1. Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of iron ore is supported by pre - holiday restocking by steel mills due to low raw material inventories and stable molten iron production, but the market remains cautious about the recovery of terminal demand after the Spring Festival. The price lacks continuous driving force and is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, with attention needed on the sustainability of post - holiday restocking and changes in the steel mill start - up rhythm [3]. - The overall market situation shows a relatively loose supply - demand relationship. The expectation of winter restocking provides short - term resilience, but high inventories restrict the upward space. There are significant differences in short - term trends due to the game between the expectation of winter restocking and high inventory pressure [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - **Global Shipment Volume**: This week, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,677.10 tons, a week - on - week increase of 212.60 tons (+6.14%); Australian shipments were 2,113.70 tons, a week - on - week increase of 163.10 tons (+8.36%); Brazilian shipments were 945.90 tons, a week - on - week increase of 81.80 tons (+9.47%); the combined shipment volume of Australia and Brazil was 3,059.60 tons, a week - on - week increase of 244.90 tons (+8.70%) [3][36]. - **Four Major Mines' Shipment Volume**: The report presents the shipment volume data and trends of four major mines (BHP, Rio Tinto, FMG, and Vale) in different time periods [44][45][48]. - **Freight Rates**: The freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao dropped to $8.91/ton, a week - on - week decrease of $1.45/ton (-13.99%); the freight rate from Brazil to Qingdao was $23.62/ton, a week - on - week decrease of $0.68/ton (-2.80%) [56]. - **Iron Ore Arrival**: This week, the arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports in China was 2,601.40 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45.30 tons (-1.71%) [58]. - **Domestic Mines**: The capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 57.90%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.86% (-1.46%); the daily output of iron concentrate was 36.56 tons/day, a week - on - week decrease of 0.54 tons/day (-1.46%) [60]. 3.2 Demand - **Steel Enterprise Production**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills in the country was 85.26%, a week - on - week increase of 0.32% (+0.38%); the daily average molten iron output was 227.43 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.85 tons (+0.38%); the profit - making ratio of steel mills was 38.10%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87% (+2.34%) [70]. - **Sintered Powder and Furnace Charge Ratio**: The daily average consumption of domestic sintered powder was 7.82 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 tons (-0.26%); the daily average consumption of imported sintered powder was 60.70 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39 tons (-0.64%) [72]. - **Global Steel Output**: The report shows the production data and trends of global blast furnace pig iron, crude steel, and China's blast furnace pig iron and crude steel in different time periods [80][82][84][87]. - **Port Despatch**: The report presents the seasonal data and trends of 45 - port despatch volume and the daily average despatch volume of Qingdao Port [92][94]. 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: The iron ore inventory at 45 ports in China was 15,970.89 tons, a week - on - week increase of 112.23 tons (+0.71%); the iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 16,721.79 tons, a week - on - week increase of 101.83 tons (+0.61%) [96]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The imported ore inventory of 247 sample steel mills was 8,946.54 tons, a week - on - week increase of 86.35 tons (+0.97%); the imported sintered powder inventory was 1,261.72 tons, a week - on - week increase of 55.47 tons (+4.60%) [105]. 3.4 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: - **Main Contract Situation and Basis**: The price of the main contract fluctuated strongly, with a settlement price of 789.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15.50 yuan/ton (+2.00%); the basis was 41.83 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15.00 yuan/ton (+55.90%); the Platts Iron Ore Price Index was 108.50 dollars/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.70 dollars/dry ton (+0.65%); the ratio of rebar to iron ore in the main contract was 3.961 [7]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The inter - month spread structure continued to be in contango, with the 9 - 1 spread at 36.50 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread at 15.50 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread at 21.00 yuan/ton [9]. - **Spot Market**: - **Iron Ore Spot Price**: The report shows the price trends of various iron ore products such as the Platts Iron Ore Index, port spot prices, and Tangshan 66% iron concentrate powder [20][21]. - **Price Difference between Lump Ore and Powder Ore**: The report presents the price difference trends between different types of lump ore and powder ore [23][26]. - **Price Difference between Different Grades**: The report shows the price difference trends between different grades of iron ore [29][31]. 3.5 Other Information - **Weekly Focus on Iron Ore**: It includes important news and industrial chain dynamics, such as the suspension of the expansion project of Brazil's Samarco mine due to environmental permit issues and various macro - news [4]. - **Summary of Market Views**: There are 5 bullish views, 7 neutral views, and 3 bearish views this week; last week, there were 5 bullish views, 7 neutral views, and 1 bearish view. The core of the divergence lies in the game between the expectation of winter restocking and high inventory pressure under the relatively loose supply - demand situation [6]. - **Profit Situation**: The profit of Tangshan rebar was - 105.04 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 21.96 yuan/ton (-17.29%); the profit of Tangshan hot - rolled coil was - 118.58 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 21.69 yuan/ton (-15.46%) [112].

