Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The "old-for-new" policy in the gold and jewelry sector is expected to drive a transformation towards "self-indulgent" jewelry consumption. This policy will lower costs for consumers and stimulate demand, particularly among women aged 30-50 for fashionable gold jewelry [2][4] - The domestic tourism market during the Dragon Boat Festival showed a slight increase in travel volume and spending, indicating a recovery trend. However, the overall tourism consumption data was relatively flat, with future policies expected to boost demand [4][15] - The report highlights the performance of various consumer sectors, with notable stock price increases in food and beverage, home appliances, and textile sectors, while some companies experienced declines [4][13][14] Summary by Sections Market Weekly Review - The consumer sector showed mixed performance post-Dragon Boat Festival, with social services and textile sectors leading in growth [4] - Specific stocks such as Junyao Health and Springlight Technology saw significant increases of 24.43% and 28.79% respectively, while companies like Kuaijishan and Midea Group faced declines [4][13][14] Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The report mentions a significant increase in summer travel demand, with a 70% rise in travelers compared to last year, indicating a strong recovery in the tourism sector [15][16] - Companies like Suning and Anta Sports reported substantial sales growth during the holiday period, driven by consumer enthusiasm for new products and promotional activities [15][16] - The report also notes various corporate announcements, including acquisitions and stock sales, which may impact market dynamics [16][18]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Broad-based Index Rotation Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy is based on the weekly change rate of the total sentiment heat (MA2) for broad-based indices. The model selects the index with the highest heat change rate for investment, while staying in cash if the "Other" group has the highest rate [7][12][15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the weekly heat change rate for each broad-based index (CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and "Other") 2. Smooth the weekly change rate using a 2-period moving average (MA2) 3. At the end of each week, invest in the index with the highest MA2 heat change rate. If the "Other" group has the highest rate, remain in cash [8][9][12] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates a systematic approach to capturing short-term sentiment-driven opportunities in broad-based indices [12][15] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Broad-based Index Rotation Strategy - **Annualized Return (2017-Present)**: 8.74% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 23.5% - **2025 YTD Return**: 10.6% [15] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Total Sentiment Heat - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor aggregates the sentiment heat of individual stocks within a broader category (broad-based indices, industries, or concepts) to serve as a proxy for market sentiment [7] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Define the total sentiment heat for individual stocks as the sum of their browsing, watchlist, and click counts 2. Normalize the sentiment heat by dividing it by the total market heat on the same day 3. Multiply the normalized value by 10,000 to scale the indicator within the range [0, 10,000] 4. Aggregate the total sentiment heat of all constituent stocks within a specific category (e.g., broad-based indices, industries, or concepts) [7] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures market sentiment dynamics, particularly at the individual stock level, where mispricing due to limited attention is more pronounced [7] 2. Factor Name: Weekly Heat Change Rate (MA2) - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the weekly change rate of sentiment heat for a specific category, smoothed using a 2-period moving average (MA2) [7][19][27] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the weekly change rate of total sentiment heat for each category (e.g., broad-based indices, industries, or concepts) 2. Apply a 2-period moving average (MA2) to smooth the weekly change rate [19][27] - **Factor Evaluation**: The MA2 smoothing process enhances the stability of the factor, making it suitable for identifying short-term sentiment trends [19][27] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Total Sentiment Heat - **Indicator Range**: [0, 10,000] (normalized and scaled) [7] 2. Weekly Heat Change Rate (MA2) - **Broad-based Indices**: - CSI 500: +2.11% (highest weekly increase) - CSI 1000: -1.54% (lowest weekly decrease) [15] - **Industries (Shenwan Level 1)**: - Top 5 Positive Changes: Communication (+29.1%), Environmental Protection, Computer, Building Materials, Social Services - Top 5 Negative Changes: Automotive, Coal, Transportation, Utilities, Comprehensive (-35.2%) [26] - **Concepts**: - Top 5 Positive Changes: Football Concept (+152.7%), Military Restructuring (+128.7%), Dental Medical (+93.4%), Beer Concept (+90.7%), Digital Currency (+84.5%) [27][30] 3. Heat-based Concept Portfolios - **BOTTOM Portfolio**: - **Annualized Return**: 15.71% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 28.89% - **2025 YTD Return**: 22.3% [32]

