11月14日，国家统计局数据显示，10月份，社会消费品零售总额46291亿元，同比增长2.9%；环比增长0.16%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售 额42036亿元，同比增长4.0%。按消费类型分，10月份，商品零售额41092亿元，同比增长2.8%；餐饮收入5199亿元，增长3.8%。1—10月，社 会消费品零售总额412169亿元，同比增长4.3%。 1—10月，全国网上零售额127916亿元，同比增长9.6%。其中，实物商品网上零售额103984亿元，增长6.3%，占社会消费品零售总额的比重为 25.2%；在实物商品网上零售额中，吃类、穿类、用类商品分别增长15.1%、3.6%、5.1%。（国家统计局） ｜点评｜ 受长假效应带动，10月服务消费增速进一步加快，社零增速整体略高于预期。餐饮业明显回暖，餐饮收入增速显著提高，商务宴请等 中高端市场或有所复苏。"以旧换新"政策影响下，不同品类商品消费表现分化。去年基数较高的汽车、家电等，消费增速明显放缓；今年新纳 入补贴范围的通讯、办公类则保持较快增长。此外，尽管"双11"活动提前启动，但拉动作用有限，10月网上零售额增速略有放缓。 11月13日，中国人民银行公 ...

图源：视觉中国 2025年11月15日凌晨，第17个双11购物节落下帷幕。当滚动的数字最终定格，弥漫在杭州阿里巴巴西溪园区的空气，不再是过去几年的焦虑与守成，而是一 种久违的"进攻"气息。 根据淘天最新数据，2025年天猫双11以实现四年来最好增长收官。近600个品牌成交破亿，34091个品牌同比增长翻倍，18048个同比增长超3倍，13081个同 比增长超5倍，均超去年同期。 今年3月，京东外卖入场在行业内撕开裂口，阿里也迅速看到了这个高频场景尚未被挖掘的巨大潜力。不过，蒋凡的选择是"换一个地方打"，没有让饿了么 孤军奋战，而是反手将其"并入"了淘宝。 一个月后，原淘宝"小时达"升级为"淘宝闪购"，由饿了么为其提供商品供给、配送运力及技术支持，并展示在淘宝App首页的一级入口。6月，阿里再将饿了 么、飞猪并入阿里电商事业群。 这不仅仅是一场"例行"年终大促，还是蒋凡回归并执掌阿里电商整整一年后，交出的首份年度答卷。 一年前，2024年11月，当蒋凡被任命为新成立的阿里电商事业群CEO时，他面对的是一个阿里巴巴联合创始人、董事局主席蔡崇信口中"落后了"的阿里。如 今，他带领核心团队——电商事业群发起了一场"奇 ...

Consumer Sector - The "14th Five-Year Plan" focused on supply-side structural reforms, while the "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes direct stimulation of demand, aiming to significantly boost consumer spending and enhance domestic circulation [2][3] - The goal of the "15th Five-Year Plan" includes increasing the consumer rate and ensuring that domestic demand continues to be the main driver of economic growth, with expectations for retail sales growth to outpace GDP growth [3] - Policies such as government and enterprise subsidies are expected to directly stimulate consumer spending, with a shift from structural optimization to activating consumption [2][3] E-commerce and Retail Innovations - New retail models like live streaming and instant retail are emerging growth areas, leveraging platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou to create new consumer scenarios [4] - Instant retail is evolving from meeting urgent needs to catering to a broader range of consumer demands, creating a positive feedback loop that drives both supply and demand [4][5] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" calls for expanding the supply of quality consumer goods and services, with e-commerce platforms expected to focus on balancing price and quality [3][5] Travel and Tourism - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to enhance the quality of tourism services and promote the integration of culture and tourism, with OTA platforms playing a key role in this transformation [6][7] - Domestic tourism is being enriched through cultural elements, while inbound tourism policies are being optimized to lower barriers and enhance the experience for international visitors [7][8] - OTA platforms are responding to national policies by expanding their service offerings and improving the overall travel experience for both domestic and international tourists [6][7] Technology and AI Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes accelerating AI innovation and application, with a focus on enhancing efficiency in existing businesses and driving new demand through AI technologies [9][10] - The demand for cloud computing is surging due to the growing need for AI applications, with Chinese cloud providers expected to benefit significantly from this trend [10] - AI applications are anticipated to revolutionize content production and advertising, with platforms leveraging AI to enhance user engagement and operational efficiency [11][12]

