Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term trend rating for nickel is "shock", and the medium - term view is bullish [1] Core Viewpoints - The main operating range of nickel is between 118,000 and 126,000 yuan/ton; there is no upward breakthrough momentum in the short - term, but a bullish outlook in the medium - term. It is recommended to go long when the price approaches the lower limit [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro & Industry News - Botswana implemented a new mining regulation on October 1st, 2025. If the government chooses not to acquire the corresponding equity of a mining right, mining companies must sell 24% of the new mining right to local investors. The previous regulation allowed the government to acquire 15% of the mining right, and a higher proportion for diamond projects [1] 2. Supply - For nickel ore, the approaching rainy season in the Philippines and the previous riots in Indonesia may support the ore price. The nickel industry chain has been in an overall oversupply situation, and although the oversupply level may decline, the current situation is still one of oversupply, with relatively stable price ranges. For nickel iron, the profit in Indonesia is low but still positive, while domestic production is in the red. However, Indonesia's nickel - iron production continues to increase year - on - year. The production cost of electrowinning nickel for integrated pure - nickel enterprises has dropped to 118,500 yuan/ton, and the cost is relatively firm due to the support from the Indonesian government and the Philippines' rainy season. The bottom - line reference for pure nickel is about 118,000 yuan/ton [2] 3. Demand - The profit of the stainless - steel industry has recovered recently but is still in the loss range. The full - cost tracked by SMM is about 13,879 yuan/ton, and the cash - flow cost is about 13,017 yuan/ton. There is still an oversupply expectation in the nickel - ore end, which may drive down the nickel - iron price, and the stainless - steel price is still some distance from the cost support. In terms of demand, the real - estate market is at the bottom, small household appliances have recovered due to national subsidies, and there are few changes in tableware and medical devices. The substitution trend of infrastructure demand by 200 - series and 400 - series (low - quality stainless steel) continues. In the element competition, in a poor economic environment, the market pursues cost - effectiveness. Ternary batteries are gradually being replaced by lithium iron phosphate, and the high - nickel trend of ternary batteries has paused, with the proportion of 811 decreasing monthly and a shift to 622, which is generally unfavorable for nickel - element digestion, resulting in weak demand [2] 4. Inventory and Structure - LME nickel inventory continues to increase, and the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is increasing at an accelerated pace. The futures - spot and inter - month relationships maintain a Contango structure [3] 5. Other Data Analysis - The report also includes various data charts on macro - indicators, spot premiums and discounts, spreads, inventory, profit, and import profit and loss for metals such as lead, zinc, and nickel, which can be used for comprehensive analysis of the metals market [5][7][25][34][46][54]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The intraday decline of Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel was mainly affected by the broader market, and the fundamental logic temporarily failed. The quota for nickel ore in Indonesia is expected to decline in 2026, while the new energy sector is entering a peak season with strong downstream demand. Nickel iron prices lack upward momentum, and stainless steel may be weak due to profit pressure and weak demand. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, and macro - level attention should be paid to the subsequent development of Sino - US tariffs [3]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Price and Volatility Forecast - The price range forecast for Shanghai Nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2%. The price range forecast for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.78% and a historical percentile of 2.1% [2]. Risk Management Strategies Shanghai Nickel - **Inventory management**: When facing product price decline and inventory impairment risk, sell Shanghai Nickel futures (NI main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio, both with a strategy grade of 2 [2]. - **Procurement management**: When worried about raw material price increases, buy far - month Shanghai Nickel contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), with strategy grades of 3, 1, and 3 respectively [2]. Stainless Steel - **Inventory management**: When facing product price decline and inventory impairment risk, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio, both with a strategy grade of 2 [3]. - **Procurement management**: When worried about raw material price increases, buy far - month stainless steel contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), with strategy grades of 3, 1, and 3 respectively [3]. Market Analysis Core Contradictions - Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel declined due to the broader market. Nickel ore quota in Indonesia may decrease in 2026. The new energy sector is in a peak season with high demand. Nickel iron prices are weak, and stainless steel has profit and demand issues. There are export利好 factors for stainless steel, and attention should be paid to Sino - US tariffs [3]. Positive Factors - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period, changes in mining area management, progress in nickel smelting projects, favorable WTO rulings, and extension of Indian BIS certification exemption [5]. Negative Factors - High pure nickel inventory, Sino - US tariff disturbances, and weak stainless steel demand [5]. Nickel and Stainless Steel Disk Data - **Nickel**: The prices of Shanghai Nickel main contract and related contracts, as well as LME nickel 3M, all declined, with trading volume and open interest also decreasing, while the position of warehouse receipts increased slightly [5]. - **Stainless steel**: The prices of stainless steel contracts declined, but trading volume and open interest increased significantly, and the position of warehouse receipts decreased slightly [6]. Inventory Data - Domestic social nickel inventory is 43,694 tons, an increase of 2,866 tons; LME nickel inventory is 242,094 tons, an increase of 4,716 tons; stainless steel social inventory is 905.6 tons, a decrease of 3.4 tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 29,236 tons, an increase of 584 tons [7].

