Market Overview - A-shares rose across the board in the afternoon session, with the Shanghai Composite Index up nearly 1% at one point, closing at 3381.58 points, a gain of 0.65% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.43% to 10048.39 points, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.39% to 2017.63 points [1] - The Northbound trading saw a strong performance with the Northbound 50 Index up 1.54%, and total trading volume across the three exchanges reached 1.1471 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 55 billion yuan from the previous day [1] Sector Performance Oil Sector - The oil sector continued its strong performance, with stocks like Maohua Shihua hitting the limit up for three consecutive days, and Zhun Oil shares achieving six limit-ups in seven days [3][4] - Other notable performers included Taishan Petroleum and Beiken Energy, both of which saw gains exceeding 7% [3] - The geopolitical situation, particularly the U.S. attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, is expected to drive oil prices significantly higher, with Brent crude futures projected to break $80 per barrel [5] Shipping Sector - The shipping sector also experienced a surge, with stocks like Ningbo Shipping and Baoshui Technology hitting the limit up, and several others including Lianyungang and Ningbo Ocean also reaching their daily limits [5] - The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global oil trade passes, has heightened concerns about potential disruptions due to geopolitical tensions [6] Cross-Border Payment Sector - The cross-border payment sector saw strong gains, with stocks like Sifang Precision and Ubo Xun hitting the limit up, and Lakala rising by approximately 13% [8][9] - The launch of the cross-border payment system between mainland China and Hong Kong is expected to enhance payment efficiency and service levels, with significant growth projected in the global cross-border payment market [10] Cobalt Sector - The cobalt sector showed significant activity, with stocks like Tengyuan Cobalt rising over 15%, and others like China Ruilin and Hanrui Cobalt also seeing substantial gains [12] - The extension of the cobalt export ban by the Democratic Republic of the Congo is anticipated to create supply shortages and drive prices higher, with expectations of a second wave of price increases in the cobalt market [14]

Market Overview - The stock indices showed narrow fluctuations in the morning and surged in the afternoon, with the North Securities 50 Index rising over 1% and more than 4,400 stocks gaining [1] - By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.65% to 3,381.58 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.43% to 10,048.39 points, and the ChiNext Index climbed by 0.39% to 2,017.63 points [1] - The North Securities 50 Index saw a gain of 1.54%, with a total trading volume of 1,147.1 billion yuan across the three markets [1] Sector Performance - The oil sector showed strong performance, while logistics, chemicals, semiconductors, non-ferrous metals, coal, pharmaceuticals, and brokerage sectors also experienced gains [1] - Emerging themes such as digital currency, cross-border payments, shipping concepts, and solid-state battery concepts were active [1] Economic Outlook - External uncertainties and insufficient domestic demand remain challenges for the second half of the year, but sustained policy efforts are expected to showcase strong resilience in the domestic economy [1] - With the expansion of equity public funds, the influx of medium to long-term capital, and supportive policy tools, the A-share market is likely to maintain a stable and improving trend [1] - Current A-share valuations are at a historical medium level and are relatively low compared to mature overseas markets, indicating a higher investment cost-performance ratio [1] - Overall, the A-share market is anticipated to exhibit a trend of oscillating upward by the second half of 2025 [1] Structural Investment Opportunities - Safe assets with low valuations and high dividend characteristics align with the medium to long-term capital allocation needs, providing both safety margins and yield certainty in an uncertain external environment and low-interest rate context [2] - The theme of technological innovation is crucial for accelerating the cultivation of endogenous growth momentum and should be monitored for breakthroughs in industrial trends [2] - The large consumption sector is showing bright domestic consumption data under policy support, with new consumption trends emerging, particularly in pet economy, IP economy, and domestic beauty and personal care [2] - Mergers and acquisitions in sci-tech enterprises, central state-owned enterprises, and traditional industries are also a focus area [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [37]. Core Insights - The non-bank financial index experienced a decline of 1.1% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.6 percentage points. The securities index fell by 1.7%, while the insurance index rose by 0.3% [4][8]. - The average daily trading volume of stock funds was 14,638 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.3% week-on-week. The margin financing balance was 1.81 trillion yuan, down 0.2% from the previous week [4][17]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced reforms to the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, which includes the introduction of a new growth tier to better serve technology companies with significant breakthroughs and high R&D investments [4][32]. - The CSRC is seeking public opinion on the revised "Securities Company Classification Evaluation Regulations," which aims to enhance the evaluation framework and promote high-quality development in the industry [4][32]. - The insurance sector is seeing increased regulatory scrutiny on participating insurance products, which is expected to alleviate concerns over interest spread losses [4][32]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.5%, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.2%. The CSI 300 also decreased by 0.5%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 1.7% [8][9]. Market Data Tracking - The average daily trading volume of stock funds was 14,638 billion yuan, down 11.3% week-on-week. The margin financing balance was 1.81 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.2% [17]. Industry News - The CSRC published guidelines for establishing a growth tier on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, aimed at enhancing the adaptability of the system for quality technology companies [32]. - The CSRC is soliciting opinions on the revised "Securities Company Classification Evaluation Regulations," which focus on promoting high-quality development and encouraging differentiated operations among smaller institutions [32]. - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) has initiated assessments for international active insurance groups, recognizing China Reinsurance (Group) Company as an international active insurance group [32].

