Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market Information - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder price is 794, up 4 daily and 2 weekly, with an import profit of 19.31; PB powder price is 797, up 4 daily and 2 weekly, with an import profit of -12.85; Mac powder price is 795, up 10 daily and 10 weekly, with an import profit of 49.12; Jinbuba powder price is 750, up 4 daily and 2 weekly, with an import profit of 39.70; Mixed powder price is 740, up 6 daily and 2 weekly, with an import profit of 9.76; Super special powder price is 675, up 2 daily and down 2 weekly, with an import profit of -10.58; Roy Hill powder price is 784, up 4 daily and 2 weekly, with an import profit of 41.96 [1] - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Brazilian mixed powder price is 833, up 4 daily and 3 weekly, with an import profit of 2.39; Brazilian coarse IOC6 price is 761, up 4 daily and down 4 weekly; Brazilian coarse SSFG price is 766, up 4 daily and down 4 weekly [1] - **Other Varieties**: Ukrainian concentrate powder price is 873, up 2 daily and down 2 weekly; 61% Indian powder price is 739, up 4 daily and 2 weekly; Karara concentrate powder price is 878, up 3 daily and 3 weekly; 57% Indian powder price is 610, up 2 daily and down 2 weekly; Atlas powder price is 735, up 6 daily and 2 weekly [1] - **Domestic Ore**: Tangshan iron concentrate powder price is 982, up 6 daily and 6 weekly [1] Futures Market Information - **Dalian Commodity Exchange Contracts**: i2601 price is 801.5, up 3.5 daily and 3.5 weekly, with a monthly spread of -40.5; i2605 price is 783.0, up 4.5 daily and 3.0 weekly, with a monthly spread of 18.5; i2609 price is 761.0, up 4.0 daily and 3.0 weekly, with a monthly spread of 22.0 [1] - **Singapore Exchange Contracts**: FE01 price is 104.05, unchanged daily and down 0.83 weekly, with a monthly spread of -3.69; FE05 price is 102.37, unchanged daily and down 0.49 weekly, with a monthly spread of 1.68; FE09 price is 100.36, unchanged daily and down 0.43 weekly, with a monthly spread of 2.01 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Overall**: The report presents a weekly analysis of the black industry chain, covering various aspects such as market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements of different products including steel products, iron ore, coal - coke, and ferroalloys [1][12][13]. - **Steel Products**: The steel market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to remain at a low level. The impact of short - term domestic macro - market on prices is limited [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market has a continuously loose supply - demand situation. Although the macro - narrative is positive and the industrial chain fundamentals have improved, the price increase is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The price of the main contract of Dalian iron ore is expected to be in the range of 770 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to the foreign market (FE01) price of about 102.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton [13]. - **Coal - Coke**: The fundamentals of the coal - coke market are still weak. Although the coal price has stopped falling and rebounded in the past two weeks, the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly. The price rebound lacks upward support, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to position risk control before the New Year's Day [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloy market is characterized by weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The cost side has relatively strong support, and future attention should be paid to changes in the supply side and the progress of winter storage [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 01 Week - on - Week Market Review - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and price change rates of the futures main contracts and spot prices of various products such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, silicon iron, and scrap steel from December 19 to December 26, 2025 [8]. 3.2 02 This Week's Black Market Forecast 3.2.1 Steel Products - **Logic**: The profitability rate of 247 steel mills increased by 1.3 percentage points to 37.23%, the operating rate decreased by 0.15 percentage points to 78.32%, and the capacity utilization rate increased to 84.94%. The average daily pig iron output increased by 0.03 million tons week - on - week to 2.2658 million tons. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 53.22%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.12 percentage points; the average operating rate was 67.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.6 percentage points. The steel market was mainly in a sideways consolidation state last week. Heavy pollution weather warnings in many places affected the supply side, but it was the off - season for demand, and the weak demand made it difficult for supply changes to drive price increases [12]. - **Viewpoint**: The price is expected to remain at a low level [12]. - **Later Concerns**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [12]. 3.2.2 Iron Ore - **Logic**: Macroeconomically, China's monetary and fiscal policies are in a period of active reserve, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising. The real - end of the industrial chain is in a weak equilibrium stage, and prices maintain a narrow - range fluctuation trend. The inventory pressure on the steel product side has been continuously relieved, and the valuation of the industrial chain has rebounded. The strong spot price of iron ore supports the futures market, and the upcoming steel mill restocking cycle may support prices. In terms of supply, the weekly shipment of foreign mines decreased slightly, and the arrival volume remained at a medium - to - high level and was higher than the same period last year. In terms of demand, domestic demand has stabilized and rebounded slightly, and the restocking demand is expected to be continuously released. In terms of inventory, the steel mill's imported inventory has increased, but it is still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years, and the port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [13]. - **Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract of Dalian iron ore in the range of 770 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to the foreign market (FE01) price of about 102.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton. The strategy is to operate within the range and sell out - of - the - money call options [13]. - **Later Concerns**: Incremental macro - policies, implementation of industrial policies, and supply recovery speed [13]. 