Report Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - Fed officials have significant differences on interest - rate cuts. Some believe the September cut was unnecessary, and the government shutdown makes economic assessment more difficult [6]. - Stock index futures are expected to oscillate with a slightly bullish bias, but investors should avoid over - aggressiveness. There are factors both favorable and unfavorable to the market [7][8]. - Copper supply disruptions are likely to push up prices due to events like the Indonesian mine accident and supply - side policy adjustments [10]. Summary by Directory Fed Interest - Rate Cut Situation - The Fed decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. Most participants emphasized inflation risks, and there were differences on the number of future cuts. The government shutdown has led to data delays, complicating economic assessment [6]. Stock Index Futures - Maintain a moderately bullish view on stock index futures, but avoid over - aggressiveness. The holiday situation is conducive to the continuation of the bullish market, but regulatory risks and the upcoming earnings season should be noted [7][8]. Copper - Supply disruptions, such as the Indonesian Grasberg mine accident, will reduce copper supply. The industry association advocates controlling smelting capacity expansion, and the market expects increased copper demand from AI, which may push up copper prices [10][21][23]. Other Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold is expected to continue hitting new highs, while silver will experience oscillatory adjustments [12][16]. - **Base Metals**: Each base metal has different trends, such as zinc having support, lead lacking drivers, and tin oscillating within a range [12][24][27]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Different energy and chemical products have various trends, including some expected to open high and then fall, and others to oscillate or be weak [12][15]. - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural products also show different trends, such as some oscillating weakly and others being slightly bullish [12][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the long - short contradictions in the nickel market are in balance, and nickel prices may continue to fluctuate within a range. However, if the contradictions on either side intensify in the fourth quarter, it will further increase the volatility of Shanghai nickel. For stainless steel, short - term steel prices lack upward drivers but do not have the basis for a sharp decline, and the long - term strategy of buying on dips has better cost - effectiveness [1][2]. Summary According to Related Contents Nickel Market - **Fundamentals**: Indonesian nickel mine contradictions have increased market concerns, while the steep accumulation of refined nickel inventory and weak expectations have put pressure on prices. The takeover of part of the Weda Bay Nickel mine and the suspension of 190 mining companies in Indonesia may affect the supply. However, the global refined nickel inventory has increased steeply, and the market expects a slowdown in implicit restocking. The nickel surplus is mainly in the pure nickel segment, showing a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 959 tons to 40,440 tons, with a decrease in warehouse receipt and spot inventory and unchanged bonded area inventory. LME nickel inventory increased by 1,680 tons to 230,124 tons [4]. - **Market News**: There are multiple pieces of news related to Indonesia, including plans to shorten mining quota periods, government - approved RKAB production, suspension of some nickel - iron production lines due to losses, requirements for resubmitting 2026 RKAB, and crackdowns on illegal mining. Also, China has suspended a non - official subsidy for importing copper and nickel from Russia [5][7][8]. Stainless Steel Market - **Fundamentals**: The short - term supply - demand logic and long - term "cost - performance trading" are in a game, and steel prices currently lack a clear trend. The demand side is suppressed by tariff pressure and weak real - estate post - cycle consumption, while the supply side has seen an expected increase in production after valuation repair [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of September 25, SMM stainless steel factory inventory was 1.549 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 5% and a month - on - month decrease of 1%; SMM stainless steel social inventory was 0.909 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6% and a month - on - month increase of 1%; the total social inventory of stainless steel monitored by Steel Union was 0.984 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3% and a month - on - month decrease of 0% [4]. - **Market News**: There are news such as a steel mill in Shandong reducing production due to capacity limitations and an Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park suspending part of its production lines [5][6]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,380, down 1,610; the closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,840, down 90. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 163,560, down 13,470; the trading volume of the stainless steel main contract was 262,187, up 81,878 [9]. - **Industry Chain**: Data on 1 imported nickel, Russian nickel premium and discount, nickel bean premium and discount, and other indicators are provided, as well as data on the stainless steel and nickel - related industry chain such as high - nickel pig iron, nickel plate - high - nickel iron spread, and nickel plate import profit [9].

