Overall Market Outlook - The domestic tourism market is expected to perform well in 2026, with a projected increase of approximately 5% in domestic travel volume and 6% in total spending during the New Year holiday compared to 2024 [1] - The recovery trend remains K-shaped, with a low base effect for mid-tier consumer leaders and a shift from pilot exploration to large-scale replication in outbound demand [1] Domestic Travel Performance - During the New Year holiday, 142 million domestic trips were made, representing a 5.2% increase from 2024, with total spending reaching 84.789 billion yuan, up 6.3% [1] - The average spending per person increased by 1.1% compared to 2024, driven by a rich supply of winter tourism options [1] - The total inter-regional movement of people was estimated at 590 million, with a daily average of 198 million, marking a 19.5% year-on-year increase [1] Duty-Free Sales - Duty-free sales during the New Year holiday saw a significant increase, with 442,000 items sold, a 52.4% year-on-year growth, and total shopping amounts reaching 712 million yuan, up 128.9% [2] - The number of shoppers increased by 60.6% compared to the previous year, indicating strong recovery post-border closure [2] Scenic Spots Performance - Major scenic spots showed strong performance, with Songcheng performing 67 shows, a 52.3% increase from 2024, and Huangshan receiving over 75,000 visitors, up 76.5% [3] - Emei Mountain and Jiuhua Mountain also reported significant increases in visitor numbers, with growth rates of 20.9% and approximately 30% respectively [3] Online Travel Agency (OTA) Trends - The "please take 3 days off for 8 days" trend boosted long-distance travel demand, with significant increases in flight and hotel bookings [4] - High-quality hotels and boutique accommodations saw a notable rise in bookings, with domestic hotel reservations increasing by 280% on January 1 [4] Hotel Industry Insights - The average daily rate (ADR) for hotels during the New Year holiday was 204.3 yuan, a 13.8% increase from 2025, although still lower than 2024 [6] - The occupancy rate for hotels was 59.4%, showing a 2.9 percentage point increase from 2025 [6] Restaurant Sector Activity - Restaurant consumption was vibrant, with a 142% increase in traffic for the "must-eat" list during the New Year holiday [7] - Major cities reported significant growth in restaurant sales, with Beijing's dining sector up 4.6% and Guangzhou's up 18.9% year-on-year [7]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the domestic service consumption has increased to 47% of total consumption, entering a phase of rapid growth and becoming a major component of household spending. The long-term stability and focus of policies on service consumption have been emphasized, highlighting its growing importance in policy frameworks. The current valuation of the social service sector remains below the average of the past five years, indicating potential for recovery [9][8]. Market Review - On the last trading day of 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.09% to close at 3968.84 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.58% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.23%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.05 trillion yuan. In terms of industry performance, sectors such as defense, media, and real estate led the gains, while communication, agriculture, and electronics lagged behind. Concept stocks related to Xiaohongshu, Kuaishou, and China Shipbuilding saw increases, whereas sectors like silicon energy and liquid cooling servers experienced declines [6][2]. Important News - The State Council has set a target for the comprehensive utilization of major solid waste to reach 4.5 billion tons annually by 2030, with a focus on recycling 510 million tons of major renewable resources. The plan emphasizes the elimination of outdated production capacity and the prohibition of new mining projects without supporting waste disposal facilities [7][3]. - Ctrip's report indicates a strong start for the domestic tourism market in 2026, with a fourfold increase in ticket bookings compared to the previous year. The report highlights that the post-00s generation represents the largest demographic of travelers at 39%, followed by the post-90s at 33% [7][3]. Industry Insights - The travel chain sector is expected to see marginal improvements due to the introduction of the Spring and Autumn holiday system, which will extend consumption periods and accelerate travel demand [11]. - The duty-free market at airports is undergoing significant changes, with the introduction of international retailers and investment in airport equity expected to revitalize the market. The policy benefits and the effects of duty-free shopping are anticipated to stimulate consumer interest [11]. - The restaurant industry is experiencing accelerated chain development, with leading companies expanding rapidly through standardized operations and brand recognition. The industry is expected to undergo a significant consolidation phase, with regional brands expanding nationally [11]. - Emerging consumption trends include service platforms that enhance user engagement and efficiency, concert experiences that cater to younger audiences, and sports events that leverage star athletes and strong operational models to create a sustainable ecosystem [11].

