1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - Aluminum: ★★☆, suggesting a clear upward trend and the market is in the process of rallying [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, showing a bullish tendency but with limited operability on the market [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Tin: ★★☆, representing a clear upward trend and the market is in the process of rallying [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals and related chemical products, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these factors [1][2][4][5][6] 3. Summary by Metals Copper - On Monday, SHFE copper increased in position and continued to rise. The spot price followed the increase. The premium of Shanghai copper and Guangdong copper changed, and the premium of Yangshan copper expanded. The refined - scrap price difference converged rapidly. The social inventory increased slightly over the weekend. There is a probability that the upward trend of SHFE copper will pause this week. If certain conditions are met, the copper price at a record high may回调. Long positions can be held based on the MA5 moving average. If there is strong position volume cooperation, the upward trend of SHFE copper may expand to 95,000 - 97,000 yuan [1] Aluminum - Today, SHFE aluminum first declined and then rose in a high - level shock. The spot discounts in East China, Central China, and South China expanded. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods was basically flat compared with last Thursday. Non - ferrous metals are still the focus of funds. The upward trend of aluminum price is oscillating upward, but the short - term fundamental contradiction is limited. It is not advisable to chase the rise. The price of cast aluminum alloy has limited follow - up increase, and attention should be paid to the possible narrowing space at the end of the year. The supply of alumina is in an oversupply situation, and it is mainly in a weak operation [2] Zinc - The expectation of domestic smelter production cuts is strong, and the expectation of overseas smelter production increase in the fourth quarter is mediocre. The supply - side constraint of zinc ingots is strengthening, supporting the upward movement of the disk. The U.S. employment data is weak, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December is strong. Zinc is not considered for short - selling allocation. The export window of zinc ingots is open, and SHFE zinc is expected to test the annual line and may even break through it [2] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The decline of SHFE nickel accelerated, and the market trading was active with increasing positions. The stainless - steel market was sluggish. The mainstream stainless - steel mills cancelled the price limit and then lowered the price. The supply side actively cut prices to sell goods, but the trading volume was cold. The inventory of pure nickel, nickel iron, and stainless steel changed. The bullish themes of SHFE nickel are exhausted, and the nickel price is in a weak operation with a downward - shifting center of gravity [4] Tin - The short - term two - way fluctuation range of SHFE tin is large. The MA5 moving average can be used as the boundary of strength. The supply - loss themes and actual supply constraints in 2025 are the core basis for raising the average tin price. In 2026, especially after the Spring Festival peak season, there is a high probability of a supply - side turning point, and the recovery speed is faster than demand. The social inventory of SMM tin increased. The LME 0 - 3 month spot premium decreased. The visible inventory in the two markets is neutral. Attention should be paid to the high - level risk, and a hedging strategy is still needed for medium - long - term supply - demand allocation. It is inclined that the tin price is approaching the adjustment time point [4] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate fluctuated at a high level, and the market trading was active. The downstream battery factory orders increased due to the continuous progress of pure - electric heavy - truck projects, the strong performance of the traditional vehicle sales peak season, and the short supply of energy - storage batteries. Some phosphoric - iron - lithium enterprises promoted price increases, but the increase amount was low. The total market inventory decreased. The price of Australian ore strengthened again. The sustainability of actual inventory and policy increments are the focus of the market, and it is regarded as a short - term strong - side fluctuation [5] Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon has fallen to the key support level at the lower edge of the range. From the supply side, the marginal reduction effect of the dry - season production cuts in the