3.2.3 Coal - Coke - **Logic**: Last week, the coal - coke futures prices fluctuated widely and closed slightly higher on a weekly basis. The coking coal prices in various regions were weakly stable, and the steel mills completed the third round of price cuts for coke, with further price cut expectations in the market. Coal mines reduced production at the end of the year, and coking enterprises started to replenish inventory moderately, but the overall market transaction was still weak, and the mine - end inventory continued to accumulate. The import volume at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased, and the port supervision area inventory was at a relatively high level. The demand was temporarily stable, and the average daily pig iron output of steel mill blast furnaces stopped falling [16]. - **Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to position risk control before the New Year's Day [16]. - **Later Concerns**: Changes in the production rhythm of coal - coke - steel and changes in the clearance of imported coal [15]. 3.2.4 Ferroalloys - **Logic**: Macroeconomically, the US economy maintains resilience, but there are still internal contradictions. In China, Beijing optimized the purchase - restriction policy, and the central bank carried out MLF operations to release a loose signal. The black metal futures market showed a weak sideways trend last week, and the prices of manganese silicon and silicon iron futures increased slightly. In terms of supply, the production and operating rate of manganese silicon increased, but the operating rate was still significantly lower than the same period in the past five years; the production and operating rate of silicon iron continued to decline slightly. In terms of demand, the weekly demand for manganese silicon increased slightly, while the demand for silicon iron decreased slightly, and both were significantly lower than the same period in the past five years. In terms of inventory, the cost support for both manganese silicon and silicon iron was relatively strong [17]. - **Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and future attention should be paid to changes in the supply side and the progress of winter storage [17]. - **Later Concerns**: Domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel mill profits and production, and domestic production restrictions [17]. 3.3 03 Variety Data 3.3.1 Steel Products - **Rebar**: The output last week was 1.8439 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0271 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.3191 million tons; the apparent demand was 2.0268 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0596 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.169 million tons. The long - process output was 1.5498 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.026 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.3528 million tons; the short - process output was 0.2941 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.001 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0337 million tons. The long - process factory inventory was 1.1345 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.002 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.106 million tons; the short - process factory inventory was 0.2661 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0032 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0787 million tons. The social inventory was 2.9419 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1881 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.1598 million tons; the steel mill inventory was 1.4006 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0052 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.1853 million tons; the total inventory was 4.3425 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1829 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.3451 million tons [20][23][26][30]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The output last week was 2.9354 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0163 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.136 million tons; the apparent demand was 3.0704 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0876 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.0229 million tons. The social inventory was 2.967 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.106 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.6995 million tons; the steel mill inventory was 0.8052 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.029 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0018 million tons; the total inventory was 3.7722 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.135 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.7013 million tons [31][36]. - **Basis**: For rebar in Shanghai, the basis for January was 193 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week increase of 13 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 92 yuan/ton; for May, it was 172 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 77 yuan/ton; for October, it was 123 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 26 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 67 yuan/ton. For rebar in Beijing, the basis for January was 133 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week increase of 33 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 51 yuan/ton; for May, it was 112 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 11 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 17 yuan/ton; for October, it was 63 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 7 yuan/ton. For hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, the basis for January was - 18 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 66 yuan/ton; for May, it was - 13 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 25 yuan/ton; for October, it was - 26 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 15 yuan/ton [39][44][48]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Imported Ore Port Inventory (45 Ports)**: The total imported ore port inventory this week was 158.5866 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.4603 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 9.956 million tons; the Australian ore inventory was 69.4126 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.6865 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.7914 million tons; the Brazilian ore inventory was 56.6956 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.255 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.3277 million tons; the trade ore inventory was 103.6761 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.6995 