投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 甲醇产业期现日报 2025年7月24日 张晓珍 Z0003135 免责声明 甲醇价格及价差 | 品相 | 7月23日 | 7月22日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2601 收盘价 | 2497 | 2536 | -39 | -1.54% | | | MA2509 收盘价 | 2411 | 2457 | -46 | -1.87% | | | MA91价差 | -86 | -79 | -7 | 8.86% | | | 太仓基差 | -1 | -42 | 41 | -97.62% | | | 内蒙北线现货 | 2038 | 1990 | 48 | 2.39% | 元/吨 | | 河南洛阳现货 | 2198 | 2175 | 23 | 1.03% | | | 港口太仓现货 | 2410 | 2415 | -5 | -0.21% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-内蒙北线 | 373 | 425 | -53 | -12.35% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-洛阳 | 213 | 24 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年07月24日 【原油】 隔夜国际油价震荡，布伦特09合约收平。上周美国EIA原油库存超预期下降316.9万桶，成品油方面 汽油库存下降、馏分燃料油库存增加。美日贸易协议达成，美国对日本对等关税比例自初始版本的 25%下调至15%，但美国与欧盟、中国的贸易战风险仍有不确定性,相关利空风险短期大于俄乌、 伊核相应的地缘风险，油价或转为承压震荡为主；随着8月底、9月初伊核、俄乌谈判最终期限的临 近,8月地缘博弈或再次加剧,届时原油市场有望再度获得支撑。 【贵金属】 隔夜黄金回落，白银相对平稳。消息称欧美接近达成贸易协议，欧盟官员称基准关税为15%，美方尚 未予以确认。特朗普称将对大部分国家征收15%至50%的简单关税。美国关税政策截止日前市场不确 定性仍存，但超预期对抗的概率在下降，贵金属宽幅震荡为主，高位不宜追涨。 【铜】 隔夜铜价高位震荡，美盘铜价创高，美伦价差走扩至3000美元以上，但LME0-3月贴水52美元。美国 对亲密盟友关税在15%附近,对次围国家在19%附近。近期铜市场情绪偏谨慎,倾向铜价上方整数关 阻力强。 (铝) 隔夜 ...

Group 1 - The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo concluded successfully, with over 6000 cooperation agreements signed, emphasizing China's commitment to maintaining global supply chain stability and promoting an open world economy [1][2] - The expo serves as a platform for international cooperation in supply chains, addressing challenges posed by unilateralism and trade protectionism, and aims to foster stronger, greener, and healthier global development [2][3] - The event highlighted China's resilient economic performance and the emergence of new growth opportunities in the market, driven by new productivity and the dual advancement of emerging sectors and traditional industry upgrades [3][4] Group 2 - The expo attracted 1200 participating companies and institutions, with 35% being foreign exhibitors, and over 65% of the exhibitors being from Fortune 500 and leading industry firms, indicating a significant increase in international participation [5] - Notable international organizations and companies made their debut at the expo, showcasing a commitment to enhancing international cooperation in supply chains and exploring global development opportunities [5][6] - The establishment of a Sino-foreign exhibitor alliance during the expo aims to facilitate ongoing collaboration and resource sharing among participants, creating a continuous platform for exchange and cooperation [6][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Given the expected strength of coal and the weakness of crude oil, coal - chemical products will be stronger than oil - chemical products in the future. Chemical products may continue to fluctuate in the near term [2]. - The high -开工 reality dominated by high refinery operations at home and abroad and the weak supply - led expectations will balance each other, resulting in oil price fluctuations [9]. - The high valuation of asphalt futures will decline following the crude oil, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to fall as warehouse receipts increase [10]. - The prices of most chemical products, including methanol, urea, ethylene glycol, etc., are expected to fluctuate in the short term [2][8][9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - Crude oil: High - level pressure, pay attention to geopolitical disturbances, and the price will fluctuate [8][9]. - LPG: The support from the cost side is weakening, the fundamental situation remains loose, and the PG futures may show a weak - side fluctuation [3]. - Asphalt: The spot price of major suppliers has dropped, and the high - valued asphalt futures will decline following the crude oil [10]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: There is a large downward pressure on the futures price [3]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: It will fluctuate weakly following the crude oil [3][12]. - Methanol: Boosted by the macro - environment and coal, it will fluctuate [3][26]. - Urea: The market sentiment has slowed down, and the futures may return to the fundamentals, with short - term pressure [3][27]. - Ethylene glycol: The price will be widely adjusted, and it will seek a direction in the fluctuation [3][20]. - PX: The cost raw materials are weak, but the commodity sentiment is warm [3][14]. - PTA: The commodity sentiment stimulates the futures price to fluctuate more violently [3][15]. - Short - fiber: There are limited industrial contradictions, and it will fluctuate following the cost [3][22]. - Bottle chips: It will fluctuate following the upstream cost [3][24]. - PP: The macro - boost confronts the fundamental pressure, and it will fluctuate [3][31]. - Propylene: It had a remarkable debut, and the PL may fluctuate in the short term [3][32]. - Plastic: Supported by the macro - environment, it will fluctuate [3][30]. - Pure benzene: The balance sheet has improved, but the port has resumed inventory accumulation, and it will trade sideways [3][15]. - Styrene: The trading atmosphere is light, and it will fluctuate within a range [3][19]. - PVC: There is an expectation of cost increase, and it is cautiously optimistic [3][34]. - Caustic soda: Strong expectations but weak reality, it may have a weak rebound [3][35] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period spreads**: For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.78 with a change of - 0.04; Dubai's M1 - M2 spread is 0.69 with a change of 0.03 [37]. - **Basis and warehouse receipts**: Such as asphalt's basis is 251 with a change of 15 and 82300 warehouse receipts; high - sulfur fuel oil's basis is 150 with a change of 39 and 113980 warehouse receipts [38]. - **Inter - variety spreads**: For instance, 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 378 with a change of 60; 1 - month TA - EG spread is 344 with a change of 13 [39] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The content mainly lists various chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data summaries are not provided in a clear and unified manner in the given text

