Group 1 - The A-share major indices declined, while the Nonferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) rose by 0.33%, indicating strong market interest with a net subscription of 51 million units [1] - The Nonferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) has seen a total net inflow of 54.3 million yuan over the past two days, with a current fund size of 748 million yuan, making it the largest ETF tracking the same index in the market [1] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on December 9-10 is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut with a probability of 89.4%, which is anticipated to support the price increase of nonferrous metals [1] Group 2 - During the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, tight supply and demand for physical assets are expected to create significant price elasticity, particularly for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [2] - The demand for copper is projected to increase due to power investments by 2026, while storage and alternative demands are expected to drive aluminum demand [2] - The Nonferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) and its linked fund (017140) cover a broad range of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, providing a diversified investment option [2]

Copper - Copper prices experienced fluctuations and weakened overnight, with LME copper inventory increasing by 1,125 tons to 165,675 tons and COMEX copper warehouse receipts rising by 3,208 tons to 401,929 tons [2][8] - The U.S. ADP report indicated an average of 4,750 new jobs added per week in the private sector, ending a four-week job loss streak, signaling positive labor market trends [2][8] - The market is cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, with a consensus forming around a potential rate cut in December, while future rate paths and liquidity measures are under scrutiny [2][8] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 0.91% to $14,750 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 1.18% to 116,360 yuan per ton, with LME inventory decreasing by 816 tons to 252,528 tons [3][9] - The Indonesian government is intensifying regulatory measures in the mining sector, imposing heavy fines on companies operating illegally beyond forest permits [3][9] - Nickel prices in the nickel-iron and stainless steel supply chain are showing upward pressure, but price ceilings remain limited due to marginal inventory reductions [3][9] Aluminum & Alumina - Alumina prices weakened, with AO2601 settling at 2,503 yuan per ton, down 2.15%, while SHFE aluminum also saw a decline to 21,835 yuan per ton, down 0.7% [4][11] - The aluminum market is experiencing seasonal pressures with inventory levels rising, and the supply of alumina remains high, contributing to downward price pressures [4][11] - The aluminum price is following a copper-aluminum ratio correction logic, with increasing concerns about downstream high-price stocking sentiment [4][11] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices weakened, with the main contract settling at 8,340 yuan per ton, down 3.47%, while polysilicon prices showed strength, rising by 3.45% to 55,610 yuan per ton [5][11] - The photovoltaic supply chain is facing high inventory levels and production cuts, with price reduction sentiments not spreading upward [5][11] - The trading exchange has implemented measures to alleviate warehouse pressure, with slow growth in near-month warehouse receipts providing some support [5][11] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures fell by 1.23% to 92,800 yuan per ton, with average prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate remaining at 92,750 yuan per ton [6][12] - Weekly lithium production increased by 74 tons to 21,939 tons, with expectations for a 3% increase in December production [6][12] - Inventory levels are decreasing, but demand is showing signs of weakening, leading to a slight increase in total inventory days to 27 days [6][12]

中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-10 美联储12月利率决议临近，关注预期差 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 有⾊观点：美联储12⽉利率决议临近，关注预期差 交易逻辑：11月欧美制造业PMI普遍回落且美国11月ADP就业数据偏弱，投 资对美联储12月降息预期升温，整体上看，宏观面预期偏正面。原料端延 续偏紧局面，并逐步往冶炼端传导，供应端收缩风险仍然存在。终端略偏 弱，11月初汽车销售增速同比转降，11-12月空调排产降幅扩大，2026年 1-2月排产预计改善，基本金属现实供需略改善，预期偏紧。整体来看， 中短期，宏观面预期正面+供应扰动担忧推高价格，但美联储12月利率决 议公布前资金出现获利回吐，可谨慎关注铜铝锡低吸做多机会；长期，国 内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有 趋紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 铜观点：美联储议息会议将近，铜价⾼位震荡。 氧化铝观点：过剩状态未有明显改善，氧化铝价继续承压。 铝观点：宏观预期反复，铝价震荡回落。 铝合⾦观点：仓单延续回升，盘⾯⾼位震荡。 锌观点：社会库存下降，锌价⾼位震荡。 