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2025年8月涤纶短纤策略报告-20250804
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 08:23
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The polyester staple fiber market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, with cost under pressure. It is expected that the price of polyester staple fiber will follow the cost trend. PTA has large - scale device maintenance plans in August, but with the commissioning of new devices, the monthly output is expected to change little. The supply of ethylene glycol is recovering well, and the domestic operating rate has room for improvement, which will put pressure on the cost - end price. In the off - season, there will still be device maintenance for polyester staple fiber in August, the operating rate is expected to decline, and the demand is weak. Overall, the supply and demand of polyester staple fiber are both weak, and the cost - end is under pressure [65]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyester Staple Fiber Price: Fluctuating with Crude Oil Price - **Spot and Futures Price Changes**: From July 4 to August 1, 2025, the PF main contract closing price dropped from 6514 yuan/ton to 6382 yuan/ton, a decrease of 132 yuan/ton or 2.0%. The 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6770 yuan/ton to 6600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton or 2.5%. The basis decreased from 256 yuan/ton to 218 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan/ton or 14.8% [4]. - **Monthly Spread Changes**: From July 4 to August 1, 2025, the PF01 - PF05 spread changed from - 12 yuan/ton to - 56 yuan/ton, a change of - 44 yuan/ton with a growth rate of 366.7%. The PF05 - PF09 spread changed from - 26 yuan/ton to 120 yuan/ton, a change of 146 yuan/ton with a growth rate of - 561.5%. The PF09 - PF01 spread changed from 38 yuan/ton to - 64 yuan/ton, a change of - 102 yuan/ton with a growth rate of - 268.4% [9]. - **Raw Material Price Changes**: From July 4 to August 1, 2025, the PTA closing price increased from 4710 yuan/ton to 4744 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton or 0.7%. The MEG closing price increased from 4277 yuan/ton to 4405 yuan/ton, an increase of 128 yuan/ton or 3.0%. The PX closing price increased from 6672 yuan/ton to 6812 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton or 2.1% [12]. 2. Polyester Staple Fiber Cost - End: Focus on Device Recovery - **PTA Situation**: As of August 1, the PTA operating load was 72.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1 percentage points. Taihua's 1.5 - million - ton device stopped due to an accident, and Jiaxing Petrochemical's 2.2 - million - ton device was under planned maintenance. Some PTA devices of Yisheng New Materials, Yisheng Dahua, and Yihua reduced their loads recently. A line of Sanfangxiang's 3.2 - million - ton/year new PTA device was put into production at the end of July and produced products, and it was included in the production capacity base in August. The PTA production capacity base in the Chinese mainland was adjusted to 9171.5 million tons on August 1, 2025. In June 2025, the PTA output was 6.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 500,000 tons or 8.7%, and a month - on - month increase of 350,000 tons or 5.9%. In June 2025, China's PTA exports were 255,200 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or 3.78% from the previous month. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 1.8568 million tons, a decrease of 377,700 tons or 16.90% compared with the same period last year [13][14]. - **MEG Situation**: As of August 1, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 68.64% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.97%), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 74.04% (a month - on - month increase of 5.79%). In June 2025, the output of ethylene glycol produced by the ethylene method was 981,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. The output of ethylene glycol produced by the syngas method was 605,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. The domestic ethylene glycol output was 1.586 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%. In June 2025, China's ethylene glycol imports were 617,800 tons, with a cumulative import volume of 3.8454 million tons. The import volume increased by 2.34% month - on - month and decreased by 1.30% year - on - year. The cumulative import volume increased by 19.91% compared with the same period last year. On July 28, the MEG port inventory in the main ports of East China was about 521,000 tons [18][21]. 3. Polyester Staple Fiber Supply - End: In the Off - Season - **Operating Load**: As of August 1, the operating load of polyester staple fiber was 90.