Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump announced new tariff rates for eight countries, including Brazil, with rates ranging from 20% to 50%, effective August 1, 2025 [1] - Brazil's Vice President criticized the U.S. for raising tariffs, stating that 80% of U.S. exports to Brazil are already duty-free, indicating a trade surplus for the U.S. [1] - Brazil's economy is the largest in Latin America, with a GDP ranking among the top ten globally, and it has developed industries in petrochemicals, mining, steel, and automotive sectors [2] Group 2 - The direct trigger for the U.S. tariffs is a discrepancy in trade statistics, with the U.S. claiming a trade deficit while Brazil argues that service trade is included in the U.S. statistics [4] - In 2024, Brazil imported $42.41 billion from the U.S. and exported $40.33 billion to the U.S., highlighting the close trade relationship [4] - Political motivations are also at play, as Trump has publicly questioned the Brazilian government's investigation into former President Bolsonaro, suggesting that tariffs could be used as leverage [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. is expected to accelerate copper imports ahead of the implementation of a new 50% tariff on all copper imports, as announced by President Trump [1] - The new tariff is anticipated to take effect around July 31 or August 1, according to U.S. Commerce Secretary [1] - Traders are moving copper from global warehouses to the U.S. to capitalize on the current price premium of approximately $2,600 per ton [1] Group 2 - Analysts predict that U.S. copper imports will decline in the months following the tariff implementation as users deplete their inventories [2] - Citigroup forecasts that copper prices outside the U.S. will drop to $8,800 per ton in the next three months, although any decline may be limited by ongoing global supply constraints [2] - A mining intelligence analyst suggests that while copper prices are under pressure, they may rebound after the tariff is finalized due to tight fundamentals in the short term [2]

Core Viewpoint - Guangxi, known as the "hometown of non-ferrous metals," plays a crucial role in ensuring national resource security with significant mineral reserves, having resources in 30 out of 36 strategic minerals, with 10 ranking in the top five nationally [1][2] Group 1: Mining Strategy and Implementation - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, Guangxi's Natural Resources Department has actively implemented the national energy resource security strategy, focusing on mining exploration and achieving all assigned tasks ahead of schedule by June 2025 [1][3] - The provincial government prioritizes mining work as a key initiative, emphasizing the importance of energy resource security and mobilizing resources across the region to meet national demands [3][7] Group 2: Financial and Institutional Support - Guangxi has allocated over 2 billion yuan (approximately 0.3 billion USD) from central, local, and social funds for geological exploration during the 14th Five-Year Plan, ensuring continuous support for mining activities [3][6] - The region has simplified the approval process for mining rights, reducing costs for enterprises and enhancing their engagement in exploration activities [6][7] Group 3: Collaborative Efforts and Innovations - Over 40 geological survey teams and mining companies in Guangxi have developed targeted exploration plans, leading to the identification of 37 prospective mining areas and 89 target areas, with 48 new mineral sites discovered [4][5] - Guangxi has successfully hosted 13 China-ASEAN Mining Cooperation Conferences, signing 184 projects worth over 68 billion yuan (approximately 10.5 billion USD), expanding its international market presence [8][9] Group 4: Technological Advancements and Future Focus - The region has made significant breakthroughs in exploring strategic minerals such as aluminum, manganese, tin, antimony, indium, and rare earths, further solidifying Guangxi's position in the national mineral landscape [7][10] - Future efforts will concentrate on challenging minerals like manganese, aluminum, and zircon, with a commitment to enhancing technological innovation and exploration investments [10]

Core Viewpoint - Following Trump's threat to impose a 50% tariff on copper, traders are adjusting shipping routes to expedite deliveries before the tariff takes effect on August 1, 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Shipping Route Adjustments - Copper traders are re-planning shipping routes to shorten delivery times, with shipments to Hawaii taking approximately ten days compared to over a month to New Orleans [2]. - At least one trader has already completed a shipment to Hawaii, and Puerto Rico is also seen as an attractive option for South American producers due to its status within the U.S. tariff zone [2]. Group 2: Market Premium Surge - Following the tariff announcement, the premium of New York futures prices over international benchmark prices surged to about 25%, with arbitrage spreads continuing to rise [3]. - Major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan expect the arbitrage spread to widen further, potentially reaching 50% [3]. - Buyers are willing to pay significant premiums for copper, with some paying nearly $400 per ton above the London Metal Exchange prices to secure last-minute supplies [3]. Group 3: Uncertainties Surrounding Tariff Implementation - Despite the announcement