投资策略 +-[Table_MainInfo]春节消费温和复苏，市场呈现资金回流 ――A 股市场投资策略周报 | 分析师： | 宋亦威 | 月 | SAC NO： S1150514080001 2026 | 26 | | | 年 | 日 | | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Analysis] 证券分析师 | | | | | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： | | | | | | | 宋亦威 | | | | | 市场回顾，节后 月 月 日），重要指数纷纷收涨； ⚫ 个交易日（2 24 日-2 26 | 3 | | | | | | 022-23861608 | | | | | 其中，上证综指收涨 1.58%，创业板指收涨 2.11%；风格层面，沪深 | | | | 300 | | | songyw@bhzq.com | | | | | 收涨 1.43%，中证 500 收涨 3.10%。成交方面有所放量，两市统计区间 | | | | | | | | | | | | 内成交 ...

ccmn沪镍走势：今日午盘后沪期镍小跌，沪期镍主力月2605合约开盘报141000元/吨，盘中最高报 141870元/吨，最低价报139500元/吨，收盘报141040元/吨，下跌480元/吨，跌幅为0.34%，沪镍主力月 2605主力合约成交量368199手。 据长江有色属网统计：2月26日ccmn长江综合1#镍价129200元/吨-131300元/吨，均价报130250元/吨，较 前一日价格持平，长江现货1#镍报129200元/吨-131400元/吨，均价报130300元/吨，较前一日价格持 平，广东现货镍报131500元/吨-131900元/吨，均价报131700元/吨，较前一日价格持平。 ccmn镍市分析：宏观面，今日镍价震荡走弱，主要受宏观情绪转弱与基本面疲软现实的双重拖累。宏 观层面，海外美元虽偏弱但美联储降息预期反复，美股板块分化导致资金从工业金属流出；国内节后政 策利好已被市场消化，避险情绪有所升温。产业层面，春节后下游不锈钢及新能源领域复工复产节奏缓 慢，多以消化现有库存为主，新增订单与集中补库需求不足，"弱现实"格局对镍价形成直接压制。今日 长江现货镍价回调下跌。 镍供需现状 当前镍市呈现 ...

图表1：2025年有色金属价格涨跌幅与预期差异 在传统的投资叙事中，有色金属常被贴上"周期躁动"的标签——价格波动与美联储加息、地缘冲突深度绑定，与房地产基 建的起伏同频共振，被笼统地称为"煤飞色舞"。 然而，这种刻板印象正在瓦解。中证工业有色金属主题指数（H11059）通过编制方案的精准提纯，将一个与传统有色截然 不同的投资逻辑推向前台：工业金属正从"宏观波动率的买单者"，转变为"制造业升级的卖铲人"。 上图清晰地揭示了有色金属板块的内部分化：贵金属的上涨由避险情绪和降息预期驱动，实际涨幅远超年初预期；而工业 金属的上涨则更多反映制造业复苏与供给约束的共振，涨幅基本符合市场预期。 这种分化恰恰印证了"工业有色"与"传统有色"的底层逻辑差异——前者交易开工率，后者交易避险情绪。铜作为工业金属 的"风向标"，其31%的稳健涨幅，与指数中34.4%的权重形成呼应：持有工业有色指数，本质上是在做多中国制造业的韧 性。 要理解工业有色的独特性，首先要看清它"剔除"了什么。 传统有色金属是一个庞杂的集合，既包含具有货币属性的黄金、白银，也包含工业原料铜、铝、铅锌，还包含战略小金属 稀土、钨、钼。这个篮子的核心问题在于— ...