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.6771 million tons; the average daily port ore removal volume was 3.1506 million tons per day, a week - on - week increase of 0.0161 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.0915 million tons [51]. - **247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory/Daily Consumption**: The inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 88.6019 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3624 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 7.1151 million tons; the inventory - to - sales ratio was 31.64, a week - on - week increase of 0.54 and a year - on - year decrease of 1.88; the daily consumption was 2.8004 million tons per day, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0054 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.0554 million tons; the daily pig iron output was 2.2658 million tons per day, a week - on - week increase of 0.0003 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.0129 million tons [62]. - **247 Steel Mills' Operating Rate/Profitability Rate**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises was 78.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.39 percentage points; the iron - making utilization rate was 84.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.61 percentage points; the profitability rate was 37.23%, a week - on - week increase of 1.3 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.55 percentage points [67]. - **Global Shipment (19 Ports)**: The total global shipment this week was 34.645 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.277 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.027 million tons; the shipment from Australia and Brazil to the world was 27.846 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.407 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.707 million tons; the non - mainstream shipment was 7.159 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.32 million tons [71]. 3.3.3 Coal - Coke - **Coke Inventory**: The total coke inventory (coking enterprises + steel mills + ports) last week was 9.126 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1215 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0772 million tons. The inventory of independent coking enterprises was 0.922 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.011 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.011 million tons; the inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.422 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.085 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.029 million tons; the inventory of 4 ports was 1.782 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0255 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0952 million tons [109]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory (coking enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal washing plants) last week was 27.578 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3023 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3.5825 million tons. The inventory of independent coking enterprises was 10.397 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.034 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.149 million tons; the inventory of 247 steel mills was 0.8067 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0017 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.031 million tons; the inventory of 5 ports was 2.995 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a state of continuous inventory reduction and limited demand during the off - season, with steel prices oscillating. The five major steel products continue to reduce inventory. For rebar, production and demand both increase weekly, and inventory continues to decline. For hot - rolled coils, short - term centralized maintenance and production cuts lead to a slightly larger inventory decline. The iron ore market shows a double - decline pattern in supply and demand, with port inventory continuing to rise slightly. The coking coal and coke market has relatively loose overall supply, and the inventory pressure of coke is not large, but there is a lack of upward momentum in the short term [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - The five major steel products continued to reduce inventory last week. Rebar had both increased production and demand, and its inventory continued to decline. The inventory reduction of hot - rolled coils accelerated slightly, which supported the price, with both futures and spot prices rising and the basis narrowing. The fundamentals of the steel market continued to improve, leading to a rebound in steel prices [9][10]. 02 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: Rebar production increased slightly, while hot - rolled coil production continued to decrease. Rebar production from both blast furnaces and electric furnaces increased. Blast furnace production was 152.38 million tons (up 0.77% month - on - month and down 20.54% year - on - year), and electric furnace production was 29.31 million tons (up 6.35% month - on - month and up 8.76% year - on - year) [13][15][21]. - **开工率**: The blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly month - on - month, while the electric furnace operating rate increased slightly. The national blast furnace operating rate was 78.47% (down 0.20% month - on - month and down 2.58% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 69.123% (up 2.21% month - on - month and down 0.94% year - on - year) [22][26]. - **Profit**: The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils rebounded month - on - month. Rebar profit was +42 yuan/ton (up 21 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 38 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit was - 30 yuan/ton (up 12 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 51 yuan/ton year - on - year) [27][30]. - **Demand**: Rebar demand increased, while hot - rolled coil demand decreased. Rebar apparent consumption was 208.64 million tons (up 2.73% month - on - month and down 4.98% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 298.28 million tons (down 4.39% month - on - month and down 4.46% year - on - year) [31][35]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory continued to decline, with both factory and social inventories decreasing. Rebar total inventory was 452.54 million tons (down 5.62% month - on - month and up 12.29% year - on - year). Hot - rolled coil inventory reduction expanded slightly, with both factory and social inventories declining. Hot - rolled coil total inventory was 390.72 million tons (down 1.60% month - on - month and up 26.33% year - on - year) [36][41][45]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate sector, commercial housing transactions increased month - on - month, while land transactions decreased month - on - month. In the automotive sector, in November 2025, production and sales were 3.532 million and 3.429 million vehicles respectively, up 5.1% and 3.2% month - on - month and 2.8% and 3.4% year - on - year [46][51]. 