Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and silver, providing insights on their supply, demand, price trends, and investment strategies [1]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Emotions**: The market has digested the supply loss of Grasberg copper mine, with overseas banks raising long - term copper price expectations. The US government shutdown and Sino - US trade issues add to market uncertainty [1]. - **Domestic Supply**: Imported copper concentrate TC is at $80. September domestic copper output decreased by 50,600 tons month - on - month, and is expected to drop by 38,500 tons in October. September copper imports reached 485,000 tons, and consumption is under pressure from high prices [1]. - **Overseas**: ICSC lowered the 2025 copper concentrate supply growth from 2.86% to 1.4% (supply increment from nearly 500,000 tons to 300,000 tons) and next year's growth from 2.55% to 2.3% (supply increment from 800,000 - ton level to 500,000 - ton level). 2025 demand growth is expected at 3.3%, and 2026 at 2.1% [1]. - **Trend**: The copper price is likely to enter a high - level oscillation state after reaching near - record positions last week [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Supply**: Domestic alumina operating capacity is at a historical high of 80 million tons, with a significant surplus. Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable at around 44 million tons [1]. - **Demand**: The开工 rate of domestic aluminum processing leading enterprises decreased by 6.5% to 62.5%. September aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: During the National Day, aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 57,000 tons to 649,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory increased by 24,000 tons to 139,000 tons [1]. - **Trend**: The aluminum market is oscillating to test previous highs, and the upside space is cautiously viewed [1]. Zinc - **Spot and Futures**: LME inventory is less than 38,000 tons, with a high 0 - 3 months premium. Domestic smelters prefer domestic ore procurement, and import ore TC has rebounded [1]. - **Demand**: Affected by multiple factors, domestic demand is not strong, and social inventory has reached a five - year high of 163,100 tons [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [1]. Lead - **Market**: The external market's rising lead price was reversed by policy changes and domestic factory resumptions. LME lead inventory is at a high level of 237,000 tons [1]. - **Supply**: Both primary and secondary lead production are expected to increase in October. The supply of lead concentrate is still tight [1]. - **Demand**: Battery consumption is good, but the sustainability of consumption is in doubt [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,300 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Spot and Supply**: There are premiums for different forms of nickel. Nickel and nickel - iron inventories have increased, and stainless - steel inventory has decreased [1]. - **Trend**: The nickel price is weakly operating, with a downward - moving center of gravity [1]. Tin - **Supply**: There is no new news on tin ore resupply, and domestic production is expected to increase in October [1]. - **Demand**: High tin prices affect downstream purchases, and the export of related products has slowed [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai tin has significant two - way price movements. Short positions can be held near 290,000 yuan or sell put options with an execution price of 300,000 yuan for the 25LL contract [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures**: The lithium carbonate futures market is oscillating with light trading [1]. - **Spot**: The price is reported at 23,100 yuan, and the total output has growth potential [1]. - **Demand**: The demand for lithium iron phosphate materials is good, with expected growth in October [1]. - **Inventory**: The total market inventory has decreased, and downstream inventory is at a relatively high level [1]. - **Trend**: The lithium price is supported at a low level, but there is downward pressure [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Xinjiang enterprises plan to increase production in October, and southwest production areas may cut production in November [1]. - **Demand**: The production of polysilicon in October is less than expected, and the operating load of organic silicon enterprises remains stable [1]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory has increased by 200 tons to 545,000 tons [1]. - **Trend**: There is a high risk of inventory accumulation in October, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The price has recovered and stabilized between 50,100 - 55,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply contraction is limited in October, and silicon wafer production cuts are frequent in Q4. Demand has decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory has increased by 1.4 million tons to 24 million tons [1]. - **Trend**: The effectiveness of the 40,000 - yuan/ton support level is being tested, and industry meeting news should be followed [1]. Silver - **Strategy**: Hold long positions in the silver 2512 contract and raise the target price to 10,500 - 12,000, with a stop - loss at 9,100 [1].

