Core Viewpoint - China National Chemical Corporation (中海石油化学) reported a slight increase in sales revenue for 2025, but a significant decrease in net profit, leading to a decline in stock price [1] Financial Performance - Sales revenue for 2025 was approximately 12.034 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was about 974 million yuan, a decrease of 9.04% year-on-year [1] - Earnings per share were reported at 0.21 yuan, with a proposed year-end dividend of 0.112 yuan per share [1] Market Factors - The revenue growth was primarily attributed to fluctuations in the fertilizer and chemical product markets, as well as increased production efficiency from production facilities [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that BASF, the world's largest chemical giant, has announced a price increase of 30% or more for all household care, industrial, and institutional cleaning products in Europe starting from March 18, primarily due to significant fluctuations in key raw material prices, rising domestic and cross-continental logistics costs, and soaring packaging and energy costs [1] - BASF will also increase its formic acid sales price in Europe by €250 per ton and the price of neopentyl glycol by €350 per ton, effective immediately or as allowed by existing contracts [1] Group 2 - In the A-share market, several chemical stocks have seen price increases, with Xinghua Co. hitting the daily limit, Guofa Co. rising over 3%, and others like Xin'ao Co., Guanghui Energy, Donghua Energy, Dawi Technology, and Shengli Co. increasing by over 2% [1] - The market capitalization and year-to-date performance of notable companies include: - Xinghua Co. with a market cap of ¥6.739 billion and a year-to-date increase of 48.73% [2] - Guofa Co. with a market cap of ¥3.313 billion and a year-to-date increase of 3.27% [2] - Xin'ao Co. with a market cap of ¥70.2 billion and a year-to-date increase of 9.20% [2] - Guanghui Energy with a market cap of ¥44.7 billion and a year-to-date increase of 42.07% [2] - Donghua Energy with a market cap of ¥14.7 billion and a year-to-date increase of 15.06% [2] - Dawi Technology with a market cap of ¥17.3 billion and a year-to-date increase of 62.43% [2] - Shengli Co. with a market cap of ¥4.471 billion and a year-to-date increase of 1.39% [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market has seen a rise in certain chemical stocks, with Xinghua Co. hitting the daily limit, Guofa Co. increasing by over 3%, and several others like Xin'ao Co., Guanghui Energy, Donghua Energy, Dawi Technology, and Shengli Co. rising by over 2% [1] - BASF, the world's largest chemical giant, announced a price increase of 30% or more for all household care, industrial, and institutional cleaning and industrial formulation products in Europe starting March 18. This decision is in response to significant fluctuations in key raw material prices and supply, rising domestic and cross-continental logistics costs, and soaring packaging and energy costs [1] - BASF also stated that it would increase its formic acid sales price in Europe by €250 per ton and the price of neopentyl glycol by €350 per ton, effective immediately or as allowed by existing contracts [1] Group 2 - Xinghua Co. has a market capitalization of 6.739 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 48.73% [2] - Guofa Co. has a market capitalization of 3.313 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 3.27% [2] - Xin'ao Co. has a market capitalization of 70.2 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 9.20% [2] - Guanghui Energy has a market capitalization of 44.7 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 42.07% [2] - Donghua Energy has a market capitalization of 1.47 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 15.06% [2] - Dawi Technology has a market capitalization of 17.3 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 62.43% [2] - Shengli Co. has a market capitalization of 4.471 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 1.39% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the threat from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to attack multiple energy facilities in the Middle East led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices and inflation pressure; the US PPI data exceeded expectations, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting had a hawkish tone, causing the US dollar index and US Treasury yields to rise and global risk appetite to cool significantly. Domestically, China's economy rebounded better than expected from January to February, with exports far exceeding expectations and inflation continuing to recover. The government's work report set the main development targets and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with overall targets and policy intensity lower than in 2025. In the short term, the stock index will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to changes in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the implementation of the Two Sessions policies, and market sentiment [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index and government bonds will fluctuate in the short term, with a cautious wait - and - see attitude; among commodity sectors, black metals will have a short - term oscillating rebound, non - ferrous metals will oscillate in the short term, energy and chemical products will be oscillating and strong in the short term, and precious metals will oscillate in the short term, all requiring a cautious approach [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas, the threat to energy facilities and the hawkish Fed led to a rise in inflation and a decline in risk appetite. Domestically, the economy and inflation were better than expected, but policy targets and intensity were lower than in 2025. The stock index will oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical and policy changes. Assets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities will have different short - term trends [2]. 