Core Viewpoint - The recent military actions by the U.S. against Venezuela have raised concerns in the global commodity markets, particularly regarding oil and mineral supplies, as Venezuela is a significant supplier of key resources [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Oil Market - Venezuela, holding the largest proven oil reserves globally, currently has an oil production of approximately 1 million barrels per day, which is only 0.8% of global oil production [3]. - The U.S. airstrikes have heightened fears of a disruption in Venezuelan oil exports, which are currently around 600,000 barrels per day, significantly lower than historical levels [3]. - Analysts predict that the airstrikes will provide short-term support for oil prices, although the extent of this impact remains uncertain due to other factors influencing global oil supply and demand [3][4]. Group 2: Impact on Mineral Resources - Venezuela is a key supplier of copper, accounting for 5% to 8% of global reserves, and also provides essential minerals like bauxite and uranium, which are critical for the energy and defense industries [3]. - The geopolitical tensions may lead to increased prices for these minerals due to supply concerns, with gold prices expected to remain strong as investors seek safe-haven assets [3][4]. Group 3: Broader Market Implications - The ongoing conflict may lead to a divergence in market performance, with energy and gold sectors potentially benefiting while other sectors may face challenges [5]. - The situation could also influence domestic markets, with analysts suggesting that the opening of the domestic futures market should be closely monitored for potential volatility driven by geopolitical developments [5][6].

劳埃德金属与能源公司股价上涨3.5%，因季度铁矿石销量大增 。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are affected by the warm commodity market but constrained by the weak reality. They are supported by costs but suppressed by weakening demand and possible tightening of export expectations, and are expected to maintain a volatile trend [3] - The iron ore market has a neutral fundamental situation. High supply and rigid demand are in balance, and prices are expected to move in a volatile manner [22] - For coal and coke, the import pressure in January may ease. The price of coking coal may rebound if the resumption of domestic mines falls short of expectations. The supply - demand structure of coke may improve if the iron - making production of downstream steel mills increases rapidly [33] - Ferroalloy prices may be suppressed by corporate hedging when they rebound to a certain level, but the downside is limited due to cost support [48] - The over - supply expectation of soda ash is intensifying, and the demand expectation is weakening. High inventory restricts the price [63] - For glass, the cold - repair of production lines before the Spring Festival may affect long - term pricing, and the high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested [86] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts changed compared to the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3100 yuan/ton (down 13 yuan from the previous day), and the hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3221 yuan/ton (down 56 yuan from the previous day). The month - to - month spreads also showed changes [4] - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions had slight fluctuations. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different contracts and regions also changed. For example, the 01 rebar basis (Shanghai) was 200 yuan/ton on December 31, 2025, up 13 yuan from the previous day [9][11] - **Other Ratios**: The volume - screw difference, rebar - iron ore ratio, and rebar - coke ratio were relatively stable on December 31, 2025, compared to the previous day [15][19] Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore contracts showed small changes. For example, the 01 contract closed at 805 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan from the previous day). The basis of different contracts also changed [23] - **Fundamental Data**: As of December 26, 2025, the daily average pig iron production was 226.58 tons (up 0.03 tons week - on - week), the 45 - port desilting volume was 315.06 tons (up 1.61 tons week - on - week), and the 45 - port inventory was 15858.66 tons (up 346.03 tons week - on - week) [27] Coal and Coke - **Futures