6月18日，中东冲突再度升级，油价再度冲高。同类规模领先的油气资源ETF（159309）深V回升，截至13:01，涨幅达0.1%再度翻红，资金持续布局A股油 气板块，油气资源ETF（159309）盘中再度获得净申购1300万份，近10日吸金超4600万元！ 驱动市场波动的关键因素是伊朗为全球重要石油生产国之一，且对全球石油"咽喉"要道——霍尔木兹海峡具有一定的控制权。伊朗每天出口约150万桶石 油，且根据美国能源信息署（EIA）的数据，2024年每天都有大约2000万桶的原油和凝析油经过霍尔木兹海峡运往全球，约占到全球石油贸易的三分之一。 【油气资源ETF（159309）标的指数前十大成分股】 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 申万一级行业 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | 估算权重 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 601857 | 中国石油 | 石油石化 | 0.54% | 8.75亿 | 10.04% | | 2 | 600938 | 甲国海油 | 石油石化 | 0.67% | 9.57亿 | 9.57% | | 3 | 600028 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market remains stable despite tensions in the Middle East, continuing a pattern of slow upward movement amidst trade conflict concerns [1][2]. Market Outlook - The window for tariff events is closing, with a new policy window opening in late June, which may lead to a break in the current consolidation pattern if effective policies are implemented [2]. - The market is currently focused on tariff-related expectations, including U.S. court rulings and potential trade negotiations between China and the U.S. [2]. Hot Sectors - Consumption and healthcare sectors are expected to be key areas of focus, with an emphasis on domestic demand expansion as a priority for 2025 [3]. - The robotics sector is anticipated to grow, with advancements in various types of robots and related technologies [3]. - The semiconductor industry is on a path toward domestic production, with attention on equipment, wafer manufacturing, and IC design [3]. - The military industry is expected to see a rebound in orders by 2025, with signs of recovery in various sub-sectors [3]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is entering a growth phase after several years of adjustment, with positive profit growth expected [3]. - The AI sector is poised for new catalysts, particularly with updates from emerging models that are competitive with leading international models [3]. Market Review - The A-share market experienced narrow fluctuations, with previous leaders like innovative pharmaceuticals and banking showing signs of adjustment [4]. - Defensive sectors such as coal, utilities, and oil & gas led the market, indicating a shift in investor preference [4]. - Overall, the market maintained a positive earning effect, with over 2200 stocks rising despite some sectors facing declines [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in China, characterized by low valuations, high profitability, and substantial dividends, have become a safe haven for investors amid rising geopolitical tensions and market volatility [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng China SOE Index has increased by over 4.5% since June 1, 2023, and nearly 20% over the past year, outperforming other indices [1]. - The index has risen by 21.08% since its launch on April 17, 2023, significantly surpassing the Hang Seng Index's 17.72% and the Shanghai Composite Index's 1.51% during the same period [2]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The top three sectors by weight in the Hang Seng China SOE Index are finance (43.4%), energy (22.4%), and telecommunications (17.1%), all of which are high-dividend sectors [2]. - Major companies in the top ten weighted stocks include China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Mobile, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation [2]. Group 3: Policy and Reform - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in 2024 aims to enhance state-owned enterprise reforms, which are expected to provide new growth momentum and improve performance [2]. - The market anticipates that these reforms will lead to significant improvements in the operational efficiency and profitability of SOEs [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current low valuation levels of SOEs, combined with accelerated mergers and acquisitions, are expected to raise the valuation center of these enterprises [3]. - The low interest rate environment may encourage long-term funds, such as insurance and pension funds, to increase their allocation to high-dividend SOEs [3]. - Improved liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market, driven by enhanced trading mechanisms and increased southbound capital inflows, is likely to benefit the Hang Seng China SOE Index [3].

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月17日 金融工程日报 A 股窄幅整理，稳定币持续活跃、创新药调整明显 市场表现：今日(20250617) 大部分指数处于下跌状态，规模指数中上证 50 指数表现较好，板块指数中上证综指表现较好，风格指数中沪深 300 价值指 数表现较好。综合金融、煤炭、综合、电力公用事业、石油石化行业表现较 好，医药、传媒、轻工制造、汽车、纺织服装行业表现较差。稳定币、抗核 辐射、页岩气、可燃冰、油气开采等概念表现较好，化学制药精选、CRO、 谷子经济、创新药、减肥药等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：今日收盘时有 60 只股票涨停，有 10 只股票跌停。昨日涨停股票 今日收盘收益为 1.16%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘收益为-2.44%。今日封板率 65%，较前日下降 7%，连板率 17%，较前日下降 11%。 市场资金流向：截至 20250616 两融余额为 18223 亿元，其中融资余额 18100 亿元，融券余额 123 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.3%，两融交易占市 场成交额比重为 8.7%。 折溢价：20250616 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是影视 ETF，ETF 折价较多的是 BO ...

