分析人士指出，"以旧换新"等政策支持与"618"购物节的提前启动形成合力，共同推动了5月社零的快速增长。国家统计局数据显示，5月限额以上 单位家用电器和音像器材类、通讯器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类商品零售额分别增长53.0%、33.0%、30.5%、25.6%。 东吴证券分析师芦哲表示，社零超预期，一部分原因在于提前启动的"618 购物节"和"国补"叠加，另一部分原因可能在于"抢国补"。"5-6月诸多地 区传出国补暂停的说法，尽管很多省份进行辟谣，但可能还是有不少消费者在此期间抢时间购买以旧换新产品。"芦哲在研报中写道。 记者 王珍 5月中国经济运行总体平稳，虽然投资继续放缓，但消费零售表现亮眼，工业生产也较有韧性。分析人士预计，二季度GDP同比增速有望继续达到 5%以上。 但他们同时指出，国内需求扩大内生动能尚需增强，叠加下半年外贸环境不确定性仍在，稳增长政策进一步发力的概率相对上升。监管层或在三 季度推出新一轮增量政策，以进一步激发市场活力。 5月份一系列数据中，社零表现尤为亮眼。当月社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.4%，比上月加快1.3个百分点，创2024年初以来的最高水平。 国家统计局数据显示，1-5 ...

Economic Overview - In May, the national economy demonstrated resilience, maintaining overall stability and progress, with stable growth in production demand and a generally stable employment situation [1][3] - The combination of policy effects has shown positive results in stabilizing the economy and promoting development [1] Industrial Performance - In May, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year-on-year, indicating strong resilience and growth potential [2] - The high-end manufacturing sector saw significant growth, with the added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 9% and 8.6% respectively [2] - The digital economy's integration has accelerated, with the added value of digital product manufacturing growing by 9.1%, significantly outpacing overall industrial growth [2] - Green production is improving, with production of new energy vehicles and lithium-ion batteries for vehicles increasing by 31.7% and 52.5% respectively [2] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods in May increased by 6.4% year-on-year, reflecting enhanced consumer vitality [4] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has shown continued effectiveness, with significant year-on-year growth in retail sales of home appliances and communication equipment [4] - The tourism sector has also seen a boost, with domestic travel during the "May Day" holiday increasing by 6.4% year-on-year [4] Trade Performance - In May, China's total goods import and export volume grew by 2.7%, with exports increasing by 6.3%, demonstrating resilience in foreign trade [7] - Despite a decline in trade with the US, trade with ASEAN, the EU, and countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative continued to grow, showcasing the diversification of China's foreign trade [7] - Private foreign trade enterprises have shown strong market adaptability, with their import and export volume increasing by 7% year-on-year in the first five months [7]

关联内容 国家统计局答21：无人机、智能车载设备增长强劲 21世纪经济报道记者周潇枭 北京报道 6月16日，国家统计局发布5月经济数据。 从5月经济数据来看，我国出口依然维持相当韧性，表现更亮眼的在于消费品以旧换新政策支持下的消 费在加快回升。不过，外部不确定性仍然较大，国内房地产投资依然在下行通道中，扩内需、稳楼市政 策仍需继续发力。5月生产端的数据表现更为稳定，5月规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.8%，全国服务 业生产指数同比增长6.2%，经济延续平稳增长态势。 6月13日，国务院常务会议明确指出，要对全国房地产已供土地和在建项目进行摸底，进一步优化现有 政策，更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳。另外，今年用以支持消费品以旧换新的3000亿元超长期特别 国债，目前已经下达1600亿元，剩余的约1400亿元资金也会加快下达。 政策推动消费加快回升 去年1500亿元"国补"资金收效良好，今年3000亿元"国补"资金的政策效应仍在持续释放。5月份，社会 消费品零售总额同比增长6.4%，比上月加快1.3个百分点，为2024年以来月度最高增速。 具体来看，受"国补"政策带动，5月份，限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材类、通信 ...

