商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 21 日 PVC：不宜追空，低位震荡 | | 陈嘉昕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | chenjiaxin2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | PVC 基本面数据 | | | | | 01合约期货价格 | 华东现货价格 | 基差 | 1-5月差 | | 4456 | 4420 | -36 | -311 | 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 【现货消息】 国内 PVC 盘中价格持续震荡下跌，受房产市场需求预期偏弱，相关大宗价格预期持续偏空，叠加现货 供应表现充足，加重市场短期看弱预期，现货受成本支撑表现坚挺，实盘成交重心降幅有限，华东地区电石 法五型现汇库提在 4400-4500 元/吨，乙烯法在 4500-4650 元/吨。 【市场状况分析】 PVC 期货跌至历史低位水平，且绝对估值处于低位，部分装置因亏损幅度较大，存在减产预期，因此短 期不宜追空。不过冬季仍是氯碱企业检修淡季，即使存在新增检修，其规模或有限，对 03 合约之前的期货 合约而言，仍然面临高开工、弱需求的格局 ...

烧碱山东江苏累库 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4492元/吨（-28）；华东基差-32元/吨（+8）;华南基差18元/吨（-2）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4460元/吨（-20）；华南电石法报价4510元/吨（-30）。 氯碱日报 | 2025-11-20 烧碱库存与开工：液碱工厂库存40.22万吨（-1.26）；片碱工厂库存3.02万吨（+0.12）；烧碱开工率84.10%（-0.70%）。 烧碱下游开工：氧化铝开工率85.37%（+0.12%）；印染华东开工率66.55%（-1.51%）；粘胶短纤开工率89.50%（-0.10%）。 市场分析 PVC： PVC单边震荡偏弱。供应端本周有1套装置计划检修，多数当前检修恢复，预计供应量回升，新投产能逐步量产： 渤化9月20日已满产；甘肃耀望与浙江嘉化试车后低负荷运行，随着近期新投产装置的增加，PVC供应端仍呈现充 裕格局。需求端下游开工下降，低价采购好转，但整体采购情绪一般。出口侧印度BIS认证取消，近期市场对反倾 销税取消预期增加，出口仍以价换量，出口签单环比走强；9月27日印度发起对PVC壁纸的反倾销调查。社会库存 小幅 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - PVC shows a weak and volatile trend. Supply is expected to increase with new capacity coming online, while demand is generally weak. Attention should be paid to anti - dumping tax policies and real - estate development policies [3] - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. Supply decreases due to more device maintenance, and demand is complex with different situations in different sectors. Cost support exists, and the price may be supported by new alumina plants' procurement [3] Summary by Relevant Categories Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,520 yuan/ton (-81), the East China basis is -40 yuan/ton (+61), and the South China basis is 20 yuan/ton (+31) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method is quoted at 4,480 yuan/ton (-20), and the South China calcium carbide method is quoted at 4,540 yuan/ton (-50) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 800 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,805 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is -125 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is -820 yuan/ton (-50), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit is -491 yuan/ton (-26), and the PVC export profit is 2.3 US dollars/ton (+3.5) [1] - PVC inventory and start - up: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 32.2 tons (-1.2), the social inventory is 53.2 tons (-1.3), the calcium carbide method start - up rate is 79.57% (-0.60%), the ethylene method start - up rate is 70.13% (-7.10%), and the overall start - up rate is 76.71% (-2.57%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 69.9 tons (-4.3) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,286 yuan/ton (-5), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 152 yuan/ton (+5) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,250 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,442 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 736.8 yuan/ton (-39.2), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is -30.97 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 721.53 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and start - up: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 40.22 tons (-1.26), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 3.02 tons (+0.12), and the caustic soda start - up rate is 84.10% (-0.70%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream start - up: The alumina start - up rate is 85.37% (+0.12%), the printing and dyeing start - up rate in East China is 66.55% (-1.51%), and the viscose staple fiber start - up rate is 89.50% (-0.10%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply: One device is planned for maintenance this week, most currently under - maintenance devices are being restored, and new capacity is gradually being put into production. The supply is abundant [3] - Demand: The downstream start - up rate decreases, and the low - price procurement improves, but the overall procurement sentiment is average [3] - Export: The Indian BIS certification is cancelled, and the expectation of anti - dumping tax cancellation increases. Exports are still based on volume at the expense of price, and export orders are stronger month - on - month. However, on September 27th, India launched an anti - dumping investigation on PVC wallpapers [3] - Inventory: The social inventory is slightly decreased, but the absolute value of inventory is high. The PVC futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the hedging pressure on the futures price persists [3] Caustic Soda - Supply: Device maintenance increases, and the start - up rate decreases slightly. Attention should be paid to the 100,000 - ton capacity release of Tangshan Sanyou [3] - Demand: The alumina factory in Shandong has a vehicle - pressing phenomenon, and the receiving price is lowered to 720 yuan/ton on the weekend, driving down the local spot price. The alumina start - up rate is slightly increased. The non - aluminum end is mainly for rigid demand procurement, and the demand will weaken in the off - season. The delivery price of liquid caustic soda in the East China region in November 2025 is around 850 - 915 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 15 - 60 yuan/ton [3] - Inventory: The high - strength caustic soda has support from low - price orders, the 50% caustic soda in Shandong is destocked, the 32% caustic soda is stocked up, and