Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not clearly indicated [1] - Methanol: Not clearly indicated [1] - Pure Benzene: Not clearly indicated [1] - Styrene: Not clearly indicated [1] - Propylene: Not clearly indicated [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars) [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Not clearly indicated [1] - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars) [1] - Soda Ash: Not clearly indicated [1] - Bottle Chips: Not clearly indicated [1] Core Views - The overall chemical market is affected by factors such as oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and device operations. Different chemical products show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures had a narrow - range intraday consolidation. Production enterprises had smooth shipments, but the overall trading atmosphere was average. Downstream demand provided some support, but the upward momentum of prices was insufficient [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures closed down. For polyethylene, supply was abundant, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid needs. For polypropylene, supply pressure was controllable due to concentrated maintenance, but downstream demand showed signs of weakening [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene futures closed below 5,500 yuan/ton again. The spot price in East China declined slightly. There was pressure in the short - term, but the supply - demand pressure might ease in the future. Consider long - short spreads on dips [3] - Styrene futures closed down slightly. The decline in crude oil prices made it difficult to drive the rise of styrene, but the supply - demand structure supported the price [3] Polyester - The decline in oil prices dragged down PX and PTA prices. The load of PX decreased slightly, and the output of PTA increased slightly. The supply - demand drive of the industry chain was limited [4] - Ethylene glycol rebounded rapidly in the late trading. The market faced inventory - building pressure due to increased supply and seasonal decline in demand. Short - term device shutdowns would relieve the supply pressure, but long - term pressure remained [4] - Short - fiber load ran at a high level, and inventory increased slightly. The long - term supply - demand pattern was relatively good. Bottle - chip demand weakened, and the long - term pressure was over - capacity [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures prices fluctuated weakly. The port inventory was expected to remain high. The short - term supply - demand pattern was difficult to improve significantly, and it would mainly fluctuate weakly within a range [5] - Urea prices declined slightly. Last week, urea production enterprises destocked. The supply was still high, and the market sentiment cooled down. The market was expected to oscillate and correct [5] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC continued to decline. The supply pressure might be relieved if enterprises were forced to overhaul. The export situation improved, but the domestic demand was weak. It was expected to operate in a low - level range [6] - Caustic soda continued to decline. The chlor - alkali integration still had profits, but the support for the liquid caustic soda price was limited. The industry faced high inventory pressure and would continue to compress profits [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand of PVC and caustic soda is weak, with cost support emerging in the PVC market and caustic soda prices continuing to decline [1][3] - For PVC, pay attention to subsequent device maintenance and macro - policy dynamics; for caustic soda, focus on liquid chlorine price trends and caustic soda device dynamics [3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures and Basis**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4431 yuan/ton (+5), the East China basis is - 41 yuan/ton (-25), and the South China basis is - 21 yuan/ton (-45) [1] - **Spot Prices**: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4390 yuan/ton (-20), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is 4410 yuan/ton (-40) [1] - **Upstream Production Profits**: The semi - coke price is 800 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2905 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 25 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 1019 yuan/ton (-139), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 472 yuan/ton (-8), and the PVC export profit is - 4.4 dollars/ton (+6.3) [1] - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PVC factory inventory is 32.6 tons (+0.3), social inventory is 52.9 tons (+0.1), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate is 82.09% (-0.12%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate is 71.92% (+0.80%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 79.01% (+0.16%) [1] - **Downstream Orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 69.8 tons (+2.9) [1] Caustic Soda - **Futures and Basis**: The closing price of the SH main contract of caustic soda is 2124 yuan/ton (+24), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 95 yuan/ton (-87) [1] - **Spot Prices**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 710 yuan/ton (-20), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda is 1180 yuan/ton (-20) [1] - **Upstream Production Profits**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1198 yuan/ton (-63); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 593.8 yuan/ton (-62.5); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 513.21 yuan/ton (-92.50); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 