southwest region is expected to weaken after December, and the supply pressure may gradually stabilize. From the demand side, both the silicone and polysilicon industries face demand contraction pressure in December. The inventory reduction of industrial silicon at the end of the year is still under pressure. In the short term, the orange weather warning and safety - production notice in Xinjiang may support the market sentiment, but if the actual production cuts of local factories are limited, the price may further decline [5] Polysilicon - The fundamentals of polysilicon have significantly weakened. On the supply side, the production - cut intensity of upstream enterprises has not met market expectations, and the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the silicon - wafer production plan in December decreased by 16% month - on - month. The polysilicon inventory continued to accumulate, and the downstream's willingness to accept the spot purchase price of polysilicon decreased. The current spot market is mainly supported by leading enterprises' price - holding. The announcement of new brands of polysilicon by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange last Friday had a negative impact on the market, and subsequent warehouse - receipt generation needs to be tracked [6]

有色金属周报-锌 下游观望情绪较重，锌价上方空间或有限 2025年12月8日 研究所 祁玉蓉 从业资格号：F03100031 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021060 TEL：010-8229 5006 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观：美联储降息预期增强，市场风险偏好提升，加之国 | | | | | 内政治局会议召开，宏观情绪整体偏暖。 | | | |  | 原料端：趋紧。国产周度TC均价环比降低200元/金属吨至 | | | | | 1,850元/金属吨，进口锌精矿指数环比下降3.5美元/干吨至 | | | | | 57.75美元/干吨。12月国内炼厂减产规模进一步扩大，对 | | | | | 锌精矿需求有所减少，但国内锌精矿供给同样偏紧，矿端 | | | | | 紧缺状况未见缓解，预计12月TC延续跌势。 | 宏观情绪偏暖，叠加供给端收缩， | | |  | 成本利润：TC持续下调，产业链利润再次从炼厂端转至矿 | 锌价走势偏强，但随着锌价不断 | 下方支撑稳 | | | 端，上周锌价走势偏强，加之副产品收益补充 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index is expected to rise steadily with a shifting center of gravity due to weekend positive news and improved market confidence [20]. - The bond market is showing a differentiated performance, with the ultra - long end facing uncertainties and the medium - short end having limited room for a "super - oversold rebound" [23]. - In the agricultural product market, most varieties are under pressure or in a volatile situation, affected by factors such as supply and demand and reports [26][27]. - The black metal market is volatile, with steel prices affected by factors like environmental protection and demand, and the prices of double - coking and iron ore showing different trends [58][62][64]. - The non - ferrous metal market is also volatile, with gold and silver prices likely to fluctuate more due to the focus on the Fed's signal, and copper prices rising due to supply concerns [68][70][78]. - The energy and chemical market is generally in a state of shock, with factors such as geopolitical disturbances, supply and demand, and cost affecting prices [112][113][117]. - The shipping market's container shipping is expected to have a short - term high - level shock, with attention paid to factors such as the increase in shipping company prices and the improvement of cargo volume [108][109]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Last week, the market bottomed out and rebounded, and on Friday, insurance and brokerage firms boosted the index. The stock index is expected to rise steadily with a shifting center of gravity. The trading strategies include going long with a light position, conducting IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using a bullish spread option strategy [20][21]. Bond Futures - The bond market showed a further differentiated performance last week. The ultra - long end was weak, and the medium - short end was relatively stable. The trading strategy is to wait and see on the long - side and pay attention to the potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities of the TF contract [23][24]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indexes declined. The USDA is expected to see a decrease in corn and wheat planting and an increase in soybean planting. The market may be under pressure from the report, and the trading strategy is to lay out a small number of short positions [26][27]. Sugar - The international sugar price is oscillating, and the domestic sugar price is weak. The Brazilian sugar production is approaching the end of the season, and the supply pressure is gradually easing. The domestic sugar production cost is high, providing some support. The trading strategy is to wait and see on the long - side and sell put options at low prices [30][31]. Oilseeds and Oils - The prices of CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil showed different trends. The palm oil production in Malaysia decreased in November, but the export