Spreads and Ratios**: On December 31, 2025, the month - to - month spreads of coking coal and coke contracts changed. The coking profit on the disk decreased, and the ratios of ore - coke, screw - coke, and carbon - coal also changed [36] - **Spot Prices and Profits**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions were relatively stable. The import profits of different types of coal and the export profit of coke showed some fluctuations [39] Ferroalloy - **Silicon Iron**: On December 31, 2025, the basis of silicon iron in Ningxia was - 22 yuan/ton (up 78 yuan from the previous day), and the month - to - month spreads also changed. The spot prices in different regions were stable or had small increases [49] - **Silicon Manganese**: The basis of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia was 80 yuan/ton (up 22 yuan from the previous day). The month - to - month spreads and spot prices in different regions also changed [50][52] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash contracts decreased. The month - to - month spreads changed significantly. For example, the month - to - month spread (9 - 1) increased by 25 yuan, with a growth rate of 17.61% [64] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions were relatively stable, with only slight changes in some regions [64] Glass - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of glass contracts were basically unchanged. The month - to - month spreads and basis in different regions changed slightly [87] - **Sales and Production**: The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions of glass showed fluctuations. For example, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe on December 26, 2025, was 105 [88]

在全球铁矿石市场的博弈大棋局中，中国正上演一场堪称亘古未有的华丽逆转。从过去被动接受国际定价、任人宰割的窘境，到如今逐步掌握谈判主动权、 推动定价机制重构，这不仅是国家资源战略的成功演绎，更是一场牵动全球产业链的产业革命开端，深刻改写着全球资源治理的原有逻辑。 自1981年铁矿石长期合同机制确立以来，中国凭借持续扩张的钢铁产业，已然成长为全球最大的铁矿石消费国，长期占据全球七成以上的消费份额。但令人 遗憾的是，过去数十年间，这一巨大消费市场的定价权却始终被美、澳等西方国家及国际矿商牢牢掌控，令中国在国际贸易中陷入"买得越多、亏得越多"的 被动境地。据行业测算，中国每年因被动接受虚高定价，不得不额外支出超过100亿美元的成本，巨额利益源源不断流入外国矿企口袋。然而，随着中国产 业布局的深化与市场话语权的觉醒，这种失衡局面正在悄然发生根本性转变。 事实上，自2004年起，中国就已稳居全球铁矿石最大买家地位，但美、澳等国的矿商却凭借资源垄断优势，持续推高价格攫取暴利。以力拓、必和必拓、淡 水河谷、FMG为首的四大矿商，垄断了全球70%的铁矿石资源供应，形成了强议价能力的寡头格局。尤其在全球供应链日益复杂、国际地缘政 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent refusal of China to accept iron ore shipments from BHP signifies a shift in the long-standing dynamics of the iron ore market, where China, previously a passive buyer, is now asserting its negotiating power [1][5][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - China's rejection of BHP's iron ore is not merely a technical return but a clear statement of changing attitudes towards the iron ore supply chain [5][10]. - Historically, China has been a submissive buyer in the iron ore market, accepting subpar quality and high prices due to its dependency on steel production [3][12]. - The iron ore pricing power has been concentrated in the hands of a few Western mining companies, leading to a structural imbalance in profit distribution [8][14]. Group 2: Strategic Shifts - The refusal to accept BHP's shipment is a signal of a new phase in negotiations, where China is willing to challenge the old rules of engagement [10][16]. - The development of the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea is pivotal, as it offers higher quality ore and gives China a controlling stake, thus altering the supply dynamics [18][19]. - Simandou's strategic importance lies in its ability to provide a viable alternative to existing suppliers, enhancing China's bargaining position [19][22]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The shift in procurement strategy aims to reclaim lost bargaining power and support domestic steel companies, particularly smaller firms struggling with high costs [16][24]. - By emphasizing quality and introducing alternatives like Simandou, China is gradually reducing the excessive profits of mining companies, forcing them to adapt to a more competitive pricing environment [22][24]. - The evolving landscape indicates a move away from the previously accepted norms, suggesting that the era of passive acceptance in the iron ore market is coming to an end [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the rebar and hot - rolled coil sector, the market is in a state of weak supply and demand during the off - season. With steel mill profits dropping and the