399.00 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 50.48 tons (+3.50), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 3.37 tons (+0.10), and the caustic soda operating rate is 86.00% (+1.00%) [2] - **Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of alumina is 86.20% (+0.14%), the operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 64.46% (-1.06%), and the operating rate of viscose staple fiber is 91.29% (+0.00%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply is abundant with only one enterprise planning maintenance this week, but some enterprises may cut production due to low prices [3] - Downstream demand is weak with stable film production and declining pipe and profile production, and rigid procurement [3] - Upstream production profits are at a low level year - on - year, and the cost of calcium carbide has increased [3] - The number of PVC futures warehouse receipts is at a high level, and the export profit has decreased [3] Caustic Soda - Spot prices have fallen due to lower purchase prices from Shandong downstream enterprises [3] - Supply is increasing with reduced enterprise maintenance and new production capacity coming on - stream [3] - Demand is weak with some alumina plants reducing purchases and non - aluminum demand turning weak in the off - season [3] - Inventory is accumulating, and the chlor - alkali profit is at a low level [3] Strategy PVC - **Single - side Trading**: Cautiously bearish, with limited downside space [4] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4] - **Cross - variety Trading**: No strategy [4] Caustic Soda - **Single - side Trading**: Cautiously bearish, with limited downside space [5] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [5] - **Cross - variety Trading**: No strategy [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not clear from the given star - rating description [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆, representing a more distinct short - term upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Pure Benzene: Not clear from the given star - rating description [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆, representing a more distinct short - term upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Polypropylene: Not clear from the given star - rating description [1] - Plastic: Not clear from the given star - rating description [1] - PVC: Not clear from the given star - rating description [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆, representing a more distinct short - term upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PX: Not clear from the given star - rating description [1] - PTA: Not clear from the given star - rating description [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Not clear from the given star - rating description [1] - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆, representing a more distinct short - term upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆, representing a more distinct short - term upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆, representing a more distinct short - term upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Bottle Chip: Not clear from the given star - rating description [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆, representing a more distinct short - term upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The futures of olefins and polyolefins show different trends. Propylene prices are rising due to low supply and good demand, while plastics and polypropylene are falling because of weak demand [2] - Pure benzene prices are pushed up by factors such as low valuation, expected supply - demand improvement, and rising oil prices. Styrene is also rising due to tight supply - demand balance [3] - In the polyester industry, PTA is cost - driven, ethylene glycol has supply pressure, short - fiber follows raw materials, and bottle chips are affected by cost and have over - capacity issues [5] - In the coal - chemical industry, methanol has a weak supply - demand pattern, and urea prices are expected to decline due to high supply and cooling demand [6] - In the chlor - alkali industry, PVC and caustic soda are both in a weak state with high supply and low demand [7] - Soda ash and glass are in an oversupply situation in the long - term, and the strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended [8] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures are weakly sorted. Market prices in Shandong are rising due to no actual increase in supply, low inventory, and good downstream purchasing [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures are falling. Polyethylene has weak demand, and polypropylene has a weakening new - order situation and low - cost raw material suppression [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices are rising. The weekly load of pure benzene devices is decreasing, and there is an expected supply - demand improvement. Consider long - short spreads in the positive set [3] - Styrene futures are rising. The overall domestic supply - demand is in a tight balance, and there is an expected decline in port inventory [3] Polyester - PTA prices are rebounding. PX load is slightly down, PTA output is slightly up, and the industry chain has limited supply - demand drive but cost support from oil price rebound [5] - Ethylene glycol has supply pressure. Its weekly output is rising, port inventory is increasing, and it is expected to accumulate inventory around the Spring Festival [5] - Short - fiber is running at a high load, with a slight increase in inventory. Its absolute price