03 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The arrival volume of iron ore decreased month - on - month. The price index of iron ore was 107.32 (up 2.27% month - on - month and up 5.98% year - on - year). The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2814.7 million tons (down 5.09% month - on - month and up 9.19% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2646.7 million tons (down 2.80% month - on - month and up 23.76% year - on - year) [54][59]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal continued to decline, and the port clearance volume decreased. The daily output of hot metal was 226.55 million tons (down 2.65 million tons month - on - month and down 2.86 million tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 313.45 million tons (down 1.80% month - on - month and down 3.33% year - on - year) [60][64]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore continued to reach new highs, while the iron ore inventory of steel enterprises decreased again. The inventory at 45 ports was 15512.63 million tons (up 0.53% month - on - month and up 4.37% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8723.95 million tons (down 1.25% month - on - month and down 8.86% year - on - year) [65][70]. 04 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of domestic mines increased slightly month - on - month, and Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a high level. The operating rate of coking coal mines was 86.62% (up 1.54% month - on - month and down 0.55% year - on - year), and the average daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 20.47 million tons (up 9.86% month - on - month and up 212% year - on - year) [72][76]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit of independent coking plants decreased month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. The profit per ton of coke was +16 yuan/ton (down 28 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 18 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate was 70.5% (down 1.97% month - on - month and down 2.42% year - on - year) [80][84]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Port inventory decreased month - on - month, and coking plant inventory remained stable. The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 881.37 million tons (down 0.26% month - on - month and up 0.97% year - on - year), and the port inventory of coking coal was 286.17 million tons (down 6.94% month - on - month and down 4.03% year - on - year) [85][90]. - **Coke Inventory**: Port inventory continued to decline, while coking plant inventory increased. The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 51.9 million tons (up 3.57% month - on - month and up 10.19% year - on - year), and the port inventory of coke was 175.65 million tons (down 3.06% month - on - month and up 5.08% year - on - year) [91][96]. - **Spot Price**: The third round of price cuts for coke has started, and the game between steel and coking enterprises continues. The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1600 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton week - on - week and up 50 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Handan was 1440 yuan/ton (stable month - on - month and down 170 yuan/ton year - on - year) [97][101]. 05 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils narrowed slightly, and the 1 - 5 spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coils both narrowed slightly. The coil - to - rebar spread continued to narrow, and the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore narrowed slightly [103][107].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Steel - Steel prices are expected to remain volatile. The upward elasticity of steel prices is constrained by weak demand, but the price is supported by steel mills' production cuts and inventory reduction. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot-rolled coils is 3150 - 3350. The rebar 1 - 5 positive spread can be gradually exited, and attention can be paid to the strategy of going long on the May rebar - iron ore ratio [1]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate. The supply is still at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is difficult to form a trend - like decline. The price is suppressed by high inventory above and supported by the replenishment expectation of steel mills with low inventory below. It is recommended to mainly conduct short - term range operations on the 05 contract, with the reference range of 760 - 810 [4]. Coke - Coke futures have fallen in advance. After the third round of spot price cuts, the basis has weakened, and the rebound driven by expectations is difficult to sustain. It is recommended to take profit on long positions in the coke 2605 contract and switch to shorting on rallies. Arbitrage suggests going long on coking coal and shorting on coke [7]. Coking Coal - The rebound expectation of coking coal has been overdrawn in advance. It is recommended to take profit on long positions and switch to shorting on rallies. Arbitrage suggests going long on coking coal and shorting on coke [7]. Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon still needs to be alleviated, but the production cut expectation has been priced in. The improvement expectation on the demand side is insufficient, and the price rebound lacks sustainability. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the range of 5500 - 5700 in the short term [9]. Ferromanganese - The supply of ferromanganese has increased slightly, and the supply - demand contradiction still exists. The price is expected to continue to operate weakly. It is recommended to short when the price rebounds above the spot cost in Ningxia, with short - term operations as the main strategy [9]. Summary by Directory Steel Price and Spread - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices mostly declined, and futures prices showed mixed trends. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3310 to 3290 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of hot - rolled coils increased from 3280 to 3283 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the cost of some steel products decreased slightly. The profit of hot - rolled coils in North China decreased from - 99 to - 105 yuan/ton [1]. Supply - The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly, and the output of five major steel products decreased by 1.1 tons. However, rebar and hot - rolled coil production increased, with rebar production increasing by 2.7 tons (1.5%) and hot - rolled coil production increasing by 1.6 tons (0.6%) [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 36.8 tons (- 2.8%), the rebar inventory decreased by 18.3 tons (- 4.0%), and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 13.5 tons (- 3.5%) [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume increased by 1.6 (19.1%), the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 1.7 tons (- 0.2%), the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 6.0 tons (- 2.9%), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 8.8 tons (2.9%) [1]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - The cost of iron ore warehouse receipts and spot prices mostly increased slightly, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 (2.3%), while the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1.0 (- 5.1%) [4]. Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 128.0 tons (- 3.6%), and the 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 76.7 tons (- 2.8%) [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged, the 45 - port daily average ore handling volume increased by 1.6 tons (0.5%), and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel output decreased [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 176.2 tons (1.1%), the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 136.2 tons (1.6%), and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 2.0 days (- 9.5%) [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Price and Spread - Coke and coking coal futures prices mostly declined. For example, the 01 contract price of coke decreased by 19 yuan/ton (- 1.1%), and the 01 contract price of coking coal decreased by 18 yuan/ton (- 1.8%) [7]. Supply - Coke production decreased slightly, and coking coal production decreased slightly. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased from 63.0 to 62.7 tons (- 0.5%), and the raw coal output decreased from 856.1 to 853.4 tons (- 0.3%) [7]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged, and the demand for coke decreased [7]. Inventory - Coke and coking coal inventories in ports, steel mills, and coking plants all increased. The total coke inventory increased from 900.5 to 912.6 tons (1.4%), and the coking coal inventory in all - sample coking plants increased from 1036.3 to 1039.7 tons (0.3%) [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Price and Spread - The ferrosilicon主力合约 price decreased by 20.0 yuan/ton (- 0.4%), and the ferromanganese主力合约 price decreased by 6.0 yuan/ton (- 0.1%) [9]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in some regions decreased, and the production profit increased. The production cost of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 6.7 yuan/ton (- 0.1%) [9]. Supply - Ferrosilicon production decreased slightly, and ferromanganese production increased slightly. Ferrosilicon production decreased by 0.1 tons (- 1.34%), and ferromanganese weekly production increased by 0.4 tons (2.34%) [9]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in steelmaking remained stable, and the steel mills' price - pressing sentiment in steel tenders was strong [9]. Inventory - The inventory of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in some sample enterprises changed slightly. The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises decreased by 0.2 tons (- 2.4%), and the inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises increased by 0.1 tons (0.4%) [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore prices continued their weak and volatile trend this week. Affected by the seasonal decline in hot metal production and cautious steel mill procurement, the demand side weakened marginally. The supply side maintained stable shipments, and port inventories continued to accumulate. Coupled with the high valuation, the upward momentum of prices was suppressed. Although there was some order resilience in the finished product market, the clear characteristics of the terminal seasonal off - season made it difficult to provide effective support. In the short term, the pattern of weak supply and demand remained unchanged. The market focus shifted to the extent of hot metal production cuts in January and policy expectations. It was expected that prices would continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to cost support and restocking rhythm [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Global Shipment Volume**: This week, the global iron ore shipment volume was 34.645 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.28 million tons (-3.56%); Australian shipments were 19.506 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02 million tons (-4.97%); Brazilian shipments were 8.641 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.488 million tons (-5.35%); the combined shipments from Australia and Brazil were 28.147 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.508 million tons (-5.09%) [3][38]. - **Four Major Mines' Shipment Volume**: The report presents the shipment volume data of four major mines through multiple charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [46][47]. - **Ocean Freight**: The ocean freight from Western Australia to Qingdao dropped to $8.91 per ton, a week - on - week decrease of $1.45 per ton (-13.99%); the ocean freight from Brazil to Qingdao was $23.62 per ton, a week - on - week decrease of $0.68 per ton (-2.80%) [53]. - **Domestic Port Arrival Volume**: This week, the iron ore arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 26.467 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.767 million tons (-2.82%) [55]. - **Domestic Mine Situation**: The capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 58.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.96% (-1.61%); the daily output of iron concentrate powder was 37,100 tons per day, a week - on - week decrease of 6,100 tons per day (-1.62%) [57]. 3.2 Demand - **Steel Enterprise Production**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 84.94%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.01% (+0.01%); the daily average hot metal output was 2.2658 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 300 tons (+0.01%); the profit ratio was 37.23%, a week - on - week increase of 1.30% (+3.62%) [63]. - **Sintered Powder Consumption**: The daily average consumption of domestic sintered powder was 78,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons (-0.38%); the daily average consumption of imported sintered powder was 610,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 50,500 tons (+9.01%) [65]. - **Global Steel Production**: The report presents data on global blast furnace pig iron production, Chinese blast furnace pig iron production, and global crude steel production through multiple charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [71][75][76]. - **Port Dispatching Situation**: The report presents data on the seasonal dispatching volume of 45 ports and the daily average dispatching volume of Qingdao Port through charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [83][84]. 