文 | 赵伟、屠强、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人| 屠强 摘要 沉星月启：产业" 蜕变"vs政策 "革新"。 转型进入"新阶段"，面临的"新问题"。 2022年以来，转型进入"新阶段"，以地产为代表的传统链条对经济的贡献 出现趋势性下行，经济指标表现分化的同时，产业"冰火两重天"的情况常见。转型"新阶段"，压力更集中在终端 需求，导致PPI承压的同时CPI表现更弱，产能过剩领域转至中下游；更多供给转向海外的过程中，外贸板块内卷 更甚。 转型新阶段，传统政策框架有效性下降，政策"革新"全面启动。 居、企业和地方政府在经历报表冲击的同时，不 同主体间互相影响、修复过程慢于过往周期。传统宏观调控手段的传导机制异化，政策"革新"必要性上升。2024 年9月底以来，政策框架全面优化启动；总量政策空间打开、结构性政策的针对性增强，新阶段的"供给侧改革"呼 之欲出。 产业"蜕变"已成"星火燎原"之势，居民信心筑底现象已现。 历经十余年，新动能占比已"初具规模"，高技术产业 在工业中占比达16.3%，渐成星火燎原之势；近两年悦己消费、体验消费等新消费形式不断涌出。2025年以来，节 假日居民出行意愿等指标，则显示居民短周期信心的" ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy announcement by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Civil Affairs aims to promote the development of smart elderly care service robots, which is expected to significantly boost the industry and accelerate technology implementation and market penetration [1][2]. Industry Overview - China's aging population is accelerating, leading to a surge in demand for elderly care services, while resources remain scarce. The rapid development of AI technology presents new solutions for the elderly care industry, making the smart elderly care robot market a focal point [2]. - According to a report by Founder Securities, the market size of the smart elderly care robot industry is projected to reach approximately 7.9 billion yuan in 2024, with rehabilitation robots accounting for the largest share at 45%. Emotional companionship robots are expected to grow at a remarkable annual rate of 120%, with the market size potentially exceeding 50 billion yuan by 2025 [2]. Company Developments - Several listed companies are actively entering the smart elderly care robot sector. For instance, Xilong Health has indicated that smart rehabilitation assistive devices, including smart wheelchairs and exoskeleton robots, are key development areas, although no mature products have been launched yet [2]. - Ousheng Electric has gained a competitive edge with its new intelligent nursing robot, which can automatically sense and identify the status of disabled patients, significantly improving care efficiency and patient comfort [2]. - Medisdon Medical Technology has formed strategic partnerships to integrate medical information technology with elderly care robotics, aiming to create a comprehensive solution platform for smart elderly care [3]. Market Challenges - Despite the promising outlook for the smart elderly care robot industry, there are challenges such as the need for improved environmental perception and adaptability in complex settings, as well as high production costs due to expensive raw materials [5][6]. - The market is becoming increasingly competitive, with many companies entering the field, leading to potential homogenization of products. Some companies are rushing to launch products without mature technology, resulting in varying product quality [5][6]. - Companies must focus on continuous R&D investment, mastering core technologies, and optimizing cost control to succeed in this competitive landscape [6].

Core Viewpoint - The document emphasizes the importance of developing affordable and sustainable services for the elderly and children, aiming to enhance the quality and accessibility of these services across various regions [1] Group 1: Policy Initiatives - The State Council has issued opinions to further guarantee and improve people's livelihoods, focusing on addressing urgent public concerns [1] - There is a strong push to expand low-cost facilities for "one elderly, one child" services through multiple channels [1] Group 2: Service Quality and Pricing - Support is provided for institutions offering "one elderly, one child" services to ensure quality, affordability, and sustainable operations [1] - The document calls for the improvement of pricing mechanisms for inclusive elderly care and childcare services, with an emphasis on guiding basic service charges [1] Group 3: Focus on Elderly Care - The policy highlights the need to enhance the medical and nursing capabilities of elderly care institutions, particularly for disabled elderly individuals [1] - New elderly care facilities are required to have at least 80% of their beds designated for nursing care [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Civil Affairs have issued a notice to initiate paired tackling and pilot application of intelligent elderly care service robots, focusing on addressing user needs in various elderly care scenarios [1] Group 1: Application Scenarios - The initiative targets three types of elderly care services: home-based, community, and institutional [1] - Key application scenarios include care for the disabled and cognitively impaired, emotional companionship, health promotion, smart environments, and daily life assistance [1] Group 2: Product Development and Validation - The program emphasizes the need for product improvement based on existing shortcomings, aiming to enhance safety, reliability, usability, and service capabilities [1] - A validation period of no less than 6 months is required for application testing in family, community, and elderly care institution settings [1] Group 3: Validation Requirements - Home care service robot products must complete validation in at least 200 households and deploy no fewer than 200 units [1] - Community and institutional elderly care service robots must validate in at least 20 communities or 20 elderly care institutions, with a deployment of no fewer than 20 units [1]