of the 50% tariff, there are uncertainties regarding which types of copper will be affected, and previous tariffs on steel and aluminum provided exemptions for goods already in transit [5]. - The current price gap between New York and London copper prices is significantly lower than 50%, indicating market uncertainty about the widespread implementation of the tariff [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term price trend is expected to be volatile [16] - Stock Index Futures: Suggest balanced allocation of various stock indices [19] - US Dollar: Short - term volatility is expected [23] - US Stock Index Futures: Be cautious about the risk of correction [26] - Treasury Bond Futures: Long positions can be held, and trading positions should be treated with a volatile mindset [29] - Soybean Meal: Domestic and foreign futures prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term [31] - Live Pigs: Mainly operate with range - bound trading [34] - Rebar/HRC: On the spot side, it is recommended to hedge on rallies [38] - Corn Starch: Future uncertainty is high [39] - Corn: New crop short positions can consider entering the market lightly in advance [42] - Thermal Coal: Prices are expected to remain flat in July [43] - Iron Ore: Look for short - selling opportunities around $100 [44] - Coking Coal/Coke: Pay attention to the sustainability of demand, and the upside space may be limited [46] - Copper: The market is expected to decline in the short - term, with a short - term bearish strategy [50] - Lead: Look for buying opportunities on pullbacks and consider short - put opportunities [52] - Zinc: Look for opportunities to short on rallies and manage positions well [56] - Nickel: In the short - term, it is expected to trade in a narrow range at a low level, and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [58] - Lithium Carbonate: Pay attention to buying on dips and positive arbitrage opportunities [62] - LPG: Prices are expected to remain weakly volatile with insufficient upward drivers [66] - Crude Oil: Short - term range - bound trading is expected [69] - Styrene: Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies and consider medium - term positive arbitrage opportunities [72] - Caustic Soda: The short - term market is expected to be volatile [74] - Pulp: The market is expected to be volatile [77] - PVC: The subsequent market may have limited upside [78] - Bottle Chips: Look for opportunities to expand processing margins by buying on dips [80] - PX: Short - term volatility adjustment, and the medium - term gap will widen [82] - PTA: Short - term price volatility adjustment, and pay attention to the impact of PX maintenance in the medium - term [84] - Soda Ash: Maintain a view of short - selling on rallies in the medium - term [85] - Float Glass: Consider long glass and short soda ash cross - variety arbitrage [86] - Container Freight Rate: The central price of the market may move up further [87] 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is significantly affected by Trump's tariff policies, which impact the inflation expectations of the Federal Reserve, the risk appetite of the market, and the confidence in terminal demand growth [22][49] - The inflation data in June deviated slightly from expectations, with CPI exceeding expectations and PPI falling short. The overall price level is still low, and the upstream price decline is obvious, but it has little impact on market risk preference [28] - In the commodity market, different varieties have different supply - demand situations. Some are affected by seasonal factors, some by production and inventory changes, and some by policy adjustments [33][43][62] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The 10 - year US Treasury auction data is good, and the Fed's meeting minutes show reduced economic uncertainty. Gold prices oscillated and closed higher, supported near the 60 - day moving average. Short - term gold prices are expected to be volatile [14][15][16] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Council issued new policies to support stable employment. The stock market rose and then fell, with cooling market sentiment but still high trading volume. The core factors are the uncertainty of overseas tariff policies and the mismatch between corporate profit growth and valuation [17][18][19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Fed's meeting minutes show differences among officials in inflation expectations. Trump announced new tariff letters. The US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short - term [21][22][23] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The EU is urging the US to lift tariffs. The Fed's meeting minutes show differences in interest rate expectations. The US stock market is at a position with insufficient pricing of negative factors, and there is a risk of correction [24][25][26] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - In June, CPI exceeded expectations and PPI fell short. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and long positions can be held [27][28][29] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA will release the July supply - demand report. Market concerns about trade wars and US soybean exports are increasing. Domestic soybean meal spot is weak. Short - term prices are expected to be volatile [30][31] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Live Pigs) - New Wufeng's pig sales increased in the first half of the year. In July, the supply is still high, and the demand is gradually recovering, with intensified long - short competition. It is recommended to trade within a range [32][33][34] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - The passenger car market retail sales increased in June. Peru imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese wire rods. Steel prices are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies [35][36][38] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch production and operating rates decreased this week, and inventory increased. The demand is in the off - season, and future uncertainty is high [39] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Port corn inventories decreased. Market sentiment is weak, and it is recommended to short new crop corn lightly in advance [40][41][42] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - Due to high - temperature weather, coal demand increased. Although production and transportation were affected by rain, prices are expected to remain flat in July [43] 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - A Russian company invested in an iron ore project. Ore prices rebounded with the black market, but the upside is limited. Look for short - selling opportunities around $100 [44] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in the southwest is stable. The market is affected by macro factors, and the upside space may be limited [45][46] 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - A mining company's copper production increased. Argentina adjusted mining policies. Chile is waiting for US communication on copper tariffs. Copper prices are expected to decline in the short - term [47][48][50] 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread is in contango. A lead mine may enter the Chinese market in the third - quarter. Lead prices are expected to rise gradually, and look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [51][52] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc spread is in contango. A zinc mine plans to expand production. Zinc prices are expected to be volatile, and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [53][55][56] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - An Indonesian company acquired a nickel mine stake. Nickel prices are expected to trade in a narrow range at a low level in the short - term, and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [57][58] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - New lithium ore was discovered in Hunan, and a lithium project in Zimbabwe restarted. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to rise, and pay attention to buying on dips and positive arbitrage opportunities [60][61][62] 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (LPG) - India plans to increase LPG imports from the US. US C3 inventory increased. LPG prices are expected to be weakly volatile [63][64][66] 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Kazakhstan plans to maintain current production until the end of the year. US EIA crude inventory increased. Oil prices are expected to trade in a range in the short - term [67][68][69] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - Styrene port inventory increased. Pure benzene is expected to reduce inventory in July - August, but downstream profit margins have decreased. Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [69][70][72] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong is stable. The decline in caustic soda prices has basically ended, and the market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [73][74] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is mostly stable. The market is expected to be volatile [75][77] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - PVC prices rose, but the fundamentals are weakening. The subsequent market may have limited upside [78] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory prices are stable. The industry plans to reduce production in July, and pay attention to opportunities to expand processing margins [79][80] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (PX) - PX prices rebounded slightly. In the short - term, it will be volatile, and the medium - term gap will widen [81][82] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - PTA spot basis is stable. Demand is under pressure in the short - term, and pay attention to the impact of PX maintenance in the medium - term [83][84] 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda ash prices are volatile. With high inventory levels, it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [85] 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - Float glass prices are stable. The market is expected to be volatile, and a long - glass short - soda - ash arbitrage strategy is recommended [86] 3.2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Container freight rates are expected to rise, but there are also negative factors [87]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% during the June 17-18 meeting [1] - Participants noted that despite fluctuations in net exports, recent indicators suggest steady economic expansion, with low unemployment and a robust labor market, although inflation remains slightly elevated [2] - Economic uncertainty has decreased but remains high, according to the meeting participants [2] Group 2: Tariffs and Trade Relations - President Trump announced new tariffs on products from