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily [1] - Date: September 25, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel markets showed a strong and volatile trend. The nickel ore supply was unstable due to sanctions on mining companies in Indonesia and the approaching quota approval in October. The cobalt price was expected to rise, driving up the prices of MHP and nickel salts. The nickel iron price decreased due to stainless - steel demand constraints, and the stainless - steel market was also strong but with weak spot trading. The decline of the US dollar in the macro - level led to an upward movement in the non - ferrous metals market [3] - There were both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors included the proposed revision of the HPM formula in Indonesia, the shortening of the nickel ore quota period, continuous de - stocking of stainless steel, and the takeover of some nickel - producing areas. Negative factors included high pure nickel inventory, tariff disturbances, and weak stainless - steel spot trading [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Volatility Forecast - **Nickel**: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel was 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - **Stainless Steel**: The predicted price range of stainless steel was 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 6.95% and a historical percentile of 0.3% [2] Risk Management Strategies Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price declined and inventory had impairment risk, it was recommended to sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [2] - **Procurement Management**: When the company had future production procurement needs and was worried about rising raw material prices, it was recommended to buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [2] Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price declined and inventory had impairment risk, it was recommended to sell stainless - steel futures (SS main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [3] - **Procurement Management**: When the company had future production procurement needs and was worried about rising raw material prices, it was recommended to buy stainless - steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [3] Market Data Nickel | Indicator | Latest Value |环比差值 |环比 | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Nickel Main Contract | 122,990 | 0 | 0% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 1 | 122,990 | 1,540 | 1.27% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 2 | 123,160 | 1,530 | 1.26% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 3 | 123,350 | 1,460 | 1.26% | yuan/ton | | LME Nickel 3M | 15,240 | - 195 | - 1.20% | US dollars/ton | | Trading Volume | 177,030 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Open Interest | 99,642 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 25,153 | 48 | 0.19% | tons | | Main Contract Basis | - 505 | 185 | - 26.8% | yuan/ton | [5] Stainless Steel | Indicator | Latest Value |环比差值 |环比 | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stainless Steel Main Contract | 12,930 | 0 | 0% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 1 | 12,930 | 35 | 0.27% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 2 | 12,970 | 30 | 0.23% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 3 | 13,030 | 35 | 0.27% | yuan/ton | | Trading Volume | 129,897 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Open Interest | 109,896 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 87,505 | - 298 | - 0.34% | tons | | Main Contract Basis | 640 | - 35 | - 5.19% | yuan/ton | [5] Inventory Data | Inventory Type | Latest Value | Change from Previous Period | | --- | --- | --- | | Domestic Social Inventory of Nickel | 41,484 tons | + 429 tons | | LME Nickel Inventory | 230,586 tons | 0 tons | | Stainless Steel Social Inventory | 909 tons | + 11.8 tons | | Nickel Pig Iron Inventory | 28,652 tons | - 614.5 tons | [6] Positive and Negative Factors - **Positive Factors**: The Indonesian APNI planned to revise the HPM formula, the nickel ore quota period was shortened from three years to one year, stainless steel had been de - stocking for several weeks, and the Indonesian forestry working group took over part of the nickel - producing area of PT Weda Bay [5] - **Negative Factors**: The pure nickel inventory was high, there were still tariff disturbances between China and the US, the EU stainless - steel import tariff was uncertain, the anti - dumping duty on Chinese stainless - steel thick plates in South Korea was implemented, and the stainless - steel spot trading was weak [5]