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: The iron ore inventory at 45 ports in China was 158.5866 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.4603 million tons (+2.23%); the iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 166.1996 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.9443 million tons (+2.43%) [87]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The imported ore inventory of 247 sample steel mills was 88.6019 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3624 million tons (+1.56%); the imported sintered powder inventory was 12.0626 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 257,700 tons (+2.18%) [95]. 3.4 Futures Market - **Main Contract Situation and Basis**: The settlement price of the main contract was 776.50 yuan per ton, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.50 yuan per ton (-0.06%); the basis was 30.02 yuan per ton, a week - on - week narrowing of 4.29 yuan per ton (-12.50%); the Platts iron ore price index was 107.90 US dollars per dry ton, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.20 US dollars per dry ton (+0.19%); the screw - to - ore ratio of the main contract was 4.003 [7]. - **Inter - monthly Spread on the Futures Market**: The 9 - 1 spread was 40.50 yuan per ton, the 1 - 5 spread was 18.50 yuan per ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was 22.00 yuan per ton. The spreads between the domestic and foreign markets and between different varieties maintained narrow - range fluctuations, and there was no obvious structural differentiation [3]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The report presents data on iron ore futures positions, trading volume, and exchange - registered warrants through charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [11][12][16]. 3.5 Spot Market - **Iron Ore Spot Price**: The report presents data on the Platts iron ore index, port spot prices, and Tangshan 66% iron concentrate powder price through charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [17][19][22]. - **Lump - to - Powder Ore Price Spread**: The report presents data on the blending ore price spread, lump - to - powder ore price spread, and price spreads between different grades through charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [23][26][29]. 3.6 Market Viewpoint Summary - **Overall Market Viewpoint Summary**: The market was in a state of loose supply and demand but with improved expectations. With high inventories, prices fluctuated strongly, and macro - sentiment supported prices. - **This Week's Viewpoint Distribution**: 5 institutions were bullish, 7 were neutral, and 1 was bearish. - **Last Week's Viewpoint Distribution**: 3 institutions were bullish, 12 were neutral, and 3 were bearish. - **Points of Disagreement and Expected Differences**: The game between the expected marginal improvement in supply and demand and high inventories and weak demand dominated the short - term divergence in the iron ore market [6]. 3.7 Key News and Industrial Chain Dynamics - **Steel Mill Dynamics**: On December 23, 2025, MagIron, a US steel raw material developer, planned to acquire the local Reynolds pellet plant; on December 24, 2025, Morocco's Somasteel company invested tens of millions of dollars to build a new steel mill; on December 26, 2025, the No. 2 blast furnace of ArcelorMittal's Fos - sur - Mer steel mill in France fully resumed production after a fire [4]. - **Mine Dynamics**: On December 22, 2025, Canadian mining company Champion Iron planned to acquire Norwegian iron ore producer Rana Gruber for $289 million; on December 26, 2025, the Guinea iron ore project of US mining company Ivanhoe successfully obtained the railway and port use agreement; on December 26, 2025, Australian exploration company Pear Gull completed the sale of its Parrot Island iron ore project [4]. - **Macro - news**: On December 22, 2025, the Premier of the State Council proposed to plan a number of major projects that could drive the overall situation; on December 22, 2025, the December LPR remained unchanged; on December 23, 2025, the A - share market showed a narrow - range consolidation with increased trading volume; on December 23, 2025, the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development proposed to promote the spot - house sales system; on December 24, 2025, the initial value of the annualized growth rate of the US real GDP in the third quarter was 4.3%; on December 25, 2025, the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 214,000; on December 26, 2025, the renovation of old residential communities that started construction in the first 11 months had completed the annual plan; on December 26, 2025, China responded to the US tariff policy on China's semiconductor 301 investigation [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Steel Industry**: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate, with rebar in the 3000 - 3200 range and hot - rolled coil in the 3150 - 3350 range. Steel mills' production cuts and inventory reduction support prices, but weak demand restricts upward movement. Consider exiting the 1 - 5 positive spread for rebar and focus on the strategy of going long on the May rebar - iron ore ratio [1]. - **Iron Ore Industry**: Iron ore prices are likely to oscillate. Supply remains at a relatively high level, demand recovery is limited, and inventory is accumulating, but the marginal space for inventory accumulation is narrowing. It is recommended to use short - term range trading for the 05 contract, with the range from 760 - 810 [4]. - **Coke and Coking Coal Industry**: For coke, after the third - round spot price cut, the basis weakens, and the expected rebound is hard to sustain. It is advisable to take profit on long positions of the 2605 contract and switch to short - selling on rallies, and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke. For coking coal, the rebound expectation is overdrawn, so take profit on long positions and switch to short - selling on rallies, also using the same arbitrage strategy [7]. - **Silicon Iron Industry**: Silicon iron supply - demand contradictions need to be alleviated. Although