3.2 Stock Index - Driven by sectors like communication services, AI, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market rose slightly. The economy and inflation were better than expected from January to February, but due to geopolitical shocks and the hawkish Fed, the stock index will oscillate in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [3]. 3.3 Precious Metals - On Wednesday night, the precious metals market fell sharply. Due to the threat to energy facilities, rising inflation expectations, and the hawkish Fed, the US dollar index strengthened, and precious metal prices weakened. They will oscillate in the short term, and a cautious wait - and - see attitude is recommended [4]. 3.4 Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot market rebounded slightly, and the futures price rose and then fell. The decline in crude oil prices led to a slowdown in the rise of steel prices. Demand was weak but improving, and supply would remain high. It is recommended to treat it with an oscillating mindset and beware of the risk of a fall after a rise [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures and spot prices fell slightly. The daily average pig iron output decreased, but there was an expectation of resumption of production after the Two Sessions. The global iron ore arrival volume decreased, and the shipping volume increased. The short - term upward space of iron ore prices may be limited, and attention should be paid to the risk of a fall after a rise [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices rebounded slightly, and the futures prices fell. The manganese ore spot was firm. The supply of silicon manganese had a slight change in production capacity utilization, and the downstream demand was recovering. The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are recommended to be treated with an oscillating mindset [7]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Since 2026, copper prices have been oscillating at a high level. The core contradiction lies in the mine end, but the probability of extreme shortage is low. Refined copper production has a high growth rate, and downstream demand is suppressed, with inventories accumulating [8]. - **Aluminum**: The non - ferrous sector was weak. Domestic aluminum supply was high, and inventories were accumulating. Overseas supply was tight due to the Middle East situation, resulting in a large price difference between domestic and overseas [8]. - **Zinc**: The zinc ore processing fee in some regions rebounded, and the import ore TC decreased. Domestic smelting production was at a relatively high level, and overseas production will recover in 2026. Demand was not optimistic, and inventories were accumulating [9]. - **Lead**: The production of primary and secondary lead increased seasonally, and demand entered the off - season. LME and domestic lead inventories were at high levels [10]. - **Nickel**: The cost supported the MHP price, and the RKAB quota in Indonesia decreased. Nickel prices had strong support below but limited upward momentum. Inventories at home and abroad were at high levels [11]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin increased as the resumption of production in Myanmar accelerated and smelting enterprises resumed work. Demand was differentiated, and inventories increased [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price of lithium carbonate fell. The price of lithium ore decreased, and the social inventory was de - stocked. It is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is not advisable to chase the rise [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price of industrial silicon fell. It was priced close to the cost, and attention should be paid to the cost support [14]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price of polysilicon fell. The inventory was at a high level, and the price was expected to be weakly oscillating [14]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Iranian oil and gas facilities were attacked, causing the oil price to rise significantly. The short - term oil price will remain strong and volatile [15]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price followed the rise in oil price. The inventory was low, and the supply was low. The short - term absolute price will fluctuate with the oil price [15]. - **PX**: The PX price was high due to the shortage of naphtha. Although there were some factors suppressing the upward trend, the oil price was the main logic [16]. - **PTA**: The PTA price followed the rise in PX, and the inventory pressure decreased. However, the profit of the middle and lower reaches was suppressed, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol rose, but the inventory was high. If exports are used for de - stocking, the price may rise [17]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price followed the energy and chemical sector to be strongly oscillating. The downstream profit was suppressed, and the inventory increased [17]. - **Methanol**: The inland methanol market was strong, and the port market had a weakening basis. The supply was worried due to the conflict, and the inventory decreased. The overall pattern was strong [18]. - **PP**: The PP price was sorted out in a small range. The supply decreased, and the price was supported. Attention should be paid to the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz [18]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE was adjusted. The downstream demand was increasing, but the profit was compressed. The supply was tight, and the price was firm [19]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market was weakly adjusted. The daily output was high, and the price was expected to return to an oscillating range [19][20]. 