Core Insights - The tourism market is expected to see a strong start in 2026, with domestic travel during the New Year holiday projected to increase by approximately 5% in terms of the number of trips and 6% in total spending compared to the 2024 New Year holiday [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Domestic tourism performance aligns with expectations, while inbound and outbound travel numbers have exceeded forecasts [1] - Duty-free sales have shown significant growth, with offshore duty-free sales increasing by about 50% compared to the 2024 New Year holiday [1] - Hotel occupancy rates have improved, although prices still show a gap compared to 2024 [1] Group 2: Sector Highlights - Scenic spots have generally performed well, with prominent mountainous scenic areas standing out [1] - The upcoming Spring Festival, with a 9-day holiday, is expected to further enhance travel enthusiasm, indicating a positive outlook for the tourism market [1]

Group 1 - The chief strategist of Guojin Securities, Miao Yiling, predicts that the ROE of the non-financial real estate sector in A-shares will increase from 7.2% to 7.9% by 2026, indicating a shift from a "low return" phase to a higher profitability rhythm [1] - Miao suggests four main investment lines: industrial resource products, equipment exports, consumer recovery, and non-bank financials, with a focus on tracking the demand for aluminum, copper, steel, and coal driven by power system construction [1] - In overseas markets, the U.S. and Europe are experiencing characteristics such as "investment exceeding consumption," profit differentiation among large and small enterprises, declining employment, and slowing wage growth, which provide a foundation for a sustained interest rate cut cycle [1] Group 2 - On the domestic consumption front, the drag of housing prices on household spending has diminished, with an increase in foreign tourists due to trade settlement rate recovery and visa-free entry, leading to improved net profit margins in sectors like aviation, hotels, duty-free, and food and beverage [2] - Financially, there is a shift of household savings towards "fixed income+" products, with pension and insurance funds continuously increasing their equity allocations; policy adjustments to lower insurance risk factors and relax brokerage leverage will resonate with the non-bank sector and ROE recovery [2]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 04 日 [Table_Title] 元旦出行稳健增长，离岛免税持续亮眼 投资建议 展望 26 年，我们建议关注高景气成长赛道以及政策、科技加 持下服务业景气拐点赛道，具体包括：（1）服务消费迎来政 策及行业新需求共振，有望驱动行业拐点，包括免税、银发 旅游、育儿消费等。受益标的包括中国中免、华住酒店、锦 江酒店、首旅酒店、三峡旅游、君亭酒店、孩子王、海底 捞、百胜中国、长白山等。（2）新消费拥有需求长逻辑，景 气度有望维持，当前行业龙头估值处于相对低位，26 年仍然 拥有足够弹性，包括潮玩、茶饮、时尚黄金珠宝、保健品 等。受益标的包括泡泡玛特、名创优品、潮宏基、老铺黄 金、若羽臣、古茗、蜜雪集团等。（3）零售业态创新+出海打 开新成长空间，受益标的包括小商品城、赛维时代等。（4） AI+应用 26 年有望迎来百花齐放，从主题到商业化变现加 速，受益标的包括焦点科技、豆神教育、青木科技、科锐国 际、米奥会展等。 风险提示 宏观经济下行，居民收入及消费意愿恢复不及预期，行业竞 争加剧。 [Table_Title2] 社服零售行业周报 ...