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5 percentage points. Some polyester staple fiber devices still have maintenance plans in the future [65]. - **Inventory**: As of August 1, the inventory of polyester staple fiber was 13.5 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.7 days [31]. 4. Polyester Staple Fiber Demand - End: Weak Orders - **Downstream Operating Rates**: As of August 1, the operating rate of polyester yarn was 61.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.3 percentage points. The operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 61%, a month - on - month decrease of 5 percentage points [35]. - **Output and Consumption**: According to national statistics, in June 2025, the yarn output of enterprises above designated size was 2.065 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% and a month - on - month increase of 5.84%. From January to June, the yarn output was 11.398 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%. In June 2025, the cloth output of enterprises above designated size was 2.78 billion meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% and a month - on - month increase of 4.12%. The cumulative cloth output from January to June was 15.37 billion square meters, the same as the same period last year. In June 2025, China's exports of uncombed polyester staple fiber (primary + recycled) were 141,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons or 11.88% from the previous month, with an average export price of 903.01 US dollars/ton. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 809,400 tons, an increase of 184,200 tons or 29.46% compared with the same period last year [40][45]. - **Inventory of Intermediate Products**: As of June 2025, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 27.23 days, an increase of 4.89 days from the end of last month. The cloth inventory was 36.61 days, an increase of 3.72 days from the end of last month. In the off - season, the finished product inventory of textile enterprises continued to increase [42]. 5. Polyester Staple Fiber Terminal Demand: Terminal Demand Underperforms Expectations - **Textile and Garment Exports**: In June, textile and garment exports were 27.31 billion US dollars, a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.1%. Among them, textile exports were 12.05 billion US dollars, a decrease of 1.6% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.6%. Garment exports were 15.27 billion US dollars, an increase of 1% and a month - on - month increase of 12.4%. From January to June, the cumulative textile and garment exports were 143.98 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.8%. Among them, textile exports were 70.52 billion US dollars, an increase of 1.8%, and garment exports were 73.46 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.2%. Due to the slowdown of exports from ASEAN and South Asia to the US, the demand for importing yarn and fabrics decreased, resulting in a 1.9% and 1.6% decrease in China's textile intermediate product exports in May and June respectively, which dragged down the overall exports [50]. - **Domestic Consumption**: From January to June 2025, the national online retail sales were 7.4295 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods were 6.1191 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.0%, accounting for 24.9% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods. In the online retail sales of physical goods, the sales of food, clothing, and daily necessities increased by 15.7%, 1.4%, and 5.3% respectively. In June 2025, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were 4.2287 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 3.7649 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8%. From January to June, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were 24.5458 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 22.199 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.5% [53]. 6. Polyester Staple Fiber Positioning Situation - **Futures Positioning**: As of July 31, 2025, the positions of PF2601, PF2605, and PF2509 were 12,354 lots, 69 lots, and 83,202 lots respectively. Compared with July 24, 2025, the positions of PF2601 increased by 5,951 lots, PF2605 increased by 1 lot, and PF2509 decreased by 24,592 lots. Compared with July 31, 2024, the positions of PF2601 increased by 11,411 lots, PF2605 increased by 36 lots, and PF2509 increased by 35,723 lots [57]. - **Options**: The report also presents historical volatility and historical volatility cone charts of polyester staple fiber options, but no specific data analysis is provided [59].
三维股份:8月4日召开董事会会议
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-04 08:17
三维股份(SH 603033,收盘价:10.71元)8月4日晚间发布公告称,公司第五届第十八次董事会会议于 2025年8月4日在公司四楼会议室以现场结合通讯的方式召开。会议审议了《关于选举代表公司执行公司 事务的董事的议案》等文件。 2024年1至12月份,三维股份的营业收入构成为:BDO及电石占比32.86%,聚酯化纤占比32.56%,橡胶 行业占比26.18%,轨道交通占比4.78%,其他占比3.36%。 (文章来源:每日经济新闻) ...
