Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - International: The good rate of US soybeans meets expectations, but hot weather is coming. The US and China extended the policy of waiving the 24% tariff for 90 days, causing the CBOT soybean price to give back some previous gains. The MPOB monthly report shows that the inventory accumulation of Malaysian palm oil at the end of July was less than expected, and the export of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 10 was strong. Indonesia reaffirmed the implementation of the B50 plan in 2026, leading to the continuous rise of Malaysian palm oil futures [4]. - Domestic: Soybean oil inventory continued to rise, with increased exports and the continuation of Sino - US trade risk premium supporting the soybean oil price. Palm oil inventory increased slightly, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its futures price mainly followed the cost of the external market. For rapeseed oil, the domestic inventory remained stable last week but the downward trend persisted. The Ministry of Commerce determined that Canadian rapeseed was dumped and took temporary anti - dumping measures, causing the far - month rapeseed oil to break through the previous trading range, and policy risks need to be watched in the future [4]. 3) Summary according to relevant catalogs Macro and Industry News - The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the additional tariff measures on imported goods originating from the US, suspending the implementation of the 24% additional tariff rate on the US for 90 days and retaining the 10% rate from August 12, 2025, 12:01 [2]. - As of August 8, soybean oil inventory was 1.15 million tons, up 20,000 tons week - on - week and 40,000 tons year - on - year; rapeseed oil inventory was 660,000 tons, basically flat week - on - week and up 170,000 tons year - on - year; palm oil inventory was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons week - on - week and down 20,000 tons year - on - year [2]. - As of the week ending August 10, the good rate of US soybeans was 68%, in line with market expectations, down from 69% the previous week and the same as the same period last year [2]. - The US Midwest will return to hot weather in the coming week, and most parts of the country are expected to have precipitation, mainly concentrated in the southeast [2]. - On August 12, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce issued preliminary rulings on two cases, deciding to implement temporary anti - dumping measures. The dumping margin of Canadian companies in the rapeseed case was 75.8%, and that in the halogenated butyl rubber case was 26.2% - 40.5% [3]. Futures and Spot Market Data - Futures: On August 12, DCE soybean oil futures rose 0.43%, DCE palm oil futures rose 1.56%, and CZCE rapeseed oil futures rose 2.23%. On August 11, CBOT soybean futures rose 2.41%, CBOT soybean oil futures rose 1.11%, and MDE palm oil futures rose 3.03% [1]. - Spot: On August 12, the price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang rose 0.58%, palm oil in Zhangjiagang rose 2.49%, and rapeseed oil in Nantong rose 1.76% [1]. - Basis: On August 12, the soybean oil basis rose 14 yuan/ton, the palm oil basis rose 86 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil basis decreased 44 yuan/ton [1]. - Registered Contracts: On August 12, the number of registered contracts for DCE soybean oil, DCE palm oil, and CZCE rapeseed oil remained unchanged [1]. - Pressing Profit: On August 12, the pressing profit of imported soybeans increased 5.7 yuan/ton, that of imported rapeseed remained unchanged, and that of imported palm oil increased 58.6 yuan/ton [1].