3.7 Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The overnight soybean price rose. The rise in oil price and the expected biofuel policy supported the price. Attention should be paid to the estimated planting area at the end of the month [21]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The import of soybeans decreased seasonally, and the soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased, supporting the soybean meal basis. The supply of rapeseed was expected to be loose, suppressing the market sentiment [21]. - **Oils and Fats**: The international oil price and biofuel policy supported the performance of oils and fats. The palm oil price was supported by increased exports and decreased production. The soybean oil basis was stable, and the rapeseed oil basis was slightly down [22]. - **Corn**: The corn price oscillated, and the bullish sentiment slowed down. The increase in imported barley and the release of grain sources limited the upward risk preference [22]. - **Pigs**: The pig industry was in a period of capacity adjustment. The demand was improving marginally but still in the off - season. The price had a sign of stopping falling, and the futures price was expected to oscillate weakly in a range [23].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel and ore industry is "Oscillating, Slightly Bullish" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel and ore market is expected to oscillate. For specific varieties, the support and pressure levels are as follows: the support level for rebar is 3000, and the pressure level is 3200; for hot - rolled coils, the support level is 3180, and the pressure level is 3350; for iron ore, the support level is 750, and the pressure level is 840 [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - On Wednesday, rebar and hot - rolled coils rose first and then fell. Both steel and ore closed down at night [1] 3.2 Important News - The National Development and Reform Commission has launched a new batch of 13 landmark major foreign - funded projects with a planned investment of $13.4 billion, focusing on manufacturing and increasing support for the service industry [1] - In January - February 2026, China's cumulative steel exports were 15.591 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%; cumulative steel imports were 0.827 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.7%; cumulative imports of iron ore and its concentrates were 210.023 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.0%; cumulative imports of coal and lignite were 77.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5% [1] - In February 2026, China's steel plate exports were 4.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6%; cumulative exports from January - February were 9.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.5%. In February, China's steel bar exports were 1.19 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.7%; cumulative exports from January - February were 2.32 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9% [1] - Iran's largest natural gas field and some petrochemical facilities were attacked by the US and Israel, and Iran vowed to retaliate by attacking oil facilities in three Middle - Eastern countries. Qatar reported that an Iranian missile hit a natural gas hub, causing serious damage, and Iran also attacked a US - exclusive area of a refinery in Riyadh, causing a fire [1] - The Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the federal funds rate target range between 3.5% and 3.75%, holding steady for the second consecutive time, in line with market expectations [1] 3.3 Market Logic - On the 18th, the market prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port remained stable. For example, 60.8% PB powder was 794 (unchanged), Super Special powder was 675 (unchanged), 61.6% PB lump was 905 (unchanged), Carajas powder was 953 (unchanged), and SPGF mixed powder was 764 (unchanged) [1] - On the 17th, Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3260, up 10; Shanghai Angang/Benxi hot - rolled coils were 3310, up 20 [1] - On the 18th, the spot market for port coke remained stable. The trading atmosphere in the domestic spot market was average. The volume of trade shipments at the two ports was stable compared to the previous working day, and the total inventory at the two ports was stable compared to the previous working day. Rizhao Port had 43 (unchanged), Qingdao Port had 69 (unchanged), and the total inventory was 112, a decrease of 2.3 compared to last week [1] 3.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Gradually reduce long positions in steel and ore [1] - Arbitrage trading: Continue to hold the strategy of going long on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. As of the night session on Wednesday, the spread was 173. It is recommended to raise the stop - loss level to a spread of 130 and set the take - profit level at around 200 [2] - For the ratio of rebar to iron ore, which was 3.87, it is recommended to opportunistically go long on the ratio (go long on rebar and short on iron ore), with the target of raising the ratio above 4. At the same time, pay attention to the possible impact of the later main contract roll - over [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a collective decline in the three major indices, with the CSI sub-industry chemical theme index dropping by 0.89%. Notable stocks included Baofeng Energy rising over 5%, Hualu Hengsheng increasing nearly 3%, and Satellite Chemical up over 2% [1] - The Tianhong Chemical ETF (159133) recorded an initial trading volume exceeding 6 million yuan, with a premium rate of 0.09%. Over the past five trading days, this ETF has seen a net inflow of over 72 million yuan, ranking first among similar products [1] - The Tianhong Chemical ETF tracks the CSI sub-industry chemical theme index, which comprehensively covers various segments of the chemical industry, including leading companies in phosphate chemicals, fluorine chemicals, phosphate fertilizers, and potassium fertilizers [1] Group 2 - Guosheng Securities pointed out that international conflicts are impacting the supply of petrochemical-related raw materials and products. Domestic capital expenditure in the industry is declining, compounded by environmental production limits and the shutdown of some chemical enterprises due to cost disadvantages, particularly in basic chemical raw materials like ethylene and propylene [2] - The exit of outdated production capacity in the chemical industry is