Cross-Border Trade - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, has initiated policies to promote cross-border trade facilitation, emphasizing its importance in creating a top-tier business environment [1] - Cross-border trade is expected to transition from "scale expansion" to "high-quality development," with an anticipated annual growth rate of over 15% from 2026 to 2030 [1] Low Altitude Economy - The E40H unmanned aerial vehicle system from Yufeng Future has received a type certificate from the Civil Aviation Administration of China, marking a significant milestone in the low-altitude economy [2] - The low-altitude economy is projected to reach a market size of 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025 and over 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035, driven by advancements in various sectors [2][6] Semiconductor Industry - Domestic semiconductor companies are increasingly disclosing major merger and acquisition plans, indicating a rapid acceleration in industry consolidation [3] - Key mergers include SMIC's acquisition of a 49% stake in Northern Semiconductor for 40.6 billion yuan, reflecting a strategic intent to enhance core competitiveness [3][4] Oil and Gas - A recent military conflict in Venezuela has led to a complete halt of the country's oil exports, significantly impacting global heavy crude oil supply and increasing oil price pressures [4][5] - The situation has raised concerns over energy supply security, with shipping risks in the Caribbean further exacerbating the issue [5] Commercial Aerospace - The commercial space sector in China is experiencing robust growth, with multiple rocket launches planned for 2025, contributing to the country's ambitions in space exploration [5][6] - The satellite internet market, leveraging low Earth orbit satellites, is becoming a focal point for global competition, with over 70,000 low Earth orbit satellite applications expected by the end of 2024 [6] Duty-Free Market - The Hainan duty-free market saw significant growth during the New Year holiday, with sales reaching 712 million yuan, a 128.9% increase year-on-year [7][8] - The zero-tariff policy has expanded significantly, now covering 6,600 product categories, which is expected to have a substantial impact on the local and national duty-free business [8] Nuclear Fusion - The EAST nuclear fusion experiment has confirmed the existence of a density-free zone, providing critical insights for high-density operation in magnetic confinement fusion devices [8][9] - The Chinese government is prioritizing nuclear fusion as a new economic growth point, with significant investments expected in the coming years [9] Brain-Computer Interface - Neuralink plans to start mass production of brain-computer interface devices in 2026, with advancements in automated surgical processes [10] - The industry is gaining traction with supportive policies from the government, indicating a growing interest in applications for movement disorders and mental health [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a strong start for the tourism market in 2026, with significant increases in domestic travel and duty-free shopping during the New Year holiday [1][2]. Group 2 - During the 2026 New Year holiday, domestic travel reached 142 million trips, a 5.19% increase compared to 2024, with total spending of 84.789 billion yuan, up 6.35% [1]. - The average spending per person was 597.1 yuan, reflecting a 1.1% increase from 2024 [1]. - Duty-free shopping in Hainan saw remarkable growth, with sales of 307,000 items from January 1 to 2, 2026, marking a 48.3% year-on-year increase, and total shopping amounts reaching 505 million yuan, up 121.5% [1]. - On January 2, 2026, sales continued to rise, with 159,000 items sold, a 70.6% increase, and shopping amounts of 254 million yuan, up 156.6% [1]. Group 3 - The total cross-regional movement of people in the society was estimated at 590 million trips from January 1 to 3, 2026, a 19.5% increase year-on-year [2]. - Railway passenger volume was projected at 48.223 million trips, a 53.1% increase, while road travel was expected to reach 540 million trips, up 15.5% [2]. - Waterway passenger volume was estimated at 2.29 million trips, a 35.3% increase, and civil aviation passenger volume was projected at 5.881 million trips, up 10.49% [2].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant recovery in domestic tourism during the 2026 New Year holiday, with 142 million domestic trips, a 5.2% increase compared to the 2024 New Year holiday, and reaching 115% of the 2019 level [6][14] - Total domestic travel expenditure reached 84.789 billion yuan, up 6.3% from the 2024 New Year holiday, recovering to 112% of the 2019 level [6][14] - The average spending per person was 597 yuan, a 1.1% increase from the 2024 New Year holiday, recovering to 97% of the 2019 level [6][14] - There was a notable increase in passenger transport volume, with significant growth in waterway and highway transport [14] - Scenic spots such as Huangshan, Changbai Mountain, and Danxia Mountain saw substantial visitor increases, with ticket bookings for domestic scenic spots increasing over four times year-on-year [16] - Duty-free sales in Hainan experienced rapid growth, with 442,000 items sold, a 52.4% increase, and shopping revenue reaching 712 million yuan, up 128.9% [22] - Cross-border travel demand surged, with 6.615 million people entering and exiting the country, a 28.6% increase [26] - Retail sales in key business districts showed strong consumer vitality, with total sales reaching 4.04 billion yuan, a 16.3% year-on-year increase [34] Summary