Core View - Bullish factors include improved stainless steel mill profits leading to increased production, rising new energy vehicle sales boosting demand, strong cost support at the lower end, a falling US dollar index lifting nickel prices, and an improved macro - environment [3] - Bearish factors are high stainless steel inventories, declining demand for new energy ternary batteries suppressing nickel consumption, increasing global nickel ore supply and rising production, and a rebounding US dollar increasing cost pressure [3] - The trading advisory view is that the fundamentals are weak, but the increase in downstream procurement volume leads to significant divergence between bulls and bears [3] Market Data Nickel - The latest values of Shanghai nickel futures contracts (main, continuous 1, continuous 2, continuous 3) are 120990 yuan/ton, 120990 yuan/ton, 121110 yuan/ton, and 121300 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly increases of 0.57%, 1.15%, 1.09%, and 1.09% [4] - LME nickel 3M is at 15190 dollars/ton, up 1.04% weekly [4] - The positions decreased by 16.4% to 92205 hands, trading volume increased by 8.94% to 129831 hands, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2.39% to 22013 tons [4] - The basis of the main contract is - 1060 yuan/ton, down 7.83% [4] - The spot prices of金川 nickel, imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, and nickel beans are 122850 yuan/ton, 120950 yuan/ton, 121750 yuan/ton, and 123050 yuan/ton respectively, with daily decreases of 1.25%, 1.10%, 1.14%, and 1.05% [4] - The domestic social inventory of nickel is 40872 tons, a decrease of 1019 tons; LME nickel inventory is 209676 tons, an increase of 456 tons [4][7] Stainless Steel - The latest values of stainless steel futures contracts (main, continuous 1, continuous 2, continuous 3) are 12850 yuan/ton, 12850 yuan/ton, 12915 yuan/ton, and 12980 yuan/ton respectively, with the main contract unchanged, and continuous 1, 2, 3 up 0.78%, 0.70%, and 0.89% weekly [4] - The trading volume decreased by 22.05% to 121866 hands, positions decreased by 10.48% to 127116 hands, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.47% to 100431 tons [4] - The basis of the main contract is 620 yuan/ton, down 13.89% [4] - The stainless steel social inventory is 928.8 thousand tons, a decrease of 4.6 thousand tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 33111 tons, a decrease of 304 tons [7] Charts - There are charts showing the trends of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel futures main contracts, stainless steel futures main contract, nickel spot average price, China's refined nickel monthly production, China's primary nickel total monthly supply, domestic social nickel inventory, LME nickel inventory, Philippine laterite nickel ore price, China's port nickel ore inventory, China's nickel - iron monthly production, Indonesia's nickel pig iron monthly production, battery - grade nickel sulfate average price, nickel - bean - produced nickel sulfate profit margin, China's externally - sourced nickel - sulfate - produced electrowon nickel profit, China's nickel sulfate monthly production, ternary precursor monthly production capacity, China's 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coil profit margin, stainless steel monthly production, and stainless steel inventory [9][11][13][15][16][17][20][22][24][26][28][29][31][33]

Group 1 - Nickel prices in Shanghai experienced slight fluctuations, with the main contract closing down by 0.3% at 119,830 yuan per ton, amid increased domestic supply of nickel elements due to significant rises in imports of nickel ore, nickel iron, and refined nickel in July [1] - The price of Philippine nickel ore remained stable, with CIF prices for NI1.3% at $41-$43 per wet ton, NI1.4% at $49-$51 per wet ton, and NI1.5% at $56-$58 per wet ton, despite unfavorable shipping conditions due to rain [1] - Downstream enterprises have increased procurement as nickel prices slightly declined, with stable trading in refined nickel spot markets, while stainless steel demand remains weak despite production cuts in June and July [1] Group 2 - The current contradictions in the nickel industry are concentrated in the stainless steel market, with the cost transmission path from "stainless steel-nickel ore-primary nickel" determining the cost center for primary nickel [2] - After a recovery to around 13,000, stainless steel prices have continued to decline, leading to renewed pessimism in market sentiment, with ongoing inventory and supply pressures [2] - Future demand for stainless steel during the traditional peak season remains uncertain, with a focus on the shipping pace of leading steel mills, and nickel prices are expected to lack short-term drivers, maintaining a weak outlook overall [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and US tariff agreements impact metal prices. After the nickel price followed the anti - involution sentiment and declined, the industry chain's continuous losses still provide strong cost support. The fundamentals have changed little, with pure nickel remaining in an oversupply situation. In August, the production schedules of domestic