除了新消费和创新药，上周我们还对券商进行了分析。券商存在两种走势：一 种是直接调整；另一种是由于 618 陆家嘴金融会议可能出台重磅金融政策，有 资金提前布局博弈题材，因此券商有可能继续上涨。如果券商上涨，将带动上 证指数挑战 5 月 14 日高点 3,417 点。这两种情况分别标识为橙色和蓝色走势。 如果券商打不起来，再加上医药和新消费走弱，大盘可能直接进入调整。 廖市无双：4 月以来的反弹结束了吗？20250622 美国介入以色列与伊朗冲突对全球资本市场有什么影响？ 摘要 新消费板块前期涨幅较大后显疲态，已形成五浪结构，面临调整压力。 黄金饰品等龙头股走弱，港股相关标的也出现回调，建议投资者保持谨 慎。 创新药板块技术指标显示调整信号，中证创新药指数和港股创新药指数 均出现顶背离迹象，预示日线级别四浪整理需求。短期内不宜盲目追高。 券商板块存在两种走势可能：直接调整或受陆家嘴金融会议政策预期影 响上涨，带动上证指数挑战 3,417 点。券商表现将影响大盘走向，值得 密切关注。 近期市场受中东地缘政治冲突影响，风险偏好下降，上证 50 和沪深 300 小幅下跌，其他指数跌幅较大。银行板块表现较强，对市场起到 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on industries with marginal structural changes as the earnings forecast period approaches, suggesting that sectors with inventory depletion and contract liabilities are likely to see performance improvements [4] - The North American AI hardware supply chain is highlighted as a preferred investment area, along with sectors expected to report good earnings and reasonable valuations such as wind power, gaming, and pet industries [1][3] - The article discusses the potential for a rebound in the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in electric vehicles, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption sectors, despite recent weakness due to liquidity tightening and increased share placements [1][3] Group 2 - The article notes that external risks, such as the potential for tariffs from the U.S. and the impact of tax legislation, could negatively affect non-U.S. markets [2] - It suggests that the trend of the U.S. dollar depreciating may benefit Chinese assets, with the Hong Kong market expected to see increased liquidity and investment opportunities as a result [5][6] - The article indicates that the A-share market is likely to experience a volatile upward trend in the second half of the year, supported by policy measures and the expansion of equity funds [8] Group 3 - The article highlights the importance of structural investment opportunities, particularly in sectors that are experiencing growth due to economic transformation and rising consumer income [9] - It suggests that the A-share market is currently in a phase of consolidation, with external uncertainties and domestic demand issues impacting performance [10][13] - The article recommends focusing on defensive assets and sectors with high dividend yields, as well as technology and consumer sectors that are expected to benefit from policy support [8][12]