Report Overview - **Industry**: Oil and fat [1] - **Date**: August 12, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided 2. Core View - The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July reached a two - year high of 2.11 million tons, but the inventory build - up was less than expected, making the report bullish. Palm oil prices rose strongly in the afternoon, with the main contract P2601 hitting a new high for the year. Rapeseed oil has sufficient near - term supply, but fewer far - month purchases support the futures price. Its trend lacks a clear driver and follows the market. Due to the abundant supply of Brazilian soybeans, factories will maintain high operating rates, and soybean oil inventory may increase, dragging down soybean oil prices. However, the long - term outlook is positive due to biodiesel policies in the US and Brazil, a possible decrease in soybean imports in the fourth quarter, and a recovery in domestic demand. China's three major oils are unlikely to see a significant short - term decline, and it is advisable to hold far - month basis contracts [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - P2509: The previous settlement price was 9012, the opening price was 8974, the highest price was 9236, the lowest price was 8912, the closing price was 8218, with a gain of 206 (2.29%). The trading volume was 299,988, and the position decreased by 5,290. - P2601: The previous settlement price was 9026, the opening price was 9000, the highest price was 9246, the lowest price was 8944, the closing price was 9238, with a gain of 212 (2.35%). The trading volume was 372,378, and the position increased by 52,216. - Y2509: The previous settlement price was 8408, the opening price was 8384, the highest price was 8470, the lowest price was 8352, the closing price was 8456, with a gain of 48 (0.57%). The trading volume was 164,012, and the position decreased by 29,250. - Y2601: The previous settlement price was 8396, the opening price was 8376, the highest price was 8460, the lowest price was 8334, the closing price was 8440, with a gain of 44 (0.52%). The trading volume was 452,116, and the position increased by 20,826. - OI2509: The previous settlement price was 9560, the opening price was 9552, the highest price was 9612, the lowest price was 9512, the closing price was 9588, with a gain of 28 (0.29%). The trading volume was 194,113, and the position decreased by 14,440. - OI2601: The previous settlement price was 9543, the opening price was 9544, the highest price was 9605, the lowest price was 9506, the closing price was 9593, with a gain of 50 (0.52%). The trading volume was 142,492, and the position increased by 22,198 [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Bullish on the three major oils in the short - term, hold far - month basis contracts [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Malaysia's July Palm Oil Data (MPOB)**: - Production was 1.8124 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons (7.09%) compared to June. - Imports were 61,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons (12.82%) compared to June. - Exports were 1.3091 million tons, an increase of 48,100 tons (3.82%) compared to June. - End - of - month inventory was 2.1133 million tons, an increase of 81,700 tons (4.02%) compared to June. - **Malaysia's August 1 - 10 Palm Oil Exports (AmSpec)**: Exports were 453,230 tons, a 23.7% increase compared to the same period in July [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts including the spot price of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis change, soybean oil basis change, rapeseed oil basis change, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar - Chinese yuan exchange rate, with data sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][19][26]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from Yuanda Holdings regarding the planned share reduction by Vice Chairman Xu Qiang raises concerns about the company's financial health and ongoing performance issues, particularly in light of its recent losses and the ambiguous reasoning behind the share sale [1][5][6]. Group 1: Share Reduction Details - Xu Qiang, Vice Chairman and Vice President of Yuanda Holdings, plans to reduce his holdings by 800,000 shares, representing approximately 0.1579% of the company's total share capital [1][4]. - The reduction is attributed to "personal funding certainty needs," with the shares coming from non-public offerings and equity distribution [1][5]. - If calculated at the closing price of 7.19 yuan per share on August 11, the total cashing out from this reduction could amount to approximately 5.752 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Yuanda Holdings has faced continuous financial struggles, reporting net losses for two consecutive years, with a net profit loss of 302 million yuan in 2024, although this was an improvement from the previous year's loss of 377 million yuan [5][6]. - The company's revenue for 2024 was reported at 88.074 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 2.1% year-on-year [5]. - The company has also reported a non-recurring net profit loss of 555 million yuan, indicating ongoing financial difficulties [5]. Group 3: Regulatory Concerns - The accuracy of Yuanda Holdings' financial data has been questioned, leading to a warning from the Jiangsu Securities Regulatory Bureau due to issues with goodwill impairment testing [6]. - The company has projected a net profit of 23 million to 34 million yuan for the first half of 2025, aiming to reverse previous losses, but still anticipates a non-recurring net profit loss of 105 million to 140 million yuan [6][7]. - The company has made adjustments to its business segments, shedding some loss-making operations, but faces uncertainty in achieving profitability amid global economic slowdowns and commodity price fluctuations [7].