Group 1 - International gold prices have been on a rapid upward trend since late August, with spot gold reaching a new high of $4089.85 per ounce on October 13, marking a year-to-date increase of over 55% [1] - The World Gold Council states that this year has seen the largest price increase since 1979, with historical data showing an average annual increase of approximately 10.21% since 2000 [1] - Multiple factors are driving the rise in gold prices, including geopolitical risks, rising safe-haven demand, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - Huaxi Securities anticipates further upside potential for gold stocks due to increasing global economic uncertainty and high fiscal deficits in multiple countries [2] - The rare earth and copper sectors are also expected to benefit from favorable catalysts, such as price increases announced by major rare earth companies and supply constraints in the copper market due to an accident at a major mine [2] - The non-ferrous metals industry is maintaining a high level of prosperity, with precious metals influenced by Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical tensions, while industrial metals like copper and aluminum are experiencing price increases due to supply constraints [2] Group 3 - The non-ferrous metal sector is seeing significant investment interest, with the non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) experiencing a strong performance and attracting substantial capital inflows [5] - The ETF has seen a net subscription of 3.6 million units recently, with a total capital inflow of 297 million yuan over the past four days, reaching a historical high in total assets [5] - Different non-ferrous metals are experiencing varied levels of demand and price movements, suggesting a diversified investment approach may be beneficial [6]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Electric Alloy has experienced significant fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 87.09%, but a recent decline of 1.27% over the past five trading days [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of October 14, Electric Alloy's stock price was 17.89 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 7.74 billion CNY [1] - The stock has seen a trading volume of 2.29 billion CNY, with a turnover rate of 3.77% [1] - The stock has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" six times this year, with the most recent appearance on September 12, where it recorded a net purchase of 112 million CNY [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Electric Alloy achieved a revenue of 1.43 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.31% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period was 82.33 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23.31% [2] - Cumulatively, the company has distributed 451 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 186 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3] Group 3: Business Overview - Electric Alloy, established on June 12, 1985, and listed on September 7, 2017, is located in Jiangyin City, Jiangsu Province [1] - The company's main business involves the research, production, and sales of copper and copper alloy products, with revenue composition as follows: 66.21% from copper busbar products, 29.90% from electrified railway contact network products, 3.29% from high-voltage connectors for new energy vehicles, and 0.60% from other sources [1]

Group 1 - The report highlights the resurgence of tariffs between China and the U.S., suggesting an increased allocation towards gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2] - Precious metals continue to show strength, with silver spot prices reflecting insufficient upward momentum, indicating potential risks of a pullback amid trade disputes [1][2] - The long-term trend of de-dollarization is expected to persist, coupled with inflows into ETFs due to short-term interest rate cuts, supporting a positive outlook for the precious metals sector [1][2] Group 2 - Copper prices are anticipated to rise due to supply disruptions, with recent production guidance cuts from Freeport and Teck Resources enhancing the likelihood of a reversal in the global electrolytic copper balance by 2026 [2] - The aluminum market is also waiting for a buying opportunity following recent price increases, with inventory levels showing expected increases without exceeding forecasts [2] - Cobalt prices have surged significantly, with expectations for continued price increases in 2026-2027 due to a projected supply-demand gap of 20,000 to 30,000 tons next year [3][4] Group 3 - Recent export controls on rare earth materials by Chinese authorities are expected to exacerbate supply-demand imbalances, potentially leading to a new upward trend in rare earth prices [4] - The report suggests monitoring specific companies such as Northern Rare Earth, Baotou Steel, and Huayou Cobalt, among others, for investment opportunities in the precious metals and rare earth sectors [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Jingyi Co., Ltd. experienced a stock price decline of 2.06% on October 14, with