consumption peak passing, steel mill output is expected to decline slowly. The recent sharp rebound in coking coal prices has increased cost support for the futures market. The futures prices are expected to fluctuate upwards. Technically, the 05 contract of the rebar and hot - rolled coil has not broken out of the recent trading range [2]. - For the iron ore sector, the Ministry of Finance's statement has boosted market confidence. However, the overall output and apparent demand of the five major steel products have continued to decline week - on - week. As the off - season approaches, pig iron output is likely to decline seasonally. The high global shipments and rising port inventories are putting pressure on futures prices. Technically, the 05 contract has broken through the September high and may start a mid - term upward trend [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Supply - Demand Situation - Last week, the output of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, while the total output of the five major varieties decreased week - on - week. The overall inventory continued to decline. The apparent demand for rebar decreased, while that for hot - rolled coil increased. The overall apparent demand for the five major varieties decreased. The market remains in a state of weak supply and demand [2]. Price and Spread Data - Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices showed different changes. For example, the rebar steel main contract price increased slightly, while the hot - rolled coil main contract price decreased slightly. The basis and spread of futures contracts also changed, such as the rebar steel main basis decreased, while the hot - rolled coil main basis increased [2]. Production and Inventory Data - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased slightly, and the daily average pig iron output increased slightly. The proportion of profitable steel mills increased. The output of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased. The social and steel mill inventories of the five major varieties decreased, except for the rebar steel mill inventory which increased slightly. The steel billet inventory in the Tangshan area increased [2]. Apparent Demand and Transaction Data - The apparent demand for the five major varieties decreased slightly. The national construction steel trading volume and the wire and screw terminal procurement volume decreased [2]. Operation Suggestion - Hold long positions and conduct mid - term trading [2]. Iron Ore Market Environment - The Ministry of Finance's statement has boosted market confidence. However, the demand side is weakening as the off - season approaches, and the supply side has high global shipments and rising port inventories [4]. Price and Spread Data - Iron ore spot and futures prices showed different changes. For example, the DCE iron ore main contract settlement price decreased slightly, while the Platts 62% index increased slightly. The basis and spread of futures contracts also changed [5]. Supply - Related Data - The overseas iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil increased. The iron ore arrival volume at northern six ports increased, and the daily average port clearance volume increased slightly. The port inventory, port trade ore inventory, and the sinter powder inventory of 64 sample steel mills all increased [5]. Production Data - The iron concentrate powder output of 186 national sample mines decreased [5]. Operation Suggestion - Hold long positions and conduct mid - term trading [4]. Industry News - India has imposed a three - year import tariff on some steel products, with rates between 11% and 12%, aiming to prevent the influx of low - cost Chinese steel [7]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China increased by 246.21 tons compared to last Monday. The port inventory continued to accumulate [7]. - From December 22 to December 28, 2025, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased by 122.5 tons, reaching the lowest level in the fourth quarter of this year [7]. - According to the CISA, the floating value of the coking coal long - term agreement coal - steel linkage in December 2025 decreased by 55 yuan/ton compared to November 2025, a decline of 3.6% [8]. - There are 36 coal mines in Anshun City, with a total designed production capacity of 1488 tons/year. The production status of these mines varies [8].

