1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish Outlook**: Crude oil, methanol, gold, silver, copper, iron ore, corn, lithium carbonate [6] - **Bearish Outlook**: Zinc, cotton, apple, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, stock index (IH, IF, IC, IM) [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The scale of China's public - offering funds has exceeded 36 trillion yuan, with bond funds slightly decreasing due to the stock - bond seesaw effect. The US GDP growth rate in Q2 was revised up, and the PCE price index indicated persistent inflation. The market's expectation of a rate cut in October has cooled [1]. - For the stock index, September was more volatile, in a high - level consolidation phase after continuous growth. The long - term strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just begun. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [2][12]. - The SC crude oil rose slightly at night. Russia will ban diesel exports and extend the gasoline export ban. The global decline rate of oil and gas field production has accelerated. Future OPEC production increase should be monitored [3][14]. - The glass futures continued to rebound, and the supply - demand situation was slowly improving. The inventory of glass and soda ash was being digested. Attention should be paid to autumn consumption and policy changes [4][18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main News of the Day 3.1.1 International News - The US GDP in Q2 was revised up to an annualized quarter - on - quarter growth of 3.8%, and the core PCE price index was revised up to 2.6% [7]. 3.1.2 Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce included three US entities in the export control list and three Taiwan - related US entities in the unreliable entity list [8]. 3.1.3 Industry News - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed measures to control the expansion of copper smelting capacity, and relevant departments are studying regulatory measures [9]. 3.2 Daily Returns of External Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, London silver, ICE No. 11 sugar, CBOT soybeans, CBOT wheat, CBOT corn, and CBOT soybean oil all rose, while LME copper and CBOT soybean meal fell [11]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Financial Products - **Stock Index**: After the decline of US indices, the previous trading day's stock index rebounded. The financing balance increased. In the long - term, the strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has started [2][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rebounded after hitting the bottom. The central bank continued to inject medium - term liquidity. The domestic economic situation was still in adjustment. With the Fed's rate cut, the central bank's policy space has increased, but policy adjustment needs central government deployment. It is recommended to be bearish on long - term bonds and neutral on short - term bonds [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose slightly at night. Russia restricted fuel exports, and the global decline rate of oil and gas field production accelerated. Future OPEC production increase should be monitored [3][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased, and the coastal inventory decreased. It is short - term bearish [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fell slightly. Supply may increase, the bonded area inventory decreased, and tire production increased. It is expected to fluctuate within a range [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins rebounded slightly. Prices follow the cost, and future demand and supply policies should be monitored. It may fluctuate within a low - level range [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures continued to rebound, and the supply - demand situation was slowly improving. The inventory of glass and soda ash decreased. Attention should be paid to autumn consumption and policy changes [4][18]. 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend paused. The Fed's rate - cut stance was cautious, but the rate - cut prospect was clear. The long - term driver for gold was still there, but there was short - term adjustment [20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell at night. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap, which will support copper prices in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose slightly at night. The smelting output may increase, and the short - term supply may be in surplus. It may fluctuate weakly within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Weekly production increased. Inventory was being digested rapidly. It may fluctuate in the short - term, and the actual situation of projects in Jiangxi should be monitored [23]. 3.3.4 Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night - session prices were weak. The fundamentals of finished steel products improved, and the prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [25]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills resumed production, and iron ore demand was supported. Global iron ore shipments decreased, and port inventory decreased rapidly. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [26]. - **Steel**: The profitability of steel mills remained stable, and supply pressure increased. The supply - demand contradiction was not significant, and the market is expected to be bullish, with hot - rolled coils stronger than rebar [27]. 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Soybean meal fell at night, and rapeseed meal was strong. Argentina temporarily cancelled export taxes, but the exemption period ended early. Domestic soybean meal may fluctuate at a low level [28]. - **Edible Oils**: Edible oils were strong at night. The impact of floods in Malaysia on palm oil production was limited. After digesting the negative news of Argentina's tax cancellation, oil prices rebounded [29]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be weak, while domestic sugar prices are supported by low inventory but pressured by imports. Zhengzhou sugar may fluctuate after a rebound [30]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton prices rose slightly. International supply pressure still exists, and domestic new - cotton purchase is in focus. Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [31]. 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC rebounded. Shipping companies signaled post - holiday price support, but success depends on cargo volume and capacity control. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [32].