the overall inventory in Shandong is increased. The inventory in Jiangsu is generally destocked [3] - Price support: There are many expectations for the alumina factory to be put into production in Guangxi, but the production time is highly uncertain. The caustic soda tender is in progress, which may support the caustic soda price in the next two months [3] - Cost: The electricity price in Shandong will increase in November, the price of liquid chlorine is relatively weak, the chlor - alkali profit is at a low level compared with the same period, and cost support still exists [3] Strategy PVC - Single - side trading: Range - bound, and opportunistically conduct positive cash - and - carry arbitrage [4] - Inter - period trading: Wait - and - see [4] - Cross - variety trading: None [4] Caustic Soda - Single - side trading: Range - bound [5] - Inter - period trading: Go long on the SH12 - 01 spread when the price is low [5] - Cross - variety trading: None [5]

Group 1 - The chlor-alkali sector experienced a short-term surge, with Aystar Chemical hitting the daily limit up [1] - Other companies in the sector, including Shilong Industrial, Chlor-alkali Chemical, Tianyuan Co., Binhua Co., and Yinglite, also saw significant increases in their stock prices [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Yinglite's stock has shown significant growth, with an 8.34% increase on November 19, reaching a price of 10.13 yuan per share, and a total market capitalization of 3.993 billion yuan [1] - Yinglite's stock price has increased by 30.21% year-to-date, with notable gains of 10.23% in the last five trading days, 17.11% over the past 20 days, and 11.07% in the last 60 days [1] - The company operates in the basic chemical industry, focusing on products such as calcium carbide, calcium nitride, dicyandiamide, caustic soda, polyvinyl chloride resin, liquid chlorine, and hydrochloric acid, with PVC contributing 52.21% to its main business revenue [1] Group 2 - As of November 10, the number of Yinglite shareholders is 22,300, a decrease of 0.42% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 0.43% to 13,564 shares [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, Yinglite reported operating revenue of 1.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.97%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -247 million yuan, an increase of 4.07% year-on-year [2] - Yinglite has cumulatively distributed 608 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with no dividends distributed in the last three years [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity is expected to increase week - on - week. There is pressure on alumina enterprises to cut production due to environmental control expectations in the north and low production profits, but there are no signs of large - scale production cuts. Non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid demand procurement. The price of liquid chlorine is strong, but the market price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is under pressure. The current main basis is still high, and the market's weak supply - demand expectation needs to be verified. Attention should be paid to whether there is a centralized production cut plan for alumina in December. Technically, SH2601 should pay attention to the support around 2250 [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 2286 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the main contract position is 149,936 lots, down 717 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 17,632 lots, up 6338 lots; the main contract trading volume is 273,587 lots, down 118,158 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2286 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the closing price of the May contract is 2421 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ionic membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Jiangsu is 910 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2437.5 yuan/ton, down 31.25 yuan; the basis is 152 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 215 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of thermal coal is 656 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu is 150 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,060 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 2780 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.6 Industry News - From November 7th to 13th, the utilization rate of China's caustic soda production capacity decreased by 0.7% week - on - week to 84.1%. From November 8th to 14th, the national alumina operating rate increased by 0.12% to 85.37%; from November 7th to 13th, the viscose staple fiber operating rate decreased by 0.1% to 89.50%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 1.52% to 66.55%. As of November 13th, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories was 402,200 tons, down 3.04% week - on - week. From November 7th to 13th, the profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong was 425 yuan/ton, down week - on - week [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Qilu Petrochemical's 360,000 - ton unit restarted, while LG Chemical's 400,000 - ton and Henan Lianchuang's 400,000 - ton units were under maintenance, leading to a decline in PVC capacity utilization rate. The start - up rate of pipes increased slightly, while that of profiles continued to decline, and the downstream start - up rate of PVC decreased slightly. Social inventory decreased slightly, but the inventory pressure remained high. The prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide, ethane, and vinyl chloride