Economic Performance - In May, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly exceeding market expectations[2] - The service industry production index rose by 6.2% year-on-year in May, indicating positive service sector performance[13] Consumer Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in May grew by 6.4% year-on-year, up from 5.1% in April, driven by the early "618" shopping festival[19] - Major categories such as home appliances and communication equipment saw significant growth, with home appliance sales increasing by 53.0% year-on-year[23] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 3.7% year-on-year from January to May, below the market expectation of 4.0%[4] - Infrastructure investment increased by 5.6% year-on-year, while real estate development investment declined by 10.7%[4] Employment and Labor Market - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in May was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a stable employment situation[6] - The job market remains sensitive to external economic conditions, with policies aimed at supporting key demographics such as graduates and migrant workers[6] Market Outlook - The second quarter is expected to see a slight economic slowdown compared to the first quarter, with potential non-linear characteristics due to external uncertainties[1] - A dual bull market in stocks and bonds is anticipated in the second half of the year, supported by easing U.S.-China trade relations and risk mitigation funds[1]

6月16日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍5月份国民经济运行情况。从主要指标来看，工业、服务业、消 费、投资等均保持增长。外贸顶住压力，保持平稳增长。 其中，消费和服务业两项增速比上月有所加快，显示出在一系列促消费政策带动下，国内消费潜力得到 释放。工业增加值平稳较快增长，固定资产投资继续扩大。房地产继续朝止跌回稳的方向迈进。 全年即将过半，上半年GDP将于下月中旬揭晓。"作为数据生产者，又来进行预测，本身是存在一定矛 盾的。"国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖表示，统计部门一般不做这方面预 测，但从整个经济运行情况来看，全年经济仍有较好支撑，上半年有望保持总体平稳、稳中有进的发展 态势。 宏观政策持续发力，为经济平稳运行提供支撑 主要指标中，消费和服务业两项增速均比上月有所加快。5月份，社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.4%， 增速比上月加快1.3个百分点。全国服务业生产指数同比增长6.2%，比上月加快0.2个百分点。 "从5月份相关指标看，宏观政策持续发力，为经济平稳运行提供了重要支撑。"付凌晖表示。 以消费品以旧换新政策为例，在政策带动下，5月份，家用电器和音像器材类、通讯器材类、文化办公 用品 ...

Group 1 - The macro policies have been effective in enhancing market vitality and improving corporate profitability and expectations [2] - In the first four months of the year, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2] - In April alone, profits grew by 3%, which is an acceleration of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2] Group 2 - In May, the retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment, communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture saw year-on-year growth between 25.6% and 53%, contributing 1.9 percentage points to the total retail sales of consumer goods [1] - Investment in equipment and tools increased by 17.3% in the first five months, contributing 2.3 percentage points to overall investment growth, with a contribution rate of 63.6% [1] - The production of industries such as lithium-ion battery manufacturing, shipbuilding, and boiler manufacturing saw significant year-on-year increases of 28.6%, 12.8%, and 11.8% respectively in May [1]

国家统计局发布的最新统计数据显示，5月份，市场销售明显回升，以旧换新相关商品快速增长。国家 统计局新闻发言人付凌晖：5月份，社会消费品零售总额41326亿元，同比增长6.4%，比上月加快1.3个 百分点；环比增长0.93%。基本生活类和部分升级类商品销售增势较好，消费品以旧换新政策持续显 效，限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材类、通信器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类商品零售额分别增长 53.0%、33.0%、30.5%、25.6%。1—5月份，实物商品零售额49878亿元，增长6.3%，占社会消费品零售 总额的比重为24.5%。1—5月份，服务零售额同比增长5.2%。(央视新闻) ...

Core Viewpoint - In May, retail sales of household appliances, audio-visual equipment, communication devices, cultural and office supplies, and furniture showed significant year-on-year growth, contributing to an overall increase in social consumer goods retail sales [1] Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 25.6% to 53% year-on-year [1] - The combined growth of these categories contributed 1.9 percentage points to the total retail sales of consumer goods [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - Investment in equipment and tools saw a growth of 17.3% in the first five months [1] - This investment trend contributed 2.3 percentage points to overall investment growth, with a contribution rate of 63.6% [1]

国家统计局16日发布数据显示，5月份，消费品以旧换新政策持续显效，限额以上单位家用电器和音 像器材类、通讯器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类商品零售额分别增长53.0%、33.0%、30.5%、 25.6%。 ...

国家统计局：5月份家电和音像器材类商品零售额同比增长53% 智通财经6月16日电，国家统计局16日发布数据显示，5月份，消费品以旧换新政策持续显效，限额以上 单位家用电器和音像器材类、通讯器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类商品零售额分别增长53.0%、 33.0%、30.5%、25.6%。 ...