Group 1: Currency Market Insights - The US dollar typically does not gain during a government shutdown, but it has risen by 0.9% since the latest shutdown began, influenced by market expectations that the shutdown may last weeks rather than months [1] - The USD/JPY exchange rate increased by 3% this week due to the results of the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party elections, which may delay the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes [1] - Political uncertainty in Europe, particularly following the resignation of French Prime Minister Le Maire, has contributed to the decline of the euro, further supporting the dollar [3] Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have benefited from increased political uncertainty in Europe, Japan, and the US, with current trading prices around $4000 [3] - The relationship between gold and the dollar has been negative historically, but both assets have risen simultaneously this week due to market dynamics [3] - Key support levels for gold are at $3954, $3925, and $3874, while resistance is around $4005, indicating potential short-term risks if profit-taking occurs near $4000 [3] Group 3: Oil Market Overview - OPEC+ is set to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in November, which is limiting the decline in crude oil prices [4] - US crude oil prices have remained in the lower half of the $60-$66 range since June, with moderate support at $60.92 and stronger support at $60.20 [4] - The upper resistance level for crude oil is at $62.75, indicating a potential price ceiling in the near term [4] Group 4: Federal Reserve Outlook - The market is closely watching the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes for clues on the Fed's potential dovish stance in the coming months [6] - The ongoing government shutdown has created uncertainty regarding the release of key US economic data, including the delayed Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data [6] - Comments from Fed officials will be critical for investors to assess the likelihood of one or two interest rate cuts by the end of the year [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. government is considering terminating some trade relations with China, including those related to edible oils, as stated by President Trump [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted at a potential 25 basis point rate cut later this month, despite the government shutdown affecting the Fed's economic assessment [2] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by 3 basis points to 4.029%, while the real yield dropped nearly 3.5 basis points to 1.728%, which is favorable for gold prices [2] Group 2 - FPG analyst Felix believes that gold prices are likely to rise above the $4100 per ounce mark, driven by dovish comments from Powell and increased safe-haven buying due to U.S.-China trade tensions [3] - Technical indicators show that gold remains in a strong upward trend, with the 20-day simple moving average currently at $3863.90 per ounce [3] - Analyst Chad indicates that gold has room for further increases, with support levels at $4123.20, $4090.00, and $4078.10 per ounce, and resistance at $4200.00 per ounce [4] Group 3 - Current market indicators for gold show a bearish daily direction, with resistance levels at 4186, 4200, and 4210, and support levels at 4170, 4161, and 4149 [5] - The momentum for gold is strong, with a quantitative reference value greater than 67.1% [5] - The euro to dollar exchange rate shows a bearish daily direction, with resistance at 1.1628, 1.1657, and 1.1714, and support at 1.1603, 1.1577, and 1.1554 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro is facing downward pressure due to political uncertainty in France and a dovish shift in European Central Bank interest rate expectations [1][2] Group 1: Currency Movements - The Euro to USD exchange rate is currently at 1.1572, with a slight increase of 0.01% [1] - The Euro to GBP exchange rate is under pressure, testing the support level of 0.8675, influenced by ongoing political uncertainty in France [1] - The Euro has significantly retraced from a peak of 0.8724 last Friday, indicating a notable decline [1] Group 2: Political Factors - President Macron's refusal to resign amid a new government facing a vote of no confidence is exacerbating market concerns [1] - The political deadlock in France is contributing to the downward pressure on the Euro [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy Expectations - The European Central Bank's shift towards a dovish stance is adding to the pressure on the Euro [1] - There are expectations that the Bank of England may further cut interest rates, with concerns that UK inflation may decline slower than anticipated [1] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators for the Euro show significant downward pressure, with the Bollinger Bands expanding and moving averages trending downwards [2] - Initial resistance levels are identified at 1.1630 and 1.1731, while support levels are at 1.1528 and 1.1504 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report presents a comprehensive overview of the global asset market performance on October 13, 2025, including data on government bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading across major economies [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **Government Bond Yields**: 10 - year and 2 - year government bond yields of major economies are presented, with details on latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury yield on October 13, 2025, was 4.034%, with a one - week change of - 0.142 and a one - year change of 0.282 [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar's exchange rates against major emerging economies' currencies are shown, including latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly percentage changes. The US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate on October 13, 2025, was 5.521, with a one - week change of 3.31% [2]. - **Stock Indices**: Closing prices and percentage changes (latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly) of major economies' stock indices are provided. The S&P 500 index on October 13, 2025, was 6552.510, with a one - week change of - 1.37% and a one - year change of 14.19% [2]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: Data on investment - grade and high - yield credit bond indices of the US, eurozone, and emerging economies are given, including latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly