Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The energy chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Strategies suggest constructing option portfolios mainly with sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical option underlying futures contracts, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, etc. [4] 2. Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - It shows the trading volume, volume change, open interest, open interest change, trading volume PCR, volume PCR change, open interest PCR, and open interest PCR change of various option varieties. The volume PCR and open interest PCR are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively [5]. 3. Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options, the pressure points, pressure point offsets, support points, support point offsets, maximum call option open interest, and maximum put option open interest of various option underlying are analyzed [6]. 4. Option Factors - Implied Volatility - It provides the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average implied volatility, call option implied volatility, put option implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility of various option varieties [7]. 5. Option Strategies and Recommendations 5.1 Energy Options - Crude Oil - **Underlying Market Analysis**: OPEC + is expected to keep the original production suspension policy unchanged. Nigeria's crude oil + condensate production reached 1.6 million barrels per day in November 2025, up 1.3% month - on - month. The crude oil market showed a weak rebound trend [8]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of crude oil options fluctuated below the average level. The open interest PCR was below 0.70, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 450 and the support level was 400 [8]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: No directional strategy; for volatility strategy, construct a neutral call + put option selling combination strategy; for spot long - hedging strategy, construct a long collar strategy [8]. 5.2 Energy Options - LPG - **Underlying Market Analysis**: There was no significant increase in supply. The chemical demand supported the price bottom. The LPG market showed a volatile recovery trend with upper pressure [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of LPG options fluctuated around the average level. The open interest PCR was below 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 4300 and the support level was 4000 [10]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: No directional strategy; for volatility strategy, construct a neutral call + put option selling combination strategy; for spot long - hedging strategy, construct a long collar strategy [10]. 5.3 Alcohol Options - Methanol - **Underlying Market Analysis**: China's methanol production was about 2.0511 million tons with a capacity utilization rate of about 90.31%. The market showed a rebound trend with upper pressure [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of methanol options fluctuated around the historical average level. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 2300 and the support level was 2100 [10]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: No directional strategy; for volatility strategy, construct a neutral call + put option selling combination strategy; for spot long - hedging strategy, construct a long collar strategy [10]. 5.4 Alcohol Options - Ethylene Glycol - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The polyester load was 90.8% last week. The ethylene glycol market showed a volatile recovery trend with upper pressure [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of ethylene glycol options fluctuated above the average level. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating strong short - side power. The pressure level was 3800 and the support level was 3600 [11]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: No directional strategy; for volatility strategy, construct a short - volatility strategy; for spot long - hedging strategy, hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11]. 5.5 Olefin Options - PVC - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The inventory increased. The PVC market showed a rebound trend with short - side pressure [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of PVC options decreased to fluctuate below the average level. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a continuous weak market. The pressure level was 5000 and the support level was 4300 [11]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: For directional strategy, construct a call option bull spread combination strategy; no volatility strategy; for spot long - hedging strategy, hold a spot long position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11]. 5.6 Rubber Options - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The rubber market showed a recovery trend with lower support and upper pressure [12]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of rubber options gradually returned to fluctuate around the average level. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level dropped significantly to 17000 and the support level was 14000 [12]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: No directional strategy; for volatility strategy, construct a neutral call + put option selling combination strategy; no spot hedging strategy [12]. 5.7 Polyester Options - PTA - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The PTA load was 78.2%. The market showed a short - term strong recovery trend [12]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of PTA options fluctuated at a low average level. The open interest PCR was above 1.00, indicating a strong market. The pressure level was 4750 and the support level was 4400 [12]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: No directional strategy; for volatility strategy, construct a neutral call + put option selling combination strategy; no spot hedging strategy [12]. 5.8 Alkali Options - Caustic Soda - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The average capacity utilization rate of large - scale caustic soda enterprises was 86.8%. The market showed a weak short - side trend with upper pressure [13]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of caustic soda options fluctuated at a high level. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 2320 and the support level was 2040 [13]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: For directional strategy, construct a bear spread combination strategy; no volatility strategy; for spot collar hedging strategy, hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [13]. 5.9 Alkali Options - Soda Ash - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The soda ash inventory increased. The market showed a low - level weak - side volatile trend [13]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of soda ash options fluctuated at a historically high level. The open interest PCR was below 0.50, indicating a short - side market. The pressure level was 1300 and the support level was 1100 [13]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: No directional strategy; for volatility strategy, construct a short - volatility combination strategy; for spot long - hedging strategy, construct a long collar strategy [13]. 5.10 Urea Options - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The supply - demand difference decreased, and the enterprise inventory increased. The market showed a short - term weak trend with upper pressure [14]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of urea options fluctuated at a low historical average level. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating large short - side pressure. The pressure level was 1700 and the support level was 1640 [14]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: No directional strategy; for volatility strategy, construct a slightly long - biased call + put option selling combination strategy; for spot hedging strategy, hold a spot long position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being strong [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: strong; Overall view: run strongly [1][5] - **Driving Logic**: After Thailand and Cambodia declared a truce, the expectation of reduced rubber supply in Southeast Asia disappeared, weakening the bullish drive. However, domestic natural rubber producing areas in Yunnan and Hainan have entered the off - season, reducing domestic supply pressure, while Southeast Asia is in the peak tapping season. Also, domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. Benefiting from the overall strength of energy - chemical products, Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and strong trend on the night of Tuesday and are expected to continue this trend on Wednesday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: strong; Overall view: run strongly [1][7] - **Driving Logic**: The spot price of butadiene has risen sharply due to the tight supply of northern sources and downstream replenishment demand. The rapid increase in raw material costs has squeezed the profits of synthetic rubber manufacturers, leading to reduced production or shutdown of some plants and a decrease in supply expectations. In addition, domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected, and the crude oil futures maintain an oscillatory and strong pattern, strengthening the cost support. Under the bullish atmosphere, synthetic rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and strong trend on the night of Tuesday and are expected to continue this trend on Wednesday [7].

Oil Market - Oil prices have experienced five consecutive increases, with WTI February contract closing up by $1.65 to $61.15 per barrel, a rise of 2.77% [2][16] - Brent March contract closed up by $1.60 to $65.47 per barrel, a rise of 2.51% [2][16] - Concerns over supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions in Iran and issues with the Caspian Pipeline Consortium have heightened bullish sentiment in the market [2][16] - API data indicates a significant increase in U.S. crude oil inventories by 5.278 million barrels last week, compared to a decrease of 2.766 million barrels the previous week [2][16] Fuel Oil - The main fuel oil contract FU2603 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 0.53% to 2461 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil contract LU2603 increased by 1.66% to 3066 yuan/ton [17][18] - The low-sulfur fuel oil market structure remains stable, with moderate support for high-sulfur fuel oil due to recovering demand from the shipping sector [17][18] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2602 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 0.66% to 3140 yuan/ton [19] - The market is influenced by tightening raw material supply and declining refinery output, leading to a significant price increase [19] Rubber - The main rubber contract RU2605 fell by 155 yuan/ton to 15975 yuan/ton, while NR and BR contracts also saw declines [20] - The export volume of natural rubber in November 2025 decreased by 14.7% year-on-year to 37,150 tons, with 50.8% exported to China [20] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5140 yuan/ton, down 0.04%, while EG2605 closed at 3815 yuan/ton, down 1.68% [21] - The polyester market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations due to geopolitical risks affecting oil prices [21] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were reported at 2257 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $265 to $269 per ton [22] - The market is expected to maintain a bottom range due to declining port inventory pressure [22] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polyolefins in East China range from 6370 to 6500 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [23][24] - Supply is expected to decrease slightly due to temporary maintenance, while demand is anticipated to recover as the Lunar New Year approaches [24] PVC - PVC prices in East China have been adjusted upwards, with various grades priced between 4660 and 4850 yuan/ton [25] - The market is expected to maintain a bottom range due to high supply levels and slowing domestic demand [25] Urea - Urea futures prices showed a slight decline, with the main contract closing at 1774 yuan/ton [26] - The market is entering a phase of consolidation as demand remains supported by winter storage [26] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices fell by 1.3%, with the main contract closing at 1212 yuan/ton [27] - The market outlook remains weak due to low demand and inventory pressures as the Lunar New Year approaches [27] Glass - Glass futures prices showed a decline, with the main contract closing at 1096 yuan/ton, down 3.09% [28] - The market is supported by high transaction volumes in the spot market, but seasonal demand is expected to decrease as the holiday approaches [28]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week, with some enterprises having maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday and some continuing to control production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. As the maintenance devices gradually resume, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly this week. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,600 - 16,400 in the short - term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,650 - 13,250 in the short - term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,975 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 155 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,840 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 170 yuan. - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,135 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan. - The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 194,674 lots, a decrease of 5,832 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 70,162 lots, a decrease of 402 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 53,451 lots, an increase of 253 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 15,091 lots, a decrease of 268 lots. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 105,590 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange were 57,758 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,700 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 16,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,920 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,910 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,130 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,900 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, with no change. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 1,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,324 yuan/ton, a decrease of 84 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 314 yuan/ton, a decrease of 144 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 60.09 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.13 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 56.35 Thai baht/kg, with no change. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 57 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 1 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup glue) was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85 Thai baht. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 24 US dollars/ton, an increase of 21 US dollars. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 168,800 tons, an increase of 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 302,200 tons, an increase of 45,800 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 58.02%, a decrease of 1.53 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 65.89%, a decrease of 3.46 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 44.62 days, a decrease of 2.43 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 47.36 days, an increase of 0.31 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13,010,000 pieces, an increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58,310,000 pieces, an increase of 6,630,000 pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.48%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.64%, a decrease of 0.19 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.28%, an increase of 1.52 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.27%, an increase of 1.53 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and an increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period last year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1,140,000 vehicles. - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, an increase of 19,800 tons or 3.62% compared with the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 93,500 tons, an increase of 6.14%; the general trade inventory was 474,700 tons, an increase of 3.13%. - As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate of the semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 63.78%, a decrease of 2.75 percentage points compared with the previous period and a decrease of 13.97 percentage points compared with the same period last year; the capacity utilization rate of the all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a decrease of 2.43 percentage points compared with the previous period and a decrease of 3.37 percentage points compared with the same period last year [2]

从资金流向上来看，当日橡胶板块主力资金净流出3.52亿元，游资资金净流入1.69亿元，散户资金净流入 1.84亿元。橡胶板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 001207 | 联科科技 | 542.64万 | 3.13% | 795.38万 | 4.58% | -1338.02万 | -7.71% | | 920834 | 三维装备 | 484.78万 | 6.32% | -76.09万 | -0.99% | -103.39万 | -1.35% | | 605183 确成股份 | | 38.74万 | 0.74% | 215.84万 | 4.13% | -254.58万 | -4.87% | | 920694 | 中裕科技 | 24.54万 | 0.33% | -193.39万 | -2.61% | -60.39万 | -0.82% | | 301300 远翔新材 | | -118 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR: Neutral [12] - BR: Cautiously bullish [12] Core Viewpoints - RU and NR prices are expected to stabilize slightly this week with the recovery of tire factory operating rates, but the pressure of domestic arrivals will suppress spot prices, and inventory accumulation is expected to continue in China. The cost - end support for rubber is expected to continue, and attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm of downstream tire factories [12]. - BR is expected to follow the upstream butadiene raw material prices and maintain a relatively strong trend. The supply pressure has eased slightly, and downstream demand has no obvious highlights [12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - **Futures**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 16,130 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the NR main contract was 13,010 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 12,070 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot**: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 15,130 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; the Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,920 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton; the Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,860 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 