从产业周期看农业板块投资机会——农业行业 2025 年度 中期投资策略 20250710 摘要 养殖板块正经历从周期成长向周期价值的转变，大型上市公司现金流改 善，行业盈利分化，龙头企业估值处于历史底部，中长期盈利中枢有望 提升，股东回报增加。 宠物食品板块高速成长，营收增速加快，盈利能力提升，头部企业品牌 影响力释放，国产品牌通过配方研发和渠道投入实现高速增长，推荐关 注乖宝宠物和中宠股份。 饲料板块推荐海大集团，上半年饲料销量增长显著，尽管业绩预告可能 低于预期，但公司竞争力和中长期成长性确定，海外市场空间广阔，销 量预计维持 30%以上增幅。 生猪养殖行业规模化程度提高，但非洲猪瘟后资本扩张导致产能过剩。 目前专业化分工明显，大集团专注育种，中小养场专注育肥，下游屠宰 及食品加工厂盈利增加。 重点推荐牧原股份、温氏股份、巨星农牧、神农科技及德康股份等生猪 养殖企业，这些公司成本优势明显，利润兑现度高，自由现金流充裕， 有望实现更高股东回报。 Q&A 2025 年农业板块的中期投资策略是什么？ 从产业生命周期来看，农业板块的投资机会可以分为两个细分领域：养殖产业 链和宠物产业链。养殖产业链近年来经历了规模 ...

2025 年生猪养殖行业的产能恢复情况如何？ 2025 年生猪养殖行业的产能恢复明显偏慢，整个猪价处于下行周期。今年 4 月份能繁母猪存栏量环比持平，5 月份环比小幅上升 0.1%。从 2024 年 4 月到 2025 年 5 月，累计增幅为 1.3%，增幅非常缓慢。根据农业部和统计局的数据， 这一轮周期的恢复速度较慢。 今年（2025 年）生猪价格走势如何？ 今年（2025 年）生猪价格整体处于下行阶段。去年（2024 年）8 月 15 日达 到最高点，为 20.92 元每公斤。今年第 23 周，全国生猪均价降至 14.78 元每 公斤，同比下降 16.7%。最近一段时间，猪价基本在 15 元左右波动，比市场 预期稍高。根据年度策略，今年的猪价不会太差，整个行业会有正常盈利。主 要原因是 2024 年能繁母猪存栏量均值较 2023 年下降了约 4%，理论上推算， 2025 年 1-5 月，20 家上市公司生猪出栏量同比增长 31%。神农、牧 原、温氏和德康等一线公司成本控制领先，成本持续下降。 生猪养殖板块投资逻辑转变，从周期反转向政策管控下的长期高价期预 期，以及对大型企业的确定性偏好。头部公司成本优势明 ...

转债新高，困局何解 20250710 摘要 低价转债数量减少，占比约 3.6%，建议关注中低价策略，如文泰、数 域等，因其具备长期有效性和价格保护。强赎情况下溢价率难以超过 10%，价格突破 130 元较难。 牛市中银行、券商、转债将快速退出，震荡市部分资金撤出，下跌时高 价转债溢价率压缩。当前阶段性高位宜选弹性且不强赎标的，如文泰、 数域，或具安全底部保护标的。 政策驱动最终反映在二级市场，光伏反内卷标的如金科、金奥、金能价 格修复。建筑建材央国企如万青和季东评级高但破净，可从政府弹性入 手。有色、生猪养殖周期行业如希望转、牧原和温氏值得关注。 推荐中低价策略的文泰和数域，具弹性和价格保护。政策驱动下关注光 伏（金科、金奥）及建筑建材（万青、季东）。周期行业考虑生猪养殖 （希望转、牧原、温氏），现金流良好且正股具弹性。 筛选低价转债选剩余期限长、短期不强赎的次新券，如安吉转债。或选 短时间内不强赎标的，溢价率将攀升。PCB 产业链受益于算力需求、关 税缓和预期及铜价上涨。 Q&A 近期转债市场的表现如何？有哪些策略值得关注？ 转债指数近期创下新高，个券价格受到一定压制，后续弹性可能不如其他大类 资产。转债的 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the rising popularity of blue crayfish, specifically the Australian freshwater crayfish, in Changshu, which is being marketed as a premium alternative to traditional crayfish [1][2] - The blue crayfish is larger and has a higher meat yield compared to regular crayfish, with prices being twice as high but offering three to five times the meat yield [1][2] - Local restaurants, such as Wang Si Restaurant and Changshu International Hotel, have begun to incorporate blue crayfish into their menus, reflecting a growing trend in the "crayfish economy" [1][2] Group 2 - The blue crayfish is cultivated locally by Suzhou Hengyang Aolong Agricultural Technology Co., which has developed proprietary breeding techniques and established seven seedling bases nationwide, achieving annual sales of over 3,000 tons and exceeding 100 million yuan in revenue [2] - The collaboration between local restaurants and the crayfish supplier aims to enhance the value of local agricultural products and provide unique dining experiences for both residents and visitors [2][3] - Continuous innovation in dish offerings and feedback loops between restaurants and suppliers are being emphasized to improve the quality of the blue crayfish and adapt to market demands [3]