12月31日，海南矿业盘中上涨2.62%，截至09:35，报12.15元/股，成交1.09亿元，换手率0.46%，总市值 242.79亿元。 责任编辑：小浪快报 海南矿业所属申万行业为：钢铁-冶钢原料-铁矿石。所属概念板块包括：乡村振兴、海南自贸区、天然 气、锂电池、中盘等。 截至9月30日，海南矿业股东户数5.06万，较上期增加8.38%；人均流通股39072股，较上期减少7.74%。 2025年1月-9月，海南矿业实现营业收入33.60亿元，同比增长5.93%；归母净利润3.12亿元，同比减少 42.84%。 分红方面，海南矿业A股上市后累计派现9.93亿元。近三年，累计派现6.57亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，海南矿业十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第四大流 通股东，持股1270.31万股，相比上期增加210.73万股。国泰中证钢铁ETF（515210）位居第五大流通股 东，持股606.24万股，为新进股东。南方中证1000ETF（512100）位居第六大流通股东，持股548.90万 股，相比上期减少15.64万股。华夏中证1000ETF（159845）位居第九大流通股东，持股 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global iron ore supply-demand relationship is statically loose. The supply increase is mainly from non-mainstream mines and those in Guinea. The domestic demand faces downward pressure, while overseas demand will see a slight increase. Port inventories will continue to accumulate, and iron ore prices may face downward pressure, with the price center expected to drop to $85 - $90. In the first and second quarters, prices may be relatively strong due to supply contraction, steel mill复产, winter storage, and construction start expectations. In the third and fourth quarters, prices may face pressure as supply increases and demand remains weak [3][44]. - In terms of spot-futures and inter-month arbitrage, the mismatch between the realization of supply increase expectations and the fluctuation rhythm of hot metal production may bring arbitrage opportunities. For example, in March, attention can be paid to the 5 - 9 inter - period positive spread and spot - futures reverse spread [3][44]. - For inter - variety arbitrage, if the supply increase is realized, iron ore may change from a relatively strong variety in the black commodities to a relatively weak one. Opportunities for the contraction of the ratio of iron ore to coking coal and coke can be considered, as well as the expansion of the rebar - iron ore ratio after the supply increase of iron ore is realized [3][44][45]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Ore Demand Side - Weak at Home, Strong Abroad, with a Slight Steady Increase 1.1 Domestic Demand: Still Under Pressure - In 2025, from January to November, China's fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, with private fixed - asset investment down 5.3%. Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the decline widened by 1.0 percentage points compared with the first 10 months. Real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year. Manufacturing investment increased by 1.9% year - on - year from January to November, but the growth rate slowed down [8][11][12]. - In 2025, China's steel consumption was 808 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.4%. In 2026, the steel demand is expected to be 790 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. Due to the real estate market not bottoming out, the demand for construction steel in 2026 may be weaker than expected, with the national steel demand decreasing by more than 2.0% year - on - year [17]. - In 2026, constrained by the decline in domestic steel demand, steel mills may find it difficult to maintain profits under inventory pressure. According to the Steel Union's statistical caliber, the pig iron output is estimated to be 855 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0%. The iron ore demand is estimated to be 1.5 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 16 million tons [23][26]. 1.2 Foreign Demand: Steady Growth - The Metallurgical Planning and Research Institute predicts that the global steel consumption in 2025 was 1.719 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%, and in 2026, the global steel demand will be 1.736 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%. The World Steel Association expects that the global steel demand in 2026 will rebound moderately by 1.3% to 1.772 billion tons, mainly driven by the strong performance of India, some ASEAN, and Middle East and North African countries [24]. - Considering China's large base of steel demand, it is expected that the global steel demand will increase by 0.8% year - on - year in 2026. The steel demand of countries other than China will increase by 3.5% year - on - year, which translates to an increase of 33.5 million tons in 62% iron ore demand [24][26]. 