electrowinning nickel and Indonesian secondary nickel continued to rise. During the traditional off - season, downstream demand was sluggish. Although there was an expectation of increased stainless - steel production in August, there were many disturbances from production cuts and maintenance due to policies, and the spot market transactions were weak. The improvement in the ternary industry chain was limited, with the growth rate of electric vehicle retail sales slowing down in July and the market share of ternary batteries being continuously squeezed by lithium iron phosphate. As the rainy season was coming to an end, nickel ore port inventories continued to accumulate, and there was an expectation of a decline in ore prices [10]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 01 Viewpoint and Strategy - **Main Viewpoints**: Macro factors and cost support affect nickel price; fundamentals show oversupply, and downstream demand is weak during the off - season [10]. - **Industry News**: In July 2025, GEM's Indonesian nickel project produced over 10,000 tons of nickel in a single month. Some steel mills actively controlled production in response to the national "anti - involution" policy, and northern steel mills planned maintenance from late August to early September [10]. - **Important Data**: This week, LME nickel inventory increased by 3150 tons, domestic inventory increased by 745 tons, and global visible nickel inventory increased by 1.57% to 253,000 tons. Indonesia's August (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price rose by $0.2 - 0.3, with a premium of +24 as the mainstream. In July, China's refined nickel production was 36,151 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.74%, and the estimated production in August was 37,760 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.45%. In August, domestic stainless - steel production was scheduled to be 3.3041 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.64% [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: For nickel, due to the increasing production capacity of Indonesian secondary nickel and domestic electrowinning nickel and the slowdown in off - season demand growth, the oversupply situation is expected to continue. In the long - term, the oversupply of nickel is difficult to reverse. In the short - term, affected by macro sentiment and cost support, it is expected that SHFE nickel will fluctuate in the range of [117,000, 125,000] yuan/ton, and a sell - on - rally strategy is recommended. For stainless steel, the current anti - involution production cuts still support the stainless - steel market. However, in the long - term, the oversupply will suppress price increases. It is expected that SHFE stainless steel will fluctuate in the range of [12,300, 13,200] yuan/ton, and short - selling is recommended when the price rebounds to the upper end of the range [10]. 02盘面回顾 - Nickel prices continued to fluctuate, and relevant data on domestic liquidity positions, spot premiums, and price differences between the two markets were presented [12][13]. 03 Fundamental Analysis - **Nickel Ore**: Nickel ore ports saw inventory accumulation, and ore prices remained stable. The mainstream transaction price of 1.3% nickel ore from the Philippines was mostly CIF42, and that from the Philippines to Indonesia was mostly CIF41. Indonesia's August (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price rose by $0.2 - 0.3 [16][17]. - **Nickel Iron**: In July, the total production of nickel pig iron in China and Indonesia was 178,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.35% and a year - on - year increase of 20.61%. The market quotation for nickel iron was firm, with the mainstream price ranging from 930 - 940 yuan/nickel [21]. - **Intermediate Products**: In July, nickel intermediate products increased by 7.5% month - on - month to 54,400 tons. The price followed the increase in nickel prices, the production cost of nickel sulfate increased, and the loss situation worsened [25]. - **Imports**: In June, nickel iron imports increased significantly, while intermediate product imports decreased [28]. - **Inventory**: This week, LME inventory increased by 3150 tons to 212,200 tons, and domestic social inventory increased by 745 tons to 39,300 tons. Spot transactions were generally cold [32]. - **Electrowinning Nickel**: In July, China's refined nickel production was 36,151 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.74% and a year - on - year increase of 24.57%. The estimated production in August was 37,760 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.45%. There were also detailed plans for domestic and Indonesian electrowinning nickel projects [36][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: Some steel mills planned production cuts and maintenance. The loss of integrated production narrowed, and the economic efficiency of scrap stainless steel became more prominent. Stainless - steel inventory continued to decline, but the social inventory was still high. Demand was weak due to the real - estate downturn and the traditional off - season [40][44][51]. - **Ternary Industry Chain**: In August, the production of lithium batteries increased, and the production of the ternary industry chain also increased, but the improvement in demand was limited [56]. - **Electric Vehicles**: In the first half of the year, domestic electric vehicle production and sales increased by 41.4% and 40.3% year - on - year respectively, with a sales penetration rate of 44.3%. The share of ternary batteries was squeezed by lithium iron phosphate [60]. 