a current price of 13.78 CNY per share and a total market capitalization of 3.453 billion CNY [1] - The company has seen a significant stock price increase of 115.51% year-to-date, with a 2.76% rise over the last five trading days and a 29.63% increase over the last 20 days [1] - The net outflow of main funds was 15.9373 million CNY, with large orders showing a buy of 33.6214 million CNY and a sell of 41.8753 million CNY [1] Group 2 - Jingyi Co., Ltd. is located in Shunde District, Foshan City, Guangdong Province, and was established on July 28, 1999, with its listing date on September 29, 2009 [2] - The main business of the company includes the production and sales of metal processing equipment, precision copper tubes, and deep processing products, with copper tube processing products accounting for 78.76% of revenue [2] - As of June 30, the number of shareholders increased by 7.23% to 14,500, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 6.74% to 17,211 shares [2] Group 3 - Since its A-share listing, Jingyi Co., Ltd. has distributed a total of 139 million CNY in dividends, with 21.553 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3]

截至9月30日，金田股份股东户数17.89万，较上期减少1.97%；人均流通股9661股，较上期增加2.01%。 2025年1月-6月，金田股份实现营业收入592.94亿元，同比增长2.46%；归母净利润3.73亿元，同比增长 203.86%。 分红方面，金田股份A股上市后累计派现9.30亿元。近三年，累计派现4.65亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年6月30日，金田股份十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第四大流 通股东，持股3173.57万股，相比上期增加2086.55万股。 10月14日，金田股份盘中下跌2.14%，截至10:01，报12.82元/股，成交6.27亿元，换手率2.78%，总市值 221.61亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出2965.39万元，特大单买入3289.12万元，占比5.25%，卖出5701.77万 元，占比9.09%；大单买入9831.47万元，占比15.68%，卖出1.04亿元，占比16.56%。 今年以来金田股份已经6次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为8月22日，当日龙虎榜净买入-2568.27万 元；买入总计2.30亿元 ，占总成交额比6.56%；卖出总计2.5 ...

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 14 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 宏观金融研究团队 021-60635739 有色金属研究团队 021-60635734 黑色金属研究团队 021-60635736 石油化工研究团队 021-60635738 农业产品研究团队 021-60635732 量化策略研究团队 021-60635726 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 沪铜冲高回落，主力最高涨至 88090，伦铜最高涨至 11000，均在前高附近 ...

Group 1: Industrial Metals - The copper market is experiencing upward price movement due to large copper mine production cuts, with the current phase being a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle. The supply disruptions in industrial metals are expected to lead to stable price increases, enhancing profits for listed companies in the industry. However, a rapid increase in copper prices may suppress downstream demand, leading to inventory accumulation during peak seasons, which is a signal of potential price peaks. Continuous monitoring of inventory changes is necessary [1][14][30] - The aluminum market is approaching a production peak in China, while foreign construction progress is slow. The next two years are expected to see peak production for China's electrolytic aluminum. The domestic aluminum supply-demand balance is fragile, and any increase in demand or supply disruptions could lead to shortages [1][32][38] Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold prices have reached new highs, driven by signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference, indicating rising employment risks and slowing GDP growth. The Fed's recent rate cut aligns with market expectations, and further cuts are anticipated. Global central banks are continuously increasing their gold reserves, suggesting a potential upward trend in gold prices through 2025 [3][11] Group 3: Energy Metals - The implementation of a quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to create a significant shortage in the global cobalt market over the next two years, leading to a long-term price increase. The lithium market is currently in a state of relative balance, with supply disruptions not fully resolved but demand expectations rising [4][5][12] Group 4: Minor Metals - The strategic importance of minor metals is increasing, with export controls on rare earths tightening. The price of rare earth minerals has seen significant increases, with prices for certain products rising by 37% quarter-on-quarter. Tungsten prices are also expected to rise due to increased demand and supply constraints [6][13][15] Group 5: Tin - Global visible tin inventories have significantly decreased, with a peak of 22,763 tons in May 2024, followed by a reduction to below 9,000 tons by the end of 2022. This trend indicates a tightening supply situation in the tin market [2][41][52]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The global ETF gold holdings have significantly increased, with a net inflow of 146 tons year-to-date, marking the largest single-month increase since March 2022. The North American market contributed the majority of this increase, reflecting concerns over U.S. economic risks, Federal Reserve policies, and geopolitical tensions [1][2] - The oil market is under pressure due to global risk asset sell-offs, despite OPEC's October meeting aligning with expectations for a slight reduction in production increases. Brent crude oil is expected