1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Monday saw a decline in international crude oil prices due to factors such as the resumption of normal operations in some Iraqi oil fields, the continuous production - increase plan of OPEC+, high - level US crude oil production, and an increase in crude oil inventory. However, the ongoing Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the expected Fed rate cut next week are likely to support prices. Short - term Brent crude is expected to trade between $60 - 65 per barrel [1]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, the continuous decline in Thai raw material prices, the expected increase in overseas supply, the weakening of upstream cost support, and the seasonal increase in overseas shipments have led to a continuous build - up of natural rubber inventory, suppressing spot prices. On the demand side, although tire production is gradually recovering, the overall output increase is limited, and the market is mainly focused on inventory digestion. Short - term rubber prices are expected to be weak and volatile [3]. Methanol - Methanol futures fluctuated narrowly. Spot was purchased on - demand, and the basis was firm. Inland supply increased with plant restarts, but coal - and gas - based production profits were weak. Traditional downstream demand increased slightly, and winter fuel demand provided support. In ports, Iranian gas restrictions led to multiple plant shutdowns, strengthening the expectation of inventory reduction, but high overseas shipments and a large number of registered warrants kept prices weak. Attention should be paid to MTO05 [6][7]. LLDPE and PP - The operating load of polyethylene is gradually increasing, and supply is on the rise. Although upstream inventory is being depleted, it is still higher than the same period last year, and the profit from naphtha cracking is low. The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase after maintenance, and inventory depletion is accelerating, but the overall inventory level is still high. The cost of propylene is strong, compressing the profit of PP production processes. Overall, the fundamentals show a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - For pure benzene, domestic supply is expected to remain stable, downstream cash flow has improved slightly, but demand support is limited. There will be a large number of imports arriving at ports, and port inventory is expected to continue to build up. The short - term price driver is weak, and it may follow oil prices and styrene fluctuations. For styrene, although planned and unplanned maintenance is expected to increase, the overall operating rate may rise slightly, and port inventory may continue to decline. However, due to weak cost support and seasonal weakening of terminal demand, the upside space is limited [14]. Urea - Supply pressure is continuously released as the daily production on December 8 reached a recent high. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream procurement willingness is weak. Although the inventory depletion rate of enterprises has accelerated, the overall inventory level is still high. The mismatch between supply and demand is the main reason for price decline, and short - term prices are expected to be weak and volatile [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, short - term supply is less affected, but there is an expected supply contraction in the medium - term. Demand is relatively strong, and short - term price drivers are limited, but medium - term support is strong. PTA supply is expected to decrease in November - December, and demand is relatively strong, with short - term price support. Ethylene glycol is expected to continue to decline due to high overseas supply and inventory build - up. Short - fiber supply remains high, and demand is seasonally weak, with limited price drivers. Polyester bottle - chip supply is expected to increase in December, and demand is weak, with processing fees expected to be squeezed [16]. LPG - The data shows price fluctuations in LPG futures and spot markets, as well as changes in inventory and operating rates. Overall, the market is in a state of adjustment, and attention should be paid to changes in supply and demand and international market prices [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash production is at a high level, and it is expected to return to the inventory - build - up pattern this week. Downstream demand is shrinking, and the supply - demand pattern is bearish. Glass prices in some regions are weakening, and although there is still some short - term demand support, the medium - and long - term demand outlook is not optimistic [19]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda industry supply is abundant, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be weak. PVC supply pressure remains high, demand is low, and although there is some export advantage, overall supply exceeds demand, and prices are expected to be weak [20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude fell from $63.75 to $62.49 per barrel (-1.98%), WTI from $60.08 to $58.88 per barrel (-2.00%), and SC rose from 453.40 to 456.40 yuan/ton (0.66%). Various spreads also showed different degrees of change [1]. - **Refined Oil**: Prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil all declined, and their spreads also changed [1]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: Crack spreads of various refined oil products in different regions decreased [1]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan Guofu new - type rubber increased slightly, while the price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased. The basis of whole - milk rubber increased [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread increased significantly, while the 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 spreads decreased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, production in Thailand, Indonesia, and China decreased, while production in India increased. Tire production and export decreased, and inventory increased [3]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices showed small fluctuations, and various spreads also changed [6]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all