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Index futures are rated as a slow - bull market with an upward - trending shock; treasury bonds are recommended to focus on taking profits, with a strengthening shock [6]. - **Black building materials**: Rebar is recommended for temporary observation; iron ore is expected to be strong with shocks; coking coal and coke are recommended for cautious trial - buying [1][8][9]. - **Non - ferrous metals**: Copper is recommended for range trading or observation; aluminum is recommended to be mainly observed; nickel is recommended for observation or short - selling at high prices; tin is recommended for range trading; gold and silver are recommended for range trading [1][11][20]. - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and rubber are expected to be strong with shocks; urea and methanol are expected to move with shocks; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range shocks; soda ash is recommended for离场观望 [1][23][36]. - **Cotton - spinning industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be strong with shocks; apples and jujubes are expected to move with shocks [1][38][39]. - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Pigs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices; eggs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices in the short - term and long - bought at low prices in the fourth quarter; corn is expected to have high - level shocks; soybean meal and oils are expected to be strong with shocks [1][41][48]. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment ratings and market outlooks for various futures products in different industries. It analyzes market trends based on factors such as macro - economic policies, supply - demand relationships, and international trade situations. For example, in the macro - finance sector, index futures are influenced by trade news and show a slow - bull trend, while treasury bonds face challenges from capital diversion and risk - preference changes. In the black building materials sector, prices are affected by factors like production inspections, supply - demand balances, and policy expectations. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Index futures**: The slow - bull trend is gradually clear, and the index center moves up due to trade news boosting market risk preference [6]. - **Treasury bonds**: Although the odds space of long - term and ultra - long - term yields has opened, the bond market is under pressure from capital diversion and cautious institutional behavior. It is recommended to focus on taking profits [6]. Black building materials - **Rebar**: The price is expected to be strong with shocks. The supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced, and attention should be paid to policy signals and crude steel production restrictions [8]. - **Iron ore**: The price is expected to be strong with shocks. The supply is stable, the demand is strong, and the market is influenced by trade policies and policy expectations [9]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Coking coal shows a supply - demand boom, and the price is strongly supported in the short - term. Coke has obvious supply - demand gaming characteristics, and the second - round price increase may be affected by factors such as steel mill profits [9][10]. Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The price is expected to be in a high - level shock. It is affected by factors such as import tariffs, inventory changes, and economic recovery expectations [11]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term upward space of the price is limited. Attention should be paid to inventory accumulation. Alumina is recommended for observation, and electrolytic aluminum and cast aluminum alloy are recommended for observation [13][14]. - **Nickel**: The long - term supply is excessive, and the price is expected to move with shocks. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [18]. - **Tin**: The supply gap is improving, and the price is expected to be supported. It is recommended for range trading [19][20]. - **Silver and gold**: The prices are expected to move with shocks. They are affected by factors such as economic data, geopolitical situations, and tariff policies [20][22]. Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: The supply - demand is still weak, but it is driven by policy expectations and is expected to be strong with shocks. Attention should be paid to the support at 5100 [24][25]. - **Caustic soda**: The supply is high, and the demand has rigid support but slow growth. The near - month contract is under pressure, and the 10 - contract can be considered for low - buying on dips [26][27]. - **Styrene**: The fundamentals have limited benefits, and it is expected to be strong with shocks. Attention should be paid to the support at 7300 [28]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to be strong with shocks. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 15000. The raw material is firm, and the inventory shows a slight destocking trend [30]. - **Urea**: The supply decreases slightly, the demand has certain support, and the price is expected to move with shocks in the range of 1680 - 1850 [31]. - **Methanol**: The supply and demand tend to be stable, and the price is expected to move with shocks [33]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is large, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to have a weak shock. Attention should be paid to the intervals of 7200 - 7500 for L2509 and 6900 - 7200 for PP2509 [34][35]. - **Soda ash**: It is recommended for离场观望. The supply is high, the demand is under pressure, and the short - term is driven by macro factors [37]. Cotton - spinning industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The price is expected to be strong with shocks. The global cotton supply and demand are adjusted, and the spot market is tight [38]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to maintain a high - level range shock due to low inventory [39]. - **Jujubes**: The spot price is expected to be stable in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the new - season situation in the production area [39]. Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply - demand pressure still exists, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices after the rebound [41][42]. - **Eggs**: In the short - term, it is recommended to short - sell at high prices, and in the fourth quarter, it is recommended to long - buy at low prices. Attention should be paid to factors such as supply and demand changes and cold - storage egg出库 [44]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and the price is expected to have a high - level shock. It is recommended to be cautious when going long unilaterally and pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse spread opportunity [45][46]. - **Soybean meal**: In the short - term, it is recommended to go long at low prices for M2509. In the long - term, pay attention to the weather and go long at low prices for M2511 and M2601 [46][48]. - **Oils**: In the short - term, pay attention to the support levels of 8000, 8900, and 9400 for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil 09 contracts, and continue the idea of buying on dips [48][53].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the price of live pigs (external three yuan) has decreased by 4.6% in mid-July compared to early July 2025 [1] - Among 50 monitored important production materials, 28 products saw price increases, while 20 experienced price declines, and 2 remained unchanged [1] - The price of live pigs is now at 14.4 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a decrease of 0.7 yuan [2] Group 2 - The price of rebar (Φ20mm, HRB400E) increased by 52.4 yuan, marking a rise of 1.7% [2] - The price of aluminum ingots (A00) decreased by 141.2 yuan, a decline of 0.7% [2] - The price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) increased by 38.7 yuan, reflecting a rise of 0.9% [2] - The price of urea (medium and small particles) increased by 2.1 yuan, a rise of 0.1% [3] - The price of natural rubber (standard rubber SCRWF) increased by 477.3 yuan, marking a significant rise of 34% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories indicates a mixed trend, with 28 products experiencing price increases, 20 seeing declines, and 2 remaining stable in mid-July 2025 compared to early July 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Price Changes in Major Categories - In the black metal category, notable price increases include rebar at 3160.6 CNY per ton (up 1.7%), wire rod at 3327.5 CNY per ton (up 1.9%), and hot-rolled ordinary plates at 3299.1 CNY per ton (up 2.3%) [4]. - In the non-ferrous metals category, prices for electrolytic copper decreased by 1895.3 CNY per ton (down 2.4%), while aluminum ingots fell by 141.2 CNY per ton (down 0.7%) [4]. - Chemical products showed mixed results, with sulfuric acid increasing by 11.4 CNY per ton (up 1.7%) and methanol decreasing by 36.2 CNY per ton (down 1.6%) [4]. Group 2: Energy and Coal Prices - In the petroleum and natural gas sector, liquefied natural gas (LNG) rose to 4325.5 CNY per ton (up 0.9%), while liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) fell to 4455.6 CNY per ton (down 1.2%) [4]. - Coal prices also saw increases, with anthracite coal at 865.4 CNY per ton (up 4.3%) and coking coal at 1150.0 CNY per ton (up 7.0%) [4]. Group 3: Agricultural Products and Inputs - In agricultural products, cotton prices increased by 226.9 CNY per ton (up 1.6%), while corn prices decreased by 38.6 CNY per ton (down 1.6%) [5]. - Fertilizer prices showed a slight increase, with urea at 1822.4 CNY per ton (up 0.1%) and compound fertilizer at 3149.4 CNY per ton (up 0.9%) [5]. Group 4: Monitoring Methodology - The price monitoring encompasses a wide range of products across 31 provinces, involving nearly 2000 wholesalers and dealers, ensuring comprehensive coverage of the market [8][9]. - The methodology includes on-site price collection, as well as inquiries via phone and electronic communication [9].