Report Information - Report Date: September 26, 2025 [2] - Industry: Oils and Fats [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the short - term, the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range, while the 05 contract should be traded with a strategy of low - buying and rolling long. In the long - term, the trend of oils and fats is bullish due to favorable biodiesel policies. Attention should be paid to China - US negotiations and biofuel policies [8] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Market Review: In the East China market, the spot price of Grade 3 rapeseed oil is OI2601 + 250, and from October to November it is OI2601 + 260. The price of Grade 1 rapeseed oil in October is OI2601 + 360, and from November to December it is OI2601 + 380. The basis price of Grade 1 soybean oil in the East China market is 01 + 220 from December to January, 01 + 240 from December to February, 01 + 200 from January to March, and 05 + 250 from April to July. In the Guangdong market, palm oil quotes from traders are stable, with 18 - degree palm oil priced at 01 + 140 in Guangzhou warehouse and 01 + 120 in Dongguan warehouse, 24 - degree and 28 - degree palm oil at 01 - 40 in Dongguan warehouse [7] - Operational Suggestions: Argentina has resumed tariffs as the $7 billion registration quota for agricultural tax exemptions has been used up. In July, Indonesia's palm oil inventory increased by 1.5% month - on - month to 2.57 million tons due to increased production and slower exports. In 2026, Indonesia's palm oil exports to the EU are expected to grow. Malaysia's high - frequency data shows a decline in production but favorable export data. Rapeseed oil continues to reduce inventory in the short term, with concentrated supply and rising basis prices. Domestic oils and fats supply is sufficient this year but may be in short supply in the first quarter of next year. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the 05 contract should be traded with a low - buying and rolling long strategy [8] 2. Industry News - From September 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 4.26% month - on - month, with a decline of 8.23% in Peninsular Malaysia, an increase of 0.73% in Sabah, an increase of 7.63% in Sarawak, and an increase of 2.64% in East Malaysia [9] - From September 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 1.185422 million tons, an increase of 11.3% compared to 1.065005 million tons from August 1 - 25 [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents data on the spot prices of East China's Grade 3 rapeseed oil, Grade 4 soybean oil, and South China's 24 - degree palm oil, as well as the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, and the price spreads of palm oil contracts. It also includes the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the Malaysian ringgit [11][13][14][21][26][27]

Report Information - Reported Industry: Fats and Oils [1] - Date: September 25, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - East China converted third - grade rapeseed oil: Spot price is OI2601 + 250, from October to November it's OI2601 + 260. East China converted first - grade rapeseed oil: In October it's OI2601 + 360, from November to December it's OI2601 + 380. - East China market first - grade soybean oil basis price: From December to January it's 01+220, from December to February it's 01+240, from January to March it's 01+200, from April to July it's 05+250. - Guangdong traders' palm oil quotes are temporarily stable: 18 - degree is 01+140 (Guangzhou warehouse), 18 - degree is 01+120 (Dongguan warehouse), 24 - degree is 01 - 40 (Dongguan warehouse), 28 - degree is 01 - 40 (Dongguan warehouse) [7] Core Viewpoints - The Argentine government temporarily cancelled tariffs on soybeans and their derivatives until October 31 or until export volume reaches $7 billion. The fats and oils market rebounded after a sharp decline. Argentina may increase soybean exports to China by 2 - 4 million tons after the tax cut, advancing supply. Domestic fats and oils supply is sufficient this year, but there may be a temporary shortage in Q1 next year. - Near - term rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline, with concentrated supply. Traders are holding prices, and the basis quote is rising. Monitor China - Canada trade and rapeseed supply. - For the 01 contract, it has both upside pressure and downside support, so expect range - bound trading. For the 05 contract, consider low - buying and rolling long positions. In the long - term, fats and oils are bullish due to biodiesel policies. Monitor China - US negotiations and biofuel policies [8] 2. Industry News - SPPOMA data shows that from September 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.89% month - on - month, with FFB yield down 6.57% and OER down 0.25% month - on - month. - ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 20 were 1,010,032 tons, an 8.7% increase from August 1 - 20. Exports to China were 30,400 tons, lower than 40,800 tons in the same period last month. - SGS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 20 were 559,829 tons, a 16.1% decrease from August 1 - 20 [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents various data charts including spot prices of East China third - grade rapeseed oil, East China fourth - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, and basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as price spreads and exchange rates [11][13][14][21][26][27]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the oil and fat industry dated September 24, 2025, focusing on the analysis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil markets [2][3] Group 2: Data Analysis Spot Prices and Basis - Soybean oil spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8310, 8430, and 8280 respectively, with basis of 330, 210, and 180, and the 2601 contract closed at 8100 with a gain of 14 [3] - Palm oil spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 9046, 9126, and 9226 respectively, with basis of -80, 0, and 100, and the 2601 contract closed at 9126 with a gain of 72 [3] - Rapeseed oil spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong are 10171, 10141, and 10141 respectively, with basis of 250, 220, and 220, and the 2601 contract closed at 9921 with a loss of 75 [3] Monthly Spread - The 1 - 5 monthly spread for soybean oil is 248 with a gain of 10, for palm oil is 182 with a loss of 16, and for rapeseed oil is 484 with a loss of 45 [3] Cross - Variety Spread - The 01 contract Y - P spread is -1026 with a loss of 89, OI - Y spread is 1821, and OI - P spread is 795 with a loss of 147, and the oil - meal ratio is 2.76 with a gain of 0.003 [3] Import Profit - The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia & Indonesia has a negative profit of -230 with a CNF price of 1090 for the 10 - week ship, and the Rotterdam's crude rapeseed oil has a negative profit of -559 with a FOB price of 1065 for the 10 - week ship [3] Weekly Commercial Inventory - As of the 38th week of 2025, soybean oil inventory is 123.6 million tons, palm oil is 58.5 million tons, and rapeseed oil is 58.6 million tons [3] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - Industry analyst Dorab Mistry said that Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures may rise 27% to 5500 ringgit per ton in Q1 next year due to increased biodiesel consumption in Indonesia and productivity decline in plantations [5] Domestic Market - Palm oil futures closed slightly higher. As of September 19, 2025, the national commercial inventory decreased by 8.79% week - on - week. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and light - position long trials can be considered [5] - Soybean oil futures closed slightly higher. Last week, the soybean crushing volume was 236.04 million tons. As of September 19, 2025, the national commercial inventory decreased by 1.22% week - on - week. China's August import volume increased by 113.9% year - on - year. Long trials can be considered after the negative sentiment fades [6][8] - Rapeseed oil futures closed slightly lower. Last week, the coastal crushing volume was 4.8 million tons. As of September 19, 2025, the coastal inventory decreased by 3.93% week - on - week. China's August import volume increased by 18.7% year - on - year. The inventory continues to decline, which supports the price [8] Group 4: Trading Strategy Unilateral - The oil and fat market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and long trials can be considered after the sentiment fades [10] Arbitrage - Wait and see [10] Options - Consider selling put - type strategies during pullbacks [10] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts showing the spot basis, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil from 2016 - 2025 [13][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors in the financial and commodity markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity futures. It points out that market trends are influenced by a combination of factors, such as macro - economic policies, supply - demand balances, and geopolitical situations. Different sectors present different trends, with some in a state of shock, others showing signs of weakness or strength, and the overall market is complex and changeable. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market showed an overall correction on Tuesday, with the main stock indexes fluctuating downwards during the session and rebounding slightly at the end. The main contracts of the four major stock index futures had mixed performances. The banking and precious metals sectors among the cyclical sectors were strong, while technology stocks corrected. It is recommended to lightly sell put options on MO2511 near the strike price of 6600 when the index corrects to collect premiums [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally rose. The central bank's open - market operations led to a net withdrawal of funds, and the bond market sentiment was weak. It is recommended to operate within a range, lightly test long positions when the market sentiment stabilizes at low levels, and appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy for the TL contract [5][8]. Precious Metals - The US dollar index remained weak, and safe - haven sentiment drove funds to flow into gold, pushing up its price. The price of international gold reached a high and then narrowed its gains, while silver showed a slight decline. It is recommended to buy gold on dips or buy out - of - the - money call options, and sell out - of - the - money put options on silver when the price is above $41 [9][12][13]. Container Shipping Index (European Route) - The EC futures market oscillated. The spot freight rates showed a certain range of fluctuations, and the market had digested the impact of the previous spot decline. It is recommended to wait and see in a volatile market [14][15]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper market oscillated. The spot price declined, and the downstream was less willing to buy at high prices. The supply side was affected by factors such as smelter maintenance, and the demand side improved after the price decline. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 79,000 - 81,000 yuan [15][17][20]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market was in a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The futures price was in a bottom - wide oscillation. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to pay attention to policy changes in Guinea and cost - profit changes [20][22][23]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price declined, and the market trading activity increased slightly. The supply was at a high level, the demand entered the peak season, and the inventory was still in a state of accumulation. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to pay attention to the double - festival stocking and inventory inflection points [23][25]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The pre - holiday stocking demand provided phased support for the spot price. The supply was tight, the demand was gradually recovering, and the inventory was accumulating. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the supply of scrap aluminum and import policies [25][27][28]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market was in a state of supply - demand differentiation at home and abroad. The domestic supply was loose, and the demand was in the peak season. The short - term price was expected to oscillate, with the main contract referring to the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan [28][30][31]. - **Tin**: The import of tin ore in August remained at a low level, and the supply was tight. The demand was in a state of "weak supply and demand". It is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the price range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the import situation of tin ore from Myanmar [31][33][34]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market oscillated weakly. The supply was at a high level, the demand was relatively stable in some areas and general in others. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 119,000 - 124,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations and ore - related news [34][35][36]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market oscillated narrowly. The raw material prices were firm, the supply was under pressure, and the demand had not significantly increased. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,800 - 13,200 yuan, and attention should be paid to steel - mill dynamics and pre - holiday stocking [37][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium - carbonate market oscillated. The supply and demand were in a tight balance during the peak season. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in orders [41][44]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market was affected by factors such as export support and seasonal demand changes. The price was expected to oscillate at a high level, with the thread referring to the range of 3100 - 3350 yuan and the hot - rolled coil referring to the range of 3300 - 3500 yuan. It is recommended to lightly try long positions and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of apparent demand [44][46]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore market was supported by factors such as reduced shipments and increased iron - water production. The price was expected to oscillate upwards, with the range of 780 - 850 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil [47][48]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking - coal market was in a state of supply - demand balance and tightening. The price was expected to oscillate upwards, with the range of 1150 - 1300 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [49][51]. - **Coke**: The coke market was in a process of price adjustment. The price was expected to rebound gradually, with the range of 1650 - 1800 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [52][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: Argentina's cancellation of the export tax on soybeans and their derivatives put pressure on the two - meal market. The domestic meal supply was abundant, and the market was expected to oscillate weakly [56][59]. - **Pigs**: The pig market had a large slaughter pressure, and the spot price was difficult to improve before the National Day. The market was expected to adjust weakly, and the previous reverse - spread strategy was recommended to be withdrawn and observed [60][61].