Global Population Trends - The median age of the global population has increased significantly over the past 50 years, with developed economies rising from 30 to 43 years and emerging economies from 19 to 30 years, projected to reach 47 and 40 years respectively by 2075 [2] - The average life expectancy has steadily increased, with developed economies rising from 72 to 82 years and emerging economies from 58 to 73 years, indicating a healthier aging population [4] - The global fertility rate has declined from 5.4 in 1963 to approximately 2.1 today, which is at the replacement level, but the actual threshold to maintain population stability is lower due to increased life expectancy [6] Labor Market Dynamics - Despite a decrease in the proportion of the working-age population in developed economies, the actual employment rate has increased, indicating a rise in labor force participation [10] - The trend of delayed retirement is largely driven by individuals' choices rather than policy changes, with many older adults opting to work longer due to improved health and longevity [11] - Women's participation in the labor force has also increased, contributing positively to overall employment rates and helping to mitigate the effects of an aging population [13] Longevity Economy - The aging population presents opportunities for economic growth through technological advancements and productivity improvements, particularly in sectors catering to elderly care [16] - The rise of "silver technology" is creating new markets, including smart healthcare solutions and elder care services, which are essential as the demand for elderly care increases [16] - The perception of older adults is shifting from being seen as a burden to being recognized as valuable consumers and contributors to the economy [16] China's Aging Population - China has officially entered a moderate aging phase, with over 310 million people aged 60 and above, representing 22% of the total population, indicating significant potential for the "silver economy" [18] - The market for silver economy in China is currently valued at approximately 8 trillion yuan and is rapidly expanding, driven by policy support and changing consumer demands [18] - The Chinese government is prioritizing the development of the silver economy as a national strategy, with various initiatives aimed at enhancing the quality of life for the elderly [19] Consumer Behavior Changes - The consumption patterns of older adults in China are evolving, with a shift from basic needs to quality consumption, including healthcare, cultural activities, and travel [20] - The demand for non-medical services among the elderly is expected to exceed 60% by 2030, indicating a significant market opportunity in sectors like entertainment and education [21] - The segmentation of the elderly population into different age groups allows for more targeted products and services, enhancing the potential for growth in the silver economy [21] Policy and Industry Development - China is actively developing its silver industry as a new driver of high-quality economic growth, focusing on urban-rural integration and technological innovation [22] - The silver economy encompasses a wide range of sectors, including smart devices, healthcare services, and financial products tailored for the elderly [22] - The integration of technology in elder care services is expected to enhance service quality and efficiency, leading to the emergence of a "smart elder care" ecosystem in China [22]

Group 1 - Consumption is a key component of economic activity, connecting production and people's livelihoods, with a focus on enhancing consumer spending to stimulate economic circulation and upgrade industries [1][2] - Economic development is essential for improving living standards, as it leads to GDP growth, increased corporate profits, and more job opportunities, which in turn raises residents' income levels [2][3] - Improvement in living standards can boost consumer confidence and spending, creating a positive feedback loop that supports economic growth and social stability [3][4] Group 2 - Stimulating consumption is crucial for expanding domestic demand, leading to industrial upgrades and innovation, particularly in sectors like automotive and home appliances [4][5] - Consumption upgrades drive traditional industries to transform, pushing companies to invest in technology and brand development to meet changing consumer demands [6][7] - New consumption trends, such as smart home products and mobile payment systems, are emerging, creating opportunities for related industries [7] Group 3 - Policies aimed at increasing residents' income levels are vital, including expanding income sources and improving employment stability through active employment policies [8][9] - Enhancing the social security system is critical for boosting consumer confidence, with a focus on improving pension and healthcare benefits [8][9] - New consumption growth points can be cultivated through support for service industries and the integration of digital technologies in consumption [9][10] Group 4 - Creating a favorable consumption environment involves infrastructure development, market regulation, and consumer rights protection, which are essential for promoting consumption [10]