several countries, effective August 1, 2025, with rates of 25% on Brunei and Moldova, 30% on Algeria, Iraq, Libya, and Sri Lanka, 20% on the Philippines, and 50% on all Brazilian products [4] - The announcement led to a significant depreciation of the Brazilian real against the dollar, with Brazilian stocks, including Petrobras and Vale, experiencing declines [4] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock indices rose collectively, with the Nasdaq closing nearly 1% higher, reaching a historical high [8] - Nvidia's stock surged by 1.8%, briefly pushing its market capitalization above $4 trillion, making it the first company to reach this milestone [10] Group 4: Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $112,000, with a maximum increase of 3%, and has risen approximately 19% year-to-date [14] - Other cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum and Solana, also saw significant gains, with over 10,400 liquidations totaling $505 million in the past 24 hours [14][15]

Group 1 - The construction of the national resource-based economic transformation comprehensive reform pilot zone is a strategic task assigned to Shanxi by the central government [2] - The launch of the second production line for the 300,000-ton high-performance glass fiber intelligent manufacturing project by Taishan Glass Fiber (Taiyuan) Co., Ltd. and the completion of 16 membrane production lines by Shanxi Housheng New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. highlight ongoing project developments in Shanxi's transformation demonstration area [2] - Shanxi's industrial transformation focuses on energy transition, industrial upgrading, and moderate diversification, with plans to introduce more industrial planning and support policies [2] Group 2 - The integration of resources in Handan City, Hebei Province, aims to accelerate the construction of industrial parks, enhancing the business environment for enterprises [3] - The focus on safety and stability during the transformation process is emphasized, with local governments implementing measures to improve living standards and social security [4] - The ecological restoration efforts by Liaoning Fushun Mining Group, which has completed over 12,000 acres of re-greening, demonstrate a commitment to ecological safety [4] Group 3 - The lithium battery new energy industry in Chenzhou City, Hunan Province, is identified as a breakthrough for resource-based economic transformation [5] - The importance of maintaining a clean political environment and optimizing administrative efficiency is highlighted as essential for supporting industrial transformation and high-quality development [5] - The revitalization of educational facilities in Qujing City, Yunnan Province, reflects the commitment to addressing community needs and improving local infrastructure [5]

厄瓜多尔矿业商会主席：厄瓜多尔矿业行业对收费提出宪法挑战。 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 7 月 9 日 [Table_Title] 艾芬豪 2025Q2 铜产量同比增长 11%至 11.20 万 吨，锌产量达到 4.18 万吨 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: 评级及分析师信息 [Table_IndustryRank] 行业评级：推荐 [Table_Pic] 行业走势图 [Table_Author] 分析师：晏溶 邮箱：yanrong@hx168.com.cn SACNO：S1120519100004 相关研究： 1.《行业点评|艾芬豪 2025Q1 铜产量同比增长 54.58%至 13.3 万吨，锌产量达到 4.27 万吨》 2025.4.9 2.《行业点评|艾芬豪矿业公布 Kamoa-Kakula ► 生产经营情况 1）铜 2025Q2，1、2、3 期选矿厂共研磨了 362 万吨矿石，生产了 112,009 吨铜，同比增长 11%。2025 年上半年的铜产量共计 245,127 吨。 6 月份，Kamoa-Kakula 一期、二期和三期选矿厂共生产铜 28,14 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes are anticipated to signal a potential interest rate cut in September, with Citigroup predicting a more dovish stance from the Fed [1][3] - The core PCE price index in the U.S. has remained below the 2% target for three consecutive months, providing support for dovish sentiments within the Fed [1][3] - Trump's proposed tariffs on copper (50%) and pharmaceuticals (up to 200%) are expected to disrupt supply chains and could impact inflation, complicating the Fed's decision on rate cuts [1][3] Group 2 - Citigroup maintains that the Fed will begin cutting rates in September, with a total reduction of 125 basis points expected by March next year [3][4] - The imposition of tariffs has led to a significant drop in LME copper inventories by 80%, raising concerns about market distortions and supply chain adjustments [3][4] - Despite the tariff threats, Wall Street has raised its S&P 500 year-end target, with Goldman Sachs increasing its forecast from 6100 to 6600 points, indicating a 5.9% upside potential [3][4] Group 3 - The earnings resilience of S&P 500 companies is expected to exceed expectations, with a projected 4.5% year-over-year increase in Q2 earnings, largely driven by major tech companies [4][6] - The tech sector is experiencing a valuation surge, with Nvidia's market cap approaching $4 trillion, driven by strong revenue growth from its CUDA ecosystem [6] - The market is showing signs of vulnerability, with a narrow breadth of gains concentrated in a few tech stocks, raising the risk of a significant correction [6][8] Group 4 - Investment strategies are suggested to balance risks, such as diversifying into equal-weighted S&P 500 ETFs to mitigate concentration in tech stocks [8] - The potential impact of copper tariffs is seen as beneficial for companies like Freeport-McMoRan, while gold and Bitcoin are recommended as hedges against inflation volatility [8] - The upcoming dates for tariff implementation and Fed meetings are critical for adjusting investment positions in the current market environment [8]