fluctuates with raw materials, and the long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively good [5] - Bottle chips have weakening demand, stable weekly load, weak processing margins, and over - capacity issues [5] Coal - chemical - Methanol ports are de - stocking, but the inventory remains high. The supply - demand pattern is difficult to improve significantly in the short - term, and it will fluctuate weakly in the range [6] - Urea prices are falling. Although there is inventory reduction in production enterprises, the market trading is cooling due to high supply and slow procurement [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC is weakly operating. Supply pressure may be relieved if enterprises are forced to overhaul, and the export situation has improved, but overall demand is weak [7] - Caustic soda is also in a weak trend. The industry is accumulating inventory, supply pressure is high, and downstream demand is insufficient [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices are falling. The industry is de - stocking, but supply pressure is high, and it shows a long - term oversupply pattern [8] - Glass prices are fluctuating slightly. The industry was de - stocking last week, but the sales may not be maintained this week. It has a long - term oversupply situation [8]

库存创出新高，价格创出新低 ——烧碱周报2025.12.08 作者： 刘培洋 联系方式：0371-58620083 电子邮箱：liupy_qh@ccnew.com 执业证书编号：F0290318 交易咨询编号：Z0011155 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、宏观：国内关注年底中央会议，海外重点关注本周美联储12月份 | | | | | 议息会议。 | 烧碱2601合约 | 1、国内外宏 | | | 2、供需面：山东地区供应高位，需求刚需，主力下游压车，短期整 | | 观政策及经 | | | 体预计缓慢，再需求端无明显增量，供应端不减量的情况下，山东 | 上方参考压力 | 济数据变化； | | 烧碱 | 液碱短期依旧小幅看跌。华东区域内供应仍宽裕，供需矛盾仍偏大， | 位2250元/吨 | 2、企业装置 | | | 传统需求淡季延续，出口未有明显提振下预估下液碱价格延续趋弱 | 一线，下方支 | 检修情况； | | | | 撑位2000元/ | | | | 表现。 | 吨一线。 | 3、下游需求 | | | 3、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Views - The basic chemical industry is expected to see a layout period at the end of the year, with a high overall weighted operating rate and low price differentials indicating potential for a reversal [14] - The tire industry has shown signs of recovery, with leading companies expected to return to high growth by 2026 due to easing tariffs and recovering raw material costs [15] - The introduction of the "Stabilizing Growth Work Plan for the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025-2026)" is anticipated to accelerate industry transformation and upgrading [16] Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The industry comprises 494 listed companies with a total market value of 54,965.58 billion and a circulating market value of 48,900.97 billion [2] Price and Performance - The report indicates a 2.0% absolute performance increase over one month, 28.6% over six months, and 25.6% over twelve months [3] - Key price increases this week include Henry natural gas (+18.5%), ethane (+10.4%), and octanol (+7.8%) [13] Sector Tracking - The tire sector is highlighted for its recovery, with nine out of eleven listed companies reporting profit growth in Q3 [15] - The agricultural chemical sector is noted for recent price increases in small pesticide varieties and the essential nature of fertilizers [7] - The phosphorous chemical sector is under observation for changes in industry dynamics due to favorable policies [7] Investment Strategies - Suggested investment routes include early-stage recovery stocks, scarce resource leaders, high-growth potential companies, and sectors with favorable supply-demand structures [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the fluorine, silicon, and phosphorus sectors for their valuation elasticity and potential for new cycle star products [17][18] Policy and Regulatory Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has initiated discussions on PTA industry development to prevent excessive competition and promote stable operations [16] - The report notes that the petrochemical sector is expected to undergo significant changes due to new policies aimed at optimizing supply and enhancing technological innovation [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that the short - term market has no obvious drivers, and it is expected to be mainly in a volatile state [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of caustic soda is falling, and the futures market is fluctuating weakly. Supply, demand, and macro - policies are neutral, while inventory, profit, and valuation are bearish [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, maintenance decreased, and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 0.8 million tons to 84 million tons. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 86.0%, a week - on - week increase of 1.0%. Loads in North, Central, and East China increased [3]. - **Demand**: Alumina production declined, non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 91.29%, unchanged from last week. The comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 64.46%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.07% [3]. - **Inventory**: Due to weak downstream demand and poor receiving enthusiasm, caustic soda inventory increased. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 504,800 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 7.43% and a year - on - year increase of 79.32% [3]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around 87, and the futures price is at a discount [3]. - **Profit**: The average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 13 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 46%. The theoretical production cost of caustic soda increased, and the overall chlor - alkali profit decreased [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price is at a low level, and the absolute futures price is relatively low. The near - month contract is slightly at a discount [3]. - **Macro - policy**: The anti - involution sentiment in the energy and chemical sector has subsided, and the market trades based on fundamentals [3]. - **Investment View**: The short - term market has no obvious drivers, and it is expected to be mainly in a volatile state [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: No unilateral or arbitrage strategies are recommended currently. Pay attention to changes in liquid chlorine prices, reserve policies, and the global economic recession [3]. 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: This week, Shandong's spot market was weak, and the futures market had weak bottom support. The liquid chlorine price was higher than in the first half of the year and increased this week, fluctuating around 200 yuan/ton. The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit was close to the break - even line. The spot price is expected to decline in a volatile manner. Follow - up attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine and the alumina production schedule [9]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of caustic soda continued to fall and has not yet stabilized. Due to the "buy on rising" psychology, demand is difficult to increase [9]. - **Open Interest**: The total open interest increased, and the far - month contracts saw an increase in positions [25]. 3.3 Fundamental Data of Caustic Soda Supply and Demand - **Electricity Price**: Coal supply was tight, and electricity prices rose [33]. - **Device Loss and Capacity Utilization**: The device loss and capacity utilization data are presented in a chart, and the overall capacity utilization rate showed certain trends [36]. - **Production in Main Producing Areas**: Maintenance in North China decreased, and production increased. The production data of different regions in different years are presented in a chart [38]. - **Chlor - alkali Profit**: The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit decreased [39]. - **Downstream Prices**: Alumina prices declined, and non - aluminum prices were weak [42]. - **Alumina**: Alumina production recovered, and inventory increased. Due to the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the production rate of alumina in Henan increased significantly. The supply - demand balance of alumina was restored, and inventory increased. The inventory of bauxite at ports decreased, and alumina profit was good and remained stable year - on - year [54][65]. - **Non - aluminum Demand**: Non - aluminum production remained stable but was lower than the same period last year. The non - aluminum industry entered a seasonal off - season, and production began to decline [66]. - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: The production rate rebounded [74]. - **Subsequent Maintenance Information**: Multiple enterprises in different regions have maintenance plans, including full - stop, half - load, and planned maintenance at different times [78].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report Caustic Soda - The caustic soda industry still faces certain supply - demand pressures. Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises are operating at a high level, and there are still vehicle - queuing situations at major downstream enterprises. Enterprises have high inventories, and there are no short - term positive factors. The price is expected to be weak in the next week. In the East China region, supply will remain abundant, the traditional off - season for demand will continue, and exports are not significantly boosted. It is estimated that the price in East China will continue to decline. Overall, the demand side provides weak support, and there are still long - term supply - demand pressures. The price of caustic soda is expected to run weakly [2]. - Futures strategy advice: Adopt a bearish approach. - Options strategy advice: Stay on the sidelines. PVC - The supply pressure will not ease next week, and the operating rate still has room for improvement. The operating rate of pipe and profile products remains low, while the soft products will remain in high demand, and export orders may increase slightly. The cost - side support is expected to continue to strengthen, and the PVC market is expected to continue to operate in a range. From November to January of the following year is the traditional off - season for demand. As outdoor construction in the north gradually decreases in winter, the overall real - estate demand reduction still has a negative impact. In terms of exports, the inventory in the Indian region is currently at a high level, the purchasing enthusiasm is average, the international market competition is fierce, and the export boost is limited. The overall demand side provides weak support for PVC, the supply - demand situation remains in an oversupply pattern, the price is not optimistic, and although the absolute price is low, it is difficult to form a continuous upward drive. It is expected to continue the bottom - weakening pattern [3]. - Futures strategy advice: Treat rebounds with a bearish attitude. - Options strategy advice: Stay on the sidelines. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Caustic Soda Market Performance - The caustic soda market has shown various trends due to factors such as macro - environment changes, supply - demand relationships, and cost fluctuations. For example, the 8 - month contract repaired the basis, and the market accelerated its decline. The spot market was in a game, and there were concerns about the marginal weakening under the subsequent supply recovery, with the downstream demand being stable [6]. Supply - As of Thursday this week, the weekly weighted average operating load rate of sample enterprises in major regions across the country was 89.86%, a 0.17 - percentage - point increase from 89.69% last week. There were few chlor - alkali device overhauls this week, and the operating load rate increased slightly. In Shandong, it was 91.45%, a decrease of 0.21% [25]. - On December 3rd, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda of expanded sample enterprises in East China was 253,150 tons, a 3.16% decrease from 261,400 tons on November 26th. The inventory in Shandong decreased slightly due to some factories delivering goods to downstream, and the overall inventory in East China decreased. The inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda of expanded sample enterprises in Shandong was 120,400 tons, a 3.53% decrease from 124,800 tons on November 26th [25]. Device Dynamics - There are multiple caustic soda production enterprises with various overhaul situations, including long - term shutdowns, current overhauls, and future planned overhauls. For example, Wuhai Chemical in the Northwest has been shut down since July 22, 2023, and the start - up time is undetermined; Zhejiang Juhua in the East China has been operating at half - load since October 11, continuing until January 1, 2026 [26]. Downstream Demand - Alumina: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned alumina production capacity to be put into operation is 1.23 billion tons (including 200 million tons of replacement). It is estimated that the annual production capacity growth rate will be around 10%. The estimated annual alumina production in 2025 will be over 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina demand is estimated to require an additional 400,000 - 550,000 tons of caustic soda per year, and the total demand increase for caustic soda is around 800,000 tons, with a relatively concentrated demand increase of 150,000 tons from April to June [30]. - Currently, the domestic alumina futures and spot prices are both poor, market confidence has not been significantly restored, and it is expected that the price will maintain a weak adjustment trend, with the price operating in the range of 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton [34]. - Non - aluminum downstream industries: The textile operating rate has declined, while the viscose staple fiber operating rate has increased [49]. Export - In October, caustic soda exports weakened, and the estimated export profit declined [56]. PVC Market Performance - The PVC futures market has been affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - sentiment, and cost. For example, due to the lack of positive supply - demand drivers and a poor commodity atmosphere, the futures price has continued to decline [63]. Profit - The industry profit of PVC has continued to deteriorate, and the profits of various production methods such as the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in East China and the northwest region have shown different degrees of decline [69]. Supply - This week, the operating load rate of the domestic PVC powder industry increased slightly. Only one enterprise had a temporary shutdown this week, and the previously overhauled enterprises gradually resumed production, resulting in a decrease in overhaul losses. The overall operating load rate of PVC powder this week was 79.01%, a 0.16 - percentage - point increase from last week; among them, the operating load rate of calcium carbide - based PVC powder was 82.09%, a 0.12 - percentage - point decrease; and the operating load rate of ethylene - based PVC powder was 71.92%, a 0.8 - percentage - point increase [85]. Device Dynamics - There are long - term shutdowns, current overhauls, and future planned overhauls of PVC production enterprises. For example, Taiwen Yanhua in North China has been shut down since September 30, 2022, and the start - up time is undetermined; Ningbo Hanwha in East China plans to conduct an overhaul from December 15th to December 28th [87]. Downstream Demand - The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, are facing great pressure. In addition to demand issues, they also face industry competition, so the industry's contribution is difficult to improve. The real - estate sector still provides negative demand feedback, and the domestic demand has not shown obvious improvement. The downstream orders are significantly lower than the average level of the past five years, and both raw material and finished product inventories are at high levels, so the PVC downstream is expected to lack positive drivers [93]. Inventory - The total PVC inventory is still at the highest level in recent years compared to the same period [101]. Export - In October 2025, the PVC export volume was 312,100 tons, with an average export price of 605 US dollars/ton. The cumulative export from January to October was 3.2338 million tons. The single - month export decreased by 9.91% month - on - month, increased by 34.28% year - on - year compared to the same month last year, and the cumulative export increased by 48.88% year - on - year. In October 2025, the PVC import volume was 10,900 tons, with an average import price of 725 US dollars/ton. The cumulative import from January to October was 186,400 tons. The single - month import decreased by 24.14% month - on - month, increased by 20.66% year - on - year compared to the same month last year, and the cumulative import increased by 1.74% year - on - year [119].