accelerating, leading to an improved competitive landscape. Under the "anti-involution" policy direction, leading enterprises are actively reducing load rates to support prices, driven by various factors that are expected to sustain price increases for chemical products and enhance the economic viability of chemical projects [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment rating information provided in the reports Group 2: Core Views Polyolefins - The current market is in a fierce game between strong cost support, supply contraction expectations, and weak actual demand. It is expected that prices will maintain a wide - range high - level shock. If the geopolitical tension continues, under the combination of "domestic production cuts, reduced imports, and increased exports", and the conflict tends to be long - term, the domestic start - up rate may decline further after April, and the 05 contract is expected to have a significant upward market [1]. Rubber - The Sino - US conflict remains stalemate, and the crude oil price fluctuates at a high level. In the short term, the crude oil trend still dominates the market risk sentiment. The natural rubber fundamentals have both long and short factors, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range of 16,000 - 17,500, with strong cost support at the lower end. Be vigilant about the market trading the reduction of Middle - East tire demand again at the upper end of the price range [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The fundamental pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues. In the short term, multiple production lines are planned for maintenance. In the medium - to - long term, there is still some room below the current price. It is expected that the futures will be in a shock - adjustment pattern, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, and pay attention to inventory and production line changes. - Glass: The current supply - side daily melting volume is already low, and the real - estate data shows that the real - estate is still in the adjustment period, and the demand - side recovery is slow. The overall fundamentals have weak supply and demand. It is advisable to view it with a shock outlook. The strategy is to wait and see, with a reference range of 1000 - 1150. Pay attention to inventory and downstream demand [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: Although the fundamentals have marginally improved, the overall pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged. Recently, the Middle - East situation has slightly eased, and after the emotional tide recedes, the futures price has declined. - PVC: In the short term, the supply - demand situation has slightly changed. Affected by the expected increase in ethylene supply tension, the production load of ethylene - based production enterprises may be reduced in the long term, while the calcium - carbide - based production load has slightly increased. The cost increase drives the bottom of the PVC price to rise. The domestic demand is normal, and foreign trade exports are waiting for new quotes due to unstable freight and other risks [4]. Urea - The current urea fundamentals have not improved significantly. In the short term, urea prices are mainly subject to fluctuations driven by energy costs. Recently, the tense situation of high oil prices has slightly eased. Under the background of domestic price - stabilizing policies, urea may experience a shock - decline in the short term [5]. Ester Industry Chain - PX: In the short term, the supply and demand of PX are both weak, and the overall supply - demand is marginally weakening. The current benchmark price still dominates the chemical trend. Pay attention to the downstream negative feedback. It is expected that the absolute price of PX will fluctuate with the oil price in the short term. - PTA: In the short term, PTA's own driving force is limited, and the absolute price fluctuates with the cost side. - Ethylene glycol: In March, the domestic supply of ethylene glycol has significantly declined, and the arrival volume of foreign ships will be at a low level. The polyester load is seasonally rising, and the de - stocking amplitude is expected to expand in March - April. In the short term, the ethylene glycol price still has the momentum to rise. - Short - fiber: In the short term, the short - fiber's own driving force is limited, and it mainly follows the raw material fluctuations. - Bottle chips: The supply of domestic bottle chips is gradually increasing in March. Under the influence of macro and crude oil stimulation and the peak procurement season of PET, the downstream procurement of bottle chips is expected to follow up, and the supply - demand of bottle chips is expected to be tight [6]. Crude Oil - In the short term, the oil price maintains a pattern of "policy suppression + geopolitical support", and Brent maintains a range - bound fluctuation. If the Strait of Hormuz blockade lasts for more than a month, the supply will change from inventory depletion to a substantial shortage, and the oil price may still have strong upward momentum [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The supply of pure benzene is expected to decline, and the supply - demand is expected to improve. In the short term, pure benzene may follow the oil - price fluctuations. - Styrene: In March, the supply of styrene remains high, and the supply - demand is expected to slightly de - stock. In the short term, the absolute price of styrene follows the oil - price fluctuations [10]. Methanol - At present, the price is dominated by supply - interruption expectations and risk sentiment. The subsequent trend highly depends on the actual progress of the geopolitical conflict [11]. LPG - No overall core view provided for LPG in the report Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Prices**: Futures prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 all declined on March 18 compared with the previous day, with declines ranging from 0.28% to 0.77%. Spot prices of East - China PP and North - China LLDPE also decreased, with