1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the fundamentals of the natural rubber market were linked with the macro - market, and rubber prices rebounded after hitting the bottom. The offer price of imported rubber first declined and then rose, with general trading atmosphere and real - order transactions following the upward trend. The spot price of domestic natural rubber fluctuated widely, and the demand side showed no obvious improvement. [7] - Currently, the weather in the Xishuangbanna production area in Yunnan, China is good, with some areas being slightly dry. The output of fresh latex is gradually increasing, and some concentrated latex factories are competing to purchase at higher prices. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has been accumulating, with both bonded and general trade warehouses increasing. The total inbound volume at the port has increased significantly compared to the previous period. Although downstream tire factories replenish inventory at low prices, the inbound growth rate exceeds the outbound rate, and the port inventory has returned to the accumulation rhythm. It is expected that the general trade warehouse in Qingdao may continue to accumulate slightly in the short term. [7] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly. As it is the end of the quarter, some enterprises are striving to meet quarterly tasks, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate. However, some enterprises may have short - term maintenance arrangements at the end of March or early April, which will slightly drag down the overall capacity utilization rate. [7] - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,250 - 16,850 in the short term, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,300 - 14,000 in the short term. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: The fundamentals of the natural rubber market were linked with the macro - market, and rubber prices rebounded after hitting the bottom. The offer price of imported rubber first declined and then rose, with general trading atmosphere and real - order transactions following the upward trend. The spot price of domestic natural rubber fluctuated widely, and the demand side showed no obvious improvement. [7] - **Market Outlook**: The weather in Yunnan's Xishuangbanna production area is good, with some areas being slightly dry. The output of fresh latex is gradually increasing, and some concentrated latex factories are competing to purchase at higher prices. The total inventory at Qingdao Port is accumulating, and it is expected that the general trade warehouse in Qingdao may continue to accumulate slightly in the short term. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuates slightly, and some enterprises may have short - term maintenance arrangements. [7] - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,250 - 16,850 in the short term, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,300 - 14,000 in the short term. [7] 3.2. Futures Market - **Price Trends**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose oscillatingly, with a weekly increase of 3.19%; the main contract price of 20 - rubber rose oscillatingly, with a weekly increase of 6.76%. [12] - **Position Analysis**: No specific analysis content provided in the text. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of March 27, the spread between the May and September contracts of Shanghai rubber was - 45, and the spread between the May and June contracts of 20 - rubber was - 65. [21] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of March 26, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 125,410 tons, a decrease of 30 tons compared to last week; the warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber were 43,949 tons, a decrease of 4,133 tons compared to last week. [27] 3.3. Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of March 26, the price of state - owned whole latex was 16,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton compared to last week. [33] - **20 - rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of March 26, the basis of 20 - rubber was 241 yuan/ton, a decrease of 349 yuan/ton compared to last week; the non - standard basis was - 860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton compared to last week. [38] 3.4. Industrial Situation - **Upstream**: As of March 27, the field latex price in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 77.5 (+3) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump price was 58.75 (+2.2) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 16 US dollars/ton, an increase of 16 US dollars/ton compared to last week. As of March 26, the price of Yunnan latex was 14,600 yuan/ton, and the output of fresh latex in Yunnan's Xishuangbanna production area is gradually increasing, with some concentrated latex factories competing to purchase at higher prices. [41][44] - **Import Quantity**: According to customs data, in February 2026, China's import volume of natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) was 461,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.46% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.29%. The cumulative import volume from January to February 2026 was 1.1065 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.36%. [48] - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of March 22, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 685,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,000 tons, an increase of 1.18%. The bonded area inventory was 122,100 tons, an increase of 0.66%; the general trade inventory was 563,500 tons, an increase of 1.29%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouse of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.41 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.50 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 1.62 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.41 percentage points. [52] - **Downstream**: As of March 26, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.18 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.24%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.88 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises fluctuated slightly. In February 2026, China's tire export volume was 631,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.49% and a year - on - year increase of 22.34%. The cumulative tire export volume from January to February was 1.3369 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.57%. In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared to January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8%. The cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck industry from January to February was more than 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. It is expected that the wholesale sales volume of the heavy - truck industry in March will achieve a slight year - on - year increase. [55][58][61] 3.5. Option Market Analysis - No relevant information provided