王君 通讯员 赵越 报道 在中心,由医生、护士、康复师、社工、护理员等多学科护理团队力量,为在住长者进行健康评估,建立健 康档案,医疗定期查房,为每位患者制定个性化服务方案。这些方案融合了最新的认知康复技术,如记忆训 练、思维敏捷练习和日常功能锻炼,帮助缓解长者的精神行为症状(BPSD)。同时,省内外近20位著名专家 长期在中心轮流坐诊、教学、研究,中心全面整合国内外先进认知症照护疗法,形成了四位一体独具特色 的防治照护体系。 在长期的实践中,除了学习借鉴国际认知症非药物干预疗法,济南高新颐养中心独创了特色专业干预疗法 ——"娃娃疗法",并有效缓解了认知症长者行为障碍的程度,使长者的暴躁情绪慢慢趋于平静。"我们的认 知症防治照护专区,从筛查、护理到康复,都在逐步走向成熟。"许妍妍说。 早筛查、早干预是关键 在二十多平方米的公共活动区域,80岁的邵奶奶依旧抱着她的"娃娃",76岁的吕奶奶坚持拉着护理员陈洪 磊的手,坐在轮椅上的高爷爷拒绝拿起面前的画笔……在护理长田舒畅和几位社工的引导下,十几位老人 围坐在两米多长的桌前,开始拿着彩笔进行涂色训练。课程经常会被打断,有的老人会丢下彩笔离开课桌, 还有的老人会拉着社 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing focus on elderly care services in China, particularly through the integration of technology such as artificial intelligence and robotics, as the country faces a significant aging population, projected to reach 220 million people aged 65 and above by the end of 2024 [1]. Group 1: Smart Elderly Care Models - Shanghai is implementing a "smart" elderly care model, aiming to establish at least 100 smart nursing homes by the end of 2025, with over 70 already built [1][2]. - Smart nursing homes utilize intelligent devices, such as smart mattresses that transmit health data to caregivers, enhancing the efficiency of care services [3][4]. - The introduction of smart technology allows caregivers to focus on services that cannot be replaced by technology, improving overall care quality [3]. Group 2: Integration of Healthcare Services - Some nursing homes in Shanghai are exploring the "nursing home + internet hospital" model, connecting elderly residents with quality medical resources through online consultations and remote diagnostics [4][6]. - This model allows for online appointment scheduling, remote medical consultations, and prescription deliveries directly to nursing homes [6]. Group 3: Home-Based Elderly Care Innovations - In Shaoxing, Zhejiang Province, a "smart home care service system" provides 24-hour health monitoring and emergency services for elderly residents at home [7]. - The system utilizes big data to create visual health profiles and sends alerts to family members and healthcare providers in case of abnormalities [9]. Group 4: Smart Dining Solutions - In Lanzhou, Gansu Province, smart dining solutions are being implemented in elderly canteens, featuring facial recognition payment systems and AI nutritionists [10][12]. - The integration of smart technology in meal preparation and service enhances the dining experience for elderly individuals, ensuring nutritional balance and operational efficiency [12]. Group 5: Comprehensive Elderly Service Platforms - A new service platform in Lanzhou consolidates various services such as medication delivery, appointment scheduling, and maintenance requests, simplifying the process for elderly users [13]. - The platform has expanded to multiple cities in Gansu, with over 80,000 elderly individuals registered to benefit from its services [13].

Group 1: Elderly Care and Home Renovation Policies - Shanghai has optimized its home renovation policy for the elderly, providing a maximum government subsidy of 5,000 yuan per household, encouraging many elderly families to participate in the renovation process [1] - During the renovation, the living conditions of the elderly may be affected, prompting the Putuo District to match elderly care services with short-term care options to address practical challenges [1][5] - The short-term care model is viewed positively by service providers, as it offers a better approach for elderly home renovations [3] Group 2: Meal Delivery Services for the Elderly - In Pingxiang, Jiangxi, a "central kitchen + unified delivery" service system has been established to provide nutritious meals to elderly individuals who are high-risk, disabled, or have mobility issues [6] - The local community has organized volunteer delivery services to ensure that elderly residents receive hot meals at home, enhancing their quality of life [8] - A dietary committee has been formed to review meal menus weekly, ensuring balanced nutrition while keeping meal costs low, with elderly individuals only paying 5 yuan per meal [10] Group 3: Cross-Province Meal Services - A unique "cross-province canteen" in Quzhou, Zhejiang, allows elderly residents from both Zhejiang and Jiangxi provinces to enjoy affordable meals, with prices starting as low as 1 yuan [13][21] - The canteen initially served only local elderly residents but expanded its services to include those from neighboring Jiangxi after a cooperation agreement was reached [21] - This initiative not only addresses the dining needs of elderly individuals across provincial borders but also maximizes social benefits through resource sharing [25]

2024年，锦秋基金领投了星尘智能A轮融资。 锦秋基金，作为 12 年期的 AI Fund，始终以长期主义为核心投资理念，积极寻找那些具有突破性技术和创新 商业模式的通用人工智能初创企业。 2025年 6月6日，星尘智能与深圳首家市属公办护理型养老机构深圳市养老护理院达成深度战略合作， 双方基 于技术优势与场景深度协同，正式确立战略合作关系，聚焦 AI养老机器人研发、多模态数据训练及智慧照护 系统落地，共同探索具身智能技术在生活辅助、健康监测、情感陪伴等养老场景的创新应用，推动科技与人文 关怀的深度融合，共同探索智慧养老、科技养老新模式。 星尘智能与深圳市养老护理院达成深度战略合作 随着人口老龄化趋势加剧，科技赋能养老成为重要方向。然而，养老场景固有的高度复杂性，对智能技术的实 际应用提出了严峻挑战。具身智能机器人要在这一领域发挥实效，必须深度聚焦养老场景的真实需求，将 "能 力"建设紧密贴合具体实践。为真正实现"科技养老"，星尘智能与深圳 养老护理院规划在养老 领域的数字化、 智能化改造方面展开全面落地应用探索。 星尘智能 AI机器人Astribot S1将在 联合训练基地开展常态化驻场运行与真实场景测试， ...