declines of 0.58% and 0.61% respectively [1]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 1.23% to 56.83 million tons, and social inventory decreased by 6.58% to 61.93 million tons. PP enterprise inventory decreased by 9.34% to 59.62 million tons, and trader inventory decreased by 6.04% to 19.36 million tons [1]. - **开工率**: PE device start - up rate decreased by 5.20% to 82.39%, and downstream weighted start - up rate increased by 18.20% to 33.83%. PP device start - up rate decreased by 5.95% to 69.98%, and downstream weighted start - up rate of PP powder increased by 14.53% to 31.35 [1]. Rubber - **Prices**: Spot prices of Yunnan Guofu hand - made rubber and Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 2.99% and 1.92% respectively on March 18 compared with the previous day. The basis of whole - milk rubber decreased by 200.00% [2]. - **Production and Inventory**: In January, Thailand's rubber production increased by 11.09% to 549,000 tons, Indonesia's production decreased by 14.90% to 161,100 tons, and India's production decreased by 3.48% to 108,100 tons. The bonded - area inventory decreased by 0.42% to 677,569 tons, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 2.20% to 49,291 tons [2]. - **开工率**: The start - up rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased by 3.68% and 4.32% respectively to 77.71% and 70.22% [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices**: Glass prices in North - China, East - China, and Central - China remained unchanged on March 18. Soda ash prices in North - China, East - China, Central - China, and Northwest - China also remained unchanged [3]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Soda ash start - up rate increased by 0.27% to 87.00%, and weekly output increased slightly. Float - glass daily melting volume decreased by 1.08% to 146,900 tons, and photovoltaic glass daily melting volume increased by 1.82% to 89,360 tons. Glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 4.76% to 75,849,000 weight - cases, and soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 1.6% to 193,170 tons [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: On March 18, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged, while the price of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda increased by 0.8%. The price of East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 0.9%, and the price of East - China ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The start - up rate of the caustic - soda industry decreased by 1.3% to 85.3%, and the total start - up rate of PVC increased by 0.3% to 81.4%. The start - up rates of downstream industries such as printing and dyeing increased to varying degrees [4]. - **Inventory**: Caustic - soda factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 3.6% to 53,000 tons, and PVC upstream factory - warehouse inventory and total social inventory both decreased by 17.7% to 37,700 tons [4]. Urea - **Prices**: On March 18, the futures price of urea decreased, and the spot price continued to decline weakly. The prices of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and other regions decreased slightly [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of domestic urea decreased by 1.36% to 218,200 tons, and the start - up rate of urea production enterprises decreased by 1.36% to 92.68%. The agricultural demand for return - green fertilizer has ended, and the industrial demand is flat [5]. - **Inventory**: Domestic urea factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 15.53% to 808,900 tons, and port inventory remained unchanged at 189,000 tons [5]. Ester Industry Chain - **Prices**: On March 18, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased, while the prices of downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY decreased to varying degrees. The prices of PX, PTA, and MEG also showed different trends [6]. - **开工率**: The start - up rates of Asian PX, Chinese PX, PTA, and MEG all decreased to varying degrees, while the start - up rates of polyester comprehensive, direct - spinning filament, and polyester bottle chips increased [6]. Crude Oil - **Prices**: On March 18, Brent crude oil increased by 3.83% to $107.38 per barrel, WTI crude oil increased by 0.11% to $96.32 per barrel, and SC crude oil increased by 0.90% to 751.20 yuan per barrel [8]. - **价差**: The spreads between Brent M1 - M3, SC M1 - M3, and Brent - WTI all changed compared with the previous day [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: On March 18, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased, while the prices of CFR China pure benzene, pure - benzene East - China spot, and benzene - ethylene East - China spot decreased [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 4.6% to 288,000 tons, and the inventory of benzene - ethylene in Jiangsu ports increased by 3.8% to 162,500 tons [10]. - **开工率**: The start - up rates of Asian pure benzene, domestic pure benzene, and benzene - ethylene all decreased to varying degrees [10]. Methanol - **Prices**: On March 18, the closing price of MA2605 increased by 2.28% to 2912 yuan per ton, and the closing price of MA2609 increased by 1.19% to 2719 yuan per ton [11]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 7.32% to 484,900 tons, and port inventory decreased by 3.89% to 1,262,000 tons [11]. - **开工率**: The start - up rate of domestic methanol enterprises increased slightly by 0.07% to 76.27%, and the start - up rate of overseas enterprises decreased by 9.58% to 47.2% [11]. LPG - **Prices**: On March 18, the prices of PG2604 and PG2605 decreased by 1.42% and 1.15% respectively. The price of South - China spot (civil gas) remained unchanged, and the price of deliverable spot increased by 1.81% [12]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery storage - capacity ratio increased by 10.50% to 24.9%, and port inventory decreased by 1.52% to 227,000 tons [12]. - **开工率**: The start - up rate of upstream main - refineries decreased by 1.76% to 81.35%, and the start - up rate of downstream PDH decreased by 2.62% to 63.2% [12].