Market Overview - The oil prices continued to rise significantly due to geopolitical conflicts, while the domestic equity market showed mixed performance, with the ChiNext Index increasing by 0.22% [3] - The sectors that performed well included non-ferrous metals, oil and petrochemicals, and agriculture, while food and beverage, home appliances, and building materials sectors saw declines [3] Fund Issuance - A total of 16 new funds were established in the domestic market this week, with a total issuance of 8.934 billion units. This included 5 bond funds, 6 mixed funds, 4 equity funds, and 1 FOF fund [4] - Overall, 34 new funds were issued across the market, comprising 19 equity funds, 5 mixed funds, 4 FOF funds, 3 bond funds, 2 REITs, and 1 international (QDII) fund [4] Fund Performance Tracking - The medical theme funds continued to show an advantage, increasing by 3.75%, while TMT theme funds experienced a net value decline. As of June 13, 2025, the performance of various thematic funds was as follows: medical (3.75%), cyclical (2.44%), financial real estate (1.01%), industry rotation (0.37%), national defense and military industry (0.20%), industry balance (0.08%), new energy (-0.02%), consumption (-1.01%), and TMT (-1.26%) [5] ETF Market Tracking - Stock ETFs experienced continued outflows, with significant net outflows from large-cap broad-based ETFs. Conversely, Hong Kong stock and commodity ETFs saw inflows. The median return for stock ETFs was -0.10%, with a net outflow of 15.42 billion yuan [6][7] - The median return for Hong Kong ETFs was 0.65%, with a net inflow of 1.866 billion yuan, while cross-border ETFs had a median return of 0.63% and a net outflow of 2.278 billion yuan. Commodity ETFs had a median return of 1.54% and a net inflow of 2.039 billion yuan [7] Fund Positioning - The estimated position of actively managed equity funds decreased by 0.50 percentage points compared to the previous week. In terms of sector allocation, funds increased their positions in oil and petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, and telecommunications, while reducing holdings in home appliances, food and beverage, and electronics [9] ESG Financial Products Tracking - The green bond issuance market was active this week, with 24 new green bonds issued, totaling 39.782 billion yuan. The cumulative issuance of green bonds in the domestic market reached 4.52 trillion yuan, with a total of 3,895 bonds issued [10] - In terms of fund performance, the median net value change for actively managed equity, passive index equity, and bond ESG funds was -0.16%, 0.21%, and 0.08%, respectively. Funds focused on carbon neutrality, sustainability, and the Belt and Road Initiative performed notably well. As of June 13, 2025, there were 213 ESG funds in the domestic market, with a total scale of 132.331 billion yuan [10]

盘后数据出炉。 今日（6月17日），A股市场整体维持震荡走势。截至收盘，上证指数报3387.4点，下跌0.04%；深证成指报10151.43点，下跌 0.12%；创业板指报2049.94点，下跌0.36%。两市合计成交12072.13亿元，较上一交易日减少78.63亿元。 1.两市主力资金净流出近200亿元 今日沪深两市主力资金开盘净流出50.39亿元，尾盘净流出24.88亿元，两市全天主力资金净流出195.54亿元。 | | | 沪深两市最近五个交易日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 净流入金额 开盘净流入 | 尾盘净流入 | 超大单净买入 | | 2025-6-17 | -195. 54 | -50. 39 | -24. 88 | -76. 48 | | 2025-6-16 | -27. 30 | -36. 84 | 0. 57 | 19.06 | | 2025-6-13 | -378.91 | -133.57 | -30. 91 | -156. 98 | | 2025-6-12 | -92. 69 | -48.78 | ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3387.40 points, down 0.04%, with a trading volume of 4580.38 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10151.43 points, down 0.12%, with a trading volume of 7491.84 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2049.94 points, down 0.36%, with a trading volume of 3729.92 billion yuan [1] - The total trading volume of both markets was 12072.22 billion yuan, a decrease of 78.66 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - Strong sectors included oil and petrochemicals, transportation, retail, coal, home appliances, and electricity [1] - Active concepts included brain engineering, oil and gas services, nuclear pollution prevention, natural gas, glyphosate, and AI glasses [1] - Weak sectors included pharmaceuticals, beauty care, media, textiles, light manufacturing, automotive, jewelry, and chemicals [1] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 2155 stocks rose, while 2752 stocks fell, with 60 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 10 stocks hitting the limit down [2] - The most popular stock hitting the limit up was Xiexin Energy, with a closing limit up order of 39.52 million shares [2] - Stocks with significant net inflows included Rongfa Nuclear Power with a net inflow of 5.24 billion yuan and Lakala with 4.70 billion yuan [8][9] Fund Flow Analysis - The net outflow of main funds in the two markets was 195.54 billion yuan, with the ChiNext experiencing a net outflow of 98.43 billion yuan [5] - Eight sectors saw net inflows, with the electronics sector leading with a net inflow of 15.29 billion yuan [6] - The media sector had the highest net outflow, totaling 44.26 billion yuan [6] Institutional Activity - Institutions had a net buy of approximately 350.78 million yuan, with the most net bought stock being Cuihua Jewelry at about 55.47 million yuan [12] - The most net sold stock was Hars with a net outflow of approximately 58.40 million yuan [12]