能源股集体上涨，埃克森美孚涨超1%，雪佛龙涨逾1%，康菲石油涨超2%，斯伦贝谢涨近2%，西方石 油涨超1%。 记者丨黎雨桐 编辑丨陈思颖 周五（11月14日），美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一。截至收盘，道指跌0.65%报47147.48点，标普500指数 跌0.05%报6734.11点，纳指涨0.13%报22900.59点。 | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 47147.48 | 22900.59 | 6734.11 | | -309.74 -0.65% | +30.23 +0.13% | -3.38 -0.05% | | 中国金龙指数 | 纳指100期货 | 标普500期货 | | 7855.22 | 25147.50 | 6765.25 | | -128.72 -1.61% | +52.75 +0.21% | +5.25 +0.08% | 大型科技股涨跌互现，万得美国科技七巨头指数涨0.35%。个股方面，英伟达涨超1%，微软涨逾1%， 特斯拉涨0.59%；亚马逊跌超1%，谷歌跌0.78%，苹果跌0.2%，脸书跌0.07%。 银行股多数下跌，摩根大通跌近2% ...

Core Insights - Bridgewater has significantly reduced its holdings in Nvidia by 65.3%, from 7.23 million shares to 2.51 million shares as of September 30, indicating a strategic shift towards risk management [1][3][5] - The fund has increased its investment in U.S. large-cap ETFs, with SPY holdings rising by 75.3% to 4.05 million shares, making it the largest position in the portfolio [1][9] - Bridgewater has also reduced its stakes in major tech companies like Google and Meta by 52.6% and 48.3% respectively, while also cutting back on Microsoft and Amazon [1][12] Summary by Category Nvidia Holdings - Bridgewater's holdings in Nvidia have dropped from 7.23 million shares to 2.51 million shares, a reduction of 65.3% [1][3] - This drastic cut follows a significant increase in the previous quarter, suggesting a shift from trend-following to risk management [3][5] U.S. Large-Cap ETFs - The fund has increased its position in SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 75.3%, now holding 4.05 million shares, which constitutes 10.62% of the portfolio [1][9] - iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) has also seen an increase, now making up 6.69% of the portfolio [9][10] Reduction in Tech Holdings - Bridgewater has reduced its holdings in Google by 52.6%, Meta by 48.3%, and Microsoft by 36% [1][12] - The fund has also completely exited positions in 10 significant stocks, including Lyft and Spotify, indicating a broader strategy to divest from non-core assets [12][14] Risk Management Strategy - The adjustments reflect a clear intent to lower industry concentration and avoid overexposure to high-volatility sectors like AI and technology [10][11] - The fund aims to embrace stable cash flows from large-cap stocks during the economic late-cycle phase, which is seen as less risky compared to growth stocks [10][11] Emerging Markets and Other Investments - Bridgewater has continued to lower its exposure to emerging market ETFs, reflecting concerns over their vulnerability amid tightening global liquidity [14] - Despite the overall risk-reduction strategy, the fund has made significant increases in positions in companies like Netflix and MercadoLibre, focusing on firms with strong cash flows and stable earnings [15][16]

新的篇章也意味着要回应当今世界面临的挑战，而塞尔维亚能在其中发挥重要作用。塞尔维亚已被公认 为数字中心——我们的第一大出口产品是软件，政府和私营部门都完成了深度数字化转型。过去十年 间，我们的软件出口增长了十倍。 "如果你想看到未来，就必须去中国——或者更广义地说，去亚洲。那里的活力、求知欲，以及将知识 应用于现实的能力，是世界上无可比拟的。作为一名塞尔维亚人和欧洲人，我认为，若要打造一个能够 应对技术变革的强大欧洲，就必须与中国建立坚实的伙伴关系。" 近日，在2025"一带一路"贸易投资论坛上，塞尔维亚工商会会长马尔科.恰泽接受21世纪经济报道记者 专访时表达了上述观点。他认为，共建"一带一路"倡议正进入新篇章，更加注重思想与创新交流，可持 续发展、绿色转型和数字化将深度融入这一全球合作平台。在新的阶段，作为区域数字中心的塞尔维亚 可以发挥"智慧枢纽"作用，为全球供应链注入新附加值。 谈及塞尔维亚的独特优势，恰泽表示，塞尔维亚不仅与中国签有自贸协定，还可零关税进入包括欧盟在 内的超过30亿消费者市场。他建议中国企业充分利用塞尔维亚的战略区位，将其作为进入欧洲市场的门 户。"塞尔维亚是中国企业在欧洲发展的最佳 ...

