Group 1 - The three major indices opened lower on February 4, indicating a bearish market sentiment [1] - The Tianhong Agricultural ETF (512620) has seen a net inflow of over 100 million yuan in the past four trading days, with a year-to-date share growth of over 34%, making it the top performer among similar funds [1] - The ETF closely tracks the CSI Agricultural Index, covering sectors such as breeding and agricultural chemicals, and includes leading companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Haida Group [1] Group 2 - According to Dongfang Securities, 2026 is projected to be a turning point for the agricultural sector, with both breeding and planting expected to drive upward trends in the industry [2] - The swine breeding sector is highlighted as a key area, with strong companies continuing to show profitability and increased dividend rates, which are essential for long-term performance and valuation growth [2] - Recent policies and market dynamics are facilitating the reduction of production capacity in the swine breeding industry, which is expected to enhance long-term performance in the sector [2]

Group 1 - Strong sectors today include non-ferrous metals, energy chemicals (some varieties), and shipping sectors [3][16] - Weakest sectors are black metals (iron ore) and agricultural products (live pigs) [3][16] - Core long positions are in copper, PVC, and alumina, while core short positions are in live pigs and iron ore [3][16] Group 2 - The global situation shows a sharp reversal in Federal Reserve policy expectations, with Trump's nomination of Waller as Fed Chair causing market turbulence [3][16] - The core advocacy of "rate cuts + aggressive balance sheet reduction" strengthens the dollar, leading to significant market differentiation [3][16] - The market has shifted from being "financially driven" to "fundamentally priced," with increased volatility and a failure of single trend logic [3][16] Group 3 - Domestic recovery and production pace exceed expectations, supporting demand for industrial metals and some energy chemicals [3][16] - High inventory levels in black metals and persistent overcapacity in agricultural products create a foundation for long-short hedging strategies [3][16] Group 4 - Long strategy for PVC includes a low-entry position with a maximum of 6% of total equity, targeting a price range of 4780-4820 points [5][18] - Long strategy for copper involves a strong bullish stance with a maximum of 10% of total equity, targeting a price range of 101000-101800 points [6][19] - Long strategy for alumina suggests a left-side layout with a maximum of 5% of total equity, targeting a price range of 2580-2600 points [7][20] Group 5 - Short strategy for live pigs involves a rebound short with a maximum of 7% of total equity, targeting a price range of 11200-11250 points [8][21] - Short strategy for iron ore suggests a high short position with a maximum of 8% of total equity, targeting a price range of 785-790 points [9][22] Group 6 - The effectiveness of strategies shows a precise match with fundamentals, focusing on "supply-demand gaps + demand recovery" for long positions and "high inventory + supply increase" for short positions [10][23] - The overall position balance is reasonable, with long positions at 21% and short positions at 15%, allowing for hedging space [10][23] Group 7 - Macro variables such as the progress of Waller's nomination, domestic recovery data, and overseas manufacturing recovery will influence long-short logic [12][25] - Potential opportunities for long positions include lithium carbonate and European shipping line pullback, while short positions should be cautious of supply contractions in coking coal and coke [12][25]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call on Agricultural Products and Oilseeds Market Industry Overview - The focus is on the agricultural products sector, particularly oilseeds, in the context of inflation relief and potential investment opportunities in 2026-2027 [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Opportunities**: The agricultural sector, especially in the planting chain (agricultural inputs, seeds, and planting), is expected to experience a dual boost in valuation and profitability in 2026-2027 due to its close relation to food security [2]. - **Livestock Chain**: Within the livestock sector, beef cattle are favored over pig farming, raw milk, and poultry, indicating a shift in investment focus [2]. - **Global Oilseed Production**: A decrease in global soybean and sunflower seed production is anticipated for 2026, while canola production is expected to increase. The U.S. is reducing soybean planting area, leading to tighter supplies