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铁矿石早报-20250521
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-05-21 01:37
1/1 2/1 铁矿石早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/5/21 地区 品种 最新 日变化 周变化 折盘面 最新 日变化 周变化 进口利润 100.35 -0.75 1.75 纽曼粉 756 2 -1 808.5 96.70 -0.05 -0.10 -24.89 PB粉 764 2 -1 809.7 99.30 -0.05 -0.20 -2.62 麦克粉 744 2 -1 812.8 95.05 -0.10 -0.40 -0.98 金布巴 724 2 0 815.1 91.10 -0.10 0.00 3.35 主流 混合粉 674 -1 -1 798.6 85.55 -0.15 -0.10 -0.58 超特粉 632 -1 2 842.0 82.30 0.05 0.10 -8.51 卡粉 854 -1 1 795.6 110.95 -0.35 -0.75 -8.09 巴混 780 2 4 791.9 100.85 -0.25 -0.55 -1.55 巴粗IOC6 737 2 0 808.4 主流 巴粗SSFT 750 -2 -6 巴西精粉 849 -3 0 乌克兰精粉 818 2 -2 912.5 61%印粉 ...
这边风景独好:申万期货早间评论-20250521
申银万国期货研究· 2025-05-21 00:30
首席点评: 这边风景独好 中国人民银行行长潘功胜:实施好适度宽松的货币政策,满足实体经济有效融资需求,保持金融总量合 理增长。国际局势:印度和巴基斯坦已同意在五月底前将军队撤至冲突前的位置。伊朗最高领袖哈梅内 伊:我认为与美国的核谈判不会成功。稳定向好的经济环境是发展的基石,对比纷乱的国际局势,坚定 看好国内大循环、大市场走好自己的路。 重点品种: 股指、 国债 、铜 股指: 美国三大指数小幅下跌,上一交易日股指上涨,美容护理板块领涨,国防军工板块领跌,全市 成交额 1.21万亿元,其中IH2506上涨0.45%,IF2506上涨0.63%,IC2506上涨0.58%,IM2506上涨 0.88%。资金方面,5月19日融资余额增加35.97亿元至17984.54亿元。5月7日国新办发布会发布了利好 政策,5月12日中美关税谈判取得阶段性成果,短期利好股市。当前我国主要指数的估值水平仍然处于 较低水平,中长期资金入市配置的性价比仍然较高。从当前走势看,短期暂无持续向上突破的迹象,建 议股指期货先观望,股指期权以卖权为主。 国债: 小幅下跌, 10年期国债活跃券收益率上行至1.665%。央行公开市场操作净投放17 ...
瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20250520
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 09:09
研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料,瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠,但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证,据此投资,责任自负。本报告不构 成个人投资建议,客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有,未经书面许可,任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、 复制和发布。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院,且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铁矿石产业链日报 2025/5/20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 725.00 | +2.50↑ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 734,150 | -3527↓ | | | I 9-1合约价差(元/吨) | 36.5 | +1.00↑ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -16926 | -3052↓ | | | I 大商所仓单(手) ...
广发期货《黑色》日报-20250520
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 06:28
| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年5月20日 | | | 問數波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 即值 | 张跃 | 基产 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3190 | 3210 | -20 | ਰੇਤੋ | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3220 | 3220 | O | 123 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3340 | 3360 | -20 | 243 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3115 | 3126 | -11 | 75 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3069 | 3082 | -13 | 121 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3097 | 3107 | -10 | ਰੇਤੋ | | | | | | | | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3280 | 3290 | -10 | ટેર | | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3200 | 3210 | - ...
铁矿石早报-20250520
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 03:50
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 (200) (150) (100) (50) 0 50 100 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 - 2022 2023 2024 2025 / 50 80 110 140 170 200 230 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 -PB 2022 2023 2024 2025 / 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 -PB 2022 2023 2024 2025 / 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 PB - 2022 2023 2024 2025 / ...
钢矿周度报告2025-05-19:贸易冲突缓和,黑色低位反弹-20250519
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-19 08:41
贸易冲突缓和,黑色低位反弹 钢矿周度报告 2025-05-19 正信期货产业研究中心 黑色产业组 研究员:谢晨 研究员:杨辉 投资咨询号:Z0001703 投资咨询号:Z0019319 Email:xiec@zxqh.net Email:yangh@zxqh.net 报告主要观点 | 报告主要观点 | | --- | | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢 | 价格 | 现货大幅拉涨,盘面低位反弹 | | | 供给 | 高炉产量高位回调,电炉产量止跌回升 | | | 库存 | 建材库存加速去化,板材库存同步走低 | | | 需求 | 建材需求环比强势,板材需求韧性十足 | | 材 | 利润 | 高炉利润继续扩大,电炉谷电转盈利 | | | 基差 | 基差小幅收窄,注意反套机会 | | | | 中美贸易冲突有所缓和,国内社融显示财政发力明显,后续政策支撑力度或逐渐减弱。产业变化:上周高炉小幅减产,铁水产量略有下滑,电炉止跌回升, 整体供应仍在高位;热卷减产明显螺纹供应增加;需求方面,水泥混凝土发运回升,建材需求偏强,板类受抢出口影响,需求延续性较好;库存来看,建 ...