11,850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1]. Market Information - **Heavy - truck market**: In December 2025, about 95,000 heavy - trucks were sold in China, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. In 2025, the heavy - truck market achieved nine consecutive months of growth from April to December, with an average growth rate of up to 41% [2]. - **Natural rubber imports**: In November 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.69%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.8716 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.98% [2]. - **Global natural rubber production and consumption**: ANRPC predicted that in November 2025, global natural rubber production would decrease by 2.6% to 1.474 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous month; consumption would decrease by 1.4% to 1.248 million tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous month. In the first 11 months, the cumulative production was expected to increase by 2% to 13.375 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.7% to 13.932 million tons [2]. - **Automobile tire exports**: From January to November, China's automobile tire exports were 751,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%; the export value was 126.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% [3]. - **Automobile production and sales**: In November, China's automobile production and sales were 3.532 million and 3.429 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and 3.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.8% and 3.4%. The monthly production exceeded 3.5 million vehicles for the first time, setting a new historical high [4]. - **Côte d'Ivoire natural rubber exports**: In 2025, Côte d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports were 1.98 million tons, a 13.4% increase compared to 1.74 million tons in the same period of 2024 [5]. Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and spreads**: On January 12, 2026, the RU basis was - 330 yuan/ton (unchanged); the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,000 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan/ton); the NR basis was 451.00 yuan/ton (up 7.00 yuan/ton); whole latex was 15,800 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton); mixed rubber was 15,130 yuan/ton (up 80 yuan/ton); 3L spot was 16,100 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton); STR20 was quoted at 1,920 US dollars/ton (up 10 US dollars/ton); the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 300 yuan/ton (unchanged); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,030 yuan/ton (down 120 yuan/ton) [6]. - **Raw materials**: Thai smoked sheets were 60.09 Thai baht/kg (down 0.13 Thai baht/kg); Thai latex was 57.00 Thai baht/kg (up 1.00 Thai baht/kg); Thai cup lump was 52.20 Thai baht/kg (unchanged); the difference between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.80 Thai baht/kg (up 1.00 Thai baht/kg) [7]. - **Operating rates**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 55.50% (down 2.43%); the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 63.78% (down 2.75%) [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 568,173 tons (up 19,829 tons); the natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port was 1,232,533 tons (up 30,677 tons); the RU futures inventory was 104,490 tons (up 3,900 tons); the NR futures inventory was 56,952 tons (down 1,007 tons) [8]. Butadiene Rubber - **Spot and spreads**: On January 12, 2026, the BR basis was - 270 yuan/ton (down 55 yuan/ton); the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,200 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton); the quoted price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan/ton); the quoted price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 11,850 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton); the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,500 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton); the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 443 yuan/ton (down 41 yuan/ton) [9]. - **Operating rates**: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 79.15% (up 1.97%) [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,770 tons (down 410 tons); the enterprise inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,350 tons (up 50 tons) [11].

为使已运行40余年的装置保持稳产高产，吉林石化实施了关键设备升级改造。为进一步提升核心设备脱 水能力，技术人员通过扩大脱水机返流面积、优化减速机转速等措施，使胶粒含水量下降8%，蒸汽消 耗降低5%，实现了增产和提质降耗的目标。此外，技术人员还将湿粉碎设备轴承座优化为剖分式结 构，单次维修时间缩短超60%，进一步延长了装置的有效生产时间;使用新型液环真空泵替代老旧往复 式真空泵，消除了隐患，保障了单体回收系统稳定运行。 中化新网讯 2025年，吉林石化丁苯橡胶累计产量达12.6万吨，比上年增长67%，创近年来新高。 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to operate weakly with a volatile trend on Tuesday, February 13, 2026 [1][5][7]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; medium - term: volatile; intraday: weakly. Overall, it is expected to operate weakly [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: With the end of the war between Thailand and Cambodia, geopolitical risks have weakened, and the expectation of a decline in Southeast Asian rubber supply has dissipated, reducing the bullish drive. Currently, the domestic natural rubber producing areas in Yunnan and Hainan are in the off - season, reducing the supply pressure of domestic full - latex, while Southeast Asia is still in the peak tapping season. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. After the previous bullish factors are digested, the Shanghai rubber futures opened high and closed low on the night of Monday, maintaining a volatile and stable trend [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; medium - term: volatile; intraday: weakly. Overall, it is expected to operate weakly [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by the tight circulation of northern goods and downstream replenishment demand, the spot price of butadiene has risen significantly. The rapid increase in raw material costs has squeezed the profits of synthetic rubber manufacturers, leading to some plants reducing production or shutting down, and the supply is expected to decline. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. The Shanghai rubber futures maintain a volatile and strong pattern, indirectly supporting the synthetic rubber futures. After the previous bullish factors are digested, the synthetic rubber futures opened high and closed low on the night of Monday, maintaining a volatile and weak trend [7].