of soybeans and sunflower seeds, while canola supply remains ample [1][5]. - **Oil Consumption Trends**: In 2026, industrial consumption of canola oil is expected to recover, while palm oil growth will slow down. Soymeal consumption is projected to increase the most, with palm oil maintaining a strong supply-demand balance [1][6]. Market Dynamics - **Oil Market Volatility**: The oilseed market has been volatile, influenced by U.S. crude oil prices and geopolitical factors. Palm oil is leading the market due to its high production and trade volume, particularly in biodiesel applications [3][5]. - **Palm Oil Production and Exports**: Malaysia's palm oil production in January was below expectations, but exports increased, leading to a stockpile of 3.05 million tons. The market did not react negatively due to prior pricing adjustments [4][8]. - **Geopolitical Impact**: The U.S.-Iran conflict has strengthened crude oil prices, positively affecting oilseed prices. The U.S. biodiesel policy has also contributed to the rebound in soybean oil prices [5][6]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Global Supply Adjustments**: The global supply of soybeans and sunflower seeds is tightening, while canola supply is more relaxed. The overall consumption of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil is expected to grow significantly in 2026 [5][6][7]. - **Price Trends**: As of late January, palm oil prices have risen significantly, with sunflower oil prices remaining strong at approximately $1,300 per ton. The price gap between Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil is around $44, indicating less supply pressure in Malaysia [9][10]. Regional Insights - **China's Import Dynamics**: China's soybean import demand is expected to meet current needs, but there is a projected shortfall in May. The first quarter saw lower import volumes, but the second quarter is expected to be historically high [11][12]. - **India's Oil Demand**: India's palm oil imports are recovering, with significant increases in January and February compared to December [10]. Additional Considerations - **Biodiesel Market**: The U.S. biodiesel processing margins have worsened, while the EU has seen improvements due to lower canola oil prices [15]. - **Domestic Demand Fluctuations**: In China, domestic oil demand has increased due to pre-holiday stocking, but consumption is expected to decline as the holiday approaches [16][22]. - **Market Correlations**: The relationship between oilseed products and crude oil prices is significant, influenced by production costs and macroeconomic factors [23]. Conclusion - The agricultural products and oilseeds market is poised for significant changes in the coming years, with investment opportunities emerging in specific sectors. The interplay of geopolitical factors, domestic demand, and global supply dynamics will be crucial in shaping market trends moving forward [24][25].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cyclical bottom of soybeans has emerged, and the subsequent decline space is limited. It is estimated that soybeans will continue to fluctuate [1] - Corn is expected to have wide - range fluctuations before the Spring Festival. If there is a large decline, consider buying on dips [1] - There is no obvious short - term driver for eggs. Due to a slight improvement in the marginal inventory compared to the second half of last year, it is not recommended to be overly bearish [2] - The darkest time for pigs around the Spring Festival has passed. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the regulation of sows to build a supply - demand balance sheet for the far - month period [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Categories Soybeans - In the Northeast soybean producing area, the spot market for low - protein soybeans is stable. The supply of high - protein soybeans is tight with the feature of high - quality and high - price. The price of 39% protein - content commercial soybeans in some areas is around 2.2 yuan per catty [1] - On February 2, 2026, at 14:00, China Grain Reserves Corporation planned to auction 60,608 tons of soybeans, all of which were sold. The reserve price was 4,050 yuan per ton, the average transaction price was 4,298 yuan per ton, and the premium was 210 - 310 yuan per ton [1] Corn - In the Northeast production area, after entering the twelfth lunar month, farmers' attitude of holding prices has loosened slightly, and the amount of corn on the market has improved slightly. In terms of demand, there is a rigid demand for stocking before the Spring Festival in the feed and deep - processing industries, but due to the relatively high price of dry