was weak. The domestic soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing, and the rapeseed oil is expected to continue to reduce inventory. The trading strategy is to conduct high - low - band trading on the long - side [33][34][35]. Corn/Corn Starch - The CBOT corn futures declined. Russia has reduced the export tariff on corn to zero. The domestic corn spot is strong, but the futures may have room for a decline. The trading strategy is to go long on the 03 contract on dips and short on rallies, and to narrow the spread between 01 corn and starch [36][39]. Live Pigs - The live pig price showed a rebound, but the overall supply pressure still exists. The trading strategy is to wait and see and sell wide - straddle options [40][41]. Peanuts - The peanut spot price is stable, but the futures price is oscillating downward. The trading strategy is to short the 01 contract on rallies and conduct a 15 - contract reverse arbitrage [43][44]. Eggs - The egg demand is average, and the price has declined. The short - term is expected to fluctuate in a range, and the long - side can be considered for the far - month contracts. The trading strategy is to wait and see on the long - side [46][48]. Apples - The apple cold - storage inventory is low, providing support for the price. The trading strategy is to expect high - level oscillations and wait and see [49][51][52]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The ICE cotton futures declined. The supply of new cotton is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be mainly oscillating. The trading strategy is to wait and see [53][55]. Black Metals Steel - The market sentiment is fluctuating, and steel prices are oscillating. Affected by environmental protection and demand, the short - term is expected to be in a weak - shock state. The trading strategy is to go short on rallies and conduct spread trading [57][58][59]. Double - Coking - The sentiment is weak, waiting for the start of winter storage. The short - term is expected to continue to be weak, but the downward space is limited. The trading strategy is to stop profiting on short positions [60][62]. Iron Ore - The price is expected to be mainly weak. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak. The trading strategy is to take a short - side view [63][64]. Ferroalloys - The price rebounds in the short - term due to cost, but the upward space is limited by demand. The trading strategy is to wait and see on the long - side and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [65][66]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - After the release of the PCE data, the prices fluctuated. The market is focusing on the Fed's signal, and the price volatility is expected to increase. The trading strategy is to pay attention to the support level of gold and go long on silver cautiously [68][70][72]. Platinum and Palladium - Platinum is recommended to go long on dips, and palladium is expected to oscillate. The trading strategy is to go long on platinum, conduct a long - platinum - short - palladium spread, and buy out - of - the - money call options for platinum [73][74][75]. Copper - The copper price rose due to concerns about non - US long - term supply. The trading strategy is to hold long positions and pay attention to cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities [76][78][79]. Alumina - The price is expected to be weak before the expiration of warehouse receipts. The trading strategy is to wait and see [80][83]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The price is expected to be strong, with obvious fundamental support. The trading strategy is to go long [84]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The price follows the aluminum price. The trading strategy is to wait and see [86]. Zinc - The price is in a wide - range oscillation. The trading strategy is to wait and see on the long - side [88][91][92]. Lead - The price is in a range - bound oscillation. The trading strategy is to hold long positions and be vigilant against macro - factors [93][94]. Nickel - The oversupply is narrowing, leading to a rebound in the price. The trading strategy is to test the resistance on the long - side and sell out - of - the - money call options [95][97]. Stainless Steel - The price is in a weak - shock state, waiting for policy stimulus. The trading strategy is to wait and see on the long - side [98][99]. Industrial Silicon - Due to environmental pressure in the northwest, the price may rebound in the short - term. The trading strategy is to stop profiting on short positions [100]. Polysilicon - With the increase in delivery brands, the price is expected to be weak in the short - term. The trading strategy is to go short on the long - side and use a double - buy option strategy [102][103]. Lithium Carbonate - The