Group 1: Domestic News - The National Development and Reform Commission has launched a new batch of 13 major foreign investment projects with a planned investment of $13.4 billion, focusing on manufacturing sectors such as electronics, chemicals, automotive, and electrical machinery [2] - Shanghai has recognized 30 new regional headquarters of multinational companies and 15 foreign research and development centers, primarily in key industries like biomedicine, integrated circuits, high-end equipment, automotive, and fashion consumer goods [3] - Chongqing has established the first mandatory insurance mechanism for low-altitude economy, providing risk coverage of 42.6 million yuan for 194 drones operated by Aerospace Technology Group [4] Group 2: Automotive Industry - The China Passenger Car Association reported that from March 1 to 15, retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 561,000 units, a year-on-year decline of 21%, while retail sales of new energy vehicles during the same period were 285,000 units, down 28% year-on-year [5] - Chery Automobile announced a total revenue of 300.29 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11.3% and a net profit of 19.51 billion yuan, reflecting a net profit margin increase from 5.3% to 6.5% [12] - Geely Automobile reported a total revenue of 345.2 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25%, with a core net profit of 14.41 billion yuan, marking a 36% growth [13] - Zotye Automobile's wholly-owned subsidiary, Zhejiang Shenkang Automotive Body Mould Co., has resumed production, although the company faces significant financial pressure and uncertainty regarding the full recovery of its vehicle business [11] Group 3: Technology and Innovation - Xiaomi's ultra-strong steel, with a strength of 2200 MPa, has won the "Science and Technology Innovation Achievement First Prize" from the China Association for the Promotion of Industry-Academia-Research Cooperation, and is now in mass production for new models [14] - GAC Toyota has initiated its first large-scale OTA upgrade for the Platinum 3X model, available for all owners free of charge [15] - The new automotive brand AISTALAND, created by Huawei and GAC, was officially announced, emphasizing the integration of AI in automotive travel [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, with the prices of finished steel products continuing to fluctuate and strengthen. However, the real estate data from January to February was still weak, indicating limited support from the real estate sector for steel demand in the short term. The steel market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the release rhythm of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material prices on the cost side [2]. - The price of iron ore fluctuates widely due to negotiation issues and overseas geopolitical conflicts. Attention should be paid to the progress of subsequent negotiations and the development of the geopolitical situation [5]. - For manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon, in the context of the long - lasting US - Iran conflict, the overall sentiment in the commodity market is bullish. Future market trends are mainly affected by the overall market sentiment, cost - push factors of manganese ore in the manganese - silicon sector, and supply - contraction factors in the ferrosilicon sector [9][10]. - For coking coal and coke, in the short term, the inventory structure restricts demand, but there may be upward price impulses due to market sentiment. In the long term, the price of coking coal is expected to rise during the period from June to October [16]. - The industrial silicon market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly under cost support. The polysilicon market has weak fundamentals, and the price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [19][22]. - The float glass market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to the release rhythm of actual demand and inventory changes. The soda ash market is expected to maintain a weak trend, and attention should be paid to the release rhythm of actual demand and inventory changes in the main production areas [25][27]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Market Conditions - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3140 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.25%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 416,49 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.5149 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 34,623 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3260 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3310 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.09%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 474,288 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.1720 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 7990 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3280 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3290 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Views - The real estate data from January to February was weak, and the real estate investment repair momentum was insufficient. The short - term support from the real estate sector for steel demand was limited, and the terminal demand for steel was likely to remain weak. The fundamentals of steel were in a neutral - to - weak state, and the price was expected to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the release rhythm of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material prices on the cost side [2]. Iron Ore Market Conditions - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 811.