corn, the inventory days of mainstream feed and deep - processing corn have increased to more than 30 days [1] Eggs - The current inventory of laying hens is still at a relatively high level in recent years. The old - hen culling rate has slowed down, and new - laying hens are gradually entering the market, resulting in the overall production capacity remaining high [2] Pigs - At the end of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%. It was 101.6% of the normal reserve. The national pig slaughter in 2025 was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4%. The national pig inventory at the end of 2025 was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5% [2] - With the arrival of the Spring Festival in February, the pressure on the breeding side to sell pigs may be temporarily reduced. The supply of pigs is expected to decrease significantly. The pre - festival stocking provides short - term support, but the demand will decline after the Spring Festival [3] - In 2025, pig - related enterprises generally declined, with most enterprises suffering heavy losses and their stock prices falling sharply, which also had a certain pessimistic impact on the commodities [3]

长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2026-2-2 长江期货养殖产业月报 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖中心】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 生猪：供需双增，期价低位震荡 目 02 鸡蛋：供应压力仍存，盘面偏弱运行 录 03 玉米：供需相对平衡，盘面震荡运行 01 生猪：供需双增，期价低位震荡 01 生猪：供需双增，期价低位震荡 u 期现货：截至1月30日，全国生猪价格12.21元/公斤，较上月底下跌0.46元/公斤；河南生猪均价12.46元/公斤，较上月底下跌0.72元/公斤，03期货价格收于11220元/吨，较上月 底下跌575元/吨，跌幅4.87%；03合约基差1240元/吨，较上月底跌145元/吨。1月猪价先涨后跌，月均价重心抬升，因12月出栏超预期，1月中上旬企业出栏节奏偏慢，二育进 场和养殖端惜售，叠加中旬降温降雪天气，支撑价格上涨；下旬企业出栏节奏恢复，而春节备货尚早，终端需求不及预期，屠宰量下滑，猪价高位回落。期货主力03在宏观情绪 扰动下，跟随现货先扬后抑，03贴水收窄，基差走弱。 u 供应端：9月官方能 ...

Market Review - The agricultural index increased by 1.82% this week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which fell by 0.44% and the Shenzhen Component Index which dropped by 1.61% [1] - All secondary industries within agriculture saw gains, with planting and feed industries leading at 9.44% and 1.76% respectively [1] - The top 10 gainers were primarily in the planting sector, while the top 10 losers were concentrated in the breeding sector [1] Core Insights Breeding Industry Chain - Pig Prices: The national average price for live pigs is 12.3 yuan/kg, down by 0.67 yuan from last week; the average price for piglets is 28.62 yuan/kg, up by 0.59 yuan [2] - Slaughtering Rates: The operating rate of large-scale slaughterhouses is 39.69%, up by 3.21 percentage points from last week and 12.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Production Capacity: By December 2025, 16 listed pig farming companies are expected to have a total output of 17.9 million pigs, a 2.9% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 1.35% increase year-on-year [2][3] Industry Recovery - The pig farming industry is experiencing a slowdown in capacity reduction, with the number of breeding sows at 39.61 million, down by 116,000 year-on-year [3] - Market pressures and potential policy changes are expected to impact the industry negatively in the near term [3] Individual Stock Valuation - Most listed breeding companies are currently valued at historical lows, indicating significant long-term investment potential [4] - The chicken industry is experiencing price fluctuations, with the average price for broiler chickens at 3.83 yuan/kg, up by 0.17 yuan from last week [4][5] Planting Industry Chain - Seed Industry: The strategic importance of the seed industry is recognized, with ongoing policy optimization and advancements in genetically modified organisms expected to boost seed prices [10] - Grain Prices: Recent demand and planting sentiment have led to price increases in various grains, with corn averaging 2390 yuan/ton and wheat at 2529 yuan/ton [12] Industry Data - The average price for live pigs is 12.3 yuan/kg, down by 0.67 yuan; the average price for broiler chickens is 3.83 yuan/kg, up by 0.17 yuan [13] - The average price for chicken feed remains stable at 3.45 yuan/kg, while the average price for corn is 2390 yuan/ton, reflecting a recent increase [13]

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.01 多家种企业绩回升，看好种植景气回升 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王艳君(分析师) | 021-38674633 | wangyanjun2@gtht.com | S0880520100002 | | 林逸丹(分析师) | 021-38038436 | linyidan@gtht.com | S0880524090001 | | 巩健(分析师) | 021-23185702 | gongjian@gtht.com | S0880525040051 | 本报告导读： 养殖：业绩预告公告完毕，四季度生猪养殖普遍亏损。种植：种子公司业绩回升， 看好种植板块景气上行。宠物: 乖宝品牌抖音销售排名靠前，看好年后展会催化。 投资要点： [种植： Table_Summary] 多家种子公司业绩回升，看好种植板块景气上行。 多家种子公司发布业绩预告，登海种业归母净利润拟增长 62%-80%， 隆平高科拟增长 14%-67%，大北农的种子业务也实现净利润增长， 荃银 ...