PXTA月报:供需基本维持平衡,TA中长期适宜作为空配-20250804
Zhe Shang Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 05:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA (TA509), it is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. The supply - side second - quarter centralized maintenance has ended, downstream polyester is weakening in the off - season, and factors such as tariffs may affect medium - and long - term terminal consumer exports. In the third quarter, the overall supply - demand pattern is weak, and PTA should be short - positioned in the medium - and long - term [1]. - For p - xylene (PX509), it is also in a stage of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. After the third - quarter centralized maintenance ends, the supply - side load recovers, downstream polyester starts to weaken in the off - season, and factors like tariffs may affect medium - and long - term terminal consumer exports. The subsequent price center is likely to weaken, and it can be short - tested in the third quarter [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Overview and Strategy - **Supply**: PX and PTA device maintenance plans are few in the third quarter. PE and PTA loads are at a moderately high level, and new devices are put into production smoothly. Supply will be sufficient in the second half of the year [12]. - **Demand**: Polyester starts at around 88% recently, with inventory at a moderately high level after restocking, but profit is weak. Terminal data is average, and the demand in the peak season this year may not be too optimistic [12]. - **Spot**: PTA spot basis is weak, with the spot premium over the 09 - contract at about 0 yuan/ton [12]. - **Valuation**: Recent valuation changes are small, currently oscillating around 200 US dollars/ton in 2018, and the spot processing fee is about 200 yuan/ton. The industrial chain valuation is neutral, and whether it can be maintained depends on the polyester's start - up rate on the demand side [12]. - **Unilateral Strategy**: Against the background of relatively cheap crude oil on the cost side, PTA is considered bearish in the medium - and long - term. Near the peak season, the peak - season expectation may bring a rebound. In the short - term, it may oscillate strongly, but in the medium - and long - term, it should be treated bearishly, and it is suitable to hold PTA as a short - position in energy - chemical or commodity portfolios [12]. 3.2 Market Review: July Market Trends - PTA prices oscillated in July, with the price center slightly rising following the cost - side crude oil. From the supply - demand perspective, there were no significant highlights in July, with weak off - season demand and compressed overall valuation. Affected by strong commodity macro - sentiment and rising crude oil prices, it showed an oscillating upward trend with small self - fluctuations [18]. 3.3 PX Fundamental Analysis - **Device Changes**: The Xianglongdao project had no progress in the first half of the year. Recently, the device is in line with expectations, and the PX load has been rising in the third quarter, returning to the normal level range of previous years. The market trading focus has shifted to the impact of domestic macro - policies on commodities, and the supply - demand may be balanced in the third quarter [28]. - **Profit**: The PX processing fee is around 260 US dollars/ton recently, remaining at a high level this year. If the supply - demand remains balanced, PXN may oscillate in this range, and attention should be paid to whether demand can effectively support it [43]. 3.4 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Start - up Rate**: The effective start - up rate is 80%. Recently, multiple devices have been overhauled as planned, and the PTA load is at a normal level. There are few overhaul plans in the third quarter, and the impact of new device production on this year's supply - demand pattern may be limited [61]. - **Profit**: The spot processing fee is around 200 yuan/ton, which is currently in a neutral position. As supply recovers, the basis weakens, and the spot processing fee is compressed [62]. 