percentage changes. The US investment - grade credit bond index on October 13, 2025, was 3529.690, with a one - week change of 0.67% [2]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: Closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are presented. The A - share closing price was 3889.50, with a change of - 0.19% [3]. - **Valuation**: PE (TTM) and its环比变化 (comparative change) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX are shown. The PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 14.19, with a环比变化 of - 0.06 [3]. - **Risk Premium**: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate and its环比变化 of several indices are provided. The 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of CSI 300 was 3.70, with a环比变化 of 0.00 [3]. - **Fund Flows**: Latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, main board, small and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are given. The latest fund flow in A - shares was 278.56, and the 5 - day average was - 118.93 [3]. - **Trading Volume**: Latest trading volumes and环比变化 of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small and medium - sized board, and ChiNext are presented. The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 23547.41, with a环比变化 of - 1608.73 [3]. - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: Basis and percentage of IF, IH, and IC are provided. The basis of IF was - 31.38, with a percentage of - 0.68% [3]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - Closing prices and percentage changes of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 are presented, all with 0.00% change. The closing price of T00 was 108.065 [4]. - **Funding Rates**: R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M are shown, along with their daily changes in basis points. The R001 was 1.3570%, with a daily change of - 13.00 BP [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current tariff upgrade is likely to follow the pattern of April 2025, with smaller market fluctuations. Trump's subsequent remarks have shown signs of moderation, and the market may have a strong learning effect from the previous negotiation model. As a result, market volatility may be lower and the recovery may be faster in this round of trade frictions. In the short term, it strengthens the long - end bullish momentum of US Treasuries [3][17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review of Market Feedback Patterns in Previous Trade Frictions - **2018.03 - 2018.06: Gradual Recognition Stage at the Beginning of Trade Frictions** - In March 2018, the US announced steel and aluminum tariffs and planned to impose tariffs on $60 billion worth of Chinese goods. Initially, the scope was relatively narrow, and the impact on the global market was not significant. - Over the next three months, as the market recognized the threat of trade frictions, the Chinese equity market was under pressure, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling about 11.45% cumulatively. The bond market strengthened due to risk - aversion sentiment, and the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds declined by about 19bp, showing a "strong bonds, weak stocks" pattern [1][9]. - **2019.05 - 2019.12: Global Resonance Stage with Re - emergence of Conflicts** - In May 2019, Sino - US negotiations broke down, and trade conflicts escalated again after a brief cease - fire. - Against the backdrop of high trade environment uncertainty and the global manufacturing PMI entering the bottom cycle, most global markets were in a "strong bonds, weak stocks" seesaw pattern in the second half of 2019. The yield of 10 - year US Treasuries dropped from 2.45% to around 1.74% within three months [1][12]. - **2025.04: Amplification and Rapid Recovery of Impact from "Reciprocal Tariffs"** - On April 2, 2025, Trump announced the "reciprocal tariff" policy, imposing a "reciprocal tariff" starting at 10% on all countries. This tariff had an unexpected magnitude and also targeted non - Chinese countries, causing a global impact. - The market reacted quickly. Within five days, major global stock indices fell between 5 - 15%. Funds flocked to "safe - haven" bonds. The yield of 10 - year Japanese Treasury bonds declined by about 32bp within five days, and safe - haven currencies such as the yen and Swiss franc strengthened. - After several rounds of negotiations, the stock market rebounded significantly, and the market gradually alleviated concerns about tariffs. The trading sentiment became relatively insensitive to marginal changes in tariff policies, reaching a consensus of "high - opening and low - running tariffs." The main stock indices basically recovered to pre - tariff levels, while the bond market showed differentiated performance due to factors such as fundamentals, inflation expectations, and political situations [2][14]. 2. This Week's Overseas Macroeconomic Interest Rate Review 2.1 Macroeconomic Indicator Comments - As of the week ending October 3, driven by rising production and increased imports, US EIA crude oil inventories continued to rise after the previous week's rebound. The change in US EIA crude oil inventories for the week was 3.715 million barrels, higher than the forecast of 2.25 million barrels and the previous value of 1.792 million barrels. Despite the larger - than - expected increase in inventories, concerns about Russian crude oil supply disruptions and the recovery of US demand boosted market sentiment to some extent, causing oil prices to rise slightly one hour after the data release [18]. 2.2 Review of Main Overseas Market Interest Rates - **US**: Trade frictions may intensify, and US Treasury yields are falling rapidly. This week (October 3 - October 10, 2025), US Treasury yields declined. Trump's tariff threat on Friday led to pressure on the US stock market, with the Nasdaq Index dropping 3.56% in a single day, the largest decline since April. The yield of 10 - year US Treasuries dropped 9bp in a single day, and COMEX gold rose 1.58% to $4035.5 per ounce. As the government shutdown may continue and trade frictions may re - emerge, funds are expected to further flow into the bond market. The recent unexpected increase in short - term debt issuance may imply a reduction in long - term debt issuance in November, which is beneficial for lowering long - end market interest rates [19]. - **Auction Results**: The 3 - year US note auction was neutral to robust, the 10 - year US note auction was weak, and the 30 - year US Treasury auction was relatively robust [22]. - **Europe and Japan**: - **Japan**: Under the expectation of "pro - stimulus" policies, the yield of long - term Japanese bonds is approaching a 17 - year high. The yield of 10 - year Japanese bonds is stable at around 1.70%, close to the highest level since 2008. However, the breakdown of the Japanese ruling coalition on Friday makes the future policy direction uncertain [30]. - **Germany**: German bond yields declined overall this week [30]. 