by Sections Domestic Tourism - Domestic travel during the 2026 New Year holiday reached 142 million trips, a 5.2% increase from 2024, and 115% of the 2019 level [6] - Total expenditure was 84.789 billion yuan, a 6.3% increase from 2024, recovering to 112% of the 2019 level [6] Scenic Spots - Significant visitor growth at scenic spots, with Huangshan, Changbai Mountain, and Danxia Mountain seeing increases of 76%, 66%, and 81% respectively compared to 2024 [16][18] Duty-Free - Hainan's duty-free sales reached 712 million yuan, a 128.9% increase, with 442,000 items sold, reflecting a 52.4% growth [22] Cross-Border Travel - Cross-border travel reached 6.615 million people, a 28.6% increase compared to the previous year [26] Retail - Retail sales in Beijing's key business districts totaled 4.04 billion yuan, with a 16.3% year-on-year increase [34] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the travel chain, including hotels (e.g., Shoulv Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel), scenic spots (e.g., Three Gorges Tourism, Huangshan Tourism), and OTA (e.g., Ctrip Group) [35] - In the retail sector, it recommends focusing on duty-free (e.g., China Duty Free Group, Wangfujing) and retail department stores (e.g., Chongqing Department Store, He Bai Group) [35]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the social services industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [3]. Core Insights - The tourism market is showing a strong start in 2026, with expectations for continued growth as the Spring Festival approaches. The report highlights several recommended stocks in the OTA, hotel, and scenic area sectors [4]. - There is a significant increase in duty-free sales in Hainan, driven by the appreciation of the RMB, with a recommendation for China Duty Free Group [4]. - The report notes a substantial rise in domestic travel during the New Year holiday, with 142 million trips taken, reflecting a 5.19% increase compared to 2024 [4]. Summary by Sections Tourism Market - The report indicates that 142 million domestic trips were made during the New Year holiday, with total spending reaching 84.789 billion yuan, a 6.35% increase from 2024. The average spending per trip was 597.1 yuan, up by 1.1% [4]. - Recommended stocks in the OTA sector include Trip.com Group and Tongcheng Travel, while hotel recommendations include Huazhu Group, Jinjiang Hotels, and ShouLai Hotels [4]. Duty-Free Sales - Duty-free shopping in Hainan saw a remarkable increase, with sales of 307,000 items from January 1 to 2, 2026, marking a 48.3% year-on-year growth. The number of shoppers reached 65,000, up 60.9%, and total spending was 505 million yuan, a 121.5% increase [4]. Transportation - The report highlights that from January 1 to 3, 2026, the total inter-regional passenger flow is expected to reach 590 million, averaging 198 million per day, a 19.5% increase year-on-year. Railway passenger volume is projected at 48.223 million, with a 53.1% increase [4].

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to experience a higher probability of upward fluctuations after the start of the year, driven by a low funding heat at the end of last year and a market sentiment that is eager for growth [2] - Key sectors for investment include materials, overseas computing power, and semiconductors, with a focus on high-quality real estate developers and industries related to travel services such as duty-free and aviation [2] - Mid-term preferences lean towards sectors with lower heat and concentration but increasing attention and catalysts, such as chemicals, engineering machinery, power equipment, and new energy [2] Group 2 - The spring market is likely to gradually start, with a favorable liquidity environment expected before the Spring Festival, although some volatility may occur in January [3] - Institutional funds, including insurance and private equity, are expected to have strong replenishment motivation, focusing on themes with strong industrial trends or multiple catalysts [3] - The spring market may require verification of economic data to confirm continued acceleration [3] Group 3 - Consumption and growth are anticipated to be the two main lines of the spring market, with a focus on sectors such as electronics, power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and automobiles in January [4] - If the market style leans towards growth, top-rated sectors include electronics, power equipment, communications, non-ferrous metals, automobiles, and defense [4] - In a defensive market style, top-rated sectors include non-bank financials, electronics, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, automobiles, and transportation [4] Group 4 - The mid-term trend remains upward, with a strong consensus on the dual mainline thinking of technology and cycles, focusing on assets in trend [5] - In the technology sector, priority should be given to AI computing power, energy storage, and storage chips, while in the cyclical sector, attention should be on directions that validate price increases [5] - Short-term participation should focus on industrial catalysts, with domestic emphasis on commercial aerospace and software innovation [5] Group 5 - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to remain active and trend upward due to multiple positive factors [6] - The technology sector is seen as a long-term investment mainline, benefiting from price increases and mergers and acquisitions [6] - The consumption sector is expected to benefit from policy support, with current valuations at relatively low levels, indicating significant long-term upside potential [6]