supply is back in focus, and the price continues to decline. The trading strategy is to buy after a sufficient correction on the long - side and sell out - of - the - money call options [104][105]. Tin - The price lacks upward momentum, and the trading strategy is to pay attention to macro - impacts and expect high - level oscillations [106][107]. Shipping Industry Container Shipping - Shipping companies are starting to increase prices in January, and the market is expected to be in a short - term high - level shock. The trading strategy is to take partial profits on long positions and conduct a 2 - 4 positive spread arbitrage [108][109][110]. Energy and Chemical Industry Crude Oil - Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the price is oscillating. The trading strategy is to expect a wide - range oscillation and pay attention to the spread [112][113]. Asphalt - The supply and demand are weak, and the price is in a weak - shock state. The trading strategy is to expect a weak - shock and sell out - of - the - money call options [114][117]. Fuel Oil - Both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils have a weak fundamental outlook. The trading strategy is to expect a weak - shock and pay attention to the spread [118][120]. Natural Gas - LNG is weak, and US natural gas has broken through and risen. The trading strategy is to wait and see on the long - side and use option - selling strategies [121][123]. PX & PTA - PX supply is abundant, and PTA is expected to accumulate inventory. The trading strategy is to expect an oscillation and conduct a reverse spread [124][126]. BZ & EB - The cost lacks support, and inventory needs to be reduced. The trading strategy is to expect an oscillation and sell out - of - the money call options [127][130]. Ethylene Glycol - There is an expectation of inventory accumulation, and the price is falling. The trading strategy is to expect a weak - shock and sell out - of - the money call options [131][132]. Short - Fiber - The short - fiber factory has an expectation of inventory accumulation. The trading strategy is to expect an oscillation and use a double - sell option strategy [133][134]. Bottle Chips - The demand is expected to weaken in the off - season. The trading strategy is to expect an oscillation and use a double - sell option strategy [135][137]. Propylene - High inventory suppresses the price. The trading strategy is to go short on rallies and sell call options [138][140]. Plastic PP - The price is expected to be weak. The trading strategy is to wait and see on the long - side and pay attention to the support level [141][142]. Caustic Soda - The price is weak. The trading strategy is to expect a weak trend and wait and see [143][146]. PVC - The price hits a new low. The trading strategy is to expect a weak trend [147][148]. Soda Ash - The price is in an oscillating state. The trading strategy is to expect an oscillation and pay attention to the spread [150][152]. Glass - The price is weak and oscillating. The trading strategy is to expect the supply - side contraction to determine the winter - storage strength and pay attention to the spread [153][155]. Methanol - The price is in a weak - shock state. The trading strategy is to expect an oscillation [156]. Urea - The price rises and then falls. The trading strategy is to go short on the long - side and pay attention to the spread [158][161]. Pulp and Paper Industry Pulp - The spot market price has fallen from a high level. The trading strategy is to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try short positions [163][164]. Logs - The fundamental situation is weakening. The trading strategy is to wait and see, and aggressive investors can go long on a small scale [167][168]. Offset Printing Paper - The supply pressure remains high, and the market continues to decline. The trading strategy is to wait and see, and aggressive investors can go short on rallies [170][172]. Rubber Industry Natural Rubber - The warehouse receipts are accumulating, and the tire inventory remains unchanged. The trading strategy is to hold short positions on the RU01 contract and go long on the NR02 contract with a small amount [173][176]. Butadiene Rubber - The total warehouse receipts are reducing inventory, and the tire inventory remains flat. The trading strategy is to hold short positions on the BR02 contract [177][179].

王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人 策 略 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] [Table_Reportdate] 2025年12月07日 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn [美元降息与日元加息预期，资产再平衡 Table_NewTitle] 下寻找确定性 ——资产配置周报（2025/12/01-2025/12/05） [table_main] 投资要点 总 量 研 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [Table_Report] ➢ 全球大类资产回顾。12月5日当周，全球股市多数上涨，A股表现相对较好；主要商品期货 中铜、原油、铝收涨，黄金收跌；美元指数小幅下跌，非美货币升值。1）权益方面： ...