04 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The global nickel supply surplus is expected to expand year - on - year. In 2025E, the total supply is estimated to be 389.3 million tons, while the total demand is 354.5 million tons, resulting in a surplus of 34.8 million tons. In China, the supply surplus is also expected to be 16.2 million tons in 2025 [70].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report Short - term nickel and stainless - steel prices are weakened by market sentiment. The overall fundamentals change little. There is support from nickel - iron and intermediate product prices at the lower end and demand suppression at the upper end, so they still show a volatile trend [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price - Monthly changes:沪镍 fell 1.2%, LME nickel fell 2.1%, nickel - iron prices rose, and nickel sulfate prices fell slightly. Stainless - steel spot prices generally increased, and the spot premium rose 220 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton [5][57] - Specific price data: For example,沪镍 dropped from 121,220 yuan/ton to 119,770 yuan/ton; LME nickel decreased from 15,340 dollars/ton to 15,020 dollars/ton [6] 3.2 Supply - **Nickel - related supply** - Nickel ore: The price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore 1.2% decreased by 0.2 dollars/wet ton to 24.8 dollars/wet ton, 1.6% remained at 52.1 dollars/wet ton. Indonesian nickel ore premium dropped 1 dollar/wet ton to 24 dollars/wet ton, and Philippine nickel ore 1.5% stayed at 7 dollars/wet ton [4][5][18] - Refined nickel: In August, the production is expected to increase 2% month - on - month to 33,000 tons [4][5] - Nickel - iron: The market was inactive, and the transaction price center shifted slightly upward [4][5][21] - Intermediate products: Spot prices declined slightly, and market activity remained stable [4][5][24] - Nickel sulfate: In August, the production is expected to drop 3% month - on - month to 28,349 nickel tons [4][5][29] - **Stainless - steel supply** - In July 2025, the estimated crude - steel output of 43 domestic stainless - steel plants was 3.2302 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 61,400 tons (1.87%) and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. In August, the planned output is 3.3041 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.64% [4][57][71] 3.3 Demand - **Stainless - steel demand** - Inventory: The warehouse - receipt inventory decreased 429 tons to 103,000 tons month - on - month. The total social inventory of 89 warehouses in the national mainstream stainless - steel market decreased 7,000 tons to 1.111 million tons week - on - week, with the 300 - series increasing 7,000 tons to 677,000 tons [4][57][64] - Consumption: According to the production schedule report of three major white goods released by Industrial Online, the total planned production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August 2025 is 26.97 million units, a 4.9% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year [4][57][82] - **New - energy demand** - Ternary precursor: In August, the production is expected to increase 5% month - on - month to 76,160 tons [4][5][41] - Ternary material: In August, the production is expected to increase 3% month - on - month to 70,750 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased 53 tons to 16,499 tons [4][5][43] - Power cells: The weekly cell production decreased 0.5% to 22.57 Wh, with lithium - iron increasing 0.5% to 15.66 GWh and ternary decreasing 2.7% to 6.91 GWh [4][5][46] - New - energy vehicles: From July 1st to 20th, the wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 514,000 units, a 25% year - on - year increase and a 12% decrease compared to the previous month; the retail volume was 537,000 units, a 23% year - on - year increase and a 12% decrease compared to the previous month. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy market was 54.9%, and the wholesale penetration rate of new - energy manufacturers was 53.6% [4][5][51] 3.4 Inventory - Nickel inventory: During the week, LME inventory increased 5,160 tons to 209,082 tons;沪镍 inventory decreased 331 tons to 21,374 tons, social inventory decreased 795 tons to 39,486 tons, and bonded - area inventory increased 500 tons to 5,200 tons [5][12][16] - Stainless - steel inventory: As mentioned above, the warehouse - receipt and social inventory of stainless - steel changed as described in the demand section [4][57][64] 3.5 Cost - profit - Stainless - steel: Raw material prices were stable, while finished - product prices fluctuated greatly. The profit margins of stainless - steel smelting, cold - rolling 304, and hot - rolling 304 were also presented in relevant charts [57][80] 3.6 Supply - demand Balance - Nickel: There are charts showing the supply - demand balance of primary nickel and nickel sulfate [53][54][56] - Stainless - steel: There is a chart presenting the supply - demand balance of Chinese stainless - steel [91][92]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel have changed little, and they are expected to maintain a volatile trend. The supply - surplus pattern of refined nickel persists, and the supply - demand surplus situation of stainless steel is also difficult to change. It is recommended to mainly conduct range operations for both nickel and 304 stainless steel [1][5][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety Cost - In July, the premium of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore remained at $24 - 26 per wet ton, with the base price slightly down by 0.2%. Due to weak demand, the price of nickel ore from the Surigao mining area in the Philippines continued to decline. The CIF price of NI1.3% from the Philippines to China dropped to $42 - 44 per wet ton, and NI1.5% dropped to $57 - 59 per wet ton. The costs of various refining nickel processes fluctuated slightly, with the cost of externally purchased nickel sulfate and MHP at about 133,000 yuan per ton, the cost of high - grade nickel matte and laterite nickel ore high - grade nickel matte integration at about 126,000 yuan per ton, and the cost of laterite nickel ore MHP integration at about 105,000 yuan per ton [2][7]. Supply - In June 2025, China's refined nickel production was 34,515 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.11% and a year - on - year increase of 30.37%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative production was 210,349 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 41.50%. The estimated production in July was 36,745 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.46% and a year - on - year increase of 26.62%. From January to June 2025, Indonesia's cumulative refined nickel production was 33,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 59.15%. The estimated production in July was 7,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.54% and a year - on - year increase of 114.29% [3][56]. Consumption - In June 2025, China's apparent consumption of refined nickel was 33,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.19% and a year - on - year increase of 80.62%. From January to June, the cumulative consumption was 167,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 64.41%. The stainless steel production schedule in July was 3.3623 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.91%, among which the 300 - series was 1.7912 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36% [4]. Inventory - As of August 1, the global visible inventory of refined nickel was 253,000 tons, including 209,000 tons in LME inventory and 39,500 tons in domestic social inventory, a decrease of 796 tons compared with July 25 [4]. Valuation - In the short term, the cost support at the mine end is weakened due to the low utilization rate of the RKAB quota in Indonesia (only 120 million tons in the first half of the year) and the decline in the price of Philippine nickel ore. In the long term, the pattern of industrial over - supply remains unchanged. Although Norilsk Nickel has lowered its 2025 production guidance to 196,000 - 204,000 tons, the annual surplus is still estimated to be 120,000 tons. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate in the range of 115,000 - 125,000 yuan [4]. View and Strategy - The recent market sentiment has cooled down. It is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is around 123,000 - 125,000 yuan, and the lower limit is around 117,000 - 118,000 yuan. It is recommended to mainly conduct range operations [5][6]. 