inflation data, leading to a delay in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US added an average of 155,000 non-farm jobs over the past three months, with a low unemployment rate [1]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April decreased to 2.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI fell to 2.8% year-on-year [1]. - The Federal Reserve's recent meetings indicate a strong resilience in the US economy, with no immediate need for rate cuts [1][2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - Federal Reserve officials express that the current moderately restrictive policy rate is well-positioned to respond to economic changes [2]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs may impact future inflation paths, but the labor market remains strong [2]. - The delay in interest rate cuts is putting pressure on US Treasury bonds [2]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Debt Supply - The introduction of the "Big, Beautiful Bill" is expected to significantly increase the US fiscal deficit, potentially leading to increased supply pressure on Treasury bonds [2]. - The ongoing supply pressure from rising budget deficits may further impact the bond market [2]. Group 4: Supply Chain and Tariff Impact - The current tariff policies may lead to a supply shock in the US, as the return of manufacturing is unlikely in the short term [3]. - The tightening of immigration policies could further increase service prices, contributing to inflation expectations [3]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - Short-term trading factors, such as the recovery of major stock indices, are negatively impacting the US bond market [4]. - The increase in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) supply and corporate bond issuance is contributing to rising bond yields [4]. - The current market dynamics suggest that a recovery in Treasury bond prices may require signals of economic weakness or earlier-than-expected rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [4].

Group 1 - Iran's Supreme Leader's advisor stated that Iran is willing to commit to never developing nuclear weapons in exchange for the U.S. lifting sanctions, leading to a drop of over 3% in oil prices [1] - WTI crude oil fell over 3% to $60.60 per barrel, while Brent crude oil also dropped over 3% to $63.97 per barrel [2] - The geopolitical situation is easing, and high U.S. Treasury yields are pressuring commodities, causing gold, silver, copper, and oil to decline [5] Group 2 - European stock indices opened lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.5%, Germany's DAX down 0.4%, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.5% [9] - The Indian stock market maintained its upward trend after President Trump mentioned India's proposal to eliminate tariffs on U.S. goods [9] - The Japanese opposition party suggested using long-term U.S. Treasury holdings and importing U.S.-made Japanese cars as negotiation leverage in trade talks with Washington [12]

周四（5月15日）亚市早盘，美元兑加元汇率下跌至接近1.3950，原因是美元走弱，本交易日晚些时 候，美国4月零售销售数据和生产者价格指数（PPI）将成为关注焦点，此外还有美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍 威尔的讲话。 2025年3月，加拿大建筑许可总价值环比下降4.1%，降至128.8亿加元，约合92.4亿美元。这是自去年10 月以来的最大降幅，且超出经济学家预期的1.2%降幅，据道明证券分析。2月建筑许可价值曾环比上升 4.9%。从同比来看，3月建筑许可总价值增长15.0%。非住宅建筑许可价值下降14.5%，至42.3亿加元， 其中商业建筑意向下降19.0%，主要受安大略省和不列颠哥伦比亚省的拖累。住宅建筑许可价值上升 2.0%，至86.5亿加元，多户型住宅建筑意向增长5.8%，抵消了单户型住宅意向下降5.3%的影响。3月多 户型住宅建筑许可数量为22800套，单户型住宅为4400套，较上月增长4.6%. 美元对加元汇率在近期区间下端徘徊，受到10日和200日移动均线的限制。加元兑美元在纽约时段基本 持平，微涨0.03%，报1.3937，当日波动区间为1.3940至1.3901。 早盘加元上涨势头被逆转，因大宗商品价 ...

此外，美元与美债收益率多年来走势相关性非常强，但近期也出现了割裂。 分析认为，这些迹象表明，美股反弹可能只是一场表面的狂欢，美债收益率异常上涨以及与美元走势的背离，指向美国结构性财政问题，或暗示 美元更深层次崩溃风险。随着美国政府预计发行超2万亿美元国债，缺乏买家的局面可能迫使美联储重启资产负债表扩张。 股市狂欢，但债市却在讲述一个不同的故事 美国通胀降温却未能安抚债市，美债收益率顽固上升。 周二，美国市场上演了令人困惑的一幕：美股反弹，科技股继续飙升，而美债收益率却在通胀数放缓的情况下反常走高，美元进一步走软。 中美关税暂缓叠加美国通胀降温，引发美股大涨，然而债市与美元的表现却透露出市场深层的忧虑。 数据显示，美国4月消费者价格指数同比增长2.3%，低于经济学家预期的2.4%，为自2021年2月以来最低水平。这本应是债券市场的利好消息，但 10年期美债收益率反而上升2.4个基点至4.481%。 Pomboy警告，美联储最终可能别无选择，只能重新扩大资产负债表。"美联储是唯一明显的候选人来吸收所有这些国债发行，"她说道，并补充说 尽管信贷价差没有反应，但信贷压力正在增加。 "这是一个结构性财政问题，"她总结道 ...