1.3 Demand Summary - Domestically, the iron ore demand in 2026 is estimated to be 1.5 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 16 million tons. Overseas, the iron ore demand is expected to increase by 33.5 million tons. Overall, the global iron ore demand will increase by about 17.5 million tons in 2026 [26]. Chapter 2: Ore Supply Side - Mainstream Mines are Stable, Focus on Increment from Emerging Mines 2.1 Australian and Brazilian Mainstream Mines: Goal - Oriented, with Steady Growth - In 2025, the world's four major iron ore giants all achieved or exceeded their annual production or shipment targets. In 2026, the total output of the four major mines is expected to reach 1.135 billion tons, an increase of 18 million tons compared with the actual output in 2025. The supply is abundant, and the sales volume in the second half of the year is generally higher than that in the first half, with a total sequential increase of 36.6 million tons [27][30][38]. - Vale and Rio Tinto will be the main contributors to the increase in the second half of the year, with sequential increases of 15 million tons and 13 million tons respectively. BHP's increase is the smallest, only 1.48 million tons, indicating limited production growth space. FMG's sales volume will increase by 7.12 million tons in the second half of the year, showing moderate expansion [30][38][40]. 2.2 Foreign Non - Mainstream Mines and Domestic Mines: Guinea and India Contribute the Main Increment - In 2025, the iron ore shipments from non - Australian and non - Brazilian regions increased significantly. In 2026, the Simandou project in Guinea will contribute the main increment, with an estimated output of 20 million tons from the north and south blocks combined. India's iron ore production and sales are expected to continue to grow. The estimated increment of non - mainstream mines in 2026 is 34 million tons [33]. - In 2025, the output of domestic iron concentrate was estimated to be 243 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8 million tons. In 2026, the supply increment of domestic iron concentrate is expected to be 2 - 3.5 million tons, mainly from the technological transformation and expansion of leading enterprises. However, due to resource, environmental protection, and international ore price constraints, the possibility of significant growth is low [35]. 2.3 Supply Summary - The total output of the four major foreign mines is expected to increase by 18 million tons in 2026. The estimated increment of non - mainstream mines is 34 million tons, and the supply increment of domestic iron concentrate is 2 - 3.5 million tons. Overall, the global iron ore supply will increase in 2026, with an estimated year - on - year increment of 54 - 55.5 million tons [38][40]. Chapter 3: Ore Inventory Side - Steel Mills Control Inventories, Ports Face Pressure 3.1 Port Inventory: There is still an expectation of inventory accumulation - At the end of December, the inventory of 45 ports was 159 million tons, an increase of 10 million tons compared with the beginning of the year, with a growth rate of 6.71%. In 2026, the iron ore supply - demand relationship is statically loose, and the port inventory may continue to accumulate [41]. 3.2 Steel Mills: Winter Storage is Delayed, and the Low - Inventory Model Continues - The current inventory level is at a low point in 2025. Due to steel mill maintenance in December and the late Spring Festival in 2026, the low - inventory model of steel mills remains unchanged. It is expected that steel mills will start to replenish inventory from January to February 2026 and then maintain a relatively low - inventory structure [42]. Chapter 4: Iron Ore Summary and Trading Opportunities in the Second Half of the Year - In terms of supply - demand pattern, in 2026, the global iron ore supply will increase by about 54 - 55.5 million tons, the demand will increase by about 17.5 million tons, and the port inventory may continue to accumulate. Steel mills maintain a cautious approach and adopt a low - inventory management strategy for raw materials [44]. - Overall, the iron ore price may face downward pressure, with the price center expected to drop to $85 - $90. In the first and second quarters, prices may be relatively strong, while in the third and fourth quarters, prices may face pressure. In terms of arbitrage, attention can be paid to spot - futures and inter - month arbitrage in March, as well as inter - variety arbitrage opportunities such as the contraction of the iron ore - coking coal/coke ratio and the expansion of the rebar - iron ore ratio [3][44][45].