304 Stainless Steel Variety Cost - Similar to nickel ore costs in the nickel variety, the cost of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel is about 12,800 yuan per ton. The cost of Indonesian ferronickel is 920 - 930 yuan per nickel, and the domestic cost is 1,020 - 1,025 yuan per nickel. The price of high - carbon ferrochrome has dropped to 7,700 - 7,900 yuan per 50 - base ton [7]. Supply - In July 2025, the crude steel production of 43 domestic stainless steel plants was 3.2916 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.95% and a year - on - year increase of 0.09%, among which the 300 - series was 1.744 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.28%. The estimated production in August is expected to rebound to 3.3623 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.14%, and the 300 - series is 1.7912 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.71% [7]. Consumption - In June 2025, the apparent consumption of domestic stainless steel was 2.7807 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.42% and a year - on - year increase of 1.60%. The estimated export volume in July was 380,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.0%, and the impact of the US tariff policy is gradually emerging [7]. Inventory - According to Mysteel data on July 31, the total social inventory of stainless steel in the national mainstream markets (89 - warehouse caliber) was 1,111,189 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.66%. Among them, the inventory of cold - rolled stainless steel was 627,071 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.26%, and the inventory of hot - rolled stainless steel was 484,118 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.83%. For the 300 - series, the total inventory was 676,670 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1% [8]. View and Strategy - The recent market sentiment of stainless steel has cooled down. It is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is around 13,500 yuan, and the lower limit is around 12,400 yuan. It is recommended to mainly conduct range operations between 12,400 - 13,500 yuan [9][10]. Global and Chinese Primary Nickel Supply - Demand Situation Global Primary Nickel - In the first half of 2025, the global primary nickel supply was about 1.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 10%. The supply of refined nickel and Indonesian NPI increased significantly, with year - on - year growth rates of 11% and 21% respectively, while the global FeNi decreased significantly by nearly 13%. The consumption growth rates of the stainless steel and alloy industries were relatively high, with the stainless steel consumption growth rate at about 7.5% and the alloy consumption year - on - year growth rate close to 5%. In the first half of the year, the global primary nickel supply was sufficient, with a slight inventory build - up. It is expected that both supply and demand will continue to grow in the second half of 2025. The annual supply is expected to reach 3.77 million tons, a year - on - year growth rate of about 4.7%, and the consumption is about 3.65 million tons, a year - on - year growth rate of 4.9%. The annual surplus is estimated to be 150,000 tons [19]. Chinese Primary Nickel - In the first half of 2025, China's total primary nickel supply was about 1.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. The import of primary nickel increased by 5% year - on - year, and the import of ferronickel increased significantly. The domestic production of nickel pig iron also increased. From the overall supply - demand data, the inventory increased by 120,000 tons in the first half of the year, indicating a relatively loose supply. It is expected that both supply and demand will continue to grow in 2025. The total annual primary nickel supply is expected to be 2.5 million tons, the consumption is 2.28 million tons, and the surplus is 250,000 tons [35]. Stainless Steel Industry Production and Capacity - As of July 2025, the national monthly stainless steel production schedule is expected to be 3.47 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.6%. Among them, the 200 - series production schedule is 1.06 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.9%, the 300 - series is 1.76 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%, and the 400 - series is 650,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% [118]. Terminal Consumption - The terminal consumption of 300 - series stainless steel is relatively dispersed, and is more correlated with the macro - economic level. The real estate sector is the main drag factor, while the home appliance sector is the main factor boosting consumption, driven by policies such as "trade - in" and "national subsidies" [141]. Profit Level - As of July 2025, for the short - process smelting of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel, the cost was 12,627 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 56 yuan per ton, and the profit margin was 0.18%, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%. For the process of purchasing high - grade ferronickel externally, the cost was 12,897 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6 yuan per ton, and the profit margin was - 1.92%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04%. For the process of using low - grade ferronickel + pure nickel, the cost was 15,890 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 44 yuan per ton, and the profit margin was - 20.39%, a month - on - month increase of 0.22% [166].