Market Overview - A-share market continued to rebound on June 4, with all three major indices opening higher and closing positively, particularly the ChiNext Index which rose over 1% [1][2] - The total trading volume reached 1.18 trillion yuan, with nearly 4,000 stocks rising and over 80 stocks hitting the daily limit [1][2] - The market is currently in a repair phase, supported by a series of domestic policies, limiting the adjustment space [1][5] Sector Performance - The consumer sector saw significant activity, with beauty care, textiles, and retail sectors leading the gains, with increases of 2.63%, 2.53%, and 2.41% respectively [2][3] - Solid-state battery and optical module sectors also performed well, contributing to the overall market rebound [1][2] - A total of 32 stocks reached historical highs, predominantly from the banking, pharmaceutical, and food and beverage sectors [3] Fund Flow - On June 4, the net inflow of main funds in the CSI 300 exceeded 3 billion yuan, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [3][4] - Among the 13 sectors with net inflows, electronics, communications, and power equipment led with inflows of 22.99 billion yuan, 13.48 billion yuan, and 11.00 billion yuan respectively [4] - Conversely, sectors such as defense, pharmaceuticals, and automotive experienced net outflows [4] Investment Strategy - Analysts suggest focusing on high-performance consumer leaders and traditional companies with new consumption thinking, as they may benefit from structural opportunities [3][5] - The current market environment is characterized by a focus on safety and stability, with recommendations to invest in dividend-paying stocks and technology sectors [5][6] - The upcoming Lujiazui Forum is expected to announce significant financial policies that could support market expectations [5]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese market, U.S.-China trade relations, and various sectors including consumer goods, technology, and dividend stocks. Core Points and Arguments 1. **U.S.-China Tariff Concerns** The U.S. has increased tariff threats against China, particularly targeting AI and chip design software exports, which may disrupt trade negotiations and worsen U.S.-China relations [1][3][4] 2. **Short-term Tariff Impact** The likelihood of imposing new tariffs in the short term is low due to the U.S. retail sector's peak ordering season, with a 90-day grace period before any potential tariffs take effect. However, risks may rise post-grace period [5][6] 3. **Judicial Intervention in Trade** The U.S. judicial system's involvement in trade disputes may gradually reduce the extremity of tariff increases, indicating a potential shift in tariff authority back to Congress in the long term [6] 4. **Dividend Stocks in June** June typically sees seasonal pressure on dividend stocks due to profit-taking, leading to lower excess returns and win rates despite being a peak dividend distribution period [7][8] 5. **Long-term Outlook for Dividend Stocks** Despite short-term volatility, dividend stocks remain strategically significant in a low-interest-rate environment, with high dividend yields observed in indices [9] 6. **Focus on Emerging Consumption Sectors** The market is currently focused on service consumption, new consumption, and biomedicine, which are supported by policies and show strong performance. Notable companies in these sectors are less crowded, presenting investment opportunities [10][11] 7. **Weakness in Traditional Consumer Sectors** Traditional consumer sectors like home appliances and automobiles are underperforming due to declining consumer interest and the cessation of government subsidies, leading to concerns about their future growth [12][13] 8. **Technology Sector Trends** The technology sector is expected to rebound in the short term, with a long-term focus on significant capital expenditures and breakthroughs in areas like AI and robotics [14] 9. **Anti-Tariff Themes** The anti-tariff theme is performing steadily, with sectors like rare earths benefiting. The market is gradually desensitizing to tariff concerns, avoiding significant volatility [15] 10. **Recommended Industries** Key recommended industries include beauty care, biomedicine, computing, non-ferrous metals, social services, agriculture, defense, and retail, all of which are seen as having good growth potential [16][17] 11. **Market Outlook** The market is expected to remain in a narrow fluctuation pattern, supported by domestic demand resilience, with a focus on service consumption and emerging sectors as key growth drivers [18]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Hong Kong Stock Multi-Factor Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model integrates four categories of factors: technical, capital flow, fundamental, and analyst expectations, to evaluate Hong Kong Stock Connect constituent stocks[38][39] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Select Hong Kong Stock Connect constituent stocks as the sample universe 2. Construct four categories of factors: - **Technical factors**: Indicators derived from price and volume data - **Capital flow factors**: Metrics based on fund flow data, such as net inflow - **Fundamental factors**: Metrics like valuation ratios (e.g., PE, PB) and profitability indicators (e.g., ROE) - **Analyst expectation factors**: Metrics based on analyst ratings and earnings forecasts 3. Combine these factors into a composite score for each stock 4. Rank stocks based on their composite scores and select the top 20 stocks to form the portfolio[38][39][40] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong performance in historical backtesting, with significant excess returns over the benchmark[38][40] 2. Model Name: Hong Kong Stock Preferred 20 Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: This portfolio is constructed monthly by selecting the top 20 stocks with the highest composite scores from the multi-factor model, using equal weighting[40] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. At the end of each month, rank stocks based on their composite scores from the multi-factor model 2. Select the top 20 stocks 3. Allocate equal weights to each stock in the portfolio 4. Use the Hong Kong Composite Index (HKD, 930930.CSI) as the benchmark for performance comparison[40] - **Model Evaluation**: The portfolio has shown robust performance over the long term, with a high excess annualized return and a stable risk-return profile[40][44] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Hong Kong Stock Multi-Factor Model - **Excess Annualized Return**: 13.3% (2015.1–2025.5)[40][44] - **Excess Annualized Volatility**: 13.4%[44] - **Excess Sharpe Ratio**: 1.0[44] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 18.2%[44] 2. Hong Kong Stock Preferred 20 Portfolio - **May 2025 Monthly Return**: 2.44%[40] - **May 2025 Excess Return**: -2.36% (Benchmark return: 4.80%)[40] - **Excess Annualized Return**: 13.3% (2015.1–2025.5)[40][44] - **Excess Annualized Volatility**: 13.4%[44] - **Excess Sharpe Ratio**: 1.0[44] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 18.2%[44] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Technical Factors - **Factor Construction Idea**: Derived from price and volume data to capture market trends and momentum[38][39] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate indicators such as moving averages, RSI, and MACD 2. Normalize and rank the indicators across the stock universe 3. Combine the normalized scores into a composite technical factor score[38][39] 2. Factor Name: Capital Flow Factors - **Factor Construction Idea**: Based on fund flow data to identify stocks with strong capital inflows[38][39] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Measure net fund inflows for each stock 2. Normalize and rank the net inflow data 3. Combine the normalized scores into a composite capital flow factor score[38][39] 3. Factor Name: Fundamental Factors - **Factor Construction Idea**: Focused on valuation and profitability metrics to identify undervalued stocks with strong fundamentals[38][39] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate valuation ratios (e.g., PE, PB) and profitability indicators (e.g., ROE) 2. Normalize and rank these metrics across the stock universe 3. Combine the normalized scores into a composite fundamental factor score[38][39] 4. Factor Name: Analyst Expectation Factors - **Factor Construction Idea**: Based on analyst ratings and earnings forecasts to capture market sentiment and expectations[38][39] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Collect analyst ratings and earnings forecast data 2. Normalize and rank the data 3. Combine the normalized scores into a composite analyst expectation factor score[38][39] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Technical Factors - **Performance**: Demonstrated strong predictive power in identifying stocks with upward momentum[38][39] 2. Capital Flow Factors - **Performance**: Effective in capturing stocks with significant fund inflows, indicating strong market interest[38][39] 3. Fundamental Factors - **Performance**: Successfully identified undervalued stocks with robust financial performance[38][39] 4. Analyst Expectation Factors - **Performance**: Provided valuable insights into market sentiment and future earnings potential[38][39]