3.5 Polyester Fundamental Analysis - **Start - up**: Polyester starts at 88%. Due to inventory pressure in the off - season, polyester factories have cut production. As the off - season ends, attention should be paid to the inventory performance before the Peak Season. Whether the demand can return to a high load in the peak season may be the core factor for the industrial chain's valuation [69]. - **Profit**: The profit of polyester bottle chips has been at the bottom of the historical level, resulting in low start - up rates and possible post - ponement of new device production. Most polyester varieties have poor profits due to strong raw material prices [72]. - **Inventory**: After terminal restocking, the polyester burden has been digested to some extent. Currently, terminal demand confidence is insufficient, and short - term production and sales are difficult to maintain. Polyester is likely to accumulate inventory, and attention should be paid to inventory changes, which will greatly affect the expectation of peak - season load [87]. 3.6 Terminal Weaving Fundamental Analysis - **Start - up**: The weaving start - up rate is 58%. The terminal situation is average in terms of order index, start - up, and inventory data. Domestic macro - policies have led to strong raw material prices, which may further compress terminal demand expectations. Although the peak season is approaching, the overall situation may not be very optimistic [93]. - **Export**: The export data of clothing and textile products shows certain fluctuations, and the trade situation is affected by various factors such as tariffs [102][110]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **PX**: The supply - demand is basically balanced in the third quarter, with production, import, and consumption showing certain trends and year - on - year changes [121]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation is also analyzed in the balance sheet, including production, import, consumption, and inventory changes, etc. Production is estimated based on device overhauls and new device commissions, and import and export are inferred according to trade contracts and price differences [121]. 3.8 Basis and Spread Analysis - **PX**: The basis and spread of the PX09 contract show certain trends, which can provide arbitrage opportunities and reflect market supply - demand and price relationships [125]. - **PTA**: The basis and spread of PTA contracts (such as TA01, TA09, etc.) also show different trends, having an impact on trading strategies and market expectations [126][135]. 3.9 Position and Trading Volume Analysis - **PX**: The position and trading volume of the PX09 contract show certain changes, which can reflect market participation and trading sentiment [140]. - **PTA**: The position and trading volume of the PTA09 contract also show corresponding trends, affecting price fluctuations and market supply - demand relationships [140].
8月PX供应恢复,关注成本端支撑
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-03 12:59
期货研究报告|PX&PTA&PF&PR 月报 2025-08-03 8 月 PX 供应恢复,关注成本端支撑 市场分析 价格和基差方面,7 月 PX 和 PTA 价格月初偏弱运行,随后大幅上涨,月底回落。月 初盘面震荡偏弱,需求端笼罩在淡季减产的氛围中;随后月中在反内卷政策预期下宏 观情绪大幅改善,商品普涨,PX/PTA 价格跟随上涨,PXN 从 260 美元/吨附近反弹至 280 美元/吨,终端也在原料涨价效应下集中补库;月底,在政治局会议和中美经贸谈 判落地后市场情绪回落,PX/PTA 价格回落,在现货供应逐步宽松以及主流供应商出货 下,PTA 现货基差大幅下降,PTA 现货加工费维持低位。PR 和 PF 方面,7 月原油偏强 支撑,国内受供给侧改革、"反内卷"等宏观利好支撑,聚酯原料先弱后强,聚酯瓶片市 场随原料先抑后扬运行,PF 现货加工利润整体转弱,瓶片加工费在减产下有所修复。 汽油和芳烃方面,7 月汽油裂解价差偏弱运行,美国汽油库存近五年季节性高位,汽油 市场对 PX 影响有限。芳烃方面,今年的调油需求已不值得过多的期待。3~7 月韩国出 口到美国的芳烃调油料甲苯+MX+PX 有明显下降。7 月短流 ...
银河证券:“反内卷”浪潮下涤纶长丝周期弹性值得关注
news flash· 2025-08-03 05:05
银河证券研报认为,长期来看,涤纶长丝终端纺织服装需求增速相对稳健,行业投产高峰已过,龙头自 律约束下,未来行业供应或更有序,目前涤纶长丝价差仍处于历史偏低水平运行,存向上修复空间。短 期来看,目前涤纶长丝生产企业、织造企业原料备货和坯布库存均处于偏低水平,参照季节性规律,下 半年需求旺季有望自8月逐步启动。此外,2025年四季度原油累库预期暂难以证伪,预计成本端上行空 间有限。"反内卷"浪潮下涤纶长丝周期弹性值得关注。 ...