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and shifted to a volatile state. The technology sector still dominates the market. With the holiday approaching, capital activity has declined [2]. - Without incremental negative factors, 1.8% may be the high point for the 10 - year Treasury yield, but in the absence of strong positive factors, the short - term downward movement of the yield is also limited, with resistance around 1.75% [2]. - Gold remains in a high - level volatile state, and its volatility may rise again. Silver has high upward elasticity driven by突发事件 but the sentiment fades quickly [2]. - The EC futures contract continues to decline, and the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel exports support the valuation of the black commodity sector, and the spread between hot - rolled and rebar contracts is narrowing [2]. - The decline in iron ore shipments, the rebound in molten iron production, and the restocking demand support the strong price of iron ore [2]. - Coal prices at production areas are stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream restocking demand supports the upward trend of coal futures [2]. - The copper market is in a volatile consolidation phase, and the spot trading volume is good below 80,000 [2]. - There are more supply - side disturbances in Guinea for aluminum, and it is expected to fluctuate widely around the bottom of 2900 in the short term [2]. - The supply of tin ore imports remained low in August, providing fundamental support [2]. - Concerns about marginal increases in oil supply have led to a downward shift in short - term oil prices, but geopolitical factors still provide some support [2]. - The high supply pressure of urea persists, and the progress of urea factory orders before the National Day needs attention [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for PX has further weakened, and the cost side is also weak, putting short - term pressure on prices [2]. - The supply - demand situation of PTA has improved slightly but remains weak in the medium term, with limited driving forces [2]. - The short - fiber market has no obvious short - term drivers and follows the raw material price fluctuations [2]. - The demand for bottle - grade polyester chips has improved temporarily, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose, with limited upside for processing fees [2]. - The new ethylene glycol plant commissioning expectation and the weak terminal market put pressure on the upside of MEG [2]. - With the holiday approaching, the mid - stream of caustic soda is in a wait - and - see mode, and the spot price is under pressure [2]. - The spot procurement enthusiasm for PVC is average, and the market is in a volatile state [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene has weakened, and the price driving force is limited [2]. - The weak oil price expectation puts pressure on the absolute price of styrene [2]. - The cost and supply - demand drivers for synthetic rubber are limited, and it may follow the trends of natural rubber and other commodities [2]. - The sentiment in the LLDPE spot market has weakened, and the basis remains stable [2]. - The number of PP plant overhauls has increased, and the trading volume is average [2]. - The port inventory of methanol has been accumulating, and the price is weak [2]. - After Argentina取消 the export tax, the two -粕 market is under pressure again [2]. - The pig slaughter pressure is high, and the spot price is unlikely to improve before the National Day [2]. - Under the bearish expectation, the corn futures price continues to decline [2]. - The Sino - US talks did not release incremental positive factors, and the oilseed market is in a volatile adjustment phase [2]. - The overseas sugar supply outlook is broad [2]. - With new cotton gradually coming onto the market, the supply pressure is increasing [2]. - The local domestic sales in the egg market still provide some support for demand, but the long - term trend is bearish [2]. - The early Fuji apples are traded at negotiated prices, and the sales volume is acceptable [2]. - The spot price of red dates fluctuates slightly, and the futures market is in a volatile state [2]. - The overall sentiment in the soda ash market has declined, and the price is trending weakly [2]. - The production and sales of glass have weakened, and the futures price has declined [2]. - Affected by typhoon weather, the rubber price is strongly volatile in the short term [2]. - The market sentiment for industrial silicon has weakened, and the price has declined [2]. - Affected by fundamental sentiment, the polysilicon price has dropped significantly [2]. - With no new news, the market sentiment for lithium carbonate is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance during the peak season [2]. Summaries by Categories Equity Index Futures - Recommend selling short - term put options on the IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and MO2511 contracts near the strike price of 6600 when the index pulls back to collect option premiums [2]. Treasury Futures - The T2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 107.5 and 108.35. For single - side strategies, investors are advised to trade within the range, and consider going long lightly when the price pulls back to the low level if the market sentiment stabilizes, but should pay attention to taking profits in time. For the spot - futures strategy, the basis of the TL contract is oscillating at a high level, and investors can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [2]. Precious Metals - For gold, consider buying at low levels or buying out - of - the - money call options instead of going long. For silver, sell out - of - the - money put options when the price is high [2]. Freight Index Futures (EC) - Consider the spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [2]. Black Commodities - For steel, try to go long on pullbacks and narrow the spread between the January hot - rolled and rebar contracts. For iron ore, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 780 - 850, and consider a long - iron - ore short - hot - rolled strategy. For coking coal, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1150 - 1300, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy. For coke, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1650 - 1800, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - For copper, the main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000. For aluminum, the main contract reference range is 20,600 - 21,000. For aluminum alloy, the main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,600. For zinc, the main contract reference range is 21,500 - 22,500 [2][3]. Energy and Chemicals - For crude oil, temporarily observe on the single - side, with the support range of WTI at [60, 61], Brent at [63, 64], and SC at [467, 474]. For urea, wait for the implied volatility to rise and then narrow it. For PX, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend and pay attention to the support around 6500. For PTA, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend, pay attention to the support around 4500, and consider a rolling reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For short - fiber, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee oscillates between 800 - 1100. For bottle - grade polyester