Market Overview - The US stock market has shown positive performance recently, with all three major indices rising over 1%, and the Dow Jones reaching its highest level since early March [3] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index surged by 3.31%, marking its largest single-day gain since May 13, driven by expectations of liquidity easing following signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [3] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 3400-point level on June 24, with a trading volume of 1.41 trillion yuan, indicating a positive market signal [3] - Technical indicators such as RSI rising above 50, narrowing MACD bars, and KDJ golden cross suggest improving market sentiment [3] - However, significant selling pressure exists around the 3400-point mark, with historical failures to break through due to insufficient volume and trapped positions [3] Capital Flow - Northbound capital recorded a net sell of 6.304 billion yuan on June 24, with significant sell-offs in electronics, utilities, and home appliances, while sectors like non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverage saw net inflows [4] - Main capital flows indicate net inflows in banking, industrial metals, and real estate development, while sectors like semiconductors and computer applications experienced net outflows, reflecting a shift in capital between high and low-performing sectors [4] Policy Support - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 406.5 billion yuan on June 24, releasing liquidity into the market [4] - A joint initiative from six departments introduced a 500 billion yuan loan program to support service consumption and the elderly care industry, which is expected to benefit related sectors in the long term [4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the role of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board in supporting technological innovation, potentially boosting confidence in the tech sector [4] Geopolitical Context - High-level trade talks between China and the US have resumed, which may help ease trade tensions [4] - The ceasefire agreement in the Middle East is in effect, but ongoing conflicts warrant attention to geopolitical risks that could impact the market [4] Investment Strategy - A-shares are expected to continue an upward trend on June 25, but attention is needed around the 3400-point resistance level [5] - Long-term investors are advised to focus on sectors supported by policy, such as consumption, technology, and elderly care, which have strong growth potential [5] - Short-term investors should monitor volume changes, with a sustained increase to 1.5 trillion yuan or more indicating potential for further market breakthroughs [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 12.36 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 35%, driven by higher sales prices and increased sales volume of aluminum alloy products, along with a decrease in electricity prices [1]. - The significant growth in profits is attributed to the increase in aluminum prices and a substantial decrease in electricity costs [1]. - The company is accelerating the transfer of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, having shut down a 721,000-ton production line and replacing it with new capacity [2]. - The company is positioned for significant growth through overseas expansion and deep integration with upstream and downstream partners, while also benefiting from a notable undervaluation as a Hong Kong-listed stock [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to be 150.949 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.3% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 21.676 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.1% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 2.33 yuan in 2025 [4]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 6.8 times in 2025, decreasing to 5.9 times by 2027 [4].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strategic and tactical value of investing in the rare earth sector, viewing it as a critical asset in the long-term geopolitical competition between China and the US [2][15]. - It argues that the current market fluctuations in the rare earth and magnetic materials sectors are largely driven by short-term speculative trading rather than long-term fundamentals [8][14]. - The report highlights the unique competitive advantages of China's rare earth refining and separation capabilities, which are difficult for foreign entities to replicate [15][16]. Group 2: Supply Side Analysis - The domestic supply of rare earths is expected to remain stable, with a concentration of production among two major rare earth groups, while illegal mining activities are being strictly controlled [16]. - China's ability to manage both domestic and international rare earth resources is strengthening, which may further enhance the strategic importance of these resources [16] . Group 3: Demand Side Analysis - The demand for high-performance rare earth permanent magnets is anticipated to grow significantly due to emerging industries such as humanoid robots and low-altitude economies [17]. - Recent approvals for export applications have alleviated previous concerns regarding demand for magnetic materials, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment [17]. Group 4: Steel Industry Insights - The steel industry is entering a seasonal downturn, with a notable increase in rebar production and a slight decrease in consumption [18][23]. - Total steel inventory has decreased significantly, both on a week-over-week and year-over-year basis, indicating a tightening supply [25]. - The profitability of long and short process rebar production is diverging, with long process margins showing slight improvement [29][34]. Group 5: New Energy Metals - Lithium production in China saw a substantial year-over-year increase, while hydroxide production experienced a decline [41]. - The production and sales of new energy vehicles in China have surged, reflecting strong demand in the market [45]. - Prices for lithium, nickel, and cobalt have generally declined, indicating a potential softening in the market [51]. Group 6: Industrial Metals - The report notes a continuous decline in electrolytic aluminum inventory, suggesting potential upward pressure on prices [62]. - Global refined copper production has increased, with slight improvements in smelting fees [62].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that geopolitical uncertainties are driving an increase in risk aversion, which supports the rise in precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver [1] - The gold stock ETF (517400) has risen over 1.1%, reflecting the strengthening of precious metals due to heightened risk aversion [1] - The SSH Gold Stock Index (931238), tracked by the gold stock ETF, includes companies involved in gold mining, smelting, and sales, providing a representative performance of the gold industry chain [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate has led to continued fluctuations in industrial metal prices, with strong long-term support for copper prices [1] - In the energy metals sector, cobalt prices are expected to continue rising, while strategic metals like neodymium oxide have seen a price recovery from a low point [1] - The black tungsten concentrate price has reached a historical high, indicating a potential revaluation opportunity for strategic minor metals like antimony and tungsten amid supply chain autonomy trends [1]

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 2025 年 06 月 22 日 美联储按兵不动，金价高位震荡 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报20250616-20250620 本期投资提示： 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 研 联系人 究 / 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× guozy@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数下跌 0.51%，深证成指下跌 1.16%，沪深 300 下跌 0.45%，有色金属（申万）指数下跌 3.57%，跑输沪深 ...