【吉林化纤(000420.SZ)】粘胶长丝景气持续,碳纤维板块有望减亏——动态跟踪报告(赵乃迪/胡星月)
光大证券研究· 2025-08-02 00:03
Group 1: Viscose Filament Yarn Segment - The company is gradually increasing its market share in the viscose filament yarn sector, with global production capacity estimated at 250,000 to 280,000 tons per year, and China's capacity stable at around 210,000 to 240,000 tons per year [4] - As of the end of 2024, the company has a production capacity of 90,000 tons per year for viscose filament yarn, with a diverse range of differentiated products, capturing over 45% of the high-end market [4] - The company achieved a revenue of 2.791 billion yuan in the viscose filament yarn segment in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4%, while the gross margin for viscose filament and short yarn was 20.44%, a decrease of 1.03 percentage points year-on-year [4] Group 2: Carbon Fiber Segment - The carbon fiber industry is experiencing improved market conditions, with the company operating a 12,000 tons per year carbon fiber composite production line, achieving a capacity utilization rate of 44.59% in 2024 [5] - The company reported a revenue of 320 million yuan from its carbon fiber segment in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6%, with a gross margin of -26.74%, an increase of 7.1 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The average price of carbon fiber in China has shown signs of stabilization, with a reported price of 83.75 yuan/kg as of July 31, 2025, a year-on-year decline of 8.2% [5] Group 3: Industry Capacity and Trends - The carbon fiber industry is currently facing overcapacity, with a total production capacity of 159,500 tons in China, and an expected addition of approximately 465,300 tons from 2025 to 2028 [6] - The majority of production enterprises are currently operating at a loss, which may delay the actual release of planned capacities [7] - The central government's strong stance on "anti-involution" is expected to help reduce supply and increase industry concentration, thereby improving the overall market conditions for the carbon fiber industry [7]
跟全球做生意
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-08-01 21:43
Group 1: Market Adaptation - Chinese companies are adjusting their strategies in response to global trade tensions, focusing on new markets and internal adjustments to maintain growth [1][2] - Jiangsu Hengli Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd. is shifting its focus to Southeast Asia due to a lack of complete supply chains and significant demand for raw materials [2][3] - The company has seen over 60% of its export revenue come from new markets in recent years, with a 30% annual growth rate in exports to Belt and Road countries [3] Group 2: Agricultural Sector Opportunities - Shandong Lisen Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd. is expanding its operations in Europe, capitalizing on the high demand for agricultural technology and products [3][4] - The company has established over 270 greenhouses in more than 40 countries, leveraging China's agricultural resources and expertise [4] Group 3: International Procurement Market - China's exports to the United Nations procurement market have significant potential, with over $10 billion in goods procured in 2023, of which one-third originated from China [6] - Many Chinese companies face barriers in accessing this market due to information gaps and complex registration processes [6][7] - Public Procurement Digital Technology (Beijing) Co., Ltd. is facilitating connections between Chinese manufacturers and UN procurement opportunities, helping to bridge the gap [6][7] Group 4: Domestic Market Growth - The domestic agricultural market is showing strong growth, with a projected 15.8% increase in online retail sales of agricultural products in 2024 [9] - Companies like Guangdong Zhongli Agricultural Group Co., Ltd. are shifting focus to domestic markets, reducing reliance on single markets and adapting to consumer preferences [8][9] Group 5: Challenges in Transitioning to Domestic Sales - Companies face challenges in adjusting products to meet domestic standards, building brand recognition, and establishing sales channels in the domestic market [10][11] - Initiatives by the Ministry of Commerce and platforms like Meituan are helping foreign trade companies expand their domestic sales channels [10][11]
新凤鸣最新筹码趋于集中
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-08-01 13:43
Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the number of shareholders for the company Xin Feng Ming has decreased for the third consecutive period, with a reduction of 1,255 shareholders, representing a 5.20% decline compared to the previous period [2] - As of the latest report, Xin Feng Ming's closing price was 12.29 yuan, down 0.41%, but the stock price has increased by 5.95% since the concentration of shares began, with 6 days of increases and 4 days of decreases during this period [2] - The company's Q1 report shows that it achieved an operating income of 14.557 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.73%, and a net profit of 306 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.35%, with basic earnings per share at 0.2100 yuan and a weighted average return on equity of 1.76% [2]