chips, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500. For ethylene glycol, sell call options on rallies and consider a reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For caustic soda, adopt a short - selling strategy. For PVC, observe. For pure benzene, it will follow the benzene - ethylene and oil price fluctuations in the short term. For benzene - ethylene, short on absolute price rebounds and widen the spread between the November benzene - ethylene and November pure - benzene contracts. For synthetic rubber, pay attention to the support around 11,400. For LLDPE, observe near the previous low. For PP, observe in the short term. For methanol, observe as the downward space is currently limited [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans and rapeseed meal, adjust weakly in the short term. For live pigs, pay attention to the reverse spread opportunities between the January - May and March - July contracts. For corn, it is in a weak trend. For oils, the main palm oil contract adjusts weakly in the short term. For sugar, hold short positions. For cotton, adopt a short - selling strategy in the short term. For eggs, control the short - position size. For apples, the main contract runs around 8300. For red dates, it is bearish in the medium - to - long term. For soda ash, observe. For glass, observe. For rubber, observe. For industrial silicon, the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, observe temporarily. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to run between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current stance of China's monetary policy is supportive, implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. The market risk appetite has increased due to the strengthened expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the US stock market has reached a record high [1]. - The Chinese capital market is in the initial stage of strategic allocation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are rich in technology - growth components, are more aggressive, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices, which are rich in dividend - blue - chip components, are more defensive [4][11]. - With the Fed entering the interest rate cut cycle, the policy space for the domestic central bank has expanded, but the short - term capital market has tightened, and the bond futures prices have fluctuated at a low level [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Key Varieties - **Fats and Oils**: The night - session of fats and oils was weak. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in early September, and Argentina's cancellation of export taxes on soybean oil and soybean meal dragged down the short - term performance of the fats and oils sector [2][29]. - **Gold**: After the Fed's interest rate decision, gold and silver initially declined and then strengthened again, reaching a new high this week. The long - term driving force for gold remains clear, and the expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Fed has continued the bullish sentiment [3][20]. - **Stock Index**: The US stock market rose. The previous trading day's stock index rebounded. The 9 - month trend was more volatile, in the high - level consolidation stage, but the long - term strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just begun [4][11]. 3.2 Main News on the Day - **International News**: The Indian Minister of Commerce and Industry will visit the US to reach a "mutually beneficial" trade agreement, indicating a relaxation of tensions between the two countries [6]. - **Domestic News**: Since the implementation of the "9·24" package of policies, the "stability" foundation of China's capital market has been continuously consolidated, and the "vibrant" ecosystem has been accelerating. The number of new A - share accounts in August increased significantly [7]. - **Industry News**: The State Council's Food Safety Office is promoting the formulation of national standards for pre - made dishes and the explicit use of pre - made dishes in the catering industry [8]. 3.3 Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.45%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.15%, ICE 11 - sugar fell 2.04%, and other varieties showed different degrees of change [9]. 3.4 Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: Similar to the previous analysis, the short - term is in a high - level consolidation stage, and the long - term is in the strategic allocation period [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Bond prices rose slightly. The central bank carried out a 14 - day reverse repurchase operation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [13]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Night - session oil prices continued to fall. Iraq plans to resume oil exports, and the market is concerned about OPEC's production increase [14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell at night. The overall inventory of coastal methanol is rising, and it is expected to be short - term bearish [15]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber prices stopped falling and stabilized. Supply is expected to increase, and there is a possibility of a short - term rebound [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin prices fell. The market is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range [17][18]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures prices fell. The market is in the process of inventory digestion, and attention is paid to the consumption in autumn [19]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices reached a new high. The long - term driving force for gold is clear, and the bullish sentiment continues [20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell slightly at night. The market is affected by multiple factors and may fluctuate within a range [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell slightly at night. The supply may be in surplus in the short term, and prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Weekly production increased, inventory decreased, and prices may fluctuate in the short term [23][24]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The main contracts fluctuated in a narrow range, showing a high - level oscillating trend [25]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills have resumed production, and iron ore demand is supported. The market is expected to be oscillating and bullish [26]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is increasing, and the market supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is bullish, with hot - rolled coils stronger than rebar [27]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices fell significantly at night. The US soybean harvest pressure will gradually emerge, and bean meal is expected to be under pressure [28]. - **Fats and Oils**: Similar to the previous analysis, the short - term performance is weak [29][30]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are in a stage of inventory accumulation and are expected to be weak. Domestic sugar prices are supported by low inventory but are also affected by import pressure [31]. - **Cotton**: International cotton prices have limited upward momentum, and domestic cotton prices are also under pressure. The short - term is expected to be oscillating and weak [32]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fluctuated, and the spot freight rate accelerated its decline at the end of September. The decline rate may slow down after the National Day, and attention is paid to the shipping companies' price - cut rhythm [33].