Core Viewpoint - Recent nickel price declines are influenced by various factors, including supply pressures and changes in mining policies in Indonesia and the Philippines [2][3][4]. Supply Factors - Nickel prices are under pressure due to significant oversupply, with Indonesian and Philippine mining policies contributing to this situation. The removal of export bans in the Philippines and high supply growth from Chinese nickel companies have exacerbated the oversupply [3][4]. - Nickel inventory levels have increased significantly, with nickel pig iron inventory rising to 31,500 tons and refined nickel inventory increasing nearly eightfold to 39,000 tons [3]. Demand Factors - Domestic demand for refined nickel is expected to grow faster than supply in the first half of the year, with a 60.82% year-on-year increase in apparent consumption [6]. - However, demand from stainless steel and ternary precursor sectors remains weak, limiting the growth potential for refined nickel consumption [6][7]. Global Inventory Trends - Global refined nickel inventory accumulation is slowing down due to supply-side disruptions and the impact of low nickel prices on high-cost producers, leading to production cuts [5][6]. - The LME inventory has shown a decline since April, particularly in Russian-origin stocks, indicating a potential tightening in supply [5]. Price Outlook - Short-term nickel price declines may be limited due to high nickel ore prices and ongoing inventory depletion [7]. - However, there remains potential for further price declines as raw material prices may still adjust downward, and demand from stainless steel production is not expected to improve significantly [7]. Market Focus - Future market attention should be directed towards changes in Indonesian mining policies, the impact of price declines on high-cost supply, and the ability of pure nickel inventories to deplete effectively [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel variety, the supply shortage of nickel ore in Indonesia persists, and prices remain stable with strong cost support. However, the oversupply of refined nickel remains unchanged. It is expected to experience a weak oscillation in the near term, and the mid - to long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [3]. - For the stainless - steel variety, despite steel mill production cuts, overall demand is sluggish, leading to inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate downward in the near term, and the mid - to long - term strategy is also to sell on rallies for hedging [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On June 9, 2025, the main contract 2507 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,280 yuan/ton and closed at 122,710 yuan/ton, a 0.47% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 115,890 lots, and the open interest was 76,246 lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel rose rapidly in the night session, then oscillated and fell back to near the previous day's closing price. In the day session, it oscillated up to near the night - session high and then slightly declined, closing with a medium - sized positive candle. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased compared to the previous trading day [2]. - The shipping efficiency of the Surigao mining area in the Philippines has recovered well. Iron plants have implemented production cuts due to losses, weakening the demand for nickel ore. In Indonesia, the nickel ore supply shortage in the Sulawesi nickel mining area persists due to rainfall. The domestic trade benchmark price in June (Phase I) dropped by about $0.02, with a premium of +26 - 28, and the overall price was basically flat month - on - month [2][3][4]. - China's estimated refined nickel output in June is 37,345 tons, a 3.75% increase month - on - month. In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel increased by about 500 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the quotations of mainstream brands decreased. The refined nickel spot trading was average, with the oversupply situation remaining unchanged but strong cost support at the bottom [2]. - The previous day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,192 (35.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 199,092 (- 1,014) tons [2]. Strategy - Short - term: Range - bound operation. - Mid - to long - term: Sell on rallies for hedging. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - On June 9, 2025, the main contract 2507 of stainless steel opened at 12,715 yuan/ton and closed at 12,655 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 107,364 lots, and the open interest was 146,067 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel oscillated and fell to the previous low after a slight consolidation in the night session. In the day session, it dropped rapidly to a new low and then rebounded slightly, closing with a medium - sized negative candle. The trading volume and open interest increased compared to the previous trading day [3]. - Similar to the nickel situation, the shipping efficiency of the Surigao mining area in the Philippines has recovered well. Iron plants have cut production due to losses, weakening the demand for nickel ore. The nickel ore supply shortage in the Sulawesi nickel mining area in Indonesia persists due to rainfall [3][4]. - The domestic trade benchmark price in June (Phase I) dropped by about $0.02, with a premium of +26 - 28, and the overall price was basically flat month - on - month. The high - nickel iron price is 950 - 960 yuan/nickel, and some Indonesian iron plants have switched to high - grade nickel matte production [4]. - In the spot market, the stainless - steel futures price dropped slightly. The price limit of Tsingshan 304 hot - and cold - rolled products was lowered by 100 yuan, and traders' cold - rolled prices followed suit. The market had rigid demand for purchases, and the trading of low - price resources was average. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,050 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was also 13,050 yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 465 - 665 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 949.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - Short - term: Neutral. - Mid - to long - term: Sell on rallies for hedging. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Lithium Carbonate - Short - term market sentiment eases, and the futures market stabilizes temporarily. However, there is a lack of actual positive news, and the short - term fundamentals still face pressure. The raw material ore end is gradually loosening, and the support at the bottom is weakening. It is expected that the short - term futures market will run in a weak range, with the main contract operating between 560,000 - 620,000 yuan. [1] Nickel - Recently, the macro situation is stable, the cost support of refined nickel has slightly weakened, and the medium - term supply is still abundant, restricting the upward space. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan. [4] Stainless Steel - The futures market returns to the fundamental trading logic. The ore end provides some support for prices, and the raw material nickel - iron price is weakly stable. The stainless - steel production remains high, and the demand improvement is slow. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate weakly, with the main contract operating between 12,600 - 13,200 yuan. [7] Zinc - In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle. If the ore - end growth rate is lower than expected and the downstream consumption performs better than expected, the zinc price may maintain a high - level shock pattern. Otherwise, the zinc price may decline. It is recommended to short on rallies in the long - term, with the main contract reference range of 21,000 - 23,000 yuan. [10] Alumina - In the short - term, the alumina fundamentals may turn to a relatively loose pattern, and the spot price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the lower reference cash cost at around 2,700 yuan. [13] Aluminum - In the short - term, the low inventory and low warehouse receipts support the aluminum price, and the short - term rebound of coal - related prices also supports the cost. However, the increase in aluminum market tariffs and the pre - emptive exports have overdrawn some future demand. It is expected that the domestic aluminum price will face pressure in the future, with the lower reference at around 19,000 yuan. [13] Copper - Under the combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", there is no clear trend for the copper price. The strong fundamentals limit the downward space, and the weak macro - expectations limit the upward space. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the main contract reference range of 77,000 - 80,000 yuan. [14] Tin - In the short - term, the tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the slow supply - side recovery and the rebound driven by macro - sentiment. However, considering the pessimistic demand expectation, it is recommended to short after the sentiment stabilizes. [16] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 60,250 yuan/ton, up 0.08% from the previous day. SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 58,600 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 61,700 yuan/ton, down 0.68%. SMM industrial - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 55,700 yuan/ton, down 0.71%. [1] Fundamental Data - In May, lithium carbonate production was 72,080 tons, down 2.34% month - on - month. Battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 51,573 tons, up 2.33%. Industrial - grade lithium carbonate production was 20,507 tons, down 12.41%. Lithium carbonate demand was 93,938 tons, up 4.81%. In April, lithium carbonate imports were 28,336 tons, up 56.33%, and exports were 734 tons, up 233.72%. [1] Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price is 123,900 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 2,400 yuan/ton, down 2.04%. 1 imported nickel average price is 122,700 yuan/ton, up 0.33%. [4] Fundamental Data - In May, China's refined nickel production was 35,350 tons, down 2.62% month - on - month. In April, refined nickel imports were 8,832 tons, up 8.18%. SHFE inventory was 27,075 tons, up 0.45% week - on - week. Social inventory was 41,553 tons, down 1.97%. [4] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 13,050 yuan/ton, unchanged. [7] Fundamental Data - In April, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 179.12 million tons, up 0.36% month - on - month. Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 36.00 million tons, unchanged. Stainless - steel imports were 14.21 million tons, up 10.26%, and exports were 44.78 million tons, down 4.85%. [7] Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot average price is 22,590 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. The premium is 300 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan. [10] Fundamental Data - In May, refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, down 1.08% month - on - month. In April, refined zinc imports were 2.82 million tons, up 2.40%, and exports were 0.25 million tons, up 75.76%. [10] Alumina Price and Basis - Alumina (Shandong) average price is 3,260 yuan/ton, unchanged. Alumina (Henan) average price is 3,302 yuan/ton, unchanged. Alumina (Shanxi) average price is 3,280 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. [13] Fundamental Data - In May, alumina production was 727.21 million tons, up 2.66% month - on - month. [13] Aluminum Price and Basis - SMM A00 aluminum average price is 20,210 yuan/ton, down 0.10%. SMM A00 aluminum premium is 80 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. [13] Fundamental Data - In May, electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, up 3.41% month - on - month. In April, electrolytic aluminum imports were 2.8 million tons, and exports were 1.37 million tons. [13] Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 78,875 yuan/ton, unchanged. SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 85 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. [14] Fundamental Data - In May, electrolytic copper production was 113.83 million tons, up 1.12% month - on - month. In April, electrolytic copper imports were 25.00 million tons, down 19.06%. [14] Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin average price is 263,900 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. SMM 1 tin premium is 1,200 yuan/ton, up 4.35%. [16] Fundamental Data - In April, tin ore imports were 9,861 tons, up 18.48%. In May, SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, down 2.37%. [16]

2025-06-04日沪镍主力合约2507开于121250元/吨，收于122590元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.85%，当日成交量为 117416手，持仓量为83546手。 沪镍主力合约2507今天低开高走，日线收中阳线。07主力合约的成交量对比上个交易日有所放大，持仓量有小幅 减少。从量能方面来看，日线MACD的绿柱面积在缓慢缩窄，短周期内或许下跌趋势接近尾声，60分钟线在5月26 日的122000附近出现底背离现象，但端午节前的大幅下探击穿底背离的支撑位，关注上方122000-123000短期一线 压力位置，下方关注120000整数关口附近短线支撑位置。现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价较上个交易日上调525元 /吨，市场主流品牌报价均有一定的涨幅。近期精炼镍盘面以弱势震荡为主，盘面虽有反弹迹象，但市场观望态度 居多，今天精炼镍现货成交整体表现一般，升贴水对比上个交易日有小幅下调，升贴水近期处于平稳的态势。其 中金川镍升水变化-50元/吨至2500元/吨，进口镍升水变化50元/吨至350元/吨，镍豆升水为 -450元/吨。前一交易日 沪镍仓单量为22299（261.0）吨，LME镍库存为201624（162） ...

Group 1 - Indonesia is preparing to establish a domestic metal trading market for nickel and other metals, with plans to launch in the first half of 2026 [1] - Indonesia is the world's largest nickel producer and holds the largest nickel reserves globally [1] - The government has banned nickel ore exports since 2020 to attract smelting investments and aims to exert greater influence over nickel prices, which are projected to drop to a four-year low by the end of 2024 [1] Group 2 - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) has proposed the establishment of a metal exchange, which has received government approval [1] - The initial phase of the exchange will focus on nickel pig iron contracts, with plans to expand to other nickel products and metals [1] - The APNI is studying the concept and structure of the exchange based on existing systems used by the London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange [1] Group 3 - The goal of the initiative is to control the global nickel market [1] - Eric Koh from LME welcomed the plan, emphasizing the need for a regional pricing mechanism based on local supply and demand to complement global pricing [1] - Daniel McElduff from Abaxx Exchange highlighted the importance of considering the timing and regulatory environment for the plan's success [2]

期货热点追踪 印尼镍矿协会正在筹备本国金属交易所，2026年上半年启动，镍价能否迎来转机？ 相关链接 ...

光期研究 镍 & 不 锈 钢 月 度 策 略 报 告 2 0 2 5 年 6 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 镍&不锈钢：压力渐显 p 2 4、观点：镍矿价格表现平稳，周内印尼镍矿配额消息扰动，实际SMM与ESDM就此类问题进行了询问，ESDM某官员表示，近两周暂时未对补充配额进行大批量的审 批。不锈钢产业链方面，原料端镍铁成交冷清，参考价格仍维持940元/镍点，成本端依旧有支撑，供应端国内和海外均有减产，但整体需求较为疲软，前期跟随镍价下 跌后或有修复，但需求将制约价格上方的阻力。新能源方面，硫酸镍供需双弱，据富宝统计，6月三元正极排产环比微降。一级镍方面，国内和LME库存均环比下降。 短期镍价快速下跌后或有修复，当前市场矛盾并不突出，主要是镍矿坚挺叠加一级镍去库利多，而不锈钢和新能源的需求疲软制约，但继续向上需要新驱动因素，短 期仍偏震荡运行。 p 3 目 录 1价格：月内沪镍跌3.7%，LME镍跌1.2%，各品种价格均有下跌 2.库存：周内LME库存减少1644吨至200142吨；沪镍库存减少113吨至2 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel market, the cost of Indonesian nickel - iron plants is inverted, leading some plants to consider production cuts. The price pressure may shift to the ore end, but the supply of nickel ore is tight. The market sentiment is weak, with an expected short - term downward trend and a long - term strategy of selling hedges at high prices [3][4]. - For the stainless - steel market, the cost situation of Indonesian nickel - iron plants and the planned maintenance of some stainless - steel plants may support the market, but overall market sentiment is weak. It is expected to oscillate downward in the near term, and the long - term strategy is also selling hedges at high prices [4][6]. 