the production cut expectation is priced in, there is insufficient improvement in demand. Prices are expected to fluctuate in the 5500 - 5700 range [9]. - **Silicon Manganese Industry**: Silicon manganese is in a state of self - supply - demand imbalance, but the overall situation is relatively flat. Manganese ore prices support the cost. The price is expected to continue to be weak. Consider short - selling when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost, with short - term trading as the main approach [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices mostly declined, and futures prices also showed mixed trends [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet and plate billet prices decreased slightly, and most steel product profits declined [1]. - **Supply**: Daily average pig iron production decreased slightly, while the production of five major steel products decreased slightly. Rebar and hot - rolled coil production increased [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coil all decreased [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: Building material trading volume increased, but the apparent demand for five major steel products and rebar decreased, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil increased [1]. Iron Ore Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt cost and spot prices of various iron ore varieties increased slightly, while the basis and spreads showed different changes [4]. - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments and port arrivals decreased slightly, but remained at a high level in the same period of history [4]. - **Demand**: Pig iron and crude steel production decreased, while daily average iron ore port clearance increased slightly [4]. - **Inventory**: Iron ore inventory continued to accumulate, mainly Australian ore [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Coke futures prices fluctuated weakly, and the third - round spot price cut was implemented. Coking coal futures prices fluctuated strongly, and the spot auction price was mixed [7]. - **Supply**: Coke production decreased slightly, and coking coal production decreased slightly. The inventory of both increased [7]. - **Demand**: Pig iron production remained stable, and the demand for coke and coking coal was weak [7]. Silicon Iron Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The silicon iron futures price decreased slightly, and the spot prices in some regions increased [9]. - **Cost and Profit**: Production costs decreased, and production profits increased [9]. - **Supply**: Silicon iron production decreased slightly, and the production cut was mainly concentrated in Shaanxi and Gansu [9]. - **Demand**: Steel - making demand was stable, non - steel demand increased slightly, and export orders were fair but with low price acceptance [9]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of silicon iron decreased slightly [9]. Silicon Manganese Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The silicon manganese futures price decreased slightly, and the spot prices remained unchanged [9]. - **Cost and Profit**: Manganese ore prices were stable, and production costs and profits changed slightly [9]. - **Supply**: Silicon manganese production increased slightly, with new production capacity in Inner Mongolia [9]. - **Demand**: Steel - making demand was stable, and steel mills had a strong price - pressing attitude in procurement [9]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of silicon manganese remained at a high level [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that the iron ore 2605 contract will experience wide - range fluctuations, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and weak respectively [1]. - The iron ore futures price is at a high level due to positive commodity sentiment, but the supply - demand pattern is weakening. The overall trend is expected to continue high - level oscillations, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and weak, with an overall view of wide - range oscillations. The core logic is that positive commodity sentiment keeps the ore price at a high level [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Positive commodity sentiment has led to a high - level operation of iron ore futures prices. However, the supply - demand pattern is weakening, with port inventories rising to a high level, steel mill production stabilizing, and terminal ore consumption weakly stable. Steel mill profitability has limited improvement, and the weak demand pattern is difficult to change, although pre - holiday restocking is a relative positive factor [2]. - Both domestic port arrivals and miner shipments have decreased month - on - month but remain at a high level for the year. Overseas ore supply is active, and overall ore supply remains high despite the contraction of domestic ore supply [2]. - Currently, due to the structural contradiction in the spot market and positive commodity sentiment, iron ore prices are at a high level. However, with weakening demand and high - level supply, the fundamental situation is weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. The subsequent trend is expected to continue high - level oscillations, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [2].

Core Viewpoint - Dazhong Mining's stock has experienced significant fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 275.24% and a recent decline of 4.25% on December 29, 2023, indicating volatility in investor sentiment and market conditions [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Dazhong Mining Co., Ltd. is located in Baotou City, Inner Mongolia, and was established on October 29, 1999, with its stock listed on May 10, 2021 [2]. - The company's main business includes the production and sales of iron ore, iron concentrate, pellets, and processed sand and stone, with revenue contributions of 71.07% from iron concentrate, 20.48% from pellets, and smaller percentages from other products [2]. - As of September 30, 2023, the number of shareholders increased to 45,400, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 1.58% to 28,402 shares [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2023, Dazhong Mining reported a revenue of 3.025 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.60%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10.67% to 594 million yuan [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 1.494 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 891 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Market Activity - On December 29, 2023, Dazhong Mining's stock price was 31.76 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 184 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.43%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 48.691 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has appeared on the daily trading leaderboard five times this year, with the most recent instance on November 24, 2023, where it recorded a net purchase of 82.136 million yuan [1].