decreased [6]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rates increased slightly, while some downstream operating rates changed [7]. LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP decreased slightly, and various spreads changed [11]. - **Operating Rates and Inventory**: PE and PP operating rates showed different trends, and enterprise and social inventories decreased [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Crude oil, naphtha, and other upstream prices changed, and spreads between products also changed [14]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene prices and spreads showed different degrees of change [14]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories and operating rates in different regions changed [14]. Urea - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices and spreads changed [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased, demand was weak, and inventory was at a high level [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Upstream crude oil, naphtha, and other prices changed, and downstream polyester product prices and cash flows also changed [16]. - **PX, PTA, and MEG**: Prices, spreads, inventory, and operating rates of PX, PTA, and MEG all changed [16]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LPG changed, and various spreads also changed [17]. - **External Market Prices**: LPG external market prices increased slightly [17]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: LPG inventory decreased, and upstream and downstream operating rates changed [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash prices and spreads changed [19]. - **Supply, Inventory, and Real - Estate Data**: Supply, inventory, and real - estate data showed different trends [19]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda prices and spreads changed [20]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Supply, demand, and inventory of PVC and caustic soda showed different trends [20].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - In the US, November PMI shows weak manufacturing but strong services, indicating overall stable growth [1] - The market is fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in December, with expectations of a signal to pause further cuts afterward [1] - Japan's central bank is expected to raise interest rates, leading to an increase in bond yields and greater asset volatility [1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Conditions - China's November manufacturing PMI shows a marginal recovery but remains seasonally weak, while the services PMI has declined again [1] - Supply and demand indicators have shown marginal improvement, and price indicators have also recovered, reflecting that the foundation for domestic demand recovery still needs further consolidation [1] - There is a noticeable increase in expectations for stable real estate policies, which could further support demand and expectations if implemented [1] Group 3: Market Strategy - In the bond market, there was a loosening of liquidity across months, with reports indicating the central bank's strategy of "short-term collection and long-term release," leading to weak sentiment in the bond market [1] - The overnight funding price fell below 1.3%, suggesting that the central bank's strategy is aimed at preventing fund turnover and reducing bank liability costs, rather than tightening monetary policy [1] - The fundamental and liquidity conditions remain favorable for the bond market, but the lack of bullish momentum may keep interest rates in a fluctuating pattern [1] Group 4: A-share Market - The A-share market has been fluctuating without clear policy guidance, with trading volume continuing to decline [2] - There is a slight reversal in style, with a rebound in the previously corrected technology growth sector [2] - Looking ahead to December, the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference and FOMC meeting are expected to provide clearer market direction [2] Group 5: Hong Kong Market and Commodities - Following the December FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve may signal a pause in rate cuts, which could temporarily hinder capital inflow into the Hong Kong market [3] - In the oil market, initial rate cuts may not boost demand, as supply continues to be released and inventories accumulate, keeping prices under pressure [3] Group 6: Gold Market - The potential pause in rate cuts after the December FOMC meeting may cause short-term disturbances in gold prices, but the long-term development trend remains positive [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The overseas market focuses on the Fed's policy trends and the expected appointment of the next Fed Chair. The market anticipates potential rate cuts, but their implementation is uncertain. Asset prices will show structural differentiation. The domestic economy shows marginal improvement, but the foundation for growth is not yet solid. The Politburo meeting sets a positive tone for policies, and attention should be paid to policy implementation. [1][2][3] - In the financial futures market, the stock index is expected to be volatile in the short - term with a neutral - to - bullish outlook. The bond market's yield decline depends on policy and interest rate changes. The RMB exchange rate is supported by domestic policies, and attention should be paid to US economic data and the next Fed Chair's policy orientation. [2][3][4] - In the commodities market, precious metals are expected to be volatile in the short - term and bullish in the long - term. Copper, aluminum, and zinc prices are affected by the Fed's meeting and market fundamentals. Carbonate lithium's short - term impact is limited, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to be in a volatile range. [9][12][15] - In the black market, steel products' prices are supported by raw material costs and policy expectations. Iron ore prices have limited downside space, and coking coal and coke prices are under pressure. Ferroalloys are expected to be weakly volatile. [23][24][26] - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil prices are expected to decline in the medium - term due to supply - demand imbalances. LPG is expected to be strongly volatile. PTA - PX, MEG - bottle chips, etc. are affected by demand decline and supply - side factors. [28][29][30] - In the agricultural products market, the supply - demand situation of pigs in the peak season needs verification. Oilseeds and oils are expected to be volatile, waiting for market guidance. Cotton prices have limited downside space, and sugar prices remain weak. [62][63][66] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Domestic macro - policies will be more proactive. The Politburo meeting emphasizes the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies. China's November foreign trade growth rebounded significantly. Overseas, the US has various political and economic events, and the market focuses on the Fed's policy trends. [1][2][3] RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar weakened slightly. Domestic macro - policies support the RMB exchange rate. The Fed's meeting and the next Fed Chair's policy orientation are key factors. Export enterprises are recommended to lock in forward exchange settlement, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy. [2][3][4] Stock Index - The stock index rose collectively, and the trading volume increased. Multiple positive factors stimulated the stock index, but the market remains cautious. It is recommended to maintain a neutral - to - bullish view and hold long positions. [4] Treasury Bonds - The bond market was affected by the Politburo meeting. The monetary policy remains "moderately loose," and the fiscal policy is "more proactive." It is recommended to hold long - term positions and wait and see in the short - term. [4][5] Container Shipping to Europe - The SCFIS European line index rose slightly. The market is in a long - short game, with factors such as shipping companies' price - raising intentions and the European economic situation affecting the market. The implementation of price - raising plans and the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea are risks. [6][7] Commodities Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - Precious metals are affected by the Fed's rate - cut expectations and spot market delivery issues. They are expected to be volatile in the short - term and bullish in the long - term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the Fed's meeting and delivery volume. [9][10][11] Copper - Copper prices are cautious before the Fed's meeting. The inventory shows different trends, and the industry's operating rate is expected to rise. It is recommended to watch more and act less in the near future and for enterprises to consider buying raw materials. [12][13][14] Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is expected to be strongly volatile, affected by macro - sentiment and copper. Alumina is in an oversupply situation and is expected to be weakly volatile. Cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strongly volatile, and attention should be paid to the price difference with aluminum. [15][16] Zinc - Zinc prices are strongly volatile, affected by macro and fundamental factors. The upside space is limited, and caution is needed when chasing high prices. [16] Tin - Tin prices are in a high - level shock. They are affected by the Fed's meeting and supply - side factors. It is recommended to enter the market on dips. [16][17] Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium's short - term impact is limited. The import of lithium ore from Nigeria has a limited impact on the short - term market. The futures and spot markets show different pricing logics. [18][19] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to be in a volatile range. Polysilicon is expected to be weakly volatile due to weak supply and demand. [19][20][21] Lead - Lead prices are strongly volatile, supported by inventory and demand. The short - term shock range is expected to be around 16900 - 17500. [21][22] Black Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil - Steel products' prices are supported by raw material costs and policy expectations. The supply - demand balance is improving, but the profit of steel mills is marginal. The price range of rebar is expected to be 3000 - 3300, and that of hot - rolled coil is 3200 - 3500. [23] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices have fallen, but the downside space is limited. The supply is increasing, and the demand is seasonally decreasing. Attention should be paid to the Fed's meeting and the domestic economic work meeting. [23][24] Coking Coal & Coke - Coking coal prices have fallen due to weak macro - environment and changes in supply - demand. Coke supply is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the price - cut rhythm of steel mills. [24][25][26] Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese - Ferroalloys are affected by weak demand and high inventory. They are expected to be weakly volatile, and their downside space is limited. [26][27] Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - Crude oil prices have fallen due to the fading of geopolitical premiums. They are expected to be in a volatile and downward trend in the medium - term, affected by factors such as the Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation and supply - demand imbalances. [28][29] LPG - LPG is in a strongly volatile pattern, affected by supply - demand and external factors. The domestic market has relatively strong fundamentals, and it is expected to maintain a volatile pattern. [29][30][31] PTA - PX - PX - PTA is affected by demand decline and market sentiment. The supply - demand structure is relatively good, but the upward drive is limited. It is expected to follow the market sentiment and cost fluctuations. [31][32][33] MEG - Bottle Chips - MEG is affected by terminal demand decline and supply - side factors. The demand negative feedback will gradually spread, and the supply - demand is expected to be in an oversupply situation. It is recommended to short on rallies. [33][34] Methanol - Methanol is affected by delivery games. The 01 contract is expected to reduce positions significantly, and it is recommended to hold short - call options and 1 - 5 reverse spreads. [35] PP - PP is affected by low - profit and weak market sentiment. The supply is expected to be stable or slightly increase, and the demand is weak. It is not recommended