3. Comments on Other Major Asset Classes - **Equity**: Vietnam and Japan reached new highs, while European and American markets generally weakened. Vietnam's VN30 had the strongest performance (+6.51%), followed by Japan's Nikkei 225 (+5.07%). European, American, and Hong Kong markets generally declined. The political turmoil in Paris led to a significant decline in the French stock market, and Trump's threat against China pressured the US stock market [31]. - **Commodities**: Safe - haven precious metals and base metals were strong, while energy, agricultural products were weak, and crypto - assets tumbled. Gold and silver prices rose significantly, driven by risk - aversion demand and a weaker US dollar. Base metals and energy raw materials also generally strengthened. In contrast, Brent crude oil, agricultural products, and Bitcoin declined [32]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The Russian ruble led the gains, and the Japanese yen led the losses. The ruble rose 1.73%, while the yen fell 3.63% due to easing expectations [33]. 4. Market Tracking The report provides data on the changes in bond yields, stock index returns, commodity price changes, and foreign exchange rate fluctuations of major global economies this week, as well as the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [39][48][55][59].

Core Viewpoint - South Korea's regulatory authorities have made a rare verbal intervention regarding the won's exchange rate, indicating they are closely monitoring its one-sided movements due to domestic and international factors [1] Group 1: Market Response - The won's decline narrowed to approximately 0.2%, trading at 1,427.95 won per dollar, after previously dropping by 0.5% [1] - The Bloomberg Asia Currency Index fell to its lowest level since May, reflecting a broader weakness in Asian currencies [1] Group 2: Official Statements - The joint statement from the South Korean Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Korea is the first since April 2024, highlighting the significance of the current market conditions [1] - Although the tone of the statement was mild, verbal interventions from officials are often interpreted as policy signals, which can lead to expectations of actual market interventions [1]

Core Insights - The recent depreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar has significant implications for both consumers and exporters, with the exchange rate affecting the cost of imports and the revenue from exports [1][3][7]. Exchange Rate Dynamics - The exchange rate operates like a seesaw, where a stronger dollar results in a weaker yuan, influenced by economic stability, interest rates, and investment flows [3][4]. - The US dollar's strength is attributed to multiple interest rate hikes and positive economic data, attracting global capital, while the yuan remains relatively stable due to slower domestic consumption and investment recovery [3][4]. Impact on Consumers - The depreciation of the yuan means higher costs for consumers purchasing imported goods, such as electronics and education expenses, which have increased significantly in yuan terms [3][4]. - For individuals holding dollar-denominated financial products, the appreciation of the dollar translates to gains from currency exchange [3][4]. Export Opportunities - A weaker yuan can benefit domestic exporters, as their products become cheaper for foreign buyers, potentially increasing sales and revenue when converted back to yuan [1][7]. - The current exchange rate scenario presents opportunities for savvy exporters to capitalize on favorable currency conditions [7][8]. Long-term Outlook - The yuan's value is not solely determined by current exchange rates but is a reflection of broader economic conditions, including trade balances and investment flows [6][8]. - The increasing use of the yuan in global trade indicates growing confidence in its stability, suggesting that as long as the domestic economy remains robust, the yuan will maintain its value over the long term [6][8]. Consumer Strategies - Consumers are advised to be strategic about currency exchange, particularly when planning international purchases, and to consider diversifying their investments to mitigate risks associated with currency fluctuations [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - The fluctuation of the RMB to USD exchange rate reflects the relative value of currencies and is influenced by various global economic factors, rather than indicating a permanent devaluation of the RMB [1][3]. Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations - The rising cost of imported goods, such as milk powder and electronics, is directly linked to the USD's strength, which increases the cost of these items for consumers [3]. - Parents of students studying abroad face increased financial pressure as the cost of living in foreign currencies rises due to the depreciation of the RMB [3]. - For export-oriented companies, a weaker RMB can be beneficial as it makes Chinese goods cheaper for foreign buyers, potentially increasing export orders [3]. Underlying Logic of RMB Exchange Rate Changes - Exchange rate fluctuations are normal and reflect the broader economic environment, including China's strong economic fundamentals and foreign exchange reserves [3][4]. - The RMB's international standing is improving, despite temporary fluctuations caused by global economic conditions and U.S. monetary policy [3][6]. Long-term Outlook - The RMB is expected to remain stable in the long run, supported by China's robust economic foundation and ongoing efforts to enhance the currency's international influence [6][7]. - The increasing use of the RMB in international trade settlements indicates its growing significance and acceptance globally [7]. Recommendations for Individuals - Individuals are advised to stay calm during exchange rate fluctuations and consider strategic currency exchanges when rates are favorable [6]. - It is important to focus on personal financial planning and investment strategies rather than being overly concerned with daily exchange rate changes [9].