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil and fat market is in a bottom - grinding phase. It is advisable to consider seizing opportunities to buy in batches at low prices. For options, a strategy of selling put options during price pull - backs can be considered, while for arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [12][13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 22, 2025, the closing price of soybean oil 2601 was 8366, up 38; palm oil 2601 was 9360, up 44; and rapeseed oil 2601 was 10143, up 75. The basis of each variety in different regions showed different changes [3]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread of soybean oil was 288, up 12; palm oil was 206, up 4; and rapeseed oil was 505, up 5 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: For the 01 contract, the Y - P spread was (994), down 6; the OI - Y spread was 1777, up 37; the OI - P spread was 783, up 31; and the oil - meal ratio was 2.76, down 0.01 [3]. - **Import Profits**: The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was (67), and the disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was (470) [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 37th week of 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 125.1 million tons (unchanged from last week), palm oil was 64.2 million tons (up from last week), and rapeseed oil was 61.4 million tons (down from last week) [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From September 1 - 20, 2025, according to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 6.57% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.25% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 7.89% month - on - month [5]. - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of September 19, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 58.51 million tons, a decrease of 5.64 million tons from last week, a decline of 8.79%. China's palm oil imports in August were 34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%. After a rapid rise, palm oil has corrected. One can consider buying in batches at low prices during the correction [5]. - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3604 million tons, and the operating rate was 66.35%. As of September 19, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.2359 million tons, a decrease of 153,000 tons from last week, a decline of 1.22%. China's soybean oil imports in August were 10 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 113.9%. Currently, soybean oil supply is sufficient, and the price increase is weak. One can consider buying in batches at low prices [6]. - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 48,000 tons, and the operating rate was 12.79%. As of September 12, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 614,000 tons, a decrease of 29,100 tons from last week, a decline of 3.3%. China's rapeseed oil and mustard oil imports in August were 14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. The domestic rapeseed oil fundamentals have not changed much, and the inventory is gradually decreasing, which supports the price [8][10]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: Short - term, the oil and fat market is in a bottom - grinding phase. One can consider seizing opportunities to buy in batches at low prices [12]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see [13]. - **Options Strategy**: Consider selling put options during price pull - backs [14]. 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, as well as monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of different varieties [17][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic growth is slowing down, with drags from the real estate sector, weakening consumption support, and declining investment growth. However, policy - side counter - cyclical adjustments have been implemented, and the stock market remains strong while the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed has started a "preventive降息周期" [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, the upward risk of the US dollar may be higher than the downward risk. The exchange rate may oscillate around 7.10 in the short - term, and policy signals from the RMB central parity rate should be focused on [4]. - The stock index is expected to be volatile in the short - term due to the multi - empty game and the approaching holidays [6]. - Treasury bonds should focus on central bank dynamics. There may be opportunities for long - side intervention on dips [7]. - Precious metals are expected to run strongly as the Fed's monetary policy is in a loose cycle, and gold price will continue to rise [10]. - Copper prices may oscillate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton due to tight supply in the short - term and stable demand [15]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly, alumina may run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate strongly [17]. - Zinc is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern and is recommended to be under - weighted [20]. - Nickel and stainless steel are mainly affected by the macro - level, and the fundamentals provide no clear guidance [21]. - Tin prices may oscillate around 274,000 yuan per ton, with short - term supply remaining tight [23]. - Carbonate lithium prices are expected to oscillate between 72,000 - 76,000 yuan per ton before the National Day holiday [25]. - Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly during the dry season but are restricted by inventory. Polysilicon trading is complex, and high volatility requires cautious participation [28]. - Lead prices are expected to be cautiously bullish as the supply - demand contradiction lies in raw materials [29]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate before the holiday, with limited upward and downward space [30]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with support from replenishment and high molten iron production but limited upward space due to demand and high shipments [34]. - Coking coal and coke prices are supported by pre - holiday replenishment, but the rebound height is restricted by high steel inventory [35]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are supported by cost and term structure improvement, and trial long - positions are recommended [38]. - Crude oil is under fundamental pressure, and the medium - term trend is bearish, although geopolitical risks may cause short - term rebounds [40]. - LPG is expected to oscillate weakly as the overall driving force weakens [44]. - PTA - PX needs macro - level drivers to break through, and the polyester peak season is not highly expected [48]. - MEG is expected to oscillate between 4200 - 4400 yuan, and short - term downward space is limited [51]. - Methanol is recommended to reduce long - positions and hold short - put options [54]. - PP's downward space is limited, and attention should be paid to device changes and opportunities for long - positions on dips [57]. - PE is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern as the real - world situation is weak but the valuation is