to short further. [37][38] PE - PE is in a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The supply pressure is large, and the demand growth space is limited. It is expected to maintain a bottom - shock pattern. [39][40] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, and styrene is supported by the spot market and is in a strong - running pattern. [41][42] Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil has rebounded from the bottom, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a low cracking spread. It is recommended to wait and see for both. [43][44] Asphalt - Asphalt is affected by winter storage policies. The winter storage may be around 2750 - 2830 yuan/ton. It is recommended to use option sellers for two - way strategies or pay attention to the BU03 basis long - matching opportunity. [45][46][47] Rubber - Rubber is in a weakly volatile pattern, affected by supply - demand and macro - environment. It is recommended to wait and see on the short - term single - side and pay attention to the support at the lower edge of the range. [48][49] Agricultural Products Pigs - The supply - demand situation of pigs in the peak season needs verification. The policy may affect the long - term supply, and the short - term is mainly based on fundamentals. The near - month has an oversupply pressure, and the far - month is bullish due to expectations. [62] Oilseeds - The market is concerned about the USDA December report. Imported soybeans' supply and demand are affected by factors such as purchase and arrival. Domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal have different supply - demand situations. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the contract change. [63][64][65] Oils - Oils are in a volatile pattern, waiting for market guidance. Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by factors such as production, export, and supply. [66] Cotton - Cotton prices have limited downside space due to new cotton listing and downstream demand. Attention should be paid to the breakthrough of the hedging pressure level at around 13800. [66][67] Sugar - Sugar prices remain weak due to sufficient supply and weak demand. [67][68] Eggs - Egg prices have rebounded in the short - term. The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still in excess, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to participate in the long - position game with a light position. [69][70] Apples - Apple futures show a pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term. The inventory is decreasing, and the market is still in a relatively strong pattern. [70][71] Jujubes - Jujubes are in a low - level shock pattern. The new - season jujube production is being determined, and the price is expected to have limited downside space. [71][72][73]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others [9]. - For each sector, options strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties [9]. - An options strategy report is prepared for each options variety based on underlying market analysis, options factor research, and options strategy suggestions [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Underlying Futures Market Overview - The report presents data on the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of various energy - chemical futures, including crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2601) is 448, with a decrease of 8 and a decline rate of - 1.84%, and a trading volume of 6.76 million lots [4]. 3.2 Options Factors 3.2.1 Volume - Open Interest PCR - The volume - open interest PCR data of different options varieties are provided, which can be used to describe the strength of the underlying market and the turning point of the market. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil options is 0.67 with a change of - 0.02, and the open interest PCR is 0.68 with a change of 0.06 [5]. 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The report shows the pressure and support levels of each option variety from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 540 and the support level is 440 [6]. 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data of various option varieties are given, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatilities. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 24.685%, and the weighted implied volatility is 26.17% with a change of - 0.99% [7]. 3.3 Options Strategies and Suggestions for Each Variety 3.3.1 Energy - Related Options (Crude Oil, LPG) - **Crude Oil** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: US crude oil production slightly increased, refinery processing volume rose, and global floating storage increased. The market showed a weak trend [8]. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility was below the average, the open interest PCR was below 0.70, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 540 and the support level was 430 [8]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a bear - spread put option strategy, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. - **LPG** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Crude oil prices fluctuated around $63. The domestic LPG market was relatively strong due to low arrivals and strong chemical demand. The market was in a range - bound state with support below and pressure above [10]. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility was around the average, the open interest PCR was below 0.80, indicating a range - bound market. The pressure level was 4500 and the support level was 4150 [10]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a neutral - biased short call + put option combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.3.2 Alcohol - Related Options (Methanol, Ethylene Glycol) - **Methanol** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Enterprise inventories declined. The market showed a weak trend with pressure above after a rebound [10]. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility was around the historical average, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 2300 and the support level was 2000 [10]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a bear - spread put option strategy, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Port inventories increased, downstream demand was limited, and the market showed a weak downward trend [11]. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility was above the average and rising, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating strong short - side forces. The pressure level was 3900 and the support level was 3850 [11]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a bear - spread put option strategy, a short - volatility strategy, and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.3.3 Olefin - Related Options (PVC, Polypropylene, etc.) - **PVC** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Inventories were in a build - up cycle, and the market showed a weak downward trend with bearish sentiment [11]. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility decreased to below the average, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a continuous weakening market. The pressure level was 4600 and the support level was 4300 [11]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a bear - spread put option strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Polypropylene** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: No detailed description in the given text. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility was at a certain level, and relevant PCR data were provided [5][106]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: No detailed description in the given text. 3.3.4 Rubber - Related Options (Rubber, Synthetic Rubber) - **Rubber** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Tire production capacity utilization rates changed, and the market showed a weak consolidation trend [12]. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility gradually returned to around the average, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level dropped to 16000 and the support level was 15000 [12]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a neutral - biased short call + put option combination strategy [12]. - **Synthetic Rubber** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: No detailed description in the given text. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility and relevant PCR data were provided [5]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: No detailed description in the given text. 3.3.5 Polyester - Related Options (PTA, Short - Fiber, etc.) - **PTA** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Factory inventories were expected to accumulate, and the market showed a rebound and then a small - range fluctuation trend with pressure above [12]. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility was at a relatively low average level, the open interest PCR was around 0.80, indicating a range - bound market. The pressure level was 4800 and the support level was 4500 [12]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a neutral - biased short call + put option combination strategy [12]. - **Short - Fiber** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: No detailed description in the given text. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility and relevant PCR data were provided [5]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: No detailed description in the given text. 3.3.6 Alkali - Related Options (Caustic Soda, Soda Ash) - **Caustic Soda** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Production capacity utilization increased, and the market showed a weak downward trend [13]. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility was at a high level, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 2240 and the support level was 2120 [13]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a bear - spread combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Soda Ash** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Production increased, inventories were at a high level, and the market showed a weak downward oscillation trend [13]. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility was at a relatively high historical level, the open interest PCR was below 0.50, indicating a bearish market. The pressure level was 1860 and the support level was 1100 [13]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a bear - spread combination strategy, a short - volatility combination strategy, and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.3.7 Urea Options - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Supply pressure was alleviated to some extent, and the market showed a low - level oscillation and then a rebound trend [14]. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility was at a relatively low historical average level, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating strong short - side pressure. The pressure level was 1800 and the support level was 1660 [14]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a neutral - biased short call + put option combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [14].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-12-09 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空情绪增强，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近期俄乌冲突有望降温，美国从中斡旋试图尽快结束双方战事。地缘溢价减弱削弱国际 油价继续反弹动力。近期沙特将其主要原油品种对亚洲的售价下调至五年来最低水平，与此同时全 球原油库存不断累积，原油市场正处在 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The overall supply is high, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - For urea, the market is oscillating upwards. The demand has improved due to reserve needs and increased compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. With support from export policies and costs, it is expected to build a bottom through oscillation. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [8]. - For rubber, a neutral - bullish approach is currently adopted. It is recommended to buy on short - term dips and exit quickly. A hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is suggested to be held [13]. - For PVC, the industry's comprehensive profit is at a historical low, but supply is high and demand is weak. With an oversupply situation, it is recommended to short on rallies [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, when the inventory reversal point appears, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, it may be supported by cost changes in Q1 next year [25]. - For PX, it is expected to slightly accumulate inventory in December. With a neutral valuation, it is recommended to consider going long on dips [26]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to stabilize, and the demand may maintain a high level in the short term. It is recommended to consider going long on dips based on expectations [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak in the medium term. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 4.20 yuan/barrel, or 0.93%, to 457.60 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also showed increases. European ARA weekly data showed mixed inventory changes in refined products, with a net decrease of 0.39 million barrels in total refined oil inventory [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, and wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 5, remained stable in Lunan, and decreased by 7.5 in Inner Mongolia. The 01 contract on the futures market rose 12 yuan to 2089 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 9 [5]. - **Strategy**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market consolidates. With high inventory and supply pressure, it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong and Henan decreased by 20, remained stable in Hubei. The 01 contract decreased by 27 yuan to 1646 yuan, with a basis of + 34 [8]. - **Strategy**: The market is oscillating upwards. With improved supply - demand and support from policies and costs, it is recommended to buy on dips [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price is consolidating weakly. The exchange's RU inventory is low, which is a potential bullish factor. Tire factory operating rates are mixed, and the social inventory of natural rubber has increased [11]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral - bullish approach, buy on short - term dips and exit quickly, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract rose 5 yuan to 4431 yuan. The spot price in Changzhou decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The cost of ethylene increased, while the price of caustic soda decreased. The overall operating rate decreased, and both factory and social inventories increased [13]. - **Strategy**: With high supply and weak demand, it is recommended to short on rallies [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene both increased. The supply - side upstream operating rate decreased, and the port inventory of styrene increased. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate increased slightly [18]. - **Strategy**: When the inventory reversal point appears, go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The futures price decreased by 68 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 40 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The downstream operating rate increased slightly [21]. - **Strategy**: The long - term contradiction has shifted, and it is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The futures price decreased by 36 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate increased, and the inventory decreased. The downstream operating rate increased slightly [23][24]. - **Strategy**: In a weak supply - demand situation with high inventory, it may be supported by cost changes in Q1 next year [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The 01 contract rose 56 yuan to 6842 yuan. The load of PX and PTA decreased slightly. The inventory increased in October, and the valuation is at a neutral level [25]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to slightly accumulate inventory in December. With a neutral valuation, consider going long on dips [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 contract rose 16 yuan to 4694 yuan, and the spot price in East China decreased by 20 yuan. The PTA load remained unchanged, and the downstream load increased slightly. The inventory decreased in November [26]. - **Strategy**: The supply is expected to stabilize, and the demand may maintain a high level in the short term. Consider going long on dips based on expectations [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The 01 contract decreased by 22 yuan to 3701 yuan, and the spot price in East China decreased by 60 yuan. The supply - side load decreased slightly, and the port inventory increased significantly [28]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak in the medium term. Short on rallies in the medium term [29].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-12-09 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.20 | 49.00 | 50.30 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 49.50 | 50.10 | 50.00 | | 20251114 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 11.50 | 12.80 | | 202511 ...

大家好！ 市场分析人士认为，国际油价下跌，投资者一方面关注旨在结束乌克兰冲突的谈判进展，同时等待本周预期中的美联储降息。 赵若晨表示，目前市场主要关注俄乌"和平协议"达成的可能性，若协议达成进度超预期，油价下跌或加速。 卓创资讯（301299）成品油分析师于雅欣认为，短期国际油价难以走出单边行情，或延续区间整理走势。 高盛近日报告预测，即便没有俄乌"和平协议"，由于非俄地区供应强劲，布伦特原油和WTI原油价格将在2026年分别下降至56美元/桶和52美元/桶。 内外因素共振股指期货表现强势 昨日，A股主要股指悉数走高，股指期货亦全线上扬。 12月8日，国际油价下挫。截至当日收盘，2026年2月交货的布伦特原油期货价格收于62.5美元/桶，跌幅为1.97%；2026年1月交货的WTI原油期货价格收于 58.83美元/桶，跌幅为2.08%。 谈及A股表现强势的原因，南华期货（603093）权益与固收研究分析师廖臣悦表示，主要受内外多重利好因素提振：从海外来看，上周五美国9月PCE数 据显示通胀企稳、未超出市场预期，显著强化了市场对美联储在本月降息的预期，同时全球流动性宽松预期升温，北向资金等外资回流动力增强。从国 ...

期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 宏观经济 2025年12月8日 证监许可【2011】1288号 11月份，中国出口机电产品2059亿美元，同比增长9.7%，1-11 月累计同比增长8.0%，去年全年增长7.5%。1-11月高新技术产品出 口同比增长6.6%，去年全年增长4.8%。1-11月集成电路出口同比增 长24.7%，去年全年增长17.4%。前11个月出口汽车（包括底盘）同 比增长16.7%，去年全年增长15.5%。前11个月出口船舶同比增长26. 8%，去年全年增长57.3%。前11个月出口家电同比下降3.6%，去年 全年增长14.1%。前11个月出口手机同比下降11.2%，去年全年下降 3.1%。前11个月出口箱包及类似容器同比下降13.5%，去年全年下降 3.2%。前11个月出口玩具同比下降12.1%，去年全年下降1.7%。前1 1个月出口服装及衣着附件同比下降4.4%，去年全年增长0.3%。前1 1个月出口家具及零件同比下降5.9%，去年全年增长5.8%。今年中国 出口更高科技含量产品和传统优势出口产品的增长速度明显分化。 11月位于中国进口金额前列的还是集成电路和大宗商品。11月中 国进 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：陈栋 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 12 月 8 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 多空强弱持续 能化涨跌互现 核心观点 橡胶：本周一国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现放量增仓，冲高回落， 震荡偏弱的走势，盘中期价重心略微下移至 15065 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价略微收低 0.03%至 15065 元/吨。1-5 月差升水幅度收敛至 35 元/吨。目前国内胶市由供需基本面所主导，胶价维持区间内震荡。 宝城期货金融研究所 宝城期货投资咨询部 甲醇：本周一国内甲醇期货 2601 合约呈现缩量减仓 ...