dropped, driving down the costs of calcium carbide and ethylene processes. Due to the weak spot price of PVC, the losses of both processes deepened. This week, LG Chemical's 400,000 - ton unit will restart, and the impact of previously restarted units will expand, so the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to increase. In winter, it is the off - season for chlor - alkali plant maintenance, and PVC generally maintains a high - start state. As the temperature drops, the terminal demand of infrastructure and real estate weakens, and the downstream start - up rate of PVC is expected to decline seasonally. There is no specific implementation time for India's anti - dumping duty, and overseas demand remains uncertain. The domestic supply - demand contradiction is significant, and it is difficult to reduce PVC inventory, with high inventory pressure likely to continue. The price support of calcium carbide and ethylene at the cost end is limited. In the short term, V2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 4,490 - 4,620 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81 yuan. The trading volume was 904,897 lots, an increase of 104,133 lots. The open interest was 1,462,731 lots, an increase of 107,190 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 1,060,264 lots, an increase of 63,708 lots; the short position was 1,318,874 lots, an increase of 98,864 lots; the net long position was - 258,610 lots, a decrease of 35,156 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,531.92 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.54 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,692.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,596.88 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.38 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 61 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; in North China, it was 2,631.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; in Northwest China, it was 2,484 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 24.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR Far East intermediate price of VCM was 488 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 538 US dollars/ton, an increase of 20 US dollars. The CFR Far East intermediate price of EDC was 179 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 184 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC was 78.51%, a decrease of 2.24 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 80.79%, a decrease of 0.42 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 73.25%, a decrease of 6.44 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 532,300 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons; the inventory in the East China region was 484,900 tons, a decrease of 12,600 tons; the inventory in the South China region was 47,400 tons, a decrease of 800 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 92.78, a decrease of 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 45.399 million square meters, an increase of 5.59799 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.4858 billion square meters, an increase of 5.47106 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 358.6387 billion yuan, an increase of 41.6993 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 9.49%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.12%, unchanged. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 14.42%, an increase of 0.36 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 14.42%, an increase of 0.36 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - From November 8th to 14th, the capacity utilization rate of PVC producers was 78.51%, a decrease of 2.24% compared with the previous period. The downstream start - up rate of PVC decreased by 0.06% to 49.54%, among which the start - up rate of pipes increased by 1.2% to 40.6%, and the start - up rate of profiles decreased by 0.65% to 36.96%. As of November 13th, the social inventory of PVC decreased by 1.27% to 1.0283 million tons compared with the previous week. As of November 13th, the average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to 5,152 yuan/ton, and the average cost of ethylene - based PVC nationwide decreased to 5,239 yuan/ton; the profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to - 823 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC decreased to - 495 yuan/ton [2].

Core Viewpoint - Junzheng Group's stock has experienced fluctuations, with a current price of 5.18 CNY per share and a market capitalization of 43.709 billion CNY, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 1.37% and a recent decline of 3.36% over the past five trading days [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Junzheng Group reported a revenue of 18.691 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.63%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.798 billion CNY, showing a significant increase of 24.93% compared to the previous year [2]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Junzheng Group reached 184,700, an increase of 3.03% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 2.94% to 45,682 shares [2]. Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, Junzheng Group has distributed a total of 14.479 billion CNY in dividends, with 5.485 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the fourth largest circulating shareholder, holding 97.318 million shares, a decrease of 7.1485 million shares from the previous period. The fifth largest shareholder, Hongli Low Volatility (512890), increased its holdings by 8.048 million shares to 70.2073 million shares [3].