Core Viewpoint - Codelco and Glencore have signed a preliminary agreement to collaborate on a smelter project in Chile, indicating a significant investment opportunity in the copper industry [1] Group 1: Project Details - Codelco will supply copper concentrate for the smelter, which will be constructed by Glencore in the Antofagasta region of northern Chile [1] - The smelter is expected to have an annual processing capacity of approximately 1.5 million tons [1] - The project is estimated to require an investment of between $1.5 billion and $2 billion [1] Group 2: Timeline and Future Plans - Glencore will conduct a preliminary feasibility study, with both companies aiming to finalize the agreement by mid-2026 [1] - If the project proceeds as planned, construction is expected to begin in 2030, with operations starting between 2032 and 2033 [1]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | 种 | 隔夜内外铜价窄幅震荡，国内精铜现货进口亏损扩大。宏观方面，截至 11 月 29 日当周 首申失业金人数减少 2.7 万人至 19.1 万，显著低于市场预期的 22 万及前值 21.6 万，显 | | | 示企业裁员意愿有限，就业市场保有韧性。据路透社报道称，日本央行或将把政策利率 从 0.5%上调至 0.75%，这将是自今年 1 月以来的首次加息。日本央行重启加息预期或导 | | | 致过去"日元套利交易"出现平仓潮，给全球风险资产特别是美元资产构成较大压力。 | | 铜 | 库存方面，LME 库存增加 675 吨至 162825 吨；Comex 库存增加 1404 吨至 395383 吨； | | | SHFE 铜仓单增加 3170 吨至 32139 吨；BC 铜仓单增加 50 吨至 4929 吨。LME 铜注册仓 | | | 单大量转为注销仓单，被市场认为即将大量被提货的表现，佐证投资者对未来铜价的看 | | | 好，也凸显了 LME 库存紧张和全球显性库存结构性问题， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market showed a significant recovery in the afternoon session, with major indices turning positive and market sentiment improving, as evidenced by the Hang Seng Index rising above 26,000 points again [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.58%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 1.01% and 0.84%, respectively [1] - The market exhibited a low-open, high-rise trend throughout the day, indicating a strong upward momentum [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Major technology stocks saw substantial gains, with Baidu surging nearly 8% at one point and closing up 5% [1] - Financial stocks, particularly in insurance, banking, and brokerage, contributed significantly to the market's rise, following adjustments in risk factors for insurance company investments [1] - Notable performers included China Pacific Insurance, which rose over 7%, and Ping An Insurance, which increased by 6.7% [1] - Other sectors such as non-ferrous metals, including aluminum and copper, remained active, with China Aluminum and Jiangxi Copper both seeing gains of over 5% and 6%, respectively [1] - New consumption, lithium battery, brain-computer interface, military, steel, and building materials sectors also experienced upward movements [1] Group 3: Underperforming Sectors - Conversely, sectors such as airlines, dining, gaming, and gas saw declines [1] - Two newly listed stocks faced significant drops, with "Encounter Xiaomian" falling nearly 28% and "Tianyu Semiconductor" dropping over 30% [1]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-05 社会库存继续下滑华东升水持续走高 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为186.85美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化200元/吨至22990元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水70元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日180元/吨至22880元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-40元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日180元/吨至22870元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-50元/吨。 绝对价格上涨突破23000元/吨，下游采购偏谨慎，天津和广东地区贴水扩大，但社会库存持续下滑，供应相对偏紧， 华东升水进一步走高。出口窗口持续打开，国内仓单库存小幅下滑，基本面方面全面偏向利好。11月冶炼端产量 环比回落且明显低于预期，现货升贴水持续向上修复，一方面体现消费强度另一方面体现供应偏紧。海内外TC持 续下滑， 国内高海拔矿山已经进入冬季停产检修周期，TC价格的快速回落叠加绝对价格的回落造成冶炼综合成本 开始面临亏损，在供给端压力后期有望下滑。基本面数据已经全面从前期利空转为利多，且当前锌估值偏低，美 国12月降息预期提高，但对未来的消费保持乐观，降息预期不改，再通胀尚未体现。 策 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 5 日 0 / 48 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：摩尔线程上市 有望带动反弹 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：情绪或有修复，短线空单止盈 4 | | 盘面整体压力仍存 5 | 蛋白粕：报告或有阶段性调整 | | --- | --- | | 国内糖价震荡 5 | 白糖：广西进入开榨高峰 | | 油脂板块：震荡行情延续 6 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货偏强，盘面高位震荡 7 | | | 价格小幅回落 8 | 生猪：出栏方面仍有压力 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面高位震荡 9 | | | 蛋价有所回落 9 | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般 | | 苹果基本面偏强 10 | 苹果：库存较低 | | 棉价震荡偏强 11 | 棉花-棉纱：新棉销售较好 | | 钢材：钢价区间震荡，成本存在支撑 13 | | --- | | 双焦：底部震荡运行 可逢低试多 13 | | 铁矿：高位偏空思路对待 14 | | 铁合金：成本推动短期反弹，需求压制反弹高度 15 | | 金银：黄金持稳 白银回调 16 | | --- | | 铂钯：铂择机逢低 ...

证券日报网讯12月4日，豫光金铅（600531）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，关于"废旧锂电池回收 生产线"项目，公司目前暂未开展该项目的建设工作。 ...