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper market is expected to be supported by the situation of increasing supply and demand and decreasing inventory. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract first declined and then rose, with a weekly increase of 1.26%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 95,930 yuan/ton [7] - **International Economic Outlook**: The OECD's latest economic outlook report predicts that the global economic growth rate will be 2.9% in 2026 and will slightly rebound to 3% in 2027. The US economic growth rate will slow from 2% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027, and the inflation rate this year will reach 4.2%, much higher than the Fed's expectation [7] - **Domestic Diplomatic Events**: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi discussed the Middle East situation and the Iranian nuclear issue with Canadian Foreign Minister Anand. Both the US and Iran are willing to restart negotiations, and the international community should encourage them to return to the negotiation table [7] - **Fundamentals**: The spot index of copper concentrate TC has continued to reach new lows, and the expectation of tightening global copper mine supply has gradually strengthened, providing strong cost support for copper prices. The utilization rate of copper smelter production capacity has gradually recovered, but the pressure of global raw material supply and the rapid decline of domestic copper concentrate port inventory in the first quarter may limit the growth rate of domestic production. With the arrival of the peak season and the decline of copper prices due to geopolitical conflicts, the production enthusiasm of domestic downstream copper processing enterprises has been boosted, and they are replenishing inventory at low prices. The inflection point of social inventory decline has been confirmed, and industry demand is gradually improving [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Contracts**: As of March 27, 2026, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 610 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,695 yuan/ton. The main contract was quoted at 95,930 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,190 yuan/ton, and the open interest was 187,395 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 13,786 lots [14] - **Spot Prices**: As of March 27, 2026, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 95,320 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,355 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of the Shanghai copper main contract was 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton [17] - **Copper Premium and Position**: As of the latest data this week, the CIF average premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was $65/ton, a week - on - week increase of $12.5/ton. The net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was 56,038 lots, an increase of 6,979 lots compared with last week [26] - **Options Market**: As of March 27, 2026, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main at - the - money option contract was above the 75th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper options open interest was 0.9, with a week - on - week change of 0.067 [31] 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Copper Ore Quotations and Processing Fees**: As of the latest data this week, the copper concentrate quotation in the main mining area (Jiangxi) was 85,920 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,520 yuan/ton. The processing fee for southern crude copper this week was 1,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 700 yuan/ton [34] - **Copper Ore Imports and Scrap - Refined Spread**: As of February 2026, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.3103 million tons, a decrease of 312,800 tons from January, a decline of 11.92% and a year - on - year increase of 5.96%. As of the latest data this week, the scrap - refined copper spread (including tax) was 4,784.51 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 997.73 yuan/ton [39] - **Global Copper Mine Production and Port Inventory**: As of December 2025, the global monthly production value of copper concentrates was 2,050,000 tons, an increase of 159,000 tons from November, an increase of 8.41%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 82.3%, an increase of 3.6% from November. As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 315,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 89,000 tons [44] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Refined Copper Production**: As of December 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.326 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons from November, an increase of 7.28% and a year - on - year increase of 6.76%. As of January 2026, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,426,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from December, a decline of 0.16%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 78.6%, a decrease of 0.3% from December [46] - **Refined Copper Imports**: As of February 2026, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 203,588.219 tons, a decrease of 47,080.37 tons from January, a decline of 18.78% and a year - on - year decline of 33.28% [54] - **Social Inventory**: As of the latest data this week, the LME total inventory increased by 17,475 tons week - on - week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 1,011 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 50,776 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 440,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45,400 tons [57] 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Copper Products Production and Imports**: As of December 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.2291 million tons, an increase of 3,100 tons from November, an increase of 0.14%. As of February 2026, the monthly import volume of copper products was 320,000 tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons from January, a decline of 15.79% and a year - on - year decline of 23.81% [64] - **Power Grid Investment and Home Appliance Production**: As of December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 5.11% and - 4.65% respectively. As of December 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of the monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs were - 4.4%, - 9.6%, 5.7%, 7%, and - 1.2% respectively [68] - **Real Estate Investment and Integrated Circuit Production**: As of February 2026, the cumulative completed real estate development investment was 96.1211 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1% and a month - on - month increase of 88.39%. As of February 2026, the cumulative production of integrated circuits was 81.52 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 12.4% and a month - on - month increase of 83.17% [74] 3.6 Overall Situation - **Global Supply - Demand Situation**: According to ICSG statistics, as of January 2026, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 17,000 tons. According to WBMS statistics, as of January 2026, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 129,300 tons [79]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Canola Oil**: This week, canola oil futures fluctuated at a high level. The closing price of the 05 contract was 9,877 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from last week. AAFC kept the forecast of Canada's rapeseed ending stocks for the 2025/26 season unchanged at 2.76 million tons and lowered the forecast for the 2026/27 season by 200,000 tons to 1.46 million tons. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East remain uncertain, and international oil prices are oscillating at a high level, driving up the expected demand for vegetable oil in biodiesel. High-frequency data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports increased significantly in the first 25 days of March, and the end-of-month inventory is expected to decline further. The market anticipates that Indonesia may tighten palm oil exports, which continues to support palm oil prices. In the domestic market, the spot trading of edible oils is sluggish, and high prices are suppressing demand. The future imports of Canadian rapeseed are expected to increase significantly, adding pressure on supply in the far - term. Recently, the market has been trading on the drive of biodiesel demand. The canola oil futures price has generally maintained a wide - range high - level oscillation, with increased short - term volatility [8]. - **Canola Meal**: This week, canola meal futures declined. The closing price of the 05 contract was 2,315 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan/ton from last week. As the South American soybean harvest progresses, the supply pressure is gradually increasing, and Brazilian soybeans have