南华期货烧碱产业周报 ——基本面支撑不足 寿佳露（投资咨询资格证号：Z0020569） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月07日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 基本面支撑有限，淡季来临需求端有进一步走弱预期；烧碱产量高位，供应压力持续；估值上，液氯价格中 性，氯碱利润虽有下滑但处于中性位置。 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 * 远端交易预期 中长期投产压力继续，供需格局偏弱。 液碱周度厂内库存季节性 万吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 30 40 50 60 source： 南华研究 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 10 20 烧碱01合约基差季节性（山东） source： wind,南华研究 元/吨 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 -500 0 500 液碱山东周度工厂库存季节性 source： BAIINFO,南华研究 万吨 2022 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Caustic Soda**: The trend is weak. High production and high inventory persist, with demand facing challenges from low alumina profits, limited non - aluminum downstream support, and export pressure. The valuation is suppressed by alumina production cut expectations, and cost support is limited [5]. - **PVC**: The trend is also weak. High production and high inventory structures are difficult to change in the short term. Although the absolute valuation is low and some devices may cut production due to losses, the high - production and weak - demand situation still exists before the 03 contract. In 2026, more significant production cuts may be expected during the maintenance peak [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - **Price and Spread Trends**: The 01 basis of caustic soda strengthens, and the 1 - 5 month spread weakens. The 50 - 32 alkali spread rebounds and is currently in the normal range, while the flake - liquid alkali spread declines, which is negative for caustic soda [10][26][28]. - **Export Situation**: In October 2025, China's liquid caustic soda exports were 330,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.39% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.90%. From January to October, the cumulative export of liquid caustic soda was 2.944 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.93%. The total export volume of caustic soda remains stable, but new production capacity squeezes the export of Shandong inland enterprises [17]. - **Regional Arbitrage**: The regional arbitrage space between Shandong and Guangdong is acceptable [23]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Supply - **Production and Inventory**: The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 86.0%, a week - on - week increase of 1.0%. The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 504,800 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 7.43% and a year - on - year increase of 79.32% [5][37]. - **New Capacity**: In 2025 and 2026, caustic soda production capacity continues to be put into operation, with a growth rate of over 3% [43]. - **Cost and Profit**: In December, the large - scale industrial electricity price in Shandong Province is reduced, and the cost of caustic soda has limited support. The liquid chlorine price has not dropped significantly, and the cost support for caustic soda is limited [44][48]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Demand - **Alumina Industry**: In 2025, the alumina production capacity expands significantly, with an expected new capacity of 9.5 million tons. In 2026, the new production capacity may reach 13.9 million tons. However, the alumina industry is facing problems such as declining operating rates, rising inventories, and declining profits, which will have a negative impact on the demand for caustic soda [66][68][70]. - **Other Industries**: The demand in the pulp industry is in the off - season, and the terminal profit is continuously compressed. The paper pulp industry has new production capacity being put into operation. The viscose staple fiber operation is stable, the printing and dyeing operation rate declines, the water treatment industry operation is stable, and the output of the ternary precursor industry increases [84][90][96]. 3.4 PVC Price and Spread - **Price and Spread Trends**: The PVC basis fluctuates and strengthens, and the 1 - 5 month spread fluctuates and weakens [106]. 3.5 PVC Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The PVC production capacity utilization rate is 79.89%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.68%. In 2025, 2.2 million tons of new PVC production capacity will be put into operation, and there will be no new production capacity in 2026. The inventory of PVC production enterprises increases slightly, and the social inventory is at a high level [113][118][124]. - **Demand**: The real - estate terminal demand has not significantly recovered, and the overall downstream PVC operating rate decreases month - on - month. In October 2025, the PVC export volume was 312,100 tons, and the cumulative export from January to October was 3.2338 million tons [129][135][142].

早上好，先来关注下海外市场。 突发"黑天鹅"，巴西股汇"双杀" 本周五，巴西前总统长子、参议员弗拉维奥·博索纳罗表示，他的父亲、巴西前总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗已 表示将支持他2026年竞选总统。有关弗拉维奥的报道冲击了巴西市场，当日巴西雷亚尔兑美元汇率下跌 近3%，当地基准股指暴跌逾4%。 弗拉维奥参议员办公室对外证实，他将作为自由党的候选人挑战现任总统卢拉。 有分析师表示："市场之前预期弗雷塔斯会成为博索纳罗钦点的候选人，而市场的技术面仓位在一定程 度上也反映了这种乐观情绪。相比之下，弗拉维奥对阵卢拉的竞争力更弱，而且在经济政策预期方面也 更差，这对巴西资产来说都是负面因素。" 美国白宫发布新版《国家安全战略》 据央视新闻消息，美国白宫于当地时间4日晚发布特朗普政府的新版《国家安全战略》。这份文件共33 页，阐述本届美国政府对其外交政策的调整。 据悉，该战略的核心是美国重新调整美国在西半球的军事存在，以应对移民、毒品走私等。该战略称， 这是提出并实施针对门罗主义的所谓"特朗普推论"。 在有关欧洲的部分，有分析认为该战略对欧洲展示出前所未有的对抗姿态。该战略警告称，欧洲面临着 经济衰退，并且从长远来看，北约某些成 ...