Macro Insights - Stablecoins are not absolutely stable in value; they are subject to technical de-pegging risks and fluctuations in the underlying assets [1] - Not all fiat currencies can support the issuance of stablecoins; the development of stablecoins depends on the acceptance and trust in the underlying fiat currency [1] - The rapid development of USD stablecoins does not weaken the credibility of the USD; instead, it enhances the USD's role and functionality [1] - USD stablecoins provide limited relief to the US short-term debt market, with the Federal Reserve remaining the primary influencer of the overall debt market [2] - The emergence of USD stablecoins does not significantly increase the supply of USD; the Federal Reserve retains control over total USD liquidity [2] - Stablecoins support the RWA market primarily at the transaction level, with the development of RWA ultimately dependent on the quality of underlying assets [2] Market Strategy - The Chinese stock market is expected to continue its upward trend despite recent adjustments, driven by emerging opportunities in new technologies and consumption [4] - The potential for a trend of USD depreciation is increasing, which may benefit Chinese assets, particularly in the context of capital flow and asset pricing [5] - The focus on AI trends in the technology sector is emphasized, alongside recommendations for cyclical industries and high-dividend financial stocks [6] AH Premium Analysis - The historical AH premium has been trending downward, influenced by differences in market structure, liquidity, and industry concentration between A-shares and H-shares [8] - Recent changes indicate a narrowing of the AH premium, with some H-shares trading at a premium compared to their A-share counterparts [9] Commodity Insights - The lithium and cobalt sectors are under scrutiny, with current market conditions showing weak demand and price pressures [11][12] - The cobalt market is experiencing a downturn, with reduced purchasing activity and potential policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo that could impact prices [13]

业 及 产 业 非银金融 2025 年 06 月 22 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 冉兆邦 A0230524090003 ranzb@swsresearch.com 研究支持 金黎丹 A0230123060002 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 罗钻辉 (8621)23297818× luozh@swsresearch.com 继续看好非银板块！ 看好 ——非银金融行业周报（2025/6/16-2025/6/22） 本期投资提示： 行 ⚫ 保险：本周申万保险 II 指数收涨 0.27%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.73pct。板块兼具基本面 及资金面催化。Q2 业绩基数压力有限，在 Q3 预定利率调降 50bps 预期及一季度多数机 构新单承压态势下，预计负债端增速有望改善，新增负债成本有望迎来进一步下调；同 时，一季度长端利率阶段性提升带来的 FVTPL 债券公允价值下行压力有望在 Q2 消减。 公募新 ...

Group 1 - China Galaxy Securities predicts that the overall A-share market will show a震荡向上的行情特征 in the second half of the year, with current valuations at a historical medium level and lower than overseas mature markets, indicating high investment cost-effectiveness [1] - The firm emphasizes that policy support for long-term capital entering the market and the expansion of equity public funds will likely maintain a stable and improving capital environment for A-shares [1] - The focus on technology innovation as a core driver for new supply-side reforms in A-shares is highlighted, with specific attention to sectors like AI computing, AI applications, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities characterizes the upcoming mid-term report season as having a risk preference decline and weak fundamentals, suggesting a focus on the North American AI hardware supply chain despite recent pullbacks [2] - The firm identifies sectors with strong mid-term report performance certainty, including wind power, gaming, and rare metals, while also noting that some segments in new energy have reached reasonable valuation levels [2] - Recommendations include considering banks that continue to attract capital inflows as a relatively stable investment choice [2] Group 3 - Huajin Securities advises focusing on valuation cost-effectiveness and balancing investments between technology growth and undervalued blue-chip stocks, given the positive domestic policies and liquidity conditions [3] - The firm points out that sectors like media, automotive, and power equipment have low transaction volumes and turnover rates, indicating potential for sentiment recovery [3] - Short-term focus is suggested on industries supported by policies and trends, such as new energy vehicles and financial services [3] Group 4 - Hua'an Securities maintains a positive outlook for the second half of the year on high-dividend sectors like banking and insurance, as well as industries represented by new metal materials [4] - The firm notes that while loose liquidity supports the market, slow internal growth recovery and policy considerations may limit rapid upward movement [4] - The overall A-share profit forecast indicates a trend of improvement starting from Q4 2024, which could be a significant factor for market upward breakthroughs [4]

