沈阳公用发展股份(00747)发布截至2025年6月30日止6个月业绩，该集团期内取得收益94.8万元人民币， 同比减少82.65%;公司拥有人应占亏损318.6万元，同比盈转亏;每股基本亏损0.22分。 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 中国经济丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 盈利改善既靠分配也靠增收 ——1-7 月工业企业利润点评 报告要点 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Summary] 7 月工业企业利润当月同比增速较 6 月回升，主要源自利润率的同比增速边际回升。而量的同 比增速边际回落，反映当期下游需求仍然偏弱，也导致营收同比增速回落。向前看，我们认为， 1）出口链行业的增长仍是整体利润的重要支撑，或缘于当下全球非美需求持续偏强；2）从 7 月 PMI 表现来看，工业品原材料采购价格和出厂价格的轧差已在扩大，在整体需求未明显反转 的环境下，上游提价对下游利润的挤出效应值得关注；3）进入四季度后，经济数据开始受到去 年高基数的影响，需关注内需韧性是否能支撑企业盈利维持稳定。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 刘承昊 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490523050001 SFC：BUX667 SFC：BVA882 cjzqdt11111 2025-08-27 中国经济丨点评报告 [Table_R ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程专题 2025H1，微盘股强势领涨，背后可能主要受量化资金推动，体现为私募新发规模 与微盘超额之间相关性显著。不过，我们认为量化资金后续发力空间有限，H2 核 心增量资金可能来自游资、居民等个人投资者： 1、我们已经观察到私募量化的激进度开始回落，私募量化新发空气指增+量化选 股等激进类产品的占比已从 7 月的 46%下行至 8 月的 36%。此外，测算结果显 示，私募量化对微盘的暴露已经达到历史高点附近，未来进一步向微盘偏离的空 间可能有限。 金融工程专题 报告日期：2025 年 08 月 27 日 资金面的接力："量化牛"转"全面牛" ——金融工程研究报告 核心观点 A 股或将由上半年的"量化牛"转为"全面牛"，核心推动力在于个人投资者接替量化 资金成为 A 股主导力量。未来建议关注券商、恒生科技、公用事业板块。 ❑ 2025 增量资金从哪来？H1 量化牛，7-8 月游资加杠杆，9 月后等待居民资金接 力。 2、个人投资者已经开始争夺定价权，直接表现为融资余额的加速增长和游资定价 权的显著提升，我们构建的游资活跃度指标与国证 2000 指数相对净值的滚动 1 年 相关系数自 7 ...

海南日报三亚8月26日电(海南日报全媒体记者 余佳琪 见习记者 余洋)8月26日，在三亚湾海域， 众多游艇破浪前行，在蔚蓝海面上划出条条白色航迹；在陵水黎族自治县新村镇，渔排灾后抢收工作有 序推进，渔业生产正逐步恢复正常；在保亭黎族苗族自治县，旅游景区、文体场所恢复对外开放，热闹 场景依旧；在乐东黎族自治县，佛罗蜜瓜保险理赔绿色通道已经启动……台风"剑鱼"影响减弱后，三 亚、陵水、保亭、乐东等受灾市县聚焦复工复产关键需求，推动当地生产生活秩序基本恢复正常。 当下，各项民生基础设施快速修复。海南日报全媒体记者从三亚市应急管理局获悉，随着灾后恢复 工作的全面推进，三亚各项民生基础设施快速修复。截至8月26日15时，三亚市22座因停电导致停水的 供水加压泵站已全部恢复运行；电力线路已恢复线路113条，恢复率达72.49%；恢复供气1071户，此前 受淹的12个小区已全部恢复正常。 在陵水新村镇，陵水疍家渔排党支部组织党员干部，为渔民清理海域周边障碍物，帮助渔民搭建与 修复临时住房，让他们尽快住进"安心屋"。 与此同时，陆海空立体交通网络有序运转，为受灾市县全面复工复产注入了强劲动力。 航运方面，"我们在上午8点解除 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Layout of the bottom - position is as important as flexible offense. A basket of "high - dividend × low - volatility" dividend assets can provide a natural "shock absorber" for the portfolio, and the combination can withstand extreme market conditions by suppressing volatility with stable cash flows and low β and then capturing market mismatches with the remaining positions [3]. - To amplify returns in the dividend pool, a dual - screening approach is more reliable than relying solely on the "high - dividend" indicator. Adding a second filter such as low - volatility, earnings quality, or institutional holdings can eliminate potential risks and further increase the returns of general dividend assets [3]. - On top of the dividend bottom - position, there are systematic excess opportunities from the left - to - right shift of the industrial cycle. Priority should be given to companies with stable cash flows despite pressured profits. Industries such as cement, silicone, and phosphate chemicals are currently in the preferred range, while the photovoltaic chain is still in a state of "double losses in profit and cash flow". The overall allocation strategy involves initially establishing an observation position, increasing the position after confirming the leading indicators of the profit inflection point, and exiting when profits weaken again or the gross margin is inverted [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bottom - Position Allocation Necessity: "Pure Left" and "Pure Right" Are Not Desirable - In a market with an increasing industry rotation center, it is crucial to build a long - term core position first. A 15 - year quarterly rotation experiment on 31 Shenwan primary industries shows that both extreme left - side bottom - fishing and extreme right - side chasing result in single - digit annualized returns and significant drawdowns. In contrast, a dividend portfolio characterized