铅观点：社会库存仍处低位，铅价随有⾊ ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent data has increased the probability of the Federal Reserve further lowering interest rates in December, providing support for precious metal prices [2][3] Precious Metals - Gold price reached $4243.00 per ounce, up $51.95 from November 28, with a growth rate of 1.24% [2] - Silver price was $58.11 per ounce, increasing by $4.20 from November 28, reflecting a growth rate of 7.78% [2] - The core PCE price index for September showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, down from 2.9% previously, aligning with expectations [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has risen to 86.2% according to the CME Fedwatch tool [2] Copper and Aluminum - LME copper closed at $11616 per ton, up $631 from November 28, with a growth rate of 5.74% [4] - SHFE copper closed at 92720 yuan per ton, increasing by 5250 yuan from November 28, with a growth rate of 6.00% [4] - LME copper inventory was 162550 tons, up 3125 tons from November 28, but down 107975 tons year-on-year [4] - Domestic aluminum price was 22150 yuan per ton, up 720 yuan from November 28 [5] - LME aluminum inventory was 528300 tons, down 10750 tons from November 28, and down 158825 tons year-on-year [5] Tin - Domestic refined tin price was 314410 yuan per ton, up 14120 yuan from November 28, with a growth rate of 4.70% [7] - LME tin inventory was 3085 tons, down 75 tons from November 28 [7] - Supply disruptions and expectations of interest rate cuts have led to a significant increase in tin prices [7] Antimony - Domestic antimony ingot price remained stable at 171000 yuan per ton, unchanged from November 28 [8] - Both supply and demand are weak, leading to stable prices [8] Industry Ratings and Investment Strategies - Gold industry maintains a "recommended" investment rating due to the Federal Reserve's easing cycle [9] - Copper industry also holds a "recommended" investment rating due to ongoing tightness in copper supply [10] - Aluminum industry is rated "recommended" as supply remains rigid [11] - Tin industry is rated "recommended" with expectations of tight supply supporting prices [12] - Antimony industry is rated "recommended" following a rebound after a six-month price decline [13] Key Stock Recommendations - Gold industry recommends stocks such as Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, Shandong Gold International, and China National Gold [14] - Copper industry recommends stocks including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, Western Mining, Cangge Mining, and Minmetals Resources [15] - Aluminum industry recommends stocks like Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, and China Hongqiao [16] - Antimony industry recommends Hunan Gold and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals [17] - Tin industry recommends stocks such as Xiyang Co., Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, and Xingye Silver Tin [17]

Group 1 - Bai'ao Saitou-B (02315) rose over 9.4% after announcing its RMB ordinary shares will be listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board on December 10, 2025 [1] - "First Chinese Noodle Restaurant Stock" Yujian Xiaomian (02408) increased by 4.69% as the chairman announced plans to open its first store in Singapore by the end of the month, marking a step towards internationalization [1] - Chinese property stocks collectively declined, with China Overseas Hong Kong Group (00081) down 9.38%, Greentown China (03900) down 4.66%, New World Development (01030) down 3.24%, and Sunac China (01918) down 1.55% [1] Group 2 - Haichang Ocean Park (02255) fell by 9% amid ongoing issues related to the "Xiangyuan System" where several income rights products have not been redeemed [1] - Non-ferrous metal stocks saw significant declines, with Jiangxi Copper (00358) down 6.24%, Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) down 6.48%, China Aluminum (02600) down 5.43%, and Zijin Mining (02899) down 4.24% due to expectations of interest rate adjustments by the Bank of Japan and hawkish comments from European Central Bank officials [2] - Kangnai Optical (02276) dropped over 1.32% as Google announced it is developing two types of AI glasses to compete with Meta's products [2] Group 3 - Zhaoyan New Drug (06127) surged over 7.76% as reports indicated that the price of crab-eating monkeys has exceeded 100,000 yuan [2] - Kingsoft Cloud (03896) rose over 1.78% following a Goldman Sachs report highlighting Xiaomi's exploration of large language models for various applications [2] - Cornerstone Pharmaceuticals-B (02616) increased by over 0.5% after announcing that its drug has been included in the latest National Medical Insurance Drug List, effective January 1, 2026 [3] Group 4 - Marvell Technology (MRVL.US) fell 6.99% as reports indicated Microsoft is negotiating with Broadcom for future custom chip designs, potentially