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The policy of exempting VAT on the sale of homes held for over 2 years by individuals starting from 2026 will promote the activity of the second - hand housing market and drive the linkage effect between first - hand and second - hand housing [7][8]. - For copper, although price increases may suppress domestic demand, the long - term driving logic remains unchanged, and short - term adjustments provide opportunities for long - term buying [9][10]. - Glass is expected to be strong in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term [11]. - For live pigs, the pressure on supply will be concentrated in January, and there are opportunities to short near - month contracts at high prices [12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Real Estate - **Policy Impact**: Starting from January 1, 2026, individuals selling homes held for over 2 years will be exempt from VAT, while those held for less than 2 years will be taxed at a 3% levy rate. This policy will reduce the cost of housing sales, stimulate housing consumption, and promote the activity of the second - hand housing market [7][8]. Metals Copper - **Supply - side**: The 2026 copper concentrate long - term benchmark price TC is set at $0/ton, and policies may lead to structural changes in the smelting industry [9]. - **Demand - side**: The long - term consumption recovery expectation is strong, especially driven by emerging industries such as computing power centers. However, high prices may suppress domestic demand [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term price adjustments are good entry points for long - term buying [10]. Glass - **Short - term Drivers**: Environmental protection issues in Hubei may lead to production cuts, the 01 contract's position - to - warrant ratio is unfavorable to shorts, and low prices in Hebei have stimulated market stocking [11]. - **Medium - term Outlook**: The market may fluctuate due to high inventory levels and weakening basis [11]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: In late December, there was a structural shortage of pigs, but the overall inventory change was small. The price increase in late December led to re - stocking, and the pressure will be postponed to January [12]. - **Supply and Demand in January**: The group's January sales plan may be slightly reduced, but the need to avoid selling during the Spring Festival will increase supply pressure. Demand in January may not increase significantly, and prices are expected to rise weakly [12]. Other Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately falling [14]. - **Silver**: It is in a high - level adjustment [14]. - **Zinc**: It shows a fluctuating and strengthening trend [14]. - **Lead**: Inventory increases are pressuring prices [14]. - **Tin**: Supply has been disrupted again [14]. - **Aluminum**: It shows a strengthening and fluctuating trend [14]. - **Alumina**: It continues to be at the bottom [14]. - **Cast aluminum alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [14]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities [14]. - **Stainless steel**: The fundamentals limit its elasticity, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks [14]. Chemicals - **PX, PTA**: They are in a high - level fluctuating market. PX supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and PTA supply is recovering while downstream profits are being squeezed [69][72][73]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and it still faces medium - term pressure. Although there are expectations of load reduction, the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change [69][74]. - **Rubber**: It shows a wide - range fluctuation [75]. - **Synthetic rubber**: It is falling from a high level [78]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream inventory is transferred, and the basis is stable [81]. - **PP**: Multiple PDH units are planned to be overhauled in January, and the market is stabilizing and fluctuating [84]. - **Caustic soda**: Attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January. The market is characterized by high production and high inventory [87][89]. - **Paper pulp**: It shows a fluctuating and strengthening trend [93]. - **Methanol**: It is strong in the short - term [102]. - **Urea**: The fluctuation center is moving up [107]. - **Styrene**: It shows short - term fluctuations [111]. - **Soda ash**: The spot market has little change [116]. - **LPG**: The CP in January is at a high level, and the night - session price has made up for the increase [118]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply and demand are tightening, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling and rebound [118]. - **PVC**: It shows a weak and fluctuating trend. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short - term [126][128]. Energy - **Fuel oil**: It is in a narrow - range adjustment and may remain strong in the short - term [129]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: The night - session price has fallen, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels is temporarily stable [129]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is fluctuating at a high level. The key issues for the 2602 contract are the height of freight rates, the inflection point time, and the rate of price decline. For the 2604 contract, shorting at high prices has a relatively high probability of winning [131][141][142][143]. Agricultural Products - **Short - fiber, Bottle - chip**: They are fluctuating at a high level [145]. - **Offset - printing paper**: It is advisable to wait and see [148]. - **Pure benzene**: It shows short - term fluctuations [153]. - **Palm oil**: It has a short - term rebound, but the driving force is weak [156]. - **Soybean oil**: It moves within a range, and attention should be paid to the month - spread opportunities [156]. - **Soybean meal**: It fluctuates, and holiday risks should be avoided [163]. - **Soybean**: It is advisable to be cautious and wait and see before the festival [164]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [167]. - **Sugar**: It is running weakly [171]. - **Cotton**: It maintains a fluctuating and strengthening trend [176]. - **Eggs**: They show short - term fluctuations [181]. - **Live pigs**: Contradictions continue to accumulate, and the price is strong before the festival [184]. - **Peanuts**: Positions are being reduced before the festival [189].