Index Level - The Shanghai Composite Index is still in a downward adjustment phase, with support around the gap at 3320 [3][4] - The ChiNext Index has fallen below its short-term moving averages, indicating potential weakness [3] - Overall market sentiment is low, with a trading volume of only 1.06 trillion, down by 185.7 billion, and a net sell-off of nearly 30 billion by domestic investors [3][4] Market Conclusion - The market is expected to continue its adjustment, and any potential rebounds should be viewed as temporary [4] - Investors should avoid chasing prices and consider maintaining around 50% of their positions [4] Sector Analysis - The banking and insurance sectors are showing strength, while brokerage firms are underperforming [5] - Consumer sectors like liquor are experiencing a rebound, but sustainability is uncertain [6] - The solid-state battery sector remains active, while some technology stocks are showing strength [5] Banking Sector Insights - The rise in bank stocks is attributed to a lack of alternative investment options, with banks offering around 4% dividend yields [7] - Investors are advised to hold existing positions in banks or cautiously enter with a portion of their capital [7] Hot Sector Breakdown - CPO is in a corrective phase but maintains an upward trend, presenting potential buying opportunities [7] - PCB shows a similar upward trend despite recent fluctuations, indicating potential for speculative opportunities [7] - The storage chip sector is in a consolidation phase, requiring further observation for potential upward movements [7] Additional Sector Observations - The innovative drug sector is in its sixth day of adjustment, with a downward trend persisting [8] - Stablecoins and digital currencies are showing signs of trend reversal, necessitating caution if they break below key support levels [8] - The solid-state battery sector is experiencing a slowdown in momentum, but short-term trading opportunities may still exist [8]

Group 1 - The financial industry is experiencing significant salary cuts and layoffs, with executive compensation at major banks like Minsheng, CMB, and Ping An decreasing by 36.65%, 36.83%, and 42.07% respectively [1][10] - In 2024, 33 out of 42 A-share listed banks reported a decline in total management compensation, with Changsha Bank experiencing the highest drop of 82.4% [1] - The four major state-owned banks are set to lay off a total of 67,000 employees in 2024, with other banks like Ping An and SPDB also participating in layoffs [1][2] Group 2 - The brokerage industry is also undergoing large-scale layoffs, with over 10,000 employees reduced in the first half of 2024 [3] - Many banks and fund companies are implementing performance pay clawbacks, which aim to recover bonuses from executives whose actions have led to financial losses [4][6] - For example, CMB clawed back performance pay from 4,415 individuals amounting to 43.29 million yuan in 2023, compared to 5.824 million yuan from 2,876 individuals in 2022 [8] Group 3 - The primary reason for the widespread salary cuts in the financial sector is a decline in performance, with 13 out of 22 A-share listed banks reporting negative revenue growth [10] - Factors contributing to this decline include reduced net interest margins and a downturn in the real estate sector [10][11] - The government is pushing for a reduction in the income disparity between the financial sector and the real economy, as financial sector salaries have been disproportionately high compared to other industries [13][15] Group 4 - The financial industry has been criticized for being a breeding ground for monopolistic privileges and corruption, with salary reductions seen as part of a broader anti-corruption effort [17] - The average annual salary in the financial sector is significantly higher than in manufacturing and other industries, with financial employees earning an average of 330,400 yuan, which is 2.35 times that of manufacturing [13][14] - The disparity in income has led to public discontent, especially as many ordinary workers earn significantly less [21][22] Group 5 - The average salary for employees at CMB has decreased from 625,000 yuan in 2022 to 604,000 yuan in 2023, reflecting a trend of declining compensation in the sector [20][19] - Despite the reductions, the salaries in the financial sector remain high compared to other industries, leading to a perception of inequality among the general workforce [24][25] - The financial sector's profitability has been called into question, with discussions ongoing about whether the high salaries are justified by the value created [28][30]