Group 1: Company Announcements - Yaxing Chemical plans to acquire 100% equity of Tianyi Chemical through a combination of share issuance and cash payment, with the transaction expected to add bromine series fine chemical products to its portfolio [1] - Jierong Technology elected Zhao Xiaoqun as the new chairman following the resignation of Zhang Shouzhi due to work adjustments [2] - Huan Tai Liquor's controlling shareholder plans to increase its stake in the company by investing between 70 million to 140 million yuan within six months [5] - Unigroup plans to acquire 1.28 million USD worth of shares in H3C, increasing its ownership from 81% to 82.8% [7] - Daily Interactive intends to invest up to 10 million yuan in the Yuhang AI Fund, which has a total scale of up to 100 million yuan [11] - Daan Gene's indirect controlling shareholder is set to change to Guangzhou Pharmaceutical Group, which will control 26.63% of the company after the completion of share transfers [12] Group 2: Industry Insights - The basic chemical industry is represented by Yaxing Chemical, which focuses on chlorinated polyethylene and caustic soda production [1] - Jierong Technology operates in the electronic industry, specializing in precision molds and components [2] - Huan Tai Liquor is part of the food and beverage industry, specifically in the production and sale of alcoholic beverages [5] - Unigroup is involved in the IT services sector, providing comprehensive ICT infrastructure and services [7] - Daily Interactive operates in the software development industry, offering data intelligence products and solutions [11] - Daan Gene is in the medical biotechnology sector, focusing on molecular diagnostic technologies [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC shows a weak and volatile trend. Supply is expected to increase with new capacity coming online, while demand is generally weak. Social inventory is slightly decreasing but still at a high level. The future trend depends on policies such as anti - involution and real - estate development policies [3] - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. Supply is affected by increased device maintenance, and demand varies in different sectors. The price may be supported by the expected alumina plant production in Guangxi, but costs also play a role [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures and Basis**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,601 yuan/ton (-7), the East China basis is - 101 yuan/ton (-13), and the South China basis is - 11 yuan/ton (-3) [1] - **Spot Price**: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,500 yuan/ton (-20), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,590 yuan/ton (-10) [1] - **Upstream Production Profit**: The blue carbon price is 800 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,805 yuan/ton (-25), the calcium carbide profit is - 125 yuan/ton (-25), the PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit is - 820 yuan/ton (-50), the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit is - 491 yuan/ton (-26), and the PVC export profit is - 1.2 US dollars/ton (-1.3) [1] - **Inventory and Operation Rate**: PVC factory inventory is 32.2 tons (-1.2), social inventory is 53.2 tons (-1.3), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate is 79.57% (-0.60%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 70.13% (-7.10%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 76.71% (-2.57%) [1] - **Downstream Orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 69.9 tons (-4.3) [1] Caustic Soda - **Futures and Basis**: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,291 yuan/ton (-36), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 147 yuan/ton (+5) [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton (-10), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda is 1,250 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - **Upstream Production Profit**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,442 yuan/ton (-31), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 776.0 yuan/ton (-31.3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 30.97 yuan/ton (-6.25), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 721.53 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - **Inventory and Operation Rate**: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 40.22 tons (-1.26), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 3.02 tons (+0.12), and the caustic soda operation rate is 84.10% (-0.70%) [2] - **Downstream Operation Rate**: The alumina operation rate is 85.37% (+0.12%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 66.55% (-1.51%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 89.50% (-0.10%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply is expected to increase as new capacity comes into production, while demand is weak with a general purchasing sentiment. Social inventory is decreasing slightly but still high. The futures price is under pressure from high - level warehouse receipts [3] Caustic Soda - Supply is affected by increased device maintenance. Demand varies, with alumina plants in Shandong reducing purchase prices. The price may be supported by the expected alumina production in Guangxi, and costs also play a role [3] Strategy PVC - Single - side: Range - bound, opportunistic cash - and - carry arbitrage - Inter - delivery: Wait - and - see - Inter - commodity: None [4] Caustic Soda - Single - side: Range - bound - Inter - delivery: Long SH12 and short SH01 at low prices - Inter - commodity: None [5]