广发期货《有色》日报-20250519
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-19 05:51
| 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月19日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3210 | 3240 | -30 | 103 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3220 | 3230 | -10 | 113 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3360 | 3370 | -10 | 253 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3126 | 3075 | ਟੀ | 84 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3082 | 3118 | -36 | 128 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3107 | 3150 | -43 | 103 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3290 | 3300 | -10 | 52 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3210 | 3230 | -20 | -28 | | | 热卷现 ...
研究所晨会观点精萃-20250519
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-05-19 05:27
投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2011]1771号 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 精 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号:F0256916 投资咨询证号:Z0000671 电话:021-80128600-8632 邮箱:jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号:F03092124 投资咨询证号:Z0018827 电话:021-80128600-8631 邮箱:mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号:F3033924 投资咨询证号:Z0013026 电话:021-80128600-8621 邮箱:Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号:F03091165 投资咨询证号:Z0019876 联系电话:021-80128600-8630 邮箱:liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号:F03089928 投资咨询证号:Z0019740 电话:021-80128600-8622 邮箱:wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 【宏观】海外方面,美国总统表示将在未来两到三周内对许多国家征收新的关税, 美国关税风险重燃;而 ...
铁矿石早报-20250519
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-05-19 02:43
| | | | | 现货 | | | 远期 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地区 | 品种 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 折盘面 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 进口利润 | | 普氏62指数 | | 102.20 | -0.60 | 2.25 | | | | | | | | 纽曼粉 PB粉 | 758 765 | -8 -8 | 10 11 | 810.7 810.8 | 97.35 100.00 | -1.30 -1.35 | 3.10 3.00 | -27.20 -6.10 | | 澳洲 | 麦克粉 | 746 | -8 | 16 | 815.0 | 95.60 | -1.55 | 3.25 | -2.43 | | | 金布巴 | 726 | -10 | 11 | 817.2 | 91.85 | -0.90 | 3.25 | 0.34 | | 主流 | 混合粉 | 680 | -3 | 18 | 805.1 | 86.10 | -1.15 | 2.65 | 1.89 | | | 超特 ...
山金期货黑色板块日报-20250519
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-05-19 02:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The outcome of the China - US trade negotiations far exceeded market expectations, boosting market confidence. The poor credit data in April confirmed the necessity of significant measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the policy - side positives have basically materialized. The real estate market in core cities has stabilized, while the low - tier city real estate market is still in the bottom - building process. The market is gradually shifting from strong reality to weak reality, with short - term support from the significant mutual tariff reduction between China and the US, but the weak expectations may not have changed substantially [2]. - Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, and steel billets have good profits with high export growth. The molten iron production is in a recovery trend, but if a production restriction policy is introduced in the future, it will further suppress iron ore demand. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The slowdown in port inventory decline and the high proportion of trade ore inventory put pressure on futures prices. Short - term price rebounds are mainly boosted by the optimistic progress of trade negotiations [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Situation**: The market has rebounded from the low level. The production has increased, factory inventories have declined, social inventories have continued to fall, total inventories have decreased, and apparent demand has recovered. The rumor of production restrictions has limited impact on the market, but the production side believes that the industry needs to reduce production [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: In the short - term, there has been a significant rebound, and the downward trend has entered a low - level oscillation [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see. After the negative factors are fully priced in and sufficient adjustments are made, consider going long at low prices. Be cautious about chasing up to prevent significant adjustments after the short - term positives are realized [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of threaded rod and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have shown certain changes compared to the previous day and week. For example, the closing price of the threaded rod main contract is 3082 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan (-1.15%) from the previous day and up 60 yuan (1.99%) from the previous week [2]. - **Production and Inventory**: The output of threaded rods has increased by 1.34% week - on - week, while the output of hot - rolled coils has decreased by 2.62% week - on - week. The social and factory inventories of both have declined [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Steel mills' profitability is acceptable, and steel billet exports are growing rapidly. The molten iron production is in a recovery trend, but future production restriction policies may suppress iron ore demand. The supply side is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The slowdown in port inventory decline and high trade ore inventory ratio put pressure on prices [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The price has fallen to the long - term trend line and rebounded in the short - term, indicating that the medium - term downward trend may end and enter an oscillation or rebound phase [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Mainly judge based on technical trends. Hold short positions lightly and exit in time when the price is low in the future [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The settlement prices of iron ore futures and spot prices have changed. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 728 yuan/dry ton, up 32 yuan (4.60%) from the previous week [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Australian iron ore shipments increased by 0.19% week - on - week, while Brazilian shipments decreased by 16.42% week - on - week. The port inventory decreased by 0.51% week - on - week [4]. 3.3 Industry News - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports decreased by 72.62 tons week - on - week, and the average daily port clearance volume increased by 8.68 tons. The total inventory in 47 ports decreased by 17.72 tons week - on - week, and the average daily port clearance volume increased by 11.08 tons [6]. - Mysteel research shows that the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.47 percentage points week - on - week, and the steel mill profitability rate increased by 0.44 percentage points week - on - week. The average daily molten iron output decreased by 0.87 tons week - on - week [6]. - According to Mysteel, mainstream steel mills in the Shandong market lowered the coke purchase price, with wet - quenched coke down 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke down 55 yuan/ton. Some steel mills in the Shandong market also lowered the coke purchase price by 55 yuan/ton [7]. - SteelSilver e - commerce data shows that the total urban inventory this week is 772.11 tons, a decrease of 41.98 tons from the previous week. Among them, the inventory of construction steel decreased by 26.88 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 12.82 tons [7].