Group 1 - Nvidia's Q4 performance has exceeded expectations, leading to a surge in AI hardware stocks in the A-share market, with semiconductor ETFs in China and South Korea nearing their daily limit up, and electricity-related ETFs rising by 3% and 2.9% respectively [1] - A significant shift is occurring where technology growth is increasingly reliant on physical assets, marking a departure from the previous dominance of financial assets over physical assets [2][3] - The HALO concept, which combines heavy assets with low obsolescence, is gaining traction, indicating a paradigm shift in investment strategies towards assets that are less susceptible to technological changes [2][3] Group 2 - The rise in physical asset values is driven by geopolitical tensions and resource nationalism, which have made these assets more valuable as a safe haven compared to software and light asset industries [4] - The South Korean stock market has seen unprecedented growth, with the composite index surpassing 6000 points for the first time and achieving a year-to-date increase of 49.67% [4][5] - A-share market trends reflect a similar "physical asset supremacy," with significant gains in sectors such as construction materials, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals [7] Group 3 - ETFs with high physical asset content have dominated the performance charts, with several indices, including semiconductor and oil and gas resources, showing gains of over 25% year-to-date [10] - In the first two trading days of the year, A-share financing clients purchased a total of 57.5 billion yuan, indicating strong capital inflow into physical assets [13] - The top sectors for net buying include electronics, non-ferrous metals, and power equipment, highlighting investor interest in HALO stocks [17][18] Group 4 - High inflows into HALO-focused ETFs have been observed, with significant net purchases in gold, semiconductor materials, and electricity equipment ETFs [20] - The macroeconomic environment is favoring heavy asset industries, as manufacturing PMI has rebounded, surpassing service sector PMI [22] - Tech giants are projected to spend approximately $1.5 trillion on capital expenditures from 2023 to 2026, with $650 billion expected this year alone, indicating a strong focus on infrastructure investments [22]

Core Insights - The market is experiencing a rapid rotation of themes, with a notable recovery in sentiment as evidenced by 61 stocks hitting the daily limit up, and 9 stocks in a continuous rise, including 4 stocks with three or more consecutive limit ups [1] Group 1: Market Performance - A total of 61 stocks reached the daily limit up, with 9 stocks in a continuous rise, and 4 stocks achieving three or more consecutive limit ups [1] - The limit-up rate for stocks in consecutive rises was 22.22%, excluding ST and delisted stocks [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The market is characterized by a high-speed rotation of themes, with strong performance in AI-related sectors such as computing power leasing, generator concepts, PCB, and optical fiber cables, leading to over 30 related stocks hitting the limit up [1] - The cyclical sector showed signs of adjustment, but still maintained strong activity, with companies like Jinzhengdai and Chengxing Co. achieving three consecutive limit ups in the chemical sector [1] Group 3: Notable Stocks - YN Energy Holdings achieved a significant milestone by becoming the first stock to break through five consecutive limit ups since February 2026, marking an important moment for overall sentiment recovery [1] - AI-related technology stocks performed strongly, with companies like Huasheng Tiancai and Taijia Co. achieving two limit ups in four days, while core stock Runze Technology surged over 17% [1] - Other notable performances include Falsheng in the optical fiber cable sector achieving four consecutive limit ups, and Tiangrun Industrial in the generator concept sector achieving two limit ups in three days [1]

春节假期至今，海外黄金、白银为代表的贵金属市场整体呈现震荡偏强格局。北京时间2月24日，伦敦金黄金盘中突破5240美元/盎司。有专业分析认为，本 轮板块上涨的核心逻辑在于"避险"与"滞胀交易"两条主线共振，在此背景下，如何高效关注有色龙头？ 一、避险逻辑：宏观不确定性构建底层支撑 近期全球宏观层面多重不确定性因素叠加，成为有色金属（含贵金属）价格的核心底层支撑力。一方面，美国关税政策上演剧烈反转，美国最高法院裁定特 朗普政府大规模关税措施违法后，特朗普政府迅速切换至122法案并将税率上调至15%，这种政策反复意味着贸易摩擦将长期化，后续政策仍充满变数，短 期内或对市场风险偏好形成压制。 另一方面，地缘不确定性加剧，俄乌谈判未取得实质性进展，美伊对峙甚至面临军事冲突风险，地缘政治的不确定性推升了全球避险情绪。 高盛分析师表示，在宏观与地缘风险上升的驱动下，投资者分散投资"硬资产"的意愿或已成为本轮商品行情的关键推动力。硬资产通常指、、基础设施等有 形实物资产，而在此轮配置转移中，贵金属与铜或更具价格上涨潜力。 二、海外滞胀交易：通胀与增长放缓强化上涨动力 当地时间2月20日，美国发布数据显示，2025年美国全年 ...

中信证券有色金属行业首席分析师敖翀认为，长趋势尚未结束，但短期风险正在快速聚集。对于投资者 而言，当前更合适的策略是"持有但不盲目追高"，若涨得过快可考虑阶段性减持，调整才是值得关注的 进场时机。敖翀进一步指出，选股需结合市场阶段：趋势确立时，龙头公司确定性最强；风险偏好较高 的投资者则可关注具备"量增价涨"逻辑的成长型公司。同时，他也提示可关注"背离型"交易机会，即当 商品价格持续上涨而股价未涨时，往往可能是阶段性的布局窗口。（21财经） ...