low [60]. - PVC is recommended to be observed temporarily due to the coexistence of weak fundamentals and macro - level expectations [62]. - Pure benzene is facing increasing surplus pressure, and its price is expected to be weakly volatile. Styrene is expected to oscillate, and the spread between pure benzene and styrene can be considered to be widened [64][66]. - Fuel oil's cracking is stabilizing, and short - term short - selling is not recommended. Low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and the short - term situation remains weak [67][69]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate weakly, with the possibility of a last - chance rise in the futures market during the demand peak season [71]. - Urea is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 yuan in the 01 contract, with support and suppression coexisting [73]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - **Market Information**: There were various events such as the China - US presidential phone call, policy announcements in China (e.g., Shanghai's property tax adjustment), and overseas events like the Fed's interest - rate decision, Japan's central bank actions, and geopolitical events [1]. - **Core Logic**: The macro - economy shows a complex situation with slowing growth and policy counter - cyclical adjustments. The stock and commodity markets are affected differently, and overseas, the Fed's policy path depends on employment and inflation [2]. 3.2 RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Performance**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar declined on Friday, with the central parity rate also being adjusted downwards [3]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed faces challenges in formulating monetary policy. The US dollar index may mainly trade based on the current situation, and the RMB exchange rate may oscillate around 7.10, with policy signals from the central parity rate being crucial [4]. 3.3 Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index was volatile with reduced trading volume last Friday, and the trading enthusiasm declined but sentiment improved [6]. - **Core Logic**: The market is in a multi - empty game. With the approaching holidays, the market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [6]. 3.4 Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: Treasury bonds rebounded last week but dropped significantly on Friday, and the money market was tight due to tax payments [7]. - **Core Logic**: The economic data in August showed downward pressure, but the market paid little attention. The bond market was less affected by the stock market. The market lacks a clear right - side signal, and attention should be paid to central bank dynamics [7]. 3.5 Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - **Market Performance**: London spot gold and silver continued to rise last week, with short - term adjustments after the Fed's interest - rate cut but strong rebounds on Friday [10]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed is in a monetary policy easing cycle, and gold prices will continue to rise. Attention should be paid to the Fed's policy expectations and relevant economic data [10]. 3.6 Copper - **Market Performance**: The main futures contract of Shanghai copper declined during the week, and inventories changed differently in different markets [13]. - **Core Logic**: The decline in copper prices was due to the Fed's interest - rate cut and Powell's speech. In the future, copper prices may oscillate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton due to tight supply and stable demand [15]. 3.7 Aluminum Industry Chain - **Market Performance**: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy showed different trends, and relevant trading volumes and positions also changed [16]. - **Core Logic**: For aluminum, after the interest - rate cut, the focus may shift to fundamentals, and prices may oscillate strongly. Alumina is in a state of supply surplus and may have a weak price trend. Cast aluminum alloy is supported by cost and may oscillate strongly [17]. 3.8 Zinc - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated slightly, and trading volume and positions changed [19]. - **Core Logic**: The zinc market is affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut and supply - demand fundamentals. Supply is in surplus, and demand is average. It is recommended to maintain an under - weighted position [20]. 3.9 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel declined, and relevant spot prices and inventories also changed [20]. - **Core Logic**: They are mainly affected by the macro - level, with limited fundamental adjustments. The future trend needs further observation [21]. 3.10 Tin - **Market Performance**: The main futures contract of Shanghai tin declined slightly during the week, and inventories increased [22]. - **Core Logic**: The decline was due to the Fed's interest - rate cut and Powell's speech. In the short - term, supply is tight, and prices may oscillate around 274,000 yuan per ton [23]. 3.11 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: The weighted index contract of carbonate lithium rose last week, with changes in trading volume, positions, and warehouse receipts [24]. - **Core Logic**: The lithium - battery industry chain performed well last week. With the expected increase in downstream demand, carbonate lithium prices may oscillate before the National Day [24][25]. 3.12 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The weighted futures contracts of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different trends, with changes in trading volume, positions, and warehouse receipts [26]. - **Core Logic**: Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly during the dry season but are restricted by inventory. Polysilicon trading is complex, and high volatility requires cautious participation [28]. 3.13 Lead - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated at a high level, and trading volume and positions changed [29]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut has little impact on lead prices. The supply - demand fundamentals are stable, and prices may rise cautiously [29]. 3.14 Black Metals 3.14.1 Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: Steel prices were strong, and there were price adjustments in billets [30]. - **Core Logic**: The supply of steel decreased, and demand improved slightly, but inventory was still at a high level. Before the holiday, steel prices are expected to oscillate with limited space [30]. 3.14.2 Iron Ore - **Core Logic**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the market may return to fundamental trading. Supply is abundant, demand is strong, and inventory is transferring from ports to steel mills. Prices are expected to oscillate [32][33]. 3.14.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: There were relevant geopolitical and policy - related events. - **Core Logic**: Downstream pre - holiday replenishment has started, and the market's sentiment is improving. However, high steel inventory restricts the rebound height of coking coal and coke prices [35]. 3.14.4 Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - **Market Performance**: The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese rose, and positions decreased [37]. - **Core Logic**: They are supported by cost and term - structure improvement. The long - term logic is related to the anti - involution expectation, and trial long - positions are recommended [38]. 