申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者李金玲 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您 的财富保驾护航。 数据速看： 1.主力资金： 近两周主力资金合计净流出1176.07亿元，主力资金净流入的行业为煤炭，主力资金净流 出额前三的行业为计算机、电子和机械设备。 2.融资融券数据： 当前市场融资融券余额为18213.25亿元，较上期上升0.66%，其中融资余额18089.88 亿元，融券余额123.37亿元。本期两融日均交易额为1080.18亿元，较上期上升15.74%，其中融资日均 净买入1075.41亿元，较两周前上升15.77%，融券日均净卖出4.78亿元，较上期上升8.80%。近两周融资 净买入前三的行业分别为医药生物、汽车和食品饮料；融券净卖出前三的行业分别为银行、有色金属和 商贸零售。 3.涨跌情况： 近两周全市场下跌家数高于上涨家数，近两周涨幅前三的行业为有色金属、石油石化和通 信，跌幅前三的行业为食品饮料、家用电器和商贸建筑材料。 4.强弱分析： 近两周全部A股强弱分析得分为5.39，沪深300强弱分析得分5.4 ...

Macro Economic Analysis - In May, the consumption of goods and services showed a significant recovery, driven by the "old-for-new" policy and holiday effects, with retail sales exceeding expectations [1] - However, investment growth slowed due to fewer working days, US tariff policies, and a widening decline in real estate sales, indicating a mixed economic recovery with improving demand but slowing investment [1] Fund Market Insights - The pharmaceutical-themed funds continued to perform well, increasing by 3.75%, while TMT-themed funds saw a decline [2] - Stock ETFs experienced a net outflow of 154.20 billion yuan, with significant outflows from large-cap broad-based ETFs, while sectors like oil and petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, and communications saw increased fund allocation [2] Transportation Industry Outlook - The escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East has led to a surge in VLCC freight rates, with expectations for further price recovery due to increased oil transport risks and potential sanctions on Iranian oil production [3] Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The price of London gold reached a historical high, and the steel sector is expected to recover to historical profit levels following the revision of industry standards [4] Pharmaceutical Industry Developments - AI technology is rapidly advancing in the pharmaceutical sector, with notable product innovations and collaborations, suggesting investment opportunities in companies like Heng Rui Pharmaceutical and Mindray Medical [5] Renewable Energy Sector - Continued optimism for investments in wind power, virtual power plants, and solid-state batteries, with nuclear fusion research gaining momentum despite its long path to commercialization [7] Machinery Industry Updates - The 2025 Intelligent Robotics Development Conference highlighted advancements in humanoid robots, with a focus on companies like Zhaowei Electromechanical and Mingzhi Electric [8] Copper Industry Analysis - Domestic waste copper production in May was 92,000 tons, down 20% year-on-year, indicating supply-side disruptions and potential upward price movements contingent on domestic stimulus policies [9] Basic Chemicals Sector - Recent accidents in chemical enterprises have raised concerns, with recommendations to focus on leading companies in various sub-sectors, including oil and gas, and new materials [10] Construction and Building Materials Sector - The government is pushing for a new model in real estate development, with recommendations to focus on companies like Honglu Steel Structure and China National Chemical [11]

Market Performance - On June 16, 2025, the North Exchange 50 index increased by 1.84%, closing at 1408.15 points[3] - The overall trading volume on the North Exchange was 28.73 billion CNY, with a turnover rate of 5.21%[3] - Compared to the previous week, the average daily trading volume decreased from 32.60 billion CNY to 28.73 billion CNY[3] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Oil & Petrochemicals (+19.3%), Utilities (+6.0%), and Computers (+3.5%) on June 16, 2025[3] - The sectors with the largest declines were Textiles & Apparel (-4.9%), Defense & Military (-1.3%), and Transportation (-1.3%)[3] Individual Stock Performance - Among the 267 listed companies, 182 saw their stock prices rise, while 78 experienced declines[3] - Leading gainers included Meideng Technology (+21.85%) and Huaxin Yongdao (+19.72%) while the largest decliners were Yeguangming (-8.84%) and *ST Yunchuang (-6.35%)[3] Valuation Metrics - The overall valuation of the North Exchange was approximately 50.83 times earnings, higher than the ChiNext's 34.40 times[3] - The highest average P/E ratios were in the Electronics sector (209.9 times) and Computers (148.3 times)[3] Risks - Potential risks include lower-than-expected policy support, insufficient technological innovation, intensified market competition, and market volatility[3]