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.67% (-5.50), and the position changed by -6207 lots to 455,500 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 869,400 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 794 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 32.54 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.86% [4]. Strategy Views - The overseas ore shipments increased month - on - month in the latest period. The daily average pig iron output decreased month - on - month. The port inventory increased slightly. Affected by negotiation issues and overseas geopolitical conflicts, the iron ore price fluctuated widely. Attention should be paid to the progress of subsequent negotiations and the development of the geopolitical situation [5]. Manganese - Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Conditions - On March 18, due to the continuous Middle - East war, the crude oil price fluctuated sharply at a high level, weakening the commodity atmosphere. The main contract of manganese - silicon (SM605) closed down 1.63% at 6138 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese - silicon in Tianjin was 6000 yuan/ton, with a premium of 52 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) closed down 2.23% at 5796 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 6000 yuan/ton, with a premium of 204 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. Strategy Views - In the context of the long - lasting US - Iran conflict, the overall sentiment in the commodity market is bullish. The fundamentals of manganese - silicon are not ideal, while those of ferrosilicon are good. Future market trends are mainly affected by the overall market sentiment, cost - push factors of manganese ore in the manganese - silicon sector, and supply - contraction factors in the ferrosilicon sector [9][10]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Conditions - On March 18, due to the continuous Middle - East war, the crude oil price fluctuated sharply at a high level, weakening the commodity atmosphere. The main contract of coking coal (JM2605) rose in the morning and then dived, closing down 1.66% at 1156.5 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1454.7 yuan/ton, with a premium of 105.5 yuan/ton over the futures price; the price of medium - sulfur main coking coal was 1300 yuan/ton, with a premium of 127.5 yuan/ton over the futures price; the price of Mongolian 5 clean coal in Wubulangquan Industrial Park was 1210 yuan/ton, with a premium of 28.5 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 0.61% at 1721.5 yuan/ton. The spot price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, with a premium of 4 yuan/ton over the futures price; the price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1495 yuan/ton, with a discount of 11 yuan/ton to the futures price [12]. Strategy Views - In the short term, the inventory structure restricts the demand for coking coal and coke, but there may be upward price impulses due to market sentiment. In the long term, the price of coking coal is expected to rise during the period from June to October [16]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Conditions - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) was 8375 yuan/ton, with a change of -2.16% (-185). The weighted contract position increased by 13,684 lots to 364,466 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 825 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9600 yuan/ton, with a basis of 425 yuan/ton [18]. - Polysilicon: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) was 40,105 yuan/ton, with a change of -3.76% (-1565). The weighted contract position decreased by 340 lots to 54,305 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 44 yuan/kg, the average price of N - type dense material was 43 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 45.5 yuan/kg, all remaining unchanged from the previous day. The basis of the main contract was 5395 yuan/ton [20]. Strategy Views - Industrial silicon shows a pattern of weak supply and demand and is expected to fluctuate weakly under cost support. Polysilicon has weak fundamentals, and the price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [19][22]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Conditions - Glass: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1066 yuan/ton, down 2.56% (-28). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1070 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1090 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On March 12, the weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 75.849 million boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 3.788 million boxes (-4.76%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 16,472 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 20,788 lots [24]. - Soda ash: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1211 yuan/ton, down 2.57% (-32). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1201 yuan, a decrease of 22 yuan from the previous day. On March 12, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.9317 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,500 tons (-4.76%), including 918,100 tons of heavy soda ash, a month - on - month decrease of 1800 tons, and 1.0136 million tons of light soda ash, a month - on - month decrease of 13,700 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 5146 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 2834 lots [26]. Strategy Views - The float glass market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to the release rhythm of actual demand and inventory changes. The soda ash market is expected to maintain a weak trend, and attention should be paid to the release rhythm of actual demand and inventory changes in the main production areas [25][27].

研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 3 月 19 日星期四 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周三夜盘主力合约上涨 88 元至 8868 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 8795 元/吨（-55）， 华南瓶片价格 8900 元/吨（+0）。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 4080 手至 6.35 万手， 空头持仓增加 3366 手至 6.68 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | 震 荡 偏 | 【重要资讯】 1、供应和成本利润方面，国内聚酯瓶片产量为 32.32 万吨，环比+0.64 万吨。国内 聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 69.8%，环比+1.3%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 7067 元，环 比+230 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为 216 元/吨，环比+230 元/吨。 2、2025 年 12 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 ...