a competitive edge, dampening the market's expectations for US soybean exports. Tensions between the US and Iran have eased slightly, but the uncertainty of the geopolitical conflict still exists, and the macro - risk premium still supports the US soybean market. In terms of canola meal itself, China has lifted the anti - discriminatory tariff on Canadian canola meal, and the tariff on Canadian rapeseed has also dropped significantly. Canadian rapeseed and canola meal will flow back to the domestic market, and the long - term supply pressure will continue to restrict the market. Currently, canola meal is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The market's concerns about the near - term soybean supply have been alleviated. The canola meal price has oscillated and declined from a high level recently, with large short - term fluctuations, and short - term trading is recommended [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Canola Oil**: The 05 contract closed at 9,877 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from last week. AAFC adjusted the inventory forecast, and geopolitical and market factors affect prices. The market is trading on biodiesel demand, and the price is in a high - level wide - range oscillation [8]. - **Canola Meal**: The 05 contract closed at 2,315 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan/ton from last week. Supply and geopolitical factors impact the market, and it is in a weak supply - demand situation. The price has oscillated and declined from a high level, with large short - term fluctuations [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: Canola oil futures oscillated and closed higher, with a total open interest of 213,002 contracts, down 24,431 contracts from last week. Canola meal futures declined significantly, with a total open interest of 527,901 contracts, down 50,477 contracts from last week [15]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: The net position of the top 20 in canola oil futures was - 17,025, and the net short position decreased compared to last week. The net position of the top 20 in canola meal futures was - 167,454, and the net short position increased compared to last week [21]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of canola oil were 765, and those of canola meal were 0 [27]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of canola oil in Jiangsu was 10,380 yuan/ton, slightly down from last week. The basis between the active canola oil contract and the Jiangsu spot price was + 503 yuan/ton. The canola meal price in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,570 yuan/ton, slightly down from last week. The basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active canola meal contract was + 255 yuan/ton [33][39]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 5 - 9 spread of canola oil was + 97 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The 5 - 9 spread of canola meal was - 88 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years [45]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio**: The ratio of the 05 contract of canola oil to canola meal was 4.267, and the average spot price ratio was 3.98 [48]. - **Price Spreads between Oils and Meals**: The 05 contract spread between canola oil and soybean oil was 1,189 yuan/ton, and the spread slightly narrowed this week. The 05 contract spread between canola oil and palm oil was 109 yuan/ton, and the spread slightly narrowed this week. The 05 contract spread between soybean meal and canola meal was 622 yuan/ton, and the spot spread between soybean meal and canola meal was 710 yuan/ton as of Thursday [57][63]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Rapeseed**: As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 176,000 tons, down 5,000 tons from last week. The estimated arrivals of rapeseed in April, May, and June 2026 are 225,000 tons, 200,000 tons, and 520,000 tons respectively. As of March 26, the spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed was + 55 yuan/ton. As of the 12th week of 2026, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 46,000 tons, up 15,500 tons from last week, and the operating rate was 11.76%. In February 2026, the total import volume of rapeseed was 69,617.89 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 79.10% and a month - on - month decrease of 51,231.78 tons [67][71][75][79]. - **Canola Oil**: As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the domestic imported and crushed canola oil inventory was 295,800 tons, down 8,200 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.69%. In February 2026, the total import volume of canola oil was 200,000 tons, the lowest this year, a year - on - year decrease of 16.67% and a month - on - month decrease of 50,000 tons. As of December 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 5.254 million tons, and the monthly catering revenue was 573.8 billion yuan. As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the contract volume of domestic imported and crushed canola oil was 156,800 tons, up 46,900 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 42.72% [83][87][91]. - **Canola Meal**: As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the domestic imported and crushed canola meal inventory was 24,000 tons, up 4,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 20.0%. In February 2026, the total import volume of canola meal was 182,509.72 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.61% and a month - on - month decrease of 82,530.18 tons. As of December 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 3.0086 million tons [95][99][103]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis As of March 27, this week, the canola meal futures price declined from a high level. The implied volatility of the corresponding options was 23.93%, down 1.23% from last week's 25.16%, and it was at a medium level of the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [107].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the port methanol market continued to rise, and the inland methanol market also showed an upward trend. The market was mainly driven by the sentiment of the futures market, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market was active. In the near term, the overall methanol production increased as the production capacity loss from maintenance and production cuts was less than the output from restored production. The inland enterprises reduced their inventories, and the port methanol inventory continued to decline. The capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants increased, and the MTO industry's operation rate is expected to exceed 90% next week. Due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran, the short - term methanol price is expected to fluctuate sharply, and it is recommended to wait and see while paying attention to geopolitical developments [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the port methanol market rose, with the price range in Jiangsu being 2970 - 3360 yuan/ton and in Guangdong being 3000 - 3430 yuan/ton. The inland methanol price center shifted upward, with the price range in the Ordos northern line in the main production area being 2315 - 2430 yuan/ton, and the downstream Dongying receiving price range being 2365 - 2800 yuan/ton. The market was driven by the futures market, and the spot - market trading was active [7] - **Market Outlook**: The overall methanol production increased. Inland enterprises reduced their inventories, and the port methanol inventory continued to decline. The capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants increased, and the MTO industry's operation rate is expected to exceed 90% next week [7] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran, the short - term methanol price is expected to fluctuate sharply. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to geopolitical developments [7] 3.2 Futures Market Situation - **Price Trend**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures fluctuated and closed higher this week, with a weekly increase of 5.24% [10] - **Inter - period Spread**: As of March 27, the MA 5 - 9 spread was 290 [17] - **Position Analysis**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of March 26, there were 7981 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, an increase of 340 from last week [25] 3.3 Spot Market Situation - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of March 26, the mainstream price in the East China Taicang area was 3265 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in the Northwest Inner Mongolia area was 2425 yuan/ton, an increase of 132.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 840 yuan/ton, an increase of 47.5 yuan/ton from last week [30] - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of March 26, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 397 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 203 US dollars/ton, an increase of 43 US dollars/ton from last week [35] - **Domestic Basis**: As of March 26, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was 63 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton from last week [39] 3.4 Industrial Chain Analysis - **Upstream Situation**: As of March 25, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 690 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week. As of March 26, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.97 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.12 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [42] - **Industrial Situation**: As of March 26, China's methanol production was 2071615 tons, an increase of 17700 tons from last week; the capacity utilization rate of the plants was 92.73%, a month - on - month increase of 0.86%. As of March 25, the inventory of China's sample methanol production enterprises was 43.50 million tons, a decrease of 5.04 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 10.39%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 28.39 million tons, an increase of 0.46 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.64%. As of March 25, the total inventory of China's methanol ports was 115.55 million tons, a decrease of 10.62 million tons from the previous data. In February 2026, China's methanol imports were 88.47 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.38%; from January to February 2026, China's cumulative methanol imports were 196.86 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.72%. As of March 26, the methanol import profit was - 53.31 yuan/ton, an increase of 156.09 yuan/ton from last week [45][50][54] - **Downstream Situation**: As of March 26, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 86.86%, a month - on - month increase of 1.29%. The operation rate of the domestic MTO industry is expected to exceed 90% next week. As of March 27, the domestic methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit was - 1375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 198 yuan/ton from last week [57][60] 3.5 Option Market Analysis - Not mentioned in the report

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic urea market continued to show minor fluctuations. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong remained stable on average compared to the previous week. The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures rose by 1.96% this week [6][9]. - In the near future, domestic urea production has slightly decreased. Next week, there may be 1 enterprise with planned plant shutdown and 2 - 3 enterprises with possible resumption of production. Considering short - term enterprise failures, there is a high possibility of a slight increase in production. In April, agricultural demand for green - turning fertilizer is basically over, with only sporadic transactions in some areas and a small amount of agricultural reserve demand. Industrial demand from compound fertilizers, boards, melamine, etc. is relatively stable. With frequent policies on ensuring supply and stabilizing prices of urea and the early release of some reserve supplies, the market trading sentiment has cooled down. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline this week, and industrial demand is increasing. Although reserve supplies are being released, most urea factories still face tight supplies, and the inventory of some factories is gradually decreasing. Next week, as it is the last stage of reserve release, some local factories actively releasing reserves may lead to a further decline in enterprise inventory [6]. - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1850 - 1900 in the short term [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - by - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the domestic urea market was generally stable with minor fluctuations. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized particles in Shandong was 1820 - 1840 yuan/ton, with the average price remaining the same as the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Production may slightly increase next week. Agricultural demand is weakening, while industrial demand is stable. Policy measures have cooled down the market sentiment. The inventory of urea enterprises is likely to continue to decline [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1850 and 1900 in the short term [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures rose by 1.96% this week [9]. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of March 27, the UR 5 - 9 spread was - 51 [12]. - **Position Analysis**: Not elaborated in the content. - **Warehousing Receipts**: As of March 26, there were 9024 Zhengzhou urea warehousing receipts, an increase of 525 from the previous week [19]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of March 26, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1890 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was also 1890 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan [24]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of March 26, the FOB price of urea in China was 712.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous week [28]. - **Basis**: As of March 26, the urea basis was 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton from the previous week [32]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - As of March 25, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 690 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of March 26, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.97 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.12 US dollars/million British thermal units from the previous week [35]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: As of March 26, China's urea production was 147.56 tons, a decrease of 4.38 tons from the previous period, a 2.88% month - on - month decrease. The capacity utilization rate was 88.35%, a 3.84% decrease from the previous period [38]. - **Inventory**: As of March 26, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 16.9 tons, a 0.2 - ton increase from the previous period, a 1.20% increase. As of March 25, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 70.05 tons, a 10.84 - ton decrease from the previous period, a 13.40% decrease [42]. - **Export**: In February 2026, urea exports were 11.15 tons, a 63.78% month - on - month decrease; the average export price was 398.52 US dollars/ton, a 0.26% month - on - month increase [45]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - As of March 26, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 51.24%, a 1.27 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. The capacity utilization rate of melamine was 65.98% on average this week, a 6.67 - percentage - point increase from the previous week [49].