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: "Guofu Palm Oil Research Weekly Report: MPOB Report Imminent, Palm Oil Prices Fluctuating" [1] - Release date: August 11, 2025 [1] Group 2: Report Structure - Market review including BMD Malaysian palm oil and DCE palm oil [4] - Palm oil producing area weather [4] - International supply and demand including 7 - 8 month prediction of Malaysian palm oil and other important information [4] - Domestic supply and demand including import profit, palm oil transactions, and palm oil inventory [4] - Domestic and international palm oil futures and spot prices, spreads including basis, monthly spreads, variety spreads, palm oil warehouse - receipt quantity and futures positions, and FOB quotes [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in industrial products, highlighting the recent changes in CPI and PPI, and the impact of supply chain issues on key commodities like lithium carbonate and rubber [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline, while the core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of growth [1][5]. - The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to the previous month [1][5]. Group 2: Key Commodities Lithium Carbonate - Supply disruptions due to mining permit delays and temporary shutdowns at major mines are expected to cause significant volatility in lithium carbonate prices [2][19]. - Chile's lithium salt exports are projected to reach 28,800 tons LCE by July 2025, a 40% increase month-on-month and a 22% increase year-on-year, with lithium carbonate exports accounting for 73% of this total [2][19]. - Social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased for the first time since late May, but still stands at approximately 142,000 tons [2][19]. Rubber - Improved weather conditions in production areas have put downward pressure on raw rubber prices, with demand remaining weak due to the off-season for terminal consumption [2][14]. - The market is closely monitoring the progress of US-China trade negotiations, as this could impact rubber prices [2][14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke markets are experiencing a stable trading environment, with minor fluctuations in trading volumes and prices [3][20]. - The supply of coking coal has decreased slightly, while iron water production remains stable, indicating limited fundamental contradictions in the market [3][20]. Group 3: Industry News - The top 100 real estate companies in China have invested a total of 578.3 billion yuan in land acquisition from January to July, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [6]. - The article suggests that the investment confidence among these companies has been effectively restored, with ongoing government support for real estate policies [6]. Group 4: External Market Performance - The article provides a summary of external market performance, including the S&P 500 and other indices, indicating a mixed performance in global markets [8]. - The dollar index showed a slight increase, while oil prices experienced a minor decline, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and market adjustments [8][11]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - The article notes that soybean meal prices are under pressure due to concerns over supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations [21]. Oilseeds - Oilseed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with palm oil facing limited pressure due to low inventory levels in Indonesia, despite a recovery in production [22]. Group 6: Shipping Index - The article highlights the recent performance of the European shipping index, which has shown a slight increase, but overall rates are expected to decline as the market adjusts to seasonal trends [23].

Report Overview - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Date: August 8, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Intraday, soybean oil became the strongest variety, and the three major oils took turns to rise. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will announce July's supply - demand data on August 11. July's palm oil production may be better than expected, but exports are still very weak, meaning the palm oil inventory at the end of July may exceed 2.1 million tons. It's necessary to focus on whether palm oil can effectively stand above the 9,000 mark recently. Rapeseed oil has sufficient near - term supply, but fewer far - month purchases support the futures price. Policy interference is significant, and the trend lacks an obvious driver. Due to the current ample supply of Brazilian soybeans, factories will maintain a high operating rate, and factory soybean oil inventory may still increase, dragging down the rise of soybean oil. However, it is optimistic in the long - term because of the biodiesel policies in the US and Brazil, the possible decrease in soybean imports in the fourth quarter, and the recovery of domestic demand. The room for a significant decline in the spot basis of the three major domestic oils in the later period is limited, and it is advisable to appropriately buy the far - month basis [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions 3.1.1. Market Review | Futures Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P2509 | 8980 | 60000 | 5000 | 8920 | 8950 | - 30 | - 0.33% | | 445128 | - 27119 | | P2601 | 8986 | 9016 | 9056 | 8932 | 8966 | - 20 | - 0.22% | 211935 | 245848 | 7141 | | Y2509 | 8360 | 8420 | 8486 | 8366 | 8406 | - 46 | 0.55% | 388658 | 408811 | - 49208 | | Y2601 | 8334 | 8396 | 8466 | 8340 | 8378 | 44 | 0.53% | 403098 | 595690 | 44018 | | OI2509 | 9576 | 9575 | 9672 | 9458 | 9496 | - 80 | - 0.84% | 343152 | 155705 | - 25362 | | OI2601 | 9524 | 9530 | 9630 | 9452 | 9490 | - 34 | - 0.36% | 158654 | 162192 | 9619 | Domestic spot basis prices are also provided, such as Dongguan's third - grade rapeseed oil in August is OI2509 + 80, etc. [7] 3.1.2. Operation Suggestions - Appropriate to buy far - month basis as the later decline space of domestic three major oils' spot basis is limited [8] 3.2. Industry News 3.2.1. Palm Oil News - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) said that the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia in July 2025 was 1.84 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.01%. The production in the Malaysian Peninsula increased by 17.18% month - on - month, while the production in Sabah decreased by 3.13% month - on - month, and the production in Sarawak decreased by 0.69% month - on - month. The production in East Malaysia decreased by 2.58% month - on - month. - The shipping survey agency SGS announced that Malaysia's palm oil exports in July were 896,362 tons, a 25.0% decrease from June's 1.195265 million tons. Exports to China were 75,000 tons, a significant drop from June's 168,000 tons. - Survey data showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July increased significantly and reached a 19 - month high. Reuters estimated production at 1.828 million tons, exports at 1.3 million tons, and inventory at 2.25 million tons; Bloomberg estimated production at 1.83 million tons, exports at 1.3 million tons, and inventory at 2.23 million tons [9] 3.2.2. Brazilian Soybean News - The Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Trade (SECEX) data showed that Brazil's soybean exports in July were 12.26 million tons, a decrease of 1.16 million tons from June's 13.42 million tons. The export value in July was 502.197 million US dollars, a decrease of 33.214 million US dollars from June's 535.411 million US dollars. The average export price in July was 409.71 US dollars per ton, an increase of 10.75 US dollars per ton from June's 398.96 US dollars per ton. From January to July 2025, Brazil's cumulative soybean exports were 77.207 million tons, a decrease of 1.944 million tons from the same period last year. The cumulative export value from January to July 2025 was 3.0430808 billion US dollars, a decrease of 390.4235 million US dollars from the same period last year. The average export price from January to July 2025 was 394.15 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 39.64 US dollars per ton from the same period last year [10] 3.3. Data Overview - A series of charts are provided, including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, and the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, as well as some price spreads and exchange rate charts [13][14][15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each variety: - **Buy Suggestions**: Index futures (sell far - month contracts), Treasury bonds (buy on dips), Precious metals (low - buying for silver, hold gold long - positions), Iron ore (buy on dips), Coking coal (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Coke (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Copper (hold), Aluminum (range - trading), Zinc (range - trading), Nickel (range - trading), Urea (buy on dips, quick profit - taking), PTA (range - trading, TA1 - 5 reverse spread, expand processing margin), PP (range - trading, stop - loss for previous short - positions), Maize (long - position for 01 contract), Industrial silicon (hold call options), Polysilicon (hold call options) [2] - **Sell Suggestions**: Gold (sell put options below 760 yuan), Steel (sell on rallies), Container shipping index (sell on rallies), Alumina (range - trading), Crude oil (wait for geopolitical clarity), Caustic soda (hold short - positions), PVC (stop - loss for short - positions), Pure benzene (observe or short - term long), Styrene (range - trading), Synthetic rubber (observe), LLDPE (short - term long), Cotton (reduce near - month short - positions, hold 01 short - positions), Eggs (long - term short), Apples (observe around 7800), Glass (hold short - positions), Carbonate lithium (observe cautiously) [2] 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: The second round of China - US trade talks extended tariff exemption clauses, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, causing short - term market expectation differences. The policy negatives were exhausted in early August, and the capital market became looser [2]. - **Market Trends**: Index futures continued to rise, TMT regained popularity; Treasury bonds were expected to oscillate upward; Precious metals' upward trend slowed down; The container shipping index was expected to be weak; Steel and iron ore prices fluctuated; Non - ferrous metals were supported by fundamentals; Energy and chemical products showed different trends; Agricultural products were affected by factors such as production expectations and inventory; Special and new energy products had their own characteristics in price movements [2]. 