宏观金融数据日报-20250801
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 06:24
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View - After consecutive strong rallies, with the phased realization of macro - level positives, the upward speed of stock indices may slow down, and market volatility and adjustments should be watched out for [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market and Operation - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.40% with an 8.17bp increase, DR007 at 1.55% with a 3.67bp increase, GC001 at 1.03% with a 75.00bp decrease, GC007 at 1.43% with a 19.50bp decrease, SHBOR 3M at 1.57% with a 0.20bp increase, LPR 5 - year at 3.50% with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.37% with a 1.25bp decrease, 5 - year treasury at 1.56% with a 1.25bp decrease, 10 - year treasury at 1.71% with a 1.50bp decrease, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.38% with a 4.00bp increase [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 2832 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 3310 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 478 billion yuan. This week, there are 16563 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, but government bond issuances and certificate of deposit maturities are lower than last week, and month - end fiscal expenditures may speed up, which could bring incremental funds to the inter - bank market [3]. Stock Index Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 closed at 4076 with a 1.82% decrease, the SSE 50 at 2776 with a 1.54% decrease, the CSI 500 at 6226 with a 1.40% decrease, and the CSI 1000 at 6661 with a 0.85% decrease. The trading volume of the two markets was 19360 billion yuan, an increase of 918 billion yuan from the previous day. Industry sectors generally declined, with energy metals, steel, coal, mining, photovoltaic equipment, real estate development, shipbuilding, precious metals, and chemical fiber industries leading the decline [3]. - **Futures Contracts**: IF's current - month contract closed at 4070 with a 1.8% decrease, IH's at 2777 with a 1.6% decrease, IC's at 6187 with a 1.3% decrease, and IM's at 6612 with a 0.9% decrease. IF's trading volume was 156196 with a 13.2% increase, IH's was 75925 with a 7.0% increase, IC's was 119559 with a 13.6% increase, and IM's was 267774 with a 15.8% increase. IF's open interest was 270987 with a 1.4% decrease, IH's decreased, IC's was 227163 with a 1.2% decrease, and IM's was 348264 with a 0.5% increase [3]. - **Premium and Discount**: IF's current - month contract had a premium of 3.10%, IH's had a discount of - 1.23%, IC's had a premium of 15.22%, and IM's had a premium of 17.89% [5].
中国银河证券:涤纶长丝产能趋于集中 行业自律激发周期弹性
智通财经网· 2025-08-01 06:16
Core Viewpoint - The long-term demand growth for polyester filament is relatively stable, with the peak of industry production capacity expansion having passed, leading to a more orderly supply in the future under the self-discipline of leading companies. The current price spread of polyester filament remains at a historically low level, indicating potential for upward correction [1] Supply - The capacity growth of polyester filament is gradually slowing, with the market share of leading companies increasing. The industry saw significant capacity expansion in recent years, particularly among leading enterprises, with the CR4 reaching 60.2% in 2024, an increase of 18.3 percentage points since 2019. The actual capacity is expected to decline for the first time in 2024, indicating a more orderly supply increase in the future [2] Demand - The demand for textiles and apparel is expected to grow steadily, with retail sales of clothing and textiles in China increasing by 3.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. The export volume of polyester filament is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.6% from 2017 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 10.8% in the first half of 2025. The demand is anticipated to strengthen seasonally as the peak season begins in August [3] Cost - The supply and demand outlook for raw materials is weak, with the prices of PX and PTA closely linked to oil prices. The import dependence of PX is expected to decrease from 60.8% in 2018 to 20.0% in 2024, while PTA is shifting from net importer to net exporter. Although oil prices are supported by seasonal demand and geopolitical uncertainties, the expectation of global oil inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter of 2025 may limit upward price movement [4] Profitability - The polyester filament industry has a solid foundation of self-discipline, with leading companies implementing measures such as "production limits to maintain prices" and "coordinated operating rates" since May 2024. The price spread of polyester filament has rebounded from the lows of 2023, demonstrating strong profitability resilience, especially amid complex international trade conditions [5] Investment Targets - Companies to watch include Xin Fengming (603225.SH), Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233.SH), and Hengyi Petrochemical (000703.SZ) [6]