shifting away from Marvell [4] - GCL Global (GCL.US) rose 1.74% after announcing a $3 million strategic investment from ADATA [4] - Kymera Therapeutics (KYMR.US) surged 41.55% to a record high following positive trial results for its drug KT-621 [4] Group 5 - Wave Life Sciences (WVE.US) skyrocketed 147.26% to a yearly high after reporting positive mid-term results for its obesity treatment WVE-007 [5] - Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD.US) rose 4.41% amid speculation that Paramount is considering a higher acquisition offer for the company [5] - Carvana (CVNA.US) increased by 12.06% after being announced for inclusion in the S&P 500 index, effective December 22 [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The overseas market focuses on the Fed's policy trends and the expected appointment of the next Fed Chair. The market anticipates potential rate cuts, but their implementation is uncertain. Asset prices will show structural differentiation. The domestic economy shows marginal improvement, but the foundation for growth is not yet solid. The Politburo meeting sets a positive tone for policies, and attention should be paid to policy implementation. [1][2][3] - In the financial futures market, the stock index is expected to be volatile in the short - term with a neutral - to - bullish outlook. The bond market's yield decline depends on policy and interest rate changes. The RMB exchange rate is supported by domestic policies, and attention should be paid to US economic data and the next Fed Chair's policy orientation. [2][3][4] - In the commodities market, precious metals are expected to be volatile in the short - term and bullish in the long - term. Copper, aluminum, and zinc prices are affected by the Fed's meeting and market fundamentals. Carbonate lithium's short - term impact is limited, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to be in a volatile range. [9][12][15] - In the black market, steel products' prices are supported by raw material costs and policy expectations. Iron ore prices have limited downside space, and coking coal and coke prices are under pressure. Ferroalloys are expected to be weakly volatile. [23][24][26] - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil prices are expected to decline in the medium - term due to supply - demand imbalances. LPG is expected to be strongly volatile. PTA - PX, MEG - bottle chips, etc. are affected by demand decline and supply - side factors. [28][29][30] - In the agricultural products market, the supply - demand situation of pigs in the peak season needs verification. Oilseeds and oils are expected to be volatile, waiting for market guidance. Cotton prices have limited downside space, and sugar prices remain weak. [62][63][66] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Domestic macro - policies will be more proactive. The Politburo meeting emphasizes the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies. China's November foreign trade growth rebounded significantly. Overseas, the US has various political and economic events, and the market focuses on the Fed's policy trends. [1][2][3] RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar weakened slightly. Domestic macro - policies support the RMB exchange rate. The Fed's meeting and the next Fed Chair's policy orientation are key factors. Export enterprises are recommended to lock in forward exchange settlement, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy. [2][3][4] Stock Index - The stock index rose collectively, and the trading volume increased. Multiple positive factors stimulated the stock index, but the market remains cautious. It is recommended to maintain a neutral - to - bullish view and hold long positions. [4] Treasury Bonds - The bond market was affected by the Politburo meeting. The monetary policy remains "moderately loose," and the fiscal policy is "more proactive." It is recommended to hold long - term positions and wait and see in the short - term. [4][5] Container Shipping to Europe - The SCFIS European line index rose slightly. The market is in a long - short game, with factors such as shipping companies' price - raising intentions and the European economic situation affecting the market. The implementation of price - raising plans and the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea are risks. [6][7] Commodities Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - Precious metals are affected by the Fed's rate - cut expectations and spot market delivery issues. They are expected to be volatile in the short - term and bullish in the long - term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the Fed's meeting and delivery volume. [9][10][11] Copper - Copper prices are cautious before the Fed's