销售情况简报 一、2025年6月销售情况 山东益生种畜禽股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）2025 年 6 月 白羽肉鸡苗销售数量 6,071.69 万只，销售收入 12,945.74 万元，同 比变动分别为 17.68%、-13.58%，环比变动分别为 7.26%、-25.54%。 益生909小型白羽肉鸡苗销售数量698.23万只，销售收入500.80 万元，同比变动分别为0.70%、-41.06%,环比变动分别为-3.01%、- 公司2025年6月种猪销售数量10,125头，销售收入2,493.80万元， 同比变动分别为490.38%、460.10%，环比变动分别为-6.67%、-3.05%。 上述财务数据均未经审计，可能与公司定期报告披露的数据存在 一定差异，仅作为阶段性财务数据供投资者参考。 二、原因说明 单价同比降低，故 2025 年 6 月公司益生 909 小型白羽肉鸡苗销售收 入同比减少。 证券代码：002458 证券简称：益生股份 公告编号：2025-049 山东益生种畜禽股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容真实、准确和完整， 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 销售收入同比大 ...

证券代码：002157 证券简称：正邦科技 公告编号：2025--037 江西正邦科技股份有限公司 亏损：27,010.68 万元 后的净利润 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、本期业绩预计情况 | ?亏损 | ? | 扭亏为盈 | | ?同向上升 | | ?同向下降 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目 | | | | 本报告期 | | | 上年同期 | | | | 盈利： | 19,000 | 万元– | 21,000 | 万元 | | 归属于上市公司股 亏损：12,749.22 万元 东的净利润 比上年同期增长：249.03% – 264.72% 盈利：5,000 万元– 7,000 万元 扣除非经常性损益 计提预期信用损失及对部分区域存货计提减值准备，共计金额约 2 亿元； 抵债产生的重整收益。 四、风险提示及其他说明 比上年同期增长：118.51% –125.92% 基本每股收益 盈利：0.0205 元/股– 0.0227 元/股 亏损：0.0138 元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The development of the crayfish industry in Hubei, particularly in Qianjiang, is accelerating due to government initiatives and infrastructure improvements, establishing Qianjiang crayfish as a leading brand in China [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Economic Impact - The comprehensive output value of Qianjiang crayfish has surpassed 87 billion yuan, with an annual trading volume of 800,000 tons, accounting for 60% of Hubei's total output and 25% of the national output [1]. - The "Xia Tiao" policy has designated "Qianjiang Crayfish" as Hubei's sole regional public brand, promoting a unified marketing strategy across the province [1]. - The establishment of over 4,000 Qianjiang crayfish brand stores and more than 10,000 restaurants using Qianjiang crayfish ingredients and cooking standards has expanded market reach [1]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Logistics Development - A supply chain platform with an annual transaction value exceeding 16 billion yuan has been established, involving 1,094 enterprises and 138,700 registered users [2]. - The "Xia Gu Express" logistics service platform and the only crayfish logistics big data center in the country have been created to enhance the supply chain from production to consumption [2]. - The cold chain logistics delivery system allows for delivery to all provincial capitals within 4 to 14 hours, with a 94% average freshness rate for crayfish [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Price Trends - Seasonal price fluctuations are normal, with prices typically dropping during the rice planting season (May-June) and rising during peak consumption (June-August) [3]. - The introduction of "four seasons of crayfish" technology is expected to stabilize prices by extending the supply window [3]. - A survey indicated that 69.4% of crayfish farmers reported stable or increased earnings compared to the previous year, with an average net income of 2,659.2 yuan per mu, reflecting a 9% year-on-year growth [3].