Oil Market - Oil prices experienced fluctuations with WTI February contract closing at $59.50 per barrel, up $0.38, a 0.64% increase, while Brent March contract closed at $63.87 per barrel, up $0.53, a 0.84% increase [2][16] - Concerns over Iran potentially reducing exports amid significant anti-government protests countered expectations of increased supply from Venezuela, another sanctioned OPEC member [2][16] - The U.S. President Trump indicated that any country doing business with Iran would face a 25% tariff, contributing to ongoing geopolitical risk pricing in the market [2][16] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (FU2603) fell by 1.32% to 2461 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil (LU2603) rose by 0.93% to 3026 yuan/ton [3][17] - The low-sulfur fuel oil market remains stable, while the high-sulfur market shows slight support due to recovering demand for marine fuel oil [3][17] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract (BU2602) decreased by 0.25% to 3157 yuan/ton, with market dynamics influenced by tightening raw material supply and declining refinery output [5][18] - The asphalt market is expected to navigate between weak demand realities and strong cost expectations, with a focus on future raw material supply [5][18] Rubber - Shanghai rubber futures (RU2605) rose by 100 yuan/ton to 16130 yuan/ton, with various rubber grades showing price increases [6][19] - The export volume of natural rubber from Côte d'Ivoire is projected to reach 1.98 million tons in 2025, a 13.4% increase from 2024 [6][19] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5142 yuan/ton, up 0.67%, while EG2605 closed at 3880 yuan/ton, up 0.36% [7][20] - PX futures closed at 7308 yuan/ton, up 0.97%, with the market facing geopolitical risks that may elevate oil price premiums [7][20] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2260 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $265 to $269 per ton [8][22] - The market is expected to maintain a bottoming trend, but tensions in Iran may increase volatility [8][22] Polyolefins - Polypropylene prices in East China ranged from 6350 to 6500 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [9][23] - Supply is expected to see slight reductions due to temporary maintenance, while demand is anticipated to recover slightly before the Lunar New Year [9][23] PVC - PVC prices in East China showed slight adjustments, with the market remaining under pressure from high supply and slowing domestic demand [10][24] - The overall market sentiment is bearish, with expectations of price stabilization at lower levels [10][24] Urea - Urea futures prices remained stable, with the main contract closing at 1783 yuan/ton, while spot prices in Shandong and Henan decreased slightly [11][25] - The market is experiencing cautious demand, with production rates showing significant regional disparities [11][25] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures closed at 1239 yuan/ton, up 1.31%, with stable pricing from manufacturers [12][27] - The market faces a balance between basic supply and external factors, with expectations of pressure as the Lunar New Year approaches [12][27] Glass - Glass futures prices fluctuated, with the main contract closing at 1143 yuan/ton, while spot prices increased to an average of 1096 yuan/ton [13][28] - The market is supported by low supply and high transaction volumes, although demand may decline as the holiday approaches [13][28]

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Report Date: January 13, 2026 [3] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Data Sources: Mysteel, Wind [8] Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of the BR main contract on January 12 was 12,070, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 425. The持仓量 was 22,742, down 3,597 daily and 17,495 weekly. The成交量 was 84,758, down 16,463 daily and 2,596 weekly. The warehouse receipt quantity remained at 24,330 [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The virtual - real ratio was 4.67, down 1 daily and 4 weekly. The butadiene rubber basis was - 170, down 105 daily and 125 weekly. The styrene - butadiene rubber basis was 30, down 152 daily and 125 weekly [4]. - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 11,900, down 50 daily and up 300 weekly. The Chuanhua market price was 11,850, down 50 daily and up 300 weekly. The Qilu ex - factory price was 12,100, up 200 daily and 600 weekly [4]. - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was 36, down 76 daily and 236 weekly. The import profit was 245, down 41 daily and up 313 weekly. The export profit was 417, up 35 daily and down 274 weekly [4]. BD (Butadiene) - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 9,475, up 25 daily. The Jiangsu market price was 9,250, unchanged daily and up 500 weekly. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,200, up 100 daily and 400 weekly. The CFR China price was 1,105, up 100 daily and 140 weekly [4]. - **Profit**: The ethylene cracking profit was N/A. The carbon four extraction profit was N/A. The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 590, unchanged daily and up 640 weekly. The import profit was 388, down 783 daily and 295 weekly. The export profit was - 1778, up 205 daily and 236 weekly [4]. - **Production Profit**: The styrene - butadiene production profit was 950, up 63 daily and 213 weekly. The ABS production profit was N/A. The SBS production profit was - 340, up 55 daily and 142 weekly [4]