Core Viewpoint - GBP/USD reversed its trend during the US trading session, rebounding approximately 100 points from its intraday low, currently around 1.3360, due to concerns over US-China trade relations and strong selling pressure on the dollar [1] Technical Analysis - GBP/USD has faced resistance near the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) multiple times, with bearish sentiment prevailing due to signs of a breakdown from a descending channel since the beginning of the month [3] - The price may further decline towards the two-month low range of 1.3330-1.3325, with a potential new selling wave if it breaks below the 1.3300 level, targeting support at 1.3260-1.3255 and possibly extending to 1.3200 [3] - Conversely, if a rebound occurs, resistance is expected at the 1.3400 level, followed by the Asian session high of 1.3420, with further upward movement potentially facing resistance at 1.3465-1.3475 [3] Fundamental Analysis - Bank of England (BoE) official Catherine Mann emphasized the need for prolonged tight monetary policy to foster a conducive growth environment, citing persistent inflation and moderate growth prospects [4] - UK Treasury Chief Secretary James Murray stated that the government will not allow departments to use emergency funds for salary increases, aiming to prevent a wage spiral and establish a stable economic foundation [4] - Amidst the US government shutdown and Senate deadlock, market risk aversion is rising, which may provide some safe-haven support for the dollar, potentially suppressing GBP performance [5] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve will maintain a dovish stance, limiting the dollar's rebound momentum [5]

Core Insights - In September, the offshore (CNH) RMB depreciated against the USD while the onshore (CNY) RMB appreciated, with a daily average price difference of 67 basis points (BP), a decrease of 13 BP from the previous month [1][3]. Group 1: Offshore RMB Deposits in Hong Kong and Taiwan - As of August 2025, offshore RMB deposits in Hong Kong increased to 967.96 billion yuan, up 3.2% from the previous month, while Taiwan's deposits decreased to 120.59 billion yuan, down 3.0% [2]. Group 2: Offshore RMB Foreign Exchange Market - On September 30, the CNH/USD exchange rate closed at 7.1287, a depreciation of 0.09% from the previous month, while the CNY/USD exchange rate closed at 7.1186, an appreciation of 0.20% [3]. - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index rose by 0.21%, the BIS currency basket index rose by 0.20%, and the SDR currency basket index remained unchanged [3]. Group 3: Offshore RMB Bond Market - In September, the offshore RMB bond market issued 121 bonds, an increase of 11 bonds from the previous month, with a total issuance amount of 291.004 billion yuan, up 77.4% [5]. Group 4: Offshore RMB Money Market - By the end of September, the CNH HIBOR rates for overnight, 7-day, 3-month, and 1-year periods were 1.8127%, 1.6218%, 1.7100%, and 1.9688%, respectively, with changes of +22 BP, +5 BP, -3 BP, and +5 BP compared to the previous month [6]. - The average interest rate differentials between offshore and onshore borrowing rates showed mixed trends, with some periods experiencing declines and others increases [6]. Group 5: Dynamics of Foreign Institutions in Domestic Interbank Market - As of the end of September, the total number of foreign institutions participating in the domestic interbank foreign exchange market reached 237, an increase of 1 from the previous month [7]. - The total number of foreign institutions and their products in the domestic interbank currency market reached 5775, an increase of 20 from the previous month [7]. Group 6: Trading Volume of Foreign Institutions - In the domestic interbank foreign exchange market, the total trading volume for foreign institutions was 33,086.45 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.4% compared to the previous month [8]. - The trading volume in the domestic interbank bond market for foreign institutions totaled 9,648.90 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.6% [8].