另外，黑龙江省还将围绕践行大食物观、构建多元化食物供给体系，以畜牧、水产、蔬菜、水果、食用 菌等种养殖理论、生产技术、质量安全、绿色发展等知识技能为主要内容，结合地方农业特色，开展重 要农产品生产经营主体能力提升培育，重点面向养殖大县开展肉牛、奶牛、生猪、大鹅、冷水鱼、寒地 小龙虾等养殖培训。 与此同时，将围绕支撑农业机械化全程全面高质量发展和提升农机作业服务质量，聚焦主要粮油作物耕 种管收机械化作业环节，着力培养一批高素质农机手、农业生产无人机飞手。重点围绕机械化措施促进 粮油作物大面积单产提升重点环节以及机收减损等，因地制宜开展农机手技能提升培训。其中，面向专 业农机手、农机大户和农机作业服务组织带头人，突出粮油作物高质量机播(含水稻机械化移栽)、高效 飞防植保、机收减损、农机抗灾救灾、低空经济场景应用和农机安全生产等技术技能，突出实操实训和 作业演练。通过竞争性立项，安排26个县(市、区)开展农机手技能提升专题培训班。粮油和重要农产品 生产经营主体提升工程重点与生产技能型培训相结合。 根据《实施方案》，黑龙江省将围绕农村一二三产业融合发展和乡村新产业、新业态的人才需求，突出 农业与科技、文化、教育、旅游 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 07 月 10 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 F3013727 投资咨询证号： 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3609 | 3616 | -7 | 01-05 | 199 | 207 | -8 | | JD05 | 3410 | 3409 | 1 | 05-09 | -168 | -187 | 19 | | JD09 | 3578 | 3596 | -18 | 09-01 | -31 | -20 | -11 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.61 | 1.62 | 0.00 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.21 ...

Group 1 - The core idea of the articles revolves around the "anti-involution" policies aimed at addressing excessive competition in various industries, particularly focusing on the need for regulatory measures to improve product quality and eliminate low-price competition [1][2][3] - The "anti-involution" policy has evolved through several stages, starting from the initial discussions in 2024 to the latest measures proposed in 2025, indicating a comprehensive approach to tackle the issue of irrational competition [2][3] - The macroeconomic impact of "involution" includes a downward spiral of prices leading to reduced corporate profits and consumer spending, necessitating a structured approach to reverse this trend and stimulate economic growth [2][3] Group 2 - Industries expected to break the "involution" cycle include new energy sectors such as solar and electric vehicles, where technological innovation is seen as a key driver for differentiation and competition [4][5] - Traditional cyclical industries like steel and cement are also highlighted, with a focus on supply-side reforms to improve capacity utilization and financial stability [5] - The consumer manufacturing sector is encouraged to enhance quality and reduce costs through digitalization, particularly in livestock farming, to mitigate the effects of cyclical price fluctuations [5] Group 3 - The stock market is anticipated to experience a shift due to "anti-involution" measures, with potential improvements in profitability for certain sectors if price stability and capacity reduction are achieved [6][7] - The current market phase is characterized by policy-driven expectations, with future stages involving capacity clearing and profit recovery, similar to past supply-side reforms [6][7] - Investment strategies should focus on supply-side optimization, technological advancements, and market expansion opportunities, indicating a structural shift in the market dynamics [7][8]