Group 1: Company Performance - Mu Yuan Food Co., Ltd. (牧原股份) expects a net profit of 14.7 billion to 15.7 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 12.20% to 17.79% due to lower average selling prices of live pigs and increased production management efficiency [1] - Wen's Food Group Co., Ltd. (温氏股份) anticipates a net profit of 5 billion to 5.5 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year decrease of 40.73% to 46.12% driven by lower sales prices of both live pigs and chickens [2] Group 2: Industry Trends - The overall pig farming industry is experiencing an increase in volume but a decrease in price, leading to a differentiated profitability landscape, with larger enterprises maintaining relative profitability due to scale advantages while smaller operators exit the market [3] - The phenomenon of "旺季不旺" (旺季不旺) in 2026 is attributed to a combination of supply-demand imbalance, weak demand, and cyclical mismatches, with high inventory levels of breeding sows contributing to increased output but lower prices [3] - Analysts predict that pig prices may stabilize and rebound in the second half of 2026, although the extent of the rebound may be limited due to improved production efficiency of sows and preemptive restocking behaviors among producers [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Aonong Bio expects significant improvements in its financial performance and operational efficiency following its restructuring by the end of 2024 [1] - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 579.35 million yuan for 2024 and projects a net profit of between 90 million yuan and 135 million yuan for 2025 [1] - Aonong Bio plans to focus on its strategic initiatives of enhancing feed production, optimizing pig farming, and developing food products to create value for the industry and investors [1] Group 2 - The company is considering implementing measures such as dividends, share buybacks, and acquisitions to enhance its investment value and increase returns for investors, in compliance with legal regulations [1]

农业板块迎来行情催化，农发种业开盘10分钟内封死涨停，相关种业个股同步异动，板块整体表现活 跃。此次行情发酵源于两方面因素，一是农产品涨价预期逐步升温，生猪、大豆等品种价格出现波动上 行迹象；二是年度相关政策进入预热阶段，市场对产业支持政策落地抱有期待。 养殖产业链：涵盖生猪、白鸡、黄鸡等细分领域，生猪产业当前处于产能缓慢去化阶段，能繁母猪存栏 仍略高于正常保有量，冬季非洲猪瘟疫情防控压力上升，行业盈利随猪价短期反弹有所修复；白鸡祖代 引种量维持高位，商品代供给宽松，养殖环节保持微利；黄鸡产能处于历史低位，供给偏紧叠加消费旺 季需求支撑，养殖盈利保持稳定，立华股份、温氏股份等企业凭借成本优势占据市场份额。 本文源自：市场资讯 种植产业链：种业领域政策持续优化，转基因技术产业化稳步推进，优质种子产品迭代升级带动行业结 构调整；粮价受国际市场美联储降息、库消比下降及国内最低收购价政策支撑呈现上涨趋势，玉米、小 麦收购价格震荡上行，种植企业收益随粮价波动调整，苏垦农发等种植主体凭借规模化种植优势，收益 稳定性较强，中长期配置价值凸显。 作者：观察君 动保产业链：兽用化药领域，泰妙菌素、泰万菌素等产品价格处于高位震荡 ...