3. Summary by Variety **Financial** - **Index Futures**: Continued to rise, with TMT heating up again. Recommended selling far - month contracts and shorting MO put options with strike prices of 6300 - 6400, with a mild bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With policy negatives exhausted and loose funds, they were expected to oscillate upward. Suggested buying on dips and paying attention to July economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend slowed down, and silver was affected by market sentiment. Gold long - positions were held above 3300 dollars (770 yuan), and silver was bought at low levels around 36 - 37 dollars (8700 - 9000 yuan) [2]. **Industrial** - **Container Shipping Index (EC)**: Expected to be weakly oscillating, with a strategy of selling on rallies [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel turned to oscillation, and iron ore followed steel price fluctuations. Suggested buying on dips for iron ore and using a long - coking coal and short - iron ore strategy [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was supported by fundamentals, and the price range was 77000 - 79000; Aluminum was oscillating, and the range was 20000 - 21000; Zinc was oscillating in a narrow range, and the range was 22000 - 23000; Nickel was oscillating strongly, and the range was 118000 - 126000 [2]. **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Weakly oscillating, with a strategy of waiting for geopolitical clarity. Support levels were [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [490, 500] for SC [2]. - **Urea**: There was a game between export drive and weak domestic consumption. The short - term strategy was to buy on dips and take quick profits, and exit long - positions if the price did not break through 1770 - 1780 [2]. - **PTA**: With low processing fees and limited cost support, it was expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800. TA1 - 5 was treated with a reverse spread, and the processing margin was expanded at a low level (around 250) [2]. **Agricultural** - **Soybean Meal and Maize**: Maize was oscillating weakly, and the 01 contract of soybean meal was held long due to import concerns [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The price pulled back due to expected inventory increases. Observed whether P09 could stand firm at 9000 [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market was weak. Near - month short - positions were reduced, and 01 short - positions were held [2]. **Special and New Energy** - **Glass**: The spot sales weakened, and the contract was held short [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Both were oscillating upward, and call options were held [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price was pulled up by news, but there were uncertainties in the mining end. It was mainly observed cautiously [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats Industry - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure from increased production, and Dalian palm oil futures are expected to consolidate around 9,000 yuan. - Crude oil pressure and bearish CBOT soybeans affect vegetable oil prices. Domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to decrease in the second half of the month due to improved demand [1]. Meal Industry - US soybeans are expected to find strong support around 970 - 980 cents, and the downside space for domestic soybean meal is limited. Long positions in the 2601 contract can be held, but the strength of oils may limit the rise of meal [3]. Pig Industry - Spot pig prices are slightly down but may bottom - out. The short - term outlook is not optimistic, and the 09 contract faces pressure. The 01 contract is affected by policies, and caution is needed regarding hedging funds [6]. Corn Industry - The corn market is weak in the short - term, with prices fluctuating. New - season corn may face supply pressure, and the market valuation may decline [8]. Sugar Industry - International raw sugar prices are expected to have difficulty breaking previous lows but are generally bearish. The domestic sugar market has weak demand, and a bearish trend is expected [13]. Cotton Industry - The supply - side pressure of cotton has marginally eased, but the downstream industry is still weak. Consider reducing positions in the 09 contract and holding short positions in far - month contracts [14]. Egg Industry - Egg supply is expected to increase in August, while demand will enter the peak season. However, due to large supply pressure, a bearish trading strategy is recommended [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8,580 yuan, up 1.18%. The Y2509 futures price is 8,406 yuan, up 0.74%. The basis is 136 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong is 8,900 yuan, down 0.56%. The P2509 futures price is 9,064 yuan, down 1.04%. The basis is - 164 