Steel Industry - The national rebar production increased by 27,100 tons week-on-week to 1,843,900 tons, but decreased by 319,100 tons year-on-year [3][15] - Social inventory of rebar decreased by 188,100 tons week-on-week to 2,941,900 tons, but increased by 159,800 tons year-on-year [3][15] - The demand for rebar showed resilience with a funding availability rate of 59.71% for construction sites, up 0.18 percentage points week-on-week [3][15] - Exports of rebar and steel billets significantly increased, with rebar exports up 44.05% and steel billets up 140.64% year-on-year [3][15] Hot-Rolled Steel - National hot-rolled steel production increased by 16,300 tons week-on-week to 2,935,400 tons, but decreased by 136,000 tons year-on-year [4][16] - Social inventory of hot-rolled steel decreased by 106,000 tons week-on-week to 2,967,000 tons, but increased by 699,500 tons year-on-year [4][16] - Hot-rolled steel exports in November increased by 11.5% month-on-month but decreased by 3.2% year-on-year [4][16] Iron Ore - Global iron ore shipments decreased, with Australia and Brazil both showing declines [6][17] - Iron water production slightly increased by 300 tons week-on-week to 2,265,800 tons [6][17] - Port inventories of imported iron ore increased by 3,944,300 tons week-on-week to 166,199,600 tons [6][17] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal prices remained stable, while coke prices decreased by 50-55 yuan/ton in several regions [7][18] - The production of independent coking enterprises decreased, while steel mills' coke production slightly increased [7][18] - Total coke inventory increased by 121,600 tons, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [7][18] Scrap Steel - The national scrap steel price index increased by 1 yuan/ton to 2,182 yuan/ton [9][20] - Daily average scrap steel arrivals at steel mills increased to 487,200 tons, up 6,800 tons week-on-week [9][20] - Scrap steel demand showed a slight recovery, with daily consumption increasing to 507,000 tons [9][20] Ferroalloys - Manganese silicon production increased by 2.31% week-on-week to 192,600 tons, but inventory levels remain high [11][21] - Silicon iron production decreased by 1.3% week-on-week to 98,500 tons, with a slight decrease in demand [12][22] - Cost pressures are easing, but overall market support remains weak, leading to expectations of continued price fluctuations [11][21][12][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **For the steel sector**: The market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand. Steel mill production is expected to continue to decline slowly due to a significant drop in mill profit margins and the end of the consumption peak. Although coal and coke prices have rebounded recently, providing some cost support, winter storage is still some time away. With enhanced macro - confidence, steel futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile upward trend [2]. - **For the iron ore sector**: Near the end of the year, the market is filled with strong wait - and - see sentiment. Domestic coal mines are reducing production, while Mongolian coal imports are at a high level. As downstream winter storage expectations increase, market sentiment has improved. The iron ore futures price has a relatively large basis for support, and the 05 contract is expected to form a phased bottom [4]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and demand**: This week's data shows that the production of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils has increased, while the total production of the five major steel products has decreased. Overall inventory continues to decline. The apparent demand for threaded rods has decreased, while that of hot - rolled coils has increased, but the overall apparent demand for the five major products has decreased. The market remains in a state of weak supply and demand [2]. - **Price data**: The closing price of the threaded rod futures main contract is 3,118 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous day and 0.03% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures main contract is 3,283 yuan/ton, up 0.09% from the previous day and 0.43% from last week. Spot prices of both have generally declined [2]. - **Operation suggestions**: Hold long positions and conduct mid - term trades [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market situation**: Near the end of the year, the domestic coal market has weak supply and demand. The import of Mongolian coal is high, and downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand. With the strengthening of winter storage expectations, market sentiment has improved [4]. - **Price data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 783 yuan/dry ton, unchanged from the previous day and up 0.38% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract is 104.67 US dollars/dry ton, up 0.60% from the previous day and 0.98% from last week [5]. - **Operation suggestions**: Hold long positions and conduct mid - term trades [4]. 3.3 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the importance of balancing supply and demand and optimizing the structure in the raw materials industry such as steel and petrochemicals during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, and will continue to regulate crude steel production [7]. - According to Mysteel, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.32%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points from last week; the daily average pig iron output is 2.2658 million tons, an increase of 0.03 million tons from last week [7]. - According to Mysteel, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 158.5866 million tons, an increase of 3.4603 million tons from the previous week; the daily average port clearance volume is 3.1506 million tons, an increase of 0.0161 million tons [7]. - According to Gangyin E - commerce, the total urban inventory this week is 7.0622 million tons, a decrease of 394,300 tons (- 5.29%) from last week; the total inventory of construction steel is 3.1163 million tons, a decrease of 277,000 tons (- 8.16%) from last week [7]. - According to Clarkson Research, from January to November this year, South Korea received 10.03 million compensated gross tons (CGT, 223 ships) of new ship orders, accounting for 22% of the global market. Its shipbuilding industry's annual market share is expected to rebound to over 20% [8].