by "high - dividend × low - volatility" can provide double - digit annualized returns and keep drawdowns within an acceptable range. Therefore, increasing the exposure of "high - dividend + low - β" in the bottom - position can provide a safety cushion for the portfolio [7]. - Dividend assets are the optimal core bottom - position in terms of return - to - drawdown. Historical stress tests show that the dividend index has shallower drawdowns, a stable 3 - year rolling Sharpe ratio, and does not require market timing in the long - term perspective. It also has higher probabilities of achieving positive returns in different holding periods compared to most broad - based and style indices [10][12][21]. 3.2 Dividend Yield Single - Factor Trap - Selecting stocks based solely on the "high - dividend" factor often leads to choosing high - volatility stocks with limited return increases and large drawdowns. Adding a second filter such as low - volatility or earnings quality can improve the overall cost - effectiveness. Statistical regression shows that the dividend yield alone has a weak explanatory power for future returns [29]. - Several case studies illustrate different types of "false high - dividend" traps. For example, some companies rely on one - time gains to support high dividends, some have high dividends due to falling stock prices rather than improved profitability, and some have high dividends at the peak of the business cycle or due to high leverage. To avoid these traps, specific financial and operational criteria need to be set [37][40][44]. 3.3 High - Dividend Smart - Beta's Distortion Risk - Modified dividend indices such as "Dividend Quality" and "Dividend Potential" have larger fluctuations and deeper drawdowns than the CSI Dividend Index. Their style drift and uncontrolled risk exposure lead to higher volatility, especially in bear markets. The main reasons are their high - concentration weighting, high - valuation requirements, and frequent chasing of market highs [60][64]. - The CSI Dividend Index selects 100 stocks based on a three - year dividend yield with a diversified weighting, while the Dividend Quality and Dividend Potential indices select 50 stocks by adding factors such as ROE and EPS growth, with a more concentrated and high - chasing weighting. As a result, they are more likely to suffer from double - kills of earnings and valuation when the market weakens [64]. 3.4 Potential Ways to Enhance Dividend Low - Volatility - **Dividend + Pricing Power Approach**: Traditional high - dividend indices have several drawbacks, including style drift, inclusion of high - risk high - dividend stocks, and right - side trading characteristics. A comprehensive scoring system based on pricing power, price - to - earnings ratio, and stability can be used to select the top 20 stocks for a portfolio. A ten - year back - test shows that this combination has better performance in terms of cumulative return, annualized return, and drawdown control compared to the CSI Dividend Index [83][84]. - **Considering Institutional Participation Rate**: Incorporating institutional holdings into high - dividend screening reveals that stocks with high institutional participation (≥20%) from stable - cash - flow industries have better risk - return profiles, including higher cumulative returns, greater upside potential, and controlled drawdowns. In contrast, stocks with low institutional participation (<20%) from cyclical industries perform less well. Therefore, combining high - dividends with institutional recognition can build a safer and more sustainable dividend portfolio [89]. 