to find support at around $60 per barrel [1][4] - The copper market is experiencing supply-side risks, particularly due to a Freeport incident leading to a supply-demand imbalance. Long-term fundamentals remain positive, with expectations of a copper shortage from 2025 to 2026 [1][6] Key Points on Specific Markets Gold Market - The rise in gold prices since September is primarily driven by safe-haven demand rather than expectations of interest rate cuts. The increase in ETF holdings in non-U.S. regions, especially Asia, is noteworthy [1][5] Oil Market - OPEC's recent actions included accelerating production cuts from April to September, with Saudi Arabia increasing production by approximately 1 million barrels. However, the market is expected to face downward pressure due to seasonal declines in downstream consumption and rising U.S. inventories [1][3][4] Pork Market - The pork market has seen a significant decline in prices, with a 15% drop in 2025 attributed to increased supply during peak seasons without a corresponding rise in demand. Future developments in the pork cycle will depend on supply-demand balance, policy adjustments, and breeding costs [1][7][8] - For October to November, pork prices are expected to continue declining, with planned slaughter volumes increasing by 5.5% and high slaughter weights maintained [1][9] - The medium-term outlook suggests that pork prices will not rebound significantly from Q4 2025 to H1 2026 due to ongoing supply pressures from increasing piglet numbers and policy measures affecting supply dynamics [1][10] - Long-term projections for H2 2026 indicate a target of 39 million breeding sows, with current losses in breeding profits accelerating the culling process. However, any significant capacity reduction in the near term may provide some price rebound opportunities [1][11] Additional Insights - The copper market is expected to remain in a state of shortage from 2025 to 2026, with favorable long-term fundamentals supporting price increases despite short-term market risk preferences [1][6] - The current futures market shows the 11 contract at a balanced state, indicating some supply pressure has been alleviated, while potential opportunities exist in the 09 contract due to deep losses in the 11 contract [1][12]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the gold market and the broader context of precious and base metals, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions and economic conditions [1][2][4] Core Insights and Arguments - **Gold Market Dynamics**: - Gold has seen a significant price increase, nearly 10% in a week, driven by declining trust in government currencies and rising geopolitical tensions [2] - The price of gold is expected to stabilize after geopolitical tensions ease, but it remains a crucial asset in the precious metals sector [1][7] - The gold-to-silver ratio is currently around 80, expected to correct to below 60 as economic conditions stabilize [2][11] - **Base Metals Outlook**: - The outlook for base metals, particularly copper and aluminum, is optimistic due to supply disruptions from natural disasters and geopolitical events [1][8] - Copper is anticipated to remain in a supply shortage throughout the next year, driven by natural factors affecting production [9][10] - Electrolytic aluminum is highlighted as a strong investment opportunity due to its low valuation and cyclical nature [9] - **Impact of U.S.-China Trade Relations**: - Recent escalations in U.S.-China trade tensions have introduced market uncertainties but also present investment opportunities in scarce assets like base metals and renewable energy [5][6] - The potential for negotiations between the two nations may alleviate current tensions, impacting market dynamics positively [6] - **Phosphate Market**: - Phosphate prices have rebounded to near 2022 highs, driven by demand in agriculture and the renewable energy sector, particularly lithium iron phosphate [2][17] - A global supply gap of 4% is noted due to surging demand from China's renewable energy sector [18] Additional Important Insights - **Investment Strategies**: - Investors are advised to focus on base metals and renewable energy assets as key areas for potential growth amidst current market volatility [4][5] - The steel sector is suggested as a defensive strategy due to expected production declines [2][11] - **Geopolitical Factors**: - The rise of right-wing politics and global political polarization is contributing to a decline in trust in fiat currencies, further driving demand for safe-haven assets like gold and base metals [1][2] - **Market Valuation**: - Base metals are currently valued at historical lows compared to gold, indicating potential for price increases [8] - **Future Projections**: - The copper market is expected to see price increases in the upcoming quarters, driven by ongoing supply constraints and rising demand from new economic sectors [10] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections from the conference call, focusing on the gold and base metals markets, the implications of geopolitical tensions, and strategic investment opportunities.