行 有色金属 2025 年 06 月 22 日 业 研 究 有色金属 20250622 周报：刚果（金）钴出口禁令延期，或 提振钴价上行 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 贵金属：美国关税政策反复，黄金长期配置价值不改。近期多项美国 经济数据展现疲软态势，进一步加剧了市场对经济前景的担忧。经济数据 走弱将为美联储未来降息提供依据。根据钢联援引世界黄金协会调查数据， 全球73家央行中有76%预计未来五年将持续增持黄金以分散对美元资产的 依赖，凸显地缘因素及美元信用下滑背景下央行购金意愿。短期而言，美 "对等关税"的潜在风险及不确定性引发市场避险情绪支撑金价，整体呈 现易涨难跌格局；中长期而言，全球关税政策和地缘政治的不确定性背景 下，避险和滞涨交易仍是黄金交易的核心，长期配置价值不改。个股：黄 金建议关注中金黄金、山东黄金、赤峰黄金，低估弹性关注株冶集团，其 他关注湖南黄金及招金矿业；白银建议关注兴业银锡、盛达资源。 分析师： 王保庆(S0210522090001) WBQ3918@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、地缘危机与美联储降息预期共振，黄金走强— —2025.06.14 2、美对华上调钢铁和铝关 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the high dividend sector of the Hong Kong stock market is gaining attention for its defensive attributes amid ongoing inflation concerns, with the Hong Kong Dividend ETF (159331) rising over 1% [1] - Huachuang Securities highlights that companies in the high dividend sector possess strong free cash flow generation capabilities, ensuring dividend sustainability and shareholder returns, even in a low-interest-rate environment [1] - Traditional industries such as banking, ports, and highways are emphasized for their stable earnings and dividends, making them attractive for investment in the current market conditions [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (code: 159331) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Index (code: 930914), which includes 30 highly liquid, consistently dividend-paying stocks with high dividend yields [2] - The index focuses on high dividend investment strategies and aims to reflect the overall performance of high dividend securities in the Hong Kong market [2] - Investors without stock accounts are advised to consider related funds such as the Cathay CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Investment ETF Initiated Link A (022274) and Link C (022275) [2]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 有色金属 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 相关研究 1.《盛达资源：金银上行，扩产在即》， 2025.4.30 2.《锡业股份：原料自给上行，行业 持续景气》，2025.4.30 3.《有色金属周报：黄金剧震，持续 看好》，2025.4.27 4.《天山铝业：利润高企，成长性明 显》，2025.4.20 5.《有色金属周报：特朗普连续喊话 美 联 储 ， 关 注 贵 金 属 表 现 》 ， 2025.4.20 有色金属周报：地缘冲突升级， 坚守贵金属投资 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 有色金属 2025 年 06 月 16 日 贵金属：金 ...

Group 1 - The overall economic operation in 2024 was stable, with a 5.8% increase in industrial added value for large-scale enterprises, and a 8.9% growth in the non-ferrous metal industry [15][16] - The non-ferrous metal industry saw a profit increase of 24.5% in the smelting and rolling sector and 47.8% in the mining sector in the first four months of 2025 [15] - The non-ferrous metal industry index rose by 16.41% as of June 13, 2025, outperforming other sectors [16] Group 2 - Gold prices are expected to rise due to multiple factors including weakened dollar credit, increased central bank purchases, and ongoing geopolitical risks [20][34] - In 2024, global central banks purchased 1,045 tons of gold, accounting for 21% of total demand, with significant purchases from emerging market countries [23] - The demand for gold in investment increased by 25% in 2024, reaching 1,180 tons, with bar investment demand growing significantly [23][30] Group 3 - The strategic metals sector, including rare earths and tungsten, is crucial for national defense, economic development, and technological advancement, with China leading in production and reserves [50][62] - The supply of rare earths is expected to tighten due to export controls and limited quota increases, while demand from new energy vehicles and robotics continues to grow [50][67] - The tungsten market is projected to remain strong due to increasing demand from photovoltaic and nuclear fusion sectors, despite tightening supply [50][67] Group 4 - The aluminum industry faces rigid supply constraints with a production cap of 45 million tons, while demand is expected to grow in the new energy sector [4][18] - The demand for aluminum in the automotive and new energy sectors is on the rise, with significant increases in production for battery foils and structural components [4][18] - The copper market is experiencing a shift in demand dynamics, with traditional demand weakening while new energy applications drive growth [5][8]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨金属、非金属与采矿 [Table_Title] 产业与宏观共振，资源品全面开花 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本周是关键节点，美元下破"箱体"+地缘冲突升级共振，金价重回上升通道，权益恢复弹性， 重视突破新高前的配置际遇。本周核心两点触发黄金重回上升通道：1）美元指数破过去 2 年 震荡箱体进一步走弱。对应周三公布 5 月 CPI 低预期，联储担忧滞胀并未到来，降息概率回 升。美国经济在"滞胀"和"衰退"或走向后者。传统框架/衰退路径是今年驱动金价进一步新 高的重要因子。我们依旧维持金价延续上涨至第二轮第一次降息落地；2）以伊地缘冲突再起， 催生避险情绪进一步助力金价向上弹性；同时我们欣喜看到黄金股摆脱过去 1 个月对金价弱化 的弹性，在周五出现显著修复。我们认为第二波贵金属股行情或启动。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUT918 王鹤涛 肖勇 叶如祯 王筱茜 肖百桓 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S04905190800 ...