meeting. The inventory shows different trends, and the industry's operating rate is expected to rise. It is recommended to watch more and act less in the near future and for enterprises to consider buying raw materials. [12][13][14] Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is expected to be strongly volatile, affected by macro - sentiment and copper. Alumina is in an oversupply situation and is expected to be weakly volatile. Cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strongly volatile, and attention should be paid to the price difference with aluminum. [15][16] Zinc - Zinc prices are strongly volatile, affected by macro and fundamental factors. The upside space is limited, and caution is needed when chasing high prices. [16] Tin - Tin prices are in a high - level shock. They are affected by the Fed's meeting and supply - side factors. It is recommended to enter the market on dips. [16][17] Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium's short - term impact is limited. The import of lithium ore from Nigeria has a limited impact on the short - term market. The futures and spot markets show different pricing logics. [18][19] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to be in a volatile range. Polysilicon is expected to be weakly volatile due to weak supply and demand. [19][20][21] Lead - Lead prices are strongly volatile, supported by inventory and demand. The short - term shock range is expected to be around 16900 - 17500. [21][22] Black Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil - Steel products' prices are supported by raw material costs and policy expectations. The supply - demand balance is improving, but the profit of steel mills is marginal. The price range of rebar is expected to be 3000 - 3300, and that of hot - rolled coil is 3200 - 3500. [23] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices have fallen, but the downside space is limited. The supply is increasing, and the demand is seasonally decreasing. Attention should be paid to the Fed's meeting and the domestic economic work meeting. [23][24] Coking Coal & Coke - Coking coal prices have fallen due to weak macro - environment and changes in supply - demand. Coke supply is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the price - cut rhythm of steel mills. [24][25][26] Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese - Ferroalloys are affected by weak demand and high inventory. They are expected to be weakly volatile, and their downside space is limited. [26][27] Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - Crude oil prices have fallen due to the fading of geopolitical premiums. They are expected to be in a volatile and downward trend in the medium - term, affected by factors such as the Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation and supply - demand imbalances. [28][29] LPG - LPG is in a strongly volatile pattern, affected by supply - demand and external factors. The domestic market has relatively strong fundamentals, and it is expected to maintain a volatile pattern. [29][30][31] PTA - PX - PX - PTA is affected by demand decline and market sentiment. The supply - demand structure is relatively good, but the upward drive is limited. It is expected to follow the market sentiment and cost fluctuations. [31][32][33] MEG - Bottle Chips - MEG is affected by terminal demand decline and supply - side factors. The demand negative feedback will gradually spread, and the supply - demand is expected to be in an oversupply situation. It is recommended to short on rallies. [33][34] Methanol - Methanol is affected by delivery games. The 01 contract is expected to reduce positions significantly, and it is recommended to hold short - call options and 1 - 5 reverse spreads. [35] PP - PP is affected by low - profit and weak market sentiment. The supply is expected to be stable or slightly increase, and the demand is weak. It is not recommended to short further. [37][38] PE - PE is in a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The supply pressure is large, and the demand growth space is limited. It is expected to maintain a bottom - shock pattern. [39][40] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, and styrene is supported by the spot market and is in a strong - running pattern. [41][42] Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil has rebounded from the bottom, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a low cracking spread. It is recommended to wait and see for both. [43][44] Asphalt - Asphalt is affected by winter storage policies. The winter storage may be around 2750 - 2830 yuan/ton. It is recommended to use option sellers for two - way strategies or pay attention to the BU03 basis long - matching opportunity. [45][46][47] Rubber - Rubber is in a weakly volatile pattern, affected by supply - demand and macro - environment. It is recommended to wait and see on the short - term single - side and pay attention to the support at the lower edge of the range. [48][49] Agricultural Products Pigs - The supply - demand situation of pigs in the peak season needs verification. The policy may affect the long - term supply, and the short - term is mainly based on fundamentals. The near - month has an oversupply pressure, and the far - month is bullish due to expectations. [62] Oilseeds - The market is concerned about the USDA December report. Imported soybeans' supply and demand are affected by factors such as purchase and arrival. Domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal have different supply - demand situations. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the contract change. [63][64][65] Oils - Oils are in a volatile pattern, waiting for market guidance. Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by factors such as production, export, and supply. [66] Cotton - Cotton prices have limited downside space due to new cotton listing and downstream demand. Attention should be paid to the breakthrough of the hedging pressure level at around 13800. [66][67] Sugar - Sugar prices remain weak due to sufficient supply and weak demand. [67][68] Eggs - Egg prices have rebounded in the short - term. The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still in excess, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to participate in the long - position game with a light position. [69][70] Apples - Apple futures show a pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term. The inventory is decreasing, and the market is still in a relatively strong pattern. [70][71] Jujubes - Jujubes are in a low - level shock pattern. The new - season jujube production is being determined, and the price is expected to have limited downside space. [71][72][73]

Group 1: Precious Metals - The term structure of SHFE silver futures is close to flat, contrasting with the previous CONTANGO, mainly due to the tight spot market. The silver TD deferred fee has been consistently showing a short - to - long payment situation. After January, the spot tightness may ease, and the CONTANGO structure is expected to return [3] Group 2: Copper - This week, focus on the Fed's interest rate decision and the trend of the US CPI year - on - year data. Given that last week's macro and micro factors jointly boosted copper prices, this week, even if the macro expectations are realized, the "high - price but low - trading" situation at the micro - level needs to be digested, so beware of price adjustments at high levels [14] - The latest prices and daily changes of copper futures and spot are as follows: the latest price of Shanghai copper main contract is 92,970 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan or 0.2%; the latest price of LME copper 3M is 11,665 dollars/ton, up 231 dollars or 2.02%. Among spot prices, the latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 92,300 yuan/ton, up 715 yuan or 0.78% [15][20] Group 3: Aluminum and Alumina - Short - term Shanghai aluminum is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, mainly driven by improved macro sentiment and the strong performance of copper. However, pay attention to the interest rate cut expectations and be vigilant against potential price corrections before the interest rate cut. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, with high domestic production capacity, an open import window, and a large number of incoming import alumina, which exacerbates the imbalance between supply and demand [34] - The latest price of Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,275 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan or 0.31%; the latest price of alumina main contract is 2,585 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.17% [36] Group 4: Zinc - The ADP data indicates that an interest rate cut in December is certain. The next Fed Chairman may be pre - determined by Trump, raising doubts about the Fed's independence and potentially leading to more aggressive interest rate cuts. On the fundamental side, TC has dropped significantly, increasing the willingness of smelters to cut or stop production, resulting in supply contraction. The demand side is entering the off - season. Domestic inventory reduction due to exports and production cuts supports Shanghai zinc, while LME inventory is gradually increasing. Currently, with improving macro conditions but a stalemate in fundamentals, Shanghai zinc is undervalued among non - ferrous metals and is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger under the impetus of funds [59] - The latest price of Shanghai zinc main contract is 23,285 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.09%; the latest price of LME zinc closing price is 3,098 dollars/ton, up 7.5 dollars or 0.24% [60] Group 5: Nickel - Nickel ore is expected to be stable and slightly stronger as major mining areas in the Philippines and Indonesia have entered the rainy season, affecting production and shipping. The new energy sector has seen a certain decline following nickel prices, with most precursor factories having completed procurement, resulting in reduced downstream purchasing willingness. The decline of nickel iron has slowed, with some iron factories reducing production due to limited profits, and strong willingness of upstream suppliers to hold prices. The fundamentals of stainless steel have limited improvement. Currently, off - season demand is weak, so pay attention to Indonesian policies and the December interest rate cut expectations [75] - The latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 118,030 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan or 0%; the latest price of LME nickel 3M is 14,970 dollars/ton, up 85 dollars or - 0.02% [76] Group 6: Tin - The ADP data indicates a December interest rate cut, and Trump's frequent intervention in the next Fed Chairman raises doubts about the Fed's independence, potentially leading to more aggressive interest rate cuts. Pay attention to the Thursday interest rate meeting. On the fundamental side, in the short term, it is difficult to solve the raw material problem on the supply side, and there are frequent supply - side disturbances, so Shanghai tin will maintain a high - level volatile trend. The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo may ease due to potential peace talks [88] - The latest price of Shanghai tin main contract is 319,200 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan or 0.54%; the latest price of LME tin 3M is 40,175 dollars/ton, down 365 dollars or - 0.9% [89] Group 7: Lithium Carbonate - From the fundamental perspective, the arrival volume of lithium ore in December is expected to increase month - on - month, potentially alleviating the tight supply situation at the ore end. Lithium salt factories generally maintain a high operating rate, and the resumption progress of Jiaxiaowo Ningde needs to be closely monitored. The demand side shows the characteristic of "off - season not being off - season", with high pre - production schedules for power and energy storage terminals in December, driving strong purchasing demand from downstream material factories. The pattern of strong supply and demand continues, providing a bottom - level support for prices. Technically, the current price faces short - term pressure at the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, and there is a strong motivation for long - position holders to take profits at this level. Be vigilant against potential profit - taking by long - position holders due to increased differences among funds in the context of active market trading recently. In general, in the short term, be cautious about the risk of chasing high prices at the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, and the price may experience a phased correction [103] - The latest price of lithium carbonate futures main contract is 94,840 yuan/ton, up 2,680 yuan from the previous day but down 980 yuan from last week [104] Group 8: Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, with both upstream and downstream having expectations of production cuts. The fundamentals lack substantial improvement momentum. Considering potential supply - side disturbances from winter environmental protection in production areas, the short - term fundamentals of the industry are unlikely to improve. Technically, the futures price has been moving within the Bollinger Bands, and in the short term, it will closely follow the price fluctuations of related products such as polysilicon and coking coal, and is likely to maintain a volatile consolidation trend. In the long - term, the downside space of the price is limited [117] - The latest price of industrial silicon main contract is 8,675 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan or - 1.48% [120]

｜2025年12月8日 星期一｜ 信达证券研报指出，9月以来市场缩量的内在原因是消化高换手率和部分板块交易拥挤，目前这两个原 因均有所缓和。本轮缩量震荡时间偏长，主要原因或在于当前市场资金面中，稳定的买入力量更多在于 中长期资金和产业资本，局部板块快速轮动的行情较难驱动居民资金大幅流入。另外也有年底存量机构 行为趋于稳健以及预期扰动下部分止盈资金离场的影响。但该机构认为当前时点可以保持乐观。一方 面，牛市中低成交量不是利空信号，事后来看，成交量低点大多情况下是牛市中较好的买入时点。 2005-2007年和2019-2021年，牛市中的调整或震荡期，成交量往往会快速萎缩。事后来看，成交量低点 通常也是市场阶段性低点。另一方面，历史上跨年行情启动之前，市场大多会先有一定的调整，本质上 是交易性资金为博弈跨年行情腾挪安全边际。2025年12月或成为布局跨年行情的窗口期。 NO.3 华西证券：跨年行情有望徐徐展开 华西证券认为，岁末年初，A股多路增量资金入市可以期待：一方面，海外美联储降息概率较大，人民 币汇率偏强运行有利于外资增配中国资产；另一方面，监管层下调保险资金股票投资风险因子和年初保 险资金"开门红"预期下 ...