3.5 Bottom - Position Is Not Just Dividends: Quality Low - Volatility and Cash Cows - The "quality + low - volatility" dual - screened bottom - position established in June 2020 can achieve a balance between offense and defense. By filtering out high - leverage and low - resilience companies and compressing risk thresholds, it has achieved a five - year rolling net value increase of about 1.6 times, with stable single - digit annualized returns and significantly reduced volatility and drawdowns compared to ordinary low - volatility strategies [94]. - The long - term returns of dividend assets mainly come from stable dividends and profits rather than valuation increases. From 2014 - 2025, the annualized total returns of Dividend Low - Volatility and CSI Dividend after reinvestment were 13.9% and 13.2% respectively, with dividend contributions exceeding 9 percentage points and accounting for over 70% of the total returns [98]. - The cash - cow enhancement framework uses six dimensions to examine potential risks in high - dividend portfolios and provides corresponding enhancement measures. These measures include equal - weighting industries and quality sorting to address concentration risks, using free - cash - flow and growth thresholds to eliminate "high - dividend traps", and implementing valuation gates and hedging strategies to manage valuation risks [108]. 3.6 Industrial Cycle Reversal: From Left to Right - At the inflection point of the industrial cycle, multi - dimensional indicators such as fundamentals, inventory, price, valuation, and funds often show concurrent inflection points. The consistency in the industry dimension, from raw material prices to mid - stream production and downstream demand, can improve the reliability of inflection - point signals. For example, the anti - involution market rhythm is often in line with this "consistency chain" [111][112]. - At the company level, by dividing samples into leading, mid - stream, and tail companies, monitoring the second - order derivatives of 10 key indicators can help identify the acceleration of marginal improvements in demand, pricing, or cash flows. When at least three indicators in any two of the three sample layers show positive second - order derivatives, it can be regarded as a company - level consistency inflection point [114]. - The industrial cycle reversal framework uses a "three - light" approach to determine investment opportunities. When the three conditions of valuation repair, profit - cash flow resonance improvement, and completion of inventory reduction and demand expansion are met simultaneously, it indicates a three - dimensional resonance of supply - demand, profit, and sentiment, and investors can make aggressive investments. Otherwise, they should continue to hold the dividend bottom - position [115].

从中国低碳指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比42.18%、深圳证券交易所占比36.73%、香 港证券交易所占比20.51%、新加坡证券交易所占比0.33%、纳斯达克全球精选市场证券交易所 (Consolidated Issue)占比0.25%。 从中国低碳指数持仓样本的行业来看，电力设备占比58.17%、公用事业占比27.13%、环保占比8.05%、 乘用车及零部件占比3.91%、机械制造占比2.16%。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期 调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对指数进行临时调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样 本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的处理，参照计算与维护细则处理。 据了解，中国低碳指数选取境内外上市的中国公司中在低碳经济领域具有代表性的40家公司证券作为指 数样本，反映低碳公司的整体表现。该指数以2006年12月31日为基日，以1000.0点为基点。 从指数持仓来看，中国低碳指数十大权重分别为：阳光电源（7.0 ...

时政要闻 国家发展改革委等三部门：规范互联网平台价格行为，引导经营者依法自主定价 近日，国家发展改革委、市场监管总局、国家网信办联合起草了《互联网平台价格行为规则（征求意见 稿）》（以下简称《行为规则》），并向社会公开征求意见。《行为规则》主要包含以下四方面内容： 一是引导经营者依法自主定价。明确平台经营者、平台内经营者依法自主定价的基本要求。规范平台经 营者收费行为。提出保护平台内经营者自主定价权的细化规定，特别是要求平台经营者不得采取限制流 量、屏蔽店铺、下架商品或者服务等措施，对平台内经营者的价格行为进行不合理限制。 二是明确经营者价格标示要求。细化平台经营者、平台内经营者明码标价的规定，明确销售商品、提供 服务需要遵守的价格标示规范。要求平台经营者、平台内经营者做好价格促销、补贴、差别定价、动态 定价、竞价排名等规则公开，接受社会监督。 三是规范经营者价格竞争行为。围绕维护价格竞争秩序、明确价格诚信要求等方面，提出具体的认定标 准和监管要求，为经营者价格竞争行为提供指引，引导经营者有序竞争、公平竞争。 四是构建协同共治机制。充分发挥各方作用，加强政府部门协同，形成监管合力；指导行业协会加强行 业自律， ...