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the agricultural meteorological conditions for various crops, including soybeans, rapeseed, palm oil, corn, cotton, apples, dates, sugarcane, beets, peanuts, wheat, and rice. It also includes ENSO forecasts and their potential impacts on crop growth and production [6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Meteorological Concerns - ENSO forecast: The probability of La Nina is 96% from February to April, 90% from March to May, and 65% from April to June [6] - Domestic: Spring wheat sowing has started in the eastern part of Northwest China. Single-season rice, spring corn, and potatoes are in the sowing and emergence stage in Southwest China. Early rice in South China is in the emergence to three-leaf stage, and in the Yangtze River Basin, it is in the sowing and emergence stage. There is a high risk of waterlogging in some farmlands in Jiangxi, Hunan, and Guizhou, which is unfavorable for rapeseed flowering, pollination, and fruiting, and affects the sowing and seedling raising of early rice and spring corn. Continuous rainy weather will aggravate the occurrence and development of rapeseed sclerotinia and wheat stripe rust [7] - International: US soybeans have not started sowing. Brazilian soybeans are in the harvesting stage, and Argentine soybeans are in the growing stage. As of March 21, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate is 67.7%, compared with 59.2% last week, 76.4% in the same period last year, and a five-year average of 66.4%. In the next 15 days, in the central-western soybean-producing areas of Brazil, the southern part will have less rainfall than normal, and the northern part will have more rainfall than normal; the temperature will be normal or higher than normal, which is favorable for crop harvesting. In the next 15 days, most areas of the Argentine soybean-producing areas will have more rainfall than normal and higher temperatures, which is unfavorable for soil moisture. European rapeseed is in the growing stage. In the next 15 days, most areas of the key producing areas in France and Germany in Europe will have less rainfall than normal and normal temperatures. There is rainfall in Indonesia and Malaysia, but it is less than normal, reducing the impact on palm fruit picking [7] 2. Meteorological Conditions in Each Crop Producing Area Soybeans - Domestic: Northeast China (including Inner Mongolia) accounts for over 60% of the total soybean output, and the Huanghuaihai region (Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui) accounts for over 15% of the total output. Both regions have not started sowing yet [11][16] - US: The soybean-producing areas are concentrated in the central part, including Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Indiana. New-season soybeans usually start to be planted in mid-April. The USDA's supply and demand report shows that the US soybean output in the 2025/26 season is 115.75 million tons, lower than 119.05 million tons in the previous season. In the next 6 - 10 days, the temperature in the US soybean-producing areas will be higher than normal, and the precipitation will be higher than normal. The drought degree has increased by 1 percentage point compared with the previous week. As of September 23, about 37% (+1) of the soybean-producing areas are in a drought state. Compared with the previous week, the area of severe drought and above (D2+) has increased by 3%, and the D3+ area remains unchanged. Overall, the drought situation has worsened. Compared with the same period last year, the D1+ area has increased by 7%, the D2+ area has increased by 5%, and the D3+ area is the same, which is worse than last year [25][26][35] - Brazil: The soybean-producing areas are concentrated in the central-western part, including Mato Grosso (28%), Paraná (13%), Rio Grande do Sul (11%), Goiás (11%), and Mato Grosso do Sul (9%). As of March 21, the soybean harvest rate is 67.7%. The USDA report estimates that the Brazilian soybean output in the 2025/26 season is 180 million tons. In the next 15 days, in the central-western soybean-producing areas of Brazil, the southern part will have less rainfall than normal, and the northern part will have more rainfall than normal; the temperature will be normal or higher than normal, which is favorable for crop harvesting [39][40][47] - Argentina: The soybean-producing areas are concentrated in the central part, including Buenos Aires (31%), Córdoba (28%), Santa Fe (19%), and Santiago del Estero (9%), accounting for about 12% of the world's output. The soybeans are in the growing stage. The USDA expects the output in the 2025/26 season to be 48.5 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.11%. In the next 15 days, most areas of the soybean-producing areas will have more rainfall than normal and higher temperatures, which is unfavorable for soil moisture [51][52][58] Rapeseed - Domestic: Spring rapeseed is planted in the Northwest and North China, accounting for about 10% of the total output, and the harvest is over. Winter rapeseed is planted in the Yangtze River Basin and Southwest China, accounting for about 50% and over 35% of the total output respectively, and both are in the full-bloom stage. In the Yangtze River Basin, there is more rainfall, and there is a high risk of waterlogging in some farmlands in Jiangxi, Hunan, and Guizhou, which is unfavorable for rapeseed flowering, pollination, and fruiting. The temperature conditions in all producing areas are suitable [62][68][73] - Canada: The rapeseed output ranks first in the world, accounting for about 22%. It is concentrated in the Prairie Provinces (Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba) and is usually sown in May. Statistics Canada estimates that the rapeseed sowing area in 2025 is 21.6 million acres, a 1.7% decrease from 22 million acres in 2024. In the next 15 days, the key rapeseed-producing areas in the three provinces will have less rainfall than normal and higher temperatures, which is unfavorable for soil moisture [78][83] - EU: The rapeseed output ranks second in the world, accounting for about 20%. The rapeseed is mainly planted in France (21%), Germany (21%), Poland (18%), Romania (6%), etc. It is in the growing stage. The consulting agency Strategic Grains estimates that the rapeseed output of the 27 EU countries in the 2025/26 season is 19 million tons, an increase of 2.2 million tons compared with 16.8 million tons in the 2024/25 season. In the next 15 days, most areas of the key producing areas in France and Germany will have less rainfall than normal and normal temperatures [87][88][94] Palm Oil - Indonesia: The main palm oil-producing areas are Sumatra and Kalimantan. There is rainfall, but it is less than normal, and the impact on palm fruit picking is small [98][107] - Malaysia: The palm oil-producing areas are concentrated in Sarawak, Sabah, Pahang, Johor, and Perak. Sabah and Sarawak together account for over 45% of the output. There is rainfall, but it is less than normal, and the impact on palm fruit picking is small [101][107] Corn - Northeast China (including Inner Mongolia) produces over 40% of the total output, and the spring corn harvest is over. The Huanghuaihai region (Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui) produces over 30% of the total output. Spring corn is about to be sown, and the summer corn harvest is over. In Southwest China, the corn output accounts for about 10% of the total output, and spring corn is in the sowing and emergence stage. The precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [118][119][123] Cotton - Xinjiang accounts for about 90% of the total output and is generally sown from April to May. The Huanghuaihai region (Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui) accounts for about 6% of the total output and is also generally sown from April to May. The harvest is over, and the precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [133][134][138] Apples - The Bohai Bay region (Shandong, Liaoning, Hebei, Beijing, and Tianjin) accounts for about 33% of the total