能源化工期权 2025-07-25 能源化工期权策略早报 表2：期权因子—量仓PCR | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (万手) | | (万手) | | | 原油 | SC2509 | 506 | 2 | 0.42 | 12.88 | -1.49 | 3.63 | -0.03 | | 液化气 | PG2509 | 3,972 | 0 | 0.00 | 10.18 | -2.44 | 9.23 | 0.46 | | 甲醇 | MA2509 | 2,469 | 39 | 1.60 | 86.70 | -19.26 | 66.66 | 0.60 | | 乙二醇 | EG2509 | 4,467 | 27 | 0.61 | 17.03 | -7.76 | 26.25 | -0.62 | | 聚丙烯 | PP2509 | 7,145 | 19 | 0.27 | 33.82 | -5.76 | 35 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore - Oscillation; Coal and coke - Uptrend; Rolled steel - Oscillation; Glass - Uptrend; Soda ash - Bullish [2] - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai 50 Index - Rebound; CSI 300 Index - Oscillation; CSI 500 Index - Oscillation; CSI 1000 Index - Oscillation; 2 - year Treasury bond - Oscillation; 5 - year Treasury bond - Oscillation; 10 - year Treasury bond - Rebound; Gold - Oscillation; Silver - Bullish operation [3][4][6] - **Light Industry**: Pulp - Correction; Log - Correction [6] - **Oil and Fat Industry**: Soybean oil - Oscillation and correction; Palm oil - Oscillation and correction; Rapeseed oil - Oscillation and correction [6] - **Feed Industry**: Soybean meal - Oscillation and correction; Rapeseed meal - Oscillation and correction; Soybean No. 2 - Oscillation and correction; Soybean No. 1 - Oscillation and correction [8] - **Agricultural Products Industry**: Live pigs - Oscillation and weakness [8] - **Soft Commodities Industry**: Rubber - Oscillation; PX - Wait - and - see; PTA - Wait - and - see; MEG - Wait - and - see; PR - Wait - and - see; PF - Wait - and - see [10] 2. Core Views - The black industry is affected by policies such as "anti - involution" and the expectation of stable growth in the steel industry. The short - term market sentiment is boosted, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand situation varies by product [2]. - The financial market is influenced by factors such as Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, the start of the full - island customs closure operation in Hainan Free Trade Port, and central bank operations. The upward momentum of the market weakens, and risk preferences decline [3][4]. - In the precious metals market, the pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and the Fed's interest rate and tariff policies, as well as geopolitical conflicts, affect the market sentiment [4][6]. - The pulp and log markets show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to correct [6]. - The oil and fat and feed markets are affected by factors such as production, inventory, and trade agreements. After previous rises, prices may oscillate and correct in the short term [6][8]. - The live pig market is affected by factors such as temperature, slaughter enterprise procurement, and supply - demand relationship. The average transaction weight may decline slightly, and prices may also weaken [8]. - The rubber market is affected by weather, production, demand, and inventory. Prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [10]. - The polyester industry is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship and cost. Most products are in a wait - and - see state [10]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipping volume increases, and the supply is still abundant. In the short term, the fundamentals are acceptable, but in the medium and long term, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains. It follows the trend of finished products, and attention should be paid to the support at 800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Coal and Coke**: The expectation of anti - involution policies and supply - side policies boosts market sentiment. After the second price increase, the cost of coke still has pressure, and the market's bullish expectation is enhanced. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [2]. - **Rolled Steel (Thread Steel)**: The "anti - involution" policy stimulates supply - side sentiment, but the overall demand is weak. In the short term, it is supported by policies, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of July [2]. - **Glass**: The "anti - involution" trading may continue. The demand side has weakening real demand but strong speculative demand. The supply side has increasing production pressure. In the long term, the demand is difficult to recover significantly [2]. - **Soda Ash**: It is bullish in the short term, and attention should be paid to the real demand and supply - side trends [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The market upward momentum weakens, and it is recommended to reduce long positions in stock index futures [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The market interest rate is consolidating, and long positions in treasury bonds can be held lightly [3][4]. - **Precious Metals**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing. In the short term, it is affected by the Fed's policies and geopolitical factors. Silver is bullish [4][6]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost price decline weakens the support for pulp prices. The paper industry has low profitability and high inventory pressure, and pulp prices are expected to correct [6]. - **Log**: The supply pressure is not large, but the anti - involution sentiment weakens, and log prices are expected to correct [6]. Oil and Fat Industry - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil**: Supply is abundant, and it is the off - season for demand. Although supported by the bio - diesel expectation, prices may oscillate and correct in the short term after previous rises [6]. Feed Industry - **Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean No. 2, Soybean No. 1**: Affected by factors such as US soybean production, inventory, and trade agreements, prices may oscillate and correct in the short term after previous rises [8]. Agricultural Products Industry - **Live Pigs**: The average transaction weight may decline slightly, and prices may weaken due to factors such as supply increase and demand suppression by high temperatures [8]. Soft Commodities Industry - **Rubber**: Affected by weather, production, demand, and inventory, prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [10]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: Most products in the polyester industry are affected by supply - demand and cost factors and are in a wait - and - see state [10].

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