百色以最大诚意和最实举措，主动做好协调服务，及时解决企业"急难愁盼"和急需解决的堵点问题，高 效落实要素保障，以优良的营商环境厚植投资兴业沃土，吸引了众多企业到百色投资兴业。"十四五"期 间，全市新增上规工业企业459家，开工建设重大工业项目330个以上，竣工投产重大工业项目260个以 上，完成工业投资超过1031亿元，年均增长16.3%。 2025年，广西百色市以创新驱动为引领，以项目建设为支撑，全力扩大工业投资，优化服务保障，推动 工业经济总量快速增长、结构持续优化、动能加快转换，工业投资增长14.3%，工业总产值突破2500亿 元大关，成为全区第五个工业产值超2000亿元的设区市，总量较2020年增长106.7%。 "十四五"以来，百色充分利用资源禀赋，聚焦重点发展的新型生态铝产业、林业产业、新能源、新材料 等"四大主导产业"开展精准招商，先后引进中车新能源装备制造、中南光电光伏发电产业园、上海榕融 氧化铝连续纤维制品等重点产业项目超290个，累计完成工业投资1000亿元，主要涉及有色金属、新能 源、新材料、节能环保、装备制造、林木加工等行业。 为着力构建现代产业体系，百色始终坚持围绕加快传统产业高端化 ...

招商证券此前表示，节后融资余额有望回流，加上两会前风险偏好有望升温，节后A股资金面有望持续充裕。业绩真空期和政策回暖期给了A股接下来一段 时间进行产业趋势投资创造了良好的环境。 ETF方面，今年1月下半月，A股股票型ETF市场规模曾出现一波快速下降，从4万亿元以上回落至3.1万亿元附近。但自2月以来，股票型ETF市场规模变化重 归平稳。截至2月25日，股票型ETF资产规模报3.18万亿元，持续维持平稳态势。 股票型ETF市场近一年来规模变化 新华财经上海2月26日电（林郑宏）节后开市来的数据显示，A股市场呈现明显回暖态势。截至2月25日收盘，沪指本周累计上涨1.6%，深成指上涨2.66%， 创业板指上涨2.41%，三大股指均稳步走高。A股平均股价则上涨1.62%，报30.07元/股，再度站上30元/股整数关口。 在交投方面，节后首个交易日（2月24日，周二），沪深两市成交额即回到2万亿元上方，报2.2万亿元，周三进一步放大至2.46万亿元，均高于节前最后一周 的平均日成交额（约2.09万亿元）。 杠杆资金节后积极入场股票型ETF资产规模维持平稳 交投活跃背后，是杠杆资金的再度入场。数据显示，节后首个交易日，A ...

Group 1 - The industrial non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing fluctuations, with related ETFs showing a decline, specifically the Tianhong Non-Ferrous Metals ETF (159157) which fell by 0.68% during trading, with a transaction volume of 204 million yuan and a turnover rate of 9.07% [1] - The Tianhong Non-Ferrous Metals ETF has seen a net subscription of over 70 million units during the trading session, marking it as the top performer in the Shenzhen market. Over the past eight trading days, it has attracted a net inflow of 1.075 billion yuan, reaching a total fund size of 2.265 billion yuan as of February 25, 2026, a new high since its listing [1] - The ETF covers a wide range of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, and rare earths, providing exposure to precious metals (safe-haven), strategic metals (growth), and industrial metals (recovery), which allows for better capturing of the beta trends across the entire sector [1] Group 2 - The industrial non-ferrous metals sector is influenced by multiple news factors, including the Shanghai government's new real estate policies aimed at boosting the market, which is expected to positively impact the demand for copper and aluminum [2] - The U.S. plans to set reference prices for critical minerals, including germanium and gallium, leading to a reassessment of the value of scarce minerals in the market [2] - Zimbabwe's announcement to suspend lithium concentrate exports, along with increased mineral controls in countries like Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, has heightened global supply chain tensions, while post-Spring Festival recovery in downstream enterprises is gradually releasing inventory demand, supporting metal prices [2]