2025 年 06 月 02 日 耐用消费产业行业研究 买入（维持评级） 行业周报 证券研究报告 国金证券研究所 分析师：赵中平（执业 S1130524050003） zhaozhongping＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：杨欣（执业 S1130522080010） yangxin1＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：王刚（执业 S1130524080001） wang_g＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：张杨桓（执业 S1130522090001） zhangyanghuan＠gjzq.com.cn 消费中观策略&投资建议 ①基本面有向好变化的低位传统核心资产，资本市场逻辑是高低切，新消费已经将表观 30-60XPE 的高标估值体 系确立，传统核心资产的估值水位也有望在流动性宽松叠加公募基准欠配背景下向上修复，尤其是在地产高频数 据企稳经济有自发筑底倾向&传统消费 25Q2 开始财报基数下降景气度增速有自发回升趋势背景下，建议关注安踏 体育，雅迪控股，裕同科技等；②坚定持有兑现度较高的新消费龙头，建议关注泡泡玛特，康耐特光学等。预计 消费类资金有望向两个方向切换；③积极拥抱新消费赛道或具备新消费思维的传统 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the resilience of domestic demand in China, which is expected to provide a bottom support for the market despite short-term tariff concerns [1] - The manufacturing PMI showed signs of recovery in May, with improved export orders and strong performance in new consumption and consumer goods [1] - The focus for investment should be on sectors that benefit from domestic demand, including beauty care, agriculture, defense, non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and retail [1] Group 2 - The market is currently experiencing a limited adjustment space due to a lack of significant external volatility and ongoing domestic policy support [2] - Key investment themes include high-margin assets, technology sector opportunities, and consumer sectors boosted by policy incentives [2] - The article suggests that the technology sector remains a long-term investment focus, with short-term attention on undervalued segments [2] Group 3 - A-share market is currently insulated from macroeconomic disturbances, with policies in place to manage risks and support market stability [3] - The technology sector is expected to be a key driver for a structural bull market in the medium term, despite short-term adjustments [3] - There is a continued focus on sectors like pharmaceuticals and precious metals, as well as opportunities in the automotive supply chain [3] Group 4 - Three potential triggers could help A-shares escape the current narrow trading range: developments in US-China relations, increased fiscal spending, and advancements in the technology sector [4] - The article highlights the importance of maintaining strong financing levels in local and national debt to support market activity [4] - The technology sector, particularly AI-related stocks, is seen as having the potential for a rebound after recent adjustments [4] Group 5 - The market is expected to experience a period of index fluctuation, with a focus on quality indices due to stable economic fundamentals [5] - The article notes that the current funding environment is less favorable for high-concentration small-cap stocks, suggesting a preference for larger, quality stocks [5] - Overall, the market is likely to remain in a state of fluctuation, with a bias towards larger, more stable investments [5] Group 6 - The technology growth style is now considered to be at a favorable entry point after recent adjustments, with a focus on sectors like military and innovative pharmaceuticals [6] - The article indicates that the market's trading characteristics are heavily influenced by external uncertainties, particularly regarding tariffs [6] - Emphasis is placed on the importance of trading indicators in navigating the current market environment [6] Group 7 - The article suggests that external risks have lessened but warns of potential volatility from US policy changes [7] - Domestic policies are expected to continue supporting the market, with consumption remaining a key driver of economic recovery [7] - Investment themes include domestic consumption, domestic substitution, and low allocation funds, with a defensive market style anticipated [7] Group 8 - The market is currently in a repair phase, with trading sentiment affected by fluctuating US tariff policies and slow trade negotiations [8] - The article highlights the growing influence of long-term capital and regulatory support in stabilizing the A-share market [8] - Recommended sectors for investment include precious metals, public utilities, new consumption, and AI applications [8] Group 9 - Recent high-frequency economic data indicates a weakening trend, which may limit stock market gains [9] - The article notes that certain commodity prices have fallen below last year's levels, and there is a decline in retail financing activity [9] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains positive, driven by policy support and changes in the AI and new consumption sectors [9] Group 10 - The article discusses the potential for a new "East rises, West falls" trading strategy, driven by a weakening dollar and favorable conditions for non-US assets [10] - It emphasizes that the technology growth sector, particularly AI and related innovations, will be a key focus for upcoming trading opportunities [10] - The article suggests that the upcoming months will see significant developments in technology sectors, which could catalyze market movements [10]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 报告摘要 5月A股港股市场有所回暖 5月A股主要指数涨跌分化，行业端涨多跌少。受风险偏好波动等因素影响，5月（截至27日），A股主要指数 涨跌出现分化，其中万得全A涨幅最大，而科创50跌幅最大。行业端涨多跌少，轻工制造、综合、纺织服饰等 行业表现较好，而电子、计算机、房地产、社会服务等行业表现相对较差。 5月港股市场震荡上行。5月受海外扰动缓和、国内风险偏好回暖等因素影响，港股市场整体走势震荡上行。截 至2025年5月27日，恒生香港35、恒生指数、恒生综合指数、恒生中国企业指数、恒生科技的涨幅分别为 7.6%、5.7%、5.3%、4.9%、1.9%。 A股观点：继续关注三类资产 政策的持续支持以及中长期资金积极流入背景下， A股市场有望震荡上行。当前A股市场的估值处于2010年以 来的均值附近，而随着政策的积极发力，中长期资金带来的增量资金或将持续流入市场，对资本市场形成托 底，A股市场有望震荡上行。 配置方向上，关注三类资产。方向一：稳定类资产，如高股息、黄金。稳定类资产能够在市场面临不确定时提 供确定性。方向二：产业链自主可控。在"双循环"新发展格局和全球产业链重构的双重驱 ...