3.15 Energy and Chemicals 3.15.1 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: International oil prices weakened, with declines in both WTI and Brent crude [40]. - **Core Logic**: The core contradiction is between fundamental pressure and geopolitical support. Fundamentals are bearish in the medium - term, while geopolitical events may cause short - term rebounds [40]. 3.15.2 LPG - **Market Performance**: LPG prices declined, and relevant spot prices also changed [42]. - **Core Logic**: The overall driving force is weakening, with supply increasing slightly and demand changing little [44]. 3.15.3 PTA - PX - **Market Performance**: The prices of PX and PTA were affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors [45]. - **Core Logic**: The polyester peak season is not highly expected, and macro - level drivers are needed for a breakthrough [48]. 3.15.4 MEG - Bottle Chip - **Market Performance**: The inventory of MEG increased, and the prices were affected by supply, demand, and cost factors [49]. - **Core Logic**: MEG is under pressure from inventory expectations but has limited downward space. It is expected to oscillate between 4200 - 4400 yuan [51]. 3.15.5 Methanol - **Market Performance**: The price of methanol changed, and the inventory situation was different in different regions [53]. - **Core Logic**: The main contradiction lies in the port, and it is recommended to reduce long - positions and hold short - put options [54]. 3.15.6 PP - **Market Performance**: The price of PP declined, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [55]. - **Core Logic**: The downstream demand recovery is less than expected, but the profit compression may trigger device shutdowns and a potential rebound [57]. 3.15.7 PE - **Market Performance**: The price of PE declined, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [58]. - **Core Logic**: The real - world situation is weak, but the low valuation limits the downward space, and an oscillatory pattern is expected [60]. 3.15.8 PVC - **Market Performance**: PVC prices were at a low level, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [61]. - **Core Logic**: The industry has weak fundamentals, but macro - level expectations make short - selling less attractive. It is recommended to observe temporarily [62]. 3.15.9 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Performance**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene declined, and their inventory situations changed [63][65]. - **Core Logic**: Pure benzene faces increasing surplus pressure, and styrene may oscillate. The spread between them can be considered to be widened [64][66]. 3.15.10 Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil changed, and their supply, demand, and inventory situations were different [67][68]. - **Core Logic**: Fuel oil's cracking is stabilizing, and short - term short - selling is not recommended. Low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and the short - term situation remains weak [67][69]. 3.15.11 Asphalt - **Market Performance**: The price of asphalt declined, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [70]. - **Core Logic**: Asphalt is expected to oscillate weakly, with the possibility of a last - chance rise in the futures market during the demand peak season [71]. 3.15.12 Urea - **Market Performance**: The price of urea declined, and its inventory situation changed [72]. - **Core Logic**: Urea is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 yuan in the 01 contract, with support and suppression coexisting [73].

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: September 19, 2025 [2] - Research analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review | Futures Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest Change | Special Price Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P2605 | 9258 | 9198 | 9212 | 9090 | 9108 | -150 | -1.62% | 44838 | 89682 | 3604 | | P2601 | 9494 | 9408 | 9428 | 9280 | 9304 | -190 | -2.00% | 627749 | 423179 | -12824 | | Y2605 | 8132 | 8090 | 8114 | 8000 | 8022 | -110 | -1.35% | 48401 | 223676 | -982 | | Y2601 | 8422 | 8352 | 8366 | 8262 | 8284 | -138 | -1.64% | -348953 | 574844 | -13601 | | OI2605 | 9572 | 9533 | 9541 | 9462 | - | -0.80% | 14529 | 47029 | 806 | | OI2601 | 10055 | 9991 | 10010 | 9926 | 9984 | - | -0.71% | 266924 | 326231 | -10512 | [7] Basis Price Information - East China Grade 3 rapeseed oil: September - October: OI2601 + 220; November - December: OI2601 + 230 - East China Grade 1 rapeseed oil: September: OI2601 + 310; October: OI2601 + 330 - East China Grade 1 soybean oil basis price: Spot: Y2601 + 150; October: Y2601 + 160; October - January: Y2601 + 190; February - May: Y2601 + 130; April - July: Y2605 + 200 - East China 24 - degree palm oil liquid oil distribution quote basis: September: P2601 - 50; October: P2601 + 0; October - November: P2601 + 50 [7] Core View - Bullish funds left the market, and the oil and fat market continued to decline. The negative factors mainly came from the external market. The EPA proposed a supplementary rule for the renewable fuel standard to solve the exemption problem of small refineries, but it was not finalized, disappointing the market. Also, the harvest of US soybeans and Canadian rapeseed was approaching, and the harvest pressure and uncertain demand prospects under the trade - war background weighed on the market. Near - term rapeseed oil continued the de - stocking trend, with relatively concentrated supply, and traders mainly tried to sell at higher prices, leading to a continuous increase in the basis price. Attention should be paid to the China - Canada trade situation and the supply of rapeseed raw materials. Recently, the oil and fat market faced pressure on the upside but also had support on the downside. Wait for the technical correction to end. In the long - and medium - term, the oil and fat market is bullish due to the favorable biodiesel policy [8] Group 3: Industry News - According to the data released by shipping surveyor ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 15 were 742,648 tons, a 2.5% increase compared to 724,191 tons in the same period of August. Exports to China were 11,000 tons, a significant increase from 8,800 tons in the previous month. - According to the data from the Southern Palm Oil Millers Association of Malaysia (SPPOMA), Malaysia's palm oil production from September 1 - 15 decreased by 8.05% month - on - month. The fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area decreased by 6.94% month - on - month, and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreased by 0.21% month - on - month. - According to the data released by shipping surveyor SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 15 were 404,688 tons, a 24.7% decrease compared to 537,183 tons in the same period of August. Exports to China were 34,000 tons, higher than 14,000 tons in the previous month. [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts, such as the spot price of East China Grade 3 rapeseed oil, East China Grade 4 soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis change, soybean oil basis change, rapeseed oil basis change, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13][21]