Group 1 - CITIC Securities reports that a turning point in inventory has been observed since mid-November, with expectations for LME copper prices to accelerate towards $12,000 per ton by the end of the year due to interest rate cuts and domestic production reductions [1] - Looking ahead to next year, the dual narrative of "U.S. copper hoarding" and "domestic production cuts" is expected to resonate, potentially widening the supply gap by 60%, with $12,000 becoming a new starting point for copper prices [1] - A comprehensive recommendation for allocation in the copper sector has been made [1] Group 2 - Cinda Securities indicates that the foundation for a bull market remains solid, with the current market's low trading volume not being a negative signal, as historical patterns show that low volume often coincides with good buying opportunities during bull markets [2] - The report suggests that the end of the year may serve as a window for positioning ahead of a cross-year market rally, as adjustments typically occur before such rallies [2] - Huaxi Securities anticipates an influx of new capital into the A-share market at the year's end, driven by factors such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and favorable currency conditions for foreign investment in Chinese assets [3] - The report highlights sectors to focus on, including high-growth areas supported by industrial policy, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and AI applications, as well as non-ferrous metals benefiting from improved overseas liquidity [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the non-ferrous metals industry, particularly copper, aluminum, and the construction materials sector, as well as the gold market and its outlook [1][2][4][5][6][9]. Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper Market**: Short-term price surge due to U.S. tariff expectations leading to an expanded price gap between LME and COMEX. The U.S. market pricing is deviating from fundamentals. By 2026, the U.S. siphoning effect may create tight inventory risks in non-U.S. regions, but a return to fundamental pricing could occur if LME experiences warehouse congestion or tariff expectations decrease, leading to potential oversupply risks [1][5]. - **Aluminum Market**: Prices are expected to follow copper trends, with global supply affected by electricity shortages. Domestic production has peaked, and high overseas energy costs, along with investment cycle constraints, will likely lead to a decline in supply growth from 2025 to 2030. A bull market is needed to strengthen price incentives, with occasional events also pushing prices up [1][5]. Gold Market - The outlook for the gold market remains optimistic, driven by central bank purchases, ETF investments, and potential gold tokenization. Gold prices are expected to rise significantly by 2026, with current stock valuations between 10 to 13 times earnings being attractive [1][4]. Construction Materials - The construction materials sector is experiencing supply contraction under profit pressure. Recommendations include focusing on consumer building materials and leading fiberglass companies. Differentiation in product offerings is allowing some companies to achieve excess profits, with leading float glass companies expected to balance supply through self-initiated repairs, aiding profit recovery [1][6][7][8]. Fiberglass Industry - Demand for fiberglass is projected to grow in the high single digits, with approximately 400,000 tons of new domestic supply expected next year, while about 100,000 tons of overseas capacity will exit annually. High-end products remain scarce, and leading companies like China National Building Material and China Jushi are recommended [3][9]. Cement Industry - The cement industry is controlling supply through production limits and peak-shifting measures. By the end of 2025, a net reduction of over 50 million tons of capacity is anticipated, with a potential overall capacity reduction of over 10% in 2026 if monitoring and enforcement measures are effective. The industry is expected to see a moderate recovery in profit margins [11]. Phosphate and Potash Markets - Phosphate demand is significantly driven by the growth in energy storage, with total demand for power and storage batteries expected to reach 450 to 500 GWh by 2026, translating to a demand for 4.3 to 5 million tons of phosphate rock. The potash market is also expected to see stable growth, with limited new supply and high import dependence from China, leading to favorable price expectations [22][24]. Chemical Industry - The chemical industry is currently at a cyclical low but is expected to enter an upward phase starting late 2025. Industry self-discipline measures are enhancing price elasticity, with recent price increases observed in various chemical products [25][26][27]. Investment Opportunities - Recommended investment opportunities include potassium and phosphorus fertilizers, which are supported by strong fundamentals and global agricultural and renewable energy growth. Related fine chemicals like refined phosphoric acid and yellow phosphorus also show significant investment potential due to their wide applications [28].