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 9,700 yuan, up 0.21%. The O1509 futures price is 9,562 yuan, down 0.55%. The basis is 138 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [1]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2,920 yuan, down 0.68%. The M2509 futures price is 3,026 yuan, up 0.10%. The basis is - 106 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2,690 yuan, up 1.89%. The RM2509 futures price is 2,745 yuan, up 0.77%. The basis is - 55 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [3]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price in Harbin is 3,960 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the main soybean contract is 4,118 yuan, up 0.05%. The basis is - 158 yuan, and the inventory is down 0.42% [3]. Pig Industry - Spot prices in various regions have slightly declined. The sample point slaughter volume decreased by 0.51%, the white - strip price decreased by 0.83%, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 29.46% [6]. Corn Industry - The corn 2509 futures price is 2,259 yuan, up 0.44%. The basis is 61 yuan, down 14.08%. The 9 - 1 spread is 10 yuan, up 18.18% [8]. - The corn starch 2509 futures price is 2,662 yuan, up 0.30%. The basis is 48 yuan, down 14.29% [8]. Sugar Industry - The sugar 2601 futures price is 5,628 yuan, down 0.18%. The ICE raw sugar主力 is 16.04 cents/pound, down 0.31%. The basis in Nanning is 317 yuan, down 4.80% [13]. - National sugar production increased by 12.03%, sales increased by 23.07%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 9.56% [13]. Cotton Industry - The cotton 2509 futures price is 13,690 yuan, up 0.26%. The ICE US cotton主力 is 66.92 cents/pound, down 0.36%. The basis of 3128B - 01 contract is 1,393 yuan, down 2.31% [14]. - Commercial inventory decreased by 10.2%, industrial inventory decreased by 2.3%, and imports decreased by 25% [14]. Egg Industry - The egg 09 contract is 3,378 yuan/500KG, up 1.44%. The egg 10 contract is 3,285 yuan/500KG, up 1.01%. The basis is - 371 yuan/500KG, down 24.51% [17]. - The estimated laying - hen inventory in August is 1.363 billion, a 0.52% increase [17].

行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 8 月 7 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1：行情回顾 | 合药 | 前结算价 : | 开 蓝价 : | 成高价 | 最低价 : | 收盘价 :涨跌: | | 张跌幅 | 成交量 : | | 持企業 持企量要化 | | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, leading to an increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July is to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Changes - **Equity Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4029.6, down 0.68% daily, 2.10% weekly, 0.68% monthly, up 7.77% quarterly, and 2.77% year - to - date. The Shanghai 50 futures and the CSI 500 futures also showed different degrees of decline, while the CSI 1000 futures rose 0.07% daily [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had different price changes, with the 10 - year treasury bond futures down 0.05% daily [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, 1.04% weekly. The US dollar intermediate price had a 2 - pip daily increase [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.71, up 0.2 bp daily. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.23, down 14 bp daily [3]. - **Commodities**: In the domestic commodity market, coal rose 1.93% daily, while industrial silicon fell 2.97% daily. In the overseas commodity market, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 67.26, down 3.03% daily [3]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, and hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing market concerns about the US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data in August, the Jackson Hole meeting, and subsequent non - farm payrolls [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: After the Politburo meeting in July, the overall policy tone focuses on using existing policies more effectively, with relatively few incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the progress of economic negotiations between the US and other economies [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Domestic Assets**: There are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Overseas Assets**: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3.4 Sector and Variety Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options will be volatile, and treasury bond futures will also be in a volatile state [6]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [6]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of game between peak - season expectations and price - rise implementation, and is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile, with their fundamentals and market sentiments changing [6]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply disturbances and policy expectations [6]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil supply is increasing, and domestic chemical products are expected to benefit from stable - growth expectations. Most varieties are expected to be volatile, while asphalt and high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to decline [8]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [8].