output, and the apples are in the budding stage. The Loess Plateau region in the Northwest (Weibei in Shaanxi, southern and central Shanxi, Sanmenxia in Henan, and eastern Gansu) accounts for about 60% of the total output, and the apples are also in the budding stage. The precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [147][148][153] Dates - Xinjiang accounts for about 50% of the total output and is generally sown in late April. The Loess Plateau region (Shanxi and Shaanxi) accounts for over 20% of the total output and is also generally sown in late April. The Huanghuaihai region (Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui) accounts for over 20% of the total output, and the jujube harvest is over. The precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [162][163][168] Sugarcane - Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guangdong account for 68.6%, 14.8%, and 12.6% of the total output respectively, and are in the sowing stage. The precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [176][181][185] Beets - Xinjiang accounts for about 39% of the total output, and most are spring-sown, with the harvest over. The North China region accounts for about 57% of the total output, and most are also spring-sown, with the harvest over. The precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [190][195][199] Peanuts - Northeast China accounts for about 10% of the total output, and the harvest is over. The Huanghuaihai region (Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui) accounts for over 60% of the total output, and both spring and summer peanuts have been harvested. The South China region accounts for over 10% of the total output, and spring peanuts are in the germination and emergence stage, while autumn peanuts have been harvested. In the South China region, there is more rainfall in some areas, and there is a high risk of waterlogging in low-lying farmlands [204][205][211] Wheat - The Northwest region accounts for over 10% of the total output, mainly planting spring wheat, which is in the greening to standing stage. The Huanghuaihai region (Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui) accounts for over 80% of the total output, mainly planting winter wheat, which is in the standing to jointing stage. There is more rainfall, which will aggravate the occurrence and development of wheat stripe rust and other diseases. The temperature conditions are suitable [220][225][229] Rice - Northeast China produces about 20% of the total output, and the single-season rice harvest is over. The Yangtze River Basin produces over 40% of the total output, with single and double-season rice coexisting. Early rice is in the sowing and emergence stage, single-season rice is in the sowing stage, and late rice has been harvested. Southwest China produces about 14% of the total output, mainly single-season double-cropping rice, with indica and japonica rice coexisting, and single-season rice is in the sowing and emergence stage. South China produces about 12.5% of the total output, mainly double-season indica rice, with multiple crops a year. Early rice is in the emergence to three-leaf stage, and late rice has been harvested. There is a high risk of waterlogging in some farmlands in Jiangxi, Hunan, and Guizhou, which affects the sowing and seedling raising of early rice and other crops. The temperature conditions are suitable [234][239][241]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive daily analysis of the stock index futures market, including the IM, IF, IC, and IH contracts, covering aspects such as daily quotes, trading volume, open interest, basis, and positions of major seats [4][23][43][58] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs IM Contracts - **Daily Quotes**: The IM main contract rose 1.87% to close at 7,523.8 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 225,995 lots, an increase of 28,948 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 383,089 lots, an increase of 1,557 lots from the previous day. The main contract was at a discount of 222.51 points, up 41.27 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -12.27% [4][5] - **Position Analysis**: The document details the trading volume, long positions, and short positions of major seats in different contracts (IM2604, IM2606, IM2609), including the changes compared to the previous day [17][19][21] IF Contracts - **Daily Quotes**: The IF main contract rose 0.72% to close at 4,427.4 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 90,011 lots, an increase of 4,484 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 258,716 lots, an increase of 4,911 lots from the previous day. The main contract was at a discount of 75.17 points, up 6.36 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -7.04% [23][24] - **Position Analysis**: The document details the trading volume, long positions, and short positions of major seats in different contracts (IF2604, IF2606, IF2609), including the changes compared to the previous day [38][40][41] IC Contracts - **Daily Quotes**: The IC main contract rose 1.8% to close at 7,559.2 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 156,429 lots, an increase of 19,058 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 287,610 lots, an increase of 7,793 lots from the previous day. The main contract was at a discount of 178.41 points, up 49.92 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -9.79% [43][44] - **Position Analysis**: The document details the trading volume, long positions, and short positions of major seats in different contracts (IC2604, IC2606, IC2609), including the changes compared to the previous day [53][54][56] IH Contracts - **Daily Quotes**: The IH main contract rose 0.39% to close at 2,814.4 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 44,352 lots, an increase of 1,979 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 101,939 lots, an increase of 806 lots from the previous day. The main contract was at a discount of 22.91 points, down 3.04 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -3.38% [58][59] - **Position Analysis**: The document details the trading volume, long positions, and short positions of major seats in different contracts (IH2604, IH2606, IH2609), including the changes compared to the previous day [69][71][73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, there are doubts about the so - called US - Iran peace talks. The US is reported to be formulating a "fatal blow" military plan against Iran, and Iran believes the US negotiation stance is a "third deception" plan. Oil prices have risen again, the Fed's interest - rate hike expectations have resurfaced, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields have strengthened significantly, and global risk appetite has cooled significantly. Domestically, the Chinese economy rebounded better than expected from January to February, exports far exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover. The goals and policy intensity in the government work report for 2026 are lower than those in 2025. The short - term trading logic of the market focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks. In the short term, the domestic economy is better than expected, but due to the mixed geopolitical news in the Middle East, the stock index fluctuates weakly and with increased volatility. [3][4] - For assets, the stock index fluctuates weakly and with increased volatility in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously; government bonds fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously; in the commodity sector, black metals fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously; non - ferrous metals fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously; energy and chemical products fluctuate significantly in the short term, and it is advisable to go long cautiously; precious metals fluctuate significantly and weaken