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 华润电力（00836） 证券研究报告 纯火电权益核心利润保持增长，一次性因素扰动业绩 事件： 公司发布 2025 年中期业绩。上半年公司持有人应占利润为 78.72 亿港元， 同比减少 15.9%；持有人应占核心业务利润 82.78 亿港元，同比增加 0.1%。 公司 2025 年中期拟每股派息 0.356 港元。 点评 风光全年并网容量 10GW 规划不变，预计下半年投产火电权益装机 6GW 上半年公司新增风光并网装机约 4,839 兆瓦，新增火电项目权益并网装机 894 兆瓦。截至 6 月底，公司火力发电权益并网装机容量为 39.14GW，风 电权益并网装机容量为 25.55GW，光伏权益并网装机容量为 12.97GW；公 司风电在建管理装机容量为 8,679 兆瓦，光伏在建管理装机容量为 6,515 兆瓦。上半年公司获得可再生能源开发建设指标 5,874 兆瓦，其中风电项 目 3,996 兆瓦，光伏项目 1,878 兆瓦。展望后续，公司规划全年新增风电 和光伏项目并网容量 10,000 兆瓦，与年初目标一致；下半年公司预计投产 的火电机组权益装机容量约 5,982.5 兆瓦。 ...

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 成本方面，上半年公司经营开支为 95.67 亿元，同比增长 10.8%，主要由于 风电和光伏分部的折旧摊销受新项目转固的影响增加、以及新项目投产使 得员工成本等增加影响。综合来看，公司实现持续经营业务经营利润 67.30 亿元，同比下降 6.2%。分业务来看，上半年公司风电分部经营利润为 62.13 亿元，同比下降 10.5%，主要系利用小时下降、电价下降等影响；光伏分 部经营利润为 5.50 亿元，同比增长 51.1%，主要系装机容量增加带动发电 量增加。 龙源电力（00916） 证券研究报告 新能源电量持续增长，拟中期分红 事件： 公司发布 2025 年中期业绩。上半年公司实现营业收入 156.57 亿元，同比 下降 18.6%；实现归母净利润 35.19 亿元，同比下降 14.4%。公司中期拟每 股派发现金红利 0.1 元（税前），分红总额约 8.36 亿元（税前）。 点评 H1 净新增新能源装机 2.1GW，控股装机已达 43.2GW 上半年公司净新增新能源控股装机容量 2,053.54 兆瓦，其中新增风电控股 装机容量 986.95 兆瓦、光伏控股装机容量 1,096.5 ...

Group 1 - Current A-share market sentiment is at a historically high level, characterized by liquidity, asset pricing differences, and trading activity [1] - Several industries, including chemicals, building materials, light manufacturing, machinery, defense, automotive, home appliances, textiles, non-bank financials, electronics, communications, computers, and media, are triggering congestion indicators [1] - A high number of industries are in a sustained congestion state, indicating potential for market adjustments [1] Group 2 - A-share market showed strong fluctuations with sectors like liquor, non-ferrous metals, communication equipment, and aerospace performing well, while electronic chemicals, automotive, beauty care, and utilities lagged [2] - There is a notable shift of household savings towards capital markets, providing a continuous source of incremental funds [2] - The overall profit growth expectation for A-share listed companies is projected to turn positive by 2025, ending a four-year decline, with significant elasticity in the technology innovation sector [2] Group 3 - Following stabilization of overseas liquidity disturbances, the A-share market continued its trend of rising volume and price, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearing 3900 points and total market turnover exceeding 30 trillion [3] - There is a focus on the rotation opportunities in recently popular sectors and potential rebounds in relatively low-positioned sectors supported by recent policies [3] - The "anti-involution" policy and demand-side policies are expected to significantly influence the A-share market, with household savings entering the market being a crucial support for index strength [3]