Core Points - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index experienced a decline of over 1.6% [1] - Alibaba's stock fell nearly 4% [1] - JD.com and Xpeng Motors both saw declines exceeding 4% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant slowdown in revenue growth for its core product categories due to the diminishing impact of national subsidies, while service revenue exceeded expectations [1][2]. Revenue Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's revenue reached RMB 299.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, surpassing market expectations by 1.6% [1]. - Product revenue grew by 10.5% year-on-year, with the core category of digital appliances experiencing a notable slowdown, growing only 4.9% due to a high base effect from last year's subsidies [1]. - Daily necessities revenue increased by 18.8% year-on-year, benefiting from cross-selling in the takeaway business [1]. - Service revenue saw a robust growth of 30.8%, driven by advertising and logistics revenue growth of 23.7% and 35.0%, respectively [1]. Profitability and Costs - The overall gross margin for Q3 was 16.9%, a decline of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - Adjusted net profit fell by 56% to RMB 5.8 billion, although it was better than market expectations [2]. - The adjusted net profit margin decreased to 1.9% from 5.1% in the same period last year, primarily due to a 111% increase in marketing expenses for takeaway subsidies, which reached RMB 21.1 billion [2]. - New business revenue nearly doubled year-on-year, with a sequential growth of 11%, driven by delivery income [2]. Business Outlook - The company maintains a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 146 / USD 38, adjusting the FY25E revenue forecast to RMB 1,337.7 billion [3]. - The target price corresponds to FY25E/FY26E P/E ratios of 13.2x and 8.0x, respectively [3]. - The company expects continued strong growth in the daily necessities category driven by takeaway services and robust service business performance [3].

Core Insights - JD.com reported Q3 2025 revenue of 299.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, with retail revenue at 250.6 billion yuan, up 11.4% year-on-year [1][2] - The retail operating profit reached 14.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.7%, exceeding expectations [1][3] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.8 billion yuan, down 56% year-on-year, but better than market expectations [3] Revenue Performance - The company's total revenue for Q3 2025 was 299.1 billion yuan, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 13.1% growth [2] - Retail revenue was 250.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, also exceeding the expected growth of 10.3% [2] - The 1P category saw a 4.9% year-on-year increase in revenue, while the daily necessities category grew by 18.8% year-on-year [2] Profitability Analysis - JD.com's gross margin for Q3 was 16.9%, slightly above the expected 16.8%, but down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Retail operating profit margin was 5.9%, with retail operating profit of 14.8 billion yuan, significantly higher than the expected 13.6% growth [3] - New business losses were 15.7 billion yuan, with food delivery losses narrowing compared to Q2, while investments in JD's new businesses expanded [3][4] Business Development - The food delivery business showed steady growth, with GMV increasing by double digits, driven by order volume and higher-value orders [4] - User engagement in the food delivery segment improved, with a cohort conversion rate nearing 50% for early adopters [4] - The company anticipates further narrowing of food delivery losses in Q4, with a focus on the synergy between food delivery and retail operations [4] Investment Outlook - JD.com maintains a strong recommendation rating, with expectations for retail revenue and profit to grow in double digits year-on-year [1][4] - Projected Non-GAAP net profits for 2025-2027 are 31.8 billion, 36.8 billion, and 55.6 billion yuan, respectively, with a target price of 136.5 HKD per share based on a 10x PE ratio for 2026 [4]

Core Insights - JD.com's Q3 2025 revenue increased by 14.9% to 299.1 billion yuan, outperforming both consensus expectations and Huatai's forecast of 13.0% and 14.0% respectively [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.8 billion yuan, down 56.0% year-on-year, but better than consensus and Huatai's forecast of -68% [1] - The retail segment's operating profit exceeded expectations, contributing to the overall performance [1] Retail Performance - JD Retail's total revenue for Q3 2025 was 250.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, with operating profit rising by 27.7% to 14.8 billion yuan, surpassing consensus expectations of 13.0% [2] - Revenue from the electronics category grew by 4.9% to 128.6 billion yuan, reflecting the impact of the trade-in program, although high base effects from national subsidies began to show [2] - Daily necessities category revenue increased by 18.8% to 97.5 billion yuan, continuing an upward trend with double-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters [2] User Engagement and Efficiency - Active user growth was robust, with a 40% year-on-year increase in Q3 2025, surpassing 700 million annual active users by October 2025 [2] - User purchase frequency also rose by 40%, indicating improved customer engagement [2] - The grocery, fashion, and health categories within daily necessities achieved double-digit revenue growth, expected to continue into Q4 2025 due to enhanced product structure and service quality [2] Delivery Business Insights - JD's delivery service saw a double-digit growth in GMV in Q3 2025, driven by increased order volume and improved order structure [2] - The overall operating loss in the delivery segment narrowed, with average unit economics improving due to better supply-side management and operational efficiency [2] - The synergy between delivery and retail businesses is strengthening, contributing positively to overall profitability [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 30.5 billion, 38.1 billion, and 51.1 billion yuan, reflecting better-than-expected performance in retail and non-operating income [3] - The valuation window has been rolled forward to 2026, with a target price of $51.04 per ADS and HK$198.32 per ordinary share [3]