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced a decline last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.94% to 3348.37 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.85%, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.18%. The total trading volume in the A-share market was 1.18 trillion RMB, with over 4200 stocks declining. Only the automotive, pharmaceutical, and basic chemical industries saw gains, while the computer industry led the declines [1][6] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.24%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 0.09%. Internationally, all three major US indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down by 0.61%, the S&P 500 down by 0.67%, and the Nasdaq down by 1.00%. European stock markets also saw declines, while the Asia-Pacific markets showed mixed results [1][6] Important News - The People's Bank of China announced that funds raised from overseas listings, as well as funds from the reduction or transfer of shares, should generally be returned to the domestic market. This is part of efforts to improve and unify the management of cross-border funds related to domestic companies directly listed overseas [2][7] - US President Trump suggested imposing a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1, 2025, although products manufactured in the US would be exempt from these tariffs [2][7] Industry Analysis - The first quarter of 2025 showed a rebound in A-share performance, with a year-on-year increase of 89.76% in net profit attributable to shareholders, marking a significant improvement compared to the previous quarter [8] - The retail sales of consumer goods in April 2025 increased by 5.1% year-on-year, although the growth rate slightly declined compared to March. The total retail sales reached 37,174 billion RMB [12][16] - The performance of various sectors showed divergence, with the consumer goods sector benefiting from domestic consumption policies, particularly in the automotive and home appliance industries [10][11][16] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with strong growth potential, such as technology and consumer goods, particularly in the automotive and home appliance industries, which are expected to benefit from expanding domestic demand [11][16] - The report highlights the importance of companies with stable profit models and core competitive advantages, especially in the context of improving market sentiment and reducing short-term volatility [11]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the consumer sector, indicating a potential recovery and valuation improvement in the industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The consumer sector showed mixed performance in the week of May 19-23, with notable gains in home appliances and textiles, while food and beverage sectors experienced declines. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.18% during this period [4]. - In April, retail sales increased by 5.1% year-on-year, with significant growth in optional consumption and durable goods. The report highlights that essential consumption, particularly in grain and oil products, maintained high growth rates [4]. - The cleaning appliance market remains robust, with significant sales growth in robotic vacuums and floor washers, indicating a trend towards premiumization and market expansion driven by technological advancements [4]. Market Weekly Review - The consumer sector's weekly performance varied, with home appliances up by 1.21% and food and beverage down by 1.27%. Key stocks that surged included Kuaijishan (+31.37%) and Liren Lizhuang (+53.87%), while stocks like Anji Food (-10.29%) and Huafang Co. (-23.78%) faced declines [4][14][15]. - April's retail sales data showed a 5.1% year-on-year increase, with essential goods like grain and oil growing by 14.0%, and optional goods like cosmetics and jewelry seeing increases of 7.2% and 25.3%, respectively [4][16]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The Ministry of Commerce reported that retail sales of home appliances have seen double-digit growth for eight consecutive months, with a 38.8% year-on-year increase in April [16]. - Various cities are implementing policies to boost consumer spending, including subsidies for purchasing home appliances and digital products [17][18]. - Companies like Midea and Hisense are making strategic moves, with Midea's former executive joining Hisense to lead air conditioning business development [19][20].