3. Summary by Category Nickel Market Analysis - **Market Performance**: On May 29, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2507 opened at 119,640 yuan/ton and closed at 120,480 yuan/ton, a - 0.63% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 181,192 lots, and the open interest was 102,540 lots. The contract price decreased at the beginning of the night session, then rebounded, and continued to rise during the day session, closing with a mid - sized positive line. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased compared to the previous day [2][3]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: In the nickel ore market, the trading atmosphere was calm. Philippine resources in June were on sale, but shipments were affected by rain. Downstream iron plants were in losses and were reluctant to pay high prices for nickel ore. In Indonesia, the quota increased to 3.2 billion tons, and the domestic trade benchmark price in June (Phase I) decreased by about $0.02. Some iron plants planned to cut production due to high costs. The supply of refined nickel remained in surplus, and the market sentiment was pessimistic. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,170 (- 174.0) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 200,142 (- 720) tons [3]. - **Spot Market**: Jinchuan nickel's morning quotation decreased by about 1,625 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the prices of other mainstream brands also dropped. Although the nickel price rebounded during the day, the spot trading of refined nickel was average. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed to 2,500 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium was 250 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was - 450 yuan/ton [3]. Nickel Market Strategy - **Overall Strategy**: It is expected to decline weakly in the near term, and the long - term strategy is to sell hedges at high prices. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, the main strategy is range trading. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Stainless - steel Market Analysis - **Market Performance**: On May 29, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2507 opened at 12,740 yuan/ton and closed at 12,690 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 139,550 lots, and the open interest was 101,554 lots. The contract price decreased at the beginning of the night session, then rebounded, rose during the day session, and slightly declined in the afternoon, closing with a positive line. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest slightly increased compared to the previous day [4]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: Some stainless - steel plants have maintenance plans in June. In the spot market, the stainless - steel futures price rebounded slightly, but some steel mills and agents lowered their quotes. Cold - rolled transaction prices mostly followed the decline. The market had rigid demand, and low - priced resources had good transaction volumes. The price of stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan markets was 13,100 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 460 - 660 yuan/ton. The ex - factory average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 954.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Stainless - steel Market Strategy - **Overall Strategy**: It is expected to oscillate downward in the near term, and the long - term strategy is to sell hedges at high prices. - **Trading Strategies**: The single - side strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-29 受印尼配额消息影响，镍价破位下跌 镍品种 市场分析 2025-05-28日沪镍主力合约2506开于121990元/吨，收于119950元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-2.10%，当日成交量 为158844手，持仓量为106713手。 沪镍主力合约夜盘小幅低开后弱势横盘振荡，日盘开盘后振荡小幅下跌，午后受印尼镍矿配额增加传闻影响，破 位下跌，收大阴线。成交量较上个交易日有所增加，持仓量较上个交易日有所增加。当地时间25日，美国总统特 朗普表示，欧盟请求将关税谈判期限延长至7月9日，他已同意这一请求。1-4月全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总 额21170.2亿元，同比增长1.4%，较1-3月加快0.6个百分点，延续恢复向好态势。镍矿市场交投氛围较为平静，菲 律宾6月资源持续在售，但受降雨天气影响，装船出货受阻。下游铁厂利润亏损，对镍矿原料采购压价心态难改。 印尼方面，印尼方面，近期传出配额新增至3.2亿吨，镍矿供应紧张6月（一期）内贸基准价下跌0.02美元左右，升 水尚在洽谈中。印尼镍铁生产成本高企，成本亏损下，部分铁厂已有减产意愿。现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价 较上个 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-05-29 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-05-29 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 美联邦法院阻止特朗普 4 月 2 日关税政策生效 观点分享： 据央视新闻报道，当地时间 5 月 28 日，美国联邦法院阻止了美国总统特朗普在 4 月 2 日 "解放日"宣布的关税政策生效，并裁定特朗普对向美国出口多于进口的国家征收全面关税 的决策为越权。位于纽约曼哈顿的国际贸易法院表示，美国宪法赋予美国国会独家权力来规 范与其他国家的贸易，而总统声称为保护美国经济而行使的紧急权力并不凌驾于这些权力之 上。该诉讼由美国非营利、无党派诉讼机构自由正义中心代表五家受关税影响的美国小企业 提起，这是对特朗普关税政策的首次重大法律挑战。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 锡 | ★★★★ | 锡：昨日锡价大幅下跌，跌幅近 3%，主要受到消息面影响，市场一度传言佤邦复产进度， 另外近期多数商品下跌，宏观情绪偏差，而有色板块整体估值较高，锡作为远端基本面较弱 的品种亦被情绪交易。然而基本面仍然维持强现实弱预期格局，据钢联了解 ...