in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas, doubts about the US - Iran peace talks, rising oil prices, resurgent Fed interest - rate hike expectations, strengthening of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and cooling of global risk appetite. Domestically, the economy and inflation are better than expected in January - February, and the goals and policy intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The short - term stock index fluctuates weakly and with increased volatility. [3] - Asset suggestions: short - term cautious wait - and - see for stock indices, government bonds, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals; short - term cautious long - position for energy and chemical products. [3] 3.2 Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as insurance, communication services, and photovoltaics, the domestic stock market continued to decline significantly. The economy and inflation are better than expected from January to February, and the goals and policy intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The short - term trading logic focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks, and the stock index fluctuates weakly and with increased volatility. It is advisable to wait and see cautiously in the short term. [4] 3.3 Precious Metals - The precious metals market fell on Thursday night. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 980.08 yuan/gram, down 2.83%; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 16841 yuan/kilogram, down 5.66%. Spot gold restarted its decline, and finally closed down 2.85% at 4377.95 US dollars/ounce; spot silver finally closed down 4.32% at 68.11 US dollars/ounce. Precious metals fluctuate significantly and weaken in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously. [5] 3.4 Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets declined slightly on Thursday, and the trading volume was low. The real demand improved marginally, the apparent consumption of five major steel products increased by 19.49 tons week - on - week, and the inventory decline continued to expand. The supply decreased slightly this week, but the molten iron output increased. The steel market will follow the cost in the short term, and attention should be paid to the price adjustment risk after the cost decline. [6][7] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore rebounded significantly on Thursday, and the futures performance was relatively strong. There are rumors of setbacks in iron ore negotiations. The demand for iron ore is still resilient, and the supply has increased. It is expected that the room for further price increase is limited, and attention should be paid to the phased adjustment risk after the energy price weakens. [7] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded on Thursday, and the futures continued to fluctuate. The alloy prices were supported by the rebound of crude oil prices. The operating rate of silicon manganese increased slightly, and the daily output decreased slightly. The steel procurement in March has basically ended, and the market is waiting for the situation in April. It is advisable to treat the futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese with a slightly bullish and fluctuating mindset. [8] 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The copper spot TC is close to - 70 US dollars/ton, a new low. The by - product income makes up for the smelting profit. The refined copper production growth rate is high. The core contradiction lies in the mine end. The inventories at home and abroad are accumulating, and the social inventory has decreased significantly. The sustainability of inventory reduction needs to be observed. [9] - **Aluminum**: On Thursday, due to Iran's opposition to the US proposal, the risk appetite decreased, but the aluminum price was supported. The domestic primary aluminum production increased significantly from January to February, and the pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas may change temporarily. The domestic primary aluminum import remains high, and the supply pressure still exists. [9] - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc ingot inventory continued to decline to 21.44 tons on Thursday, but it is still at a high level in recent years. The zinc ore processing fees in some regions have rebounded, and the domestic smelting output remains relatively high. The demand is not optimistic. [9][10] - **Lead**: The imports of refined lead and crude lead increased significantly from January to February. The production of primary lead and secondary lead increased seasonally. The demand is entering the off - season, and the social inventory of primary lead has decreased. The LME lead inventory is at a high level in the same period in recent years. [11] - **Nickel**: Indonesia may levy a windfall tax on nickel from April 1. The core contradiction lies in the mine end. The RKAB quota in 2026 has decreased significantly, and the MHP supply may decline. The nickel price has support below, but the upside is limited due to high inventories at home and abroad. [12] - **Tin**: The imports of tin ore from Myanmar increased significantly in the first two months, and the import sources are more diversified. The demand is not good overall, but the social inventory has decreased due to downstream replenishment. [13] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate fell 0.64% on Thursday. The supply and demand are both strong, and the social inventory is continuously decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the support range, and it is advisable to lay out positions at low prices. [14] - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon rose 0.58% on Thursday. The supply and demand are both weak, the production capacity is surplus, and the inventory is at a high level. It is priced close to the cost, and it is advisable to operate within the range. [15] - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon fell 2.78% on Thursday. The inventory is continuously accumulating at a high level, and the spot price is falling. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable for short - sellers to hold positions cautiously or take profits in a timely manner. [15] 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US sent mixed signals, and the market is not sure if the US - Iran negotiation will end the Middle - East conflict quickly. Trump postponed the strike on Iran's energy facilities by 10 days. The short - term oil price will face a pattern of a slightly rising center and increased volatility. [16] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price follows the rising oil price, but the downstream is in the off - season, and the demand is affected by high prices. The supply is low, and the short - term absolute price will fluctuate significantly with the oil price. [16] - **PX**: The PX price follows the rising oil price, but the downstream start - up recovery is slow, and it is affected by negative feedback. It is likely to fluctuate in the short term. [17] - **PTA**: The PTA price follows the rising oil price, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious, and the rebound space is limited. It will remain slightly bullish and fluctuating before the oil price rises significantly. [17] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price rebounds slightly with the rising oil price. The port inventory reduction is limited, and the export expectation is increasing. The basis has strengthened slightly and is likely to fluctuate after a decline. [18] - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price remains slightly bullish and fluctuating with the rising oil price. The downstream production reduction suppresses the recovery space, but it can be supported by the cost in the later stage. [18] - **Methanol**: The inland methanol market is strong, and the port basis has strengthened. The inventory at the port and production enterprises has decreased. The supply has tightened, and the fundamentals have been repaired. The price is still firm, but attention should be paid to the marginal changes caused by geopolitical relaxation and downstream negative feedback. [19] - **PP**: The price of PP is supported by the continuous inventory reduction. The market is expected to remain strong, and the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz is the main uncertainty. [20] - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE price is firm. The supply is decreasing, the demand is increasing, and the inventory is being reduced rapidly. It is expected to continue to operate strongly, and geopolitical dynamics are the key variables affecting the external supply. [21] - **Urea**: The domestic urea market is stable. The supply has decreased slightly, the demand shows a pattern of "weak agricultural and strong industrial", and the export policy window is closed. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. [22][23] 3.7 Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The 05 - month soybean contract on the CBOT market closed down 0.06% overnight. The US soybean export sales increased significantly in the week ending March 19. Attention should be paid to the revised biofuel blending target and the end - of - month planting area report on Friday. [24] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of imported soybeans and soybean meal is decreasing rapidly, supporting the soybean meal basis. The risk of delayed shipment and arrival of Brazilian soybeans still exists. The rapeseed meal inventory has increased, and it fluctuates with the soybean meal. [24] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing rapidly, and the supply is tight in the short term, supporting the basis. The supply pressure of rapeseed oil may increase, and it is under pressure along with soybean and palm oil. [25] - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil futures rose 0.35% overnight, supported by the strong Chicago soybean oil price, rising crude oil price, and strong export data. The domestic palm oil import is affected by the inverted profit, and the market transaction is light. [25] - **Corn**: The national corn price adjusts within a narrow range. The futures price fluctuates strongly, supporting the spot market. The sales of grassroots grain sources in the producing areas have slowed down, and the inventory at ports and deep - processing enterprises is low. However, the acceptance of high - priced corn by downstream feed enterprises is decreasing, and the possible rice auction in early April may have a negative impact. [26] - **Hogs**: The pig production capacity is in the pain period of adjustment, the demand is slightly improving but still in the off - season, and the breeding loss is increasing. The short - term futures and spot prices may continue to fall, and there are risks in the futures market. [27][28]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On Thursday, polyolefins traded in a consolidative manner, opening slightly higher in the night session and then falling back. For linear LL, Sinopec kept prices stable while PetroChina lowered some prices by 100. For拉丝 PP, both Sinopec and PetroChina kept prices stable. Due to increased Middle - East tensions, oil prices have shifted to a volatile pattern. Currently, the macro - environment has a fluctuating impact on the chemicals market. In the future, attention should be paid to the actual operating conditions of plants and the support of demand at lower levels [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 8338, 8767, and 8632 respectively, with price increases of 65, 52, and 64, and percentage increases of 0.79%, 0.60%, and 0.75%. The trading volumes were 6530, 733675, and 280021, and the open interests were 13238, 322033, and 177527, with increases of 1721, 2213, and 17018 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 429, 135, and 294, compared with previous values of - 442, 147, and 295 [2] - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 8404, 9120, and 8809 respectively, with price increases of 198, 145, and 217, and percentage increases of 2.41%, 1.62%, and 2.53%. The trading volumes were 6094, 1030746, and 309387, and the open interests were 19662, 343310, and 206566, with increases of 639, 4112, and 24477 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 716, 311, and 405, compared with previous values of - 769, 383, and 386 [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 3198 yuan/ton, 8800 yuan/ton, 1050 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 8830 yuan/ton, and 9600 yuan/ton respectively, compared with previous values of 3092 yuan/ton, 8985 yuan/ton, 980 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 8740 yuan/ton, and 9600 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream**: The current prices of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 8450 - 9600 yuan/ton, 8450 - 9500 yuan/ton, and 8800 - 9500 yuan/ton respectively, compared with previous values of 8350 - 9400 yuan/ton, 8300 - 9200 yuan/ton, and 8650 - 9550 yuan/ton. The current prices of PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 8850 - 9050 yuan/ton, 8850 - 8950 yuan/ton, and 9150 - 9300 yuan/ton respectively, compared with previous values of 8650 - 8800 yuan/ton, 8600 - 8800 yuan/ton, and 8700 - 9200 yuan/ton [2] News - On Thursday (March 26), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for May 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $94.48 per barrel, up $4.16 or 4.61% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $89.51 - $95.44. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for May 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $108.01 per barrel, up $5.79 or 5.66% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $102.75 - $109.05 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current shipping market is in a stage of shock consolidation. The geopolitical risk premium has declined, the tension in Red Sea navigation has eased, and the market is gradually returning to fundamentals. The European terminal cargo volume is in a weak recovery state, and the support of liner companies' capacity control on prices has weakened. The market lacks clear one - way trading guidance, and the follow - up market will be jointly dominated by fundamentals and market sentiment [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shipping Derivatives Data - China Export Container Freight Rates: The SCFI - US West index is 1121 with a 4.52% increase; SCFI - US East is 1707 with a - 0.20% change; SCFIS - US West is 1109 with a - 1.07% change; SCFI - Northwest Europe is 2922 with a - 6.08% change; CCFI composite index is 1636 with a 1.11% increase; SCFI is 2054 with a - 8.67% change; SCFI - Mediterranean is 1556 with a 0.71% increase; SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 2784 with a 4.43% increase [1][2] Geopolitical Situation - Trump demands Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, threatening to destroy Iranian power plants. An oil tanker operator has paid about $2 million for passage rights in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran warns of a counter - attack if the US takes military action, and Houthi rebels may join the fight next week. Deterring other straits is an option for the "Resistance Front" [3] Market Analysis - The European container shipping line has seen wide - range shocks today, with significant intraday fluctuations. The far - month contracts are more pressured than the near - month ones, and the trading volume has decreased. The geopolitical risk premium has declined, and the market is returning to fundamentals. The European terminal cargo volume is in